Locked On Colts - Daily Podcast On The Indianapolis Colts - Weighing Pros and Cons of Potential Julio Jones Trade for Colts

Episode Date: May 25, 2021

On today's episode, Evan is joined by Stampede Blue's Stephen Reed to weigh the pros and cons of the Indianapolis Colts potentially acquiring Falcons superstar WR Julio Jones. Does it even make sense for Indy to pursue Jones?On the positive end, Jones would make Indy's offense truly elite on the same level as Kansas City and Buffalo. With so many weapons, QB Carson Wentz could return to top 10 form immediately.Why won't Indy do this? Well, they would need to include a player plus a pick to make salaries work with Atlanta. Also, would GM Chris Ballard be willing to operate over the cap with looming big money extensions for Darius Leonard, Quenton Nelson, and Braden Smith?Closing out the show, Evan and Stephen reveal whether Indy should truly make an aggressive push for Jones. Colts fans, you won't want to miss this one as we dissect a potential Julio trade to Indy from all angles! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You are Locked On Colts, your daily Indianapolis Colts podcast. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello everybody, welcome back to your latest episode of Locked On Colts, part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Today's always your host, Evan Sidery, joined by Stephen Reed of Stampede Blue. When we were back here on Tuesday evening to talk through, I think, one of the more interesting donos we've seen happen late in the offseason like this. In a really long time, honestly, we haven't really seen a superstar player ask out in this type of manner. I know the whole Aaron Rodgers drama going on in Green Bay. we'll have to see if that ever gets to a conclusion here.

But Julio Jones, the Falcons superstar wide receiver, is asked out of Atlanta officially, according to Ian Rapport of the NFL Network. He actually asked for a trade a couple months ago, and he actually went on undisputed with Shannon Chirp and Skip Bayless and was on the phone and said that he wants out of Atlanta. So we're probably going to be seeing some happening here after the post-June 1st deadline, Stephen. There's been a lot of smoke around the Colts,

and I think for obvious reasons, they do have sort of a need for an alpha wide receiver at this point. They do have guys like Paris Campbell and Michael Pittman who they expect to take leaps in 2021. T.Y. Hilton is around for another one year on his deal. But other teams around the NFL too, like Tennessee, New England, and others are probably going to be interested in Julio Jones as well. And the Colts are right around the mark where you need to be for Julio.

I think his cap hit is around $15 million this year, 15.3 to be exact. After the Eric Fisher signing was official today on over the cap, they have $14.8 million. So just right around that mark, Stephen. So first off, how are you doing today? And what's your thoughts on this Julio stuff going on? Hey, Evan, I'm doing well today. Yeah, the Julio stuff is kind of interesting.

When you really break it down, it's – I go back and forth. Like, he's such a great player. But there are some obvious roadblo, to the Colts going in aquarium. I thought the, uh, I saw this skip bail or the, uh, undisputed thing, uh, with Shannon Sharp, skip bail us on that. Um, I thought that was kind of shady to me, uh, cause it didn't seem like Julio knew that he was on live TV at the time. Now, Ben Albright, after the fact,

said that he knew 100% on it and that there was definitely some knowledge there by Julio that he was being kind of broadcast. But based on the conversation that I heard, I'm not so sure. And to me, that just seems like kind of really shady because he was really open and honest. And you me, that just seems like kind of really shady because he, I mean, he was really open and honest. And you say things personally to people that you may not necessarily want aired

publicly. And so it's very clear that, that Julio once out, it was reported by Adam Schefter. After that, that dropped, the little bit by Shannon Sharp dropped that he requested a trade from Atlanta and that they obliged and that they were looking for options. Obviously, for Atlanta, it makes the most sense to do it after June 1st so they can stretch out that salary cap hit. The interesting thing with Julio Jones' salary, though, is you mentioned the $15.3 million in base salary, and that's what any new team would be acquiring. He's got three years left on his deal.

First year is $15.3, and then the next two years, the base salary drops down to $11.5. And so that's a pretty good bargain for a player of Julio Jones's caliber. With the salary cap expected to increase. It's kind of one of those deals that you see Chris Ballard make where like he gives a guy big money in that first year. And then after that, the money drops off. So then he has more flexibility to do things with the roster. But Julio Jones is one of those elite wide receivers.

So I think any team that would look to acquire him would be obviously looking at him and saying, all right, well, you know, you've got a guy that is over the past, gosh, since 2014, every single year he's put up almost 1,400 yards receiving, with the exception of last year where he was injured and only played in nine games and still put up 770 yards in nine games. So still pretty good totals overall with a really high catch percentage. So he's a great player. For me, there's a couple roadblocks that I wonder if the Colts could make it happen. Yeah's start off here we're going to go over the episode in three formats here we're going to

start off with the positives of Julio Jones then we'll dive into the negatives of Julio Jones and Indy and then close out Steve with our predictions of what exactly is going to happen with Julio and if the Colts will actually be involved or not but let's start off with that report from Ben Albright who like you mentioned confirmed that it seems like I was playing all along for Julio to be live on the air and Shannon Sharp not really throwing him off guard with asking him that on the air, but he did mention after the fact that he did hear before the NFL draft actually happened that three teams checked in on Julio Jones, and that was the Indianapolis Colts, the Las Vegas Raiders, and the Baltimore Ravens. Obviously, the Ravens did draft Rashad Bateman in the first round. They

probably still would want another wide out because they do need to add another alpha in that room. But you have to think, if that is true from Albright, he's been pretty spot on most of his career with breaking these types of news transactions. That means the Colts did check in on Julio Jones. We don't know if it was just a simple, hey, what's the price? Oh, never mind. We're not going to do it. But checking in on Julio after the fact, even after signing T.Y. Hilton in some sort of capacity, is really intriguing to me. Yeah, well, and we don't know when they checked in on Julio Jones. They just know that they did.

So it could have been actually before T.Y. signed, because T.Y. didn't sign right when free agency opened. So it could have been they checked in to see what the price was. Atlanta was saying, all right, it's going to be a first-round pick. Colts, all right, well, let's go in another direction. Julio Jones is, when healthy, he's an alpha receiver. Like you said, he's a wide receiver one. He's a two-time first-team all-pro.

Since 2014, he's made the Pro Bowl every year, first-team All-Pro since 2014. He's made the Pro Bowl every year, except for last year, where, again, he was injured, only played nine games. So he's got a ton of experience. He's still an explosive playmaker, but he's had some injury issues the past two years. And so you wonder whether he's declining in terms of his production. He's 32 years old right now. So same, right around the same age as T.Y. Hilton. And so you just kind of wonder what he's got left. But if he's the Julio Jones that we all love and we all try to get on your fantasy team,

that he would be just an absolute godsend of a weapon for Carson Wentz and the Colts. And I think, quite honestly, if all things being equal, and you could acquire Julio Jones or T.Y. Hilton, I would think that the Colts would lean more towards Julio Jones. Again, if you're sitting there saying, all right, well, we're going to have to give up a day three pick or a late day two pick for Julio Jones, or are you going to sign T.Y. Hilton? I think that they probably look to Julio Jones in that scenario. But from everything I'm seeing, Atlanta wanted a first round pick for Julio and nobody was going to give that to a guy that's coming off an injury and had a down year last year. So he's 32 years old and he's still got a pretty hefty price tag there on his

guaranteed money at $15.3 million. Yeah, looking at Julio's stats this past year in Atlanta, like you mentioned, he didn't miss some time, played nine games in 2020, but he had 51 receptions for 771 yards and three touchdowns. The year prior in 2019, 99 receptions for 1,394 yards and six touchdowns. Truly a player who would be an explosive piece of the Colts offensive if it were to happen. I'm actually looking at the odds right now via BetOnline, our betting partners here at LockedOn Podcast Network. And it looks like here the Colts are currently

sixth in the pecking order. They had the Patriots as the favorites, Tennessee right after that, then Baltimore, Green Bay, San Francisco, and then the Colts at plus 900. So they're right in the mix there, but you have to wonder here how much there actually could be interest or not. But looking at Julio from the perspective of how you could add explosiveness to this offense, you'd have Julio Jones and Michael Pittman on opposite sides of each other, Stephen. At that point, I have to imagine they'd probably move T.Y. Hilton to a full-time slot role. I think that'd probably make the most sense for how they want to do that with Pittman and Julio. Add in Jonathan Taylor, Marlon Mack, and Naeem Hines in the backfield

and this offensive line. I think Julio would take this team to another level where they could really do pick-your-poison type of stuff with Jonathan Taylor and Julio Jones. And those play-action concepts that Carson Wentz has bagged on, that has some truly lethal potential if that were to happen. Well, yeah. The way you phrase that is good because if you're able to move ty to the slot i

think that that's a better position for him for probably the remainder of his career because last year he had some trouble getting off you know tight press coverage if you're in the slot you get a little bit of wiggle room before that defender can really get their hands on you and so you get a lot more clean releases there from the slot position. You put Julio Jones and Michael Pittman there on opposite sides and feel very confident about that. Julio fits that size profile that Chris Ballard really likes in wide receivers, 6'3", 220.

He's a vertical threat too. Again, he's one of the best wide receivers of this decade or the past decade. And I don't think anybody would really argue that. He's such an explosive playmaker, especially if you start to utilize that play action with Jonathan Taylor, which I think is going to be one of the big hallmarks of this offense coming this year

is using that play action, getting some rollouts, getting Carson Wentz some open looks on the move down the field. And if you've got Julio Jones on one side just streaking down, you can't pull your coverage over to Michael Pittman Jr. or over to T.Y. And I think Jim Aiello pointed out on your podcast a couple days ago or recently how the Buffalo Bills in the playoffs put your day this way on Michael Pittman Jr. because they respected the talent that he had and he followed him through the entire game.

So if you've got a team, a really solid defensive team like Buffalo, who realizes that Michael Pittman Jr. could beat them. And so they're going to shadow him with their best cornerback to put Julio Jones opposite him. That's going to give Michael Pittman Jr. a lot of play just with one-on-ones. And you feel very confident with his growth towards the end of that season or towards the end of last season and he's going to be able to make that next step and playing against with Julio Jones opposite and with T.Y. Hilton in the slot like the Colts could be a top top three top five offense in in 2021 if that were the case yeah looking at how that would stack up, like I mentioned,

Julio, Pittman, T.Y., Paris Campbell is more of a gadget guy as your WR4 at that point. You add in the trio at running back. From Carson Wentz's standpoint, I mean, it's kind of like a no-fail scenario there where you would have an elite wide receiver, an elite running back, a legitimate WR2 in Michael Pittman, and a low low tier WR1 in T.Y. Hilton. Add in the offensive line where if you were to go get Julio Jones, Steven,

I think that'd be the Colts betting on not only being a Super Bowl contender right away in 2021, but really betting on Carson Wentz. If he does get back to form under Frank Reich, like this offense could match the Buffalo Bills. They could match the Kansas City Chiefs if they were to get into a January situation in the playoffs. Oh, yeah. Yeah, I'd feel really confident about that.

And the Colts' defense also would be able to keep them in games, even if they have to. The Colts' defense is so good at causing turnovers that you feel confident that your offense can score enough. And if you can get Kansas City or Buffalo or Cleveland to make a mistake and you're able to capitalize on it it really puts them in a great position to advance but yeah adding a player like Julio would definitely I think it would bump them up a tier like they're already in that like that borderline tier two tier three range in the AFC. You add Julio Jones and you're pretty clearly in tier two. And you're making a bet that Carson Wentz is going to be back. Because if he's not back, you're not going to give up the capital to go get somebody like Julio Jones. I mean, quite honestly, I don't think they're going to give it up anyway, but if they do take that proactive step to go get Julio Jones,

I feel like that they're going to do that because they know they have a lot of confidence in Carson Wentz that he's going to take the next step and that that first round pick next year is going to be gone to Philadelphia. And then any future pick that they trade to Atlanta in this scenario is going to be just a late pick in that round. So I think it's fair to say, Stephen, I think you pretty much answered the question for me there. Would adding Julio to this mix on offense make Indy a suitable contender where you would feel confident enough in saying,

you know what, if we had Julio into this offense, we have the defense in place, we have a quarterback we're betting on to be in the top 10 range this year in 2021, and adding Julio really could cement that. Do you think that puts them on the same level as like a Kansas City where you feel like they would be in the AFC, a legitimate top two, top three team that really can make a run for it? I think as with everybody probably that's been on is it depends on Carson Wentz but I think Julio

is just another piece of that puzzle that gives Carson Wentz another weapon and allows him to succeed I think if Carson Wentz is is even you know top 10 top 15 quarterback I think it puts the Colts in that position to be a top two top three team in the AFC just because of how good this roster is I think you're always going to be playing catch two, top three team in the AFC. Just because of how good this roster is, I think you're always going to be playing catch up to Kansas City just because Patrick Mahomes is who he is. He's just a phenomenal player. So Kansas is going to be the number one. But the Colts, after that, I feel pretty confident that the Colts are right in there in that mix with Buffalo and Cleveland to be in that number two spot.

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along the lines of the Colts would have to send a player back. I doubt they're going to restructure Carson Wentz's contract, free up $15 million, but kick it more down the road. We still don't know how Carson Wentz is going to be doing in Indy long term just yet. We have to see him on the field in regular season action. So it would have to look like something along the lines of a player plus a pick going to Atlanta to make the salaries work because the Colts are about $500,000 short from a Julio Jones cap hit mark. The Eric Fisher signing was official today, around $6.5 million base salary. So it puts the Colts at $14.8 million according to Over the Cap.

Julio's salary is $15.5 million base salary. So it puts the Colts at $14.8 million, according to Over the Cap. Julio's salary is $15.3 million. So it sort of makes sense to me, Stephen, could maybe be a conditional second-round pick in next year's draft. Obviously, with the caveat being Carson Wentz, more likely than not would be a second-round pick. So let's just say a conditional second-round pick to Atlanta, and if it doesn't convey, it would be a third-round pick, plus a player like Ben Banigou, whose salary is $1.5 million,

who is really in the doghouse hot seat this year for 2021 as a potential edge rusher of the future for the Colts. You can maybe throw in a conditional second-round pick in next year's draft, plus Ben Banigou, and that trade and the framework would work out perfectly from the salary's perspective. Yeah, I would think that that would might be a little bit high um in terms of that conditional pick uh if they're also giving up dan banigou and i know he hasn't gotten an opportunity to play i still think that

pick's probably going to be around three pick um and so that's something, though, that I brought up on the UK Colts fans. I was on yesterday on one of their Twitter live broadcasts, and they asked me that same question. And I said, you know, ideally, if I were going to make that trade, I'd be looking at offering a round three or a round four pick and Ben Banigou on there because Atlanta needs a pass rusher. Ben Banigou really kind of needs a fresh start. It just doesn't seem like it's worked out well here in Indianapolis for whatever reason. And he's still got talent. He's still just a freak

athlete. He should, if he's coming in the same situation that taekwon lewis came into uh last year is that third off season coming in you haven't really done anything your first two you know your third year you're going to get an opportunity but your fourth year is not guaranteed so you they'll they'll cut you and it won't be any skin off their back so you really got to prove it with them drafting quitty pay and now dayo adengo who um or dayo adengo who they expect to you know basically be your starting defensive ends um next year like with quitty pay this year coming in and being the starter at the right defensive end and then you've got Deo they expect to come in and and fully rehab and then be the starter at the opposite end you got Kamoko Ture

you got Taekwon Lewis you got Al-Kadim Muhammad you got Isaac Rochelle where does Ben Banigou fit in and if the Colts are able to make that trade and send say for example, I think my situation in round four, it's probably going to be around three, and then Vanigoo for Julio Jones, it allows them, like you said, to fit them in underneath the salary cap because you move that 1.5 base for Vanigoo, and it allows them to open up that roster spot for Julio Jones. It allows them to keep that draft compensation relatively low in terms of what they'd be giving up. It gives Ben Banigou an opportunity with a

franchise that would let him play. And I think it would be a best case scenario for everybody in that situation because unless Ben Banigou turned it on this offseason and really shows out, I have a hard time thinking that he's going to be able to crack that starting lineup or get rotational snaps even at this point. Last player that I thought about in a potential Julio Jones trade and one who, if they were to acquire Julio, I just don't know if he'd be seeing a role here in 2021. He is an upcoming free agent for this season as well. Zach Paschal, I know the Colts coaching staff loves. He's a great run blocker, a great route runner, really is a team player. But if they were to acquire Julio, you'd have Julio, TY, Pittman, and Campbell all above him on the depth chart. So he'd be WR5 at that

point, not really getting much playing time outside of just a few snaps here and there and special teams. I do wonder if Paschal is a player that, let's say Atlanta really is driving a hard bargain. They want, hey, we need to find a Julio replacement on the cheap, and maybe Zach Paschal could be that guy. I wonder if he's a player that if the Colts are seriously interested in Julio Jones, that he could be brought up in conversations. Maybe. I just feel like Zach Paschal is too much of a glue guy on this team. The front office loves him. All the players love him. I've always kind of gone and made the comparison of him being like a poor man's Heinz Ward. He's going to go in, block, do all the little things, and he's going to be sneaky good and always catch whatever you throw at him. He's developed every single year. He's gotten better.

So I feel – I'm not sure they would move Zach Paschal, and I don't think that they would want to. Even as a wide receiver of five, I'll tell you, the wide receiver I think would get less snaps is T.Y. Hilton in that scenario because at that point you're probably trying to're trying to run TY in the slot. So you're trying to run TY on the slot anyway, and that's going to be the same position that Paris Campbell is, is going to be in. Paris Campbell right now is a much more explosive player than TY.

Um, TY was such a savvy route runner, um, that he'd be able to, you know, run circles around, around DVs and get open. But he's lost a gear, and Chris Ballard acknowledged that, that he's not the same T.Y. he was five years ago, where it was all deep balls and you just couldn't touch him. Paris Campbell, if he's healthy, and from everything we reported, he's 100% healthy this time coming into training camp, you feel really confident that he's going to take

that next step. So I would say that the player that would lose snaps is actually TY. And if they're looking for a guy to send back, I don't know who the Colts would have at the wide receiver position that Atlanta would jump on. Because you're not moving Michael Pittman Jr. T.Y., he's won your contract, so you're not taking him back if you're Atlanta. You know, for Atlanta, I think they'll just want to get out of it and not have to absorb too much more salary. So, you know, Paschal, I love Zach Paschal. I just feel like he's such a – just that blue collar type player that the Colts love. And it just seems like that's probably not going to be a guy that they move. Just, and again,

that's just my opinion on it. I just feel like they love him too much. And he does too much of that blue stuff, goes in and blocks and, and does all that dirty work that the Colts really love. Let's go to the negatives now, Stephen. And the first one being money. Like we mentioned, the Colts have $14.8 million in salary cap space right now. Not enough technically to even get Julio Jones just absorbing his own contract. They have to send back a player like we just went over there. Another point is something that Adam Schefter, Ian Rapport all mentioned when the Colts are super quiet and free agency.

Chris Bowers even mentioned this multiple times in the offseason. They are saving money for extensions for guys like Darius Leonard, Braden Smith, Quentin Nelson, Naheem Hines possibly as well. This money, if they do it, they are going to extend Braden Smith and Darius Leonard later this offseason. When they do that, they're going to be near zero on their money for this year because they're not going to let Leonard and Smith play on less than $3 million per year this year on their salaries. With Kenny Moore's extension a year or two ago,

they bumped the salary significantly even in that first year. I think the Colts want to reward their players who'd play well for them, and Leonard and Smith have both done that. Let's say they extend both those guys to top five deals, Darius Leonard's case being the highest paid linebacker in the NFL. The Colts will be pretty much out of money at that point, Stephen. If they do absorb Julio Jones, they'd be operating as an over-the-cap team at that point, which Chris Bowers really tried to avoid over these past few years. So from a financial standpoint, it does put the Colts kind of in a bind there if they were to acquire Julio.

Yeah, it would, to a point. The salary cap is always a fungible thing. You can massage it. You can maneuver it around. You give people extensions, toss money in future years. So I think they could make the money work, but that's probably the exact reason that they would give for not making the trade because they do want to get these extensions done,

and they don't want to really strap themselves down in the future. They want to leave those options available. And so I think that's the exact reason that they would give is they want these extensions specifically for Darius Leonard Braden Smith this offseason. And then you've got Quentin Nelson coming up the year after. Now, you're able to move those extensions and kind of play with that and, you know, give those guys some guaranteed money up front. I think if you look at the next, like next year, I think the Colts are like second in cap space overall. And then the year after that, I think they're like top overall and total

cap space. But a lot of that money is going to get eaten up really quickly by these guys getting their extension. So, yeah, the money is the big issue. It's something that the Colts have said all along, this offseason especially, that they've been very reluctant to spend big money on outside free agents for that very reason. And so this would be kind of a step out of the norm for them if they were to make a trade for Julio Jones. And again, I think Julio would be a great fit. I just don't know if the Colts would be willing to do it. Colts fans, rockauto.com is the place you need to go if you want to save money on your next car or service.

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Howdy Your Boss box. Another point we should bring up here, Steven, as far as the possible negatives for Julio Jones, would be potentially taking away significant targets for players like Michael Pittman Jr. and Paris Campbell if he stays healthy. Because you look at Julio's career so far in Atlanta, especially the last couple years when he's been fully healthy, 157 targets, 170 targets, 148 targets, 203 targets in 2015.

This is a player who needs at least eight to 10 targets plus per game as a true number one wide receiver. And we all know Frank loves to spread the ball around. I think their highest player in targets last year was Naeem Hines at running back. And after that, you saw T.Y. Hilton and Michael Pittman, who didn't even cross the 80 target threshold. So I think if you add Julio Jones, who's an elite talent and would definitely help elevate the ceiling of there, I don't know if Frank Wright really needs a Trina one wide receiver the way he likes spreading the ball around because you have Pittman, you have Hilton, you have Campbell, you have Hines in the backfield, you have the tight ends as well.

You have to wonder if getting Julio on board really changed the plans where maybe put some extra pressure on Carson Wentz to really feed a Julio Jones where he might not be content getting only five six targets per game yeah that's a great point the the wide receiver room it's it doesn't have the big name guys on there but it's got a lot of guys that they like and so Julio would undoubtedly take away targets from Michael Pittman Jr. It would take away snaps from Desmond Patman, who they're really high on as the outside receiver. You're taking away targets from Paris Campbell to see what he has. So you're also taking away snaps to the tight ends. And like you said, if Julio really wants to be fed the rock,

then who are you going to take those targets away from? And are you going to force it to him? And Carson Wentz is a good enough quarterback where he's going to have the time. And Julio is the type of receiver where he can get the separation that they're going to be able to target him that much. But I'm not sure that's really where the Colts want to go with it yeah I think it's a fair assessment because the Colts even with T.Y. Hilton in 2018 when Andrew Luck was on board here he led the team in targets but it wasn't like a significant amount like a Julio Jones type of target share he had 120 targets in 2018 the first year in Frank Reich's offense in 14 games.

That's a great number, but it's around eight targets per game. I believe Julio is more so around the 10 to 12 range. So maybe you do change it up a little bit there and you add Julio to that mix, it'd be more so in the range of like eight to nine targets per game, which still obviously would help raise the ceiling for this Colts team. But you have to wonder if it's exactly what Frank Reich needs and what players like Michael Pittman Jr. and Paris Campbell needs to him because we've heard it all

offseason, especially from Chris Bowden, Frank Reich, and others in the Colts organization. They are extremely, extremely high on Michael Pittman Jr. taking that WR1 leap in 2021. If Paris Campbell stays healthy, I think it's going to be a true mismatch nightmare in the slot. I think they want to see what those guys have in 2021 because if they both take leaps, it's going to need to happen with them getting fed. And getting Julio on board here, that's not going to happen. And I think maybe the Colts are preparing themselves

where T.Y. Hilton could be a guy who's maybe like the second or third most targeted guy behind Pittman and Campbell because they trust those guys so much. Well, and to counter that, like I think that's a great point, but to counter that is if you that's a great point but to counter that is if you bring in a guy like julio then offenses aren't going to be able to focus on on campbell or pitman and so you're going to get a lot more one-on-one macros for those guys and you know if if julio is going to be a team player about it and is going to accept not getting quite

as many targets as he did in atl Atlanta because you actually have really good wide receivers outside of just Julio here in Indianapolis, then the Colts have the opportunity to – like Michael Pittman and Terrence Campbell have an opportunity to have just absolutely massive years because they're no longer having to face double teams with it. But I think Julio is – he just seems like the type of receiver that really needs those targets. And so I would be surprised now we go back to the positives

and you now have yourself a three-headed monster at the wide receiver position for the Colts with Julio being your wide receiver one. Michael Pittman really kind of sliding into that Reggie Wayne role is a one, one B. And then you've got Paris Campbell who really could be like that Brandon Stokely style receiver that Peyton Manning used to have in love. And so you've got a lot of options there for the Colts if they do trade for Julio Jones, but I just don't see it happening for, you know,

the numbers reasons for in terms of the salary cap, and then also for the targets. Like you said, I just feel like Julio is not going to be necessarily happy, not getting as many targets. Yeah, totally agree with you there. It's gonna be so interesting to see if the Colts actually are involved in this Julio Jones process. I think it's gonna be reaching a crescendo here within the next week or two with the way the smoke is coming out of Atlanta right now with Julio's camp. But let's dive in now, Stephen, into our overall thoughts of what we think could happen here. Do you think the Colts are going to be a serious contender for Julio Jones?

I personally don't think it's going to happen. I think they trust these young guys in Pittman and Campbell so much. They think they have T.Y. Hilton, who could be able to have a bounce back here with Carson Wentz, with some more deep shots that he's not really had the last couple of years. And I think, especially with the extensions only for Darius Leonard and Braden Smith, they're not going to want to operate as an over-the-cap team. I really think the Colts probably checked in before the draft to see how much it would cost and said no thanks. But I'd honestly be pretty stunned if the Colts do end up being a serious contender for Julio Jones.

I see teams like New England, like Tennessee, especially end up being a serious contender for Julio Jones. I see teams like New England, like Tennessee, especially Tennessee, I think it's going to be very desperate to try to reach the Colts level this year in 2021 and not have any drop off after losing Arthur Smith. I think they could be a team that could really pay a heavy price for Julio Jones, maybe overpay a little bit there. And especially from the draft standpoint, I don't think that Chris Bowers is going to want to go the next year's draft with just one pick in the first three rounds I really think that we could see the Colts really pass on Julio Jones and really just bet on these young guys yeah I'm kind of the same mindset I just don't think that it's going to be a a logical thing for the Colts with with his cap number and the looming extensions that they have. The one positive is that Julio's base salary goes from $15.3 million down to $11.5 million for the

two years following. So you might have that opportunity there for him to really fit in under the salary cap. But I think you're right. I think the Colts, it just doesn't feel like the type of move they're going to make. And I could be totally wrong. This could all be a total smokescreen that the Colts were interested before the draft, and now they're not, but they really, really are. That's one of the reasons why I love the draft and why I love free agency and trades and everything like that,

because really, as fans, we don't really know what's going on there. I think a team like Tennessee makes the most sense. They're desperate to compete with the Colts and they've got to recognize that last year was a fluke that they ended up winning the division because DeForest Buckner got COVID, was diagnosed with COVID leading up to the game. And then you had two other players, two or three other players for the Colts go down. And then you had Anthony Costanzo get injured in that first half there. So it was such a fluke situation for the Colts to lose to the Titans last year.

And the Titans lost two major playmakers in John New Smith and Corey Davis. So they can't run into next year with the guys that they've got and feel confident that they're going to be able to keep up with the Colts offensively. So I think Tennessee probably makes the most sense in terms of a team that's going to give up that high second round pick or give up that second round pick to get Julio versus, you know, somebody that the team like the Colts, like I don't see Chris Ballard giving up more than a third round pick in this situation. Now, again, who knows? Round three pick and Vin Banigou might be enough to tempt him.

And that, that could be it because Tennessee doesn't really have that to offer in terms of a player, you know, a potential defensive end coming back. So that's, I don't see it really for the Colts for cap reasons and then for the compensation reasons because, like you said, I don't see Chris Ballard wanting to give up a second pick in the first two days of the draft coming up for 2022. All right, thank you, Stephen, for joining me on today's episode

talking through the Julio Jones trade scenarios, and we'll obviously cover more on this when it does happen. But in the meantime, Colts fans, go ahead and follow Stephen Fina already on Twitter at Nice Read Steve and go read and listen to his work as always over on Stampede Blue. Stephen, appreciate the time today. All right. Thanks, Evan. Have a great one.