Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - The Lakers to Face Minnesota in the 1st Round of the NBA Playoffs: A Tough Series Awaits??

Starting point is 00:00:00 Hey, everyone, welcome to Locked on Lakers for Monday. Brian Komeneski, Andy Komeneski, Sunday was all about finding out who the Lakers are going to play in the first round. And now we know it's the Minnesota Timberwolves and what should be a very entertaining and very difficult first round matchup. We'll break down next. You are Locked on Lakers. Your daily Los Angeles Lakers podcast. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network. Your team every day.

Starting point is 00:00:32 Thanks to everybody for making Locked on Lakers. First listen to every day. Friday, no matter how Rakeach podcast. This one's always free. Never behind paywall. Locked on Lakers on YouTube is where over 34,000 subscribers, Andy, are all excited to get to the point. The Lakers now know who their first round opponent is going to be following Sunday's game.

Starting point is 00:00:51 Technically speaking, the Lakers did play a game on Sunday, but it was a meaningless 109-81 loss of the Blazers because the Lakers were locked into the three-seed. They were waiting to see who would be the six, and we now know it is the Minnesota Timberwolves. So plenty of initial thoughts about this series coming up in a moment. Do want to let people know that today's episode is brought to you by Fandual. Right now, new customers get $250 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins.

Starting point is 00:01:21 Andy, I'm not going to lie to you or to our audience. I spent a lot more time focused on the Warriors Clippers game than I did on the Lakers Blazers game on Sunday. That game was both better against the Warriors and Clippers. It's actually a terrific game. Went to overtime before the Clippers eventually won, which played a role in the wolves ending up the Lakers opponent, which was in part why both of us were spending some time watching that game. Also, you know, the stakes whenever the Lakers are starting,

Starting point is 00:01:55 Bronny, Jake Milton, Dalton Connect, Keith, who was probably pissed off. He had to stretch before a game. and Alex Len, not exactly high stakes for the Lakers. I mean, for anybody interested in anything that happened in the game, it's a rough shooting and scoring afternoon for Brani, four points on two of ten shooting and three turnovers, but he did have four steals, six assists,

Starting point is 00:02:19 three of which came on back-to-back-to-back possessions, both setting up guys inside and out. So that was something nice for Brony. shake Milton had a few possessions pretty close to in succession where he actually scored around the rim as opposed to putting up jump shots. So, you know, in terms of looking for different things from shake, that was nice. In the sake of fairness, Alex Lenn had an excellent touch pass from under the basket, setting up Dalton Connect for a layup. Coloco had eight boards and five blocks in 19 minutes. he was the bright spot of the three backup centers.

Starting point is 00:03:00 Alex Len, I believe, filed out in 19 minutes. He very much understood the assignment. And I don't know, I don't actually have clarification, Brian. This actually matters leading up to the playoff discussion. I don't know when the actual deadline for the Lakers converting either Coloco or Jemison is. I know it is the 13th, but I don't know if it's like by, you know, 1159 or the end of the game. I've been looking around and can't find.

Starting point is 00:03:32 I think at some point on Sunday, the Lakers, like Monday we should know what the Lakers have done. Yeah. Oh, Monday for sure. I just meant it. It's one of these things, like, regardless of what they do, and we'll move on after this,

Starting point is 00:03:45 because the game itself just isn't worth too much time. That's my entire game breakdown. Yeah, that was a good. The, you know, what the Lakers do at that backup center position, is still only going to be relevant in total emergencies because whether they decide to keep Lenn on the roster or convert Coloco, convert Jemison, and then cut presumably Lenn,

Starting point is 00:04:10 that will only matter in emergencies because none of those guys are going to play. If any of those guys play, it probably means something has gone wrong or very situational stuff specific to Minnesota. But it's one of those things that if it matters, might be a little bit time to worry.

Starting point is 00:04:30 We'll get to the backup center stuff here later, but like, I got an email from a friend of mine or a text, I should say, from a friend of mine who is like, who do you want them to play? Like, which is a better opponent? The warriors or the timber wolves. And I can be honest, like,

Starting point is 00:04:46 it took me a second to come up with an answer because I think while the conventional wisdom, especially based on how well Golden State has played over the last month, or they kind of stumbled down the stretch a little bit. Since acquiring Jimmy Butler, the Warriors have been outstanding. I think Minnesota has gone a little bit under the radar. When you start breaking down some of the numbers, I'm sure you've seen them, we'll get into them in this episode,

Starting point is 00:05:15 certainly throughout the week. Minnesota is a very good team, and I think they've been slept on a little bit because they haven't been as dominant as they were last year, given all the, the upheaval with the big trade of cat before the season started and all that. They've never really gotten on track in the way people thought they should, but at the same time, they are a very good team. They won 49 games. The Lakers won 50. So even if you want to say that the Lakers, you know, there are essentially two different teams and you've got to disregard a lot of what took place in the first half. And I actually think that's true. A lot can be said along those same lines with

Starting point is 00:05:54 the Timberwolves because they, between the injuries that they've gone through and having to figure out the best ways to incorporate Dante Debenchonzo and especially Julius Randall, who is a, he is not, I like Julius a lot. He is not, I think, overall as good a player as cat, but more than he is not as clean a fit with cat as cat was with the wolves either. So when you consider that with all of those caveats, the wolves still, managed to win 49 games in a very competitive Western conference. It speaks to like what you were saying. They're a good team. I also think, and this gets, I guess, to the backup center question sort of overarching. I think they're an interesting first round test for the Lakers, among many reasons, just because they're a very big team.

Starting point is 00:06:46 They are a big team with a lot of length, a lot of size. I think they are bigger than the Lakers, in the aggregate, even if, like we've talked about, the Lakers are not a small team by any stretch. And I think to whatever degree, the size of the Lakers, you know, really just having one playable center, to whatever degree that much matters, I think is going to be tested by the wolves as much or more than maybe any other team in the West, other than I guess maybe Denver, depending on how much you think Yokic can do damage just by himself? Or, you know, Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren with OKC. But Minnesota is perhaps the biggest team in the West,

Starting point is 00:07:36 certainly among the playoff team. So in that sense, it's a very interesting sort of lab experiment right off the bat for the Lakers. And, you know, you look at it. The Lakers and Wolves played one time in the post-trane. trade period of the season. We're obviously talking about the Lucca Dantian trade. It was a 111-102 Lakers win at home. And that, I guess, you could sort of try to draw some inferences from it.

Starting point is 00:08:10 But to your point, Andy, Julius Randall didn't play in that game. And Rudy Gobert didn't play in that game. And while... And Anthony Edwards got ejected. Right. Anthony Edwards got ejected. And so while... that, you know, he played 26 minutes, but he didn't play his full regular load.

Starting point is 00:08:29 And so, you know, when you look at the players who didn't play, it be, I think you got to throw that one out too. And the, you know, like you say, the hard thing about the timber wolves is that not just they have a lot of size. They have a lot of size that kind of behave in different ways. Rudy Gobert is not necessarily a dynamic score, although you really do need to pay attention to what he's doing around the rim. He can surprise you with 26 just on dunks and putbacks and all these other things. He's an enormous human being with an incredible potential for offensive rebounding and stuff and, you know, finishing lobs and whatever.

Starting point is 00:09:04 But then you also have a very dynamic score and three point shooter in Nas Reed. And so I, like I said, I don't, I don't envy the Lakers for any of the teams that they had to play. Like you say, they won one more game over the course of the season than the Timberwolves did. think people are going to look at this as like the warm up for the Lakers in the first round before the Warriors or something in the second. I'm not convinced the Warriors are getting through either. But the Western Conference. Warriors got to win their playing before they even start thinking about.

Starting point is 00:09:37 I mean, right. I assume they will. But, you know, I do think them being dumped in the play in hurts. And, you know, the Rockets are not a pushover team. They're going to be rested at home, all this other stuff. The whole Western Conference could be completely. completely, you know, in upheaval by the time the second round of the playoff comes around. Some numbers about why we both think Minnesota is such a strong and formidable opponent for the Lakers.

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Starting point is 00:12:45 They finish the season at 9th. They are a top 10 defense. They finish the season at 7th. If you're a net rating guy, Andy, and I know you are, the Minnesota Timberwolves were fourth. You've got a back tap that says net rating. You got to be real hardcore for the NBA, but the stack guys love it. Yeah, but it gets me a lot of ladies at Sloan.

Starting point is 00:13:10 Slatees. I hope my wife isn't watching. You know, she canceled that trip anytime. The Minnesota Timberwell's fourth. It also wins her over and she doesn't even know what it means. She just thinks it's hot. Minnesota Timberwell's fifth, or sorry, fourth in net rating over the course of the full season. So Andy, even with all of that upheaval

Starting point is 00:13:30 that you were talking about and the injuries and guys in and out of the lineup and all this stuff, they still finished fourth in the NBA in net rating. So if you believe in the stuff of the Lakers, by the way, again, it's hard to judge them by what anything post, you know, that happened before the trade. Lakers were 14th. Lakers were 14th in defensive rating. Lakers were 11th in offensive rating over the course of the season. Minnesota is really good. Yeah, I'd be more interested, and I don't have it in front of me,

Starting point is 00:14:01 but their net rating and offensive, defensive rating after the All-Star break. Right, the Lakers were 17th in offense post-all-Star break, and 17th in defense, and 15th in net rating. Yeah. As far as looking over the Minnesota offense,

Starting point is 00:14:21 we were going to talk with people who know the team better than we do over the course of the week. I know we're going to talk with Ben Beacon from Locked on Wolves and try track down someone like John Krasinski, who's, I think the best, he's the best at covering the wolves, one of the best at covering any team in the NBA people like that. But a couple things that jumped out at me, their offense is really predicated on three-point shooting. Like they are, it's much better outside their offense than inside. The two-point percentage as a team is slightly below average. But their fifth in the league for three-point attempts,

Starting point is 00:14:53 It's just under 40 a game. They shoot as a team around 38%, which is good. They got a lot of guys shooting well on volume from three. Anthony Edwards is 39.5% from behind the arc on 10.5 3 is a game. Dante DiFenzo, just under 40% on 7 a game. Nasree, 38% on 6 a game. Nikiel Alexander Walker, 38% on 4.5 a game. Mike Conley, 41% on about 4.5 a game.

Starting point is 00:15:19 The only less effective guys who shoot, on any volume from behind the arc are Julius Randall and Jaden McDaniels. The Lakers, for their part, allow since the All-Star break teams to hit 36% from deep, which is about middle of the pack. So guarding the arc could be something that swings the series for the Lakers. I also mentioned how the wolves are not a great team from inside the arc. This is a weird thing about them. They're eighth in the league for second chance points, despite being kind of a mid for offensive rebounds per game and offensive rebounding rate. So they're not, for a team as big as they are, they're not great on the glass.

Starting point is 00:16:02 They're not terrible, but they're not great either. But they are clearly very opportunistic when they do get offensive rebounds. They're third in the league for points per possession for putbacks, third in the league for overall percentile with putbacks. And this can be an issue for the Lakers, both preventing offensive rebounds, but also just you got to be aware, you got to reset when a team gets those second chance opportunities. And the Lakers are going to have to be really aware if Minnesota gets an offensive rebound near the basket because they're really good in that area and also in all likelihood bigger than

Starting point is 00:16:37 the Lakers around the rim. That being said, they are not particularly good at scoring in the paint. They're lower third in the league. It's really, so if nothing else, that can be interesting just for the Lakers with lack of true rim protection, how much that matters. But they're going to really have to be careful with offensive rebounds around the rim because that's somewhere where Minnesota actually has been very good, despite not being great in those areas I mentioned offensively.

Starting point is 00:17:08 Yeah. I mean, it's, I'm really curious where, you know, the wolves are a, you know, bottom, you know, we'll call it bottom of the top third as a, you know, in terms of rebounding rate defensively, the kind of same sort of, basically the same spot in offensive rebounding. Like so, but again,

Starting point is 00:17:29 Lakers have unique potential deficiencies in those areas. I'm really curious where people put these teams, like when you see these first round predictions and stuff like that, I think from a popular standpoint, there's like, oh, like I said in the first segment, like, the Luca Lakers,

Starting point is 00:17:46 like this is their, their warm up or something like that. I wouldn't really, I think a lot of that is just based on the star power of Luca and LeBron and Reeves playing the way they have. I'm going to, I mean, I haven't come up with official prediction yet, but I'm, especially since they're playing at home, picking the Lakers, going to pick the Lakers to win this series. So will I. But I don't, I don't think it's going to be shorter than six. I think it's a six or seven game series. These are really evenly matched teams.

Starting point is 00:18:24 And I think what we're going to see with the Lakers, the other thing, probably too, that affects what people are thinking. Luca, it should be noted, torched Minnesota in the point. You mentioned that. I've got those numbers in front of me. So we'll hold on to that and get that in the third segment. But part of the reason I think that the Lakers might be seen as this prohibited favorite is because of what Luca did to the wolves in the playoffs

Starting point is 00:18:52 last year, but he did it to them with a different team, you know, in a different situation against the different team. You know, so like, you know, Minnesota doesn't look the same way as they do now. They've got some different players and all that kind of stuff. I don't know if you can 100% draw because he did that last year is what he's going to do this year. This is to me a very tight series with very competitive teams. And like most playoff matchups, it's going to be matchups rule. And we just don't know that much about how the Lakers match up with a lot of these teams because there's not much sample size with the Luka

Starting point is 00:19:39 Lakers. And even the one game we have from this season with Luca, you mentioned in the first segment, all the guys missing on Minnesota, Luca was still kind of getting his feet under. He had a pretty bad game. He did have a bad game. Rui got injured during that game as well. Right. He was six for 20. I just don't know if there was much to take from that game either. So when we come back, though, you reacted to that Luca playoff thing from last year. You've got the numbers. Curious how much that matters. AJ Raddock and the coaching staff certainly think it does. We'll get to it next.

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Starting point is 00:21:13 Andy, we know that people subscribe to the show. with Spotify or iTunes. A lot of places, people get their podcasts there. People do it through the YouTube channel, as we like to mention. But you can also get the Locked on Lakers newsletter. And right now, the Locked on Lakers, we are ready for playoff basketball. We've got you covered every step of the way. If you subscribe to the Locked on Lakers podcast newsletter for expert analysis,

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Starting point is 00:22:19 So I do like, I'd be honest with you. I've seen enough of Luca Dantritch to be very comforted by the notion of first that he seems to really not like Rudy Gaubert and plays very well against people and teams he doesn't like and has this history of success in the postseason with the wolves. He is absolutely going to be looking to destroy Rudy Gobert. I mean, Luke has got a grudge list that seems to be pretty long and continually being added to. But Rudy Gobert seems like he is going to remain on Luca Donchich's Mount Rushmore of hatred for the rest of his or

Starting point is 00:23:11 Rudy's career, whichever lasts longer, or just however, maybe even overseas, however long the two of them are going to keep playing basketball against each other, Luca clearly despises Rudy Gobert, which, by the way, puts him in company with most of the league. You mentioned how Luca during this February game against the Timberwolves really was not himself, 21 points, of 6 to 20 shooting. He was the only starter in that game who was not a plus in the plus minus column. It was during February where he was shooting 37% from the field, 24% from behind the arc. He didn't have a single game in that month at 50% from the field.

Starting point is 00:23:53 He had more games below 20% from behind the arc than above. But that ain't Luca now. Over the last 10 games, Luca has been averaging almost 30 points a game on 49, 41, 81 splits, plus seven rebounds, seven assists in a steal. In the last five games, he has scored 35 plus on incredible efficiency. In particular, he has been destroying first quarters, like just dominating him, nine points per game in first quarters of the last 10,

Starting point is 00:24:27 13 and a half in the last five on 50% plus from the field and behind the arc. So a lot of things are different, but one of them includes Luke. You mentioned also last year's Western Conference finals were Dallas 1 and 5. Luca averaged in that series about 32, 10, and 8 on 47, 43, 85 splits. Nearly eight trips to the line. Real quick, I'm new. Is that good? That's very good.

Starting point is 00:24:57 That is very good. I also have that as part of my back tat. You knew this trade was coming that you had Lucas splits against the, wolves in last year's playoffs, tatted on your back before the trade even happened. I know an aphrodisiac when I see one. But the other thing that I think is important to remember is as much as the wolves are a different team this year, I think defensively, in terms of the guys that they're going to be throwing at Luca, it's pretty similar to last year. Like Dande Divenchino is new and he'll be game for that matchup, but he's too small.

Starting point is 00:25:33 Like Luca is going to be able to push him around. Julius Randall is strong enough to deal with Luca, but I don't think he's quick enough. And frankly, I don't think he's a good enough defender. So I think a lot of the changes with Minnesota from last year to this year, at least in terms of Luca, maybe not overall for every player on both sides of the ball, but in terms of how the wolves will deal with Luca, I'm inclined to say that it's going to be pretty similar in terms of strategy. I obviously can't say the outcome's going to be the same. But at least, on paper and maybe we'll ask people who cover the team see if they disagree. That piece of it doesn't feel that much different to me, which obviously given those numbers

Starting point is 00:26:16 is pretty damn reassuring. It is. And, you know, I think it just becomes a question of how the Lakers as a group deal with some of those potential size questions. They're going to have other than I guess maybe Golden State, like every team is going to present them with some level of size issue. But we've seen them play Oklahoma City very well. We've seen them play against big teams.

Starting point is 00:26:40 It's just that oftentimes you're trying to counter a scoring center. Like Gobert's a little different. And like what the Lakers have a lot of potential to put Gobert in some very uncomfortable situations defensively, where he's he's better in space and he gets credit for in this notion of like Rudy always gets played off the floor in the playoffs is wildly overcooked. But the Lakers can make him uncomfortable. And I am sure that JJ Redick and the staff who have been starting this scouting process already will be going deep into that. One of the things that I will say is almost a counter to what I was saying before is like playoffs are based on matchups. But the other thing about it is it's also kind of a talent thing.

Starting point is 00:27:29 and if you were having a draft of the teams of all of these teams, you create whatever team you want out of all these rosters, who would be the first pick? It would be Luca. Who would be the second pick? LeBron. LeBron. LeBron or aunt?

Starting point is 00:27:48 I think LeBron just because he has a better overall track record in the playoffs, he's LeBron. I think if LeBron's available, after Luca's been taken, even if you can make rational arguments for taking aunt, it's just going to feel weird leaving LeBron on the board. No question, but let's just say you do. He's clearly the third guy off the board.

Starting point is 00:28:13 Absolutely. Who's the fourth? Austin. I think so too. So if you have three of the best four players in a series, doesn't that count for something? I mean, like, I understand the matchups can be very challenging and all this other stuff.

Starting point is 00:28:30 Like that's, and they're all playing well, which they are going to be, they're all going to be rested, they're all playing well. Lakers have all this confidence, smart coaching staff, you know, stars that know the opponent and all that says. I don't want to overthink this with the idea of like,

Starting point is 00:28:47 I don't want to be dismissive of Minnesota, but I also don't know. At all. I mean, again, fourth in the NBA this year. But, man, Ant is good enough. Like, whether you think he's, He's the second best player in this series, third best, whatever, and is good enough to win you a game, maybe two games by himself. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:29:06 And you want to talk about dudes who are not going to be afraid of the moment? That list includes Anthony Edwards. And honestly, a lot of this comes down to, to me, the Lakers get to play four games at home. And they've been so good in their own building and have improved steadily on the road over the course of the year. So, like, if they need a road win, I believe they can certainly get it.

Starting point is 00:29:29 And they have guys who are not going to be scared to go into another team's arena. That's the other part of it. This, by the way, is a thing that is going to sustain the Lakers through a few rounds. I think maybe when you get to Oklahoma City, it's the sheer volume of good players that OKC has

Starting point is 00:29:49 maybe changes that math a little bit. But in this one in particular, I thought about it too. I'm like, they have three of the best four players in the series, I think. I think they likely do. Minnesota, for what it's worth, and I think it matters a lot, they've been very good on the road. So while I do believe in that Lakers home court advantage, because they really have been one of the best home teams in the league, I think often against Western Conference opponents. The wolves have been a good road team.

Starting point is 00:30:18 So you can't. Minnesota, for people that don't know, 24 and 17 on the road, which is good, which as you say, quite good. Yes, it's quite a good record. What I think is interesting, though, when we were laying out the list of, you know, who would you take first, who would you take second, third, fourth? And I said, Austin, I think is the fourth best player. It's not just that Austin over the last couple months has been playing extremely well. I mean, I'm the guy who had been very vocal in my concerns about whether or not he could reach this level.

Starting point is 00:30:48 Always thought he was very good. But the level we're talking about is truly, you know, it's a, it's the 5% of the, of the league at the most and he's there. Julius Randall is a really good player. The reason I would take Austin ahead of him, at least for now, Julius's track record in the playoffs has been bad. And I really like Julius a lot. We covered him like him as a person as much as a player, but I'm evaluating this

Starting point is 00:31:16 objectively. He has had a lot of struggles in the playoffs. So even if you think Randall may be more talented than Reef, And I think you could probably find some people who think that because Julius is at his best. Julius is a very good player. He's really good and he is a load to deal with. He's just, what he is is, he's like a lot. He's like Rudy Gober in the sense that he is a very good player with certain obvious flaws.

Starting point is 00:31:44 And what do we do with players like that? I mean, you mentioned John Crosinski, the Minnesota beat writer, not the actor. Like all of these people that we're going to try to line up and get on the show over the the course of the week. Randall is one of the guys that I really want to ask about because like what I have not seen as you know 50 Minnesota Timberwolves games this year. And so like what did he look like down the stretch? He had a couple 30 point games down the stretch mid 20s and all that stuff. I also had some 8 to 10 point. Which version like do what do they need Randall to do in a series like this? Yeah. I mean look at Randall plays well

Starting point is 00:32:19 in these playoffs all of a sudden the wolves are going to become a serious. Well yeah. You could start making it, well, Gobert, five, six, you know, McDaniels are really good player. Mazzre Reed is like you. So like the Lakers might have three of the top four, but then you can might, you're going to start stacking up walls. Nas Reed has a track record of beating up the Lakers. And so it's just like, you know, does dominating five through 10 in the series in terms of players, Does that matter more than dominating one through four? I don't know.

Starting point is 00:32:55 It's going to be a fascinating series. I'm excited to get into it. I love the fact that Lakers have the week off. I love that we get a week to really think about this series. As I said, we're going to try to get a bunch of guests on, you know, Ben Beacon from Locked on Wolves starting there and then moving through our extensive Rolodex, Andy, of media contacts. And it's going to be a fun week, a great season.

Starting point is 00:33:20 series looking forward to it. Locked on Liquors on YouTube is we can go hang out with over 34,000 subscribers to the channel. We will see everyone tomorrow.

Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - The Lakers to Face Minnesota in the 1st Round of the NBA Playoffs: A Tough Series Awaits??

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