Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - RANKING: Alec Pierce, Colby Wooden Rank Among Colts' Best Moves of the Offseason

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Indianapolis Colts have made 11 re-signings or player acquisitions this offseason. So let's go through and rank them all together. Let's get to it. You are Locked-on Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to Locked-on Colts, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Now, the number one podcast network around. Hello, everyone.

Starting point is 00:00:34 My name is Zach Hicks, your resident film nerd of Horseshoehuddle.com, your favorite co-host here on the Locked-on Colts podcast. Today, we're going to be diving into all the Colts free agent moves thus far, all their acquisitions and resignings, and go through and rank them all in one big list here. I like to do tier lists, so we're going to do a bit of a tier list with that, but we'll do that in the first segment. And then afterwards, we're going to dive into the comp pick formula and how that has potentially impacted the Colts free agency thus far, especially with them projected to get

Starting point is 00:01:07 a couple picks in the 2027 draft. And then we're going to close it out in the final segment by looking at some players the Colts could still acquire that wouldn't impact that comp pick formula and could still be on the table for them prior to the NFL draft. But first, let's look at these players that the Colts have acquired or re-signed this offseason and rank them from best to worst in this, this Zach Hicks level tier list that I made here, starting off with just our home run signing, our player that I'm all four, and I think this was a great move for the Colts.

Starting point is 00:01:40 And the one guy I got in there is resigning Alec Pierce to that four-year contract. Now, I know some people are skeptical on like, can Alec Pierce be a number one wide receiver? He's never really had this load in the NFL. Is he capable of it? But I think it's a good projection for him going forward. I think he was one of the best receivers in football last year, especially past 10 yards. Pretty much every metric says that. The only thing you really have to project going forward is how effective he's going to be

Starting point is 00:02:07 under 10 yards. Can he handle going from 80 to 90 or 90 targets up to 130, 140 targets? And I think there is a lot of things to like in his profile that says he can do that. He's one of the best receivers in football on the vertical playing. And he was a top six receiver in the intermediate game last year in pretty much every metric. And then underneath, I think that you can just project that out with his big body, with his ability to beat press coverage. I think this is going to be a home run signing for the Colts. I think he's going to be a guy who hits over 1,000 yards consistently for the team,

Starting point is 00:02:40 as long as he can stay healthy. And I think his pairing with Daniel Jones and this Colts offense is very, very good. So I think the Colts locking him up, choosing him over Michael Pittman Jr. was a great win for them and getting him at a fairly decent contract. I mean, just a little bit more than Nico Collins, I think it's a big win for this Colts team. So I think that was by far and away their best move of the offseason, a 26-year-old wide receiver that's only getting better and opens up so much. for your offense. It's a move the Colts had to do, and they were able to get it done.

Starting point is 00:03:10 So resigning Alec Pierce to that big contract, easily the biggest move and best move of the offseason, in my opinion. My next tier I have here is the younger, faster, and also intriguing tier. So when Chris Ballard said in his end of season presser that we want to get younger and faster on defense, it's kind of hard to do that in free agency because free agency is usually filled of guys going for their second, third or fourth contracts in the NFL. So you're not going to find too many guys under the age of 30 or under the age of 28 in this league hitting free agency. But they did find two players that intrigue me quite a bit.

Starting point is 00:03:45 First one is Kobe Wooden, the defensive tackle they acquired in the Zire Franklin trade. Wooden is a guy who has moved all across the defensive line with the Green Bay Packers and found a little bit of a home at nose tackle last year, despite being like a 29 pound player. I think with the Colts, he's going to play a lot more. tech if they can get him in that 280, 285 range. I think he can be a great fit there. And he gives me a lot of DeNico Autry vibes with his violent hands,

Starting point is 00:04:11 his powerful play style and just his potential as a pass rusher. I know it hasn't come to fruition yet as a pass rusher. But I think there are a lot of great signs on film. And I think if we can get him in more three tech situations, we can see some of that potential come out with Kobe Wood. And so I'm very intrigued by him. I think he's my favorite outside acquisition of the offseason. but Juanier Thomas, the safety from the Dallas Cowboys also has plenty of intrigue.

Starting point is 00:04:36 Only three starts last season that were limited because he was suffering migraines. He did go into detail about those migraines in a recent interview with Colts beat reporters and said that it was more of a nerve issue than anything else. And he feels good about the treatment and good going forward. And that shouldn't be an issue. So this 25-year-old safety is kind of done at all with the Cowboys. Played strong safety, played free safety, a very good special teamer as well with a lot of tackles and a block kick even back in

Starting point is 00:05:02 23. And I think he projects really well at being like a strong safety that could fill Nick Cross's void on the defense if he has a good and healthy off season. I think he's a better man coverage guy than Cross was. And I think he shows the ability to run the alley pretty well and fit against the run pretty well as well. So I think that he does project really well to being a young starter that the Colts could really rely on next year if he has a good and healthy camp.

Starting point is 00:05:28 So Juanje Thomas, I like the bet on him. I like getting him in here. And we'll see exactly what his ultimate role is in this defense. But I think just getting this younger player makes a lot of sense for the Colts. And it's a really good bet on a guy who looked pretty good in his couple of snaps last year on defense and his couple starts last year on defense as well. Next tier I have here is the simply had to do it tier. You know, the tier that you really had to just do it, there was no other way about it. The first player I have in here is Daniel Jones.

Starting point is 00:05:59 Look, I know a lot of people were speculating about, oh, Kyler Murray for so much cheaper and all this for so much cheaper, the Colts made their bed with what they were going to do this offseason. They committed to Daniel Jones verbally, internally, externally, any which way it was all about just getting it on paper. Daniel Jones was a great fit for the offense early last season before the injury. And a lot of just resigning him came down to where you felt with the injury. Because look, before he got hurt,

Starting point is 00:06:25 he was playing some really good football. Even with the broken fibula, he was playing some pretty good football in those last two games before he got hurt, including one of the best performances this season against that Houston Texans defense that I think is a little bit underrated now that we're looking back on the season. So, yeah, Daniel Jones, I think, is going to be the Colts quarterback for almost all of next season. Hopefully he could stay healthy and be their guy. And I think the Colts getting him on a two-year contract was a big win for the organization

Starting point is 00:06:51 as well so you could pivot if anything goes wrong. So the Colts had to do it. Daniel Jones is their guy. They've committed to them, and we will see what it leads to in 2026 and beyond. The next player actually put it in here, though, was also Mo Ali Cox. Now, the Colts want to play more 12 personnel. They want to be more of a tight end dependent type of offense. And a player like Ali Cox is necessary to maximize Tyler Warren.

Starting point is 00:07:13 You have to have that big blocking tight end alongside a move tight end like Warren to really let him do what he does best. And Mo Ali Cox had a very good season last year as a blocker. So getting him back on another deal, big time win for the team. The Forever Colt Moali Cox was a major asset last year. And in my opinion, one of the most underrated players on the roster. One of the key cogs in the machine that was the Colts offense early last season. So getting him back was vital for this team. Next list I have here is it fits the mold, just kind of fits what the Colts are going for.

Starting point is 00:07:47 And that is veteran pass rusher Arden Key, who had a slow start to his NFL career, but really found his rhythm in the last. five years. He is a little bit like getting up there in age, almost 30 years old, and I don't think he's as effective as what he was with the 49ers and with the Jacksonal Jaguars, even that first year in Tennessee as well. But he does fit what they're looking for in terms of explosive off the snap, a speed rusher off the bench. The guy you can drop into coverage, a player who can win on stunts. I think he makes a ton of sense for what the Colts are going for. So Arden Key, I like the signing, and I think he's going to be a key third rusher alongside

Starting point is 00:08:20 Laiatu Latu and then whoever the heck they're starting. at the other defensive end role going forward. Another tier here I have is meh. We'll see. We'll just see what these guys bring. That is Michael Clemens, Drew Ogletree, and Jonathan Owens. And I guess you can put Laquan Treadwell in here as well, where they are, you know, bottom of the roster, special teamers,

Starting point is 00:08:40 depth players. I'm not over like just going crazy about either of those guys or any of these guys here. But I think they can be fine role players for what they are and just bring something to the bottom of the roster into special teams. especially like Laquan Treadwell on special teams and Jonathan Owens on special teams. That's where we're going to really see those guys shine next season. So inconsequential type signings, I think they're fine, but we'll see what they can ultimately bring.

Starting point is 00:09:05 And then the final tier is just the LOL tier. Like, what are we doing here? Derrick Nottie, defensive tackle from the Kansas City Chiefs. Look, I love that they got a big defensive tackle in here, but the film is just dreadful with Nottie last season. If he's seeing any defensive snaps next year, we're in trouble with this goal. team. I don't know why the Colts needed to get him in here on a vet minimum contract one week in a free agency, but they did. And the only positive that could come out of this is if he

Starting point is 00:09:33 makes the opening roster, the second the chiefs have a defensive tackle injury, you could probably trade him back to the Chiefs for a seventh round pick. Outside of that, I don't know any other positive with having Derek Nadi on the roster, but we will see. He's a player. I think I saw the description where wherever he starts on the snap is where he's going to end up on the play. Like he's not moving forward or backwards. So I guess that's something, but we'll ultimately see what happens with Derek Nadi. But that is ranking all the Colts moves so far. Next up, we're going to dive into the comp pick game and how the Colts potentially getting two comp picks in 2027 has impacted their free agency thus far. But first, workplace chaos, deadline stacking up, inbox

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Starting point is 00:11:13 and support our show by saying that you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply need to hire. This is a job for Indeed sponsored jobs. Already locked on Colts Everydayers, we are back talking about comp picks and how comp picks have impacted the Colts free agency thus far. But first, if you guys are interested, join at the Everyday Air Club now with Code March and get your first month for free. If you sign up before the NCAA tournament tips off this Thursday, you can compete against me and Jake in our men's and women's bracket pools on Discord. The women's bracket pool are women's bracket pools on Discord as well.

Starting point is 00:11:54 the winner in each will get $100 in Locked-on merch. The rest of us can commiserate in the members-only chats as our brackets below up, which I know mine will within the first couple of games. And as a member of the club, you get an ad-free version of this show. Again, it's all free for a month with code March at locked-oncultz. So, guys, the comp-pick formula gets talked about every single off-season where people think all these different things about what it actually is. So I'm going to give you the over-the-cap definition of what comp picks are, and then we'll break down what applies and what doesn't apply.

Starting point is 00:12:28 So according to over-the-cap, in each draft, the NFL awards at least 32 additional picks for certain players, coaches, and executives who depart from their previous teams. When we talk about certain players, though, the only players that qualify are unrestricted free agents that were going to be unrestricted originally going into the new league year. So if a player's contract ended going into the new league year, that player does qualify for the comp pick formula. So players like Quitty Pay, Nick Cross, Braden Smith, who are naturally becoming free agents, those guys apply to the comp pick formula, whereas players who were restricted in any way, players who were released from teams, players who get traded from teams, those players do not apply to the comp pick formula.

Starting point is 00:13:13 And that is how these are divvied out. Now, when you sign a player, so say the Colts signed a player for $10 million as an average annual salary, if they lose a player at that same average, then any compick they would get for that player lost is canceled out by the player they brought in. So this whole formula is built to, I don't want to say reward teams, but kind of compensate teams for losing free agents. It's kind of like rewarding you for developing players, but compensating you for losing players on the open market. So if a team in one offseason doesn't see any outside free agent and loses like four high quality free agents that are all making like 10 plus million dollars on the open market, that team can refill their cupboard with comp picks and rebuild up their team from the draft that way. That's kind of the way that the NFL sees it. So when we're looking at this Colts off season thus far, they have made a couple of free agent signings that have canceled out comp picks that they would have made. So Arden Key, for instance, his annual average salary was close enough to Brayden's.

Starting point is 00:14:12 Smith to where the Colts potentially getting a six-round pick for losing Braden Smith got canceled out. We can also look at that with Michael Clemens and Neville Gallimore, where the Colts would have potentially got a seventh round pick for Neville Gallimore. That got canceled out because of the Michael Clemens signing. So those are two picks that the Colts are probably not going to get because of those contracts, but the Colts are currently on pace to get a fourth for Quitty Pay and a six for Nick Cross at this stage. Now, the Colts, we're talking to Trey Hendrickson earlier in the off season, if they would have landed Trey Hendrickson, I think they would have been perfectly fine losing out on that fourth round pick for Quitty Pay if it meant getting Trey Hendrickson.

Starting point is 00:14:50 But when it comes to these other, this like next tier of pass rushers, the Judevian Clownies, Joey Bosa's, Cam Jordan, A.J. Ipena, is it worth losing that future fourth round pick for any of those caliber of guys? That's what the Colts really have to navigate towards this offseason is, do we want to lose this fourth or even the six round pick? right now for players who are kind of marginal upgrades at best, and maybe we can get them after the draft, because that's another part of this equation when it comes to the comp pick formula, is once these unrestricted free agents, they're still on the market on the Monday following the NFL draft, none of them apply to the comp pick formula.

Starting point is 00:15:30 So the compic formula is basically set in stone that Monday after the draft. So any unrestricted free agent you sign after that is fair game. It doesn't apply to the formula whatsoever. So if you're the Colts, like, yes, you can be aggressive and say, let's go get a Bosa or an Epinessa right now because we don't know if they'll be there come that Monday. But if they are available that Monday, then you can sign them and still keep this potential fourth round pick going forward, the sixth round pick going forward. Another part of this equation, too, that I think a lot of you guys are going to comment

Starting point is 00:15:58 and talk about is why should the Colts care? You know, Chris Ballard might not be here on that next season. Why should they care about a fourth or a six round pick when they just need to get better at this point. I think that's a very fair question, but I think it kind of goes in line with what the cults have been doing this whole off season, where Carly Ursa has kind of steered them in a direction where it is aggressive. Like they're paying a lot out of pocket right now for Alec Pierce and Daniel Jones, but there are kind of reservations in there. I mean, Daniel Jones signed a two-year contract, right? There's outs in Arden Key and Michael Clemens' contracts.

Starting point is 00:16:31 Alec Pierce even has a pretty big out, I think, after two years or two or three years in his contract as well. So it is kind of like this measured aggression that we were seeing from the Colts. I think part of being measured and aggressive is playing the comp pick formula game. So losing a fourth round pick would be pretty impactful for the team, even though it's not like the biggest deal in the world, it still does matter for future team building and whoever the future GM might be next off season. Another thing I want to just throw out there too before we get to potential players the

Starting point is 00:17:02 Colts could go after that don't affect this formula as of right now. or we're still waiting to see on the contract details from Rodney Thomas, Samson, Ebukom, and Shaguenobu, and also Danny Pinter, who was just signed as well, if any of those players hit a certain threshold, they could apply for comp picks. I don't expect any of them, too, because the threshold is usually around like $4 to $5 million per season. I would be shocked if any of those players got close to that money,

Starting point is 00:17:27 but we'll see and also we'll see if the Colts gave Jonathan Owens anything significant enough that would apply to this. or, I mean, Neville Gallimore, I think was the vet minimum. Juanio Thomas will see. I don't think he applies to it because he was supposed to be restricted and the Cowboys just didn't tender him so he shouldn't apply. So there are still some parts of the puzzle that we are kind of looking at going forward. But as of right now, again, the Colts are projected at fourth and sixth round comp picks in 2027.

Starting point is 00:17:55 And I think that it has led to a little bit of stagnation in recent days where, oh, why do they keep signing all these debt players or why are they just resigning their own players because those players don't impact their fourth and their sixth round pick that are coming in 2027. So what can the Colts do that until the draft? Is it just done now until the draft? Absolutely not. They can still make some signings. So coming up, we're going to talk about recently released players they could go after, trades they could make, and also the free free agents, which are non-tendered, restricted free agents that also don't apply to the comp pick formula. But first, what if sports were traded like markets? Now you can get your sports eye.

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Starting point is 00:19:37 Colts projecting to get a fourth and a six rounder in 2027, and that's, of course, through Over the Cap, I want to give proper credit because they do fantastic work over at overthecap.com. Projecting the Colts to get that fourth and that six round pick next year has impacted their aggression and free agency, but that doesn't mean they have to just completely stop using free agency. There are still free agents they can sign or players they can trade for that don't impact the comp pick formula. So the first one is internal free agents, your own internal free agents.

Starting point is 00:20:06 your own internal free agents have no impact whatsoever on the compic formula. So players right now that the Colts could still resign, Amir Abdullah, Tyler Goodson, Jermaine Pratt, Cameron Mitchell. Jermaine Pratt, I think he's actually the big one here because, again, if you're looking at the Colts linebacker room, just adding anybody to that room would probably make some sense. Jermaine Pratt with his familiarity with Lou Anirumo and with his overall fine play that he gave the Colts last year, I think that that could be a signing that

Starting point is 00:20:36 makes a lot of sense for this Colts team. So Jermaine Pratt, if the Colts were to re-sign him, much like with Marley Cox and Drew Ogletree and Lequan Treadwell, it doesn't hurt the Colts in their compic formula whatsoever. So Jermaine Pratt, I think makes a lot of sense. Cameron Mitchell makes some sense as well. He played some good football late and get him back at a pretty cheap deal and have him compete in that cornerback room. So those internal free agents, again, do not apply to that compic formula.

Starting point is 00:21:01 Some other options that don't apply, though, trade targets, right? If you go out and make a trade for a Jonathan Grenard, a Kvon Tibido, a Josh Sweat, right? If the Colts were to acquire any of those players, it wouldn't hurt their ability to make that fourth and that six-round pick still next offseason with the current comp pick formula. And also it could incentivize the Colts to be more aggressive in their trade for those players. Like say, you know, working through the trade comp for these guys, like if you can get a Jonathan Grenard, if you can get like a third this year and a fourth next year for him, right? if you can trade a third this year and a fourth next year for them, you feel more comfortable moving that next year fourth

Starting point is 00:21:38 when you know you have a comp pick coming in to basically replace that fourth round pick lost. Right. So it's like you have extra ammunition. You can trade that comp pick, but you can trade your own pick because you know that comp pick is coming in. Same with like a, again, Josh Wedder or a Tibido trade. If their market's a little bit less than Grenard and it's taking like two fourth or a fourth and a fifth,

Starting point is 00:21:58 you know that you're getting a fourth and a six next year basically for free, for free. to be a little more inactive and free agency, I guess. And you can be more aggressive trading those picks in this year's draft or next year's draft because you're going to restock that covered of comp picks next off season. So that could apply to the trade logic that we see from the Colts. And we've got to keep that in mind if, say, again, like if they trade a third and then a fourth next year for Grenard, that would be kind of their logic with that fourth round pick being added in there.

Starting point is 00:22:27 The third round pick would just have to be part of it. But potential fourth going in there as well would be like, hey, we're replacing that already with the compic formula. So again, trades don't apply to the formula at all. And also free agents that were released prior to the new league year or just released in general, right? So a defensive end like Anthony Jennings from the New England Patriots, he was released shortly into the new league year. The Colts could sign him with no threat whatsoever to the compic formula. A couple linebackers here as well, Bobby O'Caricay, Akeem Davis Gaither, and Chris Bore.

Starting point is 00:22:59 Chris Bore is more of a special teamer type guy, but he's played some on defense. But the two that we're really looking at here are Bobby O'Caricay and Akeem Davis Gather, right? Bobby O'Caricay, his experience in Indy, his relationship with the team and the organization, a good coverage backer still at this point in his career, maybe a marginal upgrade over his Iir Franklin, but still an upgrade, I think. Nonetheless, I think O'Karekah would make a lot of sense. And then Akeem Davis Gaither, you know, we talked about with Pratt, where Pratt is a player who has that familiarity with Lou Anirumo. Akeem Davis Gather also played multiple years under Anorumo went to the Cardinals last season, started 13 games, was ultimately released heading

Starting point is 00:23:37 into this offseason. But again, a guy who has starting experience who can at least be an upgrade over Austin, Nijike and Jalen Carlize at this point prior to the draft. So those type of signings the Colts can still make with no threat to those comp picks and they would still be upgrades over what they have in the lineback room. I mean, honestly, in my opinion, the Colts should before the draft gets one of these three linebackers in, right? O'Kareke, Akeen Davis, Gay, or Jermaine Pratt. Get one of those guys signed in before the NFL draft, and you can feel fine about drafting two linebackers

Starting point is 00:24:10 and then have those three guys be your top linebackers next season. I think that makes a lot of sense for the Colts. But we'll see if that makes sense for them, I guess, because I know Ballard is very confident about his ability to draft linebackers. But some other released free agents, Dane Jackson, the cornerback from the Buffalo Bills. He's started quite a few games in his NFL career, could give some solid debt.

Starting point is 00:24:32 depth in there. And then some offensive linemen like Mackay Beckton, who was released by the Chargers and Calvin Anderson, who was released by the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Colts offensive line depth at the moment is just not very good. Their top depth players are Blake Freeland and Dalton Tucker, I guess, are really their top guys. So it wouldn't hurt to get some versatile players that they can buy low on who are released from their teams. I think Anderson and Beckton could make some sense for this Colts team. The last bit of free agents to talk about, though, are, I don't want to call them the free free agents, but they are the non-tendered, restricted free agents that they hit

Starting point is 00:25:10 the market. And these guys are usually like younger players who have never really gotten an opportunity on defense or offense, whatever it is, mostly special teamers at best. But they're still kind of like, again, 25, 26, 27-year-olds who could make some sense just to take a shot at them and fill out that off-season depth. So some notable players and notable maybe. more so for me than for you guys. You guys might be like, who the heck are these players?

Starting point is 00:25:34 But wide receiver Malik Keith, offensive lineman Laceda Smith, defensive tackle, Sam Kamara, defensive end, Taryn Jackson, cornerback, Sam Webb. These are some, again, these are former undrafted free agents or late round pick guys who hit the certain play threshold to be tendered free agents, and they just were not tendered by their team. So they can be signed with no threat of losing comp picks, but then again, they probably weren't going to. to get big enough contracts anyway to really factor into that equation.

Starting point is 00:26:04 So all this to say, the Colts can still make moves this offseason. But if you're hoping for them to go out there and get like a Joey Bosa right now or a Judevian Clowny right now or AJ Epinessa right now, there's a reason why we're not seeing that with the Colts. The comp pick formula is impactful for 2027 and they're having this kind of measured aggression currently. And they don't want to go over that measured aggression. And I completely understand it.

Starting point is 00:26:28 But they can still make some moves. in terms of like get a linebacker like O'Carkey, Davis Ather, Jermaine Pratt, they can still make a trade and be aggressive that way and use some of those picks in next year's draft when they know they have the comp picks coming in. So while we have seen the Colts kind of stagnate a little bit in free agency, I don't think they're completely done before the draft. We will see some moves. But if you're seeing like, again, this kind of measured like quieter Colts right now,

Starting point is 00:26:53 it's because they are waiting on those comp picks for next offseason to solidify first. So that is all I have for today. but again, I wanted to kind of give you guys that rundown while also ranking the Colts current acquisitions and resignings as of right now in the off season. But that's all I have for today again. Thanks for tuning in to today's Locked on Colts. We'll be back yet again tomorrow. So make sure you subscribe and follow Locked on Colts so you get all the latest episodes. And if you don't already, make sure you're following out Lockdown Colts at Jake Arthur and a felon at Zach Hicks 2 all on social media. And if you never miss an episode, the Everydayer Club is built for you.

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Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - RANKING: Alec Pierce, Colby Wooden Rank Among Colts' Best Moves of the Offseason

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