Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Grading Ron Hextall's offseason to date, with some help from Evolving Hockey!

Episode Date: August 16, 2022

Happy Tuesday! Hunter is back with a new episode of Locked On Penguins and he starts the show by looking at where the Penguins ranked in "average contract value added per team," from Evolving Wild. He explains how it works and what they're evaluating before giving his kudos to Ron Hextall for getting a lot of great things done (No, this doesn't factor in trades and whatnot). He reminds everyone that there could be more to come, even with training camp just a month away. The Penguins still have 9 NHL defensemen, after all. After that, Hunter looks at the NHL Network's top 20 centers and why they mostly got it right regarding Sidney Crosby & Evgeni Malkin. He touches on who he'd move those two players over in their respective spots (not many) before ending the show with a thought about Jeff Petry. He explains why he's a lot more confident in Petry's ability to handle top pairing minutes if something happened to Kris Letang this season where he's out for a few games. All that, plus much more on this episode of Locked On Penguins.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello, Penguins fans. My audio should be back to, you know, the one that you all are accustomed to. I don't sound like I'm 20 feet away from Mike. I still can't believe I had that awful rookie mistake. Happy Tuesday, August 16th, just about a month away, almost from training camp now. You know, this off season continuing to fly by third week here of August. For today's show, we're going to get into a tweet I saw today from evolving wall. Jason of Penguins Twitter put it up there, but he put Evolving Wilds average contract value added per team, and it has the Penguins in a very favorable light, so I'm going to get into that. Also, going to get into the top 20 NHL centers right now that Antio Network just ran, and also how that compared to the fans, because Jayfresh did his own poll. So a couple very notable penguins are going to be on there. I'll get to that. and then, you know, some other news and notes from around the week. So that's all coming up right after this drop. You're Locked on Penguins.

Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Your team every day. Hello, welcome back to another episode of the Locked on Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hodes. Remember to follow me on Twitter. Hunter Hodes can also follow the shows, Twitter, L.O. Armstrong Penguins. and, of course, thank you all so much for making this your first list in the day.

You know it's really, we're all really in the dog days of summer because I have probably not cut my hair since the playoffs started. For those that watch on YouTube, yeah, if you can, if I turn my head to decide a little bit, yeah, that is how long it is at this point. This is why I don't ever, I don't ever not wear a hat just because it's too crazy. So hopefully that will change at some point before training camp, but still as quiet as ever on the NHL right now, nothing is happening.

I think just, again, teams that have cap space don't want to take on bad contracts and teams that don't have a lot of cap space, the prices are probably sky high from those teams that, you know, they want to have the salary dumped onto them. So we'll have to see, you know, it's created quite the standstill. I was reading from Danny Shirey, I'm of D.K. but through sports on Friday. And, I mean, he basically just said, yeah, I mean, people around the league have never

seen this sort of like a standstill right now. Yeah, you got the world juniors going on. But, you know, it's not, all the favorites are winning the U.S. The USA, just crushed everyone in their group. Canada crushed everyone in their group. They're probably both going to meet in the gold medal match. And I'm sure that's going to be quite the sight when those two teams likely clash. But to start off today's show, again, so Jason,

penguin's Twitter, J underscore A155. He posted this data from evolving while. Well, the data is from cat-friendly, but evolving while they use their model. And it's for average contract value added per team. So it looks at, you know, their projections versus what the penguins signed the players to. So, for example, you know, the penguins, you know, they were project, of all the evolving wild twins were projecting Latane to get over $9 million per year. Penguins signed in for 6.1, that's a minus 3.83 million dollar difference. That is a very good thing, at least according to the model.

Of all of the teams in the NHL, the Penguins added an average contract value 750K per contract. The only team that was better than them with the average contract value added per team for the projected cap hit versus the actual cap hit, but Toronto Maple Leafs at 1.25 million. And at 1.25, yeah. And the only 1.25, 1,250. Geez, not million. I'm just way out of it today. And the only reason it's there for Toronto is because they projected Mark Geronov to get like 5 million and he took like almost league minimum.

So, you know, that's, I think, going to skew it a little bit when it comes to that. But, you know, you look at, you know, the contracts, the penguins have signed the season again you know for letang 9.93 million was evolving wilds the twins projected cap it yes definitely a bit weak um i i'm definitely a bit weak definitely a bit strong i will say that but you know very good value the penguins got there even for brian russ they projected russ to get almost eight million per season he ended up getting 5.13 minus 0.287 million dollar difference amazing value even for danton hindon they projected him to get close to million, you know, 0.17 million difference there.

Rickel, they actually projected him to get 5.16 million per year. Penguins got him for five. So it makes me feel like I think a little bit better, even though I'm still not fully sold on that contract. It's interesting. They, the evolving wild twins, they projected Kaepenning to get 3.67 million on a two-year deal. Penguins obviously signed him to 3.2.

but I would love to talk to the twins and see, you know, what their model led or why their model was so bullish on Kavana just because he wasn't good last year. I mean, you know, there's definitely, I think, a big difference between, you know, their model and, you know, the eye test, at least just because Kappen was not scoring last season. I mean, he should not be worth $3.2 million, let alone $3.67 million that the twins were saying that he's worth. Dustin Tokarski, they thought he was worth $1.14 million. The Penguins got him for $780K, very good value. Casey DeSmith, they thought he was worth close to $2 million. Penguins got him for $1.8. P.O. Joseph, they thought he was worth close to a million.

They got him for $830K. Josh Archibald, you know, and I guess, that's kind of whatever, I think, at this point. For Malkin, this was the one that kind of threw me off. they only projected him to get 5.73 million. And that's because I think they take injuries, you know, into that equation a lot. You know, they were kind of the belief that the penguins should not retain of Guinea-Malkin just because of how their model was evaluating him. Obviously, you know, I disagree with that.

But, you know, the fact that they're able to get him for, again, not too much more than what they were projecting, that's still really good value. you know yon ruta they projected him to get 2.41 million penguins gave him 2.75 at the end of the day i'm not really um super upset about that and you know i think there's definitely been there's been some better moves out there for the bottom mistakes like you know not signing cap and maybe making another trade and fitting you know neenwriter who only got what four million per year um from the national predators i mean that would have been a beautiful you know second line option third line options something like that.

But, you know, the payment decided to go for cap and which was, you know, a little bit annoying. But, you know, I think this was some really tidy work from Ron Hexton, you know, looking at all the players that they added. And this is just for free agency, not just trade, you know, bringing back LaTang at, you know, almost a 4 million difference from evolving wild. Brian Rust, almost a $3 million difference, Danton Heinen on a massive steel, Ricard Raquel, still a little bit, you know, kind of concerned about the term in AAD. but, you know, he can definitely, I think, surprise me this season. You know, Afghani Malkin getting him at $6 million, Jan Ruta, I think that's a good deal. You know, Casey DeSmith, P.O.J. Dustin Tukarski, you know, most of these contracts are wins. The ones, again, Archibald one I don't really like.

He shouldn't be getting $900K, and I especially don't like the cap and in contract. And, you know, this is still, you know, about a month away until camp. I would still expect another move or two to be made because, again, I do not think this team is going to go into training camp with nine defensemen. And heck, you especially cannot go into the regular season, which starts in right around this time in October. So just in a couple months now with nine defensemen,

that's just that's malpractice. You have a 23-man roster for a reason. I mean, what are you going to do? 12 forwards, 90, two gold fenders. So if a forward gets hurt and, I shouldn't say if when a forward gets hurt because the penguins have awful injury luck, you know, you're kind of going to be up against the cap there. And, you know, I think you can run into problems that way.

So what they should do or what I hope, well, I hope they will do. They will do 13 forwards, eight defensemen and two goaltenders. And blah. So, you know, I think, again, I still think there's another mover to be made here. But, you know, I agree with Jason that I think a solid B to B plus for the offseason so far. from Hextall. He's definitely had a lot more Ws than L's. Again, I already touched on the L's off.

He's in the captain and contract, the Archibald thing. Heck, even signing, you know, Drake Cudula onto the deal he got, which is a one year two-way contract. You know, he,

yeah, he'll have a shot at making me at the NHL roster. And he's had pretty decent underlines throughout his career. So I've been pretty happy with what he's done. You know, you look at the trades bringing in Jeff Petrie from Mike Matheson, someone who can play top four minutes.

And also I'll talk about this other thing about Petrie later on in the show that he can do if Latang gets hurt. And then Ty Smith has the potential to be one heck of a player. If they get his development right, you know, I think working with Tar Reardon is going to pay huge dividends for Ty. So, yeah, I mean, I think, again, I think most of you guys should be happy with the work that Hextall did. I think he definitely proved some people wrong. I'll admit it I'll eat a little bit of crow. I didn't think he was going to get the job done on some of these deals. But for the most part, I think it's been a job well done with about a month ago till camp.

We'll have to see if he has anything else up his sleeve. I would have to think he will. But, you know, looking at evolving wilds, you know, projections there, and, you know, the conjure value added per team and how the penguins were second on that list, I think, you know, that's some good stuff. I will say that. Now, coming up in the second segment, we're going to get into the top 20 initial centers list

and why I think, you know, they got most of it right. I should say, talk about the penguins that are on there. If you haven't tried Bilt Bar Puffs yet, you are depriving yourself of one of life's greatest joys. And guess what? There's a new flavor. Ready?

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That's promo code locked on 15 for 15% off at Built.com. All right, I'm back in this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hodes. I'm going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. You can also follow all this show. He's Twitter at L0 underscore Penguins. So, J. Fresh Hockey, if you're not following him on Twitter, you're doing yourself a disservice. So he posted the fans rating of his top 20 centers that he went for his poll

versus the ANCHO Network's top 20 centers that they just ran. So in both polls, Cindy Crosby was the first penguin to be listed. He came in at number five behind Connor McDavid, Austin Matthews, Nathan McKinnon in Leon Dry Saddle. I think those are really fair, McDavid. Obviously, a monster, McKinnon Matthews, Drysiddle. They put up more points at this point than Sid. So I don't really have too much of a problem with that.

Sid is still, I think, a top five player in the league right now. After him, you have Sasha Barkoff. This is on the NHL's network's top 20 of us, by the way. Stephen Stamco is at 7. Patrice Bergeron 8. I don't think Stamcoe should be at number 7. I would probably bump him down a little bit. Sebastian O'Hulme, Mika Zbeniger, Baden Point, J.T. Miller.

Elias Linholm, Nazim Kodry, Ryan O'Reilly, Jack Hughes. Guinea Malkin came in at 18, Elias Peders, and then Robert Thomas. As for Gino. I would put him right now over Jack Hughes. I think Hughes still has a little bit more to prove. I would put Gino over Jack Eichol. I think he's better than Ryan O'Reilly at this point. I think 15 is a pretty good spot for him.

Codry just had a bill year. Linholm just had an amazing year. J-Tin, a little bit of a point because of Benajad. Actually, I maybe put Gino over as Abinajad. I don't know if that's being too biased. So, you know, kind of around that 14 to 15 range for Antone Network's list. But honestly, no, I don't really have too much of a problem with these. I know there are probably people out there that think that Sid is not a top five center anymore.

They're wrong. Just know that his great defensive metrics. Still is averaging a point per game, even though he's 35 years old at this point. And if he was, you know, didn't miss, I think, a lot of COVID time this year, he probably, you know, gets close to 100 points, to be honest with you guys. So, you know, I'm pretty okay with this. you know, I think if you were thinking about moving Sid up, maybe you put him over dry signal, but, you know, McDavid, I think he's the undisputed best player in the world right now. Matthews just scored over 50 again.

McKinnon, you know, it's almost like a 1A, 1B, 1C, 1D kind of thing. At least for me, you know, that's how I see it. If Sid were really snubbed, I would be pretty upset about it, but, you know, I really can't find too much to be mad about for that. you go do J. Fresh's list. McDavid, Matthews, McKinnon, dry saddle, Crosby. Again, you know, I think that's, you know,

pretty freaking solid. Barcove at 6, 3rd and 0.7, Patrice Bergeron at 8, Sebastian Aho 9, Jack Eichel, 10, Jack Hughes 11, Mekis Abanjad 12, Lynn Holm 13, Copatar 14. Pedersen at 15, Matthew Barzal, 16, Malkin at 17, Shifley, 18, Ryan O'Reilly, 19, Dylan, Lark, and 20.

So Malkin, I do think is, you know, even though he's right around the scene, you know, point on that, on the national networks list. I think he's a little snubbed when you look at the fans for Jay Fresh's poll. I think Monk at this point is a better player than Barzal. I would put him at least at 16. I think I will probably put him over Elias Pedersen,

Ange Copatar and Jack Igo. I would put him at least, and Jack Hughes, I would put in probably at least at number 12 on this list. I think, again, you know, McDavid Matthews, the top five. They're better at him at this point, Barcaud, Braden Point. Bergeron, as much as it pains me to say, you know, he just had arguably the best season of his career last year.

Then, you know, Eichol, not Iqa. And then Aho really good as well. I think, you know, somewhere in that top 15, Gino belongs. Because, you know, he was still a point per game player last year, 42 points in 41 games. He was on pace for 40 goals and 84 points last year if he had played a full. NHL season. I think, again, he's going to try to come back this year and really shut up a lot of people that thought that they should not have signed him during free agency. You know, again, there's just, I'm not going to rehash it. I just know there were a whole lot of

people out there that just wanted them to go sign Vince Trotrick for a reason. And he's just not even close to the same player that Gina was. But, you know, I'm glad that he's still getting, you know, that kind of respect that, you know, he basically is, you know, at least a top 15 center in this league, even though he's, you know, not as dominant as it used to be, but still, some of those players on the fan list, Barzal, I would easily put Malkin over him. I would put him over Copa-Tar, even though I think Copa-Tar is still a really great player. Pedersen, I would put him over, Jack Hughes and Jack Dei-Go. So I would probably have him right around the number 12 spot. Maybe he's a Benajad, too, so maybe, you know, the 11 spot, you know, just borderline top

10, I should say, in that fan vote. And I do think you're going to see dominant seasons from Malkin and Crosby this year. And I don't, I don't think Ansham Network has done the top 20 defensemen yet. But when that happens, I will be the first talk about that. And I'm sure Jafers is going to run a similar fan vote for that and just, you know, see how that compares. So that wraps up the second segment of the show. coming up in the final segment, I'm going to get into something that, you know, I kind of hadn't really thought about when it came to Jeff Petrie and his acquisition

from the Penguins in Hell. He could potentially, you know, bring more value than I guess I thought he would, especially if there are some stupid injuries that could happen this year. So that's all coming up right after this commercial break. All right, I'm back in this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hoddes. I'm going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hode. You can also follow the show's Twitter at L.O. Norsewerp. Penguin.

So I was talking with my buddy about this today. And you'll basically just be asking about the Matheson Petrie trade. And I just kept saying it about the Matheson for Petri Tree Trade just because, you know, I mean, I know Matheson had one heck of a year for the Penguins' breakout year, I should say. But, you know, whenever he was elevated up to top competition, you know, his numbers took a nosedive. That's just because he's not a top-haring defenseman in this league. And, you know, at times he's not really a top-for defenseman. I think in the right role, which he was in with the Penguins,

you can get a lot of value over him with him. And you saw that when he had double-digit goals for the first time in his career this year and just look a completely different player in his own zone. You obviously credit to Tar Reardon for that great work. But still, you know, this is, you know, he's probably not going to repeat that production on a really bad Montreal team. And again, you know, I was discussing with my friend. that, you know, Petrie, you know, he is a better player.

I think the defense right now is better than last years. And, you know, I also will say this, you know, God forbid Chris Latang gets her. He's been really healthy for the last five years now. You know, honestly, ever since the herniated disc, I saw a stat somewhere. He's played in 95, 96% of the England's games. There are people that will try to tell you that Latang has made a glass. he is not. Just don't even take those people seriously.

They just don't know what they're talking about when it comes to the sport. They should go through Latang's actual game log ever since that 2017 season and look at how durable he's been since then. He's probably missed, I don't think he's missed like 10 games in a season since that time. I know it hasn't been 15 to 20. That's for sure. He's been on the ice for almost every game. But, you know, God forbid if he does get hurt, this year.

I'm actually really comfortable with someone like Petrie stepping up into that top-peering role for five to ten games if Letang does have to miss a little bit of time. Because before that trade, I don't know about some of yins. I was not. Were you all comfortable with John Frickin Marino going up there and playing top- pairing minutes? No, because he doesn't have the offensive capability that Petri dies.

He doesn't have that two-way game to elevate himself beyond that second. second pair. Petrie does. Booming shot. Great first pass in the offensive zone. Great at moving the puck up the ice. Great in his own zone in defending his net. All those things can be, you know, you can, how was it as a guy? All those things that he's done well over the years in Montreal when he was on my top pairing most of the time can be translated over to the Penguins. He will be paired with a reliable partner in Brian Dumolin, who, when healthy, is very steady. And good. You just have to hope that the penguins are going to get that version of Brian Dumlin this year. If they get the version of him, that's kind of washed like he was last year.

And, you know, his stating was not good and all this other stuff. You know, then I think Petrie could be up a little bit of a creek. But, you know, that said, I still think for the most part, you know, Petrie has what it takes to play on my top hearing. if need be, God forbid Chris LaTang does get hurt. I just wanted to bring that up because, you know, I've been thinking about that for a little bit. And I was like, yeah, I mean, I think that's, you know, part of, I guess maybe a small reason the Penguins made that trade just because, you know,

this team has been so banged up over the last couple of seasons, you know, just with man games lost, they've been top five both seasons in a row now. And, you know, the Penguins, they've been pretty lucky that what's hanging has not really been one of those players, whether it's, you know, being out with COVID or, you know, an overall injury. You know, he's been in the lineup most of the night. It's been, I think a lot of the other initial defensemen that met out. But, you know, I still think that they wanted to, you know, just add another capable, at least a number two guy in place, someone who's been the number one in Montreal for the last

couple of years that can, you know, be like, okay, I'm going to come up to the top pairing if Latang gets hurt. And I'm going to make sure he doesn't miss a beat because, you know, again, they have, you know, similar offensive tendencies, although I will say LaTang is much better. I just started there so badly. Though I will say Latang is obviously much better in the offensive zone than Petri is. But still, you know, five, ten games. If Petri has to come up there, I think that's totally okay, at least for me.

I think that will mostly do it on the show. I think, you know, even for Ty Smith, if he shows a lot of, you know, good development this year, he could be something that also could be, you know, implemented in the top four with Marcus Pedersen has to miss some time, assuming he is on the team and he has not traded either before, you know, during camp and all this other stuff. So, you know, what we'll have to see on that. But, again, that'll do it for today's episode of the Locktime Penguins podcast. I really appreciate all of you listening.

to this one of another episode for you all on Wednesday. Going to start getting into some of the games of the year for the Penguins to get you all prepped for the next season. It's going to be here before you know it. Only a few more weeks left of this are three days a week episodes before we are back to everyday episodes for other Pittsburgh podcasts. Go please check out Chris Carter of Locked On Steelers. He kicks so much butt over there.

He is just an absolutely wonderful human being. And then of course, Ethan with Locked on Pirates, Even though the pirates aren't good, he does a good job bringing out content on an everyday basis during the season. So I just want to shout them out when you listen to at least one Pistford podcast. I think you've got to listen to all of them on this network. So again, thank you all so much for listening. I really appreciate it. And I'll be back with another show on Wednesday.