Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Avery Hayes is BACK, plus, how many points do the Penguins need for the playoffs?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Avery Hayes was recalled by the Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday and fully participated in Monday's practice, and Pat and I are going to discuss that, plus discuss everything that happened at Penguins practice coming up right after this. You're Locked-on Penguins, your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm one of your hosts, Hunter Hodes. you can follow me on Twitter at Hunts for Hodes. Joined by my co. Patrick Damp, you can follow him on all social media platforms at Sendin for Wet.

Starting point is 00:00:43 You can also follow the show's Twitter at L.O. underscore Penguins. And you can find this on Instagram at Lockdown Underscore Penguins. Of course, thank you all so much for making this your first listen slash watch of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. And Pat, Avery Hayes got recalled by the Penguins on Monday prior to the team practicing up and Cranberry fully deserved, by the way, the way that he has played in Wilkesbury since he was sent back down once the NH Olympic break started has been phenomenal. Two hat tricks during that time, one of which came directly after he was sent back down.

Starting point is 00:01:20 The third goal that he scored in that game broke his stick on it. Didn't even matter. He's still got enough on his release to get the hat trick later on during his tenure in Wilkesbury. He gets in a fight with Zach Ashton Reese, as we discussed in a previous episode. of this podcast, literally what can't he do? And then last week gets another hat trick for Wilkesbury as they blew out Springfield in their game last Wednesday.

Starting point is 00:01:44 He continues to play at a very high level. I've said it a lot of times. There was a reason why he was very, very close to making this team out of training camp. And you especially have seen that on display, not even just these last couple of weeks, but throughout the season when he has been healthy in Wilkesbury. during practice on Monday, and we'll get into more of the Penguins practice in our second segment. He was up on the top line with Ricard Raquel, who was centering it, by the way, and Brian Rust. And that tells me, Pat, he's going to be in this lineup this week if Sidney Crosby is not ready to go.

Starting point is 00:02:19 Most of this team is fully healthy right now. Basically, everyone is ready to go. But if Sid can't go, and again, we'll get into more of the lines coming up a bit later. Newsflash, Kevin Hayes was listed as the 13th Ford. if Sid can't go this week, Avery Hayes is going to play, and that's the right call because of how good he's playing. It really is. It also feels like, and at least from some of the things I've seen said and hinted at that this recall was happening regardless of what was happening with Sidney Crow's injury at the Olympics. And as you said, it's well deserved. He has been arguably Wilkes-Bair's best player for the past month. he was a shot of adrenaline that this team kind of needed right before the Olympic break.

Starting point is 00:03:05 And we talked about it after the game against the Sabres. You look at the way he played against Buffalo. This wasn't a fluke. He didn't have two pucks hit off his shin pad and go into the net. He didn't get wide open tap-ins where anybody could have scored it except for Nathan McKinnon in the gold medal game. but he played really well. He earned the ability to get another call up. And if Crosby isn't able to go,

Starting point is 00:03:35 which it kind of feels like all signs are pointing toward that, who knows how long it will be. But putting him on the top line with the way he has played, the energy that he brings, it's a spark that I think this team will need coming out of the break because the closer we get to the resume of the season, later this week when we start really previewing games. One thing that I'm a little bit worried about is this team having a bit of a sleepy start.

Starting point is 00:04:06 And it's not just going to be them. It's going to be just about everybody. You take a couple of weeks off. Yeah, Dan Muse has been running some really intense practices. Teams across the league have been running really intense practices. But no matter which way you cut it, no matter which team you are, there is no simulation of the speed and intensity of an NHL game. So I do get the feeling that we're going to see a lot of sleepy starts across the league.

Starting point is 00:04:33 And to have a guy like Avery Hayes, who is just a human energy drink in your lineup, might be able to help this team start a little bit quicker. Right. And I do think a good part for the Penguins is, you know, they'll be getting the devils on the second half of a back-to-back. And, you know, I know the devils might be a little bit sleepy, you know, that first came back on Wednesday, but it's still going to be a back-to-back for them with travel heading to Pittsburgh. I still think even though the Penguins haven't played in basically three weeks,

Starting point is 00:05:04 it will be three weeks to the day on Thursday. They should still have the advantage because that team is playing the night before, the other team that they're playing, of course, and they're traveling to Pittsburgh. So they should still have an edge there. I agree with you about, you know, the young legs being in the lineup, how Hayes can provide even more of a spark to the lineup. I mean, we all saw what he did against Buffalo scores on his first shot in the first period, scores another banger of a goal later in the first period.

Starting point is 00:05:31 Again, you know, this is a player that I do think is going to be a full-time NHL player really soon. Now, you know, whether he helps them in the playoffs, that remains to be seen. Obviously, if the Penguins get there, of course, it's because when this team is fully healthy, at least for this year, I'm still not sure if there is a full-time spot for him in the lineup, but I certainly think there's going to be a full-time spot for him in the lineup next year. Same versus like Rucker McGority. We'll have to see on Dili Khoevenin. But I really do think, you know, next year is the year that I think they're going to go even younger.

Starting point is 00:06:03 Like, yeah, there's still some good young pieces on this team, but there's also quite a few veterans as well. I also don't think a lot of those veterans are going to get moved by the trade deadline. I think you might see more of that business happen over the off season. But it's still like, how do I want to say it? Like a nice little preview of what you can expect from him for a full season. in next year when I do think he is going to hopefully be on this team full-time. I think he has the capacity for that. And as you said for Sidney Crosby, we're probably going to get an update on his status

Starting point is 00:06:33 from the Penguins on Wednesday. As I said earlier this week, Penguins PR has been very good this year about tweeting out injuries, like the time frame, you know, what the exact injury is, all that good stuff. If I am a guessing man, I think you're going to get it Wednesday because Penguins, they're off today. So he's back in town. They're probably going to evaluate him. And then I think that we'll release something tomorrow.

Starting point is 00:06:58 Time will tell if he practices. Dave News will talk about it as well. So Pat, I think we're going to find out pretty quickly here what the status will be for him moving forward. When just thinking about it logically, it's not as if he sat out at the Olympics, got sent home, or anything like that. You look at just the turnaround time. He's going to get back to, he's probably back in Pittsburgh today. He might have been back late yesterday. Not really clear.

Starting point is 00:07:26 Someone in the comments can let me know. But I think he got back last night. You put back, you put together the travel, the intensity, everything that he was doing in Milan. It's not like he's at home. It's not like he's just going to the Penguins facility and working on rehab and recovery. He's on an international flight.

Starting point is 00:07:48 And then he's probably on a domestic flight. and then he's driving back to his house, and then he's driving back to the, the Penguins practice facility. There hasn't been a lot of time for him to work on whatever his injury may be. So chances are he's going to get to the Penguins facility either today or tomorrow. They're going to look at his injury and go, yeah, this isn't playable. We're going to sit you down for a week or two so you can recover and then we can rehab

Starting point is 00:08:16 and then get you back into game shape, even though that's probably not going to take too long that last part because he's been at it all season long. And then he was playing in the Olympics. But I look at it just from a pure common sense standpoint where if he wasn't good to go for the semi finals and the gold medal game of the Olympics, they're not going to put him into a late February, early March regular season NHL game. Yeah, I guess time will tell on that. I mean, hell, Pat, maybe he'll surprise all of us and he'll be out there for practice on

Starting point is 00:08:47 Wednesday. but he's it has surprised us in many other ways. So I say everything I just said to add another caveat of it's also Sydney Crosby. And he continues to show us, yeah, he's not a regular human being. Also very true. Again, if I had to take a stab at it, I'd say it's unlikely he plays on Thursday. But we'll see. The penguins will evaluate him.

Starting point is 00:09:10 And I'm sure they're going to put out a statement about his injury once they know more. Now that he's back in town, they practice on Wednesday, all that good stuff. But that is going to do it for this first segment. Coming up in the second segment, Pat and I are going to discuss everything else I saw during Monday's practice. And then to end the show, we're going to get into how many points do the Penguins need to get into the playoffs. We're going to discuss all of that coming up later on in the show right after this. But before we get to that, we have to tell you all about our first sponsor, which is game time. There is nothing like being in an NBA arena, the crowd, the energy, the moment.

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Starting point is 00:10:41 All right, we're back here on this episode of the Locktime Hanglins podcast. I'm one of your host Hunter Hodes, joined by my co-s, Patrick Damp. And by the way, this is a trade deadline promo, join the Everyday Air Club for ad-free audio, access to our group chat on Discord and more. All you do is use the code deadline ahead of the trade deadline for one month free. Join now at locked on penguins. Dot supercast.com or hit the link in the show notes. Now, Pat, I went to Penguins practice on Monday.

Starting point is 00:11:15 I don't really have anything else to do during Monday morning. I'm like, you know what? I'm just going to go up there. my co-edder for the hockey news, Kelsey Cermax was not able to go. So I'm like, you know what? I'm going to go in your place, write a notebook piece for the hockey news. And I got to say, man, this was a hard practice. It was just about for an hour and a half.

Starting point is 00:11:34 Damn Euse has been putting these guys through the ringer ever since they were allowed to practice about a week ago once that was lifted from the NHL rules with the Olympic Rake. And these practices have all been an hour plus long. Like this one was one of the longest ones of the session. Sunday's one from what I was told was also. right around 80 to 90 minutes. He wants everyone fully ready to go for the stretch run. And, you know, the vibes were once again through the roof. Everyone was having fun.

Starting point is 00:12:02 It almost reminds me of, you know, recess back in, you know, elementary school or everyone is just having a blast. The captain is still not back yet. So once it is able to come back, he's probably going to, you know, get some of this out of here where everyone is just like joking around. You'll still see some joking around, but, you know, some of the players, you know, I mean, I'll say this. Like I didn't play anywhere near, obviously, the level of the NHL, but playing club college hockey when you have that break between the fall and spring semesters and you're not with your team.

Starting point is 00:12:38 You're not on the ice for about a month. And then you get back. And it is like recess. It's the most fun because you're like, oh, yeah, that's right. Like we're a bunch of, I'll say adults, even though, come on, we're not counting college kids as adults. Like, if you know you, if you remember your own self from college, I don't think you're calling yourself an adult, but I digress. Those first few practices are just a blast because like you're back, you're with your team, you're with your boys, you're skating, you're playing hockey. And I'll say this, the first joke that came to mind for me was, yeah, all those guys who went on those trop.

Starting point is 00:13:17 resorts over the winter, over the Olympic break. You got to work out those, those mitis and mojitos that they were drinking on the beach. You got to get all that out of your system. But the thing that I look at it with Dan Muse is, you know, we've talked about some of the shots that have been taken at Mike Sullivan from some of the players. But it's clear that this team trusts Dan Muse. Yeah. He knows that he can bring them into practice on the Olympic break and push them. He knows, they know that he has, he has the trust of this team that he can say, I know you guys are still technically on break.

Starting point is 00:13:55 I know we have worked really hard. I know we are way further ahead than any of us, anyone expected us to be this season. But if we want to keep that up, I'm going to have to push you. And you can see that these guys are responding to it because they are having a blast at practice. They are working their bags off at practice. And it's showing in the results. That and Damien's also knows how tough this stretch run is going to be.

Starting point is 00:14:22 He knows that they're playing playoff team after playoff team every other night starting basically March 1st when you play Vegas this Sunday. Yeah, you have two games this week before then that you should win. The devils have been a mess this year. The Rangers are basically tanking. But your stretch run, it really gets going on Sunday when you play Vegas. I know, you look at their record and you see like, oh, they've kind of. to underwhelmed a bit. That's still a very deep team that can give you a lot of problems. We'll preview that matchup later on this week. And then you really get into it next week,

Starting point is 00:14:53 Pat, where you got a lot of games the week after that, a lot of games. It continues and continues throughout the month of March. And then you get into April where the games are still tough. So he just wants everyone ready to go for this stretch run. He knows what this team is capable of, especially with the way that they played after the Christmas break. They have put themselves in a really good position to make playoffs. More on that coming up a little bit later. on in the show. As for, you know, other things I saw, the lines were pretty straightforward. Outside of Rickel taking rushes at center. And I do think you could see that in a game. As we can Pat, we've seen that a little bit, by the way, in spurts. I definitely saw it during

Starting point is 00:15:30 training camp of the preseason where Ricardo Raquel was taking some rushes at center. You even saw, you remember that game last year against the Rangers when they didn't have Crosby or Malkin? Ricard Raquel was the top line center for that team. So he has played it a little bit. So don't be surprised if you do see it this Thursday, thought he looked totally comfortable. All the other three lines were the same. You have the second line of Chinakov with Malkin and Novak. You have Mantha with Kindle and Brazo. And then you have arguably the best fourth line in hockey with Dewer, Lizotte and Achari.

Starting point is 00:16:02 Defensive pairings very much the same. You got Kulak with Latang and yes, people, Chris Latang is more than likely going to play. I would put the odds at, you know, 99% that I think he plays on Thursday. Watherspoon back Carlson. And then you did see Ryan Shea with Connor Clifton. Ryan Graves was skating on a fourth pair with Ilya Solov during practice. So I think they might roll a little bit with that third pair of Shea and Clifton, which I'm fine with.

Starting point is 00:16:28 I think Ryan Shea on the third pair, you know, going into the Olympic break, I think he was riding some momentum. I honestly think Clifton had been playing a bit better going into the Olympic break as well. So I'm fine to give that pair at least, you know, a little bit of wiggle room. I didn't like Soloviov's game against the Islanders. that final week before the Olympic break. So I understand why DMUs wants to experiment it with a little bit. Drills-wise, a lot of 5E-5 drills, a lot of special teams work,

Starting point is 00:16:54 and a lot of six-on-five work, which I do think needs more work. Overall, I think they have struggled in that facet throughout the season. So the more that you can work on that aspect of your game, the better. No really three-on-three or shoot-out work. They've been doing that last week. They kind of messed around with that at the end of practice. But still, pretty straightforward stuff. rushes were kind of what I expected overall. But again, Pat, another very high spirited, highly

Starting point is 00:17:21 competitive practice. Biggest thing still for me, these guys are ready to play, man. Like, I think everyone is just chomping up a bit to get to Thursday. They want to get this stretch run started. The jitters are there. You can see it. All the videos and all the reports from practice. These guys, they're ready to get going again. Their vacations have been experienced. They've got their relaxation. They're recovered. they're ready to go. As for the defense, when you were talking there, I think at this point, I feel pretty comfortable in saying that I think the only battle left for this roster at this point is who is defenseman number six. I think Ryan Shea has very much solidified himself as five, not just because that's his jersey number either. But I do think that he is solidified himself

Starting point is 00:18:10 as the fifth defenseman on the roster. Now everybody else has to make their case to be the sixth defenseman on the bottom pairing. And we still see a trade. We have a trade down then coming up in a week and a half. Don't be surprised if Kyle Dubas decides to bring in some help for potentially a spot for that number of six defense, maybe some more competition potentially.

Starting point is 00:18:29 Which does feel like the realistically right now, the only thing that they really need to do and that they should do at the end of the day. Obviously, if you can make a quote, unquote, my least favorite cliche hockey trade, then you do it. But you look at this roster right now and it's almost like, don't pick at it kind of roster. They've been doing a lot better than anybody expected.

Starting point is 00:18:55 They've shown they can hang with playoff contenders. They've shown they can put up a fight against actual contenders. So as I've said a million times on the show, just let it ride. Like, like, this season has been found money all season long. You don't want to upset the balance of this locker room and say, no, guys, my plan is more important than your success and start tearing away from it. You also don't want to hurt your future by selling some things off for short-term gain. But at the end of the day, I look at the lines from practice.

Starting point is 00:19:34 I think Raquel is a band-aid at center, is perfect. fine. If we need to do that for a week or two, I don't think it's that big of a deal. And then realistically, like, there's not a lot that I would change from this roster right now because they're doing well. And here's the hope and when they get back at it. They pick up where they left off. Right. I hear you on that. And I think for the overall plan for what Kyle Dubus wants to do, he's not going to deviate from it at all, even if he does a soft buy when you're trading a mid-round pick maybe a prospect that you're not super high on that's not going to you know change the complexity of the we boat on the fly and all that good stuff he's going to stick to his plan no matter what but

Starting point is 00:20:18 i think that's going to do it for the second segment coming up to end the show what's a good cutoff for the penguins to make the playoffs pat and i going to discuss that coming up right after this but before we get to that we have to tell you all about our final sponsor which is fandle ever wanted to experience the NBA finals live and in person, Fando was giving you the chance to turn that dream into reality with their NBA sweepstakes. Here's how it works. Use your profit boost on any NBA future and you'll automatically be entered for a shot to win an NBA finals trip for two. That's right. Flights, tickets, the whole experience. If you're already looking at the board and thinking about which team can make a deep run, this is the perfect time to lock it in.

Starting point is 00:21:01 I love futures this time of year, whether it's picking a team to win the championship or grab a conference title. It adds that extra layer of excitement to every game down in the stretch. And now, not only can you pick cash, but you can also send you to the NBA finals. Visit fandle.com to get started. Use your profit boost on an NBA future and get entered for your chance to win a trip to the NBA finals. Play your game with Fandle, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. All right, we're back here on this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I'm one of your host, Hunter Hodes, joined by my co-os, Patrick Damp, and Pat, where the Penguins resume play,

Starting point is 00:21:38 on Thursday, though, they will have 26 games remaining. 29 and 15 and 12 record good for 70 points, eight points behind the Carolina Hurricanes, Penguins right now in second place. If the playoffs were to start today, as everyone knows, they would have whole mice in the first round against their arch nemesis, the New York Islanders. Now, how many points will it potentially take for them to get in?

Starting point is 00:22:01 For me, I'm looking at around 13-ish wins to start. That, without any overtime long, losses, 13 times two, my elementary math skills here, that's 26 points. That gets you to 96 points at the end of the season. Again, not counting overtime losses, which I'm sure they're probably going to get at least a couple to a few of those. But if you can get 13ish wins for 96 points combined with at least two to three OT losses, that gets you around 98, 99 points. I think that should be enough to get you in. Now, obviously, the more of the mirror. barrier 14 without any overtime losses. That gets you to 98. Now when you combine those loser points, that gets you to probably right around 100. But I think for me, Pat, you need at least 96ish points to get it. You got to win, I think, half of those games to start.

Starting point is 00:22:54 For me, this is, there's two discussions to be had here. One is the basic, which I think is what you just answered, right? Just to get in, what's the cutoff going to? be and it's probably going to be around that 96 point mark because when you take a look at the rest of the metro division the islanders are on about a 70 or 97 point pace the blue jackets 95 caps 90 flyers devils rangers don't really need to worry about them too much right now barring them going on some kind of unbelievable runs but when you look at the islanders and the blue jackets two teams that are hot on your train.

Starting point is 00:23:38 rail, they're at a 90, Columbus is 95, the Islanders are 97. So essentially that you just split that difference right in the middle, 96 points. But then you think about the penguins and where they are, they're at about 103 point pace right now. So the, the two questions you want to answer are, what is the cutoff to get in? What do they need to do to get into a top three spot in the metro? I look at it this way. As Hunter said, 96 points is pretty much, that's your, to make this metaphor, if you're walking up to the door man at the club, 96 points is the cover charge. If you want to get in the door, you're going to need 96 points more than likely. However, for the penguins to do what we want them to do, I think they're going to need 15 or 16 more wins the rest of the way. They're

Starting point is 00:24:35 going to have to get around 30 points. They're going to have to get to about 100 if they want to finish second or third in the metro. If they want to host the playoff game, I think they're going to have to finish between 103 and 105 points. I think so too. So looking at the way they've played this year, every metric tells me that they're going to do this, that they are going to finish with enough points that you might see games one and two of the first round at PPG Paints Arena. Now, a lot of this is barring on health. A lot of this is barring on will they continue playing this way? Because as we know, history is not a predictor. It's not. It can give you some contacts. They can give you some clues. But just because they've played to a 103 point pace up to this

Starting point is 00:25:30 point doesn't mean they're going to play to a 103 point pace the rest of the way. But every metric so far I look at and I think this is a team that if they can get 15 wins in their final 26 games in some capacity, it doesn't all have to be regulation. If they can get 15 wins in and around that in their next 26 games, they will be a team that makes the playoffs. Yeah, you get 15 of those 26. Again, 15 times two, that's 30 points. You're at 70 right now.

Starting point is 00:26:01 That's 100 points. You're in. And also, Pat, that's not even counting for a potential two to three overtime losses where, or shootout losses where we've seen them. Obviously, they have a lot of loser points, but they still stinking shootouts. But that puts you up to maybe 102, 103. If you get more, obviously, you know, get an extra point. I think if you get 15, though, you're pretty much a lock to get in.

Starting point is 00:26:24 Now, you do have 17 games coming up in the month of March. for me, if you can win half of those, if not a little bit more, I think you're sitting in really, really good shape heading into April. Now, also, I would like to win these two games to close up February. You're playing two teams that I don't think are a playoff team, especially the Rangers. We all know they're not a playoff team. The Devils, you know, I don't really think they're

Starting point is 00:26:50 hanging around that much. They've had a really bad year. You guys, you still got to beat that team. Got to beat the Rangers. So you get those two points, you get those four points. do that, 17 games coming up here in March. If you can win half of them, if not a little bit more, I think you're sitting pretty going into April. But if you can go in these next three games, some combination of two and one or even one one one, you give yourself a cushion going into March.

Starting point is 00:27:20 Because here's the thing. I know that the Vegas game is March 1st, but like, come on, it's this week. It's this weekend. it's a back to back. We're going to kind of count that as the end of February. If you can get three to four points, hell, if you sweep this and get six, you're going to be even better. But realistically with how crazy March is going to be, this week, if you can get between four to six points out of this, you give yourself a really good cushion.

Starting point is 00:27:52 You give yourself some breathing room. Yeah, I said two and one this week. Like you're playing two divisional teams that are not very good. The Penguins have been lights out against Metro teams so far this season. Knock on wood, of course. You win those two. The Vegas game. I'm not really going to call it house money.

Starting point is 00:28:11 I think it's more of a bonus. But then, you know, you head into next week, a lot more tough games. But I think four out of six points, that should be the expectation this week. And then you really get into the big games here in March. But again, we're going to find out pretty quickly just how good this team is. But I think you said it. 15. I think that's for sure you get in.

Starting point is 00:28:33 For me, you win half 13 plus two to three loser points, if not more. I think you're getting in at that point as well. Let us know what you think. How many games do you think the Penguins need to win to close out the season of these 26 teams to make the playoffs? Let us know down the comments, send us a DM and all that good stuff as well. But I think that's going to do it for the Tuesday edition. of the locked on penguins podcast. Thank you all so much for taking the time to listen to slash watch this one.

Starting point is 00:29:01 Pat and I will be back with a fresh episode for you guys on Wednesday, giving out our warrior helmet, plus all other news relating to the Pittsburgh Penguins, as they will be back in action on Thursday. We'll preview that game against the Devils, and then on Friday, we'll recap that game and then get you all set for the weekend back-to-back with the Rangers and the Golden Knights. So for Patrick Damp, I am Hunter Hodes.

Starting point is 00:29:22 Thank you all so much for tuning in. We appreciate it. We'll be back on Wednesday.

Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Avery Hayes is BACK, plus, how many points do the Penguins need for the playoffs?

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