Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - How Much Should the Lakers Pay for Free Agents (Including Their Own)?

Starting point is 00:00:00 How much should the Lakers pay for free agents? One Cap Guru gives his opinions. We'll tell you what he said next. You are Locked-on Lakers. Your daily Los Angeles Lakers podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Thanks, everybody for stopping by Locked on Lakers on a Friday afternoon, Brian Komenetsky, Andy Kaminetsky, talking contracts.

Starting point is 00:00:31 We'll try to open up the mailbag as well before we're done. here if not we'll we'll certainly do it next week please make sure you're leaving uh questions for us on twitter at cam brothers check out the youtube page uh that we are uh soliciting questions there and you can have them answered on the show um so bobby mark sandy from ESPN has started you know kind of diving into the uh free agent pool talking about who's available and more importantly what he thinks each of these guys ought to cost um one of the interesting things about the offseason for the Lakers is that arguably the two best free agents, once Austin Reeves does what everybody expects him to do and declines his player option.

Starting point is 00:01:19 Arguably, the two best unrestricted free agents will be Lakers in LeBron James and Austin Reeves. That's not ideal because you want to be adding to your team, not spending money to keep your own guys. But that said, the number that these guys potentially get, the number that Rui Hachamura gets, the number that other unrestricted free agents, Lakers might be interested in, the number they get obviously is of critical importance to the Lakers, given their restrictions. Yeah, and the Lakers are also in a position where just because Austin and LeBron may be the two

Starting point is 00:01:59 best free agents available on the market doesn't necessarily mean that with their particular setup and goals. And the idea, I certainly think they should be looking to try to future forward to build and to try to put themselves as much as possible in a position where you are creating a core and the type of culture that we've talked about. And the complications of LeBron's age, even acknowledging how well he played compared to most of the other free agents out there, it offers a wrinkle that I think the Lakers are actively trying to figure out how to balance. So all of this is really tricky. And that's before you even get into the idea of what it would take to bring back Rui, you know, how you would say gauge Luke Kinnard versus free agent X on the market.

Starting point is 00:02:52 There are a lot of questions out there for a team that may have a certain amount of flexibility. But they're also lacking a certain foundation. And that makes in some ways the flexibility almost amorphous because you're not dealing with as much of a starting point, like a firm starting point beyond Luca as would be ideal. Well, it's also, too, you have to sort of choose. Like, well, they hope they don't have to. But practically speaking, you are. are, it's very possible.

Starting point is 00:03:33 The Lakers are going to have to choose between what you talked about, that sort of what is the sort of most future forward thing that we can put together, that, you know, maybe it pays some real dividends over the course of two or three or four years or based on the trajectory that we're, where the guys were signing and what we acquire and all these other things versus the imperative to leverage Lucas Prime. and to do it quickly and to make sure that, you know, he's quite pleased with what you're doing because he does have the capacity in the next couple of seasons to, you know, opt out of his deal and look somewhere else.

Starting point is 00:04:11 So those things could very well be across purposes. And that's really the crux of the LeBron thing, because unless you can line up some sort of trade, you are the paths to improving your team and letting for next year, not long term, not whatever, but your path to improving your team for next year is narrow or narrower, at the very least, if you let LeBron go because you're, you know, it's again, 21, 7 and 7 out the door. And by the way, it was a bad,

Starting point is 00:04:49 it was really better than that over the second. half the season after he got past the sciatica and all that kind of stuff and and so on. So Bobby Marks starts off the number of the best unrestricted free agent in the NBA this offseason is LeBron James in his rankings

Starting point is 00:05:05 and LeBron's going to be at the top of all of these. He is, I think, I can't think of a better unrestricted guy than him. Depends on how you're defining better. But in terms of just pure production, any other context, he might be the best.

Starting point is 00:05:24 Well, I mean, is he a better player than Norman Powell? Yes. Is he a better player than C.J. McCollum? Yes. But that's not what I mean. No, I understand. You said if you're taking out all of those other things, it was judging today who is the better player.

Starting point is 00:05:39 Yes. The answer is LeBron James. And so, you know, that part of it, like what you pay him is going to be really critical. starts this thing off for the Lakers, basically at the deal, he has a thing, what he would offer,

Starting point is 00:05:58 the deal I'd offer is $30 million. I actually think the Lakers might be able to do it for less than that. I would hope the Lakers could do it for a little less than that. I think they have to do it. Unless they're running with some type of goal of basically running it back and hoping that a,

Starting point is 00:06:21 less injured version of the group they had last year can perform more consistently like they did that one month in March. I think it is very difficult to pay LeBron 30 mil and have a goal that isn't essentially more or less running it back. Here's how you're just going to get stuck from a math standpoint. Very possibly. Here's how Bobby Marks puts it. Would James compromise and return to L.A., a $30 million salary would allow, he says like he can't make $50 million, Lakers can't pay him $50 million and bring Austin back and do it, but you can't do it. And try to make your roster better. Can't do it. A $30 million salary,

Starting point is 00:07:01 Mark says, would allow the Lakers to re-sign Luke Kinnard and Rui, Hachamura, and use the full $15 million non-tax mid-level exception. The Lakers could also act as a cap space team, but without Hachamor and Kinnard basically letting those guys go. They would then have $20 million in room, plus $9.4 million room exception if they let those other guys go and kept LeBron at $30 million. So either way, but obviously, Andy, if you let Rui and Luke Kinnard go, some of the money that you go, look at all this cap space we open up. Some of the money is going to go to replacing those two guys. So from a practical standpoint, $30 million for LeBron means you can kind of bring back those

Starting point is 00:07:46 other guys. You can re-sign Austin to more or less the contract is doing Bobby Marx's math. And you'd have essentially $15 million to use an exceptions, which will get you probably a good player. Like you said, I agree with you. I think if you could find a way to do this for less, because the only team that's going to be able to pay him $30 million is the Lakers. I can't see another team opening up space to be able to give that to him. Not without finagling to a point where LeBron would start wondering, why would I join that team? They shed too many of their players that matter.

Starting point is 00:08:22 Right. I mean, the nuggets are somewhere he could go. The warriors, the calves. I mean, Bobby Marks actually puts the Spurs as a team that's a good fit for LeBron. I have not looked into their cap situation. The idea that the Spurs, though, given their trajectory, would drop LeBron into that roster, seems to me to be a bizarre choice at best.

Starting point is 00:08:48 I would not do that if I were done. No. LeBron is a difficult guy to just drop into your ecosystem. And I'm not even saying, I was about to say ego, like on LeBron's part, like that it's, you know, LeBron's ego becomes a problem. That's not even when I'm getting it. I'm just saying his presence and all of the attention that comes with it and the type of accommodations that come, not even just because of his stature, but because of his age and all

Starting point is 00:09:17 that of stuff. It's, it is a strange fit. And especially, and it's also the transient nature of it for a team that may very well win a championship this season. It just doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Next, though, let's talk about some of the number, like how the, the sort of the mechanics of it, whether or not, you know, sort of where you feel comfortable with Iran, but also, too, like what he's recommending for somebody like Rui Hachamor. We'll get to it next. Locked on Lakers is brought to you by game time. And the playoffs, they are in full swing, the intensity, the crowd, the rivalries.

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Starting point is 00:13:08 I think most people are expecting Norman Powell to stay. in Miami, for example. C.J. McCollum, given how the Hawks ended the season and how well he played there, I think is expected to stay in Atlanta. Kobe White, expected to stay in Charlotte. Ia Dissumu, expected to stay in Minnesota. So some of these guys, there's a limit, you know, especially since only the, you know, there aren't that many teams with a ton of cap space.

Starting point is 00:13:38 So you get down to the sixth best free, unrestricted free agent. And Bobby Marks has Rui there. And his deal that he would offer Rui is the equivalent to the non-tax mid-level exception that we mentioned earlier in the show, a little over 15 million years. So four years, 64 million for Rui. Done. Done. Like particularly if you can get that.

Starting point is 00:14:08 done quickly, which would mean Rui not really going into free agency, but if you get the thing done quickly and you remove Rui's higher capital number, like for however long they... Yeah, we'd drop it down for I think Rui's around $27 million. And then you go on the books for you for about 14 or 15 and a half. Yeah. So for however, like, for however long they had intended to go without renouncing it, you know, depending on their plans, were they planning on, you know, keeping. Rui and going over the cap and the process.

Starting point is 00:14:40 There are different ways that you can finagle this and massage the numbers. But bottom line, you lose that cap hold. And that is a really reasonable number for Rui. It is also a very tradable contract if needed down the road. And that's something the Lakers have lacked a lot over the last few years. I mean, it's something that frankly will get in their way if they want to try to be active this offseason with trades. like, yes, they can trade into their own cap space, but if they need to start offering things to the other team, other than a lot of ways, cap relief, they're low.

Starting point is 00:15:17 Sometimes you want to have a tradable contract that's attached to a player people like. Right. So 4 and 64 for Ruy done. I don't even have to think about that. I agree with you. And it's almost such a reasonable number that you wonder if, it's high enough. I didn't say it was realistic.

Starting point is 00:15:40 I just said I'd do it. Well, no, but I'm not saying it's not. I always bleed confidence. It's on the low side. It is on the low side. He feels on the low side. But I'm always on, here's why I am, I always bleed confidence in, in, at this time of year in terms of trying to anticipate these things.

Starting point is 00:15:58 It's just because it, while it feels low to me, like when you start stacking up who the free agents are. when you then factor in, well, who's got space? Okay, not that many teams. There are some lesser teams that could do it. That could, you know, throw a little bit more money at somebody like Rui. But the flip side is, like, not so much would Rui take it because he might. But, like, would he's going to be 29 next year?

Starting point is 00:16:29 Like, is he kind of in that sweet spot for a rebuilding team? Is he, you know, he's got a very well. well-established skill set. I think at this point, based on his Lakers career, Rui is a very reliable three-point shooter, and he's a very reliable playoff three-point shooter. The mid-range game is useful, all that other kind of stuff. His deficiencies are well-known.

Starting point is 00:16:56 His pluses are very well-known. But he is pretty much, I think this many years in a row, you can say he's kind of a top-tier three-point. shooter and, you know, one of the only guys who's available, certainly at his position. So, you know, the premium for him could be that just because they're scarcity. So I wonder if he would take that, I would extend him. I would do that now. Well, maybe there's something.

Starting point is 00:17:27 Maybe there's something I'm missing about the mechanics of ordering these things and they'd be hamstringing themselves or something. But at the very least, I'd be like, handshake agreement. like you'll take it we'll give it to you no i my read is exactly the same as yours if you could extend into that number now i would do that now just because it's one fewer thing you have to figure out as you go into free agency for what it is worth a lot of bobby marks is you know the contract i would offer and for those who are unaware bobby marks is a former uh franchise exec he was with the next like he used to do this sort of thing um most of his numbers and maybe because in particular he was a part of the Prokeroff Nets that were kind of a mess and got burned

Starting point is 00:18:14 with some higher some very high contracts. Perhaps this would influence why I think most of his offers were on the or we're on the low side of what I think a player would deem acceptable. Well, yeah, it was consistent. It is. But let me ask you this, because this is the part that I think is tricky and, you know, what I was going to get to as well. and I meandered off and it's Friday, you know.

Starting point is 00:18:40 I think one of the things that's getting factored in here, the trend line for players who aren't stars, the salaries are going down. Nobody needs to pass a hat for players, but I do feel like contracts that six, seven, eight years ago might have been, you know, the equivalent in today's money in today's cap of, you know, $18 million a year are going to be 40, I'm sorry, like, you know, 14 or 13. You know, I think teams are going to be more cautious.

Starting point is 00:19:17 There will be a couple guys on this list who get a bag that's a little bit bigger. But like, you know, somebody like Kelly Ubre, who I think would be an interesting fit with the Lakers as a bench score. And it sort of is settled into a guy, you know, sort of a quietly decent player. at what he does. Again, kind of like really much better defender. Yeah, much better. Just just better player, you know, can score a little bit, good bench score can do that kind of stuff. He's probably been undervalued over the last few seasons. He likely won't get to everybody on Bobby Marks's list today and we'll carry it over to next week. Ubre was on my list of guys that I find interesting. Yeah. And I mention him not specifically

Starting point is 00:20:01 because, you know, tied to Lakers, but the number he puts out for for Ubre's three. in 40. So that would be about 13 million a year, getting close again to most of a team's tax exception. So like, you know, that kind of player, like, who would I rather, would I rather have him or would I rather have Rui? I'd rather have Rui. That, but that I, those things are kind of, that's, if you let Rui go, you're going to, that's kind of gets to my, point like you could very well spend something in that neighborhood to bring back a player who is not necessarily quite as good as the one you just gave up but i don't know if ubrae will make that or not i don't know if robert williams is another player it's going to be on our our radar all summer just

Starting point is 00:20:54 because the the need at center projected it the same contract basically three and 42 um like he might make less because he's never healthy he can't I don't think there's a universe in which he plays more than 50 games in a season, even if he's not officially hurt. I feel like salaries are being pushed down, but I don't know for whom. I think that's the tricky part for me. When you were talking before about the numbers and the way that if you're a non-star player, maybe a non-superstar player, it could be impacted going downward.

Starting point is 00:21:28 It leads to Bobby Marks and Austin Reeves. And the number that he put out for Austin that he would offer is four years 155. And the first year would be 41.2 and it descends. It would be a 38.75 AAV. And in thinking about that, the way I would put it is, do I think nearly 39 mil AAV is outrageous for Austin, given the comparable market and the Lakers likely inability to properly replace his production if he walked, like just flat out walked even with their cap space? No, I don't think it's outrageous.

Starting point is 00:22:15 Am I comfortable with that number? No, I am not comfortable with that number. And when people will make comps to others around the league making roughly that same number, you're like, do you think Austin is better than this guy? Do you think Austin is better than this guy? My answer is often yes, but I don't like that guy's contract either. Like I wouldn't want to pay him what he's currently making either. Like a guy like Jalen Green, for example, on the Sons, he's making around 35 a year.

Starting point is 00:22:49 Do I think Austin is better than Jalen Green? Yeah, I do. But I wouldn't want to pay Jalen Green 35 mil either. Like the problem to me isn't that I feel like Austin is worth close to 40 mil a season because of what Jalen Green makes. I just think Jalen Green, I wouldn't be comfortable with that contract either. So Austin is slated to be in a particular zone of contract

Starting point is 00:23:13 that there is a chance he could end up paying it off and then some. But it's going to create nervous time when he signs it, or at least for me. The descending number thing, I think, is an interesting way for the Lakers to, approach this question that you're talking about. But we, I think next week when we, you know, we'll take Memorial Day off on Monday,

Starting point is 00:23:39 but next week when we come back, we can get deeper into the restricted free agents, the player option guys, and look at what it might take for teams to maybe pry away a Peyton Watson, a Jalen Duren, whatever it might be. So plenty to look forward to as we start to fire up the basketball, basketball version of the hot stove.

Starting point is 00:24:02 I don't know what they call it. It's not the hot stove. That's baseball. But yeah, so enjoy your weekend. We'll take Monday off. Locked on Liquors on YouTube is where you can go hang out with over 38,000 subscribers. Check out the show notes. See if the everyday air club is for you. And everybody have a great holiday. We'll see you on Tuesday.

Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - How Much Should the Lakers Pay for Free Agents (Including Their Own)?

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