Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - Can the Lakers Still Win With Luka Out? Plus, Could Reaves Become too Expensive?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Hey, everyone, welcome to Lockdown Lakers for Wednesday. Brian Kaminetsky, Andy Kaminetsky, the Lakers hope to get healthy tonight in Minnesota. And meanwhile, is Austin Reeves playing too well for the Lakers? We'll explain next. You are Locked on Lakers. Your daily Los Angeles Lakers podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Thanks to everybody for making Lockdown Lakers, your very first listen of every day. Somebody asked me the other day, and he said, how do you know you're our first listen? I said, because I know. I can tell.

Starting point is 00:00:42 If you're lying to us, we know. Thank you for making us your first listen of every day. Monday through Friday, no matter how you get your podcasts. This one's never going to be behind. A paywall for you, locked on Lakers on YouTube is where you can go hang out with almost 37,000 subscribers to the channel, Andy, all of whom are hoping the Lakers can take the floor tonight in Minnesota with something more than the skeleton crew that was available to them against

Starting point is 00:01:05 the Blazers on Monday night. So it is imperative for the Lakers to get healthy. And to that end, they, are they looking at maybe some improvement? Marcus Smart and

Starting point is 00:01:21 Jackson Hayes are questionable for the game. Which combined with JJ expressing optimism, hope that they could play on Wednesday if nothing else feels like it is possibly trending in the right direction.

Starting point is 00:01:39 Overall, I think if you had to choose between one or the other to get back, you would choose Marcus just because right now, as we discussed, at great length for Tuesday's show, they are so low on ball handlers. They need somebody else who can be out there to help try to create some type of structured, cohesive offense. But at the same time, given Minnesota's size with Rudy Gobert and. and Nas Reid and Julius Randall, there is a pretty big role for Jackson Hayes looming as well if he's available.

Starting point is 00:02:12 And they need a rotation beyond five guys that JJ, I think definitively trust the five guys, by the way, were the five starters against. Only one of whom, if we're being honest, can dribble at an NBA level for like, guard skills. As JJ said, on Monday, it is difficult to win without ball handlers.

Starting point is 00:02:39 And they had one guy that could do it who was coming off a 50-point game and putting out tremendous energy in Sacramento, having to repeat it against the Blazers. Marcus Smart gives them a second NBA caliber rotation level guard. and that is something without Gabe Vincent available, without Luca, without LeBron, with, you know,

Starting point is 00:03:09 and Bronny James still very much in a learning capacity and not, you know, shouldn't be expected to run point in a game where the Lakers are, you know, trying to be competitive. You could have stopped your sentence with in a game where the Lakers, just period.

Starting point is 00:03:26 Right. I mean, you could do garbage time. He can do whatever. He can go play. But like when you're, that's not an actual game. Right. To put to put Brony up against NBA level competition, NBA, you know, not G-League stuff, but NBA competition. And expecting him to do that point guard role especially is just not fair.

Starting point is 00:03:45 So that's not really a choice. They have Nick Smith. They have Chris Mannion. It's slim pickings, to say the least. So getting those two guys back would be a very significant thing. obviously playing alongside Austin Reeves, who, by the way, interesting question that was asked by Sam Amick

Starting point is 00:04:05 at the athletic about the future of Austin Reeves, whether or not this heater he's on is ultimately going to cost the Lakers, quite literally in some ways, which we'll get to here in a second. But Minnesota's going to be playing this game without Anthony Edwards. And there is no question that you take Ants away from Minnesota. It's like any game where the Lakers are playing without Luca.

Starting point is 00:04:34 It's certainly a game without Luke and LeBron. If you're the other team, it doesn't really matter who else is left or who else is going to take the floor. You're like, you know what, that changes the equation enough that we can win. So the Lakers are playing without Luca. They're playing without LeBron, but you look at Minnesota without Anthony Edwards. It says it's still a very good team, but they are much more beatable, especially if those two guys can get on the floor.

Starting point is 00:04:57 Yeah. the starting lineup for the Lakers, if they have Marcus Smart, who I think would reenter the starting lineup, he's been there for one game and then got hurt. And then Jackson Hayes, if you're talking about a starting lineup, I'm guessing of Reeves, Marcus Smart, Ruey, Dandre Aiden, and Jared Vanderbilt, if I had to guess. I think that is basically along the lines of a starting lineup of Julius Randall, Jade McDaniels, Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley Jr., who is really beginning to look his age pretty drastically, and Dante DiVincenzo, who has not been off to a great start to this season, I think those lineups are basically comparable where the Lakers are. At the very least, Andy, I would say they're comparable enough that you don't go,

Starting point is 00:05:46 that's a huge mismatch. Right. I don't think it's a massive mismatch in either direction, even if you think, and I think it'd be reasonable, that Minnesota's is better in the aggregate. Now, where the Lakers are really going to have trouble, even if Smart and Hayes are both hopefully available, is production off the bench. You're looking at a bench I'm projecting, at least, of La Ravia, Hayes in this scenario, and Dalton will get minutes, how he plays in those minutes, and hopefully the way he closed the game against Portland. He looked better as the game

Starting point is 00:06:23 went along after a very rough start. Really signals some comfort. He talked about it afterwards that he thinks maybe there can be some momentum. But those are the three guys you know are going to be out there. Then you look at Minnesota. It's Nas Reed, Bones Highland, Terran Shannon Jr., Rob Dillingham, maybe Jalen Clark. He's questionable for this game. That is definitely advantage Minnesota.

Starting point is 00:06:47 And that is, that is potential production. Like, Nas Reid alone, forget the other. other guys, they're going to have to try to account for. Just the, Andy, just the volume. He named like four guys, five guys. That's more than the Lakers can go get. Yeah, I mean, whether by defending Nas read really well or attempting to somehow match him shot for shot point for point, like, Nas by himself is going to be a challenge for the

Starting point is 00:07:18 Lakers bench with the amount of guys that they're missing. but if nothing else, hopefully the Lakers starters, if at this version of full strength, they can compete that way, they can maybe at least hold serve or create some advantages against Minnesota's starting lineup without Ant. That's a very big deal.

Starting point is 00:07:36 It would be, and they're going to have to score to make this happen. Again, it would be super useful to have Marcus. It really would. I look at this, you know, it matters if the Lakers win or lose. I am not trying to sit here and be like, oh, you know, you take the, you know, it's a learning experience. You don't, you ignore the final score.

Starting point is 00:07:57 No, no. None of the Western Conference. Can't do that. Every game matters. It matters whether or not the Lakers win or lose. They're going to be without Luca, presumably at least through the game on Sunday, possibly into early next week. We'll have a little bit of health supposition there. But at the very least, there's no reason to think as of yet that Luca's injury, which was he'll be

Starting point is 00:08:19 re-evaluated in a week is going to stretch much beyond a week, 10 days, whatever it might be. So long-term, Lucas should be back. Short-term, you've got to win some of these games, and they've got a lot of games in between now and then. It's just a bad sort of quirk of the schedule. You look at what they did, but there's still some things I think you can draw from that you say sort of independent of the score, playing without Luca, playing without LeBron, missing some of these other guys, opens up opportunities that can be valuable for them as the season goes along. We mentioned Dalton.

Starting point is 00:08:55 We can talk a little bit more about him. Jared Vanderbilt, I think, has had an opportunity to get more minutes in a more involved role. I think that's something that we can talk about in the next segment. And the third guy is DeAndre 8, because over the last couple of games, the sort of advertising, high strength of Aiden, which was very strong pick and roll player, I think we're starting to see what that looks like. And it's, it's been true, but it's been true in ways that I think are different than what Lakers fans might have been picturing. And so there's an opportunity to keep that momentum going. We'll get to it next. Lockdowne Lakers is brought to you by Quo. One of the tools that

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Starting point is 00:12:10 Aiton, because we're starting to see kind of how he fits a little bit, how his style of play fits what it looks like where he's most comfortable in Vanderbilt, because this time with all these guys missing is just, he's playing more than he otherwise probably would have. I think a lot of people, when they picture pick and rolls, especially with Luca, it's, you know, high screen, hard roll to the basket, lob comes up, throw it down, all that kind of stuff. That's not really Aiton's strength as a pick and roll player. He can get to the basket, but he's not a high flyer above the rim kind of guy.

Starting point is 00:12:47 Where he has excelled and we're starting to see it is that little short roll pick and then go into the pocket there, wait for the pass, and hit that 8-footer, 10-footer, 12-footer, little push-shot, whatever it might be, depending on the defense. And over the last couple of games especially, it has become very effective, and he has started to look very comfortable. Yeah, you and I were texting during the game against Portland,

Starting point is 00:13:13 and I said, like, watching DeAndre Aiton hit a flurry of mid-range jumpers and push shots and little hook. A lot of them kind of between the circles. It really reminded me of why I kept harping on for a few years about why Anthony Davis really has to be offensively a center in the NBA. Because D'Andre Aitin may not stretch the floor like in the way we think about it in modern NBA terms from behind the NBA. He's not a stretch five by any stretch of the imagination. He is really good from like that true mid-range area, and he forces teams to either guard in there, which will by definition open up some space, or because defenses have been

Starting point is 00:14:03 so trained now to ignore that area because it's considered a quote-unquote bad shot. Aiton actually has utility as a pick and roll partner in ways that I think Anthony Davis really doesn't as consistently, certainly Jackson Hayes doesn't have at all. It kind of shifts the way D'Andre Aiton can be used on this team. And I think everybody is starting to find the ways that he's most comfortable and most productive. And to your point, it may not be exactly what everybody was imagining, but that doesn't mean it won't be effective. Right. I mean, I don't know if I totally agree. I'd have to think about your point about AD in, you know, the relative comparison. But I mean, look at the numbers, man. They're there.

Starting point is 00:14:49 It's not even just the numbers, but like, you know, in terms of, you know, AD as a mid-range guy in terms of moving the ball, there's a lot of stuff you can do with them. But the larger point about, certainly if nothing else specifically as a like a pick and pop guy. Sure. And AD is not as good as DeAndre Ait. Sure. Okay. And I mean, my concern, my real interest at this point is just like what it looks like with Aiton. And, you know, obviously he's doing a lot of this with Reeves and not Luca.

Starting point is 00:15:19 because Lucas missed a couple games. But like, it's not like Luca can't figure this out. Like, Luke is watching this and seeing it, he can replicate the same stuff. And so, you know, they will open up more opportunities when Luke is back in the game. But whatever it is that Reeves and Aiton are able to kind of forge right now is exactly what Luke is going to be able to do with them as well. Like that part of it will carry over. And to get that feeling of comfort of understanding how Aiton is most effective as an offensive player.

Starting point is 00:16:01 And it's a little for us like you'd love to see him be more physical around the basket, offensively, draw more files, play through contact. Okay, that's fine. If he did all of those things really consistently, he wouldn't have been available because then people wouldn't have had those complaints about him. It's interesting. He offers physicality around the rim, just not as a score. Not as a score, right? He mixes it up as a rebounder, aggressively goes after that.

Starting point is 00:16:27 But, you know, our friend Max Kellerman, who we used to work with at 710 ESPN, has made this point about a variety of players. It's like you look at guys and especially the great players. Like, wouldn't it be great if they did X, Y, and Z? Like, they do all this stuff. But if they only did this, they'd be the greatest of all time. Like, it would be great if they were even greater. And like, it would be good if Aiton was even gooder at what he, what he does.

Starting point is 00:16:54 But the Lakers finding that comfort spot and making it so they are able to tap into the version of Aiton that has the highest upside for this team is critically important for them to raise the ceiling on this season. I mean, it's got a natural limit until everybody gets back. but what they're learning now and Aiton's ability to really get out there and be counted on and aggressive in a way that like I think in that first game he looked tentative in part because it's like I'm playing with Luca, I'm playing with AR, there's Rui over there like I don't want to get in the way like I want to I want to just do my job, I'm a good soldier, I'm doing my job, I'm not going to call my own number, all that stuff. And in the second half of the Minnesota game particularly, you could see something cranked

Starting point is 00:17:43 his gears up to from third gear to fifth gear. And he has been much more aggressive and comfortable and moving with purpose since then. And I see no reason why that will stop when everybody's back. But I also think having two or three more games where he really gets to be a focal and get that muscle memory is very beneficial. Speaking of Luca, when we're talking about him eventually operating some of this action with Aiton, there's a piece over at The Athletic written by Sam Amick,

Starting point is 00:18:13 Joe Varden and Mike Vorkenoff. And it's largely about the NBA and this gambling scandal and some of the questions that are specifically created by injury reports and availability, players being questionable, yada, yada, yada. But there's a little section here about Luca that I thought was worth noting just because it hopefully provides some optimism about his availability pretty soon, talking about, again, injury reports. gambling and whatnot. From the team's perspective, there's certainly a gray area here that is increasingly difficult to navigate. In Donchich's case, for example, even the smallest chance that he might have been able to push through and play in Sunday night's game might have changed a team to delay its reporting. From a team source, the Lakers and Donchich did, in fact, discuss the prospect of him taking the one-hour flight on Sunday from Los Angeles to Sacramento to play

Starting point is 00:19:07 before they ultimately decided against it. And again, the larger context for this piece, piece was about the NBA and gambling. But to me, what jumped out is, okay, if there was even a discussion about Luca potentially playing on Sunday against Sacramento, it continues to provide me with some optimism that this will not be a long absence. We'll see, but that was my take. The other guy that I think is critical. I mentioned the top of the segment is Jared Vanderbilt.

Starting point is 00:19:38 And I know you have long hoped that the Lakers would be able to put it, you know, in a position where he could play bigger minutes just because his skill set is different than, you know, most everything else on the roster. Yeah, and Jacob Rood, friend of the show over its silver screen and roll in his postgame report guard from the Portland game. He framed something in a way that I had not thought of before, but I think it's really smart. And again, provide some optimism moving forward with Vando.

Starting point is 00:20:07 Talking about his performance quote, if I was nitpicking, I would say there's a bit of a deceiving box score. Vando had some real head scratches that led to turnover. or empty possessions for the Lakers, but as was the case with everyone, he was being asked to do maybe a little more than he was comfortable with, so I won't nitpick.

Starting point is 00:20:21 Instead, this is the important part, I'll note that Vando playing 27 minutes against the Kings and 28 minutes against the Blazers in a back-to-back is very encouraging to start the season. I'll admit, I had not even thought about that before, the idea that Vando was playing in the mid-20s,

Starting point is 00:20:41 mid-to-high-20s, in back-to-back games, just because there were so much others to be thinking about with these injuries and what does it mean. But it was a smart observation by Jacob. And yes, that is really important because it hopefully signals no, seriously. Vando actually has recovered from all this bleep and injuries and really is ready to look much more like the guy from the first half season with the Lakers where he was very productive and important. Yeah, and I feel like you can take, you know, 25 to 30 minutes a night of Vando is probably too much. But when everybody's healthy, if he's still in this same physical place, you can get, you know, 15 to 20 of him going truly full out and like, you know, in full disruptive mode and get the most out of him while also protecting against some of his weaknesses. So I agree with you.

Starting point is 00:21:35 It's really good to see. Is Austin Reeves playing too well for the Lakers? We'll explain next. Lockdown Lakers is brought to you by Peloton, shaping the future of fitness with the brand new Peloton Cross Training Tread Plus, powered by Peloton IQ, their most advanced equipment yet designed to give you real-time guidance, endless ways to move, whether you're running, lifting, or cross-training with your favorite instructors. This is training, reimagined. Peloton is built for breakthroughs with tools that help you plan, stay motivated, and reach peak performance. the Peloton IQ system offers real-time strength coaching. It actually tracks your reps, suggests the right weights, correct your forms, makes every rep safer and smarter. With the personalized class recommendations keeping you engaged, you get workouts tailored to your vibe and energy level each week.

Starting point is 00:22:26 So let yourself run, lift, flex, and push forward. Explore the new Peloton Cross Training Tread Plus today on Onepelton.com. All right. So our friend Sam Amik at the. athletic writing about Austin Reeves poses the question of whether or not Reeves, who is on a heater to start the year, 36 points a game, 8.5 assists, 7 rebounds. We all know the 51.11 rebound, 9 assist game he put up against the Kings. Well, let's remember he's going into a contract year. And there were Lakers fans who were balking at the idea of the Lakers paying him

Starting point is 00:23:11 30 million a year. Well, if he keeps anything close to this up, it's going to be a lot more than that. And that's in a lot of ways, the question that Sam is asking is whether or not Reeves is playing at a level that actually could make his offseason cost problematic. Yeah, just to add a little more context to those numbers, his splits right now are 57% from the field, 43% from behind the arc, 88% at the line. The vaunted 50, 40, 90 splits are right there, almost two steals. I'm new. Is that good? That is quite good.

Starting point is 00:23:53 And, you know, Austin is being put right now in a position to really not just showcase what he can be as a player, but also showcase his truest strengths, which is with the ball in his hands. And with the ball in his hands is often where players can look most tempting and appealing to other teams around the league from Sam's piece. While they'll be able to outbid the competition next July when Reeves' max offer from the Lakers would be five years and a combined $240 million, they need to see how he fits alongside Dodgers for a full season first. The money certainly shouldn't be a problem with new owner Mark Walter. he of the LA Dodgers free spending lure, having bought a majority stake of the team at a 10 billion valuation in June. Side note, we'll get to this at some point.

Starting point is 00:24:46 There are reports from Ramona Shelburne that the sale of the team to Mark Walter may be quicker than was originally reported moved up. So that obviously is a big deal. Moving back to Sam's piece, the Reeves dynamic has potential shades of what transpired with Donchich in Dallas when Jalen Brunson opted to leave the Mavericks for the New York Knicks. and the chance to have his own team in 2022, add in the fact that James could retire to any given moment, the prospect of Dantra's being left without an elite core around him is real. Then again, Reeves's desire to truly contend as well as his affinity for the Lakers' experience, as well known around the team. If they find a way to be elite, then perhaps that becomes an incentive to stay.

Starting point is 00:25:24 What's more, it should count for something that Lakers owner Jeannie Bus and president of basketball operations, Rob Belinka, have consistently resisted pressure to trade Reeves for a star player because of their belief in him. These are good problems to have for Reeves and early signs of a complicated offseason for the Lakers. For the time being, the way Austin is playing, it is good for the Lakers, full stop, no caveats because they need him to play this well.

Starting point is 00:25:51 They're trying to survive this theory without Luca, without LeBron, without Gabe Vincent, hopefully not much longer without Marcus Smart and Jackson Hayes, but there is no, yeah, bud. Let's not get too cute here. No, no. Austin playing this well is awesome. What I do think, though, is interesting about this because we've talked before about the idea of, you know, Austin 30 to 35 a year, something like that. That is really a no-brainer in today's NBA. You sign into that contract. 35 to 40 starts getting to become more of a conversation, but in all likelihood, the Lakers still sign him and you figure out the rest later, the rest being how to. you build a team around him and Luca in Apron World with their very similar strengths and weaknesses

Starting point is 00:26:41 and the cost of some of the players that would be required to offset those weaknesses. If, however, Austin plays at a level this year where 40 plus million annually becomes a live possibility and there are teams around the league with the cap space. to make those sorts of offers to Austin, then it becomes complicated for the Lakers, not even because you're debating whether or not you think Austin is worth that money in a vacuum. It's more, really, can you properly build around him and Luca

Starting point is 00:27:22 making a combined 100 plus million dollars? Well, I would say this. If you are, if the answer to that question is no, then the answer to that question is no, with any star player you're going to get and you're putting yourself in a position where you're saying we're going to build with Luca as our lone star and, you know, try to get a bunch of B B plus players, all of whom will cost you way more than you think they're going to cost anyway. So what I think is interesting about this is that the equation has always been,

Starting point is 00:27:57 AR is your third guy. And when LeBron leaves, they're going to go get a different guy. Now, you're paying 40 or 40, you know, if you're paying 40, you can give 40 million to your third guy, all that kind of stuff, because there's always going to be that other guy that they're bringing in. It's Janus. It's going to get Yokic. They're going to do whatever it might be, whatever fantasy that people throw around. The scenario here, and I think the most disappointing thing, one of the most disappointing things beyond,

Starting point is 00:28:25 I love watching Luca play, the Lakers need to win these games, all that kind of stuff. we're missing an opportunity to see a lot of Reeves and Luca together without LeBron and get a real feel for what that looks like. The dress rehearsal potentially for next year. Right. Because if Reeves plays like this and they're successful as a pairing, the equation changes. You can give Austin Reeves $45 million or $40 million or whatever it is, A, because if he sustains it throughout the season,

Starting point is 00:29:03 definitionally it means he looked good with Luca. It worked over the course of the year. Like, okay, it's a new blueprint. You are no longer looking for that other superstar and then deciding if Reeves, where are we going to pay him or not? Now it's Luca and Reeves, and then you figure out the other things

Starting point is 00:29:28 that we need to put around these guys defensive 3&D wings, stoppers, whatever it might be. Now, I am not saying that Austin Reeves has reached that point. They've played four games. There's a lot of season left here to see all that. But I'm just saying the scenario that Sam is talking about here,

Starting point is 00:29:49 I think if it comes to fruition where he plays at that level, we're talking about basically Austin Reeves, whether he makes an All-Star team or not, you look at what he's doing on the first. floor and go that guy is easily could be an all-star um if that happens it's a it changes the formula and so i think it's important to leave me at least to it's it's a context changer um and um then then i don't think it's a problem for the lakers at all in fact i actually think it simplifies things for the lakers because now they don't have to go get that other star to pair with luka you can go

Starting point is 00:30:28 much faster and try to just, you know your core now and build the team that way. I actually think it is extraordinarily convenient for the Lakers for a Reeves-Luca pairing to show itself as championship caliber. Again, long way from that, but I think it's helpful, not hurtful. Yeah, I mean, I agree with you, particularly because while I don't think Luke is, I mean, Austin is going to maintain 36, 7, 8. and a half, two steals, 57, 43, almost 90 splits. Well, that would basically mean Austin Reeves is winning MVP.

Starting point is 00:31:07 And respectfully to Austin, I don't think he's going to win MVP this year. Although if he does, he's definitely making an all-star team. Right. That's true. Another two, like the numbers he's got through four games, like he still might not automatically win just given like what Wembe is doing. Right. Some of the numbers that have been put up in the first week and a half have been insane.

Starting point is 00:31:26 But he will be firmly like in the MVP conversation. I would love to be wrong. I don't think Austin, I don't think, frankly, most players are able to maintain, maybe any, the players are able to maintain this level of production. What is interesting, though, about it, you are correct that it shows that the, if say he maintains very good numbers, if not these numbers, but very good numbers. Normal, regular all-star numbers.

Starting point is 00:31:57 Right. When Luca comes back, which, by the way, I think is a live possibility. What I think is interesting about that is it demonstrates that the two of them can produce alongside each other at a high level. But it still leaves open the question of the math and the cap mechanics of putting the right pieces around them again to offset what they don't. ring and the math equation and the money equation. But, and again, I, every day or no, I have had my questions about whether or not that can be done. But I don't have any real questions about whether or not the two of them actually can continue

Starting point is 00:32:44 to produce at a high level when they're both on the floor, because offensively, there are no reasons that they can't complement each other well. But I mean, the only alternative in that is if you can go find a star that, you know, has that 3 and D ability that is a better than like, and I realize that's the idea and that's the model. Good luck with finding one of those guys on the market who's good enough. The answer may be you commit to it because there is no better alternative and you see how this works. and if a plan B presents itself, figure it out from there. Again, offensively, you can do way worse

Starting point is 00:33:27 than Luke and Austin's foundation. If you don't have to fill in with a third star, because this pairing works and you'll see it win games. I wish we could see more games of it because I want LeBron to come back. But if it works and they win games as a pairing, it just opens up a lot of options. So we'll see what happens tonight, again,

Starting point is 00:33:50 Against the Timberwolves, Lakers, especially if smart and Hayes, can get back on the floor. Certainly have a puncher's chance or maybe better than that against an antless Minnesota team. We'll be back after the game. Locked on Lakers on YouTube is we're going to hang out with over 36,000 subscribers of the channel. See everyone later.

Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - Can the Lakers Still Win With Luka Out? Plus, Could Reaves Become too Expensive?

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