Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Deal or no deal with Geoff from Pensblog!

Episode Date: September 23, 2020

There's never a dull moment in the Penguins offseason as there's a rumored Patric Hornqvist for Mike Matheson trade that's potentially going to go through today. With that, Hunter brings Geoff from Pensblog on to talk about the rumored deal and what it would mean for the Penguins. Could there be a defenseman on the way out if Matheson comes in? What are his best attributes? Could he get time on the power play? The two discuss all those questions, plus look at other options if this trade doesn't go through, including Kevin Shattenkirk. And finally, should we be all concerned about term as the Crosby/Malkin window only has a couple more years left? All that, plus much more on this episode of Locked On Penguins.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!  Rock Auto Amazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Built Bar Built Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON,” and you’ll get $10 off your first order. Keeps If you’re ready to take action and prevent hair loss, go to Keeps.com/lockedonnhl to receive your first month of treatment for free.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello, welcome to this episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. Follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow the show's Twitter at L-O-U-Nscore Penguins. There is never a dull moment during a Penguins off-season, especially today in case anyone has been living under a rock or has not checked social media. There is a rumor trade that has not gone through yet

that would send Penguins winger Patrick Cornquist to the Four of Panthers in exchange for defensemen. Mike Matheson, it would potentially be a one-for-one. We're not really sure yet. Kevin Weeks initially broke the trade. Then it just went silent for a while. And then Elliot Freeman and Pierre Obrun basically said there's a glitch with it. So we're not really sure if it's going to go through or it could have to do with Patrick Hornquist, no movement clause.

But to talk about this trade, a bunch of other stuff regarding the Penguins off season, we have Jeff who runs Penn's blog. This will be his first time on Locked on Penguins. So, Jeff, how are you doing on this crazy day for another, just another day, I guess, in the Penguins off season? It really is. I am doing, I'm doing great. I'm recovered from a migraine that put me out of commission yesterday, but I am 100% today and ready to rock and roll.

Yeah, we were going to have Jeff on yesterday, but we had to get them time to get right. And now, today actually worked out better because we do have this rumored trade. So I thought we were going to be talking about Chris Tanna, because that was going to be a movie that I have seen before. I didn't like it with the job.

Jack Johnson stuff, but, you know, let's just talk about this rumored trade, Hornquist to Florida for Mike Matheson. On the surface, I mean, that contract is pretty bad six more years. I was telling you earlier, I'll be 29 when that contract expires, so I think everyone will be a lot older. But, I mean, for his all nice play, he's definitely an upgrade over Jack Johnson, but I think it would be weird if Jack Johnson is still on the team with Mike Matheson going in. of the year. But I mean, what are your overall thoughts on this trade if it's a one for one?

So, you know, it's tough. You know, there's obviously that, that sort of love for for Hornquist and the way that he plays and all that, the nostalgia factor. But, you know, there's no, there's no two ways around it. You know, he's, he's 33. He's, he's making a lot of money against the cap. And, you know, he's, he's on the decline. where, you know, with Matheson, you know, you're really only saving half a million with him. But like you said, I mean, he's definitely going to be an upgrade over Jack Johnson, no matter which way you look at it. He's certainly a much better skater. You know, some of his on-ice results haven't been what you want to see out of a 26-year-old that's making, you know, $4.875 million.

dollars um but you know like i said he's he's he's going to be an upgrade over johnson um you put a guy like that that can skate that has pretty solid uh transition numbers um on this team in a third pairing capacity um you know the penguins may get better after this um is as tough as it is to to see given given some of uh some of the data surrounding mathison's uh mathesons past yeah and You know, originally when I saw this, I was just like, no way, because I honestly didn't think Mike Matheson was that good. I also, I mean, I still don't think he's like insanely good, but I think for a third-parrying role, he's fine. I mean, I looked at his skater chart. I mean, he ranks in the 93rd percentile shooting percentage, expected goals in the 85th percentile.

Skatersore, 87. I mean, goals, points well over 80 and 90. I mean, you compare it to Jack Johnson, basically he looks like Jesus himself. So it's just, I'm not, I'm just, I'm like kind of like on the fence. I'm trying to feel better about it. It just seems like a typical Rutherford move, I guess. But I mean, I do agree, you know, it's, it's tough to see Hornquist go if this trade does indeed go through. What a player he was.

I know he's making $5.3 million against the cap. I know he's gotten older. The concussions have really derailed him these last couple of seasons. You just can't stay on the ice. but I mean he was in very big part in the penguins championship window i mean honestly i that move that they made to get him really just started the big change with the penguins i'm going to be forever grateful for that the overtime goal against the capitals and then of course what he did in 2017 with beating the predators in game six it's it's definitely going to sting he was just such

a big part but you know he's 33 now like you said he's not he's definitely not getting any younger and i think his production is really going to start to dip just as he gets older. I mean, I remember when that contract was signed by him, I thought to myself, there's no way he was going to be playing out that contract. There was just absolutely no way, I think. No, I would agree with you on that. You know, it was a long-term deal for a guy that was on the wrong side of 27, for that matter. But, you know, I kind of, I definitely agree with you there that, you know, that, you know,

that deal that that that neil trade was the the start what did really feel like the start of all of this um you know you you hear all the time about about these guys that are that are quote unquote good in the room and and uh all these all these intangibles but with with hornquist you know on a on a shift by shift basis you could really see exactly you know those intangibles that that you know the hockey guys love to love to um love to build up because he was the type of guy and is the type of guy that will just do anything, even if it means just getting an extra shot on goal, he will put his life on the line for the team in game like seven of the regular season. He's out there doing this shit on a regular basis. So something like that's going to be going to be sorely missed.

But again, like we talked about it, you know, he's on the decline. And, you know, if you can move that money out, you kind of have to do it. Yeah, he was the big prime candidate, I think, to be moved this offseason. And it was so funny because I remember Rob Rossi and Josh Yoey had that article in the athletic yesterday. Not only, not 24 hours ago, they said, yeah, they haven't asked Patrick Hornquist to wave his no movement cause or no trade clause yet. 24 hours later, it looks like they have. So I absolutely love it's just perfect timing because I think they did the same thing with Jared McCann. oh Jared McCann could be traded.

And then like 24, 48 hours later, Jared McCann assigned a two-year contract. So it just seems like Jim Rutherford almost like reads this and is like, you know what? I'm going to do the exact opposite of what you're saying. And I'm going to ask them to ask Patrick Hornquist to waive as no trade clause in exchange for Mike Matheson and is the same for Jared McCann.

I just realized that like 20 minutes ago and I just thought that was honestly really, really funny. But now we can look at, I guess, the left-handed defenseman situation. Brian Duman's not going anywhere. There's no reason to trade him. That would be stupid. Marcus Pedersen just signed that contract extension.

I really don't see him going anywhere, but it would be kind of a peak Rutherford move to do. Then, you know, we have our lovely Jack Johnson, who is still on the team for three more years. Yuseligla just got re-signed, and now you're adding Mike Matheson. So that is five defensemen at play on the left side. Jeff, there's got to be another move coming, right?

I mean, you're really going to play one of these guys on their offside. It just doesn't really make any sense to me. Yeah, I would agree with you. You know, something has to give here. My big fear, and, you know, I don't think Marcus Pedersen should go anywhere. I think he should be one of the, I think, of the Ford defensemen, or of the six defensemen, rather, that will start on opening night. He should be in that category of probably untouchable, you know, with Marina Le Tang and Dumlin.

I think that pairing that he has with Marino is just, it's your perfect ideal second pairing. Yeah. That can eat up minutes against the top line if they're out there against them. But obviously can control the puck against the middle six that they typically come up against. my big fear right now is that given Johnson's given the fact that Marino kind of kept Johnson afloat early in the season that that's going to be kind of a stepping stone to to move out Pedersen and let Johnson eat up minutes

with Marino knowing that he had played he had played with Marino and played well with Marino early in the season. But it's curious because, you know, they obviously signed Ricola. And you kind of think that that's the end of it. And now Matheson's presumably coming in. So something has to break. And you obviously hope that it's Johnson that's going out. But no one's going to take that contract on with a flat cap.

and with all the financial issues with with COVID. No one's going to take that contract on straight up. So I guess the big thing is is whether or not he gets moved with with Murray and get into all sorts of other permutations of how that can go down. But yeah, you almost have to think that it's something has to give here, you know, soon. I think so. I mean, you know, part of me is hoping that he's attached with Hornquist going to Florida to get that cap out.

and then bring Mike Matheson in. It would make more sense, especially from the Penguins' perspective. I mean, that dumps Hornquist salary and dumps Johnson's salary, and you actually get a good chunk of salary cap room in return. I think you save at least $3 to $4 million, if I'm not mistaken, with those two contracts going to Florida,

and then Mike Matheson's contract coming back. I'll have to double check on that, though. So a lot of me is hoping that that happens, but, I mean, I think you're right. It might have to be with Matt Marie's contract, but I think teams are also wary of paying Matt Murray in arbitration because it's going to he's probably going to ask for like five to six million or something like that just because he's won two Stanley Cups.

But yeah, this is, like I said, it's never a dull moment. I wanted to get your thoughts on a couple other things surrounding like defensive targets because this one really is not the worst one they could go after. You know, there's the Christianav rumors and a couple other players that are hitting the market like Cody Cici. That would be a total Jim Rutherford move. But before we do get to that in the next segment, it's time we can talk about Bilt Bar a little bit.

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They reset the promo code for this relaunch. You can go to Billbar.com, Use promo code locked on and you'll get $10 off your next order. Jesus, I cannot speak today. That's promo code locked on for $10 off at BiltBar.com. All right, Jeff. So we all saw the rumors that came out about defensive targets yesterday. That was in the athletics article, Christopher Tannett from Vancouver.

I think this trade, it's definitely an upgrade over a player like that. I was reading a tweet from Ryan Wilson who covers the Penguins for Hockey Buzz. Tana played a lot with Quinn Hughes this past season. who is going to be winning a lot of Norris's in his future. He played 700 minutes with him. His possession was 49% as expected goals for 50%. Quinn Hughes without Chris Tann of in the lineup, that was 427 minutes. His possession went up to 57%.

His expected goals went up to 57%. And then with Tanna playing without Hughes, which was 322 minutes, his possession was 39% and his expected goals four were 40%. So, yeah, I'm pretty sure, I think if you look at the trade like this, they definitely dodged a bullet by not signing Chris Tannib, assuming this trade does go through. You almost kind of wonder, you know, especially with the way that Rutherford is,

you know, will he still make a run at someone like Tenev, you know, when all this is said and done? You hope that he wouldn't. You know, if you had told me, you know, three, four years ago that the Penguins were interested in Chris Teneb, I would have been all over it. But this year in particular, you know,

he was really, he was bad. You know, he typically has been a guy that's, that's thrived in a, is that sort of, you know, pure defensive defenseman.

You know, he can move the puck. He can skate. But, but this year, I mean, he hemorrhaged, you know,

chances against. And again, he just, he wasn't strong at pushing the puck forward, um, in, in helping his offense, which again, is something that, you know, he's, he's never been particularly good at. Um, but, you know, he's, he's going to be 31 December. It'll be 31 when the season starts. Um, and seeing how drastically he declined this year, um, you know, from even just two, three years ago, uh, he's, he's not really a player that, that I think would, um, would fit as a third-paring defenseman,

especially if he's looking at, you know, $5 million a year. It's just not something that would, that would really fit in with, with this team right now. Yeah. As you mentioned,

you know, he struggled with, if he struggled that much with Quinn Hughes, what's he going to do with someone like, like Jack Johnson? It's just asking for, it's just asking for trouble. Yeah.

And as I said earlier on in this episode, you know, I've seen that movie, before, you know, because Jim Rutherford, when he sees his guy, he likes to go after him. I don't like it. I don't want to see a sequel to that. So I'm kind of glad that it looks like when they're not going to go after Chris Tenev and just get that out of here.

But yeah, I mean, the other puzzling thing about that, five years for a defense and that's going to be 31 years old, that the decline is already starting, that would have just been a really, really bad deal. I've seen a couple people on hockey Twitter saying, you know, that deal that he signs could be one of the worst of the offseason. And, you know, it wouldn't really surprise me, to be honest with you. because there's always a deal like that for a player that's over 30 that signs for a lot of years. That just, it doesn't pan out.

You know, you look at what happened with Carl Alsner up in Montreal. I definitely can see that comparison with Chris Cannon just because of how the body is just breaking down there, I think. Yeah, and I think one thing that we all need to be a little bit cognizant of with the penguins giving out term, I'm starting to become more and more, I'm leaning more and more towards being in that camp where term really isn't going to make much of a difference at this point. You know, if you subscribe to the idea that the penguins really have, you know, two, maybe three, four years left in this window,

whatever you want to call it, before Crosby and Malkin are no longer truly capable of carrying a team in winning them a championship. Term isn't going to make much of a difference. You know, if they, if they're bad in years three, four, five, six, you know, what difference does it make? If they're already going to be a lottery team, having some of these longer term contracts for guys that are going to help

in the next one to three years, you know, I'm more and more okay with that. but you're absolutely right. I mean, with someone like Tanev, someone like Alsner, you know, obviously, you know, we can beat the dead horse with Johnson all we want. But the latter years of contracts like that are going to look extremely bad, especially if it's a team that's trying to contend. Yeah, I totally understand.

I totally get that point too. I mean, I need to start realizing that because, you know, Sean Gentile had a really good article last year about the Brandon and Tanev contract because it was for six years

and I wanted to meet myself in the clue was like why did you have to go six years to get him and then he had that great article basically saying like who gives a shit that they're going to be retired

Crosby Malkin and Lentang will probably be retired by that point anyway so it's kind of a new point so it's like yeah I think I need to start realizing that as well

especially with Mike Matheson he's Crosby Malkin are not going to be here I don't think in six more years they're going to be basically what 40 years old at that point so I think they'll be

I would hope I think they'll be retired by that point but who knows maybe they'll still be trying to play a couple more seasons but yeah so I did also want to touch on this you tweeted about this this morning say this trade like does not go through and there's a report saying right now that apparently

the reason the trade has not gone through is because they've been unable to reach Patrick Hornquist in Sweden so that is funny oh my God what time is it in Sweden right now I'm going actually to wonder is i'm actually going to do with that right now on the podcast so i think it's i think it's

about 6.30 7 o'clock right now yeah it's 730 right now so he's probably eating dinner right now so sorry patrick they're probably trying to bother you during your dinner time so yeah never a dull moment on this podcast for that but you know say this trade um somehow does not go through and dr hornquist um actually vetoes it because he does have a no trade clause i think it might be a full no movement cause but i'm going to double check on that um you have to tweet this morning about Kevin Schaerker. I would be all for that. I think he would maybe be looking for a three to 40 year deal, maybe in the 3.5 to 4 million per range. I think he made less than $2 million per this season on a basically a take-it deal to get his stock back up. It was really,

really good for Tampa Bay. If this doesn't go through, man, and they want to get a defenseman on the right side, just how good of a fit would that be for the Penguins? Yeah, so like you said, I tweeted a little bit about this morning. you know he's he's really good in transition um and you know if if you're if you're looking at a at a third pairing that's that's going to be johnson plus whatever um whoever they go out and get whether it be a free agency or um or with you know chadruid or if they trade rust for uh for a for a third pairing right guy um you know with with with anything with with johnson i think the the big thing is going to be having a guy that can that can skate the puck out of the out of the defensive zone.

You know, these guys aren't, you know, you watch when Johnson's on the ice, they kind of get hemmed in and have to pass the puck out and whatnot. With Chattonkirk, you have a guy that, you know, he's in the 72nd percentile as far as, as far as his exit rank based on data track by, by Corey. I'm going to guess his last thing, Snyder. I've never actually learned how to pronounce his last name. I can't mind. He does great work, though. And Sean Tierney at Charting Hockey visualizes a lot of stuff that other people track. But Chatton Kirk's a guy that's great at carrying the puck out of his own zone.

He's pretty good at entering the offensive zone with the puck on a stick as well. but I think that's the type of guy that that you that you need to pair with Johnson eating up those those those those minutes on the third pair you know you compare you can pair someone like Chatton Kirk to to Justin Schultz and looking at the same data. Schultz is below average at exiting the puck you know carrying it out of the out of the defensive zone and frankly not very good at passing the puck out as well. So there was obviously a fit issue with Schultz and Johnson. And then, you know, comparing even that to John Marino, Marino found himself close to the 75th percentile as far as exiting the puck out. So if you're looking at the two basically most common partners when Johnson was playing third line or third pairing minutes in Schulton, Marino, Chattonkirk tracks a lot more closely to Marino where, you know, you had that success

with, with Johnson. You know, one of the, one of the things I think that Chattonkirk never really got enough credit for throughout his career is that he's, he's a decent defender. You know, his shot suppression metrics are, you know, above average. You know, obviously we, we know about his, his flare for, for the offense, back to his days in St. Louis where he just put up, you know, so many points, right? And like you said, he kind of had a renaissance with Tampa this year. I just don't know, I don't know about the cost. You know, obviously he made less than,

less than two million this year. You know, if you look at contract projections from, from, you know, say, evolving hockey, they have him over, over five million. Yes. Yeah. So that's going to be a tough bit if that's what the, what the open market's going to look like for for a guy like Shattenkirk but if you can get him in it, you know, even $4 million,

I think it's something that that you have to kind of take a shot at. And, you know, similar to you know, to why you wanted someone like Justin Shultz in the lineup, if say Latang goes down, you have someone that can run the power play and

Chatton Kirk throughout his career has been a great power play guy. This year alone, relative to to the league average. You know, he added, he was 10% above as far as expected goals for 60 minutes on the power play with Tampa. And largely, that's, that's in what, second pair of minutes. So, you know, he can, he can run the show on the power play, you know, kind of gives you, gives you a little bit of flexibility there. He's a right shot, obviously.

And is a decent defender. So I think that that's a guy that really fits the mold. of this penguin's team. Yeah. I'm glad you brought up the power play thing, you know, just because especially if Chris Letang gets hurt, and he's had his injury problems throughout his career. He could step into the top powerplay unit.

I know John Marino could too, and I don't really think they could miss the beat. He's been really, really good on the power play throughout his career. I mean, if Latang is healthy, obviously he can quarterback the second unit, so that would be awesome. But yeah, it would just be, I think, a really, really good signing. Like I said, I'm kind of coming away with term, I guess.

I don't really care too much at this point, but as long as you can get him for like a good cap hit, like maybe $4 million or something like that, I'd be all for it. But too, we're still touch on the powerplay here. I'll just keep you for a couple more minutes. We'll talk about Matheson for that. I do know Matheson was on the power play at times with the Panthers.

Assuming this trade does go through and wow, I'm going to keep saying that until this podcast is over with. Do you think he could make a play for getting some power play units, especially on the second unit away from someone like John Marino? Yeah, I think, you know, I think with the likes of Marino and someone like Matheson, who I think has a pretty decent shot from the point, you know, I think that's a likely scenario. You know, then after the power play is done,

you can get the likes of Dumlin and Pedersen out there, you know, and you're not really, you're not really losing too much on the back end. But yeah, I could see Matheson if that's the case, you know, being a guy that does take up some second pair of minutes. Yeah, I agree with you on that. And I think that might be all for this episode of the Lockdowne Penguins podcast. What a wild day it's already been.

I'm sure it's going to get wilder, especially if Patrick Hornquist actually knows to pick up his phone in Sweden, and is done eating with his family. So who knows what's going to happen there. Jeff, thank you so much for coming on, man. I really appreciate it. And I definitely want to have you on as we get closer to free agency. And throughout the offseason, as it's going to be a wild, wild ride here for the time.

Yes, yes, it is. Yeah, and thanks for having me, man. I appreciate it. Yeah, I really enjoyed having you coming on. So we'll be back tomorrow with another episode. If this trade goes through, I'll break it down for you all tomorrow. So stay tuned for that. Hope you all have a great day, and I will talk to you all down.