Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Does the bottom six need another scorer?

Episode Date: July 3, 2023

Happy Monday! Hunter starts off the latest episode of the show by touching on the moves that were made to the bottom six over the weekend. He discusses why they help the unit defensively but also why they may not get as much offense from it. He dives into Matt Nieto's numbers and why he benefitted from playing in San Jose's top six this past season before looking at how Lars Eller doesn't bring as much offense as he used to. He then argues that the Penguins mainly have two fourth lines right now and that they don't really have anyone who can step into the top six when needed. Who is the 3C on the team? Is that a concern? After that, Hunter discusses the latest on the Erik Karlsson situation and whether or not the team is still involved in trade talks. He then brings up the report that David Pagnotta had over the weekend and argues why the Penguins cannot, in any circumstance, trade Marcus Pettersson in a package for Erik Karlsson. It would be an absolute wreck. Finally, to end the show, he discusses the Tristan Jarry contract and what improvements he wants to see from him this upcoming season, outside of just staying healthy.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!FanDuelMake Every Moment More. Don’t miss the chance to get your No Sweat First Bet up to TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in Bonus Bets when you go FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kyle Dubas made a lot of moves regarding the Pittsburgh Penguins bottom six of the weekend. But just how much better is that unit heading into the season? I'm going to give you my full thoughts and analysis on that coming up right after this. You're Locked-on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Your team every day. Hello, welcome back to another episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast.

I am your host, Hunter Hodes, and I'll follow me. on Twitter at Hunter Hodes, all the shows, Twitter at Ellen Orange for Penguins. And of course, thank you all so much for making this your first listen slash watch of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. So over the weekend, Kyle Dubas signed three brand new players to play in the bottom six this upcoming season, Mat Netto, Noel Chari, and Lars Eller. And when I look at it, especially after a couple of days after all the signings were made, I do think the Penguins' Bottom Six is a little bit better compared to where it was at the end

of this past season, but not as much as other people are saying. I do think the unit is better defensively. They're not going to be hemmed in their own zone giving up a bunch of chances slash goals against. But I also don't think this is going to be a unit that's going to be scoring quite a few goals to fully help out the top six. It's going to be similar in that department

for the bottom six of last year, but it's going to be better than last year's bottom six defensively and on the penalty kill. I do think those two things were big with Dubis and the coaching staff. They want to get the PK back to being a top five, top 10 team in the league, and they want to have a bottom six that's just kind of no event hockey. If they're not scoring, they're not giving up chances, and they want to just leave the game up to the top six to win.

And on a lot of nights, that works. But on others, when the top six is not doing anything, you need a bottom six that's going to be able to carry the load a little bit at times, and I just don't know if the bottom six as constructed right now can do that in the offensive zone. Bear with me here, because obviously this can change heading into the season. When I look at the bottom six right now, I'm just two mock lines that I came up with. McCall Granlin on the left wing, Lars Ellor at third line center, Drew O'Connor, Azure third line left wing, Jeff Carter, as your fourth line, right wing,

No Achari as your fourth line center and Matt Nietto as your fourth line left wing. Where is the true third line center of that group? I still think the penguins are badly missing. A true third line center right now that can come in and score you 16, 17, upwards of 20 goals a season. That's not Achari or Lars Eller, especially not anymore. There was a time where I do think Ellerer, was one of the better third line centers in the league. But that time has passed.

It was about 2013, 14, all up to about 2017, 18, 2018, 19, maybe the season after that. But since then, he's been on a steady decline. He only had 10 goals and 23 points this past season. That production is good for a fourth liner. But it's not good for people who think he should be the team's third line center. And also, usually when you have a good 3C, this player can step up and play top six minutes when a top player goes out, like a Cindy Crosby, like an Nifgeny Malkin. I'm sorry, my friends.

I don't think Ellerer can do that at this point in his career. He may give you some of the defensive impacts. He ranks in the 60th percentile for even-strength defense, but in even-strength offense, he only ranks in the 41st percentile, goals per 60, 38 percentile, Windsor replacement, 32nd percentile, finishing ability, ranks in the bottom third of the league. He's not known for his offense. Maybe he can step up for a game or two when one of Crosby and all can get hurt.

But in like a seven to ten game stretch, that's not going to cut it. It's not. And that's why this team still needs to find a way to add a true, third line center to this bottom six. Because when I look at it right now, I don't think it's a hot take to say that these two lines are two really good fourth lines. Sure, you may get 10 to 11 goals out of Lars Eller.

You may get 9 to 10, 11 goals out of Matt Nietto. I'm still a little bit skeptical of him because of his 12 goals last season, eight pain with the sharks in top six minutes and while playing with Eric Carlson. He's not going to be getting those minutes with the penguins. How much will those numbers go down? He'll still chip in, but is it going to be 12 goals? Is it going to be a little bit less?

I don't know. What's going to happen with Jeff Carter? Funny enough, Jeff Carter outproduced Lars Eller last year, and he's washed. Jeff Carter had 13 goals and 29 points last season. He also outproduced Matt Nietto last season. Oh, and he also outproduced Nootchari. Don't get me wrong. I like these additions, and I do think the Penguins are going to be a better team defensively in their own zone.

I just don't know where a lot of the offense is coming from in the bottom six. And again, when injuries do happen, Crosby and Malkin are not going to play 82 games again that's not the coming season. I would be stunned. This was the first time ever that they both played 82 games in the same season. The chances of that happening again are really low. Who from that bottom six right now can step up and give you top six minutes? It's not Jeff Carter.

It's not Michael Granlin. It's not Lars Heller. It's not Nolachari. It's none of these guys. Maybe Drew O'Connor in a pinch if he pans out. Other than that, I don't really see a player. in this bottom six, that can truly step up when needed. And I think this bottom six, while it's going to be better defensively,

it's still putting a lot of pressure on the top six to continue to produce every single game. We saw that last season, except that the Penguins had a black hole of a third line that couldn't do anything offensively or defensively, but had a fourth line where it was low event hockey, really good defensive impacts, not as much offense. Right now the penguins have two of those kind of lines, not bringing enough offense, but they're not going to kill you defensively. They're still relying on the top six to score and win you games on an every night basis. And this is why I do think, my friends, the penguins need another piece or two

in that bottom six. If they can somehow get out of McCall Grahamlin's contract, I don't think anything's going to happen with Jeff Carter. That's wishful thinking. But I do think they need another player or two down there that can give them adequate production on a third line role, maybe 16 to 20 goals, 40, 45 points somewhere around those lines because I don't see anyone in the bottom six right now

giving the penguins that kind of production. I just don't. And there's a player out there right now who honestly fits that role. And that is Tomas Datar, 20 goals, 48 points this past season, ranks in the 77th percentile for 5-on-five even strength offense, 86-8-60 percentile for transition, 88 percentile for five-on-five defensive impact. He is an all-around really good winger. He can play on the left and the right. He would obviously want to have to play for the penguins,

and they are over the cap right now, so you have to have that into the equation. But he would make a lot of sense on a third-line world and bring you a lot more offense to the table. Oh, yeah. And he can give you quite a good defensive impact. But when I look at this bottom six right now, I do think it's better,

but there's not enough oomph down there. And that's one of the main things I really, really want Kyle to hopefully work on during this offseason is getting some more umph down there, a player who can score a little bit more and someone who can play in the top six when injuries occur because I don't think the Penguins have any of that in their bottom six right now. Obviously, it's still July 3rd. There is a crap ton of time left. But right now, I see the Penguins as having two really good fourth lines instead of a

third line and then maybe a no event fourth line that's not going to score you a lot of goals but that's not going to kill you in their defensive zone that's what i see right now again i don't have too many problems with the signings i just want to see more offense brought to the table in the bottom six at some point that will wrap up this first segment of the locked on penguins podcast coming up in the second segment we're going to get into the latest on the Penguin's pursuit of San Jose Sharks defenseman Eric Carlson. But before we get into that, take your first link at betting MLB on Fandall and get 10 times your first spend amount in bonus bets up to $200.

And that's right. Just bet $20 and you'll win and lose. That's $200 you can spend betting everything from the money line to the over-under to who will even hit the first home run in a game. So sign up today and visit fandle.com slash locked on to get up to $200 in bonus bets. That's fandall.com slash locked on. Fandle, the official partner of Major League Baseball and locked on. All right, I'm back here on this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast.

I am your host, Hunter Hodes, Marita. Follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow the show's Twitter at L.O.Nsore Penguins. And of course, thank you all so much for making this your first listens slash watch of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. So there's been a lot of rumors slash speculation about Eric Carlson and the Penguins over this past weekend.

On Saturday, you had Elliott Friedman going on NHL network and saying that the Penguins are one of the last teams standing for Carlson, along with the Carolina Hurricanes. Then today on Monday, you had Frank Servali going on the DFO rundown saying that he thinks the Penguins have cooled on the Carlson talks and that he doesn't think the hurricanes are a fit for Carlson. He kind of sees the Seattle Cracken as a team to beat. Friedman, on the other hand, says that he thinks Seattle is out. So two different stories. I'm sure it probably meets in the middle. I personally think the penguins are still involved with Carlson, but it's only going to be on their terms. And that's why they cannot include a player like Marcus Pedersen in a deal to get Carlson.

Over the weekend, David Pagnota of the fourth period noted that Marcus Pedersen's name has come up in trade talks regarding Carlson between the penguins and the sharks. That is too far for me. Sure, Carlson would make the offense really good among all the defensemen, but the defensive side of the rink would suffer big time. That's just how good Pedersen is. Right now, the left side of Pedersen, Graves, P.O. Joseph slash Ty Smith. It's pretty decent. But when you take Pedersen away, it's Graves, P.O. and Ty Smith.

That's not good enough. I like Ryan Graves quite a bit. The term is maybe a little Mitch on that contract, but he's still a pretty good player. He'll bring you good value, scoring goals, decent on the penalty kill, but he's not Marcus Pedersen. The only thing Graves is better at over Pedersen

is scoring goals. This past season, Marcus Pedersen ranked in the 81st percentile for five-on-five even-strength offense and the 87th percentile for even-strength defense. If you compare that to Ryan Graves, 54th percentile for offense,

39th percentile for defense. Patterson on the PK, 97th percentile for PK ability, 41 percentile for penalty penalty kill for Graves. Outside of goal scoring, Pedersen is a better overall defenseman than Graves. He's coming off one heck of a year.

I'm not willing to trade him just to make the offense a little bit better among the defensemen because the defensive side of the ice is going to struggle daytime. Think about it. See, the penguins do trade for Carlson, and Pedersen goes the other way. Your defense looks something like Ryan Graves with Crystal Tang, P.O. Joseph with Eric Carlson,

is P.O. Joseph really going to cover up the warts that Carlson will bring on the defensive? defensive end of the rank. No, he won't. But someone like Marcus Pedersen, who is the best defensive defenseman on the team, will do that. That is the only way

I would make this trade. As if Pedersen is staying as a member of the Penguins. And I also know out there that there are people that don't want the Penguins to go get Carlson. I very much understand that take. It doesn't bring a lot of good defensive value. heck, he ranks in the zero percentile.

If you look at Jay Fresh's charts, the fifth percentile for a five-on-five, even-strength defense if you go to evolving wow. He stinks. But that wouldn't matter as much if you have a defensive-minded partner with him. You part with Pedersen, that option immediately goes down the drain. P.O. Joseph isn't going to be that guy. Ty Smith won't be that guy. And I can sure as hell tell you all that Ryan Graves is also not going to

to be that guy. I am still down for the penguins to trade for Carlson, but it has to be on their own terms. It has to be a package that makes sense for that. They don't even have the cap space right now. They would have to move on from quite a few big contracts, namely Jeff Petrie. I am sure Mikhail Granlin would also be involved. Maybe Jan Ruda gets involved in some capacity. Probably a first round pick as well. Maybe a top prospect. It would have to be a pretty big deal. Heck, I think you would have to have a third team involved. That was. reported over the weekend by both Josh Yoey and Rob Rossi. This won't just be a two-team deal.

It can't. The penguin salary cap situation doesn't allow that right now. It did a couple of days ago, but that's not the reality that we live in right now. So the penguins are still involved with Carlson, I believe, but it can't be with Patterson going the other way. That will make the defensive group worse, head. in the next season. Even though you're going to get a lot of points from Carlson, a lot of point production, the defensive end of the rink is going to stink. They will give up a lot more goals if Carlson is on that defensive group and Pedersen is not, rather than if both of them

are on the same defensive group. So that's where I stand when it comes to that situation and the latest on the Eric Carlson situation as a whole. I am still a favor of getting him, but it has to make sense. Let me know what you think about the Eric Carlson situation. Down in the comments on YouTube, you can also send me a DM on social media. I do think right now the Penguins' bigger need is third line center, but man, the team would be so much fun if they did go out and get Carlson. Every game would be 8-7, 7, 6, maybe even 9-8, big throwback to the 80s for that kind of style of play.

All gas, no breaks, would be hilarious, but I also understand the skepticism that people will have if the penguins are able to get Carlson. Just can't involve a really good top four defenseman because Pedersen is that dude. He is. But that will do it for this second segment of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. Coming up to end the show, we're going to touch on more regarding Tristan Jari's contract and why the penguins are making a huge investment. and then that's coming up right after this. All right, I'm back doing this episode of the Locked-Hung Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hodes.

Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow the shows Twitter at L.O. Armstrongstor Penguins. And of course, thank you all so much for making this your first listen slash watch of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. So Tristanjari, five years, $5.375 million per season to be the goaltender to close out the Sydney Crosby of Guinea-Malkin. Wistletang era. I am still kind of of the belief that Kyle was maybe getting a little cornered there as these goalies were starting to come off the market, maybe getting a little bit nervous. So he just

caved for the term. But I also know that of the free agents available at the time, Jari was by far the best one. And there is a way this can work. If he stays healthy and gets back to the form that we saw from him in 2021, 2022, this will be a perfectly fine deal. I am usually someone who was against Pengoli's term, but if he plays up to this kind of contract, it's going to age very, very nicely. And that 2021, 2021, 2022 season was, I think Jari's best season as an NHO goaltender, finished 11th in goals saved above expected, with 12.8 played in 58 games. 9-19, say percentage, 2.42 goals against average.

He was tied for 10th, actually, with Ilius Sorokin, who just signed that massive eight-year extension with the Islanders for goals he above expected with 12.8. That is just how good he was that season. And there is a way that he can get back to that level. It's all about him being consistent, him staying healthy. That's obviously the biggest one. but the one thing I really want to see him improve on for this season

and in seasons after that one, this one, excuse me, outside of him staying healthy is his five-on-five high-dangered state percentage. He was a wreck with that this past season. His five-on-five high-dangered percentage this past season ranked 97th among all annual goaltenders. That is not close to good enough. season before where he, I think, had his best season of his career, finished 23rd in that respective category. He has to be better with the chances 10 to 15 feet away from the net.

You can make all the low danger saves you want, like, you know, 40, 45 feet out, medium danger as well. You can make all those saves, 20, 25 feet out, heck even 30 feet out. But if you're not doing your job in close, you're going to cost the team. quite a few games. How many times this past season would everyone say, man, you really need a save there? Well, that's

going to be a big one heading into this season and heading into this contract as a whole. You need him to make big saves in big moments and not crumble under pressure. And I understand that six-game sample against the Islanders

it's from a few years ago. That's really the only playoff sample we've had of him outside of that game 7 against the Rangers but I think that one's also a little unfair to use

because he was playing on a broken foot and I also think he played his tail off in that game. But I want to see him perform better in high leverage situations and make more big time saves from about 5, 10, 15 feet out.

I don't need him to steal games for this team, but I do need him to make a few big, saves every now and then because I think that was a big thing that was lacking this past season injured or not. But I'm curious to see how this deal ages. It's a big ticket. But if Andy Kyoto can get a lot out of them and he stays healthy, there's no reason to think that Jari can't be one of the better goaltenders in the league. I do think when healthy, Tristan,

is in that 8 to 12 range in terms of goalies in the league. He's not one of the elite 5 to 7 goalies who should be getting all the term and all the money they want, but I think he's just a step below that where when healthy, you can see the talent jumps out at you. Just has to stay consistent and has to stay healthy. There were so many times this past season where it looked like he was going to run away with the net again, but boom, he would have a bad game. And yeah, he was also playing a bit banged up. But that can't happen again this upcoming season, injured or not.

So I'm curious to see how this goes. He needs to get better in the big situations. And I would love for him to prove so many people wrong, including myself, because I am still a bit nervous about this contract. There is definitely a non-zero chance that it ages like, milk, especially if he doesn't stay healthy, and he's inconsistent. But if he's able to get to his true potential and play at the level that he did, actually even higher than a level that he did during the 2022 season,

the sky could be the limit for this goaltender. But that will wrap up this episode of the Locked on Penguins podcast. I really appreciate all of you listening slash watching this one. I have another episode for you all on Tuesday before I have Josh Yoey on the show on Wednesday, five episodes again for you all this week. Another five next week, even though I am going to the beach this upcoming weekend, I'm going to be heading down to Virginia Beach to get away from things here in Pittsburgh. Just relax on the beach during the day.

After that week, the show will go down to three episodes a week. But I really appreciate all of you listening slash watching this one. There's 4,400 people that tuned in to the bonus episode on Saturday. You all rock. So again, thank you so much for tuning in. I very much appreciate it. I'll be back with another episode for you all on Tuesday.