Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Are we underrating the Penguins offseason so far, with Jesse Marshall!

Episode Date: July 20, 2023

Hunter is back with another guest for this episode of the Locked On Penguins podcast as Jesse Marshall from The Athletic and McKeens Hockey joins to discuss the Penguins' offseason to date, specifically for how much they have improved so far this offseason. The two look at Dom's article from The Athletic and how his model is super optimistic regarding the Penguins' offseason. Do Hunter and Jesse feel the same way? They look at the moves that Dubas made and while they have improved, it still may not be as much as Dom would think. They also dive into Dom's model versus what JFresh's model is saying and how the analytics can be a bit different before they look at some more milestones for both Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang heading into next season. Finally, they end the show with some breakout player candidates for the Penguins, even though they don't have too many for this season.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!FanDuelMake Every Moment More. Don’t miss the chance to get your No Sweat First Bet up to TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in Bonus Bets when you go to FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hey everyone, Hunter Hodes here with the Locked on Penguins podcast, giving you a little bit of a PSA before you dive into the latest edition of the show with Jesse Marshall. So during the episode, and I didn't find this out until after the episode finished recording, Streamyard, which is the platform that I used to record every single episode for the podcast, randomly decided to change my microphone settings to the pre-built-in microphone on my PC, not the regular one that I have been using for well over a year now. So you may notice a little bit of a difference in my voice. You're still able to hear me pretty clearly,

but it's not as good as normal. I apologize on that. That's the first time that this has happened in a very long time, and it's going to be the last time that this happens for as long as I am hosting the show. So I just want to give you all a little bit of a warning when it comes to that. And without further ado, here is the latest episode

with Jesse Marshall of The Athletic. Are we undervaluing the offseason that Penguins present of hockey operations Kyle Dubus has had so far? Jesse Marshall and I will dive into that right after this. You're Locked-on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network.

Your team every day. Hello, welcome back to another episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hodes, are going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes follow the shows Twitter at L.O. and, of course, thank you all so much for making this, your first lesson slash watch of the day.

We are free and available on all platforms. This episode is brought to you by Fandul Sportsbook, the official sportsbook of Lockdown. You can make every moment more. Visit fendul.com slash locked on today to get started. Join me now, as I teased to open the show today, is Jesse Marshall of The Athletic and McKee. Hockey has not been on the show in about, I think I would say,

five, six weeks now before free agency, that is. But Jesse, really appreciate you jumping on to discuss a whole bunch of topics relating to the Penguins again. Always nice to talk about hockey in the summer. Happy to join you. And thanks for having me on the show. Yeah. And speaking of that, I had some nice early morning reading when I got up at about 839 o'clock

today. And I read Dom Luchison's article. Hey, if I mispronounce his last name here, I'm not there. Hey, that's the good as it's going to get right there, buddy. That's you can't get much better than that. Perfect. That's what we're looking for here on this episode of the podcast. We can just end the show after that, honestly.

But he wrote his annual rankings of the most improved teams during Freedency versus the least improved teams during Freedency. And he had the Penguins pretty high up there. He had the Penguins number third as the third most improved team of the on season to date. Honestly, Jesse, I was taken aback by that. I mean, I've liked the moves that Kyle Dubus has made for the most part. The bottom six, I think is definitely better heading into the season. Riley Smith for Jason Zucker, the Shishinjari contract, a little bit mixed on that, but if he plays well, that will be awesome.

But when he wrote in his article that Riley Smith would give the Penguins 1.5 more goals in terms of goal differential over Jason Zucker, that was interesting because Smith may not score as many goals of Zucker, but his play in the defensive zone is playing in transition. excuse me, I think that really adds that value bottom six wise. Eller, Achari, and Nieto add almost three goals in terms of goal differential and value. That makes sense because they're all very good defensive players over the likes of Ryan Pilling, Nick Benino. It's funny that he put Nick Pinino in there because he didn't even play five games for the Penguins when he came over.

And Josh Archibald, who had a pretty good defensive season. He ranked in the 90-second percentile for five-on-five, even-strength defense. If you look at Jay Fresh's model. And then Ryan Graves, who's rated five more goals in terms of goal differential, but that makes sense because Brian Dunwin is just not the same player anymore. When you read this article, specifically that part of this article, were you surprised that the penguins were that high up? Yes.

I thought there were teams that did, you know, better business than they did. You know, the Devils, for instance, you know, they brought in Colin Miller and Tyler Toffoli, but they lost a lot of players at the same time so it cancels out a little bit of the goal differential, right? I guess I may be overestimated, perhaps, the moves that other teams found themselves with and how the penguin sort of juxtaposed into that. I also, I think, you know, out of sight, out of mind,

probably forgot how bad the bottom six was. I think a lot of the add in that goal differential is not coming from offense and from goal scoring. It's coming from goal prevention on the other side of the ice. And just having a better defensive team that's more sound and a bottom six that you know, knock on wood, hopefully isn't going to get caved in and destroyed every single night. And you can almost like, I know for me personally, I can live with low event hockey if it's

not, you know, if you're playing it somewhere other than the defensive zone, you know, low event hockey with like you're living in the offensive zone a lot of the time is me. So I think, yeah, I guess I was a little bit surprised. Do you want to poopoo on the parade now and like, and depress everyone right after the good news of this article? We can articulate this in a different fashion. That's maybe a little less sexy, if you will. Nine goals you would say is like, wow, like that's a big differential. What a big ad. But one goal, one singular goal is worth a third of a standings point, right? One goal, a third of a

standings point. That conventional math then would say three goals, right, is one point in the standings. Nine goals is three points. So now I'm going to take you over my boy, J. Fresh, right? Jack throws down standings

estimated, you know, pre-season rankings for where he thinks teams are going to land and the Penguins were not in the playoffs at all. And, or like, had a marginal improvement, perhaps, if that, on their performance from last year. And I think there's the rub, right? So the penguins improved by nine goals, which is three standing points, which is not enough, is not enough to move them into the stratosphere, the postseason.

Now, like Jay said, like Jack said in his thing, I don't know how much I buy this. There's like, oh, you know, there's maybe that's his penguin bias talking. I don't know. Yeah, I guess that's possible. But, you know, there are things that he cautioned against, I guess, in that piece. So, you know, we'll see. And Eric Carlson would certainly change that goal differential. But, like, if you look at it at face value, I don't think Eric Carlson changes it enough to get them in the playoffs in that situation either.

So you're now, you're stuck like, well, what the hell do you do? Like, how, you know, short of, like, you know, trading Brian Rust and, like, packaging in another player to try to make this huge grand slam. I'm home run swing. Like, hey, this team is where it is, man, right? Maybe we need to acknowledge Hunter that Kyle Dubis has done the best job he can. Maybe nine goals, you know, and it'll go up again. If they get Carlson, the number's going to change. Well, let's just stay Pat for a minute.

Let's say that this deadlock with the sharks never ends. They never get Carlson. Maybe nine goals is the best he could do with the circumstances and the money he had and the cards that were dealt him from the previous regime because he's got a lot of crap, right? He's got Jeff Carter. That's got a problem. McKell Granlin, you know, there's a chance. There's still another buyout period that they'll have potentially an opportunity to leverage.

Maybe he gets bought out. Maybe that's the piece that tips the scales on the Eric Carlson thing. But there's two sides to this coin. They improved. They made a good improvement. They made an improvement that statistically says that the third best improved team in the league. But it's so marginal that you could argue that it's not enough to get them to where they need to be. you definitely can and i'll continue to say i don't mind the bottom six heading into the season it can't be

as bad as it was last year where that unit had a minus 22 goal differential i'd eat my shoe i'd eat my shoe if that happened with this group yeah really 100% minus 22 goal differential five on five when the crosbie malkin lines were not on the ice you can have a bottom six that doesn't bleed goals against and also doesn't score that much but that can only they go so far when, say, an injury or two happens in the top six? That's the thing with the team right now. Their success is so predicated on everyone in the top six staying healthy again that it's pretty dicey.

Like, at Gini Mal against Cindy Crosby, both played all 82 games this past season. Jake Gensel was relatively healthy. Ricardo Rekyll also relatively healthy. Ryan Russ had a bit of a down year when he was relatively healthy. Can he bounce back next season? the success is still, again, predicated on this unit staying healthy, and then the bottom six being like,

okay, when you're not out there, we're just going to shut things down and not allow anything in the defensive zone, but still let you guys go to work in the offensive zone. Another big thing, of course, the player of Tristan Jari, he needs to just go back, excuse me, to being able to make, say, especially on the penalty kill,

but just overall at five on five. This past season, Tristan Jory ranked 97th in the league at five-on-five in high-dangered a percentage, even though the Penguins were 15th in the league in five-on-five high-danger shots against. Yeah. From that area specifically. Boy, he took care of the easy stuff, though, didn't he? I guess that's great.

I don't know. You know, I was talking to somebody of this dude, Alex, I can't remember his handle on Twitter now, but we had a really good conversation about this today. we were talking about, you know, goaltending as a whole, I feel silly, I almost feel silly complaining that Jari is unproven in certain areas because goaltending is just so like whimsical and stupid.

Like look at this year, like Sergey Barbarovsky, a guy who's chronically horrific in the playoffs, like traditionally bad goes on this magical three-round run, right, that ultimately crashes and burns at the worst possible time, right? Who saw Aiden Hill happening? Like, you and I both had him on our list to guys

that Penguins could target as a reasonable backup option going into this year, which obviously that ship sailed, right, as soon as he went on his run. So goaltending is like crazy, you know, it's voodoo, it's whimsical. But I just can't get past for me the fact that we have this whole, you know, the whole goal of this is to get to the playoffs, right? And then hopefully see what happens, maybe go on a magical run. and that's like the one gigantic question mark on his report card. He was absent.

He's been absent for most of this period of this testing period. And when he's been present, he's been hurt, right? So it's not like we could really get an accurate gauge of what, you know, the pressure of that situation does to his performance in psyche. And people can poo-poo that and call me a boomer. But look, like we have, I have enough evidence in my back pocket of, you know, just whimsical goalie performance changing in the postseason. You know, I don't know, man.

It's just to me, it's just a big question, right? It's a big question. And they need consistently average goal tend to. We've talked about that before on this fairy show. Average is what they need. They don't need anything more than that. They can live with average, and I think that they can survive.

I think average last year gets them to the postseason for sure, absolutely. That's all they need. And I just, you know, there are long stretches of, time where this player's either unavailability and lack of being around at all or like whimsical inconsistency, right? And I understand, you know, and I'm not, people within the organization have said to me. And as recently as this summer that he is the type of player mentally who is just built in a way where he is not going to allow any negativity into his space, right?

You won't do it. just won't do it. Psychologically, he's not, so when you ask him questions that are like accountability based or performance based in times where he's not played well, it comes across as like aloof or like, like, cocky. A lot of people are really upset with how he reacted to some of the goals he allowed last year and some of the performances he turned in. You go all the way back to, you know, the Islanders series when he, you know, is sort of like it was just whatever to him. while all over himself basically. Yeah, right.

So I guess I get it, you know, but it just, I don't know. The whole thing is got a, you know, a bad vibe around it, Hunter. You know, I just think it's, I think it's a good, I don't want to say he's a bad goal to him. He's just got to say healthy. That's the thing. I mean, he's probably. And I think out of his own way, like when he's, when he's, you know, there are just stretches of time where he loses it, you know. And hockey in and of itself is an ebb and flow roller coaster.

But I just think there are times where it goes away from him completely. And you can't, you don't have the infrastructure in the rest of your org to support that. Now, maybe Alex Ndowkovich goes on this unbelievable, you know, resurgence and climbs back to the level he was at three years ago. And that would be phenomenal, right? That'd be great. but that's yet to be seen. And, you know, there are concerns about his consistency, probably threefold that you have of Tristan Jari.

So, you know, I don't- Is he got Casey to Smith? Yeah. Oh, yeah. I mean, for sure, I think so. Yeah, I think he's a better goaltender. Yeah. I'll be it grossly inconsistent, you know.

But I also don't, I, you know, I have guesses about what this will look like come, you know, camp time. And I just, I don't know, I still think that there's, I still think that like in any, that's still for, you know it sounds crazy to say, dude, but still wants to upgrade goaltending and he signed nine goaltenders, but I still think that's something he wants to upgrade. I still think it's on his list.

I don't think he scratched that off yet, dude. Like, I think that's, you know, when you hear like these Carl, I, I truly believe at one point in time, I don't know if this is still true, but I truly believe that Kackadin's name was up in these deals too with Carlson at one point. And for the same reason. I think he's trying to, you know, historically speaking, Kyle Dubes has always tried to accumulate a lot of parts. You know, he's never, I don't think he's really ever,

outside of going after Matt Murray, you know, that was his attempt to go for a surefire number one that backfired on him. But like, I think he's looking to accumulate more there. So I would, I don't think that work is done. I don't, well, it would be kind of funny if they did go out and get another goalie. I don't think it's going to be something. I think they'd have to ship one out. Yeah.

I think Casey DeSmith would probably be involved in a trade for Eric Carlson. I think so too. Yeah. Something like that. Another trade somewhere else, you know, that we haven't even thought of yet. Hey. You know, it's still July 19th here. You know, we got a while until training camp comes back up.

But, yeah, I mean, they just need Tristan to stay healthy, stay consistent. If he can play the way he did during the 2021, 2021 season, I like their chances a lot more going into next season. I still see the Penguins as a playoff team right now, Jesse, even without the Carlson deal. Obviously, that vaults them even higher, I think, in the playoff list of teams in the Eastern conferences. I know the conference is so deep. But right now, in terms of the Metropolitan Division with what they've done, I still

think they're a wildcard team because I think the top six is good enough to get it done. Tristence and Jari has shown an ability to give them at least average goal-titting. He just has to stay healthy. The bottom six can stay healthy and not give up a lot of goals at that end. That would be nice. They just, we talked about it. They need safes. average goal tending.

You need your starting goalie to not be almost 105 on 5 high dangerous 8 percentage. He also needs to be better on the penalty kill. PK last season in terms of expected goals was 13th to 5 on 5. Yeah. Pretty decent. I mean, PK wasn't as good as I think we all wanted it to be. But we got a huge improvement this off season. So that's probably the one area that I think everybody should be feeling the best about

in terms of the work that's been done is it should be completely different. So, you know, a lot of the problem children from Benoni Gill have been moved on to other pastures and a lot of the guys that they brought in. Like Riley Smith, especially, you know, is somebody that you could throw out there and get a lot of good results from. So I'm excited to see what it's like. You know, I think, you know, with this kind of personnel, you know, maybe the opportunity to get a little bit more aggressive and go a little bit more power kill with it, you know, it matches their system, I think. And I think there's, I think there's a timer on the Penguins, Hunter. I think that there's a clock for them when that puck gets in the zone and the other team establishes possession. They have a little, they have a leash of when they can go all out on it.

But I'd maybe like to see that extended even a little bit with some of these new characters on the squad and give them a little bit more leeway to go out and just, you know, be super full press aggressive. I think you look around the league at the good penalty kills. That's what everybody's doing right now, right? That power kill strategy where you let your two forwards eat and just run around, like maniacs, even take a other defenseman and get them up in there and being aggressive in the circles and stuff like that. That's the trend right now.

You know, I think you look at Seattle, you look at Florida, the way they handled their business, Colorado the year before. It's the way they did it. So, you know, you've got the personnel to maybe like run that kind of set up now and still, you know, focus on, you know, the way you wanted to do it before, which is like, you know, getting to where the puck is and overloading the puck side. But you can turn that up on arch, I think, now even a little bit. everyone that they got this offseason can kill penalties at a very high rate.

And I think you will see this unit in the top 10 this upcoming season. That wraps up. Goaltending dependent, right? What do you say? Goaltender is your most important penalty killer. Yes. It goes back to what we said of more. But if they get the goaltending, yeah, I agree with that.

Yeah. I agree to. Tristan Jari, in both, whether it's Casey to Smith, whether it's Alex and Delcovic, whoever is in the net. They just have to not give up goals every time the P. But that wraps up this first time. I've been coming up in the second segment, we're going to discuss some more milestones that the Penguins could have for some of their players

this upcoming season, especially of Gennie Malkin, maybe Crystal Tang as well. But before we discuss that, take your first swing at betting MLB on Fandool and get 10 times your first bet amount in bonus bets up to $200. That's right.

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So, sign it's on today and visit fandle.com slash locked on to get up to $200 in bonus bets. That's fandle.com slash locked on. Fandle, the official partner of Major League Baseball and Locked on. All right, I'm back in this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I'm Hunter Hodes. that is Jesse Marshall. Jesse, I made a couple of boo-boos on my Monday episode when I was discussing some Cindy Crosby milestones

because I had these stat right in front of me and I accidentally said that Sid has played in 250 less games than Alexibetian, but it was 157. I apologize on that. And I also forgot to mention that Crosby is one more season away this upcoming season from tying Wayne Gretzky's record of 19 straight point per game season. Yes.

I apologize for not mentioning that. as well. Discussed a whole bunch of milestones. I think he's going to hit the top 10 in all-time scoring this upcoming season. But Evgeny Malkin, I think, is also closing in on a couple of major milestones as well. Right now is tied for 43rd all-time with 1,229 points in 163 games. In fact, he's only eight points behind Patrick Kane, and he's played in a little over 100 less games played Ben came. Let's just go show how dominant he can. He's a good year too.

I think it's probably a safe assumption. I think he will pass him. I think so. He had to have a hip surgery. Yeah. And my point that I was making is that I will never forget back in 2017 when these morons just to not include of getting Malkin on the top 100 players list of all time,

I think at worst he's a top 20 to 30 player to ever play this sport. But this upcoming season, he's closing in on 1,300 points. Needs 71 to get that. It's obviously pretty funny, considering he's at 12 and in terms of overall, like, how high he can go. I honestly think Jesse, $1,400 is a pretty good goal for him. That's about, what, 171 points throughout the rest of his career. I think if he stays healthy, maybe he goes a point per game this season. He can maybe have 50 points next year, 60 points, or you flip-flop back, 60 points next year,

50 points after that. He'll hit 1,400. problem. I don't think he's ever going to hit 1,500, like Sid just did, but 1400 plus. That's pretty good for someone who has missed quite a bit of time. Moves somebody in the top 25 all the time. Yes. Among like some really unbelievable play, like Brett Hall, he'd be ahead of Brett Hall, you know, where he lands depending on, you know, Yari Curry is another name. He'd probably be ahead there.

So, yeah. He would. That'd be great. I'd love to see that happen. You know, it's always that like, and somebody asked me this, which is like depressing to start thinking about this stuff. Like, what's the legacy of Hvgeny Malkin and blah, blah, blah. I'm like, I, you know, having watched like the early 90s era penguins and everything,

I just, I don't know that I could ever really pinpoint a player like this, you know, like Malkin. He's just so individual and so unique. And there's a blend of so many different things. I'd love, I'd love to see him get to an echelon. that is like haterproof. You know what I mean? That's like he's shielded from all the nonsense discussions

that are going to inevitably come his way, which by the way, I don't mind saying this on your show. They're rooted in xenophobia and just anti-Russian bias, which is stupid and dumb. There are a lot of forwards out there. There are North America that are worse in the defensive zone than of Guinea-Malkin and don't catch half as much criticism as he does. If his name was Mike Malkin from London, Ontario,

he'd have a lot of different narrative. He'd have been on that list, you mentioned. I'd tell you that much. He'd have been on that list. So, you know, it is what it is. But, you know, that'd be great. If he got in the top 25, there are not many rocks. You're going to be able to throw at him.

And with three cups and a con smith to his name, like, top 25 all the time, you're going in the Hall of Fame. So, yeah, I'd love that. That'd be great. Didn't mean to interrupt you there. But I would say, if he's not a first out Hall of Famer, you can just send the Hall of Fame to the Shadow Rail because... Yeah, dude, here's the thing.

Look at how long Pierre Terjean had to wait to get in, you know? And I know I understand like he opted out of a fight in the 1980s and people had a grudge for that for 40 years against them. And he finally got over it, which is a whole other side for podcasts. We could do another day. But I don't think people have that level of bias against Malkin, but like, I don't know, first ballot. I hope you're right. I don't know. I'm not as sure as you are.

I hope you're right. I just think there's a lot of people out there that draw, you know, really nonsensical narratives about him, you know? Like, I'll just give you a snippet. This is just, and then we can continue on. But like, think about the time Richards caught him behind the net, right? And like, he got hurt, right? Gotta drug himself back into the play.

And the announcer's call on that was he was basket hanging, right? and people accused him of cherry picking. He literally pulled himself up off the ice from getting the wind taken out of him, like a freight train, drug himself back to center ice and got a lead pass. Like, you know, so it's just like even, even like historical things like that are viewed through this lens outside of Pittsburgh of like lazy Russian catch his lucky break. Dude, like he got blasted, picked himself up, drug himself back 100 feet and, you know, sure he got he got a great pass but like you know it just i think stuff like that you know it's just to me

it lingers around you know and like that's you know it's tough to shake that reputation you think about like the zetterberg stuff in the cup final people still bring that up is like you know he's some kind of cheap shot artist or something which i always think is so funny um so the sentiment is you know what i mean like i'll do my part to spin that PR about and you know remind everybody how disgustingly dominant he was as a hockey player. But, you know, he's going to get in. I don't care, you know, and I don't care one in it. First battle would be great, but he's getting in.

There's no denying it. You can't, you know, you can only dilly, dally around it for so long. The numbers speak for themselves. Absolutely. And heck, Jesse, I'm still mad that Alexander McGilney is still not in the hockey hall of thing. That's the next one, man. Now that we got Turgeon in, McGilney's, I think, probably the most outstanding one left, I think, right? Yeah.

he needs to get in. And speaking, going back to Malcolm a little bit, if he does get to $1,300 this season, which is his next milestone points-wise, he would tie Jerome McGillowell for 36th all-time in NHL scoring would pass the likes of Phil Housley, Peters Dastin, Al McKinnis. Next season, probably going to pass Peter Ferson,

Gil Perrault, Dennis Savard probably, Matt Sadeen, and you're right, Jesse, if he does get to $1,400 right now, that would be 23rd all-year-old. time in the history of scoring in the NHL, above Yari Curry, above Brett Hull, Mike Madano, Brendan Shannon, Ben, Shanahan, excuse me, Luke Robidai. Yeah. That would be pretty awesome to see the, and, and.

And we're mentioning a lot of names here, Hunter. We should call this out. We're mentioning a lot of names here, Hunter, that have like 500 more games played than him. Yes. Right? Like, this is the discrepancy in games played. Like, Giganla has played over 1,500 games, right?

Malkin just cracked a thousand last year. So pretty big difference, right? Like he has found himself on this list. Like, just looking at it now, only Peter Stasney is out there with less games played than him. And who was generational talent, by the way. So, yeah, I mean, good company to be in and good company to be in with way less games played to your game in an era that's not exactly the most high-scoring era of all time. Agreed. And he's 29 goals away from his 500th, which I do think he's going to hit this season if he stays healthy. So a couple of big milestones coming up for Hibgeny Malkin. Shifting a little bit to Chris Latang. Right now, he ranks 29th all-time in terms of all-time point leaders for defensemen in initial history, 156 goals, 691 points in 1,0005 games. He needs eight more points to pass Chris Pronger, who is one of the greatest defensemen I've ever watched. growing up.

Yeah. If he gets this season, if he gets 50 points, which if he stays healthy, I think he could, even though he's a bit older, he would pass Scott Niedermeyer, another very good defenseman for the 20th all time on the list. And even higher than that, potentially, you have guys like Sergey Zubov, who is 20th all time right now among defensemen points. Rob Blake, Sergey Gonshars at 17 with 811. Crystal Taney needs 65 assists to get to 600 assists.

think he's going to get that probably by next season. But I don't think it's a hot take to say, Jesse, but by the time what Tang retires, he's going to be top 20 all time in terms of points by a defenseman in an initial history. And that just goes to show how amazing he's been throughout his career. Yeah, another Hall of Famer, I think. Yes. Pretty much slam dunk for me anyway. But something I like to mention here that I think is good to look back on is Craig Patrick's

work and picking him, right? This is pre-coming out of the lockout. Like, we haven't even played a single game with the rule changes where the red lines been taken out. You know, we're back to no two-line pass. Rule changes are being enforced. We can't close line and suplex people, you know, mentioning Pronger and Niedermeyers, two guys who were pretty good at that in their time.

But, you know, like, Lytang, it was unheard of, frankly, to drag. the defenseman as small as him. It was. It was just, it didn't happen. And it's one of the reasons why he fell. You know, he played alongside Luke Bordone at Valdor, you know, rest in peace. Luke Bordone passed away in a motorcycle accident, not too long after that, right after his NHL debut. But Le Teng was sort of like, I would almost argue written off was Bordeaux was so much bigger.

They were the same kind of player similar in sense. But, you know, the difference was. the height and the size. And that's, you know, for Patrick to take a defenseman that was as small as Lutang was at the time was, like, even smaller than, you know, he is now. I mean, he was a child back then. You know, it took a lot of foresight for Patrick to know that the league was going to change. That puck moving fast, quick skating defensemen were going to beat a premium.

And that, that, Lathang was that guy. You know, that was who he was. Bordaun gets traded off that team, off Valdeau. Lattang becomes the number one defenseman and then goes on to have one of the most dominant junior careers I've ever seen from a defensive period. So I was call it out because, you know, it's funny you mention these numbers and you think about these numbers now, but way back of the day, like, you know, in that early 2000s period, when that draft pick got made, a lot of people were like, you've got to be crazy

he's taking somebody that small. And now, maybe not. That was like Craig Patrick's last great gift to the Penguins, was Crystal Tang. And he's done all this as a third round pick in the NHL draft. Sometimes, the draft is a crap shoot for a lot of ways. The fact that they've gotten this production out of a former third round pick, that's awesome.

And he'll go down as I think the best depends on our franchise history in terms of how long he's been here and all that. But a couple really big milestones, coming up for him, a lot of legendary players that he's going to pass pretty soon as well. But that wraps up the second seven. Coming up to end the show, Jason and I are going to go over our breakout players for the Penguins for this upcoming season. So stick around for that coming up right after this.

All right. And we're back here on this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hodes. This is Jesse Marshall from the Athletic and McKin's hockey. So, Jesse, at only the Penguins have too many quote-unquote breakout players coming for this season, just because. they have a lot of veterans on the team. Let's just face it.

They have a lot of guys who have been in the league for a long time. But the player who I think could break out for the Penguins this upcoming season is someone who I've talked about at length on the show numerous times this offseason. And that is Joe Connor, who has yet to sign his contract. He is, well, arbitration starts on Thursday, July 20th. His arbitration date is August 4th. I still think they're going to have a contract done before then,

but who truly knows at this point, had eight points. in 10 games during the World Championships. Five goals, 11 points, and 46 games this past season. I keep saying it. It's time to find out what the Penguins have in this guy. He brings offensive a table. He's decent in transition. He can play in the defensive zone.

He, I think, is one of the better offensive players in the bottom six, in my opinion. And if he gets the minutes, I really think he could be a big breakout player for this team. And I'm not saying he's going to score he at 20 to 25 goals in the bottom six. Let's pump the breaks on that. Who says in a full way to two game season, if he breaks out, he can't score 11 to 13, 14 goals, be one of the better depth scores in the bottom six. Who is your breakout player heading into the season? I unfortunately don't think there's another option. I mean, I guess, you know what I would do is give a shout.

And it sounds stupid to say this, but like there's a very real possibility in my mind that Pierre Olivier Joseph to take a big step forward this year and give you more than he gave you last year. I don't know that you could quantify that as a breakout performance, right? He's more of an established player at this point. But I think it could be breakout for him, right? That would be a positive. That's really, I think, the only possible alternative you could give here. But like the expectation is that Drew O'Connor will give something big to this team based off the performance he's just coming off of internationally.

That was probably like, you know, obviously not as difficult of a stage per se. but, you know, you want to see a player grab that stage by the scruff and make do with it. And he did. So he exhibited, I think, finish on all the flash that he gave the team or some of the flash that gave the team in the regular season. And yeah, I think there's utility with him. You know, that's the great thing. And if you think about needing a shift late in a game down a goal or it's tied

or you're trying to snatch momentum back and you're trying to get back in it. Those depth lines sometimes play crucial roles. I mean, you think about like back when you had Tanev, Aston Reese, and Beluga at their best or the Matt Collin lines of the cup years, you could deploy them and they'd change the game, right? They'd flip the game on its head

and give you a little bit of that pizzazz back and momentum. He's the kind of player that could do that. And that's just because he's not a, afraid to get and mix it up on that forecheck, get in there and bang around and get loose pucks, you know, put the waiters on and get into the shit a little bit, if you will. That's great. I think that's fantastic. So, you know, I'm with you, Hunter.

I don't know that there's a lot as far as his offensive ceiling is concerned. But I think, I think what we would both say is that he's exhibited a knack historically for getting the areas where you score goals. And that is half the battle. He may not have ridiculous hands. He may not have an offensive toolbox that's super deep. But just getting to those battle areas, using your anticipation to get to where pucks are going to be,

understand the cycle. These are all things that he's shown he can do. And that's all you really care about from a bottom six four. I think at the end of the day, if he can give you that, that's a net win. I agree. And I know he'll be playing with defensive-minded players. in the bottom six, maybe like in Lars Eller, maybe like a Noachari,

players who, you know, aren't going to give you a lot of offense, but if you can have someone on that line that can, like an O'Connor, that could go a long way towards helping out the top six when they have some off nights. Because let's face it, they're not going to be on their A game every single game this afternoon season. And they're going to do some games where someone in the bottom six steps up. And maybe that's someone hits Roe Conner. Another player who I could put in there, if he makes the team Jesse,

Ty Smith, if he's on it, I mean, that spot against P.O. Joseph is going to be a pretty cool training camp battle. He just resigned one year, $775,000. Maybe one of them is included in the Eric Carlson trade. If that goes through, who knows at this point, the game of chicken continues. Was there a roster player that hasn't brought up, you know, the top six aside, like, I feel like everybody else's name has been bantied about in some fashion. So why not him too, right? I mean, put everybody in there. No, I know. And again, it'll be a cool training camp. battle. I was of the opinion last year that Ty should have won it, but they couldn't keep in there because they had no salary cap rent. Another player, this is probably a bit unfair,

and maybe this is weird to say, I know he's coming off a 28 goal season. What about Rickel scoring 35 to 40 next year? Would that count as a quote unquote breaks? Oh, yeah. I mean, it's the same kind of idea I gave you earlier, right? It's breakout for them, right? Like, it's individually a breakout year. So, yeah, I mean, that would be no. nuts. That would be crazy. I don't, I mean, I, what did he pace out at last year after he came here? Do you know? I don't know. I'd have to look it up. That's to be interesting, something for your next show, perhaps. I, yeah, I could see him score in 30 for sure. Yeah, I think he can score 30. You know, it's tough as the lack of power. Like, what, you know, what kind of power play time is you getting? Like, what, what's that look like? I mean, I feel like that's on this team is pretty, you know, without that, you lose a lot of that special team's ability to, to wrap.

up some of those goals. But either way, I mean, I think whether he's on the first line or the second line, depending on, you know, I think it's probably safe to say he's going to be on the first line. But no matter where he goes in that top six, he plays such a crucial role in, like, you know, opening up space that that would certainly be an exciting one, yeah, for sure. Or what if Riley Smith puts up 30? That'd be crazy.

You know, like, you know, playing with Malkin, like, I don't think that's going to happen. but that'd be a pleasant surprise too. Maybe throw that name into the mix. He only had one last goal than Jason Zucker this past season, financial 26, Zuckra, 27. So, hey, maybe he does playing with a center in that getting an all and getting some power play time. With Raquel, he scored 30 before.

He scored 33 and one season and 34 another. So, hey, maybe he does get the power play time if they don't get Carlson, scores 3540. Again, I don't know if it was truly fair to put him there, but I did just because, again, it's July 19th. Before I let you go, though, Jesse, Have you heard anything on the Air Carlson situation? It is the question that everyone wants to know.

His game of chicken right now that Mike Greer is playing because he wants Carolina and Pittsburgh, I guess, to bid against each other and to just give him something that he hasn't had yet. Is there anything new on that? And just where do you stand on the Carlson soccer? Yeah, I got nothing. Nothing. I wish I could die it.

I'm for it, though. You know, for me, this is a generational talent at defense, even at his age, right? I mean, look what he did last year. I know it'd be tough to replicate that. I think it'd be difficult to get that exact same performance out of him, even maybe, you know, given he's going to deteriorate a little bit physically and you hope he could stay healthy. And is he going to be getting the same ice time here? Probably not.

So I question that, but I'm, you know, the vibes would be great for sure. I, you just can't deny the impact he has on a hockey team, right? And for a lot of people want to make a big to do out of his, lack of, not perceived lack of, because it's a very real lack of defense impact. But like the net positive is still so great because of what he could do offensively. you know, I think him here in Pittsburgh could potentially change a lot of things, especially like this stale, boring, just Blase power play breakouts that they have is just so bad.

Yes. Throw that drop pass in the garbage, chuck the whole thing out the window, and just let Eric Carlson do it himself, you know, even if that means you have to play too, I don't care, you know, let him figure out. So I think you almost have to. You can't go in, look, and here's the thing.

I said this at the beginning of the show. If they go get Eric Carlson, I'm still not going to come on this program and tell you that they're a cup contending team. They're that far away to me. But you can't go into this year and not swing, right? Like, what are we doing? Why are we here? Right.

That is, you're living in the Ron and Hextall fear if you don't take the swing, right? Like, we're here because there's a little bit of this window open and we want to maximize it. That is maximizing the window by definition. I mean, that is the encyclopedia definition of maximizing the window. So I'm here for it. I think it'd be a lot of fun to watch. I would selfishly like to see that as a hockey fan because it still enjoys this game. It would be fun to cut video of Eric Carlson and make like a, here's your November Eric Carlson montage, you know. That would be awesome. So I'm for it. I hope they find a way to get it done.

you know, I think, you know, you're probably going to rule for me anyway. I don't know that if Jeff, if the Jeff Patriot thing is like the crux of this, maybe you got to move on. I don't know. Maybe they're, I, you know, if he's not going to wave, then he's not going to wave. You know, I don't think the stalemate's going to change that. So I don't know. I think it's going to have to be creative, you know, whatever he does.

He's going to have to get creative with it. I just, you know, don't overpay, right? You got to be careful. I think this is my opinion on this could change drastically, Hunter, if they fork up too much for this. Like, I think that's a very real thing. And I know I just said, like, maximize the window. We're here for the vibes.

But like, let's not take that too far, right? Like, you know, you have too many beers at that house party. The next thing, you know, you're hanging out the window by your underwear, throwing up all over yourself. So I'd like to avoid that, if possible. And, you know, they said, I do agree with some of what Rossi says. dead in that like some of the proposals that have come through are just nonsensical they're not real they're made up they're like some of the weird facebook n-h-l rumor sites that you see like you know what i mean

like that's where they're getting this stuff from uh so like so i caution this and i don't know that this is real but like some of these people are like oh yeah two first round pick what yeah get out of that's not i'm hanging the phone up you know like that's insane to me so if it's the right deal and it's right for both teams and and you can find a fair one, I'm all aboard 100%. And the thing with the overpayment, I've been saying this on my show a lot of the last few weeks. I don't think the penguins can because the sharks have no leverage here. Eric Carlton wants to be traded. He has the no move clause. My career can continue playing this

game for as long as he wants. Heck, maybe he wants to take it into training camp in the season. Oh, well, good luck with that value at the trade deadline, buddy. Sure. Good luck there. But it would be so much. And what if he gets hurt? You know, then what do you do? You don't know how to deal at all, right? So now what? Agreed.

I mean, then you're really screwed at that point, but it would be so much fun watching him as a penguin. It would make the team in general a lot more fun to watch because there have been times these last couple of years, I see where I'm like, man, this team is just kind of boring to watch. And I don't usually say that when they have three Hall of Famers and other very, very good players on the team.

But, you add Carlson to the mix, someone who is a one-man breakout from the defensive zone, someone who is a one-man wrecking crew in the offensive zone, who sign me up there. He may not have 100 points, but he'll still put up enough points and be saddled with a defensive first player. I would like Marcus Pedersen,

preferably with him, but I would also like him with Chris the thing. So there's kind of an interesting thing. What's he do for that Crosby line, dude? Like, I mean, a guy like Jake Gensel even, and who I think is one of the most cerebral players in the league, how can he use a defenseant like that? You know, forget Crosby.

What could Jake Gensel do with Eric Carlson? You know, that's pretty fun to think about, right? And there's a lot of possibility there. And it changes who you pay attention to when they're on the ice, right? And the dynamic of defending Crosby changes. So it would be a lot of fun. And maybe he opened up some space for old man Cid and give him the opportunity to feast a little bit on some of these forward.

Heck, I'm getting Alkin would also have a ton of time. Oh, man, no doubt. The same effect. The same effect. Yep. Absolutely. It would be great to seeing either one of the two centers just get passes and just play with Eric Carlson.

So many minutes and night. As I was saying, you know, with Carlson, if you want to station him or saddle him, excuse me, with Marcus Pedersen, that would be great. But I would also like Pedersen up on the top pairing. But I think they're going to flip flop with Graves and Pedersen if they get Carlson. But that's all a whole discussion for their day, assuming that the trick happens. You have to have a third team in there. I've discussed this at length for the last.

last few weeks now, kind of just waiting to see what happens at this point. But Jesse, really appreciate you taking the time to come on this episode of the podcast. What do you have coming up at the Athletic or McKeene's hockey, even though it's a little bit of the quote-unquote zombie days of the offseason? It's not. So back to work next week. Not for him. Yeah, got the McKeons hockey yearbooks coming out, right?

So for this year. So I will be doing Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, and Columbus. I'll be handling all three of those teams for the yearbook. So get yourself a copy prep for the season. If you're into fantasy hockey, it's a great thing to take with you to your draft and arm yourself to the teeth. And you'll have all the scoop on those three teams from yours truly. So yeah, that's what I got next.

Well, look for that coming up pretty soon. You can follow Jesse on Twitter at J. Marsh, FOF. And again, thank you all so much for me. Well, thank you so much for listening slash watching this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I almost just said making this your first listen slash watch of the day, but I've already said that a couple of times. Maybe people have. And if you have, thank you. Yes. Yes. Thank you no matter what. I'll be back with another episode for you all on Friday as we continue the three episodes a week into the rest of July, August, and then into September.

So again, thank you all so much for listening slash watching. Really appreciate it. I'll be back with another episode on Friday.