Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Brandon Saad: Come on home?

Episode Date: June 25, 2021

An old friend to come home to Pittsburgh? Yep, that's what we're discussing in this first segment for Locked On Penguins. Hunter discusses the possibility of bringing Brandon Saad back to Pittsburgh after he grew up in the city and if it makes sense. What would a contract likely look like? What's the highest the Penguins would go for him? After that, Hunter gets into Jason Zucker's season from hell and how his numbers lined up to the eye test. Should we expect more of the same next season? What needs to happen for him to get back to his level before this season? Finally, Hunter discusses that crazy Islanders-Lightning Game 6, and Dave Hakstol being hired by Seattle as their first head coach.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Your Locked-on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Your team every day. Hello, everyone, welcome to this late Thursday evening episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hurries. Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hoddies,

follow the show's Twitter at L-O-1Square Penguins. Today's episode is brought to you by Rock Auto. Amazing Selection. Rliable Low Prices, All the parts are right or need. you can visit rockadodo.com and tell them locked on sent you i'm currently watching the Vegas Montreal game six and Montreal is actually 20 minutes away from the stand like a final as of this recording i'm sure when you all listen to this either later this evening or you know basically on friday you know even before my friday episode comes out

it'll be you know either Vegas is going to game seven or the Montreal canadians will be going to the Stanley cup final for the first time since 93 That is also the last Canadian NHL franchise to win the Stanley Cup. You know, Montreal did win 93. Last Stanley Cup franchise from Canada to go to the final Vancouver in 2011, where we all know what happened there, when the Canucks lost in seven games to the Boston. And then, of course, the city of Vancouver burned down for, like, I think, the next week, month, year.

I don't even know, but it definitely burned down for quite a while. But, of course, this is a Penguins podcast. Today we'll be discussing Brandon Sond. and if it makes sense for Pittsburgh to bring him home, I don't think Colorado is going to have room to extend him. They have Kelmaccard to sign to a big deal. They had Gabriel Waintersog they need to bring back. Philip Grubauer is a free agent.

They just don't have the money to bring back Sade. You know, I know they're not up against the cap yet, but with how many players they need to pay moving forward. I mean, McKinnon, I think, is up in a year or two. He's going to get a huge raise. I mean, they just don't have the room to pay Sod. So, yeah, I would be pretty stunned if they did sign. Sod, so we are going to have that discussion on this.

episode. We're also going to continue our season reviews for this past season. Today will be Jason Zucker will go into his underlying numbers. I know his counting stats were bad, but we'll also look at what the data says and see if some of it was bad luck or, you know, his results were actually earned and what he could potentially do next season for the Penguins if he does indeed come back and is not picked by Seattle. We also, of course, are going to go over game six of the Islanders Tampa series and also preview game 7 of that series and just talk about why the Islanders in Long Island is just a giant cesspool and I don't really understand what the heck is going on there.

But okay, let's kick off this first segment for real. And let's talk about Brandon Sodd and the season that he just had. So not good shot attempts-wise. It was only on the ice for 49. Well, this is also also looking at the playoffs. So anyways, don't mind me. Let's start for the regular season. He didn't have that good of a playoff.

So for the regular season, his shot. Attempts were much better. 56.7% of the shot attempts for Colorado winside was on the ice. For goals for, goals against around 50.8%. His expected goals was 56.5%. That's a huge increase from the last couple seasons where he was at 49.4% in Chicago. And then before that, 49.6%. Yes, I know going back to, you know, well, going to a contender in Colorado is obviously going to bump those up.

he's going to get a better quality of linemates. But to see it at 56.5% this year, me, that he hasn't done that since he was in Chicago in 2014, where it was at 58% overall. Scoring chance for scoring chances against 55.8% of the scoring chances for for Colorado when he was on the ice. Compare that to the last couple seasons of Chicago, only 49.5% and then 50.2% in 2019.

High danger chances. Again, a huge rebound as well. 54% and then high danger goals. the actual goals for, Saab was on ice for 60.7 high danger goals four. So 17 for 11 against. And then if you go to the playoffs, let's go to the playoffs because I had the numbers a little backwards,

was only on the ice for 49.3% of the shot attempts. The Avalanche did outscore other teams when he was on the ice, those seven goals for, four goals against. His expected goals was 47.8%, so not really good at all. though he did make up for it with scoring chances for around 54.4%. Though for high danger, he did get caved in a little bit. When he was on ice, he conceded 25 high danger chances the other way.

You're only 24. So I definitely still think this is a good player. He played in 44 games this season. If you look at his counting stats, 15 goals, 24 points in those 44 games. Last year with the Blackhawks, 21 goals, 33 points at 58 games. And then in 2019, I've had 23 goals, 47 points in those 80 games. So I averaged over a point per game there. He is 28.

I mean, I really wouldn't sign him to more than a two or three-year deal. I would maybe give him... My favorite contract, I think, for a player like Saad would be, you know, a one-year deal, four to five million per. I honestly think that's the only thing the Penguins could afford to do. I mean, I don't think Saad would take that. I think he would obviously think that he's worth more of that. You know, and rightfully so he's 28.

He's been a 20-goal score for many years in the league. He even has a 30-goal season on his resume in 20. 2016 with the blue jackets he had 31 goals, 53 points in 78 games that year, which I think was his, that was his best season overall in the NHL. But I just, I can't see him taking that one year deal. And honestly, that's the biggest thing, what that's the only thing, excuse me, that the penguins can afford just because of their cap situation. I mean, if you're going to look for, if he's going to look for a three, four year deal,

the penguins ain't going to give him that. There's just no chance of that, especially with their cap situation. Now, I did do a vote on the locked on Penguins' Twitter account. You know, with Brandon Sawd being a free agent, does it make sense for the Penguins to open up space to bring him home? And for the results, it's 50-50. 28 votes. 50 you say yes, 50% of you, 50% of you say no.

Even Tyler, I-Fishy, H.T., who's come on the podcast a few times, he said, I would do it on a one or two-year deal for four to five million per, but I feel like someone will overpay him. I do agree with Tyler on that. He seems like one of the biggest, one of the bigger candidates to definitely be overpaid this off season. He screams like a Zach Heimann kind of deal. Someone's going to give him four to five years, five to five and a half million per,

and then they're just going to regret it in the first year because he's just going to be underwhelming. I mean, I know he's going to be turning 29 soon, but you just don't want to pay for a lot of the players' years, you know, even if it's, you know, the age 32 to 33 season. You know, they're going to decline. He's not going to put up the same numbers next season as he would later on in his contract. That's just not how this works. Players age, it's what happens.

I agree with Tyler there. I think a two-year deal is the highest I would go personally for Brandon Sond. You know, 4 million per is also probably the highest I would go. If it gets to five, I think that's a bit too steep. You know, maybe 4.5 million per you can get away with it, but yeah, it would have to be a short-term deal to bring Sod back home to Pittsburgh. Danielle of Locked on Flyers, she asks, well, she says it depends on

what they do to get the cap space. So my logic with that, Danielle, if they want, to move out, one of Pedersen or Matheson because, you know, there's a definitely, well, there's a 100% chance that one of them will be exposed in the expansion draft. There's potentially maybe around a 60 to 70% chance that both of them could be exposed in the expansion draft as, you know, Rob Rossi wrote about a couple weeks ago that the Penguins may choose to protect Mark Friedman as the third defenseman because, you know, Hextel might look at it and be like, okay, you know, maybe Seattle will take a risk and take one of those two players

and oh yeah maybe I could get something of value for them on the trade market though yes I understand that I'm not going to be something for a lot of value but you know it might be value nonetheless so yeah Daniel I think they would it would have to be a move of something like that they also you know if jason zooker also moves on that's five and a half million per right off your cap so they could use that money to go after sod but of course you know leave a little bit of money to go after you know maybe a player like yel or mea or you know also leave some money left over so they can sign a couple of their RFAs. Though I don't think there's a lot of big RFA decisions for the Penguins this season.

Let me just double check this real quick. I don't believe there is for them this season. Well, yeah, Marge-Inkowski, he'll walk. Teddy Bluger, okay, that's probably the biggest one, but I don't really think he's going to cost that much. I think he's probably going to come in at a couple million. He's probably not going to get over three. I'd be honestly a bit stunned if it was $3 million.

Austin Reese, I think he's also a good candidate to go to Seattle. Redeems the Hornet, that's an easy contract. That's really it in terms of, you know, RFA's, like I said, Jankalski's gone, Zohorna will sign for cheap, and then Teddy Bluger, if he's not picked, he'll come back for... I think that would be a two-to-three-year deal. I'm actually going to touch on that, you know, as we get closer to a free agency,

what I think that contract should be. My early thoughts are right now, two-to-three-year deal, around maybe two to two-and-a-half million per. if the penguins can get away with that. I still think they would have room even if they did sign Brandon Sod. So, but what I personally signed Brandon Sod? Yes, but only if it's for a one to two year deal. And it comes in at no more than four,

four and a half million per no exceptions. I will not go over that. I've wanted him to come home for a long time. I remember I was really butt hurt during my junior, senior, of high school when he got traded to Columbus because Jim Rutherford basically confirmed that he was in on Sade prior to Yarmu Kika Lion trading for him. And then I wasn't really that mad anymore,

especially after the Penguins went on and got Phil Kessel. We all know what happened after they went out and got him with the back-to-back Stanley Cups. It ended up being a lot better for those two seasons than getting Brandon Sott because there's no way Sade puts up the production that Kessel did. There's just no chance at all when it comes to that. That'll rub up this first segment of the Penguins podcast.

Coming up in the next segment, we are going to touch on Jason Zilker's season. you know, obviously he was the whipping boy for a lot of people. I'm going to discuss, you know, what probably went into his struggles while also looking at the data and what you can expect next season if he is on the team. Before you do that, it's time to talk about Bet Online the fastest, easiest way to borrow a sports action. Baseball season is in full suite. You can track all the action at Bet Online.

Get all the latest news, odds and info for all your sporting needs, including MLB, NBA, and H&R and your UFC action. Don't sit on the sidelines anymore as this is your chance to get into the game. head to the website or use your phone as happened today. You receive your 50% off a local good bonus on your first deposit. That's been online, your online sportsbook experts with the promo code Locked On. All right, welcome back to this episode of the Locked On Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes.

Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow this show is Twitter at LR score. Penguins. The third period is getting underway right now. Still 2 to 1 Montreal. And I cannot wait to see the scene in downtown Montreal if they end up winning this game. I still don't think the winner of that Islander's Lightning Series probably wins Stanley Cup.

You know, fool me once, full me twice, I guess, phone me three times, you know, full me four times from Montreal if they do get to the final and somehow win that. I just don't think they would be able to beat Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is just a different beast than Vegas. Though I am surprised that coming into this game, Vegas's top six had no goals.

You know, Riley Smith finally broke that curse tonight when tying the game before Cole Cawfield or goal Cawfield, as he's been basically this entire playoffs made it to 1. But it's pretty insane how Montreal has been able to shut a very potent top six down. Jonathan March, so Riley Smith, Mark Stone's done nothing, Max, Patcheretti. I think maybe he has one goal. But so even with that, it's just there's really not been a lot of room there. And, you know, credit to Montreal.

And they're boring but yet effective defensive system. Okay, let's get to Jason Zulker for. his season. Let's start with the playoffs here. When he was on the ice, the Penguins had 54.5% of the shot attempts. Fractual goals for 4 to 5. His expected goals was 47.4%. So a big steep down from last year where it was at 60.9% scoring chances for the Penguins at 56.5% of the scoring chances. When Zucker was on the ice, though, they did concede high danger chances.

13.10, a lot of that does have to do. Playing with, again, he Malkin a bit, you know, just Malkin really struggle defensively. year, so I think that brought Zucker's numbers down a little bit, especially in the playoffs. So for actual high danger, goals for 4 to 3 in the playoffs. Now, let's get to the regular season with his numbers. If you want, let's just look also, okay, I know I'm going all over the place here. I apologize for that. His counting stats first, 38 games, 9 goals, 18 points in those 38 games.

Yes, I understand that's probably his worst season since 2014 when he was 21 years old. Last season with the Penguins had 12 points and 15 games, finished the season with 29 points and 45 games. Season before that had 41 points in those 60 games, and then in 2019, you know, 42 points in a game. So, you know, he's averaged over a half a point per game for a lot of his career. I think the biggest thing, though, for him this year was his confidence. I mean, he was getting a ton of chances. I felt like on every single night, you know, when they played, but the puck was just not going into the back in. And you could tell that he was forcing it a lot of times.

I don't even need to go into data to tell you guys that. I mean, he was just passing up obvious shoot-first situations. Sometimes he wasn't even firing it at the empty net. He was just trying to give it off to another player. And, you know, maybe that's the unselfish thing to do. But when you're in a goal-scoring rut, just take the empty-net goal because I can actually do stuff for your confidence. And I just, he just really, I think, was overthinking it a lot this season.

I think that was the biggest thing when it comes to his struggles. Yes, I understand he maybe has not lived up to the trade package that they sent away from him. You know, first-time pick in Kalyn Addison and Alex Gowchenyiken. But also, we haven't really seen Kaylon Addison do a lot since going over to Minnesota. He's still a young prospect, though, so we are going to have to see. But I don't really think it's as big deal as some other people made it out to be at the time. For his regular season, though, for the numbers, 51.4% of the shot attempts when he was on the ice. Goals, four, goals against, 26 goals against, 19 goals.

4. His expected goals, 45.9%. So, yeah, the underlying numbers were not good. Only 48.4% that there's going

chances for when he was on the ice. Conceded way too many high danger chances. 40.1% of the high danger chance when he was on the ice. He conceded a hundred three high danger chances against.

I mean, I have to look that up, but that might be top five most on the team for any player on the Penguins this past season. And then for actual high danger goals for

12-4, 18 against for 40%. It was just a season from hell for Jason Zuck. You look at the underlying numbers, you look at the counting stats. You don't even have to look at the numbers to see that he was fighting it every single night. He did play his tail-off, I think, in the playoffs. You know, had a nice big goal, I thought, in game six before Tristan Jari barfed it all away. He also had that nice goal, I think, in game three to make it three-to-one before the Ironer stormed back. I know Brandon Tana then ended up winning that game, but I do think.

that he played a lot better in the playoffs than he played during the regular season. As for what I think he will do next season for Pittsburgh, he's on the team. I honestly, I think I expect him to get back to at least a half a point per game player, especially he is with Hvgeny Malkin. If Chino is back to 100%, I don't see why Zucker can get back to that level. You saw him play like that in his first, you know, I guess semi-season here with the team, had 12 points in those 15 games. Even before that with Minnesota was averaging half a point per game.

with that. I mean, he can get back to that level. You know, is maybe, is his cap hit too high? Yeah, sure. He probably should not be making five net a million per, especially with what he did this season. But I am still a little higher than most on the nice Jewish boy, as I like to call Zucker. I also understand that he was not good this season in any facet. I also, I looked at it. I could see that he was competing every night. This wasn't like a Mark Janikowski situation where it didn't even look like he was trying. He was putting. the effort in. He was just not getting rewarded, and it was also just a classic case of him overthinking and not putting the puck on net in a lot of situations. That was where I think

the biggest things that I noticed in his game this season, and I think if he cuts that out, going into the next season, assuming that he is on the team, I think that he will get back to the level that he displayed during the 2020 season, and then before that as well. So those are my expectations for Zulker next season, though. No, Seattle also might take a chance on them. Even at $5.5.5 million per year, if he puts up the numbers that he's put up for most of his career prior to this year, Seattle can just trade him at the deadline because they're probably going to be bad, especially with hiring Dave Haxstall for some reason, which I'll get into a little bit in the next segment when we go around the league a little bit. They can just eat half his salary at the trade deadline, which is what, 2.75 million or something like that,

and then they can actually get probably a decent return for him, at least I would think. So we'll have to see what happens on that. But overall, if Zulchro is back, I predict he will be much better. And I think you'll see him back around 20 goals, 20 assists next season, I think is my prediction. But before we do get to the next segment, it's time to talk about rock auto.com. You can save time and money when using Rock Auto. Why should you choose to spend 30%, 50% or even 100% more for the same parts from a chain store car dealership? Rock Auto is a family business serving do-it-yourselfers for over 20 years.

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at L.O. underscore Penguins. And it looks like the Vegas Golden Knights have tied the game against the Montreal Canadiens as of this recording. It is 2 to 2. So hopefully we can get a game 7. I would love to see the atmosphere in Vegas. But they have tied the game. It is Alec Martinez getting the goal on the doorstep past Kerry Price. We will see if Vegas can now get another goal to potentially make it three to two to send this series back to Vegas for game seven. But going back to that Tampa Bay

Islander is game six. Tampa Bay, you know, the Islanders look dead in the water. They're, kudos to them. That was a great comeback. You know, down 2-0 with around 25, 26 minutes left. Of course, Scott Mayfield of all people, ties the game after knocking out Nikita Kutrovind. That was just a garbage Adam Graves

kind of play. You know, it's part for the course with the Islanders. I've talked about this numerous times on the podcast. I'm not to repeat myself. It's just that's what they do when they're down. You know, Kutrov, you know, it's just, and the league doesn't care. You know, I, I've just, you don't see any other league condone this when

their star players get hurt. They will punish the other players that hurt them. But nope, not me, NHL, you got to have a service for the players like Scott Mayfield. And of you know, instead of getting a two minute minor for it, even like a five minute major, gets the game's high and goal with 853 left to send it down overtime. And then Anthony Bovillier wins the game to send the series back to Tampa for game seven.

And then for some reason you have Islander fans throwing beer cans onto the ice for potentially being the last ever game in the dump that's considered the Nassau Coliseum. You know, act like you've won something before Islanders fans. You know, I'm not surprised. I mean, the Coliseum is a dump. Long Island's a dump. I just, it really, I can't say anything else other than that, to be honest. That's just a classic case of sports fans, not really, they just, they've never won anything

before. I mean, the owners haven't won a championship since the early 80s. I know I saw people on Twitter saying, well, yeah, bro. Like, you know, have you ever been to a party before? It's like, yeah, I'm pretty sure I've seen quite a few parties throughout my day. You don't throw beer cans onto the ice for no reason. I thought that was just weird. Now, I'm not going to go off on full boomer here and go, like, what Eddie Olcheck was saying.

I'm like, oh, my God, that's dangerous for the players. I just thought that it was stupid. And it was just like, what's the point? Like, that's how you're going to celebrate the potential last game with the Nassau Coliseum. you're just going to throw beer cans onto the ice. I think even Cal Clutterbuck was ducking through a few of those. So just weird stuff from some Islanders fans. Don't really understand it.

I really do hope that Tampa Bay puts them out of their misery tomorrow. Now, I will say I kind of have been a walking meme right now with these old takes exposed. I predicted both of these series to end in six games. That's obviously not going to happen. We will see what happens, though, for the rest of this Vegas game, and then for Game 7 in Tampa Bay. I guess I'm going to predict Tampa Bay to win it, but with how my predictions have been going lately. I'm sure it's going to be the Islanders to win.

We just deserve an Islander's Montreal Stanley Cup final right now. We honestly just do. I mean, the league deserves this, especially with the officiating last night was just a disgrace. I mean, you had, like I said, that crotch deck on Kutrov that knocked him out of the game, he probably got his ribs

cracked. And again, best sport, worst league, everyone. I've been saying this for a long time. I was listening to D.K. on his daily shot of penguins this morning. He, echo that sentiment as well. It is truly the case of best sport worstly. The officials,

they don't care. And I think Adam Gretz honestly summed it up the best last night. If I can find this tweet here, if I just scroll through all my tweets here. Give me a second. Adam Gretz says, my God, I have a lot of tweets here. Whatever negative words you can think of to say about NHL's

corrective group of officials this postseason, they're not harsh enough. The league needs a complete reset on everything regarding how the game is officiated. to complete with new people actually officiating it. And I can't agree with him more. I mean, obviously, the NHL is not going to do that because they're run by a bunch of hermit dinosaurs who don't give a shit. But, I mean, they need to strip this down.

I mean, this is not working. No, I saw I think Bill Daly talk to Greg Wysinski today. It's like, well, you know, we instruct them to do the same thing during the regular season as they're doing the playoffs. It's like, that's the biggest load of crap I've ever seen. I mean, and the funny thing is, the playoff the officiating during the regular season is just as bad. It really is. They just, they don't call the seamstom during the regular season because that's just what they, that's just who they are. They're garbage officials. This is

what the league wants. And they're just, they're doing their jobs to what the league wants them to do. It's stupid, yes, but this is what we have here. And you know, with a competent commission there, with competent people around him running the league, we probably have much better officials. Look at Adam Silver. His league is ran so great. The NFL, I know they have their officiating problems, and I know that Tom Brady is probably maybe a little favored in quotation marks by officials, but at least the league goes out of their way to protect one of the faces of the game. I mean, the NHL doesn't do that here.

We've had Sidney Crosby have cross-checks to his neck area from Brandon Dubinsky and Marksdahl, not call. We've had the same thing of getting Malkin from this past postseason with Scott Mayfield, taking runs in him, not called. Scott Mayfield also, you know, cross-checks, Kutrov in the ribs, probably cracked him. He's out for the rest of the game. may not even play game seven. So, you know, thanks to Scott Mayfield for taking out one of the greatest players in the league right now for basically no reason.

And then Chris Lee is just standing right there. For some reason, he is still officiating in these playoffs, which is just a joke in in itself anyway. But I'm just, I'm done. I feel like I talk about the officiating every day on this podcast. But we'll do, we will end with something funny. It was pretty pathetic to see this morning that, excuse me, Seattle hire Dave Haxel. If anyone does not remember him, Philadelphia Flyers, head coach for, I think, three to four seasons.

Made the playoffs a couple times with them. I remember the Penguins beat them in six games, but he also lost to Washington in six games as well. Just a weird hire. I really don't know where Ron Francis is going there. Nick Zarras, my good buddy, says, you know, it's basically the old boys club taking care of their own. Frank Zelle Raleigh said the incomplete list of the head coaching candidates included Dave Haxstle, Joe Sacco, formerly at the avalanche a long time ago, Rick Tockett,

Kevin Deneene Tony Granado David Quinn and Rocky Thompson Whof that is just a god awful list I really don't understand

where Ron Francis was going with this I mean how are you interviewing these people and you honestly went well just interviewed Mike Babcock along with it or John Torrell or even

Mike Johnston and how Bruce Boudreau didn't get an interview that doesn't really make sense to me either I think that's just really weird in my opinion but hey you know Seattle's probably going to stink this year anyway

so just a really funny hire on that before we do end though just looking to see here still it's high game as we end this podcast two to two with Vegas and Montreal and that'll do for this episode of the lockdown Penguins podcast I appreciate you all listening to this one and we'll do another one of these tomorrow so I'll talk to you all that