Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - What's Behind the Mini-Slump for Austin Reaves?

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Lakers are rolling, but the road for Austin Reeves has been a little bumpy. We'll explain why next. You are Locked on Lakers. Your daily Los Angeles Lakers podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Thanks to everybody for making Locked on Lakers. You're first listening of Every Day. I'm Brian Kamenetsky with Andy Kamenetsky. We are the hosts of Locked on Lakers, and it is a good time.

Starting point is 00:00:34 to be following and talking about the Lakers. They are rolling. They won their eighth straight game on Thursday in fine fashion. Second night of a back-to-back. Luke at Donchon scores 60 points, Andy. LeBron James is thriving. The defense has been outstanding. Everything is going really well in every way,

Starting point is 00:00:57 except you could argue, some inconsistency from Austin Reeves. He's been kind of up and down as the Lakers have made this big push. And in his last few games, the last three games, we'll say, have been a really great example of that. He came off scoring three straight games with 30 points to the Houston game where he had 15 on 5 of 18 from the floor, missed all eight of his three-point shots. The next night against Houston, he had 14 on 4 of 9,

Starting point is 00:01:29 so not so much lack of efficiency as lack of volume. and then against Miami, did better in the fourth quarter, but still finished with 18 points on 5 of 12 shooting, so not super efficient there. So he's not been bad, but he's been kind of all over the place over the last, I think, you know, whatever it is,

Starting point is 00:01:46 if you want to go back, his last 10 or so games, 10 or 15 games. You know, it's funny. I don't even think it's necessarily he's been so all over the place as much as it's been either high, which is for like the last, let's say the last eight games. That's the streak they're on.

Starting point is 00:02:02 The first five of those games, Austin's numbers and performance, very good. Last three, they have not been as good. The last three games, which coincides roughly with both when LeBron really started getting into this groove and also when Austin may have really started dealing with this bruised wrist on his shooting hand. That time is fast. Yeah, last three games, he's averaging 16 points a game rounding up on 36 from the field, 17% from behind the arc. He's doing some other things well. He's averaging nearly 6 to 1 assist turnover ratio.

Starting point is 00:02:45 A team best plus 10 among rotation players for plus minus. During the same period, by the way, Luca averaging 45 points a game on 54, 43 and a half splits, 13 free throws per game. At only 74%, Luca could be averaging close to 50 if he were just shooting better at the stripe. LeBron 22. What's wrong with Luca Donchich next on Lockhart?

Starting point is 00:03:13 I'm just saying. He could be averaging close to 50 if he was making more than... Adrogators. Andy Kamenetsky thinks Luca Donchich is underperforming in the last few games. He is underperforming the potential. It's actually true.

Starting point is 00:03:27 I'm not saying he's clearly not underperforming as a whole. Trade Luca says Andy. Get this bum out of here. There are, believe it or not, points left on the table for Luca. It's kind of crazy, but it's true. And then LeBron during this period, 22 points a game, 13 field goal attempts, 72% from the field, 60% from behind the arc, albeit low volume, eight rebounds, five point seven assists interesting during the last three games all three of them averaging exactly

Starting point is 00:04:00 five point seven assists um and you know austin's playmaking has been good during this period his defense has been i think anywhere from solid to very good depending on the game so it's it's not that he isn't performing well overall and he's certainly not hurting things or an eight game winning streak and like i said they're winning austin's minutes. But if there is more going on than simply the wrist injury or maybe fatigue from playing a lot of minutes, it I think speaks to potential weaknesses or cracks in the way the team has been playing moving forward, which we can get into. If you dig into some of these numbers, you get questions about sustainability. And that goes back to Austin's role in all this.

Starting point is 00:04:55 Well, let's start with sort of the tangible stuff. I do think, you know, that it is telling, for example, that LeBron and Lucan, like, we didn't get deep into it for Friday's show, but like all three of these guys were like, we're going to play. Like, we want, let me rephrase that we want to play. Like, there wasn't any question of sitting out. They had come to that choice sort of independently before they even got, you know, got to the arena.

Starting point is 00:05:22 It wasn't a consultation or whatever. and after the game Reeves joke that well if LeBron's going to play I can't get you know let the 41 year old guy go out there and do it done but it is it is worth noting Reeves was the last one of those three to be cleared he really did need to go through warm-ups and if you're talking about shooting efficiency and things like that a wrist injury to your shooting hand will will cause some problems well here's actually I mean I think something really telling against Miami where Austin it took about three quarters to get going he he had a pretty strong fourth quarter but up to that point have been struggling more but he was four of seven at the line in the fourth quarter and six of ten overall Austin averages almost 87 percent at the line like he is a really good free throw shooter for him to miss four free throws and three in one quarter I think potentially speaks to what he's dealing with specifically with the wrist issue on the shooting hand. And I think the other half of that, you know, is, is fatigue because I don't remember if I text

Starting point is 00:06:35 you or not, but I certainly thought it and thought about texting you during the game that, you know, Austin left a couple of free throws short. He left a couple of threes short. And obviously leaving shot short is a symptom of, of, of, um, um, fatigue. Fatigue. And so if you look over the last 10 games in the NBA, nobody's played more minutes than Austin. He's got 383 minutes over the last 10 games, pulling this from our friends at Stat Muse.

Starting point is 00:07:07 If you go down just to say the 10th, 10th in that is Anthony Edwards at 357 minutes. And that's actually a pretty decent, you know, gap. It's like three minutes a game. You know, it's basically sort of an extra games worth of, of, of me. minutes that Austin has played over guys who have piled up a pretty good amount of minutes over there, each individual's 10 games as well. So I think fatigue is also a part of this. You go back, Austin played 40 minutes against Miami, 39.

Starting point is 00:07:41 This is another indication that his minutes aren't hurting them. 49 minutes against Miami, 39 against Houston 2.040 in Houston, 1.046 in the overest, overtime game against Denver, 39 against Chicago, 38 against Minnesota, 39 against New York, 29 against Indiana. That was his day off. And then 30, 38, I should say, against Denver, 1.0 and 37 against New Orleans. So you've got to go back to the March 1st game against Sacramento. Since that game, he has had one game under 37 minutes.

Starting point is 00:08:22 and most of them have been 38, 39, and 40. So I do think fatigue is part of this. But you alluded to kind of the shift in how the Lakers are playing, what LeBron is doing, you know, LeBron's skyrocketing efficiency and all that. And I do think it is worth asking how these changes have affected Austin. So let's do it next. Locked on Lakers is brought to you by game time.

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Starting point is 00:12:02 Okay. So I think, you know, the health is a thing. And everybody's banging up a little bit and guys go back and forth. Luca had the stretch where he, I don't think, was particularly healthy. And you could see he went from being one of two or three best players in the league to, you know, the ninth best player in the league. And it was a big difference. It wasn't bad, but he just wasn't this. You know, LeBron has had stretches where you could tell he was healthy than others.

Starting point is 00:12:28 Austin has had stretches like that too. So I think there's that. There's the fatigue, but I also do think it's worth talking about how the shift in the way things are working impacts Austin from night to night, particularly as a score. And his potential to be efficient. I know you alluded to some ideas that you had. I have some as well. I'm wondering how well they align. Well, I mean, more of what I was getting to was just the idea of sort of what happens to the balance.

Starting point is 00:13:02 If, say, this is about more for Austin than simply fatigue or having to deal with this wrist injury. And hopefully the injury just heals up. It's something he's got to ride out. I know there are a couple upcoming games against, say, the pacer. the Wizards or Brooklyn, that if Austin needs a night or nights off, those are the time maybe to target, just get him through one more game against Orlando on Saturday because that's going to be a different one, I mean, a difficult one. And then from there, if he needs a break in a game or two, they should be able to hold down the fort against those teams without Austin. It's interesting.

Starting point is 00:13:45 over the last few games, the usage over the last eight during this stretch that they're on right now, this eight game winning streak, the last eight games, Luca's usage 39.4, Austin at 23, LeBron at 20.7. And then in the five of those eight games, because those include the five that LeBron returned from the hip, Luca at 38.8, Austin 21.4. so dropping down a bit. LeBron's still at 20.7. The last three, when we've seen Austin's numbers really begin to dip, again, timed around what we both suspect,

Starting point is 00:14:26 the wrist injury has something to do with this. Luca at 40.8. Wow. LeBron's still at 20.7. Dude is just a metronome of usage. You can set your watch to it with LeBron. I will be used at 20.7, not 20.9, and not 20. 20.5.

Starting point is 00:14:46 And you can actually track with that during the game. We talk all the time. LeBron's a supercomputer. He's actually doing the math. He's doing that about where he's used it. I got to get rid of the ball here. Yeah. I mean, this is what makes him one of the smartest players to ever play the game.

Starting point is 00:14:59 But Austin's is actually at 18.6 during these last three games, which is interesting in and of itself because it goes against the formula J.J. had laid out with Austin as the second highest usage guy, LeBron. Third. LeBron's usage has stayed exactly the same. So it's really been more about Lucas going up. And again, it's a three-game sample size. Some of this may be dictated just by the way the game plays out beyond anything going on with Austin.

Starting point is 00:15:29 But it speaks to his usage going down a tick as Austin, as Lucas goes up. That's been, I think, an interesting part of this dynamic is that LeBron's is down for the season. LeBron's season average is about 26, 27 for usage. So it's down for the season. And Austin's was at around 26. So his is also down. Lukas is really the one that's going up. And I suspect in a lot of ways, hope this is not going to be the standard for Luca moving forward

Starting point is 00:16:03 because that is a lot to put on him. However willingly on Luca's part, it's a lot. Right. And I think you touched on it because I was kind of clicking around looking at usage numbers as well. And I think that the shift with the Lakers is less about a peck. They talk about it like a pecking order one, two, three in terms of usage, which I think is true in a situation where even by Luca standards, he's using kind of a normal for Luca. usage rate. It's as it's been creeping up because he's just been so dominant, I think the key thing here is that LeBron's stays the same.

Starting point is 00:16:53 There's a pie that's giving, that's sort of allocated between Austin and Luca, and Luca's taking more of it right now. And I think that the big thing as it relates to LeBron is, Look how many possessions he finishes as opposed to starting. Look how many possessions he gets the ball either at the point where he's going to shoot or in very good position to do it rather than having to spend 20 seconds working his way into that place or setting up a player to beat him off the dribble and all that guy.

Starting point is 00:17:29 Those possessions now are very few and far in between for LeBron, which is fantastic for LeBron and the Lakers to being able to get as much out of LeBron as. possible. But it also means that like, you know, that initiating duty falls into Austin's hands. It falls in or Lucas. And I just think Luca's taking more of it, I think in part both because Austin is tired and because Austin's a little banged up. And he's just not, he's not hitting as many of his shots. He's a, I thought though, my favorite Austin moment in the game on Thursday was, you know, he comes down the floor, the Lakers are in transition, gets a great screen from, you know, this is in the fourth quarter.

Starting point is 00:18:11 It's a great screen from Aiton, you know, five or six feet above the three point line right at the top of the circle. And just confidently stepped into the open three and drilled it. So like it's there, but I just think he's not able to write. He's not being able to kind of carry that load like he did when he was putting up 30 a night and something like that. It's all being absorbed by Luca.

Starting point is 00:18:37 And to some degree, LeBron's hyper efficiency. But I think it's like when we talk about LeBron being third, I think it's like third in the context of what are you doing on each possession? And then Austin and Luke are going to divide up how that works like the other stuff. It seems like I mean, I think it is to some degree that. I think to some degree it is a straight pecking order because that was needed to clarify roles, to declutter a lot of what was going. on and also just to expressly say it.

Starting point is 00:19:11 Like I think there was there had been some dancing around or maybe trying to avoid having to spell it out that specifically. And I think it was necessary. And I think the team has responded well to it. What I think that was interesting about this. And again, this may just be Austin's wrist, fatigue, a couple weeks goes by a week, whatever, it heals up, everything's fine. But if it's about A, the risk that doesn't heal up,

Starting point is 00:19:37 and it lingers, like if it's something that actually is a problem for Austin moving forward, not like just a short-term deal, or if it's about fit being out of rhythm, maybe the emphasis of the type of shots they're looking to get LeBron, like sacrificing some of his own shot-counter-shot rhythm. During these three games that, again, LeBron's efficiency has been through the roof, and Austin's been down. He and Austin and LeBron have averaged the exact same shots, for game 13. They've been dwarfed by Luca's 27.3. But like I said, if it's about anything other

Starting point is 00:20:15 than health or fatigue, you could start having concerns about the sustainability of this run, because it is unlikely that Luca maintains this level of production between now and however long the playoffs last. Like, I'm not saying Luca can't keep playing at an MVP level. Like, I absolutely think you can't try to trade him before. Yeah. So, well, I've come down. off that stance. But again, the numbers that I named over the last eight games, 45 points per game on 54, 43 splits, 13 trips to the line. That's a lot to maintain. I also think, too, it is unlikely that LeBron maintains this level of efficiency. Like the last three games, 7260 splits, the five since he's returned from the hip contusion, around 60-ish percent.

Starting point is 00:21:07 overall. Like, I know they're looking to get LeBron a lot of shots in transition or near the rim, so it's not as jumper dependent or whatever. But again, that's really... Well, the three point percentage will come down. But I'm talking to 60%. But the two point percentage, I would fully expect LeBron's two point percentage for the rest of the season to be elevated over where it's been over the course of the year because I think his shot profile is going to change pretty radically for the rest of the year. And he's going to have more dunks, more layups and more stuff like that. The issue, I think, we'll quit here.

Starting point is 00:21:46 But I just, what I'm looking for is when, when Luca's usage drops a little bit, when the heater gets slightly less hot that he's on or whatever, does that usage go back to LeBron or does it elevate Austin's usage? And I think the answer is going to be it elevates Austens. Because it's talking about the pecking order is a pecking order of when people, I think the reason I'm resistant, sort of resistant to it is because commonly when people talk about pecking orders, we're almost always talking about scoring.

Starting point is 00:22:23 And I don't think that. We've explained what it actually is. If people aren't going to listen, I don't care. I mean, we're explaining the way JJ has explained. Perhaps Andy, somebody's new. But it's a, it's a, it's a, it's a, it's a, pecking order that's not based on scoring. And so I would expect that Austin's will elevate.

Starting point is 00:22:43 And that's the thing I'm looking for, that LeBron essentially stayed. They found this role for LeBron, and that simplifies everything all the way down the line. So we'll see. We'll see what it looks like in Orlando. We'll see what it looks like in Detroit. We'll see who plays in all of these games. The last thing I was going to say, and I think this is important, like if the sustainability issues that I, mentioned for Luca and LeBron that I think are real concerns just because what they're doing

Starting point is 00:23:11 right now is very difficult to maintain for 20 to 30 games. I don't think that is realistic. The void needs to be filled elsewhere. Some of this falls on guys like Aiton and Smart and Rui to provide more counting stats, frankly, than they have before. But there is a big piece of this void that needs to be filled by Austin. Yeah, for sure. If for whatever reason he can't, it starts, it starts lowering the ceiling of how well this team can perform moving forward. I agree with that.

Starting point is 00:23:46 Yeah. I mean, when Luca gets back to 38 to 34 a game, you know, basically his season averages, Austin needs to go back up to 22, 23, 24 a game. Like, you know, some of those points need to be replaced by Austin. there's no question. All right. So we'll see what happens in Orlando on Saturday. Lakers trying to make it nine in a row against a magic team that is scuffling,

Starting point is 00:24:12 I think is fair to say, given the preseason expectations. Locked on Lakers on YouTube. So we can hang out with over, oh, well, we're just going to call it 38,000 subscribers. We'll see everyone after the game on Saturday.

Locked On Lakers - Daily Podcast On The Los Angeles Lakers - What's Behind the Mini-Slump for Austin Reaves?

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