Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - PREDICTION: Will Indianapolis Colts Defend HOME TURF vs. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens?

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Indianapolis Colts hosts the Baltimore Ravens in week one of the 2026 season. Can they start the season on a high note? Let's get to it. You are Locked on Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to Locked on Colts. I'm Zach Hicks. That's Jake Arthur, and today's episode is brought to you by Fandul.

Starting point is 00:00:33 Get $350 in bonus bets guaranteed when you bet $5.5.5. every day for seven days. Join all the action at fandul.com on today's show. We're going to preview the Colts and Ravens for a final time. It feels like we've been talking about this matchup for months now at this point. The season is finally here on Sunday. We are excited to get all the speculation out the window. Both these teams are pretty healthy as well, which is great.

Starting point is 00:00:58 We're going to see the full strength of two teams that are looking to push for a playoff spot this year. Just exactly what you're looking for in week one of the 2026. season. So we're going to talk about the offense, talk about the defense, and then talk about our final predictions and just notes we have before this big game on Sunday. But we do have a couple of injury updates here as well for the Colts. They have just one injury designation, which is linebacker Austin Adjicay. He heard his hamstring either after the Thursday practice or in between Thursday and Friday because he did not practice on Friday with that hamstring injury.

Starting point is 00:01:34 So he is questionable as of right now. We'll see if he's able to go. on Sunday. And then for the Baltimore Ravens, two players who were out with injury last season, or injuries from this past season that are affecting this game. Defensive tackle, Nambi, Madibuque, is that how you say his name, Jake? I said Madabike. Matabike. Matabike. Former pro bowler, outstanding player.

Starting point is 00:01:55 Missed most of the last season, I believe, with this injury. So he is still ramping up and recovering. Had a full practices, I think, at points this week as well. So he will be getting out there soon for them, just not in this week one game. against the Indianapolis Colts, and then linebacker Teddy Buchanan, who was a rookie last season, who started a lot of games for them. So two key players, not playing in this game for the Ravens, but overall, both these teams are pretty healthy, and it's healthy as you get for an NFL game. So let's talk about this Colts offense, though, Jake.

Starting point is 00:02:24 I'll throw it to you first. What are your kind of overall thoughts and feelings about the Colts offense going to this week one game? And I guess with more players than we expected on offense, right, if you would have asked us back in April, you know, would they have had their quarterback. Would they have had, you know, Alec Pierce for this game? All these guys are good to go now for the Colts and should be a good one. Yeah, it normally gives you a little bit of pause when you think about basing a Baltimore Ravens defense, but number one, they're coming off not a good year last year. And now they've got a whole new coaching staff for the first time since 2008. There is a new coaching staff in Baltimore for the first time since I graduated high school.

Starting point is 00:03:03 So that should tell you all you need to know. So, yeah. Yeah, the Colts faced both of their defensive minds last year with the Dolphins and the Chargers. In those games, the Colts averaged over 400 yards of offense and about 35 and a half points per game. So Shane Steichen knows how to attack this scheme. I think personnel-wise, Baltimore's probably got a little more talent than the Chargers did. And then, of course, Kyle Hamilton is kind of a force multiplier. He's a freak, you know. they're working in Trey Hendrickson now as well.

Starting point is 00:03:37 They've got some talented guys there, but it's an old defense as well, Zach. Some big-time veterans, guys around or north of 30 years old. So luckily for the Colts, they've got a lot of offensive continuity. So mixed with the fact that this group's already been together, they have Daniel Jones back, Jonathan Taylor is still playing out of his mind.

Starting point is 00:04:00 There's really very little turnover with the offensive line. I mean, Jalen Travis started the last four games last year. I really like the offensive chances in this one. I just think strategically and talent-wise, they might have the advantage. Yeah, I think for me, the biggest numbers to look at is when you look at the Chargers defense, and again, it's not a one-to-one comparison, but it is the same guy calling the plays on that side of the ball. So there are some similarities and things that Jesse Minter likes to do. And like what we saw with the Chargers last year, they were the second highest zone rate

Starting point is 00:04:33 in the NFL, among all NFL teams last year, only behind the Carolina Panthers. I believe they're also top three in split safety looks. So two high safety. They like to be in their quarters coverage as much as possible. They're going to be in that quarter's defense. And what we saw the Colts do in that matchup against them was just pepper the flats. Pepper the flats as much as possible. If you want to drop your quarters guys back and prevent explosives, that's fine.

Starting point is 00:04:58 We're just going to keep getting the ball to Tyler Warren and Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs in the flats and let them create after the catch. And that's how the Colts were able to put up all those points and yards against Minter last season. Now, I don't expect that to be the exact same thing this year. If I were the Ravens defense, I would go into this game saying, hey, their quarterback's coming off in Achilles injury, their wide receiver one is coming off of ankle surgery.

Starting point is 00:05:22 So we are going to test them. We are going to blitz the crap out of them, and we're going to play some man coverage and really see what these guys are about. We're going to make them beat us through the air rather than letting Jonathan Taylor do his thing. So I do expect in like the first quarter for this Ravens defense to come out pretty aggressive, you know, try to set the tone early in this one. But if the Colts can answer the bell and they can get some points on the board on the first drive or hit a deep shot early, I do think that can back the Ravens up into that quarter's defense that we saw Shane Steichen really exploit last year.

Starting point is 00:05:56 So I think they have the recipe to put up big point total in this game. Now it is week one. It's going to be sloppy. There's going to be some gross football being played. We saw in the first two games of the year, offensive football is at a disadvantage when it comes to week one, most times, especially when there are continuity issues. I mean, we saw some of the best offenses from last year trying to do it in the first two games, and they are all struggling in them. So it will be a bit of a sloppy performance for sure. But I think for the Colts, come out fast, get some points on the board early, get them back into that quarter's coverage that they like to do. And then Shane Seiking can go to work, just peppering the flats, getting it to Warren, getting it to Tass Allen, and letting those guys go to work. So they have the blueprint for how to attack this defense. Jesse Minter is certainly going to try to bring some new things in this one, but I do like the Colch's chances. And I do like their chances of getting the ball away from Kyle Hamilton because we saw them do it against Derwin James last year, where they really did their best to get that ball away from James and attack the opposite side of the field more often than not put that nickel corn. because we saw them do it against Derwin James last year, where they really did their best to get that ball away from James

Starting point is 00:06:56 and attack the opposite side of the field more often, not put that nickel corner in conflict, more so than that strong safety coming down to the box. And then when Kyle Hamilton comes down to play some nickel, then they'll go away from the nickel and go after the strong safety. So there are ways to really exploit that if you're the Colts. But I do think that they have the ingredients to put up some big points in this game. It just comes down to how they look early against the blitz

Starting point is 00:07:18 and against aggressiveness from the rapists. defense. Yeah, I think Kyle Hamilton will probably have to have his side set on Tyler Warren for a good, a good chunk of time. And then luckily for the Colts, Warren is far from their only option in the passing game. So I think if you could just use Warren as a decoy or whatever you want to do to keep Hamilton out of the mix, I think that would certainly be wise. And then to your point with Baltimore's defense and Jesse Min are coming out trying to be aggressive, probably. Like I do think you would want to test the Colts backfield with Daniel Jones a bit. But that's what you plan on doing early in a game. As the rigors of a game go on, you kind of just resort to what you are

Starting point is 00:08:01 in your DNA. And that is what Shane Steichen is very familiar with and knows how to attack. So I think you're exactly right in that regard. I think a couple things I'm interested to see. So we know about past the score or run to win. Are they going to be able to be able to to follow that recipe and how much do other running backs not named john then taylor get involved like do we see five plus touches for set mcgowan very interested to see how that goes and then just i guess how they divvy up things situationally in the receiver core ashton dula on early downs when it's more of run situations uh 12 personnel like josh downs versus keenan allen who gets what you know what reps there and what situation so um and then like you said with alec pierce covering him

Starting point is 00:08:54 and man has never been a wise idea because he could be anyone but if you're baltimore you have to see like if you need to put marlin humphrey out there and get physical with him and try and mug him up a little bit like i think you have to do that just to see what it's going to be like now that may result in a shot over the top but yeah like i think you have to get physical with him, he's not in football shape yet. So I think that probably would be wise on Baltimore's part to do that. Yeah, no for sure. And then one more thing I want to throw out there is just the matchup between Jalen Travis and those edge rushers. How does he look in his first start of this season after getting a whole offseason preparing as a starter? Does it look like a total disaster, especially to put Terry Hendrickson over him? Or does he show that he is a

Starting point is 00:09:37 capable player? That'll be a huge matchup for this Colts team because, you know, when we talk about that Chargers game from last year, the Chargers didn't really have a healthy edge. rusher that was a game record in that one. Trey Hendrickson is a game wrecker when he is healthy, and that can be the difference between putting up 38 points and almost 500 yards of offense and having a dud of under 20 points and under 300 yards of offense. So that is something that to really watch in this game for the Colts. Coming up, though, we're going to talk about the Colts defense and how they have to corral two of the best players in the league in Lamar Jackson and Derek Henry. Running a business shouldn't feel like you're trying to connect a bunch of different systems that

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Starting point is 00:12:38 the Everdair Club for ad-free episodes and access to a group chat with other listeners of this show, me and Jake. Tap the link in the show notes or go to lockdown Colts. dot supercast. All right, Jake, so when we look at the Colts defense for this game,

Starting point is 00:12:52 obviously the big thing that we're circling is just the matchup with Lamar Jackson, the matchup with Derek Henry. Now, I fully expect the Colts to play a good amount of base defense in this game

Starting point is 00:13:02 where they're going to have their five-man front, their three defensive tackles along with two defensive ends in there to really counter this rushing attack that we're going to see from the Ravens. The Ravens are probably going to run

Starting point is 00:13:13 a lot of 12 and 13 personnel so they can get downhill with that running game with Derek Henry. My only fear with that is when you bring that extra defensive tackle in there, are you actually going to be better against the run? Because I think you and I know who that extra defensive tackle is going to be. So that's my big fear. I'd almost rather just play nickel at that point because I feel like you're getting better defenders on the field. I don't want to take off Justin Wally for Jerry Tillerie and think I'm getting better against

Starting point is 00:13:38 the run in that regard. But aside from that, I do think the Colts defense does have. some good things in place here. I think they have the advantage in the secondary versus these past catching weapons that we see against the Ravens, having Sauce Gardner and Mooney Ward and Justin Wally against Zay Flowers and company at wide receiver. Mark Andrews is still a fine player, but he's not, you know, if this was 2020, Mark Andrews, it would be a different story right now. They don't have Isaiah likely anymore, no Charlie Kohler anymore, two guys who are very vital with their running game the last couple years. So I do like how the Colts match up.

Starting point is 00:14:13 And I think I like the idea of running more base defense in this match. It's just who you're bringing on the field for your base defense does terrify me a little bit. And I'm not trying to make this all about poor Tilleri here. But you guys need to understand why I'm concerned about this, you know? Yeah, I think so. I think that's the whole key of it, too, is so teams really like to blitz Lamar. He's a very highly blitzed quarterback. but in order to get to that,

Starting point is 00:14:42 you have to get through Derek Henry first. You have to set yourself up in third and longer situations, third and six, third and seven, so on and so forth. And I just, man, I think, like, right now, at least their linebackers

Starting point is 00:14:57 might be better prepared to stop the run than they are to defend the past. Because they, like, they're not up to speed yet with, like, C.J. Allen being 100%, you know, matching his physical reps with his mental reps yet. Bryce Betcher, it looks like he's actually going to be more of a reserve. But like Jalen Carlis and Akeem Davis Gather, they're probably better run defenders at this

Starting point is 00:15:21 point. Just, oh, man. I think Davis Gather certainly is a better run defender. Carlis, I probably say, is a better past defender than run defender. Well, yeah. I mean, you got to avoid the situation you had last year with having just two run defending linebackers who missed a lot of tackles. but yeah it's it's it's just the elephant in the room it's yeah they have to they have to limit

Starting point is 00:15:45 derrick henry somewhat so that they can get to the point where you know lou anerimo wants to blitz the like that four man pass rush is probably not going to be super fruitful this year so in order for them to get sacks and get 40 plus on the year they're probably going to have to have a pretty good success rate of blitzes um you know cam bynum is probably going to get sent several times. You're probably going to see Davis Gather or Carlis sent several times. Yeah, that's just, it's the main objective. When you look at Baltimore's defense, you can almost see nothing else beyond stopped Eric Henry first and foremost and then force Lamar Jackson into errant quick decisions. Because you know what I've said about the cold secondary. Like I think

Starting point is 00:16:31 if you can get these quarterbacks, you know, throwing high over the middle or just making decisions they want back, you've got two safeties that can make them pay at any time. And like, Cam Bynum is so good at coming down with those overthrowing balls and everything, you know, like that. I feel like that's most of his interceptions. You throw a ball high over the middle of the field and he's coming down with it. So I think if you could force a turnover or two against Lamar, like a fumble in a pick because he doesn't throw a lot of picks, then I think you put yourself in such a good

Starting point is 00:17:02 advantage in this game. Yeah, I mean, turnovers are always huge in the NFL. especially in a matchup like this, where I think two teams are pretty evenly matched, especially early in the season. But yeah, ultimately, I don't really feel too much concern for the Colts stopping the pass in this game because I do think that they are pretty well equipped for it. I think if they get the Ravens force back into passing situations or must-pass situations, we're going to see them creep up six guys to the line of scrimmage.

Starting point is 00:17:29 They're going to be very diverse with which guys they're blitzing. They're going to have a spy on it, and I think they're going to be able to win on the outside with their corner. So I'm not too concerned there. My biggest concern, though, is the run defense. It, like, it is just when, if they want to put Tillary out there for more than like a snap, I think that's going to be concerning. I think these two linebackers are, are good when kept clean, but you have to keep them clean. And if the Ravens are going to roll out here with 12 and 13 personnel, they're going to do everything they can to get bodies on those linebackers in these power run situations, these gap run situations. So how well do those linebackers combat physicality?

Starting point is 00:18:04 that's something that I have big concerns about. So I like the way this defense matches up against the past. I think that they can be really unique with their blitzing, although, again, I'm not someone who would have the guts to blitz Lamar Jackson as much as some of these guys do just because with a guy with his speed, if you miss one tackle, he's gone, and explosives are the name of the game nowadays. But aside from that, I do think, like,

Starting point is 00:18:27 they have the things to match up pretty well against the passing game, but the running game I am concerned about. They are going to be very reliant on Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner wrecking hell in this one. Like against a guy who's never started at center in his NFL career in Joe Von Gwynn, against a rookie left guard, although highly drafted and highly touted rookie left guard, still a rookie going out there. The right guard, Simpson's not like the greatest player either. Like I do think the Colts have an advantage with Buckner and Grover Stewart.

Starting point is 00:18:57 But if those guys aren't playing at like the top level of their game, I do think this run defense is going to be a pretty big concern, and don't even get me started on the plays where, like, Latu's out of the game or the plays where he is out of the game, or, I mean, God forbid, Grover Stewart comes and sits out for one play. Those might be really disastrous plays for the Colts defense and run defense. So hopefully they can set the tone early, get a couple big run stuff early in the game,

Starting point is 00:19:22 set that tone that, hey, maybe running on us won't be that easy, and kind of get the Ravens being a little bit more one-dimensional trying to throw the football, if they're allowing like six yards of pop to Derek Henry, it lets everything be so much easier for Lamar Jackson and company. So I think they have the ingredients, like I said, on the first part about the offense as well. It's just I am a little bit more concerned about the run defense and anything else in this game.

Starting point is 00:19:45 I do think the detackles versus that inexperienced interior line is going to be huge. I think especially Grover with his power and then Tommy with how twitchy he is, you're going from two extremes there. Like that's, it's going to be, I think, pretty hard to handle. Not a lot of teams have that, that change up that they can throw at an interior line. Yeah. And coming up, Jake and I are going to go into our final predictions, final guesses for like certain players and standout performances, all that in our final segment to break down this Colts Ravens game for a final time before Sunday. Matt Derry here from the Lockdown Lions podcast.

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Starting point is 00:22:32 We talked about the Colts offense versus the Ravens defense in the first segment, how, again, they kind of have all the things they need against Jesse Minter's defense to find success. And then I poured some cold water on the Colts defense a little bit with a run defense against Derek Henry. I'm not super pessimistic, but I am a little pessimistic about that. But let's go to our final thoughts and predictions, Jake. I think I'm going to go on a limb and say you're pretty optimistic because you're,

Starting point is 00:22:58 usually are where last year I had the running bit where I picked against the Colts every single week. And it worked for the first half of the year until then it became a self-fulfilling prophecy, I guess, in the second half of the season. But let's throw it to you with the optimism first year. Jake, what do you think in week one here? Are we starting off the season on a good track or is it going to be misery from start to finish? I like the Colts in this one. I just think, again, unless there's like a just a total breakdown like there was against the Steelers last year, the Colts know how to attack this defense. I don't think because, again, it's Jesse Minner and Anthony Weaver both like they,

Starting point is 00:23:40 Shane has such a great track record against both of these guys. So I don't think they're going to magically throw some defense together that he hasn't seen. I think eventually whatever cuteness they have lined up first will wear off as the game goes on and they're going to go to what's in their DNA. And at that point, if Shane hasn't already figured them out early, I think he ultimately will. Daniel Jones being back is huge. His chemistry with Shane as a play caller, I think, means the world.

Starting point is 00:24:11 When you've got a quarterback who I don't think Daniel's physically limited, but he is coming back from an Achilles, and we haven't seen him truly under pressure from a defense yet, I think being a cerebral player and having chemistry with your play caller makes a big difference. I think that's huge. Jonathan Taylor, not every team has a Jonathan Taylor. And then just, you know, in the passing game, you kind of have to pick your poison if you're Baltimore. And again, it's an older defense.

Starting point is 00:24:40 I just don't think that they match up super well with the Colts pass catchers. Tyler Warren, Alec Pierce, even Keenan Allen, that's a guy that still gets open. Is he explosive? No. open he converts third downs uh josh down's obviously very shifty i just like the colts in this one the big thing to me is whether or not derrick henry gets really out and rolling um logically lamar jackson is probably not a guy that's going to run a million times a game anymore i think he's probably at some point going to settle into like being much more of a passer than he is a runner he'll still run and

Starting point is 00:25:17 pick up first downs and things but i think as long as you can make sure that 32-year-old Derek Henry isn't absolutely wrecking you, you'll be able to handle whatever Lamar is doing. You know what I mean? Because we know Lou wants to blitz him. We know he wants to get after him. That's what some teams have had success doing against him. And I mean, the Colts have a very aggressive defensive coordinator when he smells blood in the water. So I like the Colts secondary ability to create turnovers. I don't. I know. I know Mooney and Sauce aren't really big interception guys, but they're big pass breakup guys. Biden and Halsey are big takeaway guys. So I'm sensing a couple big plays by the Colts back seven.

Starting point is 00:26:04 And then offensively, I think they'll be just fine. So what did you have score prediction-wise? Do you have a score prediction? Yeah, I don't think it's going to be like a route or anything, but I do like 24 to 20 Colts keeps coming to me. It could be something where like, Baltimore gets to their 20 later in the game or whatever, but I just really like the Colts in this one. Yeah, I think I had 2320 Colts, so right on the same track with that. I just had it being a field goal game late,

Starting point is 00:26:32 and we'll see if the Colts defense can hold. But yeah, even for me being the ever so pessimistic one on this podcast compared to you, I do think the Colts match up well in this game. I think these are two fairly even teams. I think it's going to be mostly like a coin flip level game. Like unlike you where you think the Ravens might get to that 20 late. I think it'll be a back and forth game that the Colts ultimately pulled off in the end. I am a little bit concerned, obviously, about the run defense and just, again,

Starting point is 00:26:59 containing Lamar Jackson just because he's a force multiplier, right? He's a guy who can open a game up with his ability. But when I look at just the continuity that the Colts have, like, returning 9 of 11 offensive starters, and then even on defense, they're just healthy again, because they weren't healthy on defense for like a majority of last season, getting healthy out there. I do think that's going to be something that pushes the Colts slightly over the edge in this game. I will put one prediction out there, and I'll get your quick reaction to it too, Jake, because I'm going to throw us out there knowing that it's going to infuriate some Colts fans. I think the Colts are going to come out throwing the ball quite a bit on Sunday.

Starting point is 00:27:35 I think, like, we know with Shane Stuyken that's throw to win or throw to score run to win, right? So he likes to throw early in the game. But I think when you are playing against a team like the Ravens who probably want to test Daniel Jones early, and they want to test that Achilles, so they're going to just gear up to stop the run, a lot of base defense to stop that run early. We might see like 10 straight passes from the Colts to start the game. And I know Colts fans are going to be pissed,

Starting point is 00:27:59 like get the ball of Jonathan Taylor, what are we doing? Especially if they have the punt on one of those, but I do think we're going to see some throwing early just to show the faith in Daniel Jones and Alec Pierce and get the ball rolling. And to me, I think that could lead to some early success for this Colts offense. And in a game like this, again, week one,

Starting point is 00:28:16 if you can get some points on the board early when you know sloppy play is going to follow that for both teams, I think that can be the difference maker. So I have the Colts by three. I wouldn't be shocked at the Ravens one just because, again, I really do think this is a coin flip. Maybe by the end of the season, the Ravens really hit their stride.

Starting point is 00:28:33 They're favored anyways. Yeah, the Ravens by the end of the year, I think are going to be a really good team. But I just think early on with, like you said, they haven't had a new head coach in so long at this point, almost 20 years since they've had a new head coach. which along with just disrupting a lot of the continuity. Lamar Jackson didn't play in the preseason with a new offensive staff,

Starting point is 00:28:53 a new offensive coordinator as well. So he doesn't even know what live game looks like yet with this new guy. He's still Lamar Jackson. Like he's still great. But I expected to be a little bit slower of a start for the Ravens, and that might be just enough for the Colts. So yeah, I have them winning by three in this one. I think it's going to be a very close game and excited to see what comes here on Sunday.

Starting point is 00:29:11 Yeah. So we always like to try and end with some bold predictions. Let's get one in real quick. It's not bold for me to say AJ Halsey's going to have an interception, even though I feel good about that. But Ashton Doolin-house call on kick return. That would be awesome. I like it.

Starting point is 00:29:27 Let's say Ashton-Doulan-house call. All right. I'll go with Josh Downs is the leading receiver in the game. I think just throwing away from Hamilton, they're going to use Hamilton to take away Warren. Pierce will get a couple of shots here and there, but I think Downs being the guy on the other side of the field, I think leads the entire game and receiving me.

Starting point is 00:29:45 yards and catches in this game will be mine. But you got just to let us know in the comment section below what you think score prediction, bold predictions. Let us know in the comment section. Thank you guys for making Lockdown Colts your first listen today and every day. Now in video, we send you to the first ever 24-7 YouTube channel on the NFL and on audio. Check out Locked on Fantasy Football with Fabs and Marcus for your second listen. If you don't already, make sure you're following at Lockdown Colts at Jake Arthur and and NFL and at Zach Kicks 2 all on socials. And if you never miss an episode, the Everdayer Club is built for you. Get us ad-free plus members-only Discord access and much more.

Starting point is 00:30:18 Head to LockdownColts.com to join the club. Thank you all for tuning in. We back here Sunday afternoon after the game for our first post-game squad show of the season.

Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - PREDICTION: Will Indianapolis Colts Defend HOME TURF vs. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens?

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