Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - PREDICTION: Will Indianapolis Colts SHOCK Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs On SNF?

Starting point is 00:00:01 Can the Indianapolis Colts pull off the upset and Arrowhead this week? Let's get to it. You are Locked on Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Welcome to Locked on Colts. I'm Zach Hicks. That's Jake Arthur. In today's episode is brought to you by Fandul.

Starting point is 00:00:28 Get $350 in bonus bets guaranteed when you bet $5 every day for seven days. Join all the action at Fandul.com. On today's show, we are giving you the final rundown of Colts and Chiefs' Sunday night football matchup here in week two of the regular season. We're going to go through the Colts Offense versus Chiefs Defense, then vice versa, Chiefs Offense versus Colts defense, and then give our final outlook and predictions. We certainly missed last week, Jake. We'll see if we can rebound a little bit and see if the Colts can rebound as well here in

Starting point is 00:01:01 week two. Some injury updates, though, before we get into it, still. both teams fairly healthy. It's only the second week of the season. The Chiefs will be down two notable players, Charmary Connor. Their safety is out. I think he didn't play last week either, so it's going to be two straight weeks that he is out. And then Chiefs left tackle, Josh Simmons, is also likely to be out as well. For the Indianapolis Colts, the only player they ruled out with Ashton Doolin, who is week to week with an ankle injury, according to Shane Steichen. But Jake, let's go into this. Colts offense, Chief's defense. You know,

Starting point is 00:01:35 Weirdly, I think this concerns me more somehow than the Colts defense versus the Chiefs offense, which I didn't think I'd be saying going into this, but Spaggs looks to be back with how he performed in week one against the Denver Broncos. They put a really good Denver Broncos offensive line in a blender that entire game long. And I am a little bit worried about how good this Chief defense looked in week one. So what are your thoughts on this matchup for the Colts? Yeah, I mean, this one is, it's obviously going to be tough. You know, you had mentioned at the top of the show.

Starting point is 00:02:06 We were a bit more optimistic going into last week. And that's because, you know, we know how we thought they should perform, but they absolutely fell flat in that regard. And I kind of felt like that's the same way the Broncos came out against the Chiefs last week. You know, obviously we both watched the game. And I was like, wow, this, it doesn't necessarily look like the Chiefs are forcing them and all these mistakes, but Bo Nicks and the Broncos' offense just looks poor. So I do think that there's definitely an opportunity for the Colts to look much better,

Starting point is 00:02:38 as long as they're executing and kind of not shooting themselves in the foot. But the more I think about last week, the offense, don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to make excuses for the mad or bad game, but they really were set up to not succeed at all. Like pretty much all but a couple of their drives began inside the 20-yard line. I think it was six of them were at the 20 or inside of it. Five of them were inside the 20. And then they had those two turnovers in the first half that yielded 14 bonus points to the Ravens.

Starting point is 00:03:13 So constant bad field position and then digging yourself in like, what was that, like a three or four score hole by the end of, you know, going into halftime. Like they were kind of doomed from the first 30 minutes. So not every game just kind of spirals out of confusion. like that that quickly like it did last week. So I think, you know, as long as you're able to show some semblance of a run game, like you were with Jonathan Taylor, you know, keep them honest, have some sort of threat vertically this week because, I mean, I think Baltimore did pretty well at containing Tyler Warren.

Starting point is 00:03:53 They weren't going to let him beat them on any of the short yard after catch opportunities. Like they were right there on him the whole time. they didn't have an answer early for Josh Downs, which I think is an opportunity for the Colts to keep kind of hammering that. Keenan Allen would get his, you know, seven yards and down. And I think that was pretty successful. But I think they're just kind of missing that vertical element. And that's one of the unfortunate parts of Ashton Doolan not being out there is one,

Starting point is 00:04:21 they're not going to have their early down, one of their early down blocking receivers out there because we know they want to switch up Ashton Doolan and Keenan Allen with those duties. but Doolin is also one of their few receivers that's kind of a vertical threat. So it's going to be up to Alec Pierce to actually be having kind of gravity as he goes down field to make a safety actually bite and prove that they're willing to go down field. Yeah, and I'm not too concerned about that aspect. Alec Pierce was their best receiver last week. I'm assuming that'll be the case again this week.

Starting point is 00:04:55 So I think they'll be able to get something down the field with Alec Pierce in this game. I think it's an interesting matchup because something that Spag said after the game, and it's kind of funny thinking about how the result of the game was, but he said he had to simplify a lot of things on his defense for the Chiefs because they had so many new faces in there, which they did. They made a big overhaul this offseason on guys they brought in and what they're doing on the defensive side of the ball. So to help with communication, they simplified a lot of things.

Starting point is 00:05:21 I wish the Colts would have done that against the Baltimore Ravens. They actively complicated it actually. Right, right. But when you simplify some things, it can. lead to, I guess, some static looks and some easier to read looks. So for the Colts, I think what's going to be key is make sure you're using motion to get into those static looks and making sure you're getting those pre-snap reads and just understanding where the ball can go and keep the ball moving forward at all times.

Starting point is 00:05:45 You know, last week we saw them get knocked off the field way too often on third down. I think the key for the Colts offense is going to be how can we get into third and two, how can we get into third and three? And then from there, we have the run-pass option, whichever one we want to go to, to convert for first downs and control the ball. You know, I think this is going to be one of those games where there's not going to be a ton of plays. There's not going to be a ton of, like, you know, big, huge chunk plays. I think it's going to be death by paper cuts on both sides.

Starting point is 00:06:10 I know the Colts are probably going to be a little more aggressive on their defense, but I do think this is going to be a hard-fought game where points are kind of at a premium, and it's going to be a game where you want to control the clock a little bit. So, yeah, for the Colts, I just really think that continuing the run game, moving the ball forward at all times, and then taking advantage if they do want to simplify things on that side of the ball for the Chief's defense, making sure that you can find those right matchups, find Josh Downs versus Legerius Sneed, find the ones that really make the most sense for your team, and continue getting into positive situations. But I'm really curiously this Colts offensive line versus Chiefs defensive line. The Chiefs D line looks like the best that it's been, you know, in a long time in this Pat Mahomes era, this Andy Reid era. So they have a lot of, like, interest. body types. A lot of guys who can win in certain ways, they like to mix and match who's rushing where. And again, they made the Denver Broncos O-line, which is arguably the best O-line in football, definitely look not like that in that first game. So I do think that's going to be the test for

Starting point is 00:07:12 the Colts offense, Colts offensive line. But ultimately, again, if you can find the matchups in the secondary, like Legerius Sneed, for instance, I'm not trying to say he's awful, but I think he's certainly the weaker point compared to Delane and Noel Williams, who was awesome. some last week. So I think that attacking that a little bit more could lead to some success for the Colts. I was going to say, and we're both of the assumption that they're going to be ringing some pressure as well, right? Because Baltimore was, what, the fourth highest blitz rate last week?

Starting point is 00:07:41 And it was very successful against the Colts. So until the Colts show teams that they can actually counter that, that's going to be probably the easiest recipe to defeat them because Jones hasn't handled it well. and the extra blockers haven't diagnosed it, number one, diagnosed them well or actually blocked them well either. So a little curious if they just keep Jonathan Taylor back there. Not that he's like awesome, but we've seen that he could do better than what Seth McGowan did.

Starting point is 00:08:13 There's obviously Seth McGowan has had one game, and it was a bad one in pass pro, but we've at least seen some good from Jonathan Taylor early last year in that department. So interested to see. what McGowan's role will be, or if they just want to play it safe and let Jonathan Taylor do it until McGowan proves in practice that he's more capable. I don't know, but I am under the assumption they're going to bring pressure. I mean, in the first play from scrimmage last week, they brought Noel Williams on a corner blitz, and he got home for the sack.

Starting point is 00:08:45 Yeah, Spags is going to bring some pressure. I don't know if it's going to be as high a percentage as we saw this past week with the Baltimore Ravens, but he will blitz pretty high on third down in this game, which, again, is important for the Colts to avoid third and eight plus, third and nine. Like, get into third and shorts, and you have a better chance to get that ball out quick before the Blitz gets home.

Starting point is 00:09:06 If they're going to be out there in third and eight, and they're going to bring five or six guys, we could see some issues for the Colts offense. So I am a bit concerned with this Chief's defense, especially with Spags of his success he had last year against the Colts, but we'll see how that matchup goes. Going on to the defense now in just a moment, I'm actually weirdly optimistic to a degree,

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Starting point is 00:11:38 Don't forget to check out the Everydayer Club, though, for all ad-free episodes and access to a group chat with other listeners of show, me and Jake. Tap the link in the show notes or go to a live. locked on Colts.supercast.com. We also have an all-access club where you get some bonus features in there, including a new film room that I dropped on Justin Wally. So definitely check that out on there.

Starting point is 00:11:58 Jake, though, I want to kind of pitch why I'm a little bit optimistic for the Colts defense, and you can push back all you want here. But there's three reasons. I'm going to go through three reasons here. One, the communication cannot be as bad as what it was last week. It truly cannot be that bad again. It is because that was like elementary. You know, if you ever watch like elementary school kids try to play flag football and nobody

Starting point is 00:12:19 know, like there's no defensive call at all. There's no, it's just everybody running around like a chicken with their head cut off. And that's basically what it was for the Colts defense last year. So they're going to be better just because it can't get much worse from a communication standpoint. Number two, while the chief's offense has weapons, right? They do have Pat Mahomes. They have Kenneth Walker, very, very good players. They have a really good interior offensive line. They don't have safe flowers at wide receiver. Their wide receiver core is definitely. definitely a step back from the Ravens, even when the Ravens were all banged up, like, this Chief's wide receiver course, Rishi Rice on screens, and that's really it.

Starting point is 00:12:54 And also with this Chief's offense, they don't really marry the play action under center as well as the Ravens did. They tried to do some under center throws last week against the Broncos, and it really didn't work. So basically, their whole game was, if we're under center, we're running the ball. If we're in the gun, we're throwing the ball. and they were able to just punch the Broncos in the mouth, but I do think that's a little bit more exploitable for teams that don't get punched in the mouth.

Starting point is 00:13:21 And hopefully that's my one concern with the Colts defense. But if they don't get punched in the mouth, they come out aggressive. I think they can have a better week than the Broncos did. And then finally, Lou Ann Rumo just always has the Chief's number in some way. It's not like that he shuts them out every time, but he's like a pest to them. Right? Like we saw last year, the Colts defense was on the field for like 100 plays in that game, and they were struggling to get the ball in the end zone that entire game.

Starting point is 00:13:47 They were one of five in the red zone against the Colts. So even though the Chiefs won that game, that Lou Anirumo versus Andy Reid and Pat Mahomes matchup usually does bode well for Anirmo, at least slowing them down and limiting them on that side of the ball. So I'm not saying the Colts are going to come out here and blank the Chiefs or anything, but I do think we see a bounce back performance from a Colts. defense where the communication should be better. The Chief's offense is still kind of in the growing pains aspect of what they're trying to do now

Starting point is 00:14:16 and they're still not marrying things perfectly well, plus the rookie left tackle as well as a part of that. And then also Lou Anurmo's history against this duo, I think, bodes well for the Colts defense. So I do think they bounce back. It won't be another 40 burger, maybe in the 20s or 30s, but I don't think it'll be a 40 burger that we see against the Colts defense this week. Yeah, I don't think it'll be as bad as last week where they give up 500 yards. and 40 points, but I would be lying if I said I felt great about it.

Starting point is 00:14:43 I am with you, though, where, like, I do think just the fundamentals will be better. I think reassigning the green dot to Akeem Davis-Gather, and it's not just about that part of it where, okay, yes, the Mike linebackers now in control of it. I think it's actually a huge deal now for Cam Bynum to go back to his role of basically being the quarterback of the second year. I think that's huge. I mean, guys like Sauce Gardner, Mooney probably don't need it as much, but for him to be able to kind of walk AJ Halsey through a game, if Halsey's going to be out there exclusively and it's not Wooler, then he's apparently going to need a little more help than he got last week because we saw him just kind of flying around a little aimless at times last week. So I think Bynum being able to focus a lot more of his attention on helping his teammates in the secondary rather than doing the play call, going back and having.

Starting point is 00:15:37 like a couple seconds to look at the offense and make his reads, he's going to be way more freed up to do his thing. And then things can just operate normally as they should in the front seven with, you know, Davis Gather kind of directing traffic a little bit. I think that will just have guys at least in the spots they're supposed to be. So from that regard, I totally agree, like half the battle is just lining up properly in executing just the baseline of what you're supposed to play to play that will be better but this is also and it's a one game sample size but this is probably the best run game we've seen Patrick Mahomes ever have like they ran it like crazy last week and so assuming Lou Aniromo has his advantages against Mahomes like he normally does you know man coverage

Starting point is 00:16:28 being able to send blitzes like that's always been kind of the recipe for anerombo to have success against mahomes well they have a run game to lean into now finally that they They didn't before. And they really haven't at any point that Anirumo has gone up against Mahomes. We saw just what it looked like last week. And when you've got guys like Grover Stewart and DeForest Buckner not doing well, and your linebackers aren't fitting the run when your tackles are already failing and you're playing that much base defense and like Jerry Tilleri is like off in the bathroom somewhere,

Starting point is 00:17:01 you know, and like and your safeties are flying around out of his like, I'm really worried about like, okay, maybe they get, you know, Mahomes carout a little bit, but then what's to say that Kenneth Walker doesn't pop off for 150 yards again? Because I thought the run blocking for him was really good for Kansas City last week, but he created a ton of his own yards. And, I mean, he's agile. He's fast enough on the outside, and he's a tough tackle. So I think the Colts need to prove to us a little bit that they're able to not

Starting point is 00:17:35 it punched in the mouth in the run game. Yeah, they have to show a level of care this week. That's going to be my biggest concern for sure is this run defense and just the physicality. They have to show they want it this week. I know it's kind of coach speak, but it's as simple as that. They have to also tackle well this week. See, it all sounds corny until your team isn't doing those things. You know what I mean?

Starting point is 00:17:56 Then you realize how important those little details that coaches always regurgitate stuff about how important that stuff is when your team's not doing it. So now we kind of see like, yeah, it's corny and it's coachpeak, but the Colts weren't executing that last week. Right, exactly. But I think the overall game plan for this week, and I actually generally agree with this game plan, outside of like what they did last week in Baltimore Ravens. But I think what we're going to see from the Colts is when the Chiefs are under center with those heavier personnel groupings, we're going to see a lot of base.

Starting point is 00:18:26 We're going to see bringing that safety in the box and have eight-man boxes to try to fit against the run. Now it's going to be up to those defenders to, you know, showcase the physicality and the power that they need. but I think they're going to match up in the box with like heavier sets. It's not going to be like nickeling out against these heavier personnel sets. Then I think when we get into more passing situation, it's going to be a lot of press man coverage, sauce Gardner on Rishie Rice and worthy on Mooney and, you know, whoever they have in the slot will be, will be on Wally. When they do try to get rice into the slot, they still will have like a banjo coverage

Starting point is 00:19:00 over top of it, try to get a guy up on him. But a lot of press man coverage to not give these receivers separate. I think we'll see some blitzes on third and long, like third, third downs and stuff to really press that that rookie left tackle. But overall, I think it's going to be a lot of what we saw last year where the Colts were the number one team in man coverage last week. I do think we're going to see them be close to like 55%, 60% in this game as well. It's going to be a lot of man. And I think that's the way to approach this wide receiver core compared to last week's wide receiver court. Like they don't really have a man coverage beater at wide receiver on that team.

Starting point is 00:19:34 They have, if you're going to run zone, they're going to dump it into the flat to Rishi Rice and he'll break 10 tackles and fall forward. But they don't have a guy who's just going to be a pure separator against man coverage. So I do think that's the way to approach it. You just got to make sure your defensive lines rush lanes are on point because you can't let Mahomes escape or he will scramble for a big gain. So it is still a scramble threat. I still don't love it from that aspect.

Starting point is 00:19:57 But I do think that's the way to challenge these wide receivers this week for the Indianapolis Colts. Coming up, though, we're going to give our final thoughts and predict. predictions on this matchup. Can the Colts pull off the upset and Arrowhead? We're going to predict it here in just a moment. Support for today's episode comes from IndeedSponsored Jobs and Workplace Chaos hits and you need the right hire. Indeed, sponsor jobs helps connect employers with candidates who match specific needs like skills, certifications, and locations. So less time gets spent searching and more time gets spent finding that right fit. People are finding quality hires on Indeed right now. In the minute that I've been talking to you,

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Starting point is 00:22:45 So Jake, I'll throw it to you, the ever so optimistic one here on the show. Are you keeping the optimism rolling or is this just too much of a deficit for the Colts to overcome? My optimism will come in the form of me thinking they cover the spread or they beat the spread. So at six and a half in favor of the Chiefs, I think the Colts will, they'll lose, but it'll be within that six and a half. Now, I don't want to say there's no way the Colts can win because if they would have looked better last week, there's a good chance I would have picked them this week. They just looked so bad, so flat last week that it'd be crazy for me to say, yeah, they're going to go ahead and beat this team that just absolutely killed the Denver Broncos who were one of the best teams in the league last week. and it's on primetime in Arrowhead, which is always kind of favorable. There's just like, there's atmospheres that are always favorable,

Starting point is 00:23:39 and that one is very much so for them. But I'm going to say it's like 2723 chiefs. I think it'll be relatively close. You know what I'm saying? Like Kenneth Walker will probably have a decent game. You kind of have to account for those, like, freak things that Travis Kelsey does. like Kelsey's no longer like an eight catch for a 120 yard guy, but you saw last week he had that like 55 yard catch and run just on a weird blown coverage and him and Patrick Mahomes having

Starting point is 00:24:12 that like lizard brain connection. Like that's really hard things to account for. The Colts special teams needs to show some improvement as well, but they're going to have to do it without Ashton Doolin. And then I'm pretty curious as to two things in defending the chief's offense are they going to try and simulate some of the things that zay flowers did against justin wallie with zavier worthy because i know rishy rice does a lot of things like kind of in the slot but if you're just relying on the speed of it all zavier worthy is very very fast um so i think wally is going to have to get his hands on worthy uh because we can't forget like worthy was part of the chiefs coming back and winning last year he's he's been an

Starting point is 00:24:56 underwhelming receiver, but he was part of that comeback, realistically. Like, he can't do some things. And then how are they going to counter the quick strike? Because if I'm not mistaken, Mahomes got rid of the ball quicker than anyone last week because, you know, they don't have Josh Simmons. They've got a UDFA, Khalil Benson at left tackle. With that, I think the Colts are going to have to blitz a little bit and get in clog up those passing lanes. The short passing wins like right outside. I think that is going to have to be the way to because you're just you're hardly going to get to Mahomes if he's getting rid of the ball that quickly. So you're just going to have to litter up those passing winds to the short outside. I think that's probably the way to do it.

Starting point is 00:25:41 And you get weird with it. Like when you drop Latu into that kind of hook coverage and you get him on the interception, I think those are going to be kind of little X factors. The Colts would need in order to win. But just if I'm if I'm prognosticating and forecasting what's going to happen, I see a close loss for the Colts. Yeah, I would actually say, though, if you think that the chiefs are going to come out and try to throw the ball that quick, I wouldn't blitz at all. If you think that they're trying to get the ball out super quick, what I would do is just

Starting point is 00:26:10 drop as many guys into coverage as possible. So then you have more potential tacklers. To make them have to wait a little bit longer than. Right. Either he holds the ball or if it's like a quick screen or about you're dropping eight, you have now eight guys who are getting zone eyes instead of rushing the passer who can convert to go tackle that player instead of if you bring seven guys, those seven guys are coming after the quarterback, right? They're not going to drop and look for that ball care. So I think if you're expecting

Starting point is 00:26:35 that same game plan as last week, you know, I would drop seven, drop eight pretty much every coverage. And then if they want to dare Cleo Benson to block a layout to Latsu, even though Latu's not the quick winner that we all want him to be, it's still a good matchup for the Colts, you know, on the outside there. So I do think that they're going to have a good game plan for this. We'll see if the communication aspect on defense is there. But I'm annoyed yet again, Jake, that you took like my prediction and then added one to the... Oh, did that happen again?

Starting point is 00:27:04 Because I had 26, 23 in the article and the stuff I sent you for Roundtable this week. So I guess I'll change it slightly here. Let's do like 2319 chiefs or whatever in this one. I think it'll be a bit of a lower scoring game because I think it'll be like a few field goal fest. The Colts are just really good in the red zone against the cheese historically, especially with Luana Rumo last year. And I think that that will be a bit of an issue for the cheese, even if they do move the ball a little bit. I'm expecting the Colts offense to be able to move it a little bit too. But again, I think that red zone and some of the third downs on the

Starting point is 00:27:38 other side of the field could be tricky. Ultimately, I think this game's going to be kind of back and forth and it's going to come down to the X factors, which are the quarterbacks. And look, the Chiefs have the advantage there. They have Pat Mahomes, right? Like, Daniel Jones has two healthy fibulas this time around, though. Right. You can be as optimistic as you want with Daniel Jones, but even Daniel Jones with superpowers is not Pat Mahomes, you know? Like, it's Pat Mahomes.

Starting point is 00:28:02 He's going to be a Hall of Fameer. Like, it's a different league here that we're talking about. And the other X factor will be turnovers. Turnovers will be huge in this game because those will be stealing points from the other team. So can the Colts get a turnover and win the turnover battle? That'll be the big question. But ultimately, it's hard to win an arrowhead. I'm not really expecting a huge win after what they put out there last week.

Starting point is 00:28:23 But I will say this. One of the things that irked me the most is when Shane Stuyken said last game was a wake-up call. And I'm like, you guys had a wake-up after the first game of the season. I feel like that's when you should have been most awake, you know? Seven losses with Carly saying they're back, but the pressure is high like that. Right. Yeah, you need the wake-up call. But I will say that this is certainly put-up or shut up game.

Starting point is 00:28:46 like show up to this game or heads are going to roll like because there's a lot of data on it too like 0 and 2 teams generally do not make the playoffs and that's why we usually see o'n1 teams come back and play a lot better in the second week regardless of what happened in the first week but yeah dropping this game is is vital you know or winning this game is vital for the Indianapolis cold so it's put up or shut up they have to show some pride this week show some desire to win because another performance like last week is just like what What are we doing this year then? It's going to, then we're kind of sealing everybody's fate if they play like they did last week again.

Starting point is 00:29:21 So we'll see. Again, I'm expecting a bounce back in some degree. Will it be enough to win? I'm not sure. But, you know, I do think that we do see them, like, be a more competitive football team this week. Maybe that's my optimism coming out. They'll be competitive this week. But I do think we'll see it a little bit better for the Colts in week, too.

Starting point is 00:29:41 Yeah, no, I think just literally focusing on the fundamentals. and the non-negotiables will raise their floor quite a bit, being lined up in the right spots, good communication, the veterans being able to adequately help the younger guys that are out there. And then just not like, there were some guys that had awful performances, just not duplicating those awful performances.

Starting point is 00:30:06 We'll give them a much better show. Yeah, for sure. Thank you guys for making Lockdown Coach your first listen today and every day. Now in video, we send to the first ever 24-7 YouTube channel on the NFL and audio. Check out Locked-on Fancy Football with Fabs and Marcus for your second listen. If you don't already, make sure you're following at Lockdown Colts at Lockdown Colts at Zach Hicks 2, all on socials. And if you never miss an episode, the Everydayer Club is built for

Starting point is 00:30:29 you. Get us ad-free plus members, only Discord access, and much more. Head to Lockdowncolts.com to join the club. Thank you all for tuning in. And we're back here after the game on Sunday night, I guess going into Monday morning. So we'll catch you guys back here on Monday morning after the game. Thank you.

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