Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - State of the Indianapolis Colts with The Athletic's Robert Mays

Episode Date: February 25, 2021

On today's episode, Robert Mays of The Athletic joins Evan to cover the Indianapolis Colts from all angles. First up, of course, the Carson Wentz trade. What does Robert believe will happen with Wentz in Indy reuniting with Frank Reich?Then, we dive into some general Colts questions revolving around GM Chris Ballard and Reich. Where does Robert rank both amongst the league's best? Also, how special can Jonathan Taylor truly become at running back?Closing out the show, Robert and Evan quickly preview the offseason for Indy. What will happen with T.Y. Hilton and Xavier Rhodes? Who could the Colts pursue if Hilton doesn't return? Robert goes over three key areas Indy should address in free agency plus the draft.Don't miss out on Robert's ode to Philip Rivers as well. How was Rivers' 1-year in Indy, plus his entire career? Is Rivers worthy of being a Hall-of-Famer? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello everybody, welcome back to the latest episode of Locked On Colts, part of the Locked on Podcast Network. Today, as always, your host, Evan Sutter, joined by a very, very, very special guest for today's episode. I'm so excited to have him on today. Robert Mays of The Athletic. He runs The Athletic NFL Show. It's a must-listen every single week, whether it be with Nate Tice,

Lindsey Jones, and others. Robert does amazing stuff. I've followed him really since his Grantland days. I think he's one of the best out there as far as NFL coverage goes. It's an honor to have you on today, man. Thank you very much. I really appreciate that. The Grantland mention is always nice. Next week or two weeks from now will be 10 years since I moved to LA to work for Grantland. So it's kind of crazy to think about now. But I always, whenever anybody brings it up, it kind of creates a warm spot in my heart. Hey, yeah, time flies when you're having fun and definitely covering the NFL is a dream. And

let me ask you about this, Robert, just first off. I mean, obviously the biggest news for the Colts in the last couple days, Robert's on today, just talk all Indianapolis Colts with us. I know you and Nate, whenever you guys are on the Monday show, you guys do talk a lot about the Colts from the X and S perspective. They're just one of the funner teams to follow and smarter teams to follow as far as roster building goes. What do you think about rolling the dice on Carson Wentz, Robert? I think it makes sense.

I mean, if there were any team that could fix Carson Wentz, they would be the team I would trust to do it for a variety of reasons. I think that even with the concern at left tackle, they have a very good offensive line. Beyond the relationship that Carson Wentz and Frank Reich have, which is a good one, and I think that Frank Reich's support of Carson Wentz, his belief in Carson Wentz, drove this. I also think that the Colts have done such a good job of communicating and streamlining their offense, understanding what they're trying to accomplish in ways that the Eagles weren't. So they really are in a lot of ways, in my mind, the anti-Eagles when it comes

to how they've set up this offense. And I think that that's one of the reasons you could talk yourself into Carson Wentz turning it around at Indianapolis. What's your thoughts on Carson Wentz, the quarterback, Robert? We've seen in 2017 the extreme high with him, 2020 the extreme low. Where do you personally view Carson Wentz on the NFL quarterback spectrum? I think he can be an above-average quarterback if some of these real serious issues get fixed. He was never the guy he was in 2017. That production was unsustainable in a lot of different ways,

whether it was third or fourth down success. A lot of the things they were doing offensively that have now become kind of commonplace and they were using them to great success early at that point, like RPOs, things of that nature. I just think that he's probably closer to the guy we saw in 2018 and the first part of 2019 than he is to the guy we saw in 2017. Excuse me. No, no worries.

Go ahead. I think that – but if you look at the guy we saw in 2020, there's some real concerning things that have started to creep in. And it's beyond the pass protection in Philadelphia. Obviously, that offensive line was banged up. But this is a guy that just was not seeing the game well, was holding onto the ball way too long. And that is explainable in some ways, right?

Guys weren't getting open. They didn't know what they wanted to be offensively. I've always made the joke, it's like that Parks and Rec episode where they have the Parks and Rec team make a mural and they all try to put it together and mark ends up saying you made a camel like a camel is a horse by committee and that's exactly what the eagles offense looks like it looks like a camel and having something that's a little bit more the vision of it is understandable it's synthesized they can communicate what they're

trying to accomplish all that stuff i think that's going to be one of the key differences here. With Carson Wentz comparing the Colts offense to what we've seen in 2020 with Phillip Rivers, a statuette quarterback and mobile, but who's super cerebral with the line of scrimmage. Compared to Carson Wentz, a lot more mobile and more stronger arm as well. What do you think the difference is going to be for the Colts offense in 2021 with Wentz instead of Rivers on board there? I think you're going to see some more shots down the field possibly. You know, some of the stuff we saw from them with Andrew Luck at quarterback in 2017. 2017 now or 2018? 2018? Yeah, 2018. So if you go back and you look at some of that, I was watching it when I was was i talked to uh fran duffy on his

podcast about the sirianni sirianni's offense and what it had looked like in the past and you look go back you watch that 2018 team and there are a lot more shots down the field i mean they push the ball vertically more than they did with philip rivers and i would expect that to happen again with carson wentz as the quarterback now so the mobility is part of it, but I more think it's what areas of the field are they going to want to attack and how do they tailor the baseline of this offense onto Carson Wentz's particular skill set? And I think that's going to include a little bit more, a few more downfield shots than we saw from him last year. What do you think about the Frank Wright connection, Robert? Of course, he was a part of the scouting process with Wentz in 2016.

He was 100% on board with getting him. He really, from what I've read, really drove that train to get Wentz in Philadelphia. It seems like to me from a confidence standpoint, I know it's a simple thing for quarterbacks, but confidence really does mean a lot for quarterbacks. You saw last year, it seemed like Wentz really lost all of it. Going to Indy with Frank Wright, reuniting as well, Press Taylor, who's a senior offensive analyst there now, two of his closest connections he's made in the NFL. How big of a difference is that going to make for him personally? Going to Indy with Frank Reich, reuniting as well, Press Taylor, who's a senior offensive analyst there now,

two of his closest connections he's made in the NFL. How big of a difference is that going to make for him personally? I think it's going to make a big difference. And I think, again, it's what is the message that you're sending on a week-to-week basis? And is that message, even if it's full of disparate voices, are those voices all moving in the same direction? That's going to be the biggest question is frank reich press taylor marcus brady are all of those guys on the same page and what they're communicating to their quarterback and if they can do that and if they can sit down with him friday saturday and be like all right here's the game plan here's what

we're trying to accomplish here's what we need from you here's how we need you to see the game all of that stuff that's going to go a long way for me in fixing him because the physical stuff is still there he's still a physically talented guy that didn't go away I just think that there were so many roadblocks with how he was seeing things unfold in Philadelphia and I think that Frank Reich being kind of the czar of the football aspect of the Colts organization and him being able to oversee everything and being someone who can communicate that vision, I think is going to be really important. Do you think this was a win-win trade for both sides, Robert? Of course, you have to see what happens in the football field before we really make a

clear judgment on that. But the Colts trade away that number 84 overall picked our third round pick this year, and plus a conditional 20-22 second. More likely than not, it's going to be a first round pick if Wentz doesn't bomb an Indy in year one it seemed like just a clean break from both Wentz and the Eagles need to happen but also if Wentz can thrive in Indy it can be maybe something a lot of Eagles fans look back on and say why do we do this in five to six years but what do you think about the overall compensation price for both sides I think the Eagles have to be happy about it I mean the Eagles have to be thrilled because this is a contract that they would have done

anything to get out from under. And it's possible, and to my opinion, even likely that they eventually get a first round pick out of it. I don't know that it's a win for the Colts quite yet. I mean, beyond the Carson Wentz aspect of this, I think the other side that you have to think about is the opportunity cost. Getting Carson Wentz means you're not I think the other side that you have to think about is the opportunity cost. Getting Carson Wentz means you're not getting another quarterback. It means that's the answer at that position with a core that we think is pretty ready to win right now, correct? So this is the guy that you have chosen to be the quarterback and the overseer of this very promising era of Indianapolis Colts football. And if that goes wrong, it's not as simple as we lost a couple draft picks for trading for Carson

Wentz. It's we lost this very important window when we had a chance to win. And I think that's a consideration that you really have to take into account when you're thinking about all aspects of Colts fans rock. Otto's the place to go. if you want to save money on your next car purchase. Whether it be saving $150 on fuel pump assembly, tail lamps, motor oils, new carpet, anything you can imagine, rockauto.com has you covered. The catalog is so unique, and it's so easy to navigate as well. You can quickly sell the parts available for your vehicle and choose the brand, specification, and price you prefer.

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What's been achieved and the important work left to be done, all in discussion on the Locked On Presents Podcast feed. Subscribe on the Radio.com app or wherever you get your podcasts. Yeah, it really is just kind of going all in right now at their core and really placing that bet on Carson Wentz and Frank Rick the Vixen because like you just mentioned, Quentin Nelson is due for a mega deal in about a year or so. Darius Leonard is up for a mega deal this offseason.

Braden Smith is probably one of the highest paid right tackles in the NFL this offseason as well with an extension due for him. This is really their young core, and you're tying it in with Carson Wentz and that gamble role. This was really the Colts' last chance to make it right, so to say, unless they went up and made a huge trade for a rookie in the top five, six of this year's draft. Rolling the dice on Carson Wentz, you really are betting on him being the

leader of this young core because, like you just mentioned, and we just went over there, Robert, the way the Colts have drafted since 2018, they have a lot of guys going to be making a lot of money here soon. Yeah, and I also think that it's not even just the financial part of this because they're set up well.

Chris Ballard is, even the Carson Wentz deal, he had an offer that he gave, he had a line he wouldn't cross, and he didn't cross it. And that's exactly how he operates. And I think that you'll continue to see that. You know, you look at their cap situation, it's still incredibly healthy, even with the Wentz deal. Even if they have some space now, I don't expect them to go crazy in

free agency and put themselves in a bad spot for two years down the road. If Wentz is just bad this year, if he's just objectively bad this season, they can move on from him. They can move on from him for nothing and kind of restart this clock again with a bunch of cap space and a bunch of resources, aside from the ones that they lost with Carson Wentz. If they can cut bait after a year, I think they're still going to be in a decent spot. So I just think it's a matter of the time

more than it's a matter of the finances at this point. You're losing at least one year if he doesn't work out with this core that you think is ready to win. And I think that's just the consideration that I want to keep in mind with all this. A couple of general points here, Robert, before we dive into looking into the Colts offseason. What's your thoughts on Chris Bauer, the GM, how he's built this team since 2017? Ryan Brixen really left it in disarray, complete disarray when he left in 2016. Bauer, the buildbacker from the studs, had a really awful defense, a lack of young talent, and

it's really the opposite since then. I know the win-loss record won't show, but we've seen Andrew Luckness two years out of that, three years out of that now, with the shoulder injury and then the retirement. Four quarterbacks in the last four years. It just seems like the way Bauer's handled this, it's really the best he could have done so far, because he expected Andrew Luck to be a quarterback for the next last four years. It just seems like the way Bauer's handled this, it's really the best he could have done so far because he expected Andrew Luck to be required for the next 10 plus

years. What's your thoughts on the way that Bauer has built this team and really kept the salary cap as well very flexible? I remember Chris and I had a conversation the summer after he took the job and we were sitting on like a golf cart in the indoor facility after a training camp practice and I was asking him about a different story I was working on but we just got into some of the roster considerations and it was a long time ago now and I assumed he'd be okay with me saying this and I was asking him about the offensive line I was like well you know you didn't really make any plays for a free agent you know right tackle or whoever it would have been at that point I was like it seems like a need and he, you know what? I just, the price wasn't there. And I just, I look back at that conversation now and learning more

and more about how Chris Bauer has approached this. And he's just not a guy who's going to be pushed off his timeline or his price when it comes to guys. And I really respect that. And beyond the principles that he's shown in building this team, I also think that if you look at the way the team is built, the spine on offense and defense is such a strength and he's committed so many resources and so much effort into those spots. Think about the ways that Ryan Grigson tried to put this team together. It was a Philip Dorsett here. It was a shiny piece there. The spine of the Colts offense and defense with Quentin Nelson, Ryan Kelly, who I know wasn't a valid draft pick, but still, and on defense Buckner, Leonard Blackman, and he drafted hooker. It was supposed to be black

before he was the spines of this team are so good. And now it's just about figuring out the other pieces outside of that. And I just think it's such a testament to the way he's thought about how to build this roster. I mean, he, in my opinion, is one of the best GMs in the league. When you think about the approach, the principles, the values, how he's very humble when it comes to this stuff, but he's also very realistic. He could be the GM of my team any single day. Frank Reich, the head coach, Robert, very creative play caller. He came on in 2018 after the whole Josh McDaniels fiasco in India where Chris Bout said that famously the rivalry is back on

after McDaniels backed out at the last minute. What's been your opinion of Frank Reich over his first three years in Indianapolis where now he's going to have his fourth straight different starting quarterback with Luck, Bursette, Rivers, and now his guy Carson Wentz. I think he's a top shelf NFL head coach. He is in a very select group of guys to me. If you were doing a draft of the coaches in the league, I don't think if I were doing the drafting, he wouldn't last past like seven or eight. Because this model of play calling offensive head coach that again is kind of the figurehead of the organization in this way, where everything flows through him, that is the model I trust the most. And I don't know how many other guys in the league are doing it better than he is right now. Sean Payton and Andy Reid are at the top of that list, obviously.

I think that Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan have done an excellent job. Matt LaFleur has been really good. But I think that Frank Reich is right there, right in that group, below the Sean Payton, Andy Reid sort of guys when it comes to that play calling offensive head coach model. Jonathan Taylor really came on in the last eight weeks of the season. Robert Rednick, he was PFF's number two, number three way running back behind Derrick Henry over that stretch, and he had 1,100 yards for the whole season, 11 rushing touchdowns as well. What's your opinion of Jonathan Taylor? I know nowadays in the modern NFL, running backs aren't as important, but you see a player like Jonathan Taylor, who had his struggles early on,

really exploded in the last couple months of the season. Do you feel like the Colts now have a foundational piece of running back? I know it's rare to have that where you could have a bell cow, so to say, for three or four years, but I think the Colts truly have that in Jonathan Taylor. What's your thoughts on him? Oh, I think he's going to be great. I mean, I think that he got so comfortable within that offense last year. It didn't seem like he was really seeing the game very well early in the

season. You think about how many shotgun runs they had with Rivers and some of the things that they tried to do. I mean, it really did look like they were trying to play with his timing last year, where he was taking some counter steps and things like that just to have the timing of play sync up and the way he saw blocks unfold sync up in a way he wasn't early in the year. And I think that they really found something. He was always going to be an explosive player. Chris Ballard loves his traits at every position. He's a guy that I think if Nick Chubb had been there in that draft when they picked Braden Smith, would he have been a guy that they had chased? And I think that Jonathan Taylor is the same sort of talent. So I'm excited to see what they can do.

I think that where they picked him is about as high as I'd pick a running back. It's bumping up right against kind of my own personal understanding of positional value. But I think that that fourth year, not spending a first-round pick on a guy, if you look at the cap numbers, everything else, I think it's totally reasonable. And I think he has a chance to be a really special player. BetOnline is the fastest and easiest way to bet on all your sports action. Football might be over, but NBA, college basketball, and the NHL are in full swing. BetOnline even covers awards, TV shows, and reality TV.

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Thursdays on LockedOn NFL are a must-listen as Ryan Tracy and Jake Lisco break down teams across the NFL from an analytics and team-building perspective. Get the expert analysis on your favorite teams from Ryan and Jake every Thursday. Subscribe to the Lockdown NFL wherever you hear podcasts. Let's put this in off-season talk now, Robert, to close out today's show. Really appreciate the time. Looking at this off-season for the Colts, you've pushed the chips in on Carson Wentz, so to say, to elevate this young core.

If it works out, it's a huge, huge win. But if it doesn't, like you mentioned, there's an out after a year or two. With Wentz as their quarterback now, do you expect Chris Bauer to be a little bit more aggressive in a year where a lot of teams are financially cap strained, the Colts still aren't even after absorbing that Wentz contract. I think it's around $50 million in cap space still, the fourth most in the NFL. What's your opinion of how the Colts are going to handle this offseason and free agency in the draft now that they have Wentz on board? I don't know if they'll be overly aggressive because again, I think that Chris Ballard is not going to sacrifice his future for his present, even though Carson Wentz is in the building. So they have money and they have

needs and I expect them to kick the tires on guys. Let's say the Bears don't franchise Alan Robinson. I assume that Chris Ballard would be on the phone with Allen Robinson's agent and say, what would it take? And his agent's going to say something. And if that price does not align with what Chris Ballard thinks Allen Robinson is worth, they'll move on. So they have the money to be in the market for some of these guys. But I don't think that they're going to go wild in spending for any of them.

So that's where I would assume they would be anytime they have cap space. And there have been some cash spending considerations with this team, even a couple years ago when they had a bunch of money to spend in terms of the cap. I don't think that Jim Irsay was necessarily ready for them to throw a bunch of that around. It does feel like that has changed a little bit when you consider some of the money they spent last offseason on Buckner, everything else.

So if that is still the case, if that's the kind of set of circumstances they're working with where they're able to spend, I assume they'll do a decent amount of it. But I don't think it's going to be some crazy free agency period where we're sitting there being like, oh man, the Colts are the offseason winners this year.

Like they're the team that spent the most money. That would surprise me. Yeah, very valid point there. And a controversial topic I think right now amongst Colts fans and Colts writers themselves is what the Colts are going to do with T.Y. Hilton, who hasn't been the elite guy since Andrew Luck left, but he's still, I'd say, above average to an average wide receiver one or maybe a high end WR2 in this league. He's age 32.

There's younger options out there in free and so they can mention Alan Robinson if they want to go out and pursue him or maybe they can go after a speeder you got like Will Fuller or something like along those lines Robert what's your opinion of T.Y. Hilton in today's NFL in 2021 and do you feel like the Colts would be wise to move on from at this point or I know many Colts have sentimental value with T.Y. is the fan favorite but do you think it'd be a smart investment to go younger at that position to help out guys like Michael Kim and Jr., Paris Campbell, Zach Paschal? What's your opinion on how T.Y.'s free agency is going to go? I think that moving on from him is a perfectly acceptable thing to do.

You know, it's obviously the connection to the franchise is a little bit different, but I think that Justin Houston is the same sort of consideration guys who are still useful players, but at this stage in their careers, is it worth holding onto them or trying to inject a little bit of youth, a little bit of explosiveness into two positions where the Colts kind of desperately need that. So, I mean, this is a business. T.Y. Hilton has had a really good, almost decade long run with the Colts.

I'm sure that his time there will be remembered fondly, but every so often, it's in the best interest of both parties to move on and start over, and I think that that might be the place the Colts have arrived with T.Y. Hilton. If the market doesn't unfold for him in the way that he wants, if the Colts aren't willing to pay up for some of those other receivers, maybe he's back, but I think it's totally acceptable for this to be the time when T.Y. Hilton moves on and the Colts move on in a different direction. Another surprise free agent I would say that did really well for the Colts when he was signed last year on a one-year proven deal very small contract around three million dollars Xavier Rhodes Robert do you feel like amongst the Colts free agents upcoming he's the one that you

circle and say this is probably the guy we bring back or what's your thoughts on Rhodes again I think it's all about price you know this is there's a reason that they were able to get a guy like Xavier Rhodes and plug him in and have him be successful from the start you know the way that they play defense in Indianapolis the heavy amount of zone that they play I think that they can get away with guys who may be at this stage of their careers or even before their career started they're young players without a lot of physical traits explosively that you'd want at that position the Colts can live with that so I think that allows them to shop in the bargain bin when it comes to corners in a way a team like Miami that plays a ton of

heavy man coverage isn't able to so I think that's an interesting consideration where that plays a ton of heavy man coverage isn't able to. So I think that's an interesting consideration where that's a premium position with the way that most teams see it. It's a premium position for the Colts as well, but maybe not to the same extent. So are you willing to spend a little bit less money at those spots because you're not asking those guys to play man coverage against Devante Adams in the same way some of these other teams are? That's a very true point.

The heavy zone scheme really has its benefits to some guys. Xavier Rhodes we saw this year in 2020 had a really resurging year after some down years in Minnesota. But one last thing on the offseason here, Rob, before we dive into really quickly Phillip Rivers at the end of today's show, what do you feel like are the biggest needs for the Colts this offseason? Like you mentioned, maybe inject some speed and youth at wide receiver. I have to imagine pass rushes up there as well. I think that's the missing ingredient to have an

elite edge rusher next to the forest buck around the defensive line. Where would you target if you're into this offseason? Left tackle, wide receiver, edge rusher. I think those are the three spots I would start with because you want to keep that offensive line of strength. If you don't have a left tackle, even we saw last year, when Costanzo was hurt or out, you could sense the impact it had on the offense. I mean, think back to that Cleveland game and just how uncomfortable Phillip Rivers looked over the course of that game because Costanzo wasn't playing. I think that having a reliable piece at that spot is really important, even if the rest of your offensive line is very good.

And then outside of that, you want one more threat on the outside to go along with Pittman, Campbell, Doyle, and I definitely think they need one more edge rusher because even on the interior of the offensive line, I believe Danico Autry is a free agent, so he's somebody that gave you some juice as an interior pass rusher last year. So how do you make sure that group doesn't take a step back because you're a team that doesn't blitz a lot etc so i think those three spots edge left tackle and wide receiver are the three areas where they're really going to need some help

robert you've been maybe the biggest fan and i felt me to have philip rivers over the years and i agree with you on the sentiment he's a future hall of famer first off what was your assessment of rivers in 2020 and with rivers retiring after his year in India, your overall thoughts on Phillip Rivers' career? Because I know he has a soft spot for you. I thought he played great last year. I mean, it's not as if the Colts were chock full of weapons last season. T.Y. Hilton struggled.

Paris Campbell didn't play at all. I mean, Phillip Rivers' number one target for chunks of last year was a rookie wide receiver who was drafted in the second round, who has a very specific skill set, but is by no means a star. And they were an above average passing offense for the entire season. Phillip Rivers at almost age 40 was good enough to turn this into a top 12 offense and take the Colts to the playoffs and almost win a playoff game. I think it is such a reminder of what kind of player he is and had been for almost his entire career. What he could do between the ears rivals the stuff that Peyton Manning,

Drew Brees, and Tom Brady can do, but we just don't think about Phillip Rivers in that way because he's just this memeable guy who has a bunch of kids. He absolutely is in that tier of players when it comes to the mental side of the game. And you just saw that. He can win with his brain in a way I've always loved. And I just think that overall his career,

he's a perpetually underappreciated guy. I mean, if you go back and you look at it, I want to say in his 14 years as a starter with the Chargers, they had a top 10 passing offense by DVOA 10 different times. That's all you want out of a quarterback. All you want out of a quarterback is somebody who's going to be this guy you can rely on to make you a very good to great unit year in and year out. Because if you're a top 10 offense every single year passing the ball, you have a chance to win. And Philip Rivers gave the Chargers that every single season. And it's not as if he was a compiler. You know, that's the thing that I

think is so ridiculous about people talking about Philip Rivers and the way that we discuss him is that I don't think Philip Rivers being fifth in NFL history in passing yards or whatever it is. I think that's right. That to me is not why he's a Hall of Famer. It's that he did that and he has that sort of overall body of work. But if you look at 2008 through 2010, which is a time when I think two, three of the greatest quarterbacks of all time were playing at a high level. Phillip Rivers led the NFL in yards per attempt over those three years. He may have never been the best quarterback in the NFL during his career, but he was just as good as a lot of guys we consider the best of all time,

and he did it over multiple seasons. And I just don't think the people appreciate that enough. Robert, really great stuff today. I really, really appreciate coming on today's podcast of Locked On Colts and I'm always I always listen to you every week on the on the Athletic NFL show I read your work whenever you write on it as well huge fan of your work I know our listeners are really excited to have you on today if you want to go follow Robert on Twitter if you're not already go ahead and do so he's a must follow at Robert Mays and then also you have to imagine Robert it's gonna be a very busy off season for you upcoming on the athletics so thank you again so much for the time today

yeah absolutely I'm looking forward to it busy is not a bad thing it's gonna be a no shortage of things to talk about