Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - LeBron James Has Decisions to Make With His Contract. What's Best for the Lakers?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Hey everyone, welcome to Locked-on Lakers for Monday. Brian Komenetsky, Andy Komenetsky as the offseason kicks off. The Lakers have big questions around their stars. What are Luca Donchich and LeBron James going to do? It's next. You are Locked on Lakers. Your daily Los Angeles Lakers podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day.

Starting point is 00:00:28 Thanks to everybody for making Locked on Lakers first listen to every day, Monday through Friday, no matter how where you get your podcast. This one's always free. never behind paywall and locked on Lakers on YouTube where 35,000 plus subscribers are all looking ahead to the offseason to figure out exactly what the Lakers are going to look like next year. Maybe it'll try to make a more coherent run deep in the Western Conference playoffs. And to that end, Andy, we got some news about their biggest stars, LeBron James and Luke Donchich and how they're going to approach their off-season.

Starting point is 00:01:05 We'll get to all that at a moment. I want to let people know that today's episode is brought to you by Monarch Money. Take control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use the code locked on MBA at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. And Andy, speaking of people planning on taking control of their finances, Luca Donchich and LeBron James with offseason contract choices they need to make. Luca is, he can do whatever he wants, however he wants to, structure his deal.

Starting point is 00:01:38 The Lakers will happily accommodate. There is no indication whatsoever that as he prepares this summer to go play for Slovenia in the Eurobasket, which will spend plenty of time talking about into the off season that he is anywhere. He's playing on going, but L.A.

Starting point is 00:01:54 So not much intrigue there. LeBron, however, the choices he has to make, and particularly the how he chooses to make the choices he has to make, have an enormous impact on what the Lakers will look like over the next couple of years. Yeah, it's going to be interesting in terms of just what type of contract LeBron decides to have this upcoming offseason. He has the ability to opt in or out this upcoming offseason.

Starting point is 00:02:29 Yovam Buha from the Athletic reported that if LeBron opts out, he is not expected to offer any type of team discount like the one he did during last off season where it was a little under $3 million to keep the team under what was it the either the first it was under the second apron under the second apron it allows them more flexibility in terms of some of the roster and he did it like they did it by like $11 like he they really figured out exactly what the number was and then you know that's what he gave back right so it it's not expected that he's going to do that this time around, although who knows?

Starting point is 00:03:09 I think these things can be fungible in terms of what's being reported right now. I don't know how much that matters for a decision that LeBron is not going to be making until the end of June. And just so people are aware, it's not exactly the same issue as it was last year where LeBron can leave like $3 million on the table, which, hey, it's $3 million. dollars but you know whatever that number was to to get the play the lakers to a place and really the big thing here would be for the lakers to be able to use a full mid-level the non-whatever it is like the non-tapeowner taxpayer mid-level non-taxpayer mid-level he'd have to leave about 20 million

Starting point is 00:03:54 which is you know leaves him with a perfectly healthy salary nobody's passing a hat but that is a significant give back from a star player to a franchise to leave $20 million on the table just so they can get like a slightly better free agent with an exception. Well, I mean, we'll get into this. I don't agree that your choices, at least potentially, we don't know exactly who's going to be available, who's going to be opting in, opting out in teams around the league. but the difference in player that you can get between a $14 million full mid-level exception versus a taxpayer at under six.

Starting point is 00:04:38 I mean, that that is significant. It is, but yeah, my point is that $14 million doesn't get you an all-star or a new all-star player. It doesn't, it's that's, we're not talking about if LeBron came back for $2 million. Okay, now we're talking about something. But like the difference that we're talking about here with that, just the taxpayer versus not low to to put that out there isn't enough because there are a lot of people who even believe, you know, if LeBron doesn't come back, they suddenly have an extra $50 million to play with, for example. I say I put this, I mentioned this solely so people understand. Right.

Starting point is 00:05:18 You're not getting, you know, it's it's not like LeBron giving the $20 million back allows them to go get the prime. free agent on the market. No. Whoever that is, and again, what is expected to be a pretty weak year. So people understand, if LeBron walked away, the Lakers would, as currently constructed,

Starting point is 00:05:40 gain about $16 million in cap space. That could be affected by what happens with Dore and Finney Smith. If, say, Gabe Vincent or Maxi Claiba was basically dumped into somebody else's salary space, things like that. But LeBron just outright

Starting point is 00:05:56 walking in and of itself would create about 16 million cap space, which to my earlier point, that would obviously get you a at least potentially better level of player than what you are left shopping with, you know, just under $6 million as your only exception. But you're not going to be all of a sudden in the, you're not going to all of a sudden be in the superstar sweepstakes if LeBron leaves. That $50 million doesn't just show. shift back to the Lakers in different form. And that's just what you're basically. If LeBron walks, the player you're going to get, the money you get in, in that, you

Starting point is 00:06:38 know, because of that doesn't get you a player anywhere near as good as LeBron. Yeah. And we're in this really weird place right now, very complicated place and something I've talked about a lot over the last couple years and was reminded of as you were having this conversation with a lot of different people on Twitter over the weekend about people wanting LeBron to walk away, whether because they mistakenly believe that $50 million just shifts back to the Lakers with endless possibilities or they're just tired of LeBron, whatever. The Lakers are in this complicated place where LeBron is undoubtedly still playing

Starting point is 00:07:17 at a high level. And what he is doing is quite literally unprecedented. It is remarkable that he is still able to perform at this level to play as many games as he did last season. I've said many times that the surge the Lakers had defensively, the number one thing was LeBron dedicating himself on defense. I don't think anything else happens without LeBron doing that at age 40, which is like many things LeBron did unprecedented. So LeBron is still really good and both of us appreciate. This is the longest setup for a butt. Well, because it ain't my first day and I know how much people ignore context.

Starting point is 00:08:07 Yeah, like a good minute left in the segment if you want to really hammer home. Well, that's the other thing too. Everything before the butt. Well, Brian, I also have been doing this a long time. I know how long our segments are. I know how to pin us towards a break. Thank you for just taking people behind the curtain. ruining the magic.

Starting point is 00:08:24 The fourth wall, right. The other piece of this, though, it is increasingly complicated when you have $53 million devoted to one player who, while still playing at a high level, because he is 40, 41 next season, he increasingly needs more help every season. and that becomes increasingly difficult to do when he's making $50-ish million in a capped league. Both of those things are true at the same time. LeBron is great to have on your team.

Starting point is 00:09:04 LeBron at this stage of his career is complicated to have on your team. Both things are true. All right, so let's break down that aspect of it next. Lockdown Lakers is brought to you by BetterHelp. The show is sponsored by Better Help. taking care of your mental health is just as important as taking care of your physical health. But traditional in-person therapy, it can be expensive, often ranging from $100 to $250 per session. That's where better help comes in.

Starting point is 00:09:36 With online therapy, you can get quality care at a price that makes sense, saving you time and money. Therapy, it's not just for life's toughest moments. It can help with everyday stress, learning how to cope and set boundaries, positive coping skills, having access to support when you need it can make a big difference. I can personally test you how much therapy helped me and my family several years ago during a really difficult period for all of us, just learning better ways to communicate and to give and take without feeling dissatisfied in the process. Your well-being is worth it.

Starting point is 00:10:10 Visit betterhelp.com slash locked-on MBA today to get 10% off your first month. That's BetterHelp, h-elp.com slash locked-on NBA. Okay. Okay. Doak. So by the way, thank you to everyone for all of your support with the newsletter program. Unfortunately, it just didn't quite work out for the network the way that we had hoped. So if you did sign up for the newsletter and you will notice this week, it actually isn't coming because we're just not doing it anymore. So we do thank you for the support. Obviously, you know, happy it didn't call. anybody anything but maybe we'll try to find other ways send us questions send us comments through here either on the on youtube uh if that's how you watch or at cam brothers on twitter you can email us kamanatsky brothers at gmail.com we will try to make it as interactive as possible and send out as much information as we can so anyway you know look the lakers are in a situation with LeBron that is imperfect.

Starting point is 00:11:27 And I've heard you talk about this before, but I'm also not sure what you do about it. I mean, it's other than recognize it and build a team appropriately because, you know, yes, LeBron is 40 is going to be 41, but he's coming off a very good season. Sure. He is actually, you know, I realized too that while the playoffs had some shortcomings to them, the Lakers definitely needed him to score more in down the stretch of games. Like he was too silent, although we learned in game, his quietness in game five might have been injure related. Had he, you know, it was a sprained MCL.

Starting point is 00:12:16 Yeah. Was the diagnosis coming out. he would probably have missed the rest of the playoffs. But he still, you know, so he finished the regular season averaging about 24, 25 points, eight rebounds, eight assists on 51 percent shooting, almost 38 percent from three point range. And even the postseason where he did not score enough in the, you know, down the stretch of games, still finished 25 and a half points,

Starting point is 00:12:40 nine rebounds, five and a half assists, and nearly two blocks along with two steals per night, shot basically 50% from the floor. So the production is still extremely high end. And it's well beyond anything you're going to find to replace it. He's basically untradable, both because he has a no trade clause, and also because the logistics of trading LeBron James are complicated, the kindest way to say it.

Starting point is 00:13:17 So I recognize everything that you're saying about the complexities of having LeBron there, but short of suck it up and let him go and basically put yourself in a position where the next year or two of Luca are going to be very difficult to build around. I don't know what I do with that information. You know what I'm saying? Yes and no. I for this upcoming season, 100%. Beyond that, I don't agree with you at all. And I'll get into why I thought about like different scenarios for this offseason with LeBron.

Starting point is 00:13:57 And part of the reason that you keep thinking of these different scenarios is we still don't know exactly when the end will happen. But I thought about four different scenarios in terms of the, I guess, sort of immediate and distant future with LeBron, because in a lot of lot of ways are the same thing, from best to worst in terms of things that could happen, not necessarily will, but could. The best case scenario would be LeBron ops out, then re-ups with the Lakers at enough of a discount where the Lakers gain a full mid-level exception, which would give them the greatest amount of optionalities for upgrades that, like I said, will help LeBron as well as helping the Lakers. I want to make this clear. Crystal clear. I do not think LeBron is even slightly obligated to do this for the Lakers,

Starting point is 00:14:52 in part because doing this guarantees nothing in terms of what Rob Polinka does. He'd be taking a 20-ish million dollar leap of faith. And I don't care how much money. LeBron's already banked 20 mil is still a lot of money. And again, it's like context matters here too. There's really nobody, there aren't a lot of people to put that money towards. Well, we'll see. You never know. Currently, there are not a lot of players because the guys like, let's say Julius Randall declines his player option with Minnesota, which he probably will let him look at it. A, Minnesota is going to bring him back or try really hard because he was a centerpiece of that deal.

Starting point is 00:15:29 B, 16 million is not going to get it. No, but if you have $16 million, you could potentially get to $8 million players that you otherwise not be able to have. You gain more optionality. I'm not denying that. I'm just not, I'm saying there aren't a lot of good players out there to option with, is my point. Sure. Not the, not this off season. Like I said, I don't blame LeBron if he's not willing to go there anyway.

Starting point is 00:15:55 I don't think it reflects poorly on him. I don't think he owes the Lakers this in the same way. I don't think the Lakers owe LeBron anything other than his salary and competency. Like, this is not the relationship the Lakers had with Kobe or with magic. Like, it's not one of those things. But that said, if LeBron. realistically wanted to give himself the best opportunity at an upgraded roster in a capped league, unfortunately, this is the thing he probably needs to do.

Starting point is 00:16:25 Number two, in terms of second best, LeBron simply opts in, which I imagine becomes LeBron's retirement tour. If it's just his one season left, I'm guessing it ends up his final season. Maybe. Third, LeBron walks. for the reasons we discussed before, you don't gain really much of anything if LeBron leaves or anything in terms of really trying to replace LeBron.

Starting point is 00:16:53 You want to add to what you have to LeBron. In all likelihood, the team will be worse if LeBron flat out walks. The worst thing, though, in my opinion, that could happen is LeBron ops out, then signs another one plus one for max numbers. That, to me, is a borderline. disaster because in 2026, you start reaching a place where potentially a lot of guys are off your books, even if a couple guys are extended, you start really gaining the ability to try to build around Luca as much as you possibly would want to build around Luca, except for the

Starting point is 00:17:36 50 million-ish dollars that are going towards LeBron at age 42. That's just, starts becoming untenable to me. Like you start reaching a place where it feels like you are just waiting for the end of something that isn't happening and you don't know when it's going to take place. And then in the meantime, by the time you have the entire flexibility to really put the team around Luca that you want, he's like 28, 29. Like, I think LeBron, to be honest, would start generating some resentment, particularly if it looks like he's sticking around because he wants to play either with or against both

Starting point is 00:18:17 Bronny and Bryce. I've seen the Bryce stuff. He's certainly not going to make him draft two of his sons. But even if he's sticking around so he can play with Brony against Bryce, if it appears that way, I think it will start engendering resentment from Laker fans. Like you're really overstaying, you're welcome. And I also think it's the worst case scenario for the Laker. Like the idea of going through summer of 2027 and then maybe you're doing this all over again.

Starting point is 00:18:49 And we know the Lakers are never going to kick LeBron out the door. So let me, well, along those lines, I got a question for you, which we can tackle next. Locked on Lakers is brought to you by Monarch money. You ever check your bank account and wonder, where did all the money go? Between dining out online shopping, entertainment, it's really easy to lose track. And that's where Monarch money comes in. your personal CFO, giving you full visibility and control over your finances. Monarch money, it's not just a budgeting app.

Starting point is 00:19:20 It's a complete financial command center. You can track your accounts, investments, spending all in one place, so you stop managing your money and you start building wealth. You can enjoy the convenience of not juggling multiple apps anymore. Just use Monarch to check your finances, track spending, even plan long-term goals, and managing money with your partner is smoother than ever. You can track shared and personal accounts, set goals, stay on the same, page without the stress.

Starting point is 00:19:45 Take control of your finances with Monarch money. Use code locked on MBA at Monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. That's monarchmoney.com code locked on NBA for half off your first. So you're Rob Polinka, Andy, and LeBron comes to you and says, hmm, yeah, I want to opt out and I just want to do another, and I want to do a one on one one and one. What do you say? How much money are we talking? I'm not max pretty close to it. I want you know, I might be leave a little bit, you know, money here and there. But if, you know, how about I make the same amount of money or two million dollars less than Luca going forward.

Starting point is 00:20:37 And Luca is, you know, maybe not post extension, Luke pre extension Luca at the very least. I think Luca is set to make like 48 million or something next year. Like give me sort of right in line with whatever Luca's making, which is less than he could. Well, by then, actually. Lucas is online for 46 next year. Let's say LeBron says, give me a year, you know, one and one that is valued at about between 90 to 100 million. So it's less than it could be, but more than that.

Starting point is 00:21:09 That is considerably less than it could be. I would, if I'm Rob Polinka, I have a very honest conversation. If you're asking me what I think he should do, you'd have a very honest conversation with LeBron about, I don't think I can build the roster around you that is worth either one of our times if you're still making $40 to $50 million a year. I don't think I can do it. I don't think I can do what is worth either one of our time. I would also ask LeBron, are you sure you're retiring after this? Are these your final two years? Do we know this is it?

Starting point is 00:21:43 because you can't keep doing this in perpetuity at this price. And in the meantime, like I said, you know, after the summer of 2026, I don't know what happens with everybody's particular extensions, but Austin Reeves may be off your books. Gabe Vincent will certainly be off your books. From everything I'm reading, Austin, it makes much more financial sense for him to wait until after 2026 to have a new contract. Yeah, to have a new, because of, A percentage of cap that he can make.

Starting point is 00:22:16 Most people are not expecting that Austin will get an extension done this offseason. But your basic point, the Lakers don't really have anybody under contract. Right. And that is presumably anything they do off this office. Right. And that is exactly what you want in terms of the perfect opportunity to really build the roster around your in his prime superstar. and I'm sorry with all sincere respect and admiration and appreciation for LeBron,

Starting point is 00:22:49 him making 45, 50, 50 plus mill at his age, knowing he needs more infrastructure, even acknowledging the guy is still playing at a high level that is not conducive to roster building. It just isn't. Yeah, I mean, basically. like this if he opts in this this great if he ops I I hope he sticks around for this coming season I really do because I think the Lakers will be better for him doing it I don't want him to walk this off season because so you also don't want him to do for whatever unless it's a really low number you don't want him to be around for the year after that yes you don't want to have them to have the control of that so if you have to choose between lebron and a big

Starting point is 00:23:35 number and lebron walking away which would you choose walking and it's an it you know I mean and I get it and like you're basically making it you're trading next season for the hope of being able to put something together over the three or four years following it's also in part i'm not convinced that they're going to be able to rebuild the roster of this off season to make them front running contenders anyway that's part of it um it's going to be hard i mean they're not going to have a lot of stuff they're going to have to do it through trades they're going to do it through it. It's it is a really challenging situation to go into the um, you know, the year we need to convince our new superstar to stick around and basically say,

Starting point is 00:24:25 we're not going to be contending next year and we're not going to be and we know that. Um, you're just going to have to trust us and I don't know. I mean, it's I I I'll put the same question to you. If you have to choose I would mean, I would mean, I would mean, I would. I would probably give him the one-on-one. And two things, I think, are, you know, you can, if the wheels come off in a big way, I don't think LeBron wants to play a season at, you know, 42, and it really looks like he's just hanging on for this person to hang on. I agree.

Starting point is 00:25:02 Well, I am actually somewhat confident that if he was unable to perform like he did, this season, he would walk away. And all of the caveats and risks and this and that aside, he was still, he's going to make an all-NBA team and should. I mean, I don't have all the numbers of qualifying games and this and that in front of me. But LeBron at 258 and 8, an over 50% shooting was an all-N-B-A caliber performer. Pick a team. It doesn't matter.

Starting point is 00:25:40 I made no bones about the fact that he still plays on a high level. And so the problem is where do you go replace that? And are you able to do that the year following? It's like it's got a potentially pretty good opportunity to do it the year following. Yeah. And we'll look. We'll look into it.

Starting point is 00:25:56 We'll look into it the like who is available. The problem is free agency has become, I think, the worst way to rebuild teams. You look at the teams that have done like, you know, the guys who you have to commit money to. tend to be getting well into their 30s. You know, it's the injury risk of Kauai Leonard. It's Paul George. It's, you know, guys like that that you have to figure out how much money we're giving you, you know, you have to give them tons and tons of money on long deals.

Starting point is 00:26:27 I have not looked at the free agent, the potential free agents for that year. You can also build through trades. Salary cap space can be done through trades, but they don't have a lot of stuff that they can put into a trade to acquire a superstar in that way. So, you know, I think you are more likely looking at free agency for the Lakers than being able to kind of build through trades, certainly not able to build through the draft in any meaningful way and stuff like that. So I don't think you're wrong.

Starting point is 00:27:01 And I think they're in a difficult spot. And it, no question puts them in a place where like, yeah, you know, our second best player requires a certain level of upkeep in consideration that maybe someone else's second best player doesn't. Especially too, just as the infrastructure around them needs to get more athletic, needs to get younger, faster, all of that stuff. I mean, we're, we are seeing across the league that older teams, you know, the warriors managed to get out of this series with the rockets, but it was not easy.

Starting point is 00:27:36 We're not easy. And the rockets are very clearly. offensively not nearly well developed enough. And an experience. And an experience. But you're seeing that it just gets harder. And you need younger, more athletes, all of that stuff. If you could tell me that they could go out and sign, you know, in their prime type

Starting point is 00:27:56 free agents and I'd be like, yeah, okay, now I think. And look, we'll start. If people can, you know, leave in the comments, look, we'll start looking ahead, keeping in mind that the names in. inevitably change. But you just, the Lakers are not in a great spot to acquire superstar talent. And if that's the goal to put around Luca,

Starting point is 00:28:25 it's tricky. But I don't think you're, I don't think you're wrong. I just don't know what the alternative necessarily is other than very likely spending a couple seasons where you're reassembling some, thing. Like I don't know if I trust them to be able to both do it and then have the the personnel available to reassemble in one off season what you're trying to do around Luca. That to me doesn't feel very realistic either. None of none of these paths are going to be

Starting point is 00:28:59 easy. We you know, we've talked about for a couple of years, the Lakers being in somewhat of a disadvantageous place in terms of the, the, the, the, the spot that they're working from right now for building. Like still in some of this can be crazily enough, still connected back to Russ and that deal and the stuff that they had to, all the things they had to do in order to even somewhat unwind it. Like I want to make it clear, the better case scenario that I was talking about,

Starting point is 00:29:30 I don't think will be easy necessarily. I'm just thinking about in terms of if I had to play the odds, what will give me the best chance if it's more, you know, if if it's potentially a worst, a worst season in 2026 for what appears to be more flexibility to build a proper lucic-centric roster around Luca versus a couple more years at least with LeBron at that salary with those needs. It's not a matter of wanting to see LeBron leave. It's a matter of it's a capped league.

Starting point is 00:30:12 Them's the rules. Right. I mean, they do get a little bit of benefit the cap going up, but we'll see, depending on how much space he wants to take. I do agree with you. Probably the best scenario for them is anything that gives them certainty. If LeBron said one and one, but, you know, handshake deal, if I break down and suck next year, I'm going to walk away.

Starting point is 00:30:32 But I'm done after two years. years. Like, that's it. That gives them enough certainty that they can start to maneuver around in that way. The hardest thing about LeBron has always been, and we've talked about this, that it's just, you know, he keeps playing. This has gone on longer than anybody, including LeBron, I think, expected it to, in terms of him playing at a high level. And the best case scenario for the Lakers probably would be, opt out, signed for one year at whatever number you want. And then he is an unrestricted free agent the year following and everybody can make decisions. That part, that part I completely agree with it.

Starting point is 00:31:06 Look, this coming season, if LeBron wanted to opt in for one year, I don't really care what they pay him. Like if this was going to be. But that was the scenario presented. The best one is obviously he comes for less money, but I'm not, I'm not putting $20 million. The best realistic would be he opts in for next season, pay him whatever he wants. It's a clean exit. And then in the summer of 2026, the Lakers.

Starting point is 00:31:32 have the full ability to work around Luca with a lot of space. And that could mean still bringing LeBron back, but it doesn't need to. He doesn't have, he doesn't exert that control over the organization. That's the big thing. Anyway, Locked out Lakers on YouTube is where you can go hang out with 35,000 or so subscribers. Make sure you're leaving us questions. Leave us comments. We will use them liberally throughout the off season.

Starting point is 00:32:01 See everyone tomorrow. Thank you.

Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - LeBron James Has Decisions to Make With His Contract. What's Best for the Lakers?

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.