Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - REINFORCEMENTS: DeForest Buckner Returns as Colts Host 49ers on Monday Night

Starting point is 00:00:00 DeForest Buckner returns as the Colts get ready for a primetime matchup with the San Francisco 49ers. Let's get to it. You are Locked-on Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello, everyone. My name is Zach Hickshaw resident film nerd of Horseshoehuddle.com. Welcome to Lockdown Colts, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network. Today's episode is brought to you by Game Time. Download the GameTime app, create an account and use code Locked-on NFL for $20 off of your first purchase.

Starting point is 00:00:42 I appreciate you guys joining us here on Saturday evening, Sunday morning. Whenever you're listening to this podcast, our release schedule was a little weird this week because of the Monday night game. We want to get that final injury report in here before our final pregame show. So getting this news on DeForest Buckner was exactly the real. reason why. So we're going to talk about the injury report and most notably what DeForest Buckner status is for this game. Then we're going to dive into the Colts offense versus 49ers defense, the inverse, and then give the final score predictions and just random predictions that you guys love at the end of the show as well. But I already teased it. I already talked about

Starting point is 00:01:17 a couple of times DeForest Buckner should be back for the Colts for this Monday night game against the San Francisco 49ers. Buckner has been out since before the bye week, before that Falcons game before the buy. He's been on the injured reserve. list with a neck injury, neck injury that has been pretty serious for the Colts. I believe he, over the by week, he traveled out of the country to get like stem cell work on his neck to make sure that he can, you know, get that recovery process going. And it appears like he's going to be ready to play. Shane Stuyken did kind of commit and say like, yeah, we're excited to have him back.

Starting point is 00:01:49 He will be activated. He's officially questionable as of right now, but that's because he's not officially on the active roster. We saw the same thing last week, I believe, with Mooney Ward or two weeks. to go with Mooney Ward where they said the same thing and he was activated the next day. So tomorrow we'll see the news that Buckner is activated and he is ready to go and he'll be back out there for the Colts on Monday night. But talking about some players that are officially out, Sauce Gardner is still not playing in this

Starting point is 00:02:14 game. He has been ruled out. Anthony Gould has been ruled out. He's been dealing with injury the last couple weeks. And then two players that still remain on injured reserve, even though they had their 21-day window opened up, Anthony Richardson and Daniel Scott. both them did some light work this week, but both of them are still out for this game as well. So those four players would be out.

Starting point is 00:02:34 I wish the Colts defense could have got both their star players back out there. But, you know, beggars can't be choosers at this point of the year with the Colts. And just getting to Forrest Buckner back is a massive, massive boost to a defense that's actually played fairly well without him. I mean, we'll talk about it. We'll talk about the defense. But the run defense actually has hit like their best stretch of games and gears without him these last few weeks. So I can only imagine how much better it's going to be with him back on the field. One other notable injury update, though, is Berenhard Riemann, a player who we expected probably to be out this week,

Starting point is 00:03:07 was sporting a really, really big cast on his elbow halfway through last week's game and missed the rest of that game last week. He did log a limited practice here on Saturday, and he is questionable. Now, this seems like a very, very questionable, like designation, like a true game time decision. We probably won't know until sometime Monday, maybe Sunday evening, if he's going to be able to go. I still lean towards probably not being able to go for this game. It is a very big brace on there. And even if he wants to toughen it out, it seems like that injury is a bit too severe for a player to play through. But we'll see those players in the trenches are kind of insane.

Starting point is 00:03:46 I mean, the fact that DeForest Buckner is going to be back after a six-week absence with that neck injury. It tells you all you need to know about the toughness of these guys in the trenches. So it'll probably come down to just Ryman's comfort level playing with that big brace and if he really wants to gut it out there. But I would probably still expect Luke Tanuda to make his start at left tackle. But again, we shall see you there. By the time I'm recording this, the San Francisco 49ers have not officially released their final injury report because they'll be releasing it later at night because they're on the West Coast. But it looks like all their guys are trending towards playing in this game, except for wide receiver Ricky Pearsall. Now, this could change and he could get a questionable designation, but he had two.

Starting point is 00:04:25 did not practice as earlier in the week with a knee injury, and I'm just going to speculate here. They probably doesn't play, but again, that is subject to change as more information comes out. But it looks like Pearsall could be out for the 49ers this week. But, yeah, I mean, when we're looking at this matchup here, let's start with the Colts offense versus the 49ers defense. You know, the 49ers defense has just been ravaged by injuries all season long. They are down their top players on that side of the ball. And we know from personal experience here in Indy, what that kind of.

Starting point is 00:04:55 can do to your defense when you are without some of your best players. So in Indy, we've been without Buckner and Mooney and Sauce Gardner for a good chunk of this season. Well, San Francisco has been without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner for a good chunk of the season, two of their most highly impact players. Their first round rookie has been out all year as well, or most of the year as well. So they're dealing with a ton of injuries there, and it's really impacted their pass rush. They are one of the worst pass rushing teams in football. Honestly, you could just say they're the worst pass rushing team football. They have fewer sacks than Miles Garrett does this year by himself. I think they're at 16 sacks on the season. Their pressure rate, I believe, is the lowest in the NFL as well. It's

Starting point is 00:05:34 only like a 14% according to pro football reference, I believe. So they don't really impact quarterbacks at all. Robert Sala is not someone who typically blitzes at a high rate. So they usually just rush for. They've been very ineffective what they're for without having Bosa out there, without having McHale Walker out there. So they're just not generating a lot of pressure. So I think if you're the Colts, you know, to me, this is kind of the week where it's like, look, if Philip Rivers has any bit of an arm left,

Starting point is 00:06:03 you have to really lean into that a little bit this week. I'm not saying he's come out here and throw 60-yard bombs left and right because that's just not what's going to happen at this stage of his career, even the stage of his career he was at in 2020. But I do think this is a game where it's like you can draw up stuff a little bit past 10 yards, a little bit past like, you know, 15 yards maybe might be a little crazy, but like 10, 15 yards down the field and really wait for these plays to develop, you know, because I don't think they're going to pressure you too much, even with the potential the Colts are

Starting point is 00:06:33 out there to back up offensive tackles. They just have not gotten a lot of pressure all season long. So I think if you're the Colts, you know, this doesn't have to be the exact same game plan. It was against the Seattle Seahawks, where the Seahawks were a team that has a very high pressure rate, got a lot of sacks coming into that matchup, and you know they like to bring a lot of of pressure. So the Colts were kind of just going out there and drawing up everything under 10 yards. And it almost worked to success in that game. But I think against the 49ers with their lack of a pass rush, with their injuries, you know, they still fly around. They still play very fast. But I think you want to let plays develop a little bit more, you know, give your receivers

Starting point is 00:07:08 some time and space to get open and take advantage of those longer developing plays because you might have more time in the pocket. Now, Philip River still can't move. I'm not going to say that, you know, he can buy time or we should go back to the play action game because he really can't do that. But I do think you can draw up a little bit more than what they drew up last week in the Seahawks defense. That was more ready to bring pressure than I think the 49ers will be this week. So for the Colts, yeah, I think you got to take advantage of the fact that they don't get a lot of pressure. The advanced stats for the 49ers defense is just not great overall this year. They're a bottom 10 pass defense. They're like middle of the road and run defense. So hopefully

Starting point is 00:07:45 there's more just run lanes for Jonathan Taylor in this game. I don't expect the Colts to go under center too much because Philip Rivers is just not capable of going under center at this stage in his career, but I think they can be a little bit more diverse with how they run out of the gun and they get Jonathan Taylor going. So the big key for the Colts, obviously, will be holding up in pass protection, which seems like a better task this week than what it was last week,

Starting point is 00:08:09 using the running game and maybe the shotgun play action game to get misdirection on these young defenders that the 49ers are throwing out there and using their aggressiveness against them because for all the lack of talent they've had on that side of the ball all year, they've made up for it with tenacity and physicality and just flying downhill.

Starting point is 00:08:26 And I really like how they're coached on that side of the ball. But when you don't have star players, you're more prone to make mistakes and they just are lacking that star talent on that side of the ball right now. So if I'm the Colts, I really just like find my weak spots, find the guys that you feel can be exploited in both the past and the run game,

Starting point is 00:08:44 lean on the run game as much as you, can but when you have to pass you know don't be afraid of letting longer developing plays out there because the 49ers pass rush has been so bad this year so yeah i i kind of like the matchup on paper it really just comes down to how much juice can we really squeeze out of philip rivers at this point because if it's as much as they got last week you could go against the 30 second best defense or the first best defense you're probably going to get around the same result because you're just not going to draw up many explosive plays and maybe consistent plays on offense but if you can squeeze out just a little bit more, a little bit more down the field just a tad,

Starting point is 00:09:18 then you might have the potential to put some more points on the board against the weaker defense that the 49ers have compared to the Seahawks of last week. So we will ultimately see what the answer to that is on Monday night. But coming up, guys, we're going to talk about this Colts defense versus the 49ers offense. And while the 49ers offense hasn't been perfect this year, I still think this is a very tough task for Colts defense. It has been kind of up and down at times in 2025. But first, the World Cup is coming back to North America for the first time since 1994. And with 48 teams for the first time ever, it's going to be just massive.

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Starting point is 00:10:50 All right, Locked on Colts, Everydayers, we are back. Before we get into it, I do want to thank you for making Locked on Culture first, listen today and everyday. Thank you again for making Locked on the number one sports podcasting network. We're here previewing the Colts in 49ers before this big Monday night matchup. Both teams have playoff aspirations. The 49ers probably a little bit more realistic than the Colts at this point, but the Colts are still mathematically alive. I think it's by most prediction things or whatever, they have like a 98% chance to make the playoffs if they win out. Now that's the tough task for a team that has lost four straight, but nonetheless, it's still technically a possibility with where they lie in the season.

Starting point is 00:11:29 But for the Colts, when you're looking at this matchup with the 49ers offense, you know, the 49ers offense is not the Shanahan-led offense of old. Now, they've had a lot of injuries on offense as well. especially when it comes to wide receiver. Brandon Iyuk has not played this year and he's not going to play. Ricky Pearsall has been out for a good chunk of time this year. George Kittle missed time earlier this year as well. So they have been very banged up. But I think the biggest falloff has been their running game.

Starting point is 00:11:54 The 49ers have not run the ball effectively at all this season. Christian McCaffrey is inching closer and closer to 1,000 yards on the year, but he's doing it at 3.6 yards per carry. They're not getting very many explosive runs in the, running game and they kind of live and die by efficiency when it comes to running the football. High success rate, but lower explosive plays when it comes to running the football. So for the Colts, the thing is just getting as many negative plays as possible. When we look at what the Colts have done since the by week, even with the Forrest Buckner out, they've been fantastic in run defense.

Starting point is 00:12:29 They have 47% run stuff rate. So runs that are held to two yards rushing or fewer, they have 47% of runs against them. and that's me not counting QB sneaks and stuff. It's only counting running back runs. So a little bit more like more like in depth, I guess with that or just more like realistic of what the actual run defense is doing. The six best run defense in terms of success rate over that time period and their second best in EPA per play, a couple of force fumbles of help with that.

Starting point is 00:12:59 But they've been really good in run defense. And now you're inserting to Forrest Buckner back into that. So you have to assume that the run defense could get even better with such an impact. player out there for the team. So yeah, I mean, the first step to really slowing down this 49ers offense is making sure that they're just behind the sticks and making their running game, you know, held to one yard rushes and two yard rushes instead of four or five yard rushes. And, and that's really what the Colts need to do. It's what they've been great at recently because Brock Purdy is a good quarterback. And I, you know, in 2023, when Brock Purdy is up there for MVP, I was not a believer.

Starting point is 00:13:32 I was a firm Brock Purdy hater. But I've really come around these last two years, even though the stats haven't been as gaudy as what they were in 2023. I think he's played some pretty good football, despite a lot of issues around him. Now, he still has Shanahan drawing up plays, and Shanahan's one of one in the NFL, one of the best to do it. There's a reason why every

Starting point is 00:13:51 quarterback who touches that system is at least capable of playing in the NFL now because of him, but I think Purdy's been the best in that system for a reason. He can create out of the pocket, he can extend plays with his legs, and he can make things happen on the move and off balance, and that's something that

Starting point is 00:14:07 49ers quarterbacks have just never really been able to do under Kyle Shanahan, and that's why he's been so different. Now, the one thing I will say about Purdy, though, which is, which pertains to the Colts, is he does get into these habits where he is a little bit turnover prone. We've seen him with 10 plus interceptions, I think, just about every year of his career, he's on pace for that this year. If it weren't for the injuries, he'd certainly hit over 10 this year. So he can be a little bit reckless with the ball for some windows and, you know, as he's trying to make place happen outside of the pocket, get a little bit careless with it. So if you're the Colts, you know, those one to two, maybe three opportunities are going

Starting point is 00:14:41 to get in this game to take that football away, you have to capitalize, especially if we get the game plan that the Colts got this past week with Philip Rivers, where it's ball control, it's pinning them deep, it's winning a field goal battle. The one way that you can really win games is by taking the football away. That's really where they came up short against the Seattle Seahawks last week is, you know, they held them the field goals, they won in special teams, they won mostly with their defense, but they didn't take the football away to get three points for their offense. And because they didn't do that, that margin of error was so small that that led to their

Starting point is 00:15:13 loss ultimately by the end of the day. So if you're going to play this style of football where you rely on your defense, rely on your special teams to carry you, there needs to be turnovers involved in there. You can't have a net negative or a net zero in the turnover battle if you want to win football games this way. I remember back in the day, you know, Virginia Tech football in college used to always win this way. But a big part of Beamer ball was blocking kick. and taking the ball away, it's kind of the essence of what the Colts want to do right now with Philip Rivers at quarterback is play ball control, take that football away, and they just need to do it this week, especially against Brock Purdy, who's a little bit more turnover prone

Starting point is 00:15:48 than even a Sam Darnold, who I think is a little bit turnover prone as well. So it's all about taking advantage of those couple opportunities you're going to get. Hopefully, DeForest Buckner being back out there gives a little bit of a boost to their pass rush because the pass rush has been very up and down to, say the least, more down than other. I think since he's been out. They've gotten there with a couple of blitzes here and there, but for the most part, these quarterbacks, especially Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud

Starting point is 00:16:13 and those matchups have been relatively untouched on skates back there, throwing the football. So DeForest Buckner being inserted back in the lineup, hopefully just means good things for both him and Laotu, seeing a little bit less attention. Atatamiwa Adabori, seeing less attention. Could lead to some better things with that past rush up front. But yeah, ultimately it's about containing Brock Purdy,

Starting point is 00:16:34 keep him in the pocket. make sure that he can't do his thing where it gets out of the pocket, gets on the move, breaks a tackle in the backfield, and gets out of the pocket because that's how they create their explosive plays. They're not creating explosive plays in the running game. They're not creating explosive plays with guys making things happen after the casual, you know, dumping it down to George Kittle and he's going for 30. They're making their explosive plays from Purdy getting out of the pocket

Starting point is 00:16:56 and moving the football. We saw when Mack Jones was back there. They were an efficient offense, but not an explosive offense. They've been a lot more explosive with Brock Purdy this year. And that's going to be the, the key for this Colts team. We've seen them struggle with, you know, Trevor Lawrence getting out of the pocket in recent weeks, but hopefully with Buckner back out there, with the Colts, hopefully having a better plan for Purdy than they did for Trevor Lawrence that can contain

Starting point is 00:17:17 into that pocket that can just get after him, get that ball out of his hands as quick as possible, and make them be a dink and dunk offense. I know they're capable of doing it. They're very good offense with Kyle Shanahan drawing it up, but don't let them be explosive as well. Get after purdy, make him have to force some things because he's tired of the dink and dunk stuff. and maybe you can get your takeaways and get down the field. But, yeah, that's real. I mean, I know it's kind of, again, we always say it's coach speak because so much of your keys to victory are just kind of keys that you would have for every game.

Starting point is 00:17:45 But ultimately, you limit the runs on the early downs to one to two yard gains instead of three to four yard gains, keep that success rate as low as possible. And then when you get to those third and longs or those second in longs, make sure you contain Brock Purdy. Don't let him outside the pocket. Don't let him outside your grasp. And then I think the Colts can force some turnovers and get some things going their way. So I feel much better about this matchup with the Forrest Buckner playing.

Starting point is 00:18:08 Now, it remains to be seen how much he's going to play. We have seen in the past him have like snap limits and very like rotational minutes for the Colts. So we'll see how much he plays. But just having DeForest Buckner back out there, I think is a huge boost to this Colts defense and could sway some people in their predictions for this game. But coming up, did it sway my prediction? We'll talk about my final prediction for this game before the Monday night matinee with the San Francisco 40. Niners. But first, this episode is brought to you by prize picks.

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Starting point is 00:19:41 Prize picks, it's good to be right. Already, locked on Colts everydayers. We are back for a final time today before this Colts and 49ers Monday night matchup. I always said Monday Nightmare back in the day when I played fantasy football more religiously because Monday night used to always kill me in fancy football. It was like the death of me, basically, is relying on that Monday night game.

Starting point is 00:20:08 So hopefully it's not a Monday nightmare for the Colts this time around. But, you know, the Colts are fighting for their playoff lives right now. They essentially need to win out to really put themselves in good position to make the playoffs. And while this is the least important game of the final three, it's still a game to show yourself, show you can get out of this rut that they're in with this four-game losing streak. So on paper, I really like this matchup for the Colts. I think analytically, a lot of things. things do lean the Colts way. It's just the issue is one team has their starting quarterback

Starting point is 00:20:38 and the other team is down to their eBug quarterback in Phillip Rivers. And that is something that does ultimately sway football games. So again, I said it a lot this week when we talked about just that the nature of this Colts team, if they're going to be so reliant on this ball control, moving the football on offense three yards on a cloud of dust type of offense, where any kind of turnover could really just kill everything they want to do on that side of the ball. The margin for error is just so small, and I don't know if a team like Sanfran is going to shoot themselves in the foot enough to help you win that way. You know, the Seahawks barely did enough, and they were still able to overcome it by the end

Starting point is 00:21:17 of that game because they're a well-coached team that just knows how to win. So when it comes to the 49ers, I don't know if that style is going to absolutely beat them. It certainly can, especially because the 49ers think are a little bit more vulnerable than the Seahawks. but yeah, I just hate the style of football for actually consistently winning football games. And for that, I am probably going to pick the 49ers in this game. I'll say it'll be like an ugly one. Let's go 19 to 16 49ers at the end of this game.

Starting point is 00:21:46 Kind of similar to last week's game against the Seahawks. I guess the Niners get a touchdown in there instead of the Seahawks not getting any. But I think this is going to be an ugly game. I think both these offenses are just kind of avoid of explosive plays right now. now, the Colts, I guess, have the one X factor in Jonathan Taylor, and Taylor gets going, then I guess they could have some more explosive running plays. But, you know, the 49ers offense doesn't create many explosives. They just don't have many avenues for that right now, especially with McCaffrey struggling to create explosives at running back. And for the Colts,

Starting point is 00:22:18 their passing game is just devoid of it. Like outside of screenplays that just hit big, I don't know if the Colts can create many explosive plays with Phillip Rivers at quarterback. So it becomes this ball-controlled game where, whichever team doesn't turn the football over, doesn't shoot themselves in the foot, doesn't make big mistakes, is going to win. And what have we seen from the Colts these last four weeks? A team that has constantly shot themselves in the foot, even against Seattle, where Seattle was helping the Colts by dropping a lot of footballs with their wide receivers in that game. We saw the Colts fumble snaps. We saw the Colts have their quarterback slip and fall on the

Starting point is 00:22:51 logo. We saw, you know, other, we saw a false start on a fourth and one attempt that, a fourth and one attempt that was not going to convert either. Like, we have seen the Colts kind of consistently shoot themselves in the foot over and over again in recent weeks and they kind of have to prove to me that they can't they won't do that you know before i can really have faith in picking them so yeah on paper i love this matchup for the colt you know you're going against a team that is pretty short-handed just like you you're going against a team that is not very explosive that doesn't run the ball exceptionally well and their defense can't really pressure the quarterback so it's like you know all things point to the colts being able to get over that hump in winning this game but i have to

Starting point is 00:23:29 see more from Philip Rivers, and I just don't know how much more is there from him. You know, I think he can get the ball out of his hands quick. I think he can diagnose a blitz that's coming or diagnose a disguise coverage and get that ball out where it needs to be. But can he push that ball past 10 yards? Can he make this offense more than just dink and dunk and make this offense more explosive? I don't know if he has that capability. Nothing I saw last week told me that he does, and I need more information before I can confidently say he can. So even though I think a lot of the matchups on paper point the Colts way. This 49ers team has been resilient all season.

Starting point is 00:24:04 They're a well-coached team, and Kyle Shanahan has found a way to squeeze every single point he can out of this offense that has been dinged up and has turned to their backup quarterback for eight games this year. They found a way to win games and put points on the board. And the Colts have just simply not, you know, when things were going well early in the season, when they were facing bad teams, when they were playing at home, then they were able to stomp on teams next. But the second adversity hit, second injuries piled up, the second that players started missing games and they start playing against better football teams,

Starting point is 00:24:36 we've seen the cracks in the armor, which had been very different from the 49ers, where the 49ers continually get over that hump. The Colts have continually lost these 50-50 games. Because outside of Jacksonville, all the Colts losses have been these like coin flip games that really come down to the final stretch, maybe not Pittsburgh either. But outside of those two games, all the Colts losses have been these tightly contested games against either playoff teams or fringe playoff teams. And they haven't shown that resiliency. They haven't shown that ability to close out these games and win these big games where a team like Sam Fran has consistently fought tooth and nail in every single matchup despite all their injuries. So if it comes

Starting point is 00:25:12 down to just these two teams and a closely like a close match or whatever here on Monday night, I'm going to pick the team that has constantly shown it over and over again. But it's a big test for the Colts. Again, this is probably their least important game remaining, but you still want to get out of this four-game losing streak before you face your two biggest games of the year in the final two weeks. So big showing at home, show they can get back to what they're doing. And big showing for Phillip Rivers is a show that he can still push that ball a little bit. Now that he's back in a controlled environment in the dome, back home, things should be a little bit easier than on the road in Seattle and kind of rainy conditions for

Starting point is 00:25:48 your first game back. So Rivers can show a little bit more. I think the Colts should be favored in this game. I just don't know if you can show much more is the big thing. But in terms of random predictions, you know, I do like a lot of the Colts defense stuff in here. Like, I do think, you know, they get like two takeaways in this game or one takeaway or two takeaways could come off of this game. I want to get like a force fumble and an interception in this one. Let's give an interception to bind him because he's gotten a ton this year. And yeah, let's get Buckner a sack. I think would be a random prediction to give in here. For the offense, though, I just, I struggle with the offense, man,

Starting point is 00:26:26 because I just don't know what Rivers is capable of. He was so hard to watch last week. I think this can be a big, let's give it to Downs again. I tried to say Downs last week. He did catch the touchdown, but they did have a couple opportunities that didn't go his way. But I still think Josh Downs is the way to go with Phillip Rivers at quarterback. You know, use him on those option routes, use them on those quick hitters. Use them out of the backfield even to get some matchups you like.

Starting point is 00:26:53 I still think Josh Downs is the way to go. We don't have to just force feed Amir Abdullah when Josh Downs is perfectly capable of getting open underneath. So I know we've been calling on him all year, but I want to give a call for Josh Downs. Let's get him the leading receiver in this game, really feed him against the 49ers and let him do his thing. But you guys let me know any predictions you have in the comment section. And let me know your overall guest for this game. Do the Colts extend their losing streak to five games? or they snap it back at home in this Monday night game.

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Starting point is 00:27:53 We back with you guys for the Colt Squad show after the game on Monday night. It's going to be a late one, but after that game on Monday night.

Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - REINFORCEMENTS: DeForest Buckner Returns as Colts Host 49ers on Monday Night

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