Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Forecasting Drew O'Connor's next contract with the Penguins!

Episode Date: July 31, 2023

Happy Monday, and the final day of July! Hunter and Pat are back for another fresh episode of the podcast and they start the show with some front-office news from over the weekend as Amanda Kessel was hired to the Penguins front office full-time. The two dive into what that means for the front office and what her expertise is likely going to be before looking at how this is the same role that Jason Spezza had under Dubas in Toronto. They also dive into what their future could look like as a hockey executive in the NHL. Is she going to be a full-time GM one day? Could that be with the Penguins? After that, they analyze why this is a big week for Drew O'Connor and the Penguins since his arbitration hearing is on Friday. They look at what he could sign for after doing some digging on other players who are close in terms of production while also thinking about what his full role will be on the team for this season. Finally, they end the show by celebrating Evgeni Malkin's birthday and looking back at some of his best moments as a Pittsburgh Penguin.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!FanDuelMake Every Moment More. Don’t miss the chance to get your No Sweat First Bet up to TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in Bonus Bets when you go to FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Pittsburgh Penguins made a new front office hire over the weekend. What does it mean for the team going forward? Here Pat and I's answers on that right after this. You're Locked-on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Your team every day. Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast.

I am one of your hosts, Hunter Hodes. That is Patrick Camp, the newest co-host of the show. show. He made his debut on Friday. You can follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. You can follow the show's Twitter at L.O. Armstrongs for Penguins. And you can follow Pat's Twitter at synonym for wet. So over the weekend, Pat, well, I haven't been on social media too much recently. I've been kind of just taken a little bit of a break. It's the dog days of summer. There's really not much going on. But Penguins did make a new front office hire. It was first noticed by CK 404 response code of Penguin's Twitter. Really good person for Penguins content.

on there. It was later confirmed by Seth Rorba of the Trib and then Taylor Haas of D.K. Pittsburgh Sports. She is now the special assistant to president of hockey operations, Kyle Dubus, and the GM, even though the Penguins don't have a GM right now, but technically they also kind of do it because it's Kyle Dubus. The role that Amanda has is the same role that Jason Spetsah had under Dubus in Toronto. And before she had this role, she was a member of the Penguins. executive management program for a year. She was working alongside executives within the Penguins Partnership, communication and broadcast departments and hockey operations.

And it seems like Kyle Dubas liked her enough to give her a full-time position. And this just goes to show, I think, Pat, that Dubus really wants to build out a very diverse hockey operations department. And he sees Kessel as a big part of the future of this franchise. And someone who I think could be an assistant general manager really soon in the NHL and potentially a GM later down the line. Yeah, this kind of feels like the natural next step for what she was doing the past year. Because if you recall that management training program that she was a part of, like you said,

she went to basically every department in the organization for a period of time to kind of get a feel of what happens in each department. And you got to figure, you know, she already does the Keller and Kess podcast, which is a very good, listened great insights into women's hockey. If you got the time to listen to that, it's very worth your time. And, you know, she's been a Olympian. She's been a college superstar. And she's very involved with the PHWPA. And this kind of feels like, you know, like I said, the natural next step. She's going to probably want to go into some sort of managerial role in a front office and hockey operations. Because, you know, I always. think of the tweet the, you know, everyday life. Oh, I'm 31 years old. I've got my whole life in front

of me, sports broadcaster. Here they come. 33 years old, the oldest player in the league. A miracle. And Amanda Kessel's 31. She's one of the older players on that Olympic team for Team USA, and the younger generation is really starting to come out of college and make their mark on that roster. So, you know, this is the next step for her. And I think it's going to be similar to what Jason Spetsa did in Toronto. She's going to be there for all the big decisions. She's going to have a say. And maybe it's not in Pittsburgh.

Maybe it's somewhere else. But this feels like putting her on track to become an assistant GM or a GM in the NHL. I would agree with that. And I do agree as well, Pat, that she is going to be involved in every decision that Kyle Dubus makes for the roster and just everything, I think, in general, with the organization. I'm super happy about this move. And the one part, you know, about the title that I think we can dive into as well.

Special assistant to president of hockey operations and the GM. I think on numerous occasions, Kyle Dubas has said that he would like to hire a GM. It has not happened yet, even though that he has been on the job for almost two months now, but he could be doing interviews right now, and we don't know about them because they could be doing them in secret. Do you still think this leads to him hiring a general manager at some point? I think so. I mean, as he's kind of said and it's been reported, and you said it already in this episode, that he wants to build out a pretty robust hockey operations department, and that would be a general manager.

So I think the time's coming. I also think that the time between when he was hired to the draft to free agency, there wasn't much runway there. So he kind of assumed, hey, I'm going to be the general manager as well as the president of hockey operations. And I also don't think he's in a rush. And nor does he really need to be because he's been an assistant GM and a GM long enough that he has an idea of how this league works. He's made his contacts in the league. He knows who to deal with. He knows the agents. So on and so forth. So this idea that, oh, he's got to get moving and hire a general manager,

I think,'s a little, a little exaggerated simply because, too, he inherited a little bit of a mess. And he's got to fix that before anything else, I think. So, you know, I think we'll get there one day. And, you know, for the Amanda Kessel thing, the one name that came to mind for me was Haley Wickenheiser. She's the assistant GM in Toronto. And it shows you the kind of front office Kyle Dubus is going to build. It's not going to be the old, the, you know, the 30 hockey men who come in and the dinosaurs,

Pat. The dinosaurs. It's going to be people from different walks of the sport, whether it's women. hockey, college hockey, international hockey. It won't just be people who've been circling around the NHL for the last 30, 40 years. And given the spot the Penguins are in as an organization, that's the way to go because they're going to have to get creative. And, you know, this is just another part of the diverse hockey operations department.

You've seen Pat also the Penguins have three to four data analytics jobs open. So you're going to see a very robust front office here. and another woman that I thought he was maybe going to be interested in hiring as well, Alexander Mandricki of the Seattle Cracking. I think she is also going to be a GM at some point in the NHL. Going back to Kessel for just a second though, Pat, I know she's going to be involved in everything when it comes to the hockey operations decisions. What do you think her expertise is going to be in though when it comes to just everything in here?

And I want to say this is just complete speculation. I've got no sources. I've got nobody telling me this. If I had to guess, it would probably be roster building just because of her experience on the U.S. Olympic team. And she has been a key part of that roster for the last few years. And she has seen the way they've cycled in new talent. They've had older players go out or take on different roles.

So having that kind of firsthand knowledge of what was and still is for the most part an elite roster, she has seen how you can transition that to either sustain success or do a quick retool and get your team back to where it needs to go. Now, obviously, a little bit different when it comes to international hockey, less restrictions, more of a talent pool, things like that. But the general idea of it of saying, okay, we've had this core for six, seven, eight, plus years, they're starting to age out. we need to get younger talent in here.

She has a good firsthand experience of being one of those people. So for where the penguins are as a franchise, I think that's going to be probably what she brings to the table, at least to start. I'm really excited on it. That's for sure, man. I mean, with how good Team USA has been,

especially in the women's game for the last several years, she can bring elements from there to the Penguins front office. And I'm really excited about it. I think she's going to do a great job. They don't call her best Kessel for no reason, Pat. That's the main thing here. I asked her that question at the then NWHL All-Star Game in 2017, and she was so much like her brother,

just laughed it off and was like, I don't know about all that. I was just like, come on, answer the question. You know you are. You got to get a little, have fun with it. Come on, Alamanda. But no, like, I'm really excited about it, and I think she's going to do great job in the Penguins front office.

Coming up in the second segment, Pat and I are going to look into forecasting Drew O'Connor's contract, as this is a big week for the Penguins and Drew O'Connor. His salary arbitration date is set for this Friday, August 4th. But first we have to discuss Fandle. Take your first thing of Benning MLB on Fanduel and get 10 times your first bet amount in bonus bets up to $200. That's right.

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Fandle, the official partner of Major League Baseball and Locked on. All right, Pat and I are back on this Monday edition of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. Again, I am Hunter Hodes. That is Patrick Tam. So as I tease, Pat, big week for Drew O'Connor and the Penguins. His arbitration case is on the last possible day for all cases Friday, August 4th. I can't lie. I honestly thought they would have had a deal done by now because this should not be a hard contract to negotiate.

But I also think there may be some other things at work here, especially when it comes to the Eric Carlson situation. But for today, we're going to look at what he could get and just looking at some other contracts that have been signed just around the league RFA-wise. So, Pat, I'm going to hand the floor over to you. when you look at Drew O'Connor, what do you think is a good projection for him after looking at some comparable contracts? You know, this one was tough for me. And one, let's hope we don't get hit with the podcasters curse. And as soon as we hit published, they announced, oh, they've agreed to a new deal. But I mean, what I did yesterday, because, you know, we, Hunter and I talked about, you know, okay, this is the week of DOC. We got to figure out, you know, what we think's going to happen.

And I went very rudimentary on my research for this. I basically went to an NHL stat website. I put in a minimum of 45 games played because he played 46 this year. And then I kind of just scrolled down to guys who had similar outputs this year. Three names that I came up with here are Austin, Nicholas Albae Cubell and Pierre Eduardo Belmar. And because they played similar games, you know, and they played similar games. and they put up a similar amount of points. They were in the teens for points.

They played, you know, in that same range of games. And they're pretty solid bottom six forwards. Now, I don't want to say this to the extent where I'm saying this is all Drew O'Connor could ever become. I do think he has a high ceiling because every time he's got a shot, he's been effective. And the way I look at it is I think he's probably going to get in the 175. did maybe two range because that's about what those guys made. And when I look at it from the standpoint of what this negotiation is going to be,

should they head to arbitration, the penguins are going to come in and say, if we gave you 46 games this year, you put up 11 points. That's not fantastic. That's not awful either. So we're not going to give you a big deal. Same thing with, you know, from his side. he's going to come in and say, listen, you finally gave me a long shot. I played over half the season.

And I posted career highs and goals, assists, and points with 5, 6 for 11. So I think that's where they're held off on. So I look at it, I think he's probably due a little bit of a raise, you know, 1-8, 1-9 against the cap, 2, 3 years for the deal. and I think he does project to become a middle six forward, a guy who can play third line minutes and fill in on the second line when there's an injury or two. So I think, you know, as far as a guy who was an undrafted college free agent signing,

he's been productive. And I don't blame him for taking this to arbitration, especially a player in his case with a flat cap. Yeah, I mean, and he only made less than 800K, K, this past season. He's definitely due a little bit of a raise. When I was doing some comparables as well, Pat, one of the players who I came up with was Alexei Torekchenko, who signed a two-year, $2.5 million contract about a couple weeks ago with the St. Louis Blues. He was in line for arbitration as well, had 10 goals, 19 points this past season,

69 games, O'Connor, five goals, 11 points, only eight less points. So that kind of deal, I think, could make some sense for the Penguins. I mean, that cap, pit total is what, 1.25 million per season. I think if O'Connor gets that, no one is really going to get too upset, but I also could see him getting a little less than that, maybe something like a 900K per season, a million, so maybe two years, two million, two years, one point eight million total. I don't know if he's going to get close to two million per year, but I could see him getting something like 1.25 million per or something like that. I also look at someone like Joe Villano of the Detroit Red Wings, played in 81 games this past.

season, nine goals, 20 points in that time. He was not eligible for arbitration, so I know it's not a total comparison there, but he's still not signed by the Red Wings, and, you know, he's only projected to get around I think 1.5, 1.6. So a little more than O'Connor, but again, like, it's just so tough to project this kind of contract because he didn't even play 50 games this past season. That's the thing. Yeah, and, you know, when I looked at his other two contracts that he's had, they're very

wonky contracts where like there's certain amount of money, there's certain amount of bonuses, the cap hits silly. So like I kind of just went more for cap hit than I did what he's going to make because I do think if there's one thing Kyle Dubus has been pretty good at in his tenure all long, both with Toronto and now here in Pittsburgh is massaging the salary cap to make it so, you know, you're paying a guy X, but he's only counting for Y. So I, you know, it's really tough for me to project, especially because like I said, I do think the guy has some potential to be a solid middle six forward with the way he plays, the size he has. I mean, I've said it before. I said it, you know, to Josh Taylor of 937 when I've been on his show before. Drew O'Connor fits the model

of a player Mike Sullivan really likes. He's got some foot speed. He's big. He's aggressive. And that has value in the system Mike Sullivan and the Penguins play. I agree. And I like the way he forced checks in the offensive zone. I thought his shot improved this past season as well. If he can be like that offensive anchor on a third line that maybe is surrounded by a couple of other defensive players, maybe like a Lars Eller if they want him there, Matt Nietto and Noel O'Chari, I think that can work for the Penguins. I am higher on him than some others.

And the other player on my comparables is Jack McBain, who actually just agreed to a deal with the Arizona Coyotes. Two years, a little less than $1.6 million per season, had 12 goals, 26 points, 82 games. this past year. That's maybe the best case scenario for O'Connor this upcoming season, Pat, if he can have double-digit goals, double-digit assists, you know, 25, 30 points, making 900K to a million. If he can sign a deal in that range and also have that kind of production,

I would be thrilled with that, to be honest. That's just the other comparable that I had. Yeah, and that's kind of where I was going with that this in general was, you know, we don't need DOC to become an offensive. Juggardot. Be awesome if he did. But, you know, 10, 15, 15, 20 assists, 35, 30 points, you know, be a defensively accountable player in the offensive zone and all three zones. I mean, and then just don't get caved in defensively. We don't need you to be an offensive juggernaut. When you're out there, be out there to make sure that you're not making all of the

burden fall upon the top six, which was the penguin's biggest issue last year. The bottom six in general was just flat out awful. I mean, they couldn't score. And worst of all, Pat, they could not prevent the puck from going in the back of their own net, minus 22 at five on five when the top two lines are not on the ice. I understand the plan this year, of course. Get better defensively in your bottom six, let the top six go to work. It's still risky.

But hey, at least there's an actual plan in place for the bottom six. And I'm just hoping that O'Connor can provide at least a sense. semblance of offense down there. Yeah, and I know he's become a public enemy for a lot of Penguins Twitter, but Jeff Carter was the most consistent score in that bottom six. That's bad. And here's the thing. I'm not as down on Jeff Carter as a lot of other people. I do think if you move him to a wing and just let him focus mainly on offense, you're going to have a nice little scoring threat in your bottom six. And but if he's playing third line center, then that's the biggest issue because he's, the point of which he's in his career, he's not a center anymore.

And I don't mean that in a negative way. Just play wing and use the shot that you have to score some goals. I mean, if you can still score you up 10, 12, 13 goals next year, that's fine. I mean, I don't expect him to come out of the lineup. That's the thing, Pat. I mean, all these people out here are just expecting him to be off the team in some capacity or a healthy scratch every game. That's not going to happen, people.

That's just, that's not a reality. I mean, unless you convince him to retire, but that's not going to happen either. Well, and that's the other thing is because of the age contract he has, it doesn't matter if he retires, gets traded, gets scratched. They're still paying it. So if you can talk to Jeff Carter this offseason and say, listen, you're playing right wing, you're going to be on the third line, some nights you might be on the fourth. And we're not going to play you all 82.

We're going to play you 55 to 60. You're going to get a couple nights off here and there. And what we're going to want for you is to produce in the playoffs. Because one thing people forget, the two playoffs, Jeff Carter has been a penguin. He's been pretty good. Yeah, I mean, the Rangers series, he was not bad, except when Mike Sullivan put him up there at the top line center spot for some very odd reason, when they had a Gennie Malkin healthy.

That was right after Jacob Trubo concussed Sidney Crosby in game five, which is obviously very unfortunate. And then he was also very good during the Islander series. I don't think he's going to be that good if the Penguins make the playoffs this upcoming season, but at least he can maybe give you a couple of goals in the playoffs when maybe the top six is down a little bit. But that will wrap up this second segment. Coming up to end the show, it is someone's very special birthday on Monday.

Evgeny Malkin has turned 37. Pat and I are going to discuss that right after this. All right, we're back here in this episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hodes. You're going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow the show's Twitter, Eleanorce of Penguins. And, of course, thank you all so much for making this your first list in slash watch today. We are free and available on all platforms.

Also is here is Patrick Gamp, my co-host. for the show. So Pat, 37 for Gino today. It is crazy how time has flown by. Remember when he was just a young kid in his early 20s and I was just in elementary school watching him take over the league by storm? I still always say that 2009 cup run there was not a better player in the league than of getting Malkin, the way that he took over games like it was nothing in any series, whether it was Philadelphia, whether it was Washington, especially Carolina where he was just a one-man wrecking crew played very well against Detroit as well, very deserving of the consmite. But he has lived up to the hype and then some.

There's a chance that he's going to hit 1,300 points this upcoming season. I think there's also a very good chance that he's going to score his 500th goal this upcoming season. In honor of his birthday, just how do you want to reminisce on a Pani Malkin? You know what I do want to reminisce on a little bit? If you got time to, or tomorrow, or just sometime in the next week or so, loyal, locked on listener, go search Sam Kason, who used to be one of the penguin, he used to be one half of Penguins inside scoop on Twitter, and he was a team writer. He wrote a retrospective a couple years back about how Evgeny Malkin got to the Penguins.

And it's the closest thing to a spy movie that you'll ever see, the way they got him over here. And it, you know, it's defection. It's getting people off of planes, keeping from getting back on to planes, hiding out in a safe house. Like, it's wild. And, you know, we, we take this guy for granted now because of how great he's been over the past almost 20 years. But, like, his story of getting to Pittsburgh is an awesome one.

And, you know, I just, I look at it and you think about this golden era. of Penguins hockey. And yes, Sidney Crosby, most hyped prospect, most, you know, savior of the sport,

savior of the franchise, all that stuff. But, man, Gennie Malkin was second overall behind Alex Ovechkin. And despite being that kind of shadow behind Alex Ovechkin,

he's not as far behind to me as many people think. Yeah, Ovechkin's the greatest goal score to ever play hockey. But, man, I have never seen in my years anybody able to take over a game the way of Gennie Malkin does when he wants to in his prime. It was very reminiscent of Mary O'LeMew. I think you hit the nail on the head there, Pat.

And another season I really want to highlight for Gino is the 2011-2012 season when Crosby was out for a long time with a concussion. And he scored 50, won the Art Ross, won the heart. and carried the penguins into the playoffs. That season was vintage Malkin. Another one I want to highlight was him coming back from that massive elbow injury. Remember, in the 2016 playoffs, he missed most of the second half of that season. I believe it was when his elbow got bumped into during a game against the Columbus Woojacket. You could see him holding it coming off the ice.

And he was outstanding in the playoffs or the Penguins that obviously helped him win the Stanley Cup. He came back during that Rangers series. And I'll never forget, this was game four against the Rangers. The Penguins are blowing them out. And the puck comes to him from the point. He winds up a slapper and just blows it past Henrik Wonkwis. It was probably one of the hardest slapshots I have ever seen him just fire throughout his career. And I was like, oh, man, that elbow at least must be feeling decently good for you to wind it up like that.

But I've just had the most fun watching him throughout his career. And Penguins fans should be absolutely blessed that they have had a player like this produced at the level that he has been at throughout his career. And he's going to go down, Pat, as one of the five best Russian players to ever play the game, I think. Oh, without a doubt. I mean, I said it on our last show about how much I was a big fan of James Neal and how when he was here, like I thought the chemistry he had with Malkin was one of the best that I've ever seen. But he also had a description of Gino that was spot on to me is when he said, if Gennie Malkin is at his best when he's a bully,

when he just says, give me the puck and let me go. And when he just decides to start galloping and just take over a game, he can't do it so much anymore just because 37, a lot of miles on that body. but he would just, nobody was close. The size, the speed, the skill, just all of that together in one package. And you brought up the slap shot. How can we not talk about the 2008 Eastern Conference finals?

Yes. Against the Philadelphia Flyers. The screw you, go, as I like to call it. I can say another word, but we're PG on this show. Yes, we can't use that language here. Mike Richards just blasts Malkin behind the net, behind the Flyers net. And as he gets up to recover, Sergey Gonchar and Max Talbot go to work on the penalty kill, might I add, they get the puck to Malkin at the opposing blue line. He comes in and

just takes a slap shot from what? 10 feet away from Marty Barron and puts it in the net. And I'm fully convinced that would have been like a Disney movie thing if it hit Barron. And he put so much force behind that slap shot. It would just drove him back into the net. would have been a goal anyway. I think so too. And yes, he was basket hanging or cherry picking, as everyone likes to say. But hey, I would do that in that situation, too, especially after getting decked from behind the net by Mike Richards.

Heck, yeah, I'm going to stay up the blue line, see if the puck comes to me. And I'm going to go in and be like, you know what, Mike Richards, screw you. I'm going to fire this puck as hard as I can. And then when I'm going back to the bench, I'm going to look at you and be like, yeah, You made me do that because when you make Givgeny Malkin mad, you are in a losing battle. That's another big thing, Pat. And Vigero is not a pretty sight for the opposition. And I mean, he wasn't cherry picking.

Like, as much as we all love to joke about Mike Richards, in that era, in that time, you got hit by Mike Richards. You got hit. Yes. Like that wasn't him just getting bumped off. He got flattened. And that's hard to do, especially for of getting Malkin, who is a big boy. I know Mike Richards is a pretty big dude as well and he can throw the body, but when you can lay of getting Malkin out like that, you are a pretty known hitter.

And of course, all of the Gino bombs on the power play over the years from the right half wall, that is his office on the power play. I know he's also at the point as well a lot of times, but I can consider his office on the right half wall like I consider Halkso Detchkins on the other side, but obviously that's a little bit different because Ovetkin has scored a lot of his goals over there, but Gino has scored a good chunk of his over there, not as much, but you know what I'm saying, I think. But just what a career so far. I've been so blessed to watch him, just growing up watching him, honestly, so many amazing moments, obviously going one on five against the Tampa

Lightning and Deaking, Deakin, doing Rollison out of his pocket in the net was just amazing. And seeing him take the puck from Anthony Mantha earlier this year. That was a vintage Gino goal that brought the house down at P.B.G.C. and Serena. Also the one when I think he stole the puck from Oster Clefbaum with the Edmonton Oilers during the 2015-16 season when he roofed it past the Oilers goalie that was in net. That was a typical Gino goal as well. So, Gino, happy 37th. Here's to many, many more.

And we'll have to do this again next week, Pat, because Cindy Crosby is turning 36. I always love this time of year because these two birthdays, are so close and we can reminisce on both of their careers, especially with Malkin today. Yeah, it's, man, like, I wrote about it in my first ever column for KDCA, literally making the namesake, Penguins' perspectives, but I'm always going to analyze this team as long as they say they're going for a Stanley Cup. I'm going to analyze them thusly and hold them to that bar, but there is nothing wrong with every now and then stepping back and going, man, how lucky have we as Penguins fans been for the past 20 years?

Longer than that, to be honest. You know, going back to even the Mario and Yagraday, he was insanely good then. And just to end the show, it's been 18 years officially now since Sandy Grozzi was drafted by the Penguins. That anniversary was on the side of day. So I wanted to end the show on that note. But again, thank you all so much for making this your first listen slash watch of the day.

Pan and I will be back with another episode, either late Tuesday night or on Wednesday. We have something coming up with John Chick of Locked on New York Rangers, so look for that really soon. But again, thank you all so much for tuning in to this episode, and we will talk with you all soon.