Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Should Indianapolis Colts Make Big Move for Marvin Harrison Jr.?

Starting point is 00:00:00 For many Colts fans, finding a way to land Marvin Harrison Jr. is a dream scenario in the upcoming draft. But how steep of a price is too steep? Let's get to it. You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. What is up? Thanks for tuning in and making us your first listen of the day. This is your daily podcast covering your Indianapolis Colts, part of the Locked On Podcast Network,

Starting point is 00:00:47 your team every day. And today's episode is brought to you by Jace Medical. Empower yourself when you purchase a Jace case, providing you with a personal supply of five antibiotics that treat 50 plus infections. Get yours today at jacemedical.com and use code LOCKEDON to get $20 off your order. That's J-A-S-E Medical.com. Welcome to the show, everybody. I am Jake Arthur, and he is Zach Hicks. You know the two of us from HorseshoeHuddle.com.

Starting point is 00:01:15 And today, I have a feeling this first topic, it's not the last time we're going to mention it before the end of April, but Marvin Harrison Jr. and the Colts. Obviously, Marvin Harrison Sr. is among the best of the best NFL receivers of all time. Spent his entire career here with the Colts. His son is that dude, arguably the top offensive position player in this upcoming draft, non-quarterback division. And the Colts have an outside chance of doing something and getting them if they really tried. So that's going to be a hot topic of conversation for the next few months. So we're going to tackle that.

Starting point is 00:01:53 What would it take for the Colts to trade up and get them? And is that price just too steep? And then we're also going to look at free agency. The Colts do have quite a bit of money that they can spend, but as we know, they have some guys they need to check off of their own list internally. But is this now the time to make a big move? And will Chris Ballard actually make a big move? He's perhaps left some breadcrumbs with his recent post-season media availability. So we'll dive into that as well. But first, Zach, let me segue this beautifully into the fact that you on Tuesday wrote,

Starting point is 00:02:32 kind of wrote this up, this Marvin Harrison Jr. scenario over at horseshoehuddle.com. Obviously, you know, the term generational prospect gets thrown around a lot, but like Marvin Harrison Jr. is a legit huge uh prospect like he guys like that don't come around all the time the Colts are sitting at the 15th pick he's likely to be a top five pick uh so the Colts could do it and not necessarily give up the farm uh but should they like first what do you think it would take, and what's your gauge on just how expensive that would be for a young team like the Colts who do need future assets?

Starting point is 00:03:14 Yeah, I mean, when you're looking at what it would cost to move from middle of the teens all the way up into the top five, I mean, I think a really good marker for that, we've been looking at the trade between the Arizona Cardinals and the Houston Texans last year in the 2023 NFL draft, which was the Texans were sitting at number 12. They moved up to the third overall pick to select Will Anderson Jr. out of Alabama, the pass rusher, who, fantastic pass rusher,

Starting point is 00:03:41 but the Texans had to give up quite a bit to get up there. I mean, they gave up the 12th overall pick in last year's draft. They gave up the 33rd overall pick in last year's draft, which is essentially, I mean, it's a second round pick, but it's the very, very first pick of the second round. So it's essentially like giving up another first round pick. And then you're giving up first round pick this year as well. The upcoming draft, the 2024 draft, they gave up the Cleveland Browns first round pick. And then you're giving up first round pick this year as well. The upcoming draft, the 2024 draft, they gave up the Cleveland Browns first round pick. And then they also gave up their own third round pick in the 2024 draft as well. So if you're looking at the value there, it's

Starting point is 00:04:14 what two, two surefire first round picks, one being in the top 15, another one that's going to end up being what around 20, another pick that was nearly a first rounder and then like a middle of the third round pick as well. That's a lot of value to move up nine spots. Now for the Colts to get into range to select Marvin Harrison Jr., you have to presume that number four is where you're looking at because there are three quarterbacks in this class. I'm not saying all three quarterbacks go one, two, three, but four know, four is probably where the conversation starts for Marvin Harrison jr. And then it probably ends by about five or six. I mean, he's not going to fall much further than that. Uh, especially when at the combine, he's going to come in at like six,

Starting point is 00:04:55 four to 10 and run in the four threes. Like this guy's not going to fall outside that top four, five, six range. Uh, so if you're looking at it for the Indianapolis Colts, you know that you're going to have to give up either equal to the amount that the Texans gave up to go up there and get Willie Anderson last year, or even more than that, because this is such a highly sought after player because there are teams that might be trying to go up there for, you know, quarterback or a tackle or something. And also because you're moving into that top five from, you know, even 12 is closer to the beginning of the draft. I mean, 15, I mean, logically, obviously coming with the math there, but you know, look, it'd be great to get Marvin Harrison jr, but that is a hefty, hefty price to

Starting point is 00:05:35 pay to get into the top five, especially in this current landscape we're seeing with wide receivers. I mean, I'm not going to say, look at this one outlier and that says never draft a receiver in the top five. But I think when you look at, I mean, arguably three of the five best receivers in the NFL this past season were Puka Nakua, Amon Ross, St. Brown, and Nico Collins, all guys taken outside of the first round, two of which were taken on day three of their respective drafts. Two of them were all pros. Nico Collins had a, had a great case for all pro as well.

Starting point is 00:06:08 So like we're seeing this current landscape where young receivers taken all across the entire draft are producing at high levels. Like again, I would take Harrison jr. If we were there in the top five, I totally get it. But when you're factoring in how much you're giving up to go up there and get them,

Starting point is 00:06:24 even if he is the next AJ Green, that's so much to give up in today's landscape of the NFL where, you know, we're getting like 30 receivers a season that are getting thousand yards receiving. I mean, I think it was 27 last year, hit a thousand yards. And that doesn't even include like, I think two tight ends hit a thousand yards as well. So when you factor all that in, you can get a 1,000-yard receiver where you're picking at 15 or outside the first round. You don't have to give up so much. So it comes down to value. I mean, at the end of the day, gun to my head, the only position I would trade up that much for would be for a quarterback. Going up there for a positional player just hurts so much of your team building.

Starting point is 00:07:10 Even if Marvin Harrison Jr. is this next great receiver, it's not worth all the product, all the prospect stuff that you're going to have to give up to get up there. I love the thought of it. I love the thought of him coming to Indy, but it just feels like a dream that's not really attainable in my eyes. The second the Colts won their seventh game of the year, their sixth game of the year, it just became out of reach for the Colts I agree and I think a position like receiver is too reliant on the things around it like just I mean now Michael Pittman Jr. just had a great season don't get me wrong but we've seen Alec Pierce for example someone who was very hamstrung by the quarterback play like it just did not mesh well. And now Marvin Harrison Jr., I'm pretty,

Starting point is 00:07:48 I'm sure he's the type of player who would be productive regardless. But let's just say you draft a player, you put all those chips in on drafting a player like Marvin Harrison Jr. And then God forbid the guy who you're tasking to throw him the ball goes down. And then now you have like a Gardner Minshew type that comes in and doesn't throw the ball downfield. And you're just totally stripping down what makes that player special because of, you know, the receiver position is just too reliant on those factors.

Starting point is 00:08:22 So I totally agree. Like Zyra Franklin said on his show the other day, The Trenches, though, if Harrison Jr. starts going outside of the top five and everything, the conversation starts to shift a little bit and maybe the price isn't quite the same. Oh, that's not what he said, Jake. He said if he falls outside the top five,

Starting point is 00:08:39 you send every single thing in Indy that's not nailed down to get him. That's what he said. He didn't say the price drops. He didn't say the price drops. He didn't say the price drops. He says whatever the price is, you match it to go up there. And look, I get it. I love it. I love the thought of having a player like that in Indy

Starting point is 00:08:55 because I'm not even trying to use this segment to say Marvin Harrison Jr. is not worth all the hype that he has. He's a fantastic player, a Litnikoff winner, uh, this past season, uh, one of the best overall players in college football, one of the best receivers we've seen in college football, uh, in the last, you know, 10, 20 years, even, uh, I just, I just don't, I just can't get on board with giving up that much for a player who hasn't even played a snap in the NFL. Heck, even if we're talking about giving up that much for Justin Jefferson, you much for Justin Jefferson,

Starting point is 00:09:26 you know, Justin Jefferson, fantastic player, superstar receiver, but the Vikings have had that the last couple of years. And where have they gone with that fantastic receiver, superstar receiver? Like, unless you're going up there and getting a quarterback that you believe can be a top five quarterback in football, it's never really worth giving up, you know, two plus first round picks for a position player or for a non quarterback. So look, he could be as good as a Justin Jefferson. He really could be that good in the NFL, but just logistically, it doesn't make sense giving up that

Starting point is 00:09:56 many shots at quality players across the board for your team for one player who can't do it all by themselves. Totally agree. And I have zero doubt that Harrison is going to be a legitimate player. I've seen him in person. I was at Ohio State's Pro Day last year. Like he's going to be good. He's going to blow the combine or whatever testing he decides to do out of the water. He checks all the boxes when you scout for a receiver like he's going to be good. But like you, I just I just think for how far away the Colts are in the draft order,

Starting point is 00:10:25 it's just going to be too much. So coming up, there's more to talk about when it comes to taking these big swings, but we'll look at free agency. Locked on Colts is sponsored by BetterHelp. Sometimes we all need the opportunity to get something off of our chest, big or small, certain things we can really, they can just start to just grind on you. And it's important to let that out, especially to someone who's unbiased on your life. So today, I want to say how I really feel about something. And a lot of you fantasy heads will agree with me.

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Starting point is 00:14:00 PrizePix, daily fantasy sports made easy. All right, Jake, we're talking Colts free agency or just Colts offseason in general. The big topic of conversation is, okay, maybe they're not going to move up from Marvin Harrison Jr. Maybe that's not the big move, but eventually we got to see this team take that big swing because as Chris Ballard mentioned in his end of the season presser, which you're going to give us the exact quotes here in a second, Jake, he mentioned that they have this rare opportunity with the financial flexibility of a rookie quarterback contract. This is the first

Starting point is 00:14:34 time that Chris Ballard has not been paying a massive quarterback contract in his entire time with the Colts. I mean, even this past season, they were paying dead cap and a ton of extra money to Matt Ryan to get him released or whatever was going on. I know he was like semi-retired. So technically they couldn't get back any of that money because he wasn't officially retired. But it's the first time that Chris Ballard's not paying a ton of money to a quarterback. And that does open up some flexibility. They also got off the Shaquille Leonard contract, which gave them some extra money as well. So, you know, the stars could be aligning for the Colts to make another DeForest Buckner type move. It doesn't need to be, you know, going out and signing the biggest

Starting point is 00:15:13 free agent available, but maybe it's something where they look around the league and they say, hey, this receiver could fit what we need. Let's make a trade for this receiver or this cornerback. I mean, gosh, we know they need another cornerback on this team. Maybe they can make a trade for that corner. Maybe pick 15 can be involved in a trade for one of these things, like we saw with the Buckner trade. I think it's a really interesting offseason from that perspective where they have some cap flexibility,

Starting point is 00:15:37 especially if they rework Quentin Nelson to Forrest Buckner deals as well. They could further gain more cap flexibility. So I really think they have an opportunity where if they want to make a big move, they could make one this off season. Yeah, I totally agree. I don't, they're never going to be that team that does the shopping spree and free agency. Chris Ballard tells us every single year, they're not going to do that, but that doesn't mean that they won't make one huge splash like the Buckner trade, like you mentioned, or like a handful of Samson Ebucon level deals. Like, right. That seems more realistic to me.

Starting point is 00:16:14 Like you mentioned, about 65 million in space, fifth most in the league. Not having that huge bloated quarterback contracts, huge Leonard, like you you mentioned that's about 20 million um ballard himself even said um it opens up the world a little bit more financially which is a good thing here going forward uh and then specifically when asked about like the colts finding more explosive players to surround anthony richardson with uh he said we do think there's going to be some opportunities to add some players to make us more explosive. That does include the draft. But, you know, the first thing that's coming up is free agency is the trade market. Some of those things could be really interesting.

Starting point is 00:16:55 I think there's some dominoes that have to fall first. Part of that could be restructures, moving money around, creating bonuses, guaranteed money right now, or at some point to take that off the books for the salary cap. But I think Michael Pittman and whatever happens with him is a huge one. Because if they were going to trade for a certain position, I think receiver makes a lot of sense. But if they re-sign Pittman, that's going to be $25 million. And that right away is going to make a big move a lot less realistic, I think. But, you know, there's some big things they have to do. Quarterback's not the only thing they're not worrying about either. Their left tackle's on

Starting point is 00:17:36 a rookie deal. Quidipe, their top edge rusher, you know, top defensive end is on a rookie deal. They do have to, not only with Pittman, you know, that top receiver is on a rookie deal. They do have to not, not only with Pittman, you know, that top receiver, they have to figure out backup quarterback as well. And that price might get a little higher now. If it's, if it's Minshew, it's going to be higher, obviously, because of how much you just played. But, you know, if you want to find the right guy, it just might generally be more expensive and they might be willing to pay a little more because they know that they have just had to have their backup quarterback play for a while. So in general, I do think you need to take advantage of this window you have. I feel like

Starting point is 00:18:18 every team that has a young building block quarterback on that rookie deal is trying the same thing. You have to try and surround them with weapons and create that postseason window to win right now. Not to basically throw a bunch of veterans on it. You still want to build with youth. But if there's a couple pieces you feel like you can spend pretty on, I think you do it. For the Colts specifically, got to get more explosive on offense. And then I think the thing we talked about recently was adding a playmaker on defense, particularly in the secondary, because I don't think they would do it in the middle of the

Starting point is 00:18:56 defense. They're not going to have anyone come in there and replace Zyra Franklin or EJ Speed. I also don't know how much snaps you could allocate on the line already having the starters that you have so i think the most sense would be either a receiver depending what happens with michael pitman jr or in the secondary to find a big time playmaker yeah one thing i'll add real quick before you can kick us to our final segment here is you know when it comes to wide receiver if you want to make a big move for another wide receiver and you, but you don't want to be paying two guys long-term deals at the same time, something you can do is franchise tag Pittman Jr. coming into this next season, go out there and make your trade for that receiver. And then whichever one ends up being the

Starting point is 00:19:38 more productive one is the one you, if you, if you want to move on from one, again, you don't really have to when you have that rookie deal at quarterback and rookie deal at left tackle, but that is one way they could play it as well. And, and one guy I'm kind of circling here is an indie native that, you know, his organization's kind of going through some turmoil. So we'll talk about him coming up here in just a second, as we talk about, you know, will Chris Ballard actually go after that big fish? You know, he has the, he has the time, he has the cap space, he has the ability, he has the picks, but will he make that big fish. You know, he has the, he has the time, he has the cap space, he has the ability, he has the picks, but will he make that big swing? We're going to talk about that here in just a second. All right, everyone. I know we come to sports to escape from some of

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Starting point is 00:21:31 Yeah. I mean, when it comes down to will Chris Ballard do it, I think that's the most interesting conversation with this because personally, I don't ever see him being someone who's going to give out a 15, 16, maybe it was a $20 million per year deal in free agency. But we have seen him be someone in the past that if he recognized an opportunity to add someone through a trade, he will do that. And sometimes he will overpay to do that. I mean, say what you want about the DeForest Buckner trade. It was a great one for Indy, but giving up the 13th overall pick just to pay someone 20 plus million dollars per year. Some people would say that that's a little bit of an overpay.

Starting point is 00:22:08 It ended up working great for Indy, so I'm not going to complain whatsoever about that. The Carson Wentz trade, obviously much a very big overpay. Even at the time we were saying that, but he went out there and got the quarterback that his coach wanted. And same with the Matt Ryan trade. I mean, I wouldn't say that one was an overpay, but again one you're going out and getting that quarterback so he has been known to make these trades he gave up a young corner in Rakia Sin for Yannick Ngakwe a couple years ago as well so he will go out there and make these trades so when I'm looking at what the big move Indy could make is I'm thinking in the trade market and now it doesn't have to be pick 15 involved because the

Starting point is 00:22:44 receiver I'm thinking of is nearly at 30 years old. He's a player who's coming off, I don't want to say like a down year, but a down year by his standards. So it probably wouldn't cost pick number 15 to get him. But Terry McLaurin over there in Washington, I know that when the contract negotiations were stalling between McLaurin and Washington, Indy did call that way. Did call out there and inquire. Obviously, nothing materialized because Washington wasn't interested in trading him at that time.

Starting point is 00:23:13 But with their new GM coming in, with their new coach coming in here, and whatever that's going to be, you never know what's going to happen with that roster. They could be looking to unload any players that are making big money that are nearly 30 years old because they're going to go slow play with this rebuild. And a guy like Terry McLaurin could be available for trade across the league. If that does happen, if he does become available for a trade, Indy is the most logical place. He fits the offense perfectly. He's from this area. He grew up around this area. Indy has been interested in the past. So that's the one I'm really looking at. Like if the Colts are going to make that big splashing move, bring Terry McLaurin home,

Starting point is 00:23:52 man. Again, I'm not, this is not me predicting that it's going to happen, but I do think if there's any move that the Colts are going to make and are going to make for their offense in this off season at all, it would be a trade for someone like a Terry McLaurin. When it comes to other receivers that we could see available, Brandon Ayuk, I don't think he's going to be made available by the 49ers. But that's another one where if the 49ers want to pick 15, I would give it for Ayuk because I think he's that great of a player. And the Colts and 49ers obviously have that good relationship built on in the past with the

Starting point is 00:24:24 Buckner trade. So I'm looking at adding a big time receiver through the trade market and McLaurin or Iyuk would, I think would be huge wins. And I'm not saying that Ballard will do these, but I do think he would inquire and be fairly aggressive in the trade market. Maybe not so much in free agency, but I do think he would be aggressive in the trade market to go get his guy. Yeah, I would, I would be gungho for either of those, especially McLaurin. I just immediately think about asking Chris Ballard about that and like, do you have any

Starting point is 00:24:51 regrets about not taking him back, whatever, was it 2020, 2019? So that would be huge. I think everyone would agree he belongs back here in Indy. But one that's a huge outlier and i'll just mention it because we covered it at horseshoehuddle.com and the only reason we did so were because uh some some odds makers reached out to me with the odds for if aj green is to be let out of his contract with the eagle aj green or aj brown aj brown see you you talked about aj green earlier and it just totally threw me off no but so aj brown over in philly if you were to force his way out the colts are actually

Starting point is 00:25:31 the second most likely they're the second highest odds of being the destination i don't i would not put much into that there's a lot of moving parts that would have to go into that but you know that's a name that we could hear mentioned in just general nfl trade rumors coming up obviously things going not chill there in philly so um i i think i don't again like i mentioned i think it's totally dependent on what happens with pitman if they do resign pitman i could still see other receivers come in. Some that I've got here, and they're not super cheap. They're mid-level guys.

Starting point is 00:26:12 Hollywood Brown from the Cardinals, Darnell Mooney, and Gabriel Davis from the Bills. Just looking at guys that are able to stretch the field and make big plays, because that's the name of the game right now is looking for explosiveness. But that's, that's really not it. You're looking at some other positions as well. We talked about, you know, backup quarterback, Gardner Minshew, obviously the front runner there, you know, Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Tannehill, even you're looking for, it's not, we're talking about backup quarterbacks you're not i know i know the preference probably would be to draft somebody but that's it in the nfl man when you look at a backup quarterback you got to make an ick face because you're kind of you're kind of

Starting point is 00:26:56 looking at guys who just can't cut it as starters anymore right and then defensive backs as well the jarius need with the chiefs uh i'm I'm sure they're very high on him after he helped kind of do some positive things against Tyreek Hill. Chidobi Awuzie from the Bengals and then Kendall Fuller. You know, those are some guys who probably aren't going to be like absolute top dollar players, but could be the kind of Ebucon level signings, maybe a little more expensive that we've become more accustomed to seeing the Colts make. Yeah. I think ultimately when I look at, you know, will Chris Ballard make the big move this off season, it'll either come through a trade or

Starting point is 00:27:36 not at all. I don't see it coming through free agency. I mean, he even said, I believe he's, he's the one who said it in his post- presser that, look, there's a reason these guys are hitting the market. And I'm very much of the same mindset. Like it's one thing when a Samson Ebukom guy hits the market where, okay, the super athletic, still fairly young guy is hitting the market after being a solid role player that just never got a chance to start. That's one thing. But when you are seeing big name guys, you know, when you're seeing, oh my gosh, Chandler Jones and Vaughn Miller are both free agents. Let me go give

Starting point is 00:28:09 them $30 million per year to come rush the passer. And then you're looking at that contract a year or two later and being like, oh my gosh, we are so bad. We're like, what are we going to do with this contract? You know, because typically there's a reason when these guys hit. I'm not saying that every single player who hits free agency is bad, but there's typically a reason when these guys hit. I'm not saying that every single player who hits free agency is bad, but there's typically a reason why these guys are hitting the market and teams are letting them go. So I don't think Chris Ballard is going to make some big-time signing. I think if it does go the free agent route with his moves,

Starting point is 00:28:37 it will be Ebukom and Taniko Autry-level signings overall. But I do think we might – I'm not going to say we will, or even we might, but I think there is a chance that we see a trade this off season for another playmaker on offense, for a tight end, for a wide receiver. I mean, look, I am circling and starring and putting hearts all over Terry McLaurin's name all over these pages this off season. I'm really hoping Washington makes them available. I don't know if they will because look, that's a glue guy for your locker room. It's hard to get rid of that while you're starting to rebuild. But if there's even a semblance, if there's even a semblance of him

Starting point is 00:29:12 being available, then you make that call and you try to get it done here for Indy. But that's all we have for today, guys. Remember before we head out to check out Locked On Sports Today, which is the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube. And if you guys don't already, follow at Locked On Colts, at JakeArthurNFL, and at Zach Hicks to All On X. Also, subscribe to us on YouTube, wherever you list your podcasts. We love your guys' ratings and reviews, and we'll check you guys back here tomorrow.

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Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Should Indianapolis Colts Make Big Move for Marvin Harrison Jr.?

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