Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - How the NBA's New Lottery and Anti-Tanking Rules Impact the Lakers

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Lakers aren't a tanking team, but we'll tell you why the new lottery rules still make a big difference for them as well. Next. You are Locked-on Lakers. Your daily Los Angeles Lakers podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Thanks to everybody for joining Locked on Lakers today. Brian Komenetsky, Andy Kaminetsky, will try to touch on a few things around free agency over the course of today's show. Andy, but first, big news around the NBA because on Thursday morning, the league released its new plans for lottery reform to try to discourage tanking. To say the least, Andy, a lot of new

Starting point is 00:00:50 stuff going on in this new system. A lot of new stuff. Some might say a lot of convoluted stuff, or at least by some, I mean, I might say a lot of things. It's a convalued. alluded. I think it will ultimately do some of what the league is looking for. I'm not sure it's going to accomplish everything. It is known as the 3-2-1 lottery. Nut shell version of a lot of this. They're flattening the odds and there's draft relegation reading from the NBA communications. Each team participating in the draft lottery will receive three to one lottery ball for the drawing teams do not qualify for the NBA playoffs or play in tournament, receive three lottery balls each, except that to provide an increase incentive to win, the team with the three

Starting point is 00:01:44 worst records will be draft relegated and lose one of their lottery balls. The number nine and 10 playin seeds in each conference will receive two lottery balls each, while the losers of the seven versus eight in each conference will get one lottery ball. There's pick floors, there's restrictions in terms of where teams can pick in consecutive drafts. No teams. Picks will be permitted in the first pick in two consecutive NBA drafts or top five in three consecutive drafts. Pick protections, and this is one I definitely want to hit on, teams will be unable to attach top 12 through top 15 protections to newly traded draft picks. There's also some controversy about stuff not being grandfathered in in terms of previous trades that in particular is going

Starting point is 00:02:37 to affect the Memphis Grizzlies. But these are all efforts to try to curb tanking, to try to de-incentivize teams from having reasons to lose games. I think, again, some of what they are looking to accomplish may happen. I do not think all of it will. I think there's some half measures going on. And I think there's going to be some unintended consequences along the way. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:03:04 I mean, I think anytime you change systems and anything, you're going to find there are always unintended consequences. And that part of it, I'm sure. I can scrap all this and redo it in 2030. That's part of the provision. It all, it sunsets in 29 just because that's when the new CBA expires. I think the league is hoping that they'll, they'll be able to maybe make some tweaks, but broadly extend what they're doing because you obviously don't want to make sweeping upheavals to the the draft and lottery system and then turn around have to do again in three seasons. But there are logistical reasons why they probably just sort of needed to sunset this at the same time as a CBA.

Starting point is 00:03:50 That makes some sense. It's also a really natural time to make any changes and kind of revisit it and all that. I think, you know, again, I can't even, I'm not, I'm not smart enough to guess all of the unintended consequences of what they're going to be. There are a lot of predictions going on about what it'll be. And we'll get to sort of how I think this impacts the Lakers. But I will say this. The biggest thing that the league is trying to fix is first and foremost, teams losing on purpose. like taking the last, especially in a year like this,

Starting point is 00:04:30 where the top of the draft lottery is considered really good. And you're going to see a lot of seasons like this now where, you know, because players can stay to, you know, a couple of years in college and, you know, all that kind of stuff because,

Starting point is 00:04:44 you know, they're making plenty of money there. There's, you know, the depth in the college game could kind of beef up again. You're going to get some seasons like you have now. Utah full. folded up the tents in like January.

Starting point is 00:04:59 The Wizards lost like 26 of their final 27. All these teams are losing purposefully. And I think what they are trying to do is make it so you have fewer situations where like the jazz when they're winning a game in the fourth quarter don't put their starters back in because the starters might win. that's the kind of thing they're trying to prevent. And I think a lot of these rules will address that. I think they will address it.

Starting point is 00:05:31 I don't think they address it all the way. And also, I think, full disclosure, I don't think tanking is nearly as big of a deal as it's made out to be. I also think this particular season was a tanking outlier. And not just because this draft class is considered so great, It's because a lot of these teams, including you mentioned the Wizards and Jazz, had protected picks. And while they obviously would like to race all the way to the bottom if they can, because

Starting point is 00:06:05 if you can get the number one overall pick, awesome, first and foremost, these teams were tanking because they wanted to keep their pick regardless of where it lands. The Jazz more than Wizards, but I take your point. And the Pacers, for example, the trade that. they made for a vizza zoo bots. They were trying to have their cake and eat it too, where they get a vizizzoobots, but also as the Indiana Pacers, i.e. a team that does not get free agents, they were trying to keep their very strangely protected pick where if it was like one through four, they kept it five through nine, they lose it, ten and below. Something bizarre like that. Again, first and

Starting point is 00:06:49 foremost, these teams want to keep their picks, particularly small market teams because they often have far fewer options for building a team beyond the draft because free agents never go there. High-end players never demand a trade to the jazz or to the Pacers or to the Grizzlies. That doesn't happen. Like Deere and Fox wanting to go to the Spurs last year, that is way exception that proves the rule. No question. I will say this. Beyond, I think this is going to affect some of the smaller market teams who are already

Starting point is 00:07:26 hamstrung as it is. And I think in general, the league, for reasons I do not understand, is making it harder and harder to build good teams with sustainability, which is what I think, honestly, fans want. Like, I think Adam Silver loves him some parody. I don't think it's really what a lot of fans want, and certainly ain't what they what draws in the casuals at all. But the big thing, though, that I will say,

Starting point is 00:07:55 because this has been a big talking point in mind that I'll cede the floor back to you, I have been making this point for a long time. If the league really wants to do something about tanking, get rid of protected picks altogether. You either trade your pick or you keep your pick. You don't get to have your cake and eat it too. But the reason this bothers me in particular is these,

Starting point is 00:08:19 you can't protect it 12 through 15 what the FBS. That's the league doing a half measure. That's them. I agree. That's not my favorite part of the plan. But the reason, though, and this is what bothers me, the reason I think they won't go all the way with this is because they're afraid it's going to eliminate trades.

Starting point is 00:08:41 And they want the buzz from the trades. Again, half measures. Well, they're trying to, this is. This is a very Adam Silver thing where he's trying to make everybody 60% happy. Sometimes you have to do something that you don't like in order to serve the greater good. If it's this big of a problem that it requires this drastic of a reform, why are you leaving something out there that will still incentivize losing because again, teams will want to keep their pick?

Starting point is 00:09:14 Teams will want to keep their picks, but I think they'll, I mean, I think the idea here is that you don't want to completely eliminate the potential for teams to to trade their picks. You want to have some, keep some flexibility and incentives to build trades that can be attractive enough that you get player movement, that you can have, you know, teams can make trades,

Starting point is 00:09:36 they can do that kind of stuff because, you know, you also don't want a system if you're a small market team where the only way to sign guys is through free agency. Like, you know, to acquire players is through free agency. You want to be able to acquire players through a free agency. You want to be able to acquire players through a small team. trade and to do that you you know some some level of protect you know picks are need to be done

Starting point is 00:09:54 you might see teams negotiate harder about protections and things like that but i mean i'll say this like utah had strong incentives i agree with you to um to to to lose to keep that pick but i'll explain next why i'm not i i don't i think that is a sort of byproduct of of the larger question here. And obviously we'll get into how these things impact the Lakers as well. We'll do all next. But first, we need to tell you that locked on Lakers is brought to you by Indeed,

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Starting point is 00:12:46 from those mentioned. For more information, see Calshey.com. slash regulatory. So, and we'll get to some thoughts from Tim Bontemps at ESPN about the free agent marking, including what some scouts around the league think guys like Austin Reeves are going to pay and where important free agents, important to the Lakers, important to their current teams, are going to end up before the summer's out. So we'll try to get to that before the end of the show.

Starting point is 00:13:18 But just to continue the conversation we're having, the issue, you know, you're use the jazz for an example. The complication with the jazz was two-fold. First of all, they are probably, if everybody's playing, too talented to be as bad as they needed to be. I agree with that. And it's unusual for a team that is constructed like that to suddenly decide, like, you know what, we got to really, and that is the pick protection. In a different year, though, they still would, I think, behaved in basically the same way. They just had had an easier time to get into to tank as much as they were because, you know, maybe fewer teams are doing it or whatever might be.

Starting point is 00:13:59 But I think the basic behavior, once it was clear, they probably weren't going to make the play in, wasn't going to change that much. And what you had this year, maybe it's the most exaggerated version of it because so many teams were trying to tank. And there were an unusual amount of protected picks involving those teams. Like, I just think that can't be overstated.

Starting point is 00:14:24 I agree with you that it's, it's an issue. When you have that, when you have to make sure you're protected to seven or six or five or whatever might be, yeah, you got to really, you know, go hard or go home here. But the, the basic incentives are what the NBA says they are and, you know, currently. It won't be anymore. And so pick protections only kind of heighten the situation that's already there. And I mean, I think the bigger issue that the league is going to face is it's going to be harder for bad teams to get good. But the issue from, and this is where it affects the Lakers, the competitive balance of the league, beyond the TV product, which gets to be a problem and beyond, you know, the, you know, you look at the standings in any given night or the scoreboard or in any given night, like half the teams are not trying to win. And it's not not trying to win in late April.

Starting point is 00:15:22 It's not trying to win in February. It really does have a bad competitive impact on the competitive balance around the league. Like the Lakers and, you know, 6, 7, 8 other teams fighting in the Western Conference finish as high as they possibly can. So many of these things are going to be determined by did you play the Wizards at the beginning of the season or did you play them at the end? Did you play? You can't have that. And so I think, you know, I, I think the league for too long misdiagnosed things like load management.

Starting point is 00:15:55 They've gotten that wrong. You know, they started on that one. I know, I know. But what I like about these rules is like, this isn't really that. This is just we're taking away the incentives for you to not play your best players.

Starting point is 00:16:09 And actually adding incentives, you know, if you're not very good to play, to try to figure out a way to win games. And I think ultimately, that's going to result in fewer teams trying to lose because the incentive isn't there for them to do it. Right now it is.

Starting point is 00:16:32 You are the right way to play the game is to try to raise your lottery odds. But you take that away, and I think you'll see more competitive games next year, which is the only fair way to do it. Yeah, I mean, I'll be honest. I tend to think people overrate the race to the race to the, the bottom in terms of like everyone obviously again you want the number one overall pick if you can

Starting point is 00:16:55 get it but I think in general it's about either keeping your pick or just giving yourself the best potential odds like that's exactly what they're doing they are maximizing their odds and they're losing 25 of 26 games 28 of 30 all these things to try to do it I get that and again I think I think this particular year was an extreme year. I understand the urge to try to curb this stuff, because I agree, it's not good for the league. I also think, though, that it's not good for the league if several of your teams, by virtue of location, are stuck having to try to game the system because that's their survival mechanism. And it's one of the ugly truths that the league doesn't want to confront that nobody wants to play Milwaukee unless they have to.

Starting point is 00:17:48 Like nobody goes to some of these teams unless they are essentially sent there through the draft or I guess by a trade. And it's something that I feel like the league kind of jams its head in the sand over. And again, at a time where it feels like they're just making it more difficult to build teams with sustainability and at a time where and they got, you know, they got, you know, they out lucky in their timing, the Thunder and the Spurs have built these teams out that could be good for a while, which is something the league should want because it can be harder for teams like that to be good. And it builds the health to me. Right. But what's the alternative, though? But what's the alternative? There is none.

Starting point is 00:18:33 Honestly. You have to choose between incentivizing, losing, or making it a little bit harder for teams to build through the draft. Because if you look at it, I mean, the other thing that they're doing is with the rules that we haven't mentioned to prevent teams from drafting three times in a row in the top five to, you know, and some of these other things

Starting point is 00:18:56 is to some degree remove a little bit of luck from the system to make it a little bit more equitable to where teams keep trying to lose and lose and don't win the lottery. Like the jazz are a great example of this. Like, you know, there are a few, teams like that that have just tried and tried and tried because you you know basketball is a sport where access to that kind of talent is just disproportionately important compared to others

Starting point is 00:19:23 you know it's it's you know if you get wemby it's you've you're just you're set but the spurs didn't just get wemby they got wemby and dylan harper right and stephen castle and so you know there there i think what the league is trying to do is in some ways make it a little bit more equitable. It's never going to be completely fair. But you're right. You can't, you can't make it completely easy for, you know, the best, you know, if you really want to make it so like great teams have access, bad teams have access to the best players, then you get rid of the lottery system entirely. And you just, but then you're going to see teams really tanking in a, especially in a year like this. Again, I would rather the league create structures.

Starting point is 00:20:11 that incentivize winning, or at the very least, don't incentivize losing and make teams figure it out. Because look, you're right. From a destination standpoint, I just don't think the, I don't think the league is entirely honest. But 20 of the teams in the league are not going to be destination spots. And they know that. And they're going to have to figure it out through the draft or trades. And their small market teams have always needed to be a little bit better run and all of these other things. all true.

Starting point is 00:20:43 But the owners of those teams aren't complaining because these franchises are worth hundreds of millions of dollars and all that stuff. And nobody who has like sort of a financial stake in these things is complaining about, you know, their inability to have a product that is going to make them money. So, you know, they know what they're getting when they buy this thing. Obviously, just so it is clear, there is not a single owner in this league that I even sort of feel sorry for with blank.

Starting point is 00:21:19 To your point, you know what you're doing when you buy one of these teams. If you buy one of these teams in a smaller market, you realize that you're up against it to some degree. Like I said, I just don't think the league is, it doesn't seem to me entirely honest with itself about why a lot of this takes place. Also, what I think they, I think they know exactly why it takes place. They just can't, it just, it's, it can't be in especially now with the, but like, let me finish it real quick, but like, you know, part of the reason the incentives are stronger to lose and all that stuff is because the new CBA, you know, it makes it a little bit more

Starting point is 00:22:02 challenging to do stuff or whatever. the importance of high picks is higher now, I think, under the new CBA, which I think you're eventually going to stop seeing picks moving quite as much and protections and all these other things. These things are really much more critical than they used to be. And so the incentive structure to tank is actually stronger now with the new system than it was under the old one. So I think you can argue that this year was an aberration, but it was also an aberration compared to systems that no longer exist.

Starting point is 00:22:38 Compared to itself, I actually think this was going to be much more the norm. We'll see. I mean, one of the things that struck me as ironic is, you know, a team like the Brooklyn Nets, depending on how many times they had been in the top five, you know, this current group that I think is trying to rebuild from the ground up the right way. I realize they're in New York, but they're the little sister team. and, you know, they have had their issues getting going, but they're starting a ground-up rebuild,

Starting point is 00:23:10 and a ground-up rebuild needs to be bad for a while. They would have their odds flattened in somewhere, find themselves punished, potentially in a season where, say you take a team like the 2022 Lakers that were bad, that was the first season of Russ, because Polinka and LeBron and AD collectively lost their effin minds, they actually in some ways would benefit through these new rules for making a really bad decision more than, say, a team like the Nets, they actually end up sometimes penalized for doing things

Starting point is 00:23:52 the right way, or at least how I would define it as the right way. Yes and no. And I'll explain, but there's one other thing in that that I think you're, I'm, I don't want to say you're missing the point, but I think is what the NBA is trying to encourage. We'll get to it next. Locked on Lakers is brought to you by DoorDash. The postseason is in full swing.

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Starting point is 00:25:36 If you check it out, find out if it's for you. But the advantage there, Andy, if you join the Everyday Air Club, you get the show ad-free, which we know is a big deal for a lot of people, just change the experience that way. Plus, you get access to the Discord channels, not just for Lockdown-Lakers. We can talk to other Lockdown-Lakers fans, but also across the entire NBA channel. So Lockdownlakers.com, check out the Everyday Air Club, see if it's for you. The NBA is not, I think, able to legislate out being bad. And you're right.

Starting point is 00:26:10 Teams like the Nets are, I think, I agree with you. They're trying. They're sort of trying to acquire young players and they're, you know, they had like 17 picks last year and they used them all and all, you know, they're, okay. Every team's going to have league that's going to be, have teams that are bad. And you're going to have to figure out different ways to try to improve your squad. There's no chance.

Starting point is 00:26:32 There's a bit, you know, they're going to have years, where it just seems unfair. But what they don't want you to do is to be bad by losing on purpose. Sure. And the Nets lost games last year on purpose. Stop that. You know, and the league will have to kind of really keep an eye on,

Starting point is 00:26:50 you know what? Bad teams need to play young players. They need to give players who aren't as good time on the floor to develop, make mistakes and stuff like that. That's not tanking. But tanking is when you just hold out your players who are good and prevent them from playing. or you don't put them back in a game.

Starting point is 00:27:06 Like, you just, that's, that's it. That's what they're trying to fix. No, again, I get what they are trying to do. And there are elements of this that I understand. And I think if you want it, you can make an argument that the draft system in general was just in need of reform. I just feel like there are inherent issues to a 30 team league where, where we're really being honest, about 10 of those teams, at least, are in places where players, it's not typically their first, second, third, maybe even fourth choice.

Starting point is 00:27:44 It's baseball. It's just like baseball. And that makes it, I think, much more difficult for those teams to improve the overall health of the league by being good if you cut off this ugly, but in a lot of ways, necessary way of trying to work, work within your own parameters to try to be good again. That's it. I don't, I just the only thing I would say there is I don't think it cuts it off. I think it just changes it.

Starting point is 00:28:14 But one thing we didn't get into, and we'll see how it goes. I agree with you. It's going to be a couple years of this. We'll be like, ooh, I didn't see that coming. And then we'll see what happens in three years when they can go back and try this whole setup again. One thing we didn't get into, and it's interesting, well, maybe we'll save some of the the Reeves' talk.

Starting point is 00:28:33 But the Lakers, like a few teams around the league that have experienced changes in ownership, had a big series of layoffs earlier in the week where I think I've seen a couple different figures, but somewhere, you know, like 10 to 15, sort of the range of people that I've seen

Starting point is 00:28:50 in non-basketball departments were going, have been, um, we're laid off, you know, sort of organizational changes. And I know that has gotten a lot of people's attention just because we're in a time right now where anything that looks like the Lakers aren't building up, their kind of operation

Starting point is 00:29:19 is going to be seen with some skepticism. It's not what's going on here. But I mean, I just, I think that's part of the reason it got a lot of attention other than it just sucks when people lose their jobs. But like this isn't them, this isn't like what they did in Portland. It's, you know, where it seems like cost cutting. And it does. There's a lot of consolidation going on and stuff like that. Exactly what's happening. Yeah. This is not uncommon when there are mergers, you know, of sorts or companies that have common players involved, common execs involved, the Dodgers and Lakers that we've talked about, you know, and Robbins, Polinka's words, the brother and sister organization, and with Mark Walter, the central figure

Starting point is 00:30:07 in both organizations, but a guy like Lon Rosen, who's now running the business ops for the Lakers, and there are other names that are going to be involved with both places. I think it's going to be interesting to see how many people truly wear two hats, like in terms of Dodger and Laker hats, just because I do think that too much. of that depending on what the actual jobs entail. I do have some concerns about people being stretched thin. But overall, I do agree with you. I don't think this is not Tom Dundon, the new owner in Portland part due. I have zero concerns about that. I think at the end of the day, I think there's going to be enough people working in both places or, you know, the team we're talking about the Lakers.

Starting point is 00:31:00 They're hearing some people talk about this that know the inner workings of the organization. You know, we know it reasonably well, but these are people who've been in it, like literally in the organization. It sounds like there's going to be some departments eliminated or redundancies cut down, things like that. I have zero concerns about this is the beginning of a richer mom and pop style ownership. I would be frankly stunned if that happened. And none of it's the kind of thing other than to the degree that how much money you earn off the floor in this case impacts maybe some of the other stuff that you do. None of us is going to impact the basketball operation.

Starting point is 00:31:48 It's the person who does marketing deals. under this umbrella can sell marketing deals for both teams. You know, I think they'll have any, I think what you'll find is over the course of time, the marketing departments, the, you know, the in-house media people, the graphics departments and all these other things will end up with a fair amount of people in them.

Starting point is 00:32:14 They'll just be kind of working on their umbrella that has them touching both franchises. And for most of these jobs, that's completely fine. Well, and obviously, I want to make it clear. I'm not saying this in any way to be either insensitive or indifferent towards people losing their jobs because it's, well, what I'm about to say, because it sucks. And, you know, you and I have been on the wrong end of that with different companies over the years. Right. If you work in this space long enough, I mean, it just I, I'm currently in my third go around.

Starting point is 00:32:51 with the ESPN. I have been laid off brought back, laid off brought back currently, thankfully still in the brought back phase. But, you know, this stuff. I actually got the third layoff. Yeah, I mean, it's just. I'm hoping I can get one more because then I get my free latte. Yeah, it's very common in a lot of industries, but in particular in the media space. But as far as what fans care about the most, which is quite frankly, and again, at the risk of sounding. indelicate about it. They care about the basketball side. They don't really care about the business ops. I think most Laker fans assume it's the effing Lakers. It's a money printing machine. We don't really care who's in charge of the money printing machine as long as they like,

Starting point is 00:33:40 as long as they keep it plugged in. Things are going to be fine. It's part of the reason why to be perfectly honest for so long, Jeannie was the popular bus family. member, you know, next to obviously Dr. Bus, the most popular one because, A, Jeannie, you know, she has a really good personality. She's very good on camera. She is, you know, very friendly if you're ever around her. You know, we've interacted with Jeannie many times over the years, like all of that stuff. But also she was running business ops and was being compared to her brother Jim, who was running the basketball side in the eyes of many people doing it badly in a baseball cap and a mullet. And that's what people actually care about.

Starting point is 00:34:22 Like, that's what fans actually care about. Yeah. So, again, I feel horrible for all these people who've lost their jobs. But from a fans perspective in terms of what draws you to the organization in the first place, you're likely, I think, not going to notice a difference. No, I don't think you will at all. And I think over the biggest difference, you know, I think you'll see the Lakers following the Dodgers model, which is basically

Starting point is 00:34:52 monetize. If it's even to be monetized to the tiniest degree, it will be. If you go around the Dodger Stadium, like, that's what the place looks like now. And by the way, they have a $500 million payroll. So again, nobody's complaining. Locked Out Lakers on YouTube is we're going to hang out. At some point, they're actually going to have to give show A his money. Like, they can only defer it for so long.

Starting point is 00:35:16 He's got on. I mean, but like it's not like show his clipping coupons while he goes with that either. He's fine. He's doing just fine. It's a sweet deal. At some point, the $680 million or whatever comes to. It'll be all right. Watson Lakers on YouTube is where you can hang out with our 38,000 subscribers.

Starting point is 00:35:36 Everybody have a great weekend. We'll see you Monday.

Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - How the NBA's New Lottery and Anti-Tanking Rules Impact the Lakers

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