Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - Lakers vs. Rockets: Best Case, Worst Case and Series Predictions. Who wins?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Lakers Rockets, game one is almost here. We'll give you best case scenarios, worst case scenarios, and we'll tell you who's going to win the series next. You are Locked on Lakers. Your daily Los Angeles Lakers podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day.

Starting point is 00:00:25 Thanks to everybody for joining Locked on Lakers, Brian Komeneski with Andy Kaminowski. I want to let you know that today's episode is brought to by Fandul. Right now, new customers can bet for just $5 and get $250 a bonus bet. That's if your first bet wins, had to fando.com to get started. So we're about, you know, what, 24 hours or so away from game one. Lakers hosting 530 local time, Pacific Time, at crypto.com against those hated rockets, hated and heavily favored rockets.

Starting point is 00:00:58 The damn good players, rockets, as LeBron kept saying during Thursday's practice over and over, said they got a lot of damn good players. I think they were saying that about the Lakers? If so, do you think they meant it at Houston practice? I would look, man, I hope they're not. I hope they're taking the Lakers lightly. I hope they're saying that it's LeBron, who at this point is geriatric and a bunch of scrubs.

Starting point is 00:01:25 I hope so. So I hope you're being facetious. I hope the answer is no. Yeah, I don't think they, I think they're taking them seriously. seriously, unfortunately. But we will find out. Obviously, Houston rightly favored, as LeBron points out, it's not just the Kevin Durant show. They've got a lot of really good players up and down their roster, in and out of their rotation, and are particularly well architected

Starting point is 00:01:56 to screw up this version of the Lakers who lose so much skill. with the injuries to Luca Donchich and Austin Reeves without gaining a whole lot of athleticism in the process. It's not like they can, you know, plan B is all of a sudden, let's go out athlete Houston. They just lose the skill and the scoring and have to figure out how to, how to replace it. So, Andy, of 11 of 12 ESPN experts,

Starting point is 00:02:24 all picked the Houston Rockets. I have not seen anyone other than Marcus Spears pick the Lakers to win this series. but we now are going to walk through some of the best case and worst case scenarios, and then we will tell you who we think is going to win in how many games and why. Do you want to start with the best case or the worst case for the Lakers? Start with the best. I mean, in some respects, the best and the worst are just going to be inverses of each other. But in thinking about one best case scenario for the Lakers,

Starting point is 00:03:00 like in a way that I think actually can become advantage Lakers and actually can, it's going to take a lot of work to get to this point. But I really do believe that if the Lakers can keep these games close down the stretch in what we define as clutch time, the last five minutes, last three minutes, the last minute, the last several possessions, I 100% trust not just, I trust LeBron more than I trust anybody on the Rockets in terms of the person that will be running those possessions as a facilitator, the basketball IQ, the communication, the ability to anticipate. I trust LeBron more than anybody, like any single player on the Rockets. But I also trust JJ and his coaching staff more than I trust Eme Adoka and his coaching staff.

Starting point is 00:04:00 Even, I mean, we've been listening to a lot of different NBA media and people break down in the series. And the universal prediction is basically Rockets in blank. But even the people picking Rockets in blank, the overwhelming majority think JJ and his staff is a better, more creative, better adjusting staff than Ime Adoka. I think if they can keep these games tight down the stretch, which, again, a lot of work in those opening 43 minutes,

Starting point is 00:04:36 I do think those final minutes shift advantage Lakers. And that's a thing. I am not willing to go all the way there with you on that. I am willing to say it's possible. But here's what I need to. to see first. I need to see that the Lakers who have been a good, JJ pointed this out at practice

Starting point is 00:05:01 on Thursday. Lakers been a good half-court team even when Austin and Luca aren't on the floor. They've still been a pretty good half-court offense. I am going to need to see that the Lakers can generate shots, good shots, when Houston crasson. ranks up the defense in that sort of crunch time last five minutes sort of scenario where, you know, the intensity level, which is high already, is going to get higher. Now, I mean, I think there's a, there's a test to be had in those first 43 minutes, see if the Lakers in. The answer is they can't really create enough offense.

Starting point is 00:05:46 They're not going to get to the last five minutes. So it's a bit of a, you know, we won't, we won't find out. But I will say if the Lakers can execute and generate shots in those last five minutes, I think what you're talking about certainly could play a big factor. And I also think the fact that the rockets will be far more prone to being tight in that situation because they're not supposed to be there, then the Lakers will be because they're excited to be like, hey, you know, we're in this thing. Every minute that they're close late in the game is going to energize the Lakers and potentially,

Starting point is 00:06:34 can't guarantee it, but potentially be a burden on Houston. And in that sense, I absolutely agree that that's a place where they can, where they can press an advantage. I also think, you know, the, there is, I don't want to say the Lakers are going to be hard to defend because that's overstating it. There is an egalitarianness to what the Lakers are going to be doing, where game to game, I think it could be a little difficult

Starting point is 00:07:11 to game plan for, because I don't necessarily think the support, I mean, LeBron is LeBron, but beyond that, I think you're going to get a little different flavor of different things every game. It doesn't have to be Rui and then followed by Jake and then DeAndre Aiton. There's no hierarchy to what the Lakers are doing.

Starting point is 00:07:31 Well, it better be DeAndre Aten ahead of Jake, but I'm not correct. There's not a hierarchy. There's not a pecking order that they have to follow. There's not a what's wrong with it. It's just go, and we talked about this for Friday morning, but like if you have the discipline to, execute the offense, make the right pass, make the right read, and whatever, it is going to

Starting point is 00:07:51 force Houston to sort of defend everybody and defend kind of differently each game. Because, again, I just don't think the Lakers are going to look the same from game to game, again, after the LeBron factor. So, you know, players like Aiton and Rui and Kinnard and Jake, you know, are going to have to figure out ways to score points. That's not what I mean. I just mean that it's going to be pretty egalitarian, which can be an advantage to a team. How they're going to defend Reed Shepard, I think remains to be seen. But if they can do a good job getting Shepard out of rhythm, preventing him from really thriving is either a score or facilitator, shooter, all of the above, A, it messes a lot with Houston's already kind of clunky

Starting point is 00:08:46 offense. Shepard is one of their better offensive stabilizers. If you mess with him, A, it messes with the offense. B, Ime Adoka is looking for reasons to yank him off the floor because he doesn't trust him defensively, doesn't trust him, period, despite the fact that

Starting point is 00:09:01 pretty much all the numbers and data bear out that they are better with Shepard on the floor. He is not Ime Adoka's cup of tea. So the more you can reinforce to Emea Doka, Shepard doesn't work. I think the long run that actually helps the Lakers out.

Starting point is 00:09:18 I want to keep talking about some potential advantages, some things that's sort of the best case scenarios here. Obviously break down where all of this could go wrong. We'll deliver some predictions as well. We'll do all of it next. Locked on Lakers is brought to you by Indeed, there's workplace chaos, the deadlines are creeping up. The inbox is overflowing.

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Starting point is 00:12:50 excellent shooting you know Luke Kinnard really you know thrives and Marcus Smart is hitting his shots and you get you know that four or five that Jake Laravia had I forget which it might have been Phoenix or I think it was

Starting point is 00:13:06 that you know that the shot looks like it's coming back or you get something from him offensive and, you know, Jared Vanderbilt pops in a three here and there. Like, you just, you get consistently good shooting, at least through enough games that the Lakers do it. You get the plan of essentially being able to find ways to make it easier for LeBron to operate by getting him the ball in effective positions to be able to then either score or distribute is effective. You know, you get a well, you know, I'm not rooting for it. nobody should be, but you get a little bit lucky, you know, somebody twists an ankle and misses a half, you know, whatever it might be. You're needed, you know, probably a break or two like that. That's kind of, I think, the formula, like where the Lakers can get good results. They start to build. And as you said in the first segment, Andy, you put Houston in a position where they start thinking about it, where they start having to be very aware that they are not doing the thing that everybody is expecting them to do.

Starting point is 00:14:11 And I don't know if that will be enough, but that to me is sort of the recipe for the Lakers. You know, you get really strong play from Aiton and Hayes in that center position and stuff like that. The Lakers constantly have reasons to stay very engaged and very positive about what they're doing. Well, that actually, in a lot of ways, segs into something I'm thinking about with worst-case scenario. when you mention the performances of the players not named LeBron James Sr. Like when you think about the five best players in this series, like rank them whatever or you want, I don't care. That's not the point.

Starting point is 00:14:53 Right. Not the point. Let's just say for the sake of this argument, LeBron, number one, then KD. I think the general consensus would be then Shengun. Then you get to Amin Thompson and just he is a vicious point of attack defender. He's a really versal defender in general. Like, you know, there's some offensive limitations, particularly as a shooter.

Starting point is 00:15:14 I imagine they are going to, at times, dare him to make some shots, go under some screens, like make him prove that he can hit a jumper, but he's a really good ascending player. So right there, you're looking at three of the top four players in this series being Rockets. Jabari Smith, Jr., to me, seems like the most predictable guy

Starting point is 00:15:39 to be the fifth best player in this series. That's the worst case scenario, is that whether you're talking about Ruby or Aiton or smart, Luke Kinnard, somebody does not leapfrog Jabari Smith Jr. Like in a lot of ways, I consider him the biggest X factor for the Rockets, specifically for this reason.

Starting point is 00:16:01 Like, he's a really good player, and that's part of what makes him bad as an X factor. He's good. But also, if he outplays every Laker, not named LeBron James Sr., that talent gap truly becomes insurmountable. You know, it can be a different guy every night. It can be Ruby. It can be eight, and it can be smart, whatever.

Starting point is 00:16:23 Like, I don't care how it happens. If some Laker cannot regularly account for top five player in this series status, I think the Lakers are going to be in insurmountable trouble. My big concern, and here's where my worst case scenario comes, and I unfortunately, this is potentially quite realistic. The Lakers are being, the Lakers offensively, forget the defensive parts, because I think you can effort your way to at least some success defensively.

Starting point is 00:16:55 Effort matters a little bit less in the playoffs because everybody's trying hard, but Houston is not so good offensively that, you know, you're chasing guys around screens and like the creativity is like all that stuff. I think you might be able to get by. But offensively, they have so many good defenders. And you're asking the Lakers to be playing without two of their three best creators, not just from a scoring standpoint,

Starting point is 00:17:21 but guys who create other shots for players. And so you need Luke Kinnard to be better than he, you know, in a bigger role. You need Rui to be better in a bigger role. You need Jake to be better in a bigger role. but you also don't have the tools to give them the same shot quality that they've had during the season and all that. I think, you know, so that's just in and up itself a problem. And then you add Houston's defensive capabilities to that. And I don't think they're going to need to overplay LeBron, for example.

Starting point is 00:17:53 Like teams blitz Luca. They try to get the ball out of his hands. Not a great strategy. It doesn't work. I always think that favors the Lakers when teams do it. But here, I don't think you can put Amen Thompson or whoever you want on LeBron, play him pretty straight up. And just tell everybody, play everybody straight up. Don't give anybody any oxygen.

Starting point is 00:18:13 Overplay if you have to. Make them back cut, make them move the ball. Show us that you can out-execute our defensive capabilities. And I think that's going to be something that's going to be very difficult for the Lakers to overcome 48 minutes a game. is just that athleticism and defense and lack of high-end offensive talent to keep teams honest. So that's my worst-case scenario is just the Lakers, it's pretty clear, aren't going to be able to score at a high enough level, and it's going to force them to play defense in ways that are just probably unsustainable.

Starting point is 00:18:54 Yeah, I mean, there is a real onus on Luke Kahnard, and especially Marcus Smart, to be at minimum B plus level facilitators. You know, for what it's worth, Marcus Smart has a pretty solid history, particularly the latter part of his career with the Celtics, as somebody with a usage rate in the high teens, low 20s, he's averaged the last few seasons with the Celtics in the regular season in the playoffs between five and a half,

Starting point is 00:19:25 six assists, a game like he has a history of, of having this type of role, not at the same necessarily level of urgency, because those teams also had Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown there to do a lot of the star stuff, as opposed to the Lakers being down to just one star. But Smart at least does have some track record of raising his level as a floor general in these type of scenarios.

Starting point is 00:19:55 So we'll see. Yeah, and then, you know, the part that again, Again, going back to sort of these worst case and just being honest about the challenge years, they have to do that while they score and score efficiently. So I think that, again, it's not impossible, but it's a tall order. So predictions for this series, do you want me to go first or would you like to go first? I'll go first. I got Rockets and six.

Starting point is 00:20:19 Remember, by the way, last year, even as Brian and I both predicted the Lakers to win the series, y'all yelled at us because you said we were giving the Timberwolves way too much credit. They ended up winning that series in five. So if the Lakers pull this off, you don't need to get in the comment section in our mentions on Twitter at Cambrothers. Yell and I told you so because A, more than happy to have the Lakers pull off this stuff. I will be thrilled to be wrong. B, y'all are a bunch of liars because I've seen most of your comments and the mentions on Twitter. and you're all saying you don't think the Lakers can do this anyway.

Starting point is 00:20:58 I have Rockets and Six. And if we're sort of like what kind of six game series you're talking here, I think it is more likely that it's shorter than that, than it is longer. I do see a path the Lakers could take to win the series. I'm obviously not choosing it, but I think it's there. I just think a lot of things have to go right and they have to go right early.

Starting point is 00:21:26 I think it's really important that Lakers sort of set some kind of of expectation and set some possibilities early. It's a series that could get away from them if they don't. Locked on Lakers on YouTube is where you can go hang out with over 38,000 subscribers to the channel. We, of course, be back after Saturday's game

Starting point is 00:21:49 with full Game One reaction. We'll see everyone then.

Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - Lakers vs. Rockets: Best Case, Worst Case and Series Predictions. Who wins?

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