Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - PREDICTION: Indianapolis Colts MUST Take Advantage of Battered Washington Commanders in London

Starting point is 00:00:00 Can the Indianapolis Colts extend their winning streak to two early on in the 26th season? Let's get to it. You are Locked on Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to Locked on Colts. I'm Zach Hicks. That's Jake Arthur.

Starting point is 00:00:28 And today we are breaking down Colts and Commanders for a final time before Sunday's early game, 9.30 Eastern Time. They're playing out in London this week, so nice and early game. You guys can get done with your football watching by 1 o'clock. But our final show here again, before we break down everything that's going on in this game, we're going to talk about our final thoughts, our feelings, our bold predictions in segment three. In segment two, we're going to talk about Colts defense versus a really banged-up commander's offense. But we're going to start off the show talking all about the Colts offense versus aggressive,

Starting point is 00:01:02 good front seven of the commander's defense. And all that is going to be talked about here in just a moment. But first, we are brought to you by Fandul. Make the most rewarding season ever with Fandle Awards Club every week. Check out Fandul app to see what is waiting for you. All right, Jake, some injury notes, though, on Colts Offense versus Scander's defense. A lot of question marks at the Colts wide receiver room this week with Keenan Allen dealing with a groin injury. He is officially questionable.

Starting point is 00:01:29 Ashton Doolin, who missed what, seven straight practices, returned to full practice the last two days. now he is up to questionable as well for the Colts. Also, we could kind of throw Darius Slayton in there as like a questionable because we don't know if he's going to be active in this one. I know he's not efficiently listed as that, but we still don't know what the plan is for him. And then for the commander's defense, Nick Cross, former Indianapolis Colts defender,

Starting point is 00:01:52 now they're starting strong safety. He is still out with an illness that he suffered in week two that he was hospitalized for. So hopefully Cross is, you know, on the right track to getting that right. but we're relatively healthy on both sides of the football when it comes to this for the Colts, or for the Colts offense and the commander's defense. So what's your takeaway, Jake? What do you think is going to happen with this type of matchup on Sunday?

Starting point is 00:02:15 Yeah, I think it's super interesting. I think Doolin is a big boost if he's able to come back, obviously not just for offense, but special teams as well. We've seen a lot more Laquan Treadwell recently. He even played the most snaps of any other receiver last week. But he's obviously had a very limited. role in that offense. He's been really just used as like that late game big play guy each of the last couple weeks with one reception. But Doolin, I think, would be slightly more involved in the passing game,

Starting point is 00:02:47 not not basely, but a little more. And then in special teams, that that's kind of an X factor in the kick return game. Teams are not kicking to Seth McGowan very much. They're going to have to pick their poison because you could say Ashton Doolan isn't even more dangerous kickoff returner than Anthony gould. So teams are going to have to kick it off to a dangerous kick returner no matter. So I like that if Doolin is able to come back. I'm curious to see what the validity of Allen's injury is because the Colts just did a walk through this morning Friday. So the injury report is a projection. He rests on the first day of the week a bit and he was always limited. So I wonder if this is precautionary because he's a 14-year vet. He's an older guy. Or if, like, legitimately,

Starting point is 00:03:36 he may not be able to go and is more of, like, a game time decision. So obviously, some, some pretty, um, some pretty hefty, um, factors into the Colts passing game, already missing Alec Pierce. It could be an instance where Jonathan Taylor, even though it's kind of a staunch front seven from Washington, uh, You might see him get involved, like in the screen game, since they're so aggressive. Second highest blitz rate in the NFL behind the Vikings. You get all those guys running forward, maybe gives Taylor a little extra space in the screen game. Yeah, I think this is going to be a game that's going to be tough sledding for the rushing attack.

Starting point is 00:04:17 The commanders, not only do they have a lot of talent in their front seven, but they're very aggressive. A lot of run blitzes, a lot of getting guys downhill. Sunny Styles looks like the sunny styles we expected coming into the NFL. Frank Yulu is back. Darren Payne is out there. It's a good front seven. Odafe Owe, Kelevan, Chison. These are good players in that front seven.

Starting point is 00:04:39 So I think that they're going to be a tough matchup when it comes to running the football. Like the Colts will still be able to get theirs. Luckily, Moe Alley Cox is able to go in this one, so that helps the running game a little bit. But I do think this is going to be a game that has to be carried by the Colts passing attack. The commanders have really struggled to corral opposing passing attacks this season. Their secondary has been very up and down to. say the least. And because they blitz so much, it does leave these secondary players on islands quite a bit, which we've seen the Colts take advantage of the last two weeks with Josh Downs

Starting point is 00:05:09 being the main target for this Colts offense. So I do think this is going to have to be a game that's won by Daniel Jones in the passing game. I think they're fully capable of doing it. We've seen a lot of glances the last two weeks of the passing game kind of leading the offense. It's really just been weighed down by the turnovers from the passing game, four turnovers from Daniel Jones the last two weeks when, again, 19 to 23 for 189 yards against the Blitz, but when you're having these four turnovers mixed in there, that is where the concerns certainly come. Not that all those turnovers are come against the Blitz, but against a blitz-heavy approach, like with Kansas City and then a very good front four with the Texans.

Starting point is 00:05:47 So I do think this is going to be a game. The Colts passing tack needs to lead the way. I would love to have both Ash and Dool and Duel and Derry Slaten out there because just the impact of having more speed on the field would be big for this Colts team. but overall I do think this is going to be a big Josh Downs game and I think that they're going to rely on him to not only be that that man coverage and just Blitz Beater, but also to be someone that can separate against the secondary

Starting point is 00:06:10 that has struggled quite a bit this season. Yeah, you just kind of salivate when you think of the Josh Downs versus Mike Stainrestil matchup. Stenristle is, I mean, he's been scaled back a little bit because of how much he struggled early in the season. And Downs has been matchup proof so far. Now, whether that's in the slot or out wide, He's just been able to get a ton of separation.

Starting point is 00:06:30 He's been able to win most matchups that he's in. So he's been, as you wrote earlier in the week, he's been basically the Colts easy button in the passing offense. So I'm really interested to see how that goes. Maybe the evolution of how they use Tyler Warren. That could be another thing where maybe those screens do work this week if there's extra defenders coming up in the box and they're getting into the back field.

Starting point is 00:06:56 The Colts delay things just a little bit. What hasn't worked through the first couple weeks, maybe they could hit on some of the yak opportunities with Warren on screens this week. But as you mentioned with Slayton and Doolin, if both of those guys are able to go, this certainly is the type of matchup where downfield shots can be super fruitful for them. Yeah, I really want to add on to that because I think you have an opportunity here where a team that likes to blitz but doesn't really have,

Starting point is 00:07:25 like when the Kansas City of cheese like to blitz the Colts in week two, right? like their corners are very, very good. Noel Williams, Mansour Delane, even Ligerius Sneed, who's probably their weak link out there, is still a pretty solid corner, right? Where the commanders, I mean, Amick Robinson, Robertsons had a good season this year,

Starting point is 00:07:41 but I don't think I would say he's as talented as a little bit. Yeah, I don't think he's as talented as those guys. So when the commanders want to blitz, I think the Colts have an opportunity where you can go max protection, and you could really have just like three guys running out in the formation, and hopefully you can find space with like, okay, Downs is working against this guy on one side. You're having the speed of Slayton on the outside against someone else,

Starting point is 00:08:02 and then you have your checkdown option. I think you can find some big plays with some of those max protect shot plays that they can build in if the commanders are going to be so heavy against the run and so involved with their blitz on defense. So I think there's going to be opportunities to create some big plays. The Colts were able to create a lot last week against a good Texans defense. So I think it's going to be there. And this is going to be a game where even though they're going against Marcus Marcos,

Starting point is 00:08:27 on the other side, I still want to see this offense, like, get going and put up like 30 points in this game. I think that should be the goal for this one, because I'm not fully convinced the Colts defense is going to stop the commander's offense, but I do feel good about the match of the Colts offense has here. So put up some points, get in the red zone quite a bit, take care of the football, control the game, and get out of London with a victory. Washington defense blitzing well over 40% of the time, but just five sacks. Kind of tells you that, that they have to blitz in order to generate any sort of pass rush. Even though I know you said some of those are on blitzes as well,

Starting point is 00:09:03 that's still the ratio there of blitz percentage to actually getting home for sacks is pretty low. Yeah, yeah, for sure. So we'll see how that all plays out. But coming up, we're going to talk about the other side, Colts defense versus Marcus Marriota in the commander's offense. Support for today's episode comes from Indeed, sponsored jobs. When workplace chaos hits and you need the right hire, Indeed, sponsor jobs helps connect employers with candidates who match specific needs like skills,

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Starting point is 00:12:12 All righty guys, we are back with our final breakdown before Colts and commanders on Sunday. Before we get to the Colts defense, though, don't forget to check out the Everydair Club for perks of being a loyal fan of this show. Get ad-free episodes and a group chat with us and other fans of the show. all excess members also get a text line to Jake and myself and receive bonus content as well.

Starting point is 00:12:31 So tap the link in the show notes. I'll go to lockdowncultz.supercast.com. So quite a few injuries when it comes to the commander's offense versus Colts defense. Jake, the Colts defense is pretty healthy going into this game. No notable injuries there. But for the commander's offense, they will be without star quarterback Jaden Daniels, star right guard, Sam Cosmy. Terry McLaurin also popped up on the injury report, questionable with a hamstring injury.

Starting point is 00:12:55 and then also Rashad White, their backup running back is out with a shoulder injury. So we'll see the status of Terry McLaurin. His hamstring injury happened in Friday's practice. And again, we don't know what the severity of that's going to be. We'll see if it's serious enough for him not to participate. But a lot of injuries on this commander's offense, but hey, last week, even though they only had like four yards per play against the Seahawks defense, they put up 30 points with a lot of these same injuries against a very good Seahawks team. So offensive coordinator, David Blow is one of the youngest coordinators in the league.

Starting point is 00:13:28 He's doing some really fun things with that offense. But the Colts, you know, they better be ready, even though this is a pretty, like, injury, injured offense that we're seeing with the commanders. This defense better be ready for a lot of fireworks from the commanders. Yeah, this seems like kind of a back against the wall type of situation where I don't want to call them desperate, but like in other situations you see kind of like desperate. teams just kind of throw a caution to the wind and get real weird with it with their play calls. They're more open to trick plays or just like misdirection type of things. That could be what we're looking at here with David Blow. Again, kind of, you know, he's got the history in Detroit.

Starting point is 00:14:09 So he kind of comes from that whole tree where they're real ballsy with their play calling. Real creative as well. But, you know, no Jaden Daniels. So you got Marcus Mariot out there at quarterback. Sam Cosmy, they're starting right guard. McLaurin, they can absorb that hit a little more if he doesn't play or even if he's scaled back because Stefan Diggs has gotten off to a really solid start in the first few games. But Rashad White, I think that one really stinks for Mariota in particular because that's their past catching back. And if you look at the yards per attempt for both Daniels and Marioita, it's pretty low so far.

Starting point is 00:14:46 Like they're playing kind of efficiently and their touchdown to turnover ratio is awesome, but the yardage is not really there. So I think not having a guy like white, and definitely if McLauran is affected in any way, I think that's pretty big. And you clearly have to look at advantage Colts defense when you've got Soss Gardner and Mooney Ward out there. And then if Justin Wally, if he is kind of turning the corner and legitimately starting to play better than he did in the first couple weeks,

Starting point is 00:15:16 then I think the Colts have the clear advantage. Yeah, I think the big step for this game is going to be, can the run defense continue off what they built against the Houston Texans, or is that more to do with just the Texans run game being atrocious, right? Because, I mean, look, the Texans run game is not going to be very good, but I don't know if they're that bad, right? Like, the Colts really held their running backs down to nothing in that game. So we're going to really see if this run defense is for real.

Starting point is 00:15:42 They used a lot of run blitzes last week. They had a lot of players step up in the front seven. The secondary guys were run fitting pretty well. I liked what I saw from the Colts defense in that regard. but if Bill, they're running back, Bill Merritt, is able to really get going, that's where they could really get into some trouble as a defense, because then you get into these run-pass situations with Marriota, where Marriota is an efficient quarterback.

Starting point is 00:16:03 He's not overly explosive, but he's efficient, and he can find those outlets if he, again, is in plus situations like third and one, third and two, he can find outlets and get first downs. So I think for the Colts, it's going to be stopping the run game first and then limit the explosives. As long as they can limit explosives, and slow down the run game, make Marriota have to complete 10 passes on a drive to get a touchdown, right? Like make him have to be perfect because even though he is a veteran in this league and he's played a

Starting point is 00:16:30 long time and he's done some good things in this league, I'm not trying to downplay Marcus Marietta. It is hard for a backup quarterback to continually string together really good moments without having that big negative that set you back, right? Because so much of the bend don't break defensive style is the fact of can you go 12 to 15 plays on us without having a penalty, without taking a sack, without having a bad drop, because those things can set you back behind. And I think that's more of a good strategy against a backup quarterback than a starter because there's so many things that are different with a backup, like cadence, like just making sure everyone's on the same rhythm, like everyone's like on the same page with certain protection calls

Starting point is 00:17:10 and stuff. Like those are the things that backups make more mistakes than starters because they just haven't been getting the same reps. So I think if they can limit the explosives, don't let the commanders get a three-play touchdown drive, four-play touchdown drive, right? Because that can be totally back-breaking. But limit those explosives, make them have to go the length of the field and slow down the running game. Don't have it be like the first two weeks where it's like a 14% explosive run rate against you.

Starting point is 00:17:34 Keep that down low. And I think the Colts defense has a good shot in this game. Also another thing I want to see, though, too, Jake, the Colts have one force turnover through the first three weeks right now on defense. Let's take the football away. Like, let's get a turnover or two. So much of this year has been the Colts offense, putting the Colts defense in bad situations with dumb turnovers. They're what, they're minus four, I think, in the turnover differential so far this year.

Starting point is 00:17:58 Let's get the ball in plus territory for the Colts offense once or twice in this game. I would love to see a couple defensive turnovers or at least one in this game to really help out the offense. So I think, obviously, again, the big keys are going to be limiting explosives, but let's get a takeaway in this one. Yeah, I think so, because is it just the buck? or fumble recovery at this point? I think that's the only one this year. Yeah, we're Latu and Key hit Jackson in the backfield. So none in the last two weeks. No turnovers for the week one. Okay. Yeah. Well, yeah. So that's that's definitely something that needs to turn the corner because that's that's what I said preseason would be like their defining trait of the

Starting point is 00:18:38 season. Like if they were going to be good at anything defensively, it was going to be taking the ball away because Cam Bynum and A.J. Halsey logically, that's always been their, you know, they're plus and then you're going to have to blitz more because you're not, you don't have much of a four-man brush, which can hurry quarterbacks up, make Aaron throws, and then Saus Gardner and Mooney Ward have always been very good when it comes to past breakups. Yeah. So I still think it's there. I'm a little surprised it hasn't been, especially with how much they've been on the field,

Starting point is 00:19:09 not so much last week, but they're on the field a lot, the first two weeks. Two good quarterbacks the first two weeks, though. They limited those turnovers and, you know, Colts didn't take advantage. of the one or two opportunities they had against them. Yeah. I do think kind of the key is just making Marcus Mario to be the key of this offense, though. Their rushing attack has been very productive overall, like in terms of actual yards per game, but their yards per carry is much more middle of the road.

Starting point is 00:19:37 It's like 4.1 yards per carry, but I think they're top five overall yards per game. So if you can control the clock a little bit and not let them be methodical with running the ball and converting those third and ones. Like if you can get them into more third and longs where they can't really run the ball like they want to make Marcus Mariotta be the focal point, then I think that's what you really want to do defensively. And like sauce and Mooney, I don't think Mooney got a pick last year either.

Starting point is 00:20:09 It seems increasingly unlikely that those guys continue to play, especially play together and neither of them have an interception. That's just kind of bonkers to me. Like something's got to give it a certain point. Yeah, we'll see. We'll see if the Colts can finally get a turnover this week. Coming up, though, we're going to talk about our overall predictions over, like, bowl takes in this one, where we lean with this game.

Starting point is 00:20:32 We're going to close it all out in the final segment in just a second. The NFL is full of games that you plan for all year, but sometimes the best memories come from the games that you almost missed. Game time makes it easy to find tickets to NFL matchups that you want to see with prices that include fees up front so you don't have some big mystery and a big negative shock there at the end. You could browse games, see a panoramic view from your seat before you buy, and you can get tickets to just a couple of taps. Plus, zone deals let you choose the section and let GameTime choose the seats to help you save even more.

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Starting point is 00:22:15 More. Every week, check the Fanduel app to see what's waiting for you. Right now, the culture, three and a half point favorites against the Washington Commanders. The first time being favorites this season with an over under of 47.5. I'm guessing when you see Jake and I have predictions will, we might go a little over. Actually, I'll go over that over under. Jake will go under. So we'll talk about that in just a moment. Make this your most rewarding season ever with Fandual. Visit fandle. com to get started. All right, Jake, so I kind of just introed our last segment. there in the middle of that fan duel read. What do we have prediction-wise?

Starting point is 00:22:51 Because I realized I went much higher with my score than you did. I thought we were both going to be on the same page with this. So give your reasoning here. You have the Colts winning, but you have it being more of a low-scoring game. It's the London of it all for me. If it was a Lucas Oil, mine would be much more reflective of what yours is. But I have the Colts winning 20 to 13. Number one, in the words of Sabrina Carpenter, essentially, don't make me look stupid,

Starting point is 00:23:16 Colts because I'm picking you to win and I don't feel good about it. I only know the espresso song. And so I was like, how is he going to fit espresso into this? I forget the name of whatever song I'm referencing. But you know what I mean? So no, it's because it's all in London. There are injuries really on both sides of it. That could really take effect.

Starting point is 00:23:36 And I still count Alec Pierce as part of that, even though he's on IR. But it just for Washington, if they're able to get the run game going a little bit, you know, and then capitalize with Stefan Diggs. Again, he's been off to a really, really hot start. Chigo Quanko is back. I think that's pretty decent for them as well.

Starting point is 00:23:57 Those are the kind of guys I think Mariotta would really lean on. But overall, I just think they're a little bit too short-handed right now, a little bit too hamstrung, no pun intended by injuries. I do like the Colts better, I think, last week with them being able to finally get some chunk play. not necessarily big shots, but chunk plays in the past game. I think that was really encouraging to see. And then just some fundamental things on the defensive side of the ball that I would like to think are signs of progress. They tackled better.

Starting point is 00:24:30 It didn't seem like there was many miscommunications in the secondary. Now, there might still be a talent discrepancy at times, sure. But right now I think the Colts have better talent and they're healthier. And I just think that's going to make a difference. And since it's overseas, I think it'll be slightly lower scoring. I think that's just a little disruptive. Again, these teams do have against each other's defenses in particular, have the potential to put up fireworks.

Starting point is 00:25:02 Like last year of the Colts, it was 3125 Atlanta. It could be something just like that. But, you know, I think with their injuries and just the disruption of all that travel, I think it'll be a little more on the lower scoring side. Yeah, I could see that just because the fields are gross over there, and that's going to contribute to it. But I just look at these two defenses and I don't really have faith in either of them. I think, like, if they can get takeaways, their fine defenses,

Starting point is 00:25:32 but even last week, the commanders had three takeaways and allowed 30 points. I know it's against the Seahawks, right? But it's against the Seahawks team that doesn't have a running game whatsoever, right? And only really the one pass target. So they still have 30 points. be a team with no run game but use a first round pick on a running back. Yeah, that's true. Price has been rough to start the season, to say the least.

Starting point is 00:25:53 So, yeah, like, it's been a struggle for this community. They're still trying to learn this new style. I like the approach that Durante Jones is bringing. It's just not fully there yet. They're still trying to figure some things out. So I think this is going to be a game where I think the Colts are going to be able to throw the ball fairly well in this one because Josh Downs, because more speed back in the offense.

Starting point is 00:26:12 And I think Shane Steikens had, A lot of experience these last couple weeks, at least, going against the Blitz or some high-pressure defenses. So I think that they're going to have answers for what the commanders are going to do in this game, and I think they're going to be able to put up some points. On the other end, though, Marietta being someone who I think can operate well within the system, a scramble threat, and the Colts don't really handle scramble threats fairly well, I think they're going to be able to put up some points as well. I just think the difference here is that the Colts are very good at getting the ball past midfield.

Starting point is 00:26:44 and getting into field goal range and turning almost every possession into potential point possessions where I think the commanders is going to be a little bit hit or miss with them. And that's what I have being the difference at the end. So I had Colts 30 commanders 24, similar to what you said with the Colts and Falcons game last year. I think it's going to be a pretty similar event there for this game. Do we have any bold predictions we want to throw out for this one, Jake? I mean, I think I've already kind of talked about one for me, which I think Josh Downs breaks 100 yards in this game.

Starting point is 00:27:13 I think this is going to be a big Josh Downs game, or at least it should be a big Josh Downs game, right? Like, I'm actually curious to see it the commanders, like last week against Jackson Smith and Jigba, they doubled him as much as possible on a lot of their blitzes. I'm curious to see if Downs gets the same attention because I think any smart defensive coordinator would blitz on third down and just have two guys bracket downs, one guy playing inside, one guy playing out to take away those option routes. I think that would be smart for a defensive coach, but I'm curious to see if that's what the commanders do.

Starting point is 00:27:44 If not, I do think he breaks 100 yards in this one. Okay. So I'll have like a prognostication and then I will make a bold prediction. So I haven't scored in 20. So obviously two field goals. The touchdown will either be from Jonathan Taylor or Josh Downs. The other one will either come from the defense or on a kickoff return. Oh, man.

Starting point is 00:28:04 You've been calling the kickoff return. You've been wanting this kickoff return. I want it. Do you know how many kickoff return touchdowns there have been this year, Jake? Very few, if any. Zero. Okay. Nailed it.

Starting point is 00:28:15 I really like the coldest kick returners when it's due in McGowan. Yeah. Or, you know, like, again, a defensive touchdown. You get to Mario'd in the backfield. He coughs it up, like an eight-yard scoop and score type of situation. My bold prediction, so Tyler Warren has averaged inches per reception, it seems like. He's going for 100 in this one. Oh, that would be cool.

Starting point is 00:28:44 Okay. Yeah. Lifting the script on this, I just think that aggressive defense is going to lend itself to him having a little more space to go in the secondary. And I think, you know, after a few games of clearly him averaging barely anything per catch, I don't want to say it would catch anyone off guard, but it would just be such a flip of the script to target him a little bit more. downfield. And, you know, he might have one where there's like a big blown coverage in the secondary and he picks up like 30 yards yak on a play.

Starting point is 00:29:20 Like, you know, how Moe-A-Cox tends to do like once a year. Yeah. Yeah. That's how I see this one going. Am I ever right when it comes to these sometimes? But I'm never completely wrong. Well, it's up the kickoff return touchdown ones that you keep trying to call. I did.

Starting point is 00:29:37 Okay, my Gowan did have that 60-yard return, I guess, in week one, right? I called one last year, though, when Doolins got called back. That's true. That's true. That's true. So I was half right. Yeah, well, darn Joe Batchy taking that call away from you. You guys last know in the comment section below what you think this game's going to be and what your overall predictions are.

Starting point is 00:29:58 And if you guys want another way to be locked on to the Colts every single day, introducing the Locked On Colts hit your daily hit of espresso on the team that you love, quick, strong, five minutes or less. Find Locked On Colts hit on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast. If you don't already, make sure you're following at Lockdown Colts at Jake Arthur, NFL, and at Zach Hicks, too, all on socials. If you never miss an episode, the Everyday Air Club is built for you. Get us ad-free, plus members-only Discord access, and much more. Head to LockdownColts.com to join the club.

Starting point is 00:30:25 Thank you all for tuning in. We'll catch you guys back here on Sunday after the game.

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