Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - Strong signs That Should Give the Lakers Confidence Vs. Timberwolves.

Starting point is 00:00:00 Hey, everyone, welcome to Lockdown Lakers for Tuesday, Brian Kaminetsky, Andy Kaminetsky. As the playoffs begin this weekend, the Lakers have developed one very important strength, and we will tell you what that is next. You are Locked on Lakers, your daily Los Angeles Lakers podcast, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. Thanks to everybody for making Locked on Lakers. First listen to every day, Monday through Friday, no matter how where you get your podcast, this one's always free.

Starting point is 00:00:37 never behind a paywall and locked on Lakers on YouTube as right and go hang out with over 34,000 subscribers, all of whom Andy are wondering what exactly this series is going to look like once it finally kicks off over the weekend, Saturday 530 in L.A. is the time for game one at the crypt. It's been a while since the city hosted a playoff game. And I think the atmosphere, to say the least, it's going to be bananas. It's also been a long time since the Lakers have hosted the first game of the playoffs on a Saturday. Like that is super unusual.

Starting point is 00:01:17 It's funny, you and I were both expecting the Lakers to open on Sunday because that's what they traditionally do. And then when the schedule came out and the Lakers were slated for Saturday, we realized that all of the three through six, four through five teams are playing on Saturday. and then all of the one and two seeds will be going up against their seven and eights because those teams all were part of the play-in. And we realized the Lakers opening their series of late on Sunday wasn't because of the tradition. It's because they've always been a play-in team. We kind of conflated the two together because it's the thing we had been used to. But in reality, it's because the Lakers in the play-in era have either been a play-in team

Starting point is 00:02:03 or miss the playoffs. So a nice shift, a good reason for a small change in tradition for this season. So a few things we want to break down over the course of the show. It did an interesting every week we do the Western Conference Squad show here on the network. A bunch of hosts from around the network today was sort of an all-playoff edition. So a lot of interesting questions and comments that came from that, that I think will relay. I think that show gets released at some point on Tuesday.

Starting point is 00:02:36 I'm not totally sure. But one of the things that we talked about for Monday, Andy, was trying to parse out the relative strengths of these teams because there isn't much head-to-head that's meaningful with this year. Three of the four games between the Wolves and the Lakers came before the Dantzich trade and therefore are meaningless. The fourth one was just a weird game because Luca didn't have his sea legs under him. He had a really bad game.

Starting point is 00:03:10 Rui got hurt. That was the game where he got hurt. And then on Minnesota's side, no Rudy Gaubert, no Julius Randall, and Ant got tossed. So, yes, the Lakers won, but harder draw lessons. So we looked a lot at things like net rating and all that. So not so much to take down the Lakers and say they're not as good, but to remind people that the wolves have actually been a very good team all season long, fourth best net rating in the league as a team for the season.

Starting point is 00:03:42 One of the things, though, that we didn't actually get to in terms of talking about, so I think we're going to, this was on our agenda for last week. We didn't quite get to it. The Lakers have maybe a lower net rating, but it's very possible, Andy, when you're looking for things to say that maybe the Lakers have an advantage here. one very important spot where they've been thriving. Their closing unit or the unit that JJ will be looking in most circumstances to close with,

Starting point is 00:04:13 LeBron James, Luke Donchich, Austin Reeves, Rui Hachemora, Dorian Finney Smith, they have been very good, both as an overall group. These are some numbers before the Houston game, although that game certainly wouldn't bring any of them down. But that group had had a plus 18.6 net rating at a 124.9 offensive rating through 13 games together. And then as a fourth quarter unit, and per Raj Cheapaloo over at Silver Screen and Roll,

Starting point is 00:04:50 great Lakers coverage, definitely check out his stuff, both with the site and online. This lineup has already played the four, most fourth quarter minutes for the Lakers between the injuries during this season, some of the roster movement, and then just JJ drilling down on a group that he likes, plus 22.5 in the fourth quarter for LeBron, Luca Reeves, Rui, DFS. Does that automatically mean that it's going to translate just as strongly, specifically against the Timberwolves?

Starting point is 00:05:26 no, but it gives you a lot of confidence heading into the series because that is really good work by a group that doesn't feel fluky succeeding like that. They make a lot of sense together as a group. Yeah, and I think that, you know, like that it's critical. And one of the things that I think is going to dictate this series is, you know, obviously, I didn't invent this idea. Late game execution is really important in the four, you know, in the playoffs. The Lakers had this horrible run against the Denver Nuggets in these relatively close games.

Starting point is 00:06:08 When they, you know, lose these series, was it, you know, nine games and they, I know we've repeated the numbers here a lot. They lost by a combined 50 points over two playoff series. Right. And, you know, eight, eight losses there. And, you know, seven of those games were reasonably close at some point halfway or beyond in the fourth quarter, sometimes much later than that. I described it. The Lakers had two games last year on Jamal Murray buzzer-beater and game winners. I mean, you can't get any closer than that.

Starting point is 00:06:42 What the Lakers had, and they often had leads, they blew them. Because what they had against Denver, what I kind of call a last mile problem, they could not get from three minutes to the end of the game. without bad things happening. So those last five minutes are going to be critical in every series and especially this one. So that is a place where you would expect the Lakers to thrive because they have LeBron, because they have Luca, because they have AR. And then when you mix in the fact that that group has been so good, that's a place where you look at and say, okay.

Starting point is 00:07:24 advantage Lakers for sure. I mean, LeBron and Luca are two of the best choices any team would ever want for crunch time minutes and offensively being able to control the action. You have two of the best options on the same team. You could make an argument they are the two best options in the entire playoffs in terms of dictating offense controlling the action. And if you don't think they're the top two, they are certainly. certainly two members of a very short list.

Starting point is 00:07:58 And in bringing in Luca, you have a better crunch time orchestrator and facilitator than DeAngelo Russell last season, because that's really who Luca is replacing along those lines. And then Austin Reeves is both better now than he was last season at it and because he's now the third facilitator in this group. The bar for him isn't even as high in a lot of ways as it was last season, even though he's actually better at it this year than he was last year. And then you combine a guy like DFS, who is a proven three-point shooter, proven guy in big games, and that Rui this year is better than he was last year. Like I think, you know, The improvement of Austin and Jackson Hayes in a lot of ways, I think, has overshadowed just how much I think Rui has improved this season.

Starting point is 00:09:02 So all of that, again, I think bodes very well for the Lakers moving forward in this series. Yeah. And look, I mean, there are some people on the YouTube channel who are really annoyed, I think, with us. because we spent a lot of the segment, you know, segment, segment a half, noting that the Timberwolves are good. I mean, you know, one person said we had fear, too much fear in our voices. You know, and we were projecting too much fear. We said at some point during the show that once we kind of come up with our predictions,

Starting point is 00:09:41 we're already both planning to pick the Lakers to win the series. I mean, the wolves are good, folks. That's just how it is. Now, I think the Lakers can elevate and possibly make this a quick series. It's going to be a longer one. I do have another number, though, as long as we're breaking these things down, that also indicates that perhaps the Lakers have a bit more of an advantage than some of the advanced data might suggest.

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Starting point is 00:11:29 Use the code Lockdown MBA. That's HungryRoot.com slash Lockdown MBA code Lockdown NBA for 40% off and a lifetime free item. So before we get to those fancy numbers, Andy, we have mentioned the Lockdown Lakers newsletter. It's a way to keep up without just with the show, but what's happening around the league, especially important as we get into the playoffs. Great analysis from us five days a week, Monday through Friday, but it also comes with input and analysis from around the network. So you get all the input from other great hosts and from our writers as well.

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Starting point is 00:13:25 if you break down... Stop projecting fear. here, Brian. I know. Owen Phillips. Why are you cowering in the corner? Why in the fetal position? He writes a newsletter about data in the NBA called the F5. I don't know who he is, but he has a great table that's making its way around social media today. And it includes the records against teams based on net rating. So your record against the top 10, the middle 10, and the bottom 10. The Lakers are 19 and 13 against teams in the top 10 in net rating. Minnesota is 14 and 14. Not the same amount of games. Nobody plays the same schedule, all that stuff. I didn't break this down to

Starting point is 00:14:12 find out when they played some of the teams who was hurt, who was not, whatever. But shorthand here, the Lakers stronger against the better teams in league, where the wolves, have really thrived. They are 22 and 7 when they play teams in the bottom 10 in net rating, and they were 13 and 12 against teams in the middle 10. The Lakers were 21 and 8, very similar against the bottom teams and actually played rather poorly, 10 and 11 against the middle 10. But what matters is kind of how, at this point, is how you show up against the good teams.

Starting point is 00:14:49 And the Lakers not only were good against, better against, the best teams than Minnesota was. They were better against the best teams than Minnesota, and they were especially good down the stretch against those teams. Like the Lakers' record post-Luca against the best teams is really good. We talked about this a lot over the course of the season for better or for worse and in ways that sometimes led to pounding your head against the wall, the Lakers sometimes saved their best for the best, and there would be times where it felt like, what, if they just would apply that same focus, they could have a better record and put away some of these bottom feeders of the league and for whatever reason.

Starting point is 00:15:33 They made, they were the three seed anyway. So what they did work. They could have been two seed. They could have just been a night to night more consistently pleasurable experience over the course of 82 games or at minimum until Luca arrived, whichever piece of, that schedule you want to prioritize. But the point being, this was a habit of the Lakers that often led fans and us to worry about things coming back to bite them in the ass.

Starting point is 00:16:06 I guess now that they are the three seed and their ass is intact, you can just look at this. It is unbitten. No, no, they got two cheeks looking lovely right now. So you can just view these stats as pure reassurance as opposed to. Well, then why the bleep didn't you just do that all year? But either way, it does bode well to the actual task at hand in the playoffs. I, you know, we did, I mentioned that we did this show earlier in the day, tape the show, the squad show.

Starting point is 00:16:40 And seven of us at one point or another were on this, we're on this recording. The question came up. Who was, you know, who do you pick it in this series? All seven hands. went up for the Lakers. And I'm not surprised. I expect when, you know, we get all the, you know, when you start to,

Starting point is 00:17:02 you see the charts of who everybody ESPN is picking, who everybody here is picking, like that the Lakers will be the favorites in the series. They should. I was a little surprised that nobody picked Minnesota. None of nobody in seven. Yeah, you know, most media types are. Somebody always wants to be the contrarian.

Starting point is 00:17:20 I mean, heck, Matt Moore was on this thing. So I can you know, to whatever the wisdom of crowds is worth, I mean, I guess the Lakers fans who thought we sound too scurred yesterday, maybe they have a point. Again, Skird was just acknowledging that the wolves don't suck. I mean, and pointing out some of the areas that if nothing else, they're going to test the Lakers. The wolves are a very good test for how much will the Lakers' lack of conventional size matter in a series because Minnesota is one of the biggest teams that they will face in the playoffs. Just definitionally, you know, it could be something the Lakers have to contend with and at times causes them problems, but they still end up winning the series in six. Like you can sometimes control an entire series while still having to navigate issues that present trickiness. Like all of these things can be true at once.

Starting point is 00:18:26 It's very rare for a team to pull a 2001 Lakers where they lost one game on a championship run. Right. You know, the Moses Malone. Is it Moses Malone foe, foe, foe, foe? Yeah, yeah. I mean, the Lakers that year went 15 and 1 because back then the opening round was best of five. Like, they didn't lose a game until the Allen Iverson stepover in the finals against Philly. And that team was awesome.

Starting point is 00:19:01 But so are the other championship teams of the Lakers or any other franchise that, you know what, lost some games along the way to winning a championship. Like, that is normal. And typically you don't play a 50. win team. If you're the three seed, you typically do not play a 50 win team, which I'm going to go ahead and round up for Minnesota. That's what they are. Basically, three through eight in the conference are essentially 50 win team. I mean, Memphis, and think how bad Memphis had to play over the last month to not quite get to 50 because they were on track for a lot of the year. Taylor Jenkins knows. Yeah. So like when you when you start to look at these things, it's like this is not a typical first round series. And I'm going to do TV. We have Spectrum Sportsnet here in LA. I'm going to go do that on Monday after we're done recording this. And one of the things we're talking about is like how do you contain Anthony Edwards? Okay. Well, one of the things to your point, Andy, that might be really hard for the Lakers is putting a lid on ant. my thinking about this is, well, you know what, you don't need to put a lid on Ant to win the series.

Starting point is 00:20:17 Ant can go off and have a great series. We've heard Stephen A. Smith talking about it on Monday afternoon, challenging Anthony Edwards to put up huge numbers. He can do that. For my point of view, it's making sure that when Ant goes off, Julius Randall doesn't also have 28. Like, that's going to get you in trouble. And so you could look at this at the end of the series.

Starting point is 00:20:42 It said, Lakers had this weakness. They couldn't control Anthony Edwards. But they might win the series in five or six games or seven games anyway. To your point, it never aligns completely when you're talking about essentially two 50 win teams that one team is going to be able to counter every strength of the other team. It's just a matter of which team can mitigate their weaknesses more relative the other one. Lakers made an interesting choice with the backup center position going into this series. We'll tell you what it is next. Locked on Lakers is brought to you by Open Phone.

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Starting point is 00:22:43 not to give away the entire show that we we wanted to talk about a little bit from monday we didn't get to was the draw the general draw it's not there is no easy don't give me wrong there's no easy path to the finals i'm of the opinion though that this was about as well as it could be set up for the lakers as possible i'll explain why tell me if you think i'm wrong we both agreed obviously the best benefit to finishing two and three you you stay on the other side of the bracket of Oklahoma City. Best team in the conference. Lakers won 50 games.

Starting point is 00:23:19 They were 16, 17 games behind Oklahoma City by the end of the year. 18 games, I think it was, 19. You don't want to play them any earlier than you have to. Right. To be clear, that's not being afraid of Oklahoma City. That's just being pragmatic about this. You don't want to play the best team until you have to play the best team. Right. Maybe they lose.

Starting point is 00:23:39 And by the way, if the best team, If the Lakers turn out to be the best team in the West, and they are certainly on the short list of teams that could be the best, I imagine the Thunder would like to wait as long as they can before facing the Lakers. Certainly, considering the last two games they played against the Thunder, one in which they kicked the crap out of them, and another one in which they made a comeback were up one, and then Luca experienced the most egregious ejection of like the last five to ten years.

Starting point is 00:24:11 So, I mean, I doubt the thunder are looking to play the Lakers anytime soon either. So this cuts both ways. I think that's fair. And then from there, I would say, so that's number one, number two. My team that I find most threatening other than the thunder, just based on their record and their performance this year, are the clippers. And, you know, with Zubots in the middle, and then obviously, you know, Harden, Kauai, Norman Powell, and just good depth down that roster. It's the way they're playing going into the playoffs.

Starting point is 00:24:49 I think that's a scary matchup. I would not want to have to play both the Clippers and the Thunder, potentially to get to a Western Conference final. That's a lot. Third, by the way that it's shaked out, Golden State has a chance to take out Houston. One of two things is going to happen. Either the Rockets win and Golden State's gone. A lot of people think Golden State's a dangerous opponent.

Starting point is 00:25:17 And now you, you know, I think a lot of people do overall, though consider Houston to be certainly the weakest of the four top seeds in the West, you know, three or four, you know, people don't believe in them yet. They're the least proven if nothing else. So there's part of that. But then if Golden State beats Houston, that means the Lakers host the second round. So yes, you in theory have a more difficult opponent.

Starting point is 00:25:46 I'm not 100% sold on that, but you have a more difficult opponent in theory, but now you've regained home court advantage. So that's about as in a conference this difficult, to me, that's about as good of a blueprint as you could possibly get. I mean, I get, you know, I guess if you on balance,

Starting point is 00:26:09 fear Golden State more than Memphis. The hope would be that Memphis just has one really good game against Golden State for 8-7. They become the seven seed. And then you are assuming you advanced, dealing with either the Rockets or Memphis, two teams that I think most people think on balance are less threatening than Golden State.

Starting point is 00:26:34 And I was basing a lot of this on the assumption that Golden State's going to win that game. But that is not necessarily what's going to. I'm just trying to come up with the most ideal draws possible. Right. No, right. And that would be better. I think sort of work,

Starting point is 00:26:53 I was working with the assumption. But you're right. It would be even better if. But, you know, so I, this draw kind of worked out. It's hard to say that, you know, you're playing a potential of 48 win team, a 49 win team followed by, I think, did Golden State finish for 48, I think.

Starting point is 00:27:11 So it's not easy. It finished with 48. Yeah, it's not going to be easy. Is that 7-8 game, where is it? 7-8 game is in the Bay Area. Yeah, so it's in San Francisco. So that's what I thought. Again, the assumption is that I think a lot of people think Memphis might not even get in entirely,

Starting point is 00:27:32 that they could lose twice. Just given how they've been playing of late, I would expect them to make it in, but we'll see. So anyway, I just, I wanted, because we didn't get a chance to talk about that, wanted to throw that out there. And then before we go, we did talk on Monday about what the Lakers are doing at center. I was a little surprised. We thought a move was coming to convert either Christian Coloco or Trey Jemison,

Starting point is 00:27:59 the third to a standard contract for the playoffs, and then you'd release Alex Lenn. the Lakers are sticking with Lens sanity, Andy. Well, I mean. Is it Lens sanity to stick with Lens sanity? I mean, fouling out in 19 minutes, you can't put a price on that. Apparently you can.

Starting point is 00:28:20 What are they giving? I guess so. Pro-weighted minimum or something. Yeah, we were both unsure whether or not the Lakers had to officially do this before game time versus Portland or before 1159 on the 13th. But at this point, it doesn't matter what the exacts were because they have not converted Len, I mean, they have not converted Christian Gloco or Trey Jemison the third.

Starting point is 00:28:48 So Alex Len is here to stay. Like in the grand scheme of things, this would not qualify as a massive mistake just because if it ever becomes important enough to matter that much, it means so much. has gone sideways for the Lakers. Who cares? But I will say this, assuming they like Coloco at all big picture or even sort of interested in unless they've had a long talk with Rich Paul because Christian Coloco is a clutch client and they're just like, look, they do know how to get a hold of him.

Starting point is 00:29:26 Yeah. Just look, we like Christian. We'd like him to be a part of the future. we plan on bringing him back this off season. We just experience yada yada. We really just literally a bigger body. Right. Unless it is that, I would have converted Koloko just between making sure he's under contract for next season and for what it's worth,

Starting point is 00:29:50 I like Coloco. I like his upside. Trey Jemison III is already under contract for next year, two-way contract. But also, I just think Coloco is better than Alex Len. Like whatever Len offers in superior size and experienced in Coloco, he offsets it, in my opinion, by being a worse player. Yeah. And he is, he looks more villainous. Oh, look, if they're just afraid to cut Alex Len, I don't blame him.

Starting point is 00:30:23 Like, he's seven foot like 250 and looks scary. It's like just nobody's got the nards to tell him he's gone. There are rumors of a John Wick five. You know, we all saw Boban got a role. Maybe the Lakers want to have a guy that can be in one of those movies. He's more intimidating. I think it's probably a size and experience thing. I agree with you because regardless of who they brought on,

Starting point is 00:30:53 the first solution to, oh, no, Jackson Hayes is hurt, would not be start either one of the, of those guys. They would just not start a center. None of them are likely to play at all unless you absolutely have to. But if you absolutely have to, I'd rather play the guy that's better. I think Coloco's just better than I think he is. So I was a little surprised. I don't think this means a good game against Portland. Yeah. I don't think this means the end of Christian Coloco with Lakers. I do think they'll probably, I don't, I don't know. know exactly i'll be i'd lying if i said i totally understood the mechanics of when two ways expire when

Starting point is 00:31:36 you can bring us back rights things like that or whatever i i think they will try to bring him back on another two way next year um like a developmental type contract um maybe he escalates to you know a regular roster spot i don't know but i was a little surprised i agree with you i think this i agree with you it's not anything anybody needs i think it was one of these things too it was just we all kind of assumed it was going to happen in the same way that it happened with Jordan Goodwin, although I guess the time it took for it to happen might have been some sort of indicator. I mean, with Goodwin, the expectation was just he's in the rotation. Like if you're not going to convert Goodwin, like putting aside what the hell not for? There's also then the

Starting point is 00:32:25 question of then why have you been playing him at all? Like you'd be better. off playing whoever it is that you think will be in the rotation in the playoffs or shrinking the rotation or whatever, but it makes no sense to play Jordan Goodwin 15 to 20 minutes a night if you're not going to make them postseason eligible. Yeah, I agree. So in that sense, it was automatic for Goodwin. I just, it is not a massive, massive deal, but I'd be lying if I said, I get it. I don't get it at all. Yeah, maybe someone can get an explanation for that. Locked on Lakers and YouTube is where you can go hang out with over 34,000 subscribers to the channel.

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Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - Strong signs That Should Give the Lakers Confidence Vs. Timberwolves.

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