Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - TURNOVERS: Indianapolis Colts MUST Win the Turnover Battle Against the Pittsburgh Steelers

Starting point is 00:00:01 The hampered Indianapolis Colts limp into a week five matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Let's get to it. You are Locked on Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to Locked on Colts. I'm Zach Hicks, and today we are going to be talking about Colts Steelers one final time before the big game on Sunday. We're going to close out today's show, talking about predictions, final guess, for what could happen and transpire in this game and just an overall vibe feel, I guess,

Starting point is 00:00:41 going into this week five matchup. Segment two, we're going to talk about the Colts defense versus the Pittsburgh Steelers offense. And in segment one, to start off this episode, we're going to talk about the Colts offense versus that Steelers defense that has given them trouble in the last couple years. All that, though, and much more on today's episode, which is brought to you by our friends over at Fandul. Make this your most rewarding season ever with Fandul Awards Club every week. Check the Fandul app and see what's waiting for you.

Starting point is 00:01:06 All right, guys, so let's start with some injuries before we get into just the nitty-gritty of today's episode. The Colts are very banged up going into this game, but we'll see as some of these questionable players are able to go. The guys who are out, though, for the Colts, Jalen Carly's at linebacker, sustained an injury last week against the Washington Commanders. He will be out. Same goes for Arden Key, who's going to be out for a couple weeks with a hamstring injury, and Ashton Doolin also is out for this game with a hamstring injury as well. When it comes to questionable players, Keenan Allen is questionable after missing last week.

Starting point is 00:01:39 He did log a full practice on Friday, so it's trending in the right direction. And the same could be said for Mooney Ward, who was a limited participant all week, but got a full practice on Friday. He is questionable, but it does seem like he should be good to go. And then wide receiver Darius Slaten, who we've been wanting to get him in the lineup at some point this season.

Starting point is 00:01:58 It seemed like it was potentially time to get him activated. He suffered a knee injury in Friday's practice, and he is now questionable as well. So we'll see on his status. But Tanner Bordellini, who's been dealing with an ankle injury all week, had a limited practice yesterday, full practice on Friday, and not on the injury report, so he should be good to go. When it comes to the Pittsburgh Steelers,

Starting point is 00:02:18 wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is not going to be out there for his revenge game. He's going to be out for a couple weeks with a foot injury. Cornerback Jamel Dean is also out, and Safety Deshawn Elliott is also out for this game. Jalen Ramsey and Rico Dattle are both questionable for the same. Steelers. So a bunch of injuries here.

Starting point is 00:02:36 It's always kind of the drawback of coming back from those overseas games, especially for the Colts where they were pretty healthy going into that game. Now going into Week 5, they're a very banged-up unit with missing a couple starters there across the board. But we should see a good amount of Bryce Betcher, should see a lot of Jalen Tuamolo. And we'll see if those guys can step up in the absence of Key and Carlis. Now, when it comes to the Colts offense, though, versus Steelers' defense, the number one thing we're going to be looking at is turnovers. Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. This Steelers defense

Starting point is 00:03:06 this year has been one of the worst defenses in football. If you completely exclude turnovers, their EPA per play drops all the way to 27th in the NFL if you take out turnovers. But because they had been so dominant in taking the football away from their opponents, they are ranked 13th in EPA per play so far this season. Now, maybe not for every team. That would be a huge concerns. Like, okay, cool, we can move the football on them, just take care of the ball. But for the Colts, I think this is a major concern for their offense, where the Colts offense has been a middle-of-the-road offense. If you take away all turnovers, the Colts have been the 16th best offense in football this year. But when you look at turnovers, their numbers

Starting point is 00:03:43 drop all the way down to, I believe I have it right here. They drop all the way down to 29th in an offensive EPA. So the Colts offense has struggled when it comes to just sustaining drives and getting out of their own way because they've been turning the ball over at such a high rate, and now they're going into defense that thrives on that, that just takes the football away,

Starting point is 00:04:04 and doesn't really do anything else exceptionally well. So I hate this matchup for that point there when it comes to the Colts. I also don't like the weather when it comes into this too. It's supposed to be a very rainy game, very sloppy game.

Starting point is 00:04:17 So when you already have an offense that's been turned the ball over as much as the Colts have this year, I really don't like that dynamic there. But I expect the Colts to keep the ball on the ground. this is going to be a run, run, run type of game for the Colts. And if they're able to get Jonathan Taylor and Seth McGowan going early and hold on to that football, they should be able to grind out this game and get into the red zone a little bit.

Starting point is 00:04:38 You know, the Steelers are still pretty healthy up front. Their front seven has, you know, it's been mostly good for them this year. That front, like that front defensive line has been very good for them because they have a lot of, like, name brand guys up there. So I think they're going to be coming after it trying to stop the run against the Colts and it's going to be up to the Colts to, you know, finding that success and continually moving the ball forward without turning it over in this game. Because you know that's exactly what the Steelers want to do.

Starting point is 00:05:04 But, yeah, I would say if you had to put like a prediction down, I think this can be a big Jonathan Taylor game. I think Seth McGowan snaps continue to go up. His numbers, the last couple weeks, have climbed every week where last week he even had 19 offensive snaps. I expect that to be, you know, close to like the 15 to 20 range yet again this week. And hopefully the Colts are able to get all of these. running backs involved against this Steelers defense that's going to be coming after him. But yeah, again, if you had to say the number one bit of success for the Colts offense

Starting point is 00:05:34 versus Steelers defense, it's holding on to the football. The Colts have yet to play a clean offensive game this season without turning the football over. Could this be their first one? That's going to be the biggest question, because I think if they can hold on to the football all game long, then they have a really good chance of winning this one. Also, the health at wide receiver is going to be a big question. question mark for the Colts too because Keenan Allen is questionable and now Darius

Starting point is 00:05:58 Slaten is questionable. We already know Alec Pierce is out. So, you know, how much can they get Josh Downs involved in this type of matchup where it's going to be rainy? It's not going to be this explosive passing type attack probably in this game. So obviously you want to get downs involved, but it can't just be these quick screens that didn't work against the commanders, right? You have to have some kind of varied approach here. So, yeah, is it all Josh Downs? Can we see like Dionne Burks maybe and use his speed to get involved a bit? Can we see, is it going to be like a big Laquan Treadwell game yet again like it was last week. Like the Colts are going to have to find some answers in the passing game because they've had one of the worst passing offenses in football this year,

Starting point is 00:06:35 typically weighed down because of their turnover rate that they have had on that side of the football. So yeah, you know, again, in some degree I really like this matchup for the Colts because the Steelers. Secondary, even if Jalen Ramsey is able to go, is pretty banged up and they've given up a lot of explosive plays. They've given up a lot of third down conversions. but again, they take the football away so well, and that's where the Colts have struggled so much this season. So if the Colts continue the way that they've played the first four games going into this matchup, I do think this is a recipe for disaster and it sets up well for the Steelers.

Starting point is 00:07:09 But if they can run the football, control the game, and not turn it over, I think they can put up 20 plus points even in this rainy environment against the Steelers defense. You know, they can maybe even put up 30 plus if they're able to get the ball back from their defense a couple times. So, you know, I don't, it's such a weird feel for this game. Like, can we see the Colts finally turn a corner or are they just going to continue what they've been doing these first four games? Because what they've done the first four games is not going to be good enough to beat the Steelers team because of the way they take that ball away. So all in all, as long as they don't give Rogers and the Steelers offense a short field, I think that Colts have a really good chance in this one. But that is going to be the big if going into this game.

Starting point is 00:07:49 Speaking of Aaron Rogers and the Steelers offense, they have had a rough. go of it this season. But can the Colts defense, which is surging high on the last two weeks, can they continue their play and take advantage of a Steelers offense that is really poor on third down and really poor throwing the ball in general as well? Matt Derry here from the Lockdown Lions podcast. You know, life insurance is one of those things. You don't really think about until you have a reason to. For me, it really hit home when my father passed away over 20 years ago. You started thinking less about yourself and more about the people who depend on you, making sure they're taking care of, one. That's why I like ethos. They make getting life insurance simple. It's 100% online,

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Starting point is 00:10:08 Already locked on Colts, Everydayers, we are back yet again talking about this Colts defense versus the Pittsburgh Steelers offense. Kind of a pillow fight here when it comes to these two units. The Colts have been much better the last two weeks on defense where the Steelers' offense cannot get out of its own way, kind of like the Colts on their offense, the side of the ball as well. Before we dive into that, though, make sure you guys are checking out the Everdair Club for perks of being a loyal fan of this show.

Starting point is 00:10:32 Get ad-free episodes and a group chat with me and Jake and so many other. fans of the show. All access members also get a text line to Jake and I, and they also receive bonus content as well, a bonus content I put out, a film review of Akeem Davis Gaither and how he's played so much better last two weeks. If you guys want to check that out and much more, again, make sure you're tapping the link in the show notes or you go to lockdown colts.com. All right, so let's talk about this Colts defense and how they have kind of found a rhythm the last two weeks. Now, it hasn't been all perfect, right? Like they haven't taken the ball away at a high rate, only one turnover, forced in the last two weeks,

Starting point is 00:11:08 only two in total on the entire season. And they have still given up some explosive plays, like we saw with Sawdor, the last two weeks, especially last week two against the commanders. But aside from that, I do think we've seen good progress. The communication has been much better. I think the front seven is playing a lot better, especially with the new duo that we have on the interior with Atatomiwa-Adabori and DeForce Buccner, both going crazy. And also the run defense.

Starting point is 00:11:32 has been much better. They're holding running backs at 2.8 yards per carry over the last two weeks. Now, I don't know if that's going to extend at that rate going forward, especially because the Steelers' power run game, especially with all the tight ends again on the field, is very different than what we've seen from the Texans or the commanders the last two weeks. But they have been a much more competitive unit overall. And when you look at what the Steelers want to do, right?

Starting point is 00:11:55 They want to, again, get that power running game going. They want to get the ball out of Rogers' hands as quick as possible, and they want to be able to build offensive success that way. So if you're the Colts, I think the game plan is really going to be coming out here early, establishing yourself as wanting to stop the run, making sure they can't get those four, five, six yards on first down, and then making Aaron Rogers have to push the ball a little bit more down the field because the Steelers passing offense is not overly explosive. Outside of the occasional shot to Roman Wilson, who's been a big play machine for them this year,

Starting point is 00:12:27 they have struggled to generate explosive passing games, and they really struggle on third down as well, one of the worst third down offenses in football. So if the Colts can win first down, get their running game out of sync early, enforce it all on Aaron Rogers, who's not prime Aaron Rogers anymore, then they can have a lot of success in this game. Another thing I've noticed too when watching the Steelers' offense is Rogers does get a little bit rattled early on if you're able to hit him early, so get some blitzes in there early, make sure you're making contact.

Starting point is 00:12:55 I like what the Colt have done recently against play action, which is really blitzing the backside of these long outside zone stretch runs and making sure that that backside defender is just making a B-line right for the quarterback. So if they want to have this like play action play off of these outside zone runs, then you can make that early contact with the quarterback, get in their head, and potentially force a big negative play. That's how they force that fumble against Lamar Jackson in week one. Latu's had a couple really good plays doing that, too, the last two weeks.

Starting point is 00:13:23 So I think if the Steelers want to run that kind of play action game from under center, the Colts have a good chance to get a hit early on Aaron Rogers and potentially get him flustered and get that offense out of sync. But yeah, the Steelers do offer some pretty tough just aspects to matching up with them. I think Jalen Warren is one of the most underrated running backs in the league. I think Darnell Washington is a behemoth, and we've seen him the last couple years when the Colts play him. He is able to make plays that a lot of other tighthands aren't because he's 6'4, 300 pounds, a great blocker. and then if you get him the ball out in space, it's like a roared-ed-it-out-moa-cocks, essentially,

Starting point is 00:14:00 out on the boundary. So I do think that they have some aspects to really be aware of. But if I'm in the Colts, I'm committing to stopping the run, taking away those short-passing windows by playing a lot more man coverage and just making them have to work for it on third down. Get them into third and medium. Get them into third and long. I know this is what we say to every single opponent,

Starting point is 00:14:20 but I think especially true with this Steelers team that isn't overly explosive and does struggle on third down. Make them have to be perfect converting those third in longs and third and mediums. And I think the Colts defense has a good chance to get out of this game. Pretty unscathed. I would also like to see some turnovers. The Colts defense has really still struggled to take the football away. Only two takeaways.

Starting point is 00:14:40 They actually have more fourth down stops this year than they had takeaways on defense. So that's why, again, I did this with the first segment. But if you look at the Colts defensive rank when it's not including turnovers at all, like all turnovers are excluded from the equation completely for every single team. The Colts are actually the 17th best defense in the NFL this year in terms of EPA per play. But if you factor in turnovers, the Colts drop all the way to 25th because they are not taking the football away. So again, when I say turnovers are going to be the most important aspect of this game, I truly mean it because the Steelers are a team that is thriving because they're taking the ball away.

Starting point is 00:15:15 They're playing above expectation because they're taking the ball away. And the Colts are playing below expectation because of the goal. because they're giving the ball away and not taking away with their defense. So it's just going to be the biggest emphasis this week, especially in the rain, punch at that football, try to get that ball out and get a short field for the Colts offense, which has had one of the best red zone offenses in the league this season, top three pretty much across the board in every metric. So I do think that, again, getting that ball out of Rogers' hands quickly,

Starting point is 00:15:44 making sure they're punching at the football in the rain here, and trying to make a big difference there, I think is going to be big. But yeah, you know, anytime you go against a veteran quarterback, you know they want to get that ball out quick. You know, they want to get it to their playmakers in a hurry because they're at the point in their career where they're not going to be running around in the back fuel for for like 10 minutes like they used to, right? Like, that's just not the nature of Aaron Rogers game right now. It's not the nature of where the Steelers want to live. But they will take advantage of you if you play soft, if you roll over in this game. So that's another big element of this one, right, where the Steelers are coming to this game off of 10 days rest.

Starting point is 00:16:18 They played last Thursday. They are at home in this one, too, which always gives you a little bit of an advantage, where the Colts are coming back from overseas. They're a bit beat down from that game, a couple injuries here and there. So what kind of Colts team do we see? If the Colts are able to step up to the physicality early in this game, I do think they have a really good chance of shutting down the Steelers offense. But if they kind of just roll over and die in the first quarter, right?

Starting point is 00:16:42 Because, look, it's a tough run game to counter, right? Jalen Warren, a very good running back. very good power blockers up front on the offensive line that just want to put you in the ground, especially with Zach Frazier at center, one of the best centers in football, arguably the best center in football after Creed Humphrey, and then Darnell Washington, who's going to put pressure on you as well. Like, they will run you over if you let them. So for the Colts, the key is making sure that they can punch them back early, make them, make the Steelers and everyone know that you actually showed up for this football game

Starting point is 00:17:13 and then force them into those third and mediums and third and long. So I think the Colts defense has a decent chance in this one. I like their chances better here than I did obviously in the first two weeks when I was so concerned about the run defense and so concerned about other aspects. I do think they've been playing better. They've been communicating better. They've been playing more physical as well. Like they do have a lot of things going their way defensively going into this game. It's just they can't roll over in this one.

Starting point is 00:17:38 This can't be like the first two weeks where Kenneth Walker 416 mistackles. Derek Henry ran through a bunch of arm tackles. This has to be like the last. two weeks where the Colts have a combined three mistackles on defense the last two weeks. That's it. Three missed tackles, only a 2.7% mistackle, right, the last two weeks. If that continues in this game and the Steelers are unable to create explosives by forcing mistackles, the Colts defense has a really good chance of keeping this to a low-scoring game.

Starting point is 00:18:05 So, again, I like the matchup for the Colts defense, but they have to show up, they have to be physical, and they have to care about this game. And that is always something that has been a concern in my time covering the Indianapolis Colts. But coming up, we're going to give our final just prediction for this game where I think this game ultimately goes. Can the Colts win the turnover battle? Because I've been hinting at it. I've been just talking about it this entire episode. And then some minor predictions thrown in there as well. October and November can get chaotic fast between Halloween, football, Thanksgiving prep, and everything else filling up the calendar, cooking dinner can easily

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Starting point is 00:20:55 giving our, again, final thoughts on this Colts and Steelers game. The Colts head to Pittsburgh where they have been cursed historically as a franchise. I believe the numbers I saw, they are two and 18 all time in Pittsburgh, and one in 13 since they moved to Indianapolis, their lone win coming in the Peyton Manning era. The fact that they only had one win in there in the Peyton Manning era says a lot because the Colts won everywhere during the Peyton Manning era. It has been a tough go at Pittsburgh, especially last year, like we saw too, where they had all those turnovers and it was beginning of the end of the 2025 Colts and that beautiful story that we had. So can they overcome the demons on a short week coming back from London where the Steelers

Starting point is 00:21:34 are very rested and they're at home? I just think that's just so many things just stacking against the Colts in this one. I think it's going to be a low-scoring, ugly, ugly football game. But I had the Steelers barely winning this one. Again, just the Steelers always had some kind of like voodoo magic on their side where they are able to win games when they probably shouldn't. they win more than what they should every single year. And I just think all of that is just working against the Colts in this one.

Starting point is 00:22:01 I think it's going to be a field goal fest. I think it's going to be low scoring, sloppy, a lot of running the football with both passing games being very out of sync. Like it has been throughout the year so far for both these teams. So I'll go with, I don't know, Steelers like 16 to 13 in this game. Just pounding that under on all of your betting sites in this one because I don't think it's going to be a good one. But yeah, I think that the Colts defense can win in some ways, but I think their inability to take the football away is going to hurt the Colts, where, again,

Starting point is 00:22:33 the Steelers' ability to take that ball away. And with how poor Daniel Jones has been at holding onto the football in the pocket, now we're getting a rain game here potentially, I think that could lead to some really bad issues, especially with T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, Herbig on the other side, like those guys are really good at taking the ball away, like they did in this matchup last year in a good weather game against the Colts. So I think this is going to be a low-scoring one. The Colts, the key is just going to be getting past midfield, running that ball, getting in a field goal position, and getting points on the board. If they're able to do that and hold on to the football, I think that you can

Starting point is 00:23:06 reverse that score. Let it be 16-13 Colts or 19-13 Colts, something like that. But I do think that just the Steelers' ability to take the ball away is going to flip this game in their favor. But I like the matchup across the board on both sides. Aside from that, like I think the Colts defense can respond to what the Steelers' offense wants to do. I think the Colts can run the ball in this one if they're really committed to it. So, yeah, I have this as a true, like, coin toss game. Anytime that you predict the score where it's, like, a one-score game, I really think it is like a coin-toss type game, but I just give the edge to the slightly healthier

Starting point is 00:23:40 home team that's got a little bit more rest in this game. But overall predictions, let's see, if we want to do some interesting ones here. I think Seth McGowan gets his most run of the season, because I think that think again, this is going to be a game where both teams just want to run the ball constantly in this one. So let's give McGowan like eight carries in this game, eight to ten carries in this one, along with Jonathan Taylor getting like 20 plus carries. I think the Colts are going to have more rush attempts than pass attempts in this game. And I want to say McGowan gets his first NFL touchdown in this one.

Starting point is 00:24:12 It might be the only touchdown the Colts get, but I'm going to say that Seth McGowan finishes the day with his first NFL touchdown, much of the chagrin of all Jonathan Taylor fantasy football owners out there. I think the Colts special teams could be something that factors into this game a big way. The Colts Special Teams unit has been among the best in football this year. And when it comes to starting field position like differential, the Colts have been really good in terms of the kicking gains. Spencer Schrader has been money this season.

Starting point is 00:24:40 The punting game, Regalbert-Sanchez, been top five. And that might be another thing that just factors into this coin flip game going the other way to the Colts, where if the Colts are able to, again, not turn the ball over. and if they are giving the ball back to the Steelers, they're pinning them down with inside their own 10, inside their own 15, that could force those long fields for the Steelers and really sway the outcome,

Starting point is 00:25:02 the Colts way. And then on top of that, again, looking at Spencer Schrader, like his ability to make every kick this year, if he's able to keep that going in this one, the Colts have a very good chance at grinding out this victory. So I'm going to say,

Starting point is 00:25:14 yeah, the special teams have a really big place in this game, and if the Colts are going to win, it's going to be because of those little details that they are able to win. with special teams. When it comes to defense, where I want to go with this one? Do you want to go with Latu having a couple sacks in this one? Like let's give Layatu Latu some cleanup sacks because Rogers has that propensity to,

Starting point is 00:25:35 if he rolls out of the pocket and he sees a guy coming, he'll go down and take a couple sacks. He's taking quite a few sacks the last couple weeks. I believe he took five against the Cleveland Browns last week as well. So let's give Latu some sacks in this game. Tommy and Buckner wreaking havoc, forcing Rogers out of the pocket where Lattu's able to clean it up. I also think he's going to get a bogus, not like a bogus sack, but one where he is rushing the backside of a play action. He just runs right in Rogers and Rogers slides down and

Starting point is 00:26:00 we give that sack to Laotu-Latu. So, yeah, I think it's going to be, again, like if you like defense, if you like running the football, I think this is going to be the game for you. If you like high-flying, like 50-to-50 type games, I don't think that you're going to want to watch this Colts Steelers game. But yeah, I feel good about the Colts run the ball a lot. Feel good about it being more of a lower scoring game, a little bit of a sloppy game. But yeah, the Colts can just hold on to the football. I know, again, I sound like a broken record. I've said it 70 times this episode, but it's going to be the biggest storyline of this game.

Starting point is 00:26:31 If the Colts can hold onto the ball, they win. If they lose a turnover differential, I think the Steelers win. Because in coin flip games, those are the things that decide it. But, yeah, like, again, even though I had the Steelers winning this one, I think it is a true coin flip, and we'll see which way it's able to break come Sunday here with the Colts and the Steelers. but I want to hear what your guys' predictions are. Who do you guys have leading the Colts in receptions?

Starting point is 00:26:53 This is going to be a Tyler Warren Day where it's like eight receptions for 50 yards or something like that. Do we see Laquan Treadwell lead the Colts in receptions yet again? Like he has in some of the games this year, or do we finally just get back to the tried and true, force the football to Josh Downs and let it go from there? I want to hear who you guys think leads the Colts in receptions this week. And also just your overall score prediction, you know, do you think I'm right? Do you think I'm wrong?

Starting point is 00:27:18 Go go again? me there in the comment section below. And let me know what you're feeling about this game. The Colts have to get the monkey off their back eventually. Two and 18 all time in Pittsburgh. Are they able to break that curse and continue rolling forward this season? Or we're going to see much of the same from this Indianapolis Colts team. So again, let me know in the comment section below.

Starting point is 00:27:38 And if you guys want another way to stay locked on to the Colts every single day, we're introducing Locked On Colts hit, your daily hit of espresso on the team that you love, quick, strong, five minutes or less. find Lockdown Colts hit on YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcast. If you don't already, make sure you're following at Lockdown Colts. At Jake Arthur and a felon at Zach Hicks 2, all on socials. If you never miss an episode, the Everydayer Club is also built for you. Get us ad-free plus members-only Discord access and much more.

Starting point is 00:28:04 Head to LockdownColts.com to join the club. Jake is on the road out to Pittsburgh, so he will be covering that game from the stadium. But make sure you guys are tuning in to the Lockdown Colts Squad Show after the game on Sunday, as I'll be joined by Will Starlipper and Alan Pinkett to, to break it all down.

Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - TURNOVERS: Indianapolis Colts MUST Win the Turnover Battle Against the Pittsburgh Steelers

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