Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - How Do You Feel About Austin Reaves After the Playoffs? Ok With a Big Payday?

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Lakers have big decisions to make about Austin Reeves. Do you feel better about him now than you did when the playoffs started? That's next. You are Locked on Lakers. Your daily Los Angeles Lakers podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Thanks to everybody for stopping my Locked on Lakers, Brian Komenetsky, Andy Kaminowski, as we kick the offseason into higher gear.

Starting point is 00:00:32 One of the big overarching questions, obviously, that they will have to deal with is the future of Austin Reeves. Both sides, all the reporting stating that the Lakers want Austin back, that Austin wants to remain a Laker. But God is in the details, Andy, and the details here are almost surely going to be, what's the number on that contract per year? One of the big things that was potentially problematic, that was getting people, especially when Austin came back

Starting point is 00:01:02 and was really struggled against the rockets. Are you comfortable giving him big money for all the reasons that we've discussed on this show over the course of the playoffs and well before the playoffs began? The playoffs are over. The Lakers are out. Do you feel any better about Austin now than you did when the playoffs started? I feel basically the same about Austin as I did before the playoffs began. During the season, where we are now, I think the ever-dayers would know whether they agree with my assessment of Austin or not. My assessment's been pretty consistent over the last few years.

Starting point is 00:01:48 I think Austin is a very good player. I think he is the consensus around the league. If you look at different NBA pundant polling or when you hear execs talk about Austin anonymously, whatever. scouts. I think he's considered somewhere in a consensus top 75ish player. You can move the number a few spots in either direction. I'm not looking to debate it. I don't care what number you want to land on. That is more or less the tier. He was 60 in the ESPN rankings that came out before the season started and was somewhere similar. I think it's slightly higher in the like when the ringer did the same. Yeah. Point being, that makes you by definition a really good player.

Starting point is 00:02:41 That's what I think Austin is. I have had concerns and I still have concerns that the Lakers have, they view Austin internally and have increasingly slotted Austin, earmarked Austin, better than he actually is. And that's not a slight against Austin. That type of player, like the second best player on a contending level team, that's a really damn good player. I mean, like, if you look at most championship teams, the guy that were, or even teams that maybe didn't win a championship, but they made a lot of deep playoff runs, got to the finals, whatever,

Starting point is 00:03:18 the consensus second best player on those teams typically is a Hall of Fame. Or somebody that is at least in a Hall of Fame conversation. Respectfully to Austin, he's not on that track. not a slight against somebody to say that they are not on a Hall of Fame track. If it is, you are too sensitive. But the point being, do I think Austin can be a part of a team that is contending? Absolutely. Do I think he can be the second best player on a contending team or even like the technically

Starting point is 00:03:50 third best, but you feel like in a lot of ways he's their second? I'm not sold on it. And that's a really big deal for the Lakers moving forward. I think it depends on who. I'll tell you where I feel better. My answer is sort of. There are areas in which I think Austin actually did, despite, you know, up and down numbers, answer a lot of questions about his potential effectiveness as a playoff performer.

Starting point is 00:04:18 There are no, I think, doubts about his efficacy really as a regular season guy. Like that, you know, in terms of the 82 games that get you to the playoffs, assuming he's healthy, which is a whole separate question, Austin is going to be a very valuable and very consistent performer for you over the course of the regular season. And that is not for nothing. So I think that is obviously points in his favor, but those were points in his favor before.

Starting point is 00:04:48 When you sort of look under the hood at where Austin struggles in the playoffs, it kind of looks like the whole thing just collapses. It's actually not true. Even in this year's playoffs, and our friend at Stock Franco did a great breakdown of this on his substack, but it confirms sort of the eye test and some of the other numbers that have been around for Austin. Austin actually got into the paint and finished in the paint

Starting point is 00:05:20 at basically an elite level in the postseason. Like he still breaks down defenses and gets into the paint at an elite level. And that is one of the things. Like if Austin against the Thunder, for example, could not get into the paint. Just, you know, they were manhandling him to the point they could get there. Then I'd have a lot of concerns. But actually, that wasn't the issue. Where Austin has collapsed as a player,

Starting point is 00:05:53 offensive player, especially in the last two post seasons, is not in the pain. It's anywhere that isn't the pain. It's three point shooting, whether you're talking about contested three point shots or uncontested three point shots has collapsed for the last two seasons. And that's not good. But I also find it to be the thing that's sort of more, most likely to be kind of swing back and forth from year to year. So from an offensive

Starting point is 00:06:25 Why? Just because I think the variance You know, the variance in like, you know, hitting wide open three pointers is not something I think that's based on You know, like Austin can't hit a wide open three pointer in the playoffs. Like I don't I don't buy that as a reasoning for Why, you know,

Starting point is 00:06:45 the three point percentage is somehow related to the postseason, the quality of the defenses that he's faced. and all these other things. You know, when he misses a wide open three-pointer, that's not because the defense, you know, he's just had really, two really bad perimeter shooting postseason in a row. I mean, it could be because his body is breaking down some during the playoffs

Starting point is 00:07:08 because he's hurt a lot heading into the playoffs or during the playoffs. Possibly. It affects his legs. But I would also think that affects your ability to, you know, put the ball on floor and get into the paint. But he's better at getting into the paint than he has a, jump shooter anyway. I understand that, but there's a

Starting point is 00:07:26 long, there's a lot of middle ground in between a guy who shirts 37, 38, 39% in the regular season and 18% in the postseason. I think there's a happy medium in there somewhere where he's, even if he's low to mid 30s, which is lower than you want to be, it's better than 18. And it sure makes you a

Starting point is 00:07:44 very, you know, a very valuable offensive player in the postseason. But after the we'll talk next about, about the problem. So like I feel actually more comfortable about Austin offensively than I did coming into the playoffs. Because again, of where he was getting his shots and what he was able to do against two very good teams to get those shots. It doesn't answer all the questions, though, and I'll explain next.

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Starting point is 00:11:42 team's defensive attention was able to still get into the paint, do some good stuff there. Jump shot wasn't there against either team. I get that. And that ability to get into the paint, which we've seen across the playoffs, whether you're talking to Lakers, their opponents, whatever it is,

Starting point is 00:12:00 is essential in the post. You have to be able to do that. And so, because Luca and Austin, in any playoffers, the Lakers will really be able to attack in that way very effectively. Cool.

Starting point is 00:12:15 The part that is problematic and got no less problematic in the playoffs is defense. And what you do on that side of the ball, because when you add in Luca, it doesn't get

Starting point is 00:12:31 better. So the Lakers, it's not that they can't play good defense with Luca and Austin on the floor. They can. It's been demonstrated. But what what the combination does is forces the Lakers to fill in around them in more specific ways. Because you have to, like, you can't bring in, you know, another, you know, really good offensive player who lacks defensive chops.

Starting point is 00:13:02 And as like another sort of high-end starter or something like that, that just won't work. Like, you are more limited in, in what you can. The flip side is, if you have Austin and if you have Luca, you know exactly what you need. And so therefore, you can target the types of players that fill the holes that you have. So, you know, everybody knows what the problems are, but everybody knows what the problems are. So you can very surgically go try to solve them. But defense is definitely the part of this equation that you don't necessarily, at least I don't necessarily feel better about after the postseason.

Starting point is 00:13:44 What's going to be interesting about this and potentially complicating, A, by multiple accounts and reporting Luca really wants Austin back. Like, I think he wants LeBron back as well, but he really wants Austin. Yeah, because LeBron comes back. It's for another year. Austin is your sidekick for the next three or four. And they're also very close. Like, they enjoy playing together.

Starting point is 00:14:10 They enjoy being team. they enjoy being friends, like they enjoy being around each other. And it's just abundantly clear that is a teammate that Luca wants to keep, which to some degree in these negotiations gives Austin some leverage. And that's going to affect the number that they land on potentially. And just prepping because we hear from a lot of fans, the number will likely make a lot of you uncomfortable no matter where it is. It's going to make a lot of people uncomfortable.

Starting point is 00:14:40 well, you have to just start bracing yourself for that. The other piece of this, though, that I think is going to be complicated. You mentioned the idea of addressing the needs that I think are pretty well established for a team that would be foundationally built around Luca and Austin and attacking it surgically, which you would want to do, but I don't know if they're necessarily going to have in this metaphor all of the right medical instruments to do this surgically in a way that will work. because of the whether you're talking about cap restrictions, whether you're talking about available trade targets, whether you're talking about a free agency pool that is not particularly strong.

Starting point is 00:15:21 People often bring up the Luca in Dallas model, particularly the team that went to the finals as a template for how you can and should build around Luca. And I think there is certainly some proof of concept there. Like it really might be the best way to do it. And Austin theoretically fills the Kyrie Brunson slot, even if you think he's the worst of those three. From a prototype standpoint, Austin fits that. Problem, though, with trying to hit that model, or at least what makes it more complicated, is the model was possible in no small part because the MAVs absolutely knocked the Derek Jones Jr. Vet Minimum signing out of the park.

Starting point is 00:16:07 Like that is one of the best veterans minimum signings in like the last five to ten years. That was a big part of that success. That's not easy to replicate. They also had Derek Lively the second on a rookie scale deal as a center that they ultimately tanked the last few weeks of that season leading up to that draft in order to keep that pick. So you've got a young cost-controlled center who happened to be ready as a rookie to contribute. Not easy to replicate that part of it for the Lakers. They also traded for Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington Jr. Because they have these suitable contracts to make those sorts of moves.

Starting point is 00:16:45 Again, Lakers don't have that. So the template may be there, but the, as you said, like the surgically replicating it, I think will be more difficult for the Lakers. It does. And I think the other part of this that's important to remember is it doesn't get easier. If you let Austin go, it doesn't like, because you don't like the number, because, you know, you don't, you know, if you let him go, it doesn't get, it doesn't suddenly like, it's not like you get to pluck another player out of another team's organ, you know, another organization because you're like, you know, what, you fit better as our number two. And therefore we're, we're going to take you. You know, I always use, you know, would it be great to have Scotty Barnes as your running mate for Luca as opposed to, at least for the time being. it would be Austin as your number two.

Starting point is 00:17:36 By the way, it's worth noting that just because you slot in Austin as your number two now doesn't mean he is always going to be the second best player. There is no reason that in two years it might not be a different player to make a new big three. LeBron certainly be gone by then. It's like the slotting is not forever. But if you decide Austin's not quote unquote worth the money, somebody else is either going to you're going to have to give that money to somebody else or hold on to that money and be significantly worse as a team going into the year.

Starting point is 00:18:11 So those are kind of your choices. And I personally, unless you can find a trade where you're essentially trading into your cap space and replacing awesome. You can find a trade that you're trading into your cap space. But we discussed for all the reasons that we've discussed, it's going to be a challenge to do that because the Lakers don't have appealing contracts. They don't have lots of good young players that they can dangle out there. They've got some draft picks, but the draft picks are somewhat limited in value because they've got Luca and, you know, the mechony means to be able to.

Starting point is 00:18:52 Most teams will assume that these picks are going to be somewhere in the mid-20s, which mitigates their value. And so, you know, yeah, it'd be great to have a perfect running mate for Luca. Okay, that's not a choice. So what do you do when, you know, if your second choice is Austin Reeves, you know what? A player of Austin Reeves's caliber, a top 50-ish player is a 30 to 35 to $40 million player in this league. Tyler Hero makes $33 million, I think, next year, $31, 32. something like that, 33. I would rather have Austin Reeves and Tyler Hero.

Starting point is 00:19:34 You know, and... I agree. That doesn't necessarily, though, make me want to pay Austin that amount. It just means I'd rather pay Austin that than Tyler Hero. But the point is, if you want... People, what people seem to want is a player that's as good as Austin, who has got the skills, you know, a skill set that's a little bit more complimentary, is on the same level as Austin and does all this, but costs less.

Starting point is 00:20:01 Or they want to make available a more established star that they can somehow trade Austin for or do these things in ways that don't make any sense either. Like the Lakers have access to a player who is very high-end and almost impossible for them to replace. If you can do better, I am all on board the let's move on from Austin train. I am deeply skeptical that they can do better. And what they can't do next year is get worse.

Starting point is 00:20:36 You are correct that replacing that out, I'm not going to say it's impossible because there are better players in the league than Austin, but it will be difficult. I do think, though, what Laker fans are looking for isn't so much that player you were describing, but at less than the projected price of Austin, I think what they actually want is a player that if they're going to pay a lot of money or what they see as a lot of money, they want it to be someone that actually does certain things

Starting point is 00:21:06 that Luca doesn't do, that can actually strengthen those weeks. That's really what I was, right. But there's a distinct, no, you're right. I should have articulated that better. But, you know,

Starting point is 00:21:16 but that player probably costs more than Austin. And it's going to be harder to, require because they're more valuable. And, you know, they need a real 3 and D wing instead of Austin. Okay, how many of those are there? Who's available and how are you going to get them? So I just think we'll keep unpacking this stuff. But like this sort of sets the table for the big questions that you have to answer around Austin.

Starting point is 00:21:42 And, you know, looking and sort of the understanding that there are, you know, no magic bullet solutions out there. This is going to be kind of a combination, I think, cobbling together of, you know, imperfect solutions. But doing, you know, so piling up enough B-plus solutions here that you end up with a really good team. But Lockdown-Lakers on YouTube is where you can hang out with over 38,000 subscribers to the show. We will be back tomorrow with more from this week as we set up the all. offseason. We'll see you then.

Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - How Do You Feel About Austin Reaves After the Playoffs? Ok With a Big Payday?

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