Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - Luka Dončić: Grade II Hamstring Strain, Likely to Miss 1st Round of Playoffs

Episode Date: April 3, 2026

The news is in, and it's not good.  Luka Dončić has been diagnosed with a Grade II hamstring strain, and while the Lakers are only saying he's out the rest of the regular season, the reality is significantly more grim. Luka likely will need 3-6 weeks to get back from this one, at least. According to Jeff Stotts, the great NBA injury expert, the average recovery time for this type of thing is about 35 days. So even if Luka hits that, the Lakers are well into May and somewhere in the second round of the playoffs.  And the idea of divebombing into the postseason against San Antonio or OKC-- assuming they win the opening round-- coming off that injury seems like a bad idea.  The Lakers now need to think with their heads, not their hearts. As does Luka.  So what's next? Can they win a first round matchup without him?  Lots to consider.    HOSTS: Andy and Brian Kamenetzky    Everydayer ClubIf you never miss an episode, it’s time to make it official. Join the Locked On Everydayer Club and get ad-free audio, access to our members-only Discord, and more — all built for our most loyal fans. Click here to learn more and join your team’s community: https://lockedonpodcasts.com/everydayerclub   Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! TurboTax This year you’re getting a major upgrade — Intuit TurboTax now has in-person locations nationwide. Visit http://TurboTax.com/local to book your appointment today. QuoMake this the year where no opportunity - and no cutsomer - slips away.Try Quo for free plus get 20% off your first 6 months when you go to http://Quo.com/lockedonnba. RobinhoodYou’re no longer just a spectator. Play by play. You decide. Trade Every Play with Robinhood.Now available across the U.S. Download the Robinhood app now to begin. Futures and cleared swaps trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Event contracts are offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC., a registered futures commission merchant and swap firm. 5-Hour ENERGY Have your cake & drink it too. Birthday cake-flavor is back, no fork needed. Vanilla-y cakey flavor, caffeinated kick, and no sugar. It's party time. Order Now at 5-hourENERGY.com or Amazon. Indeed Listeners of this show get a $75 Sponsored Job Credit to help give your job the premium placement it deserves at http://Indeed.com/podcast Gametime Today's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDON for $20 off your first purchase. Terms and conditions apply. FanDuel Today's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. During the tournament FanDuel is offering$300 back in Bonus Bets every day for ten days. Visit https://FANDUEL.COMto get started — Play Your Game.   FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This is Brian Kamenetsky co-host of Locked-on Lakers. Andy is away. Lucky for him. So the news on Luca Donchich is in, and it is not great. Could be worse, I guess, but from a practical standpoint, the Lakers are in bad shape here. A grade two hamstring strain is the official diagnosis. The Lakers are saying only at this point that he will not

play in the rest of the regular season. No surprise there. But the average length of recovery for an injury like this is three to six weeks. Jeff Stotz at in the street close, one of the great injury experts in the NBA says that the average time lost to this injury is 35 days. If you're looking for context, Peyton Watson has been dealing with this injury, this grade two hamstring for most of the second half of the season. And, you know, he was, you know, he took him about 45 days to come back and just left. Again, the lineup is now once again week to week with the same hamstring strain. So, you know, it is, it can be a slow injury to heal.

Luca had a hamstring injury earlier in the season that cost him about a week, 10 days or so that got it back in the All-Star break, All-Star game, I should say. this is a different deal altogether. Some important dates here. The Lakers probably start the first round of the playoffs somewhere around April 18th. Obviously, this puts that in jeopardy at the short end.

Three weeks doesn't cover you to get to the first round of the playoffs. Almost surely, Luca will miss the first round of the playoffs. I would be very, very surprised if Luca was able to come back, like genuinely able to come back, not he's willing to try, he's going to give it a go, he's going to do something like that, and still make it back in time for that first round of the playoffs. The Lakers, and we'll talk about this, I'll talk about this a little bit more before we're done here,

but certainly we'll talk about it more as we get into next week in these last five, you know, these last five, games and the Lakers trying to pin down where they're going to finish likely either third or fourth in the conference. Lakers have to be really careful with what they do here going forward. In three weeks, Luca might feel like he is willing to give it a try in four weeks, whatever it might be, halfway through the first round, even into the second round where the Lakers to make it through. And, you know, I am not willing to write off their chances. of winning a first round series,

but obviously they are significantly diminished without Luca. It does help the Lakers are almost sure to open that first round at home. But, you know, so we'll see about that. But anyway, the timeline puts the Lakers likely not to see Luka again this season unless they are playing into May. And I don't mean by a day or two. I mean, you know, two weeks, three weeks,

three weeks into May, that means they're going to have to get through a second round matchup with against a San Antonio, against Oklahoma City, whatever it might be. They're going to have to get through that before you could realistically see Luca. I mean, again, and I see people in the chat as we go live on YouTube, pointing out that, you know, Peyton Watson again, needed about six weeks. Aaron Gordon needed about six weeks. Watson especially has re-injured that hamstring. Gordon re-injured the hamstring.

You have to be real careful. You come back too fast from this one. There's almost a, it seems like almost a guarantee that you're going to find some complications. And the Lakers, there are the short-term implications you can say, yeah, you know, he's got all summer to heal. That's true. But what you don't want to do is take this soft tissue injury and make it become a cross-term. chronic thing, where if, you know, this is something that plagues Luca going forward, where you worry about, you know, having to have, you know, it gets so bad you need some sort of hamstring

surgery or whatever might be. You got to be really, really careful. Players have, you know, Aaron Gordon, I think it was maybe the last year, two years ago, I forget, tried to play quickly on this. And, you know, I don't know. I can't, I'm not a doctor. I can't say for certain that one thing has led to another, but he is continuing to suffer from hamstring problems. And for a guy like Luca, whose game is predicated on starting, stopping, changing speeds, changing directions,

this is the type of injury that you have to be really careful with. So I think the Lakers are going to proceed. Obviously, he's not going to play the rest of the regular season. I think Lakers are probably going to proceed as if he is not going to play at all this season, period. And that is, I think, the source. smart way to do this. Luke is going to want to try to play,

but the Lakers shouldn't let him. You just, you have to balance this against not just his future, but the teams. And so over the next couple of weeks, we will get deeper into what it means for the Lakers

in the first round of the playoffs. Who are they going to play? It looks like, again, the Lakers still have an excellent chance to hold on to a three seed with five games left and what amounts to a two-game lead on Denver. The Lakers play three teams that are either tanking in the case of Dallas on Sunday and then Utah and trying very hard not to win. And then you also have the Golden State Warriors who just aren't that good, even with stuff coming back. They are just not that good. So you have that. You have another game against Oklahoma City and then you have a game against Phoenix. So one truly high-end team, a playoff caliber team in the Suns, you know, barely a play-in

team with Golden State, and then you have the two games against the tanking team. So after the break, next I want to talk a little bit about my thoughts on what could be coming with the Lakers, how likely they are to be able to thrive, who's got to step up, up what has to happen for the Lakers to find a little bit of success and perhaps defy the odds a little bit by the, you know, by the, by the end of the season. So we will do all of that coming up next. But first, I want to tell you that Fanduel is one of the sponsors of today's show. The tournament is here. One of the best times of the year. Brackets buzzer beaders upsets nonstop action from tip to the final cutdown. Right now.

Now, Fanduel is giving new customers a way to stay in the action all tournament long. Here's the best part. You get up to $300 back in bonus bets every day for 10 days. It means 10 chances to stay involved throughout the entire tournament. Perfect for the tournament because every day there's something new, different matchups, new storylines, more ways to get involved as the bracket unfolds. Visit fanduel.com to sign up today. That's fanduel.com to get in on the action.

Locked on Lakers is also brought to you by game. Game time, there's nothing like being in an NBA arena, the crowd, the energy in the moment. Getting tickets, though, has not always been so simple. And that's why game time has become the go-to app for scoring tickets fast. Without the hassle, it puts the advantage back where it belongs with the fans. We use in our house, game time a lot to go to MLS games. L.A.F.C. go to Galaxy. We'll do Angel City as well. Love the upfront pricing all in.

I know exactly what I'm paying. The kids get to see their seat views. So they can kind of choose in the arena where they want to go. in the stadium where they want to go sit. And if you're doing it for NBA tickets, obviously you can take advantage of all that stuff and get into the arena yourself. Take the guesswork out of buying NBA tickets with GameTime.

Download the GameTime app, create an account, use code Lockedon NBA for $20 off. Your first purchase, that's code L-O-C-E-D-O-N for $20 off. Download the GameTime app today. And remember, it's gamedom.com. Finally, Lockdown Liquors was brought to you by Robin Hood. What if Sports were traded like markets. you can put your sports IQ to work in real time with Robin Hood prediction markets.

It's not you against the house. It's you participating in a live market. You can buy or sell your positions live all game long. You use your sports knowledge in the moments that matter. Robin Hood prediction markets changes the game. It's people moving the action. So when momentum shifts, you can move with it. I always knew the game, but never had a dynamic way to apply that knowledge.

Now I can actually take part live in a market powered by people. no longer just a spectator, play-by-play, you decide, trade every play with Robin Hood, now available across the U.S. Download the Robin Hood app now to begin. Futures and cleared swaps trading involves significant risk and it's not appropriate for everyone. Event contracts are offered by Robin Hood derivatives, LLC, a registered futures commission, merchant and swap firm. So what happens now?

I mean, we'll set aside the obvious tremendous disappointment. for Lakers fans, for the Lakers themselves, who have been one of the best teams in the league over the last, you know, whatever it is, six weeks since they've gone on this run. Setting all that aside for a minute, you know, you can set aside the disappointment of Luca. I think last night's result of the game before the injury

kind of solidified the MVP race, or at the very least that Luca wasn't going to win, but the postseason award thing is an issue right now. Luca wouldn't qualify. There is a way for Luca to appeal this. His agent put out a statement today. The Lakers are that they'll be appealing. There's an extraordinary circumstances provision with the 65 game rule.

And the Lakers will say that Luca would have been able to play across that 65 game threshold, if not for the two games that he missed to fly to. Europe for the birth of his child. Those are games that he was healthy for, would have been able to play at least 20 minutes, certainly in one of them. I can't imagine that the league won't grant that petition, not just because it's, you know, the right thing. It's a reasonable application of that rule, but also because in this season where they have

lost so many players to that 65-game threshold and the backlash is so strong for how people are reacting to it. The idea that you're going to disqualify Luca after he suffers this injury with 64 games under his belt when he did have a perfectly plausible and reasonable explanation for why he missed two games, he actually got back pretty quickly from that trip, missed two games again to go to Europe for the birth of his child. I would be absolutely floored if the Lakers, or sorry, if the league does not give him that dispensation to be able to qualify for presumably first team all NBA. It is small consolation.

I'm sure Luca would trade first team all NBA for a chance to actually participate in playoffs and give the Lakers a deep run. But what he has done this season, as Agent Bill Duffy said the same thing, it deserves to be honored in that way. So it sucks that he's not going to be able to play. But at the very least, the body of work for the regular season, ought to be recognized. And again, I would be extraordinarily surprised

if the league does not grant him that waiver. So again, the Lakers have five games remaining. The primary thing they have to focus on, first and foremost, is health. They have to make sure that everybody who is potentially available is. There had been some talk that Marcus Smart, who has been out missed six games,

with an ankle injury could be on the floor as soon as Sunday against Dallas. That would obviously be a great sign. They need everybody. And they weren't going deep. Andy and I have talked about this a lot. They weren't going deep into the playoffs before any of this happened. Before any of this happened with Luca, they weren't going deep into the playoffs without Marcus Smart anyway.

Now they obviously need to have him. The defense, the ability to defend at a high level is going to be even more critical with no luka on the floor. So that's step one. Step two, Austin Reeves has to be healthy. He was holding on to his side, lower back kind of thing. He left the court briefly during Thursday's annihilation at the hands of the thunder. He did come back and finish the game,

but the Lakers are obviously going to have to make sure that he is fully healthy. It is much more important that the Lakers enter the playoffs with everybody that they have available, everybody and everybody. and then it is to say keep the three seed versus the four seed. Get what you get. Again, they're almost certain to open at home if they win at least one more game, and I think they will even without Luca. When you look ahead to the postseason,

there is obviously the hope that LeBron maybe has one more postseason of magic in him that this change in the way he's being used over the last couple of months will leave him with enough energy to perhaps put a team on his back to get through one more playoff series. That would be a great story, I think, to see that as an NBA fan, even if ultimately it doesn't amount to some sort of long run. down the playoffs to have that just into you know it's one series at a time at this point one game at a time at this point can lebron carry them through so that's that's one thing the real responsibility though and the the the player that everybody is going to be watching is austin reeves because we're now going into a season where austin is you know set for a major payday. He is going to expect to be paid like a front line star, $35, $40 million, whatever it's

going to turn out to be. If that's the case, then he needs to perform in this first round like a player who is worth $35, $40 million. He simply cannot afford to have, the Lakers cannot afford to have the kind of series that he had against Minnesota where it was a big struggle. And so that has to get better. Austin in games earlier this season, where his usage goes up in Luca's absence, his responsibility goes up in Luca's absence.

He has performed extremely well. Austin has played great when, you know, in those games, that stretch early in the season. I think it was November, December, and other games since them. Without Luca, Austin's been great. It's one thing to do that in the regular season. It's another thing to do that against a team like Minnesota, against a team like Houston, both of whom can be very strong defensively.

That said, it is an enormous opportunity for AR. It's an enormous opportunity for DeAndre Ait. His place on this team changes. He is no longer a guy that, you know, hustle, rebound, disrupt, block shots. They now need 14 to 18 a night from him, at least. So DeAndre Aitin's got to figure out Marcus Smart's going to have to be a bit more of a score. Somebody like Jake Lloyd. The Lakers got to find 35 points somewhere, 40, 45 on some nights.

Some of that's going to come from LeBron, more shots for LeBron. Some of that's going to come from Austin, more shots for Austin. but those two guys are not going to make up for the 35 points a night that Luca was providing. So somewhere down the roster, they got to find them. And I am not, again, I'm not willing to write off the rest of the season because Luke is hurt. I do think they have a chance to win in the first round. But obviously, the circumstances are significantly worse. It was not intentional for me to set up.

today's show in front of the wine and the bar cart. But it is probably what a lot of people are thinking right now. You're a Laker fan and you're over 21. You're probably thinking watching this show, oh, I could use some tequila or I could use a little bit of red. And I will not blame you for that. No judgments. but as you can see, I'm ready to go for the weekend to mourn this loss. And then we're going to get right back into it and try to figure out ways that the Lakers can keep on, keeping on.

Locked on Lakers on YouTube is where it can hang out with over 38,000 subscribers. I'll be back on barring any news in between. Be back after the game on Sunday. Andy will be gone. We've got a couple special guests lined up for Sunday and Monday. So make sure you are checking out the show. before then and we'll see everyone next time.