Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - Can Austin Reaves Make an All-NBA Team? Can Redick Get Coach of the Year Votes?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Can Austin Reeves make an all-N-B-A team? The Lakers certainly hope he can. That's next. You are Locked-on Lakers. Your daily Los Angeles Lakers podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Thanks to everybody for stopping by Lockedon Lakers, Brian Komenetsky, Andy Kaminetsky,

Starting point is 00:00:27 we're less than a week away from the beginning of training camp, the long, nightmarish, cold summer, Andy, without real basketball is coming to an end. I want to let everybody know that today's episode is brought to you by Square. Right now, you can get up to $200 off Square hardware at square.com slash go slash NBA. Run your business smarter with Square. Get started today. So, all right.

Starting point is 00:00:57 So plenty of plenty to talk about. Was it Friday, Andy, we started breaking down some of the numbers that are friends at the Fanduel Sportsbook had in their future, those would be considered futures, correct? Yes. And, you know, we talked about Luca and MVP and some things like that. And, you know, the Lakers' chances of advancing the conference finals, all those good things. But we left out a couple important ones on the board. And I think a few of the most interesting.

Starting point is 00:01:32 Like, we've talked a lot about Walker Kessler. We've talked obviously about Luca. The pressure that Austin Reeves is under this year to perform. I know it's one of the questions in the fan survey, the off-season survey that you've got circulating for people to answer. So we'll post that. Please make sure you're contributing to that. But I think Austin Reeves has pressure to produce at a level.

Starting point is 00:02:00 I don't think it was matched by anybody on the team. and where his name pops up in honors like MVP, all NBA, things like that, I think it's worth noting. Well, at the risk of spoiler alert when we eventually do go over the results of the survey that you all contributed to. So thank you very much. Austin is definitely, for the time being, things could change the clubhouse leader for the category of Laker under the most. most pressure for this coming season. And by the way, I included J.J. Reddick, included Rob Polinka. I went off the board in creating that question beyond just the players. And even with a wider variety of choices, Austin is still leading the field for very understandable, obvious reasons.

Starting point is 00:02:54 His salary from last year tripled. There are, I think, no concerns about whether or not Austin is a good player. He is clearly a good player. I do think, and I have expressed these questions many times, there are reasons to be concerned about whether, A, he is worth the money that he's going to be making even as a good player. You can be a good player and still be overpaid, or too much for this, for the modern, very restrictive and often punishing NBA cap, and also, too, whether there's too much redundancy, not enough offsetting of weaknesses with Luca and Austin paired together for a foundation. But insofar as Austin's odds from Fandul of making an all-NBA team this year, 10 to 1 to make any all-NBA team. So just to make that cut period. And before,

Starting point is 00:03:55 I think a lot of people would think 10 to 1, wow, that sounds pretty generous for Austin. Bear in mind that like the top 10 to 15 guys in there like SGA, Luca, Yokech, Wembe, you know, Jalen Brunson, some of those obvious choices, those are guys that you're actually getting negative odds for. Like, you know, bet $100 to win 50, something like that. So 10 to 1 puts Austin about 30-ish on that list. He is grouped with guys like Bam, Bam, out of bio, Franz Vos. Wagner, Alpi Shangoon, Amman Thompson.

Starting point is 00:04:34 So that's roughly the level of player that Austin is listed with. And whether Austin makes an all NBA team or not, to some degree, is going to be, you know, subject to his own availability with health and also the availability of his peers. What really matters? Really, really the, I mean, because if we're being honest, the, if everyone, everybody stays healthy, I think it's being generous, you would, it's not a top 20 player in the league. Right. You would say 10 of those spots, if everybody stays healthy on the 15 available for

Starting point is 00:05:12 all NBA, are locked up before the season even starts. That is probably being generous. And so, you know, it's a little, you know, the, you are correct. Like, it's, it can't just be about, does he make a team or doesn't he? because that is kind of an unfair bar it's put in front of them. Right. But I do. But it is important for Austin to be playing at a level that if nothing else feels like all NBA light or maybe even like gets three votes, like gets three votes for third team.

Starting point is 00:05:53 If Austin gets just three votes for third team, that means he's a guy. who had a really good season. Like case and points, some of the guys who got third team votes last year, but, you know, were nowhere close to making an actual all-N-B-A team. Alpern-Shingun, Lamello Ball, Stefan Castle, like Bam Etabio, Brandon Ingram, like Evan Mowbly. These are really good players. A lot of them are former All-Stars themselves.

Starting point is 00:06:25 You know, same we've talked about with Austin making the All-Star team. And All-Star may be more of a realistic goal just because it's a wider. Much more. Much more. It's a wider, yeah, much wider field, injury. You know, he might end up an injury replacement and still counts. But again, what really matters is does he pass the smell test for All-Star caliber player? Does he maybe you have to snip a little bit harder, but pass the smell test for all NBA?

Starting point is 00:06:55 Is there a faint odor of all NBA? It really matters. It matters a lot to justify both the contract, but also the vision of Luca and Austin together. I think it's, it's, you know, like to carry your conversation a little further, you know, who else are guys who got votes? Denny Avi, it was a guy who came closest to making a team and didn't. He had 26 total points in 23 for third team, one for second team.

Starting point is 00:07:28 Carl Anthony Towns Scotty Barnes James Hardin guys like that you know You are in the third team really quick Really quick the third team Was Maxi Tyrese Maxi Jamal Murray Jalen Johnson Jalen Durham Chet Holngrum

Starting point is 00:07:43 It was a really damn good players Really good players right Yeah and so you know Mike Conley I make this comparison all the time Mike Conley for years Never made an all-star team just never made it Always got squeezed by this that or whatever But like you could always look at Mike Conley and say that is an all-star caliber player.

Starting point is 00:08:03 He plays at a level that is, you know, year in and year out, you'd be like, oh, if Mike Connolly was on an all-star team and you ignore the snubs part of it. We're like, okay, that makes sense. He's that kind of player. And I think Austin almost surely would have made the All-Star team last year. and I think might have been a guy who was on the board for, you know, that also receiving votes category in all NBA, particularly given some of the, you know,

Starting point is 00:08:34 the games limits and stuff like that that people ran into. I mean, we're talking about a guy last year averaged, you know, as a guard, 23 and a half points, almost five rebounds a game, five and a half assists shot 50% from the floor. I'm rounding up from 49, but I think that's fair. and all that stuff. The problem with Austin was that he didn't play enough games. And in the next segment, I kind of want to talk about this because I think this question breaks down on a couple different ways.

Starting point is 00:09:08 Do you think Austin is good enough? Do you think Austin is durable enough? Do you think the Lakers can play successfully enough? There are a lot of questions that go into the football. formula of whether or not Austin can play at that level for an entire season. But what is not debatable, Andy, is the need for him to do it. So we'll talk about that now. Don Lakers is brought to you by Square, the system powering so many of the places we already know and love, whether you run in a packed game day spot, a local restaurant or growing business.

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Starting point is 00:11:52 Just go to Indeed.com slash podcast right now. support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply need to hire. This is a job for Indeed sponsored jobs. So, as I was noting about a minute too early, it's, you know, Austin has put up numbers that you think about as all-star level. There are not a lot of guys, you know, who average.

Starting point is 00:12:29 average 23 and a half, almost five, five and a half with, you know, a steal of game and, you know, the 49% from the floor and the amount of free throws he took per game last year, over seven a game. Like when you start to break that down over the course of, you know, over the, you know, compare it to other star players in the league, it's, you know, these are numbers that really stack up with a lot of people. Now, I think the scoring average is going to need to go up a little bit this year, although not as much as I think it might have had the Lakers not kind of put together a team that ought to be able to score a little bit. But he's got to do, you know, produce a little more without losing a lot of efficiency. And, you know, particularly without

Starting point is 00:13:15 having LeBron around, you know, there's going to be more attention, there's going to be more pressure, there's going to be more ball pressure, all of these things for Austin to perform. So I'll ask you this. Using last year as a statistical baseline, not in terms of games played, but just the output on the floor, how much better do you feel like Austin needs to be to sort of justify the contract, justify the confidence of the Lakers have all that stuff? I think he needs to be considerably better. I mean, I'm not saying he needs to be playing at an MVP level because that's not realistic.

Starting point is 00:13:56 He's not good enough to do that. But I think he needs to look to improve in a lot of different areas. I think he needs to become a more reliable outside shooter. I think he needs to grow as a playmaker. He has certainly taken strides. And Austin's taken a lot of strides year by year in a lot of different categories. But he's going to need to be better. I think he needs to find ways to be more effective defensively

Starting point is 00:14:21 that don't involve taking charges. because while I think it's great that he takes as many charges as he does, like it is something that his teammates will respect. For that matter, Luca takes a lot of charges as well. Like they are both last season. They were both among the league leaders in charges per game. But I think in the case of Austin, where the last couple years in a row,

Starting point is 00:14:45 he has been beat up come playoff time or not healthy or dealing with something, I cannot help but wonder if his style that involves drawing contact on both sides of the ball because he's always trying to get to the line, I think he's going to have to work on refining ways to be effective as a score that, you know, I don't want him to avoid going to the line because it's obviously he can get those trips as somebody who shoots almost 90% from the stripe. Those are really important. But he needs, I think he needs to work as much on just. getting to the rim without worrying about contact. He needs to become a better, more reliable outside shoot or catch and shoot, all of that stuff.

Starting point is 00:15:28 And find ways, again, to be ways to contribute defensively that don't always involve putting his body in jeopardy because I think it catches up to him at the time of the season where it matters most. Yeah, I think the last one's fair. I know it's something we've talked about. Like, it's, I think one thing that will help is, is you can't. give up, like you say. You just can't give up that notion of Austin as kind of a free throw monster. This is just, it's too critical a part of his game. And quite frankly, he's too good at drawing contact. He's too good at getting guys, changing pace, changing direction. Like, you know, some of these

Starting point is 00:16:10 sort of weird, awkward looking stuff that he does is really, you know, by design. I was shocked. I saw a number, I forget who put it out the other day. So my apologies. But like, While his turnover numbers against his assists are not low, most of his turnovers are actually in the commission of passing rather than turning the ball over on his own attempts to get to the basket and things like that. It doesn't always look like he's got a lot of control over the ball, but he actually does. So that part of it's really good.

Starting point is 00:16:41 But I think if you could cut down maybe on the times where he goes to the rim where the express purpose of that trip is to, you draw contact, he'd probably be better off. And the tricky part about this, because I don't think statistically, I think another couple, from 36 and a half to 37 or whatever, up to 38 and 39 would certainly be a nice bump for his three point percentage. The assists, I think, will naturally go up with LeBron not there. I'd be surprised if he didn't average six or seven assists this year,

Starting point is 00:17:18 just because there are going to be more assists out there. for the taking. I think the point totals will go up this year. For me, the biggest thing is it's two years in a row. Like you point out two years in a row where he wasn't healthy in the playoffs. And, you know, I am bullish on Kessler's ability to do what the Lakers need him to do. I am bullish on Austin's ability to do it.

Starting point is 00:17:52 What I am much more bearish on when it comes to Reeves are those questions about health because like you say, so much of his game is predicated on physical contact and defensively, I don't know if that's something like you can fix because that is the way he's able to. I know it's like it makes, it's nothing, not an unreasonable thing.

Starting point is 00:18:16 learn how to do, learn how to find other ways to contribute. I feel like that is as much a JJ question. And we'll see if having a true rim protector makes a difference in that. We might see Austin as the low man less often, which could lead to fewer charges. And I don't think I need to explain why it wasn't ideal for on a bunch of different levels for Austin to be that last line of defense. Because it's not, it's not like focus or. will that keeps him from being, you know, an effective perimeter defender in isolation.

Starting point is 00:18:51 So like that's not something that can change with additional, with, you know, with additional attention to detail. So my hope is that Kessler's presence just means he doesn't have to do it quite as often. The last thing I would say, too, as far as why this matters. And again, it's not even so much that Austin ends up all NBA. It's about looking the part. It also really matters a lot because if, say, for whatever reason, Austin is playing well, but it's just clear. They need a different player alongside Luca as part of that foundation with Luca, presumably Kessler, moving forward.

Starting point is 00:19:35 Like, it's the problem isn't Austin as a player. The problem is Austin as a fit with Luca. and you need to move Austin, it is extremely important that he's playing well because if he's just playing, you know, pretty good, but not really well,

Starting point is 00:19:54 that contract is going to be difficult to move. It just is. Well, difficult to move for the caliber of player. Right, for sure. Yes. I mean, he's going to be making close to $50 million a season. Austin needs to be playing very well.

Starting point is 00:20:13 Yeah. that to seem like a movable contract. It's just true. There are other Lakers that are in, you know, sort of on the board for different awards. And we'll talk about what...

Starting point is 00:20:27 A couple are funny. A couple that probably shouldn't be, but, you know, we'll talk about what those names have to do with raising the floor, raising the ceiling for the Lakers this season. We'll do that next. Locked on Lakers. is brought to you by Fandul.

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Starting point is 00:22:07 We all know at this point sort of too what like the six man profile is. He's usually, you know, the first second guy off the bench on a really good team plays big minutes. often a bench score, you know, is, you know, usually the profile, but comes in, plays a big role, you know, nice statistics, easy to quantify their impact and all that kind of stuff, helping a team stay near the top of the Western Conference standings. The bench last year was a desert wasteland for the Lakers. It was just routinely awful. And so for the Lakers to be able to put, and they had both, they had actually three guys, but only two of them are going to be eligible. Colin Sexton was up there.

Starting point is 00:22:56 Quentin Grimes is on the list, but I think he ended up starting. Most people agree with that. And Mammu was already there, also there. That's a huge thing for the Lakers. And I think when you also think about what can elevate them beyond the names of the roster right now, most improved is an interesting place to look. and the Lakers have some names there, including some that probably shouldn't be, but let's focus on the ones that should first.

Starting point is 00:23:22 Well, Walker Kessler is one. He's the highest Laker on this list at 30 to 1. By the way, the odds-on leader right now for Fandall is Brandon Miller at 8 to 1. Also, he's going to have a lot of stuff on his plate in the new version of Charlotte, followed by Dylan Harper at 11-1. Walker Kessler at 30-1. he's an interesting choice, A, just because, you know, we've talked at length

Starting point is 00:23:49 about how much is riding on Kessler this season and his importance, but also he is going to be just frankly watched more as a Laker. Like Walker Kessler is going to be discussed more in a week this season on ESPN any week than he will have for his entire previous four years. years combined and doubled. And I'm not exaggerating. Well, other than, other than when he was being talked about as somebody who could be

Starting point is 00:24:22 traded for acres. But even then, though, even, even then, man. But you get my point. Like, in isolation of just, let's just talk about Walker Kessler in no way having to do with where he might end up or any of these other things. Yes, you are 100% right. Right. And there was something actually that I asked, uh, David Locke, the, the host of Locked on Jazz. and Tony Jones from the athletic who covers the jazz and the Sixers, which made him an awesome got to go to for scouting reports because a bunch of players on this team played for either of them.

Starting point is 00:24:56 But I asked them both, like how they thought Walker Kessler was going to react to a brighter spotlight and more scrutiny. And they both honestly said they weren't sure. Like it was something they were really curious about, but they both thought he could have a terrific impact for this team. and in particular Tony Jones was talking about him like somebody who could have, you know, Rudy Gobert level of, Rudy Gobert level of effect protecting the paint and blocking shots and

Starting point is 00:25:25 rebounding and all that sort of stuff. But just the idea of being seen more on a team that matters if he's playing well could get Walker Kessler a lot of attention seemingly for improved, even if a lot of this is, know you're actually just watching me more. And then it's pretty, but it's also, it's pretty common.

Starting point is 00:25:46 You know, the league has gone a little better about this, but it is still pretty common for, you know, it's to be less about making a genuine statistical leap and more like doing the same thing in more minutes on a team with more consequence. Yeah,

Starting point is 00:26:04 absolutely. And then Quentin Grimes and Mamu are both at 70 to one. And I, they're both kind of, interesting cases too because for someone like mamu i think this is going to be seen as his opportunity to be viewed as more than just kind of the the plus minus data geek uh favorite you know the the type that NBA wonky folks really like you know like the real words Andy yeah say the word real ones no you know like real ones and statsy geeks no right like again more exposure on this

Starting point is 00:26:40 team. And Quentin Grimes, too, is somebody that has bounced around a bit and he's coming off a season in Philly that I think overall was kind of down, but also I think there was a lot going on, including being very unhappy in Philadelphia because he couldn't work out a contract with them and he was playing on a qualifying offer. And Tony Jones said to me during the scouting report, it was very clear all season he was going to leave the Sixers. But he also went from a situation where he was playing a ton because the Sixers had all those injuries to a place where his spot in the rotation and his responsibility level went way down because all those guys came back. And they also drafted BJ Edgecombe who, you know, with because they were so bad

Starting point is 00:27:26 when Grimes got to play, not because it was his fault, but you understand my point. Right. So Grimes, again, similar to Mamu and Kessler, he is going to have an elevated role. Everybody's expecting he's going to be a fixed starter on this team, unless something very surprising happens, a fixed role on a starting team, you know, starting role for the Lakers with Luca, with Austin, we'll give you a lot of attention. And if he plays well, I think he could potentially be somebody who gets a few votes. He's still young enough, too, to I think kind of make that cut. And you know, Mamu is an interesting case too because, and I think his candidacy would be tied to maybe sort of either leapfrogging or equalling Sexton on what I hope will be a sixth man list because I really do believe that Mamu's best role here is a guy who plays 25 minutes a night but off the bench where he can ping pong between backing up at power forward, backing up at center, maybe playing a little bit with whoever starts at either one of those positions. But, you know, if he makes a leap, if he, you know, if the Lakers are really good and he's playing

Starting point is 00:28:39 big minutes and, you know, he was averaging 13 or 14 off the bench with, you know, six or seven rebounds, whatever it might be. They get the point, like, are they going to win these awards? Almost certainly not. You know, Mammu would have to do some crazy stuff and the Lakers would have to be like way above expectations for this sort of thing to happen. But what it does is it gets people in the conversation. And being in the conversation means you're doing a lot of things right.

Starting point is 00:29:12 And you know, you mentioned it with Kessler. And I think the same thing applies to Mamu, the same thing. Well, I think to some degree of private crimes, anybody who plays with the Lakers, honestly. You know, that attention is really good for getting you the love for something, you know, or really getting like the same level of criticism. kind of in the other direction. So, you know, the opportunity is there for all of these guys. But so is the downside.

Starting point is 00:29:42 It's what makes playing for the Lakers a fascinating exercise for players. Locked on Lakers on YouTube is right. Wait, really quick. We didn't mention the hilarious. Oh, you're right. You're right. Really quick. Bronny James, Jake LaRavia, and Dalton Connect,

Starting point is 00:29:58 all 500 to 1 to win most improved player. It feels like a long time. Save your money. Just save your money. Yeah. But amusing. Yeah. Locked on the Lakers on YouTube is ringing out with over 39,000 subscribers. Do make sure that you are liking the show, that you are subscribing on Apple iTunes, all of that good stuff. Leave it.

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Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - Can Austin Reaves Make an All-NBA Team? Can Redick Get Coach of the Year Votes?

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