Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - The Athletic's Zak Keefer on Carson Wentz and an important Colts offseason

Episode Date: February 25, 2021

On today's episode, Zak Keefer of The Athletic joins for an interesting episode on the Indianapolis Colts' latest moves. From the Carson Wentz trade to an offseason filled with many questions, Keefer dishes out some takes on it all.Was Indy in on Wentz immediately? The Frank Reich connection played a big role in it all. Also, how will Wentz fare in Indy?Closing out the show, Zak and Evan go over Indy's offseason plans. Who will be coming back? Is T.Y. Hilton a lock re-sign candidate?All of this, plus so much more, in a jam-packed podcast going over the latest Colts news! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello everybody, welcome back to another episode of Locked On Colts, part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Today's audience is your host, Evan Sattery, joined by Zach Kiefer of The Athletic, The Colts beat writer over at The Athletic. Does great work over there. Also hosts the 1% Better Podcast with fellow Colts beat writer over at The Athletic, Stephen Holder. Zach, how are you doing today? The Colts finally do have a franchise quarterback. I'm good, I'm good. It's been busy. It's going to continue to be busy, but it is nice to kind of have that settled. And now I guess the job is to figure out how they're going to help

Carson Wentz because they got some work to do in that regard. Yeah, very big question. You put it on The Athletic this morning. The Colts do have around $46 million in cap space, the fourth most in the NFL. Let's go to the Wentz trade overall, Zach. I mean, Phillip Rose retires a week after the season ends. Did that throw you off at all? Because from all indications we heard throughout the year from both sides that this is a two-year marriage and everything was probably going that way with the way Rivers played in 2020, didn't that catch you off guard a little bit when you woke up to that? Yeah, I'll be honest. It did. It really did. And there were some teammates of Phillip Rivers that were really surprised because it very much seemed like he was going to come back.

You know, Frank Reich had made it very clear that the door was open Chris Ballard did the same thing and I had a long chat with Philip towards the end of the season and I remember him telling me and I get he was very much in the mode of the season he was leaving a long day at the facility getting ready for that week 17 game he wasn't thinking ahead too far but he was also very much like I'm going to come back. I'm going to want to come back. I love it here. And, yeah, it surprised me. But I think, you know, looking back, the Colts were very lucky to have that guy.

I think the teammates will take the lessons they learned from him down the line as they move on in their careers. But it left a huge hole to fill, and Carson Wentz is going to have to try and do that. But he's not the same quarterback as Phillip Rivers, and that's going to be a challenge. So it's going to be very, very fascinating to see what Frank Wright can do with Phillip Rivers' replacement

and Carson Wentz moving forward. Let's hit on the Carson Wentz trade now, Zach. Once Rivers retired, did you kind of circle Carson Wentz the most realistic option, or was really any option open to you? It's one of the calls whence the most realistic option, or was really any option open to you? It's something that Colts were really from all angles, door one, door two, door three, like anything was open to them.

Yeah, that's how they approached it. They really did take a long look at the entire list of players that were both available, and as it turns out, not available, because they didn't want to put all their bags in one basket. That's how it was with Stafford. Two first-round picks, they were never going to get that high. They liked Matthew Stafford,

but I wouldn't say they loved Matthew Stafford from the people that I've talked to. Didn't get him. Wentz was always a possibility. You have to go into this knowing that Jim Irsay and Chris Bowers, the chief decision-makers on this front, very, very, very much trust

Franklin. They really do believe that he can get the best out of any quarterback that signs with this team this will be four and four years how you draw it up but um what he did with rivers last year is is very important here because remember the questions about rivers he was he was bad in moments in 2019 he just wasn't good he threw 20 interceptions he forced a lot of balls it wasn in 2019. He just wasn't good. He threw 20 interceptions. He forced a lot of balls. It wasn't his best season. There wasn't a huge market for Phillip Rivers, if you remember. There was with the Colts because of Frank Reich and Jason Michael and Nick Sirianni. And that was really that simple. So what he did with Phillip Rivers

this year, remember, he's 38 years old. I don't care what anybody says. He lost a little bit of that arm strength. Great accuracy, great dilemma scrimmage, great cerebral quarterback, but he couldn't move at all. And that limits you a lot in today's NFL with all the ways different quarterbacks can attack you. So, you know, the toe injury didn't help either. So what Reich was able to do with Rivers this year, you take 28 year old carson wentz coming off the worst season of his career all the physical tools still there um they believe in their head coach that's not always been the case around here but they believe in their head coach and this is a bet and this is what i wrote the minute it happened i believe it this is a bet on frank rank as much as much as it is on carson wins yeah we saw a. I think you actually reposted this, I believe,

from Bo Wolfe, The Athletic, in your story that mentioned that Frank Reich was really 100% in on Carson Wentz, even dating back to the pre-draft process in 2016 on the Eagles coaching staff. From that relationship, that conviction Frank Reich has shown in Carson Wentz from day one, even now, what does that give a confidence boost to Carson Wentz to maybe get that mental strain off of him?

Because he's now coming to the situation where he truly has the guy, What does that give a confidence boost to Carson Wentz to maybe get that mental strain off of him? Because he's now coming to the situation where he truly has the guy, the number one guy who's believed in since they won it before even entering the NFL. Yeah, interesting quote I found from Frank back in the Eagles draft process. I think it was Doug Peterson who said this. He said, look, we were all 99% in on Carson. Great pro day. They really believed in him. Frank was a hundred percent. And that's a telling quote from an organization that mortgaged five draft picks and two starters

to move up to draft a kid out of North Dakota state, right? That tells you something. And Frank will tell you this. If Frank loves the guy, he loves the guy. He thinks he can fix anybody. And maybe that's a fault, but to this point, his record speaks for itself. You could argue that he's had Andrew Luck play at the best level of his career. You know, he worked with Peyton, but Peyton was very, very good in that 9-10 season. He's had Phillip Rivers very close to the best he's ever played. I would argue he's had Duke Hoby Brissett play the best he's ever played in his first six or seven games in 19.

And I don't need to tell you about what he did with Foles and Wentz in the 17th season. So that's his track record, and it's really hard to argue with it. And look, Frank drove to strength. He absolutely was the Wentz guy in the Colts' building. This wouldn't have happened if Frank didn't want this guy. And the word I got from a Colts offensive source after the move happened, tells the story, it was three fire emojis. They are fired up to get this kid.

Remember, this is the second overall pick just five years ago. And unlike a lot of the other quarterbacks that were on the market, I didn't love the market this year. Stafford, possibly Darnold, Fitzpatrick, Cam. How many guys have played at an MVP level? Cam Newton, there's no way you can argue he's even close to that right now. And Wentz, and I realize Wentz isn't either at that level. There's a lot of football left in Carson Wentz,

and this goes back to Frank Reich, believing in Frank Reich. And that's the move. And Chris Ballard, for the second year in a row, went out and got the quarterback his coach wanted. Yeah, a huge move to put your chips into the table, so to say, for Carson Wentz, like you mentioned. Number two, taking the 2016 draft. From what you knew throughout the trade negotiation process, Zach,

were the Colts in it from day one? It seemed like from here, from the outside looking in, it really was the Colts from day one, and everyone else was just kind of floating on the outside of that. Yeah, there were other teams in it, though, for sure. Don't believe everything you've heard. Believe me, there were other teams in it. And the Colts pretty much laid out what they were going to do,

what they were willing to do. And this is what they do with just about any player. Now, Chris Ballard understands that it's a quarterback and there's going to be a different situation. And, you know, you can't just really pay market value because the market is so driven up. But listen, they told Howie Roseman, like, look, here's what we see. Here's what we're willing to do. And here's our timetable. And Roseman wanted a lot more. And I think he was a little angry at first because he wasn't

going to get those first round picks that he really, really wanted. But then I checked again about a week later. It was all quiet for a while, right? What's going on? Why hasn't this gotten done? And the word I got was the Colts offer hadn't changed significantly. Now, I believe it changed a little bit, but it hadn't changed significantly.

They basically drew a line in the sand and said, we're not going to go further. And this has happened several times in the past with free agents where the Colts were not willing to meet a certain number and they miss on that free agent. They're just not going to go beyond where they want to go. They're not going to go where they're comfortable. And it costs them sometimes. But here it really made the Eagles realize, well, this is our only real suitor at the end of the day.

And this is our best suitor. And they couldn't really send Carson to a place he didn't want to go. It just it just wasn't going to work. They had to find a home for him. And now if you're the Eagles, you got to wonder if this works in Indy, how's that going to look for the next three or four or five years? We traded away a second overall pick, a former leading MVP candidate to reunite him with the coach he wanted to play for and really assist him that Carson Wentz couldn't ask for anything better in terms of the situation he's walking into in Indianapolis. BetOnline is the fastest and easiest way to bet on all your sports action. Football might be over, but NBA, college basketball, and the NHL are in full swing.

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Today on the Locked On Today podcast, Tiger Woods is hospitalized after a car crash early Tuesday morning. Host Peter Pekowski gives you the latest details. Get more of the sports news you need in less time with the Locked On Today podcast. Subscribe to Locked On Today wherever you get your podcasts. Yeah, a great situation for not only the coaching staff, but all the connections

for Carson Wentz, but Wentz himself. This could be a really big bounce back for Wentz and his career at the Colts. Zach, what's your overall personal thoughts on the compensation the Colts gave up? Number 84 overall in this year's draft, their third-round pick, a 2022 conditional second-round pick that more than likely not, if all goes well,

turns out first-round pick next year. If it does work out and Wentz is their guy for the next, let's say, six, seven, eight years, that's a price you pay 10 out of 10 times, right? Oh, yeah. Six or seven years, absolutely. Now, I don't know if it lasts that long. We'll see.

But the key here is they didn't give up their first or second post year. That was important to them. They've got work to do, and they know that. And I think they go left tackle in the draft. That's just a gut feeling. I'm not breaking any news there because I think everyone's on the same page. But it was important for the Colts to not mortgage those first two picks this year. They like those first two picks.

There's a lot of value in this draft from a tackle standpoint. And I think that's the route they go. I don't think they go free agency for a tackle, at least for a long-term solution. I think they really want to draft and develop someone, keep him on that rookie deal because they got guys to pay on the offensive line, right? Braden Smith and Quentin Nelson is going to get a ransom.

So that's, that's really important to them. They didn't want to get any further than that third-round pick this year. And I think if you're going to get a starting quarterback for, let's say he plays the duration of his contract, four years, you're going to have to give him a first-round pick. They're fine with that. They didn't have any problem giving up a first-rounder for the Forest Bucks last year, and we saw how that turned out.

Yeah, it's going to be so interesting what happens with the Wentz era in Indianapolis, Zach. Last thing here on Wentz before we dive into some offseason talk to close out today's show, what's your overall opinion of this deal as far as what you've seen on tape with Carson Wentz? Of course, mechanical issues, the talent's still there, but maybe mentally he's a little bit broken. From that perspective and also the roster around Carson Wentz,

you have the offensive line now. He got sacked 50 times in 12 games. You have his first 1,000-yard rusher in his career, Jonathan Taylor. You have some young playmakers as well. What did you see on tape with Carson Wentz, and what's your overall thoughts on the situation he's walking into and into? Yeah, I'm glad you asked this because I see a lot of talent, like a lot. And that even includes 2020.

Like I watched the tape tape and i saw the snaps where he held the ball too long and i saw the forced throws and i saw the sacks and i saw the bad there's a lot of it you can't objectively look at this and not realize that but this dude can play he can play it's in there and sometimes a great scheme and a great coach and great weapons around them can pull that out of a guy. I had a really interesting conversation with Jordan Palmer the other day. And Jordan Palmer is probably most widely known as Carson Palmer's younger brother. He was a backup.

Never made it in the league. Never threw a touchdown. But the bottom line is now he coaches really, really talented guys. Mahomes, Watson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lashley. Gets them ready for the draft. So he knows the position well. And I texted him and he reached out and said, I want Carson to hear this.

He can be fixed. This is going to work if he believes. And for him, it all came down to confidence. He didn't have a confidence in his system, in his coach, his teammates, and in himself a lot last year. That's what the tape told me. And that's everything for a quarterback because you're essentially, you're carrying the offense. They're all going to look to you.

And whether that's a mental weakness of Carson Wentz, I can't speak to that. I wasn't in Philly. But we've all read about the fact that he wasn't thrilled they drafted Jalen Hurts in the second round. The fact that Doug Peterson's offense got really stale and he didn't agree with a lot of the calls. The fact that he couldn't go anywhere without getting sacked two or three seconds into the snap. So that weighs on you, and some guys can overcome that, and some guys can't.

But I think a huge part of this, and you see this, players excel when the coaches make them believe they're going to succeed. I mean, at the core of it, that's what great coaching is, right? You put your players in a position to succeed. And that's all Frank's done since he's gotten to Indianapolis in a lot of different ways. I mean, we're starting quarterbacks in four years. That's like something the Browns would go through in the 2000s, not the Colts.

But here we are. And this is really important here because Frank's really good at scheming ways up to get his players going. This is a little thing, but it stood out to me. In 18, he had a bunch of receivers dealing with drops. And so when Ebron would drop a football, he would call a play the next play and go right back to him so he could get a catch and he could move on. So I just kind of filed that away in my head. And then when Jacoby took over in 19, they had two weeks to get the playbook ready for him. It was built for Andrew Luck. 70% of the playbook was built for Andrew Luck. Jacoby couldn't do

those things. So they had to change a lot of that. And they really shifted the offensive scheme around to suit Jacoby. And they started five and two, not because of Jacoby, although he was playing very well. But they really were able to take advantage of what he did well, and they were to sort of hide what he didn't do well. I just see that happening with Wentz and Indy. They have a lot of time. Remember, it's just February.

They have a lot of time to build this new offense around this quarterback. And I see a lot of RPO stuff. Wentz can move in a way that Luck could, that Brissette can't, and that obviously Rivers couldn't. I see some downfield shots. Wentz has a huge arm. Whether they bring T.Y. back or not remains to be seen.

But I see a lot of late 2018 Colts offense where they have a great run game. They take some shots, and they make life pretty easy on the quarterback, relatively speaking, because they have a great line, and because that's how Frank draws it up. And that infuses confidence in the quarterback. Zach, what comes next now for them? You mentioned maybe left tackle they addressed earlier on the draft as a gut feeling for you, but with around $50 million in cap space to spend

and a year in the pandemic where the cap space is a little bit shortened compared to what we've seen in years past, a slight dip. I think it's around $180 million, $185 million for the upcoming year. Do you feel like the Colts may make a run here with Carson Wentz to try to splurge a little bit? I know it's not Chris Bauer's DNA, so to say, but you kind of push your chips in on Carson Wentz for your quarterback. You have to have a really solid offense around him as far as playmakers go.

Do you think we see maybe a more aggressive tune from Ballard? I know he made that big trip at Buckner last year, but do you think we maybe see it on the signing route this time around? I don't think they're going to change. You know, Chris hopped on. I actually teach a sports training class at IU, and he hopped on a couple hours after the Wentz train was official, or after it leaked out on Thursday. Obviously, he couldn't speak about it, but he just got out of a draft meeting.

I really don't think they're going to change their DNA this offseason. I do think they make two notable signings. I don't know who. I have a feeling it's a tight end. Maybe a receiver, but I just think tight end. I feel like Frank's going to push for a dynamic, athletic tight end. He wants that in his offense. You know, maybe Zach Ertz is a possibility if he breaks ties with Philadelphia.

He's not a free agent, but I could see him becoming available via trade if he's released. I just feel like that was missing the last two years. And you saw what Eric Ebron did in 2018. You know, that was a dynamic piece to the offense that helped the run game, it helped luck, it helped with TY and the receivers. They haven't had that. And they don't have that right now

with Moelle Cox and Jack Doyle. For all their strength, they need that sort of receiver hybrid. And then Trey Burton wasn't quite that last year. So that's just me speaking on gut feeling. It's very obvious on the other side of the ball. You've got to decide on Xavier Rhodes. He's going to want more money, a lot more money than he got last year.

You need pass rush. And don't discount. It's not just Justin Houston that's available as a free agent. It's not just Danico Autry, who did a lot of stuff that a lot of people overlooked. It's Muhammad as well. I mean, those are three key pieces to your defensive line. A really good defensive line last year that will not nearly be as good if you don't have those guys back. So I don't think all three of them come back. But on defense, I don't expect Anthony Walker to come back, but that's not a huge loss compared with Rhodes, your top corner on the

outside. And then those three guys in the defensive line, you need pass rush. So I could see a signing there, and I could see a signing on offense, a wide receiver, a tight end. The Bilt Bar is the best tasting protein bar ever. They have 18 amazing flavors, including nut and non-nut flavors, and they're so tasty. They're covered in 100% chocolate, and they're soft and easy to chew. The Bilt Bar is great for the health conscious guy out there as well.

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T.Y. Hilton, Zach, of course, is a folk here around Indianapolis. Been around since 2012. Big fan favorite. Do you envision a scenario at all where T.Y. is in a different jersey next year in 2021, or do you think when it comes down to it, the dust settles, that the Colts and T.Y. come to an agreement? Yeah, it's about 50-50 in my mind. I do think he's back.

You know, going to my head, I think he's back. Maybe two years, $18 million. Maybe three, $25, $10, $11 guaranteed. I'm not sure how the money will shake out, but that's what's going to decide this. And it's possible he goes elsewhere. It's the nature of this league. And it's just possible. You have to accept the reality of it. Even T.Y. doesn't know right now. But I will say this, this is not just a player for the Colts. I mean, this is a guy that Chris Ballard walked up to in

Buffalo before the playoff game and said, I love you. And T.Y. gave him a hug. And T.Y. is not the most emotional guy, but that tells you something. And the way T.Y.'s image has changed in my mind and in Ballard's mind the last three, four years has been significant. I mean, this is a guy who played through high and low ankle sprain injuries in 18, absolutely carried the team down the stretch. You know, this is a guy that Andrew Luck called his favorite teammate of all time. You don't just say that about a guy who just catches passes. And I've seen it this year. I mean, T.Y. wasn't getting his touches this year. And I go out there on the practice field and watch,

and he's the first guy out there, and he's doing his routes, and he's doing his very, very little minutiae, you know, the little things that make you brave. And then you have that late season start. So T.Y. can still play, still very much valued in this franchise. And as you bring in a new franchise quarterback, you're going to need guys like that. I'll never forget how much of a role Reggie Wayne played for Andy Luck

when he came in, right? All this pressure on the kid. He had to replace Peyton Manning. And in the first day of the locker room, Reggie Wayne's sitting in this big leather chair that he has that no one else has. He says, just throw me the ball. Just throw me the ball, Drew. And really, that's all I did that rookie year, right? And it worked out and they went 11 and five and Reggie Wayne was almost at

an MVP type level midway through that season. So there's some value in having a longtime cult here as the new quarterback arrives. I think that will play into the T.Y. negotiations as well. Xavier Rhodes, a big bounce back here in 2020, a key piece of the Colts' defense last season, Zach. Have you heard anything on the Rhodes front as of yet if the Colts and Rhodes have been talking about a deal? Or just like T.Y., is this going to depend where the market falls? I have, but I don't want to speculate.

I don't want to throw stuff out there that I don't know to be 100% accurate. I think it's going to be tough. You know, Jonathan Gannon is now in Philadelphia running their defense. That's a factor. That was one of the main reasons he came here. But, look, if I'm Rhodes, you know, I want to go to a defense where I'm going to excel, right? That's a huge part of what these guys are looking for.

They're talking to their agents they don't want to just sign for the most money now some of them do but scheme fit is really important if you saw the daris leonard community a couple weeks ago i thought it was pretty telling he said look free agents don't come here if you're not going to play really hard and put the team first and and roach deserves to get paid he played really well last year um but the one thing i keep thinking back to is the Colts have not traditionally spent a lot of money at that position for the outside guys under Chris Ballard. They did give Pierre Desir some money a couple years ago, but they cut him a year in after he didn't play well. They paid Kenny more, but he's a slot corner and Kenny deserved it.

And he's just an exceptional talent. I could see them spending the money that they do at pass rush. I feel like that's the more valuable spot in this scheme than an outside corner spot. But look, if you don't have Rhodes back, who's your starting corner? Because you don't feel great about the other side either. Because like you said, I don't know where he's at entering year three either. Zach, last one I have for you.

We really appreciate the time today to come on our podcast. If you had to predict next year, I guess look at the ceiling of the 2021 Colts, adding in Kirsten Wentz. We're still a ways away from free-hits in the draft, but from the current roster they have on paper, throwing Kirsten Wentz into that mix with Frank Reich on board, what do you think the ceiling could be for this 2021 Colts team? Yeah, it's hard to say before they answer some of those questions, right?

Like who's the left tackle? Who's the left tackle that's going to protect your $100 million quarterback? You know, who's coming back, who's not? But look, the nucleus is there. I'm not totally against what Jim Irsay said, that he believes he has a really strong young nucleus that can contend in the next couple of years. You've got to find the biggest piece.

They believe they have that in Carson West. Maybe it doesn't all click in year one, but maybe year two is better. We'll see. That's usually what happens. Look, the draft is huge for this team because they're not going to go out and spend a bunch of money in free agency, which I think is the right move. It's awesome to see that miss. They've got to pay Darius Leonard. They got to pay Quentin Nelson. They got to pay Braden Smith.

There's a long list of guys that are going to get paid big money very soon. That's where their money is going to go. They're not going to spend that 48 million all in March. They're just not going to do it. But that's the foundation they have. That's why you've got to keep drafting and keep having guys like Corey Willis become a starter on a rookie contract. That's how you maintain your competitiveness. Now, the last part is finding those five or six studs

that make a difference on Sunday, right? Oftentimes, games just come to those superstars, right? We've seen it with Darius Leonard. We've seen it with Kenny Moore. We've seen it with DeForest Buckner, Justin Houston, right? Those are the guys that win you games. Maybe we'll see it with Carson Wentz. And I do think we're going to continue to see it, no doubt,

with Michael Pittman Jr., with Jonathan Taylor, maybe a little Zach Paschal. I mean, they've got a young nucleus that you really like. They're really doing it the right way. Now that they have a quarterback, they've got some other answers to get to, which I think they will. But it all comes down to Wentz. And if Wentz can play well and have a bounce-back season,

this is the playoff team and maybe more. And that's what Jim Mercer wants and expects. Zach, really great stuff, as always, from you. Thank you again for coming on today's podcast. Colton's now ready to go ahead and follow Zach on Twitter. He's a must-follow at ZKiefer. And go read and listen to his work over at The Athletic and the 1% Better podcast.

Zach, really appreciate coming on today. Hey, thanks for having me. That was a lot of fun.