Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - How can Brock McGinn improve next season? EPISODE 500!!!!!

Episode Date: June 3, 2022

The weekend is upon us, but not before Hunter delivers some Penguins content. This is episode No. 500 and Hunter starts the show by reviewing Brock McGinn's season. What happened after he came back from his injury? Is there a way for him to rediscover his game again next season after he started out the season well? Could the Penguins look to be aggressive in getting out of that contract? Hunter ponders all of those questions, especially that last one as it'll be interesting to see if Ron Hextall knows when to move on from a potential mistake. Hunter notes that Jim Rutherford usually did (unless you're Jack Johnson). After that, Hunter has another trade proposal for yinz and yes, it involves a certain RFA on this team. The player that would be coming back is from a team that the Penguins have a long history of trading with, plus a team that usually isn't good offensively. He breaks down how it would benefit the Penguins, and the other team before ending the show with some talk about the conference finals and an injury update on Brian Dumoulin. All that, plus some other tidbits on this special milestone episode of the Locked On Penguins podcast.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts!Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you.Athletic GreensAthletic Greens is going to give you a FREE 1 year supply of immune-supporting Vitamin D AND 5 FREE travel packs with your first purchase. All you have to do is visit athleticgreens.com/NHLNETWORK. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello, everyone. Happy Friday. Apologies for no episode on Thursday. A couple of busy things came up for work. So I very much apologize for that. That's not going to be the case. Moving forward, again, it'll be back to full five days a week. Next week, but today, another action-packed show. We have Brock McGinn's season with you today. We're going to get into, we're starting to get more into the bottom six players, you know, how he played this season, injury, what the Penguins should do with him of the on season. Should he be given another chance? going to get into another potential penguins trade that would make sense, I think, for them and the other team that has the player that the penguins would get. It's something that I've been sent as well. A couple of other people have told me it will be good. So, you know, dug it up a little bit, looked up some numbers.

You know, I'll give my thoughts on that. And injury updates on Brian Dumlin. We're going to get to that later on in the show. And, you know, also maybe do a little small preview for the conference final that is tonight. that's all coming up right after this drop. Your Locked-on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network,

your team every day. All right, welcome back to another episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hodes. You're going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes, follow the shows, Twitter, at L.O. Arnold's Squamines, fresh off from coming back from the pool today. had a nice off day of work. It is a beautiful day down here.

Should I call this Southern Virginia? I don't really think it is. It's central just because Richmond is right smack in the middle. As always, thank you all so much for making this your first listen of the day. So let's get right into it. And we'll touch on Brock McGinn season here. So we'll get to the playoffs in just a second. So obviously, you know, he was the big, one of the big free agent signings

that Ron Hextall made. You know, they lost Brandon Tanna in the expansion draft. They traded away Jared McCann. They had to go out and get a player, you know, that can at least do something because, you know, you can't just lose two players and not do anything about it. So they went out and signed him again four years, 2.75 million. And, you know, at the time of this podcast, well, you know, when I was obviously doing it and on this before Brought came on, I said, you know, I think he's going to be better than

Brandon Tennett because I looked at his offensive production. it was pretty similar to what TANF did last year. I looked at his defensive metrics pretty similar. So I thought those were kind of awashed. I thought he was a little bit better offensively. You know, that didn't really come to pass too much this year. I had even strength at least 10 goals, 20 points per natural strategy. He played in 64 games.

When he was on ice, the penguins only had 46% of the scoring chances. That's one of his lowest marks of his career going back to 20. 2015-16. Expected goals-wise, only 49.4% of those. That's the lowest it's been since 2018-19 when he was with Carolina. Penguins only had 47% of the screen chances when he was on the ice. 50% of the high-danger chances, 500 when it comes to actual high-danger goals for versus actual high-danger goals against.

His shooting percentage is 6.5%. That's the lowest. His shooting has been since 2017-18 when he was with Carolina. now. This was a player that I thought looked decent during the first half of the regular season. Then he got hurt. I believe it was like a broken wrist or something like that. Came back towards the late stage of the regular season. It was not nearly as good in the playoffs. Obviously took that horrific penalty, which led to Artemi Panera and winning the game on the power play against the Penguins BK.

He just did way too much on that play. And honestly, right now, you know, my take is kind of shifted a bit. because, you know, I kind of did take the L on him a little bit this year. And again, you know, I don't, you know, ever say, you know, my opinion is back. I try to give the best analysis that I can when I look at the numbers and when I watch someone play. And, you know, he didn't live up to my expectations this year. I mean, you know, sure, he had double digit goals.

But, you know, I feel like any player in the bottom six should, mostly any player in the bottom six should be able to do that with the talent that the penguins have down there with Teddy Bluger, you know, Jeff Carter, Jason Zilker at times. Evan Rodriguez was down there for a good chunk of the regular season. So, you know, I think, you know, I think Radim Solorna could come up here and pot double-digals, if need be. I think Drew O'Connor could also pot double-digical, maybe if Al-Rey Pustin, they could as well. But, you know, there's still three more years left at this, you know, 2.75 million. And, you know, right now the Penguins could have used that money to, you know, maybe go out and get a backup last year.

I mean, I know the options weren't super, super good. but no, there were still goaltenders that were available that they probably would have signed for cheaper than that 2.75 million. And, you know, the cap hit, you know, it's not as much of a problem, I think, as maybe the term is. I mean, I really shouldn't say the term is that much problem because the team is probably going to stink after these next three years are up. But, you know, it's, you just don't really give out, you know, four or five, six years, obviously for Tana for these bottom six players. And, you know, I thought it was the right call for, you know, TANF to potentially move on. I was fine with the Penguins, you know, getting rid of that cap pay. You know, 3.5 million for the next four years, I think is what it was.

But you have to spend that money wisely. You traded Jared McCann for really no reason. And I understand that, you know, the talking points surrounding him or it's a dicey subject in Penguins fandom because, you know, you have one side of the extreme that's super, super high on him. I kind of tend to lean towards that way. But then the other side is like, well, you know, the penguins didn't really need him anyway. Look how good they were this year.

And I understand that to a degree. But, you know, McCann, you know, I'm sure they could have used his 25 to 30 goals this year to say to least, especially, you know, his time on the power play and being another center. But, you know, McGinn just, he didn't really move the needle much. And if I were Ron Hextall, you know, if a team came and called me about him this offseason, I would listen to it. I would listen to it very intently.

I would maybe be a little aggressive in terms of moving him. You know, the biggest thing going off that, you know, when Jim Rutherford was here, he usually would know if he made a mistake, right? Is that going to be the same with Hexel? You know, is he willing to, you know, live by the sword, die by the sword? Or is he willing to, you know, just like, okay, it's not really working out at least this first year. or if he comes back for the second year and he's not playing well, okay, it's not only working out,

hey man, we're going to have to ask you to pack your bags and go somewhere else and they can get a draft pick or like a sea level prospect back or something like that. You're not going to really get a decently big return back for Brockham again. That said, I probably would expect him to return, but I would have a bit of a short lease. I would want to see if he can get back to what we saw in the first half of the regular season when he actually looked like he was living up to my expectations versus after those first couple of months,

he regressed, got hurt, and then looked really bad after the injury. I don't know if that was still affecting him towards the late stages of regular season or in the playoffs, but his numbers really fell off a cliff. He did have that one playoff goal that was in game three, played in all seven games, 103 minutes of ice time. Penguins only had 47% of the shot attempts with him.

at 5E5, 48% of the scoring chances, 55% of the high danger chances. Do not allow any high danger goals, at least when he was on the ice, 54.3% of the expected goals. So some good, some bad, but in a lot of areas,

I want to see more from them. I want to see if he can be better as a penalty color next year because that was one of his biggest traits when he came over from Carolina. He can be that Tanna replacement on the PK that can cause havoc. And it was to do that wrecking ball that TANF was. But, you know, he played way too passive.

I thought on the PK. I know a lot of the other players did too, but he did not live up to my expectations for that. And, you know, sure, you know, he had a couple of decent, short-handed opportunities this season, but, you know, it wasn't enough, you know, than what we saw of 10 of the previous two years

where it looked like every time he was on the ice on the PK, you know, he was doing just a much better job and, you know, actually getting more short-handed opportunities. So, you know, I think this season, if he is on the team, it's a prove-it year for me. me. I want to see, you know, what he can really do when he's fully healthy. There's always he going to be changes to the roster, especially, I think, in the bottom six. You know, what's going to happen with him when he potentially plays with new linemates? Maybe he can

unlock some more offensive production with Teddy Bluger because Bluger was a ghost again in the playoffs. And when I do his season review, I'm going to really lay into him with that. But, you know, it's just my expectations have definitely tempered a little bit with again again it wouldn't surprise me if they did engage in trade discussions if teams came calling or if they tried to open up some cap space you know he's one of the guys that could go out but again i'm i would also not be equally surprised if he does come back and i'm kind of leaning towards him being back i don't think hextall is just going to make changes for the sake of making changes i think if he were to trade him he would have to feel like he's getting decent production back because remember i mean he just signed him um last year

But, you know, definitely not looking like one of the better moves that Hextel has made in his tenure so far. Curious to see how he bounces back in 2022, 2023. So that wraps up my thoughts on McGinn, what likely will happen and what I think, you know, should happen this offseason with regards to him. Coming up in the next day, we're going to get to that trade proposal that I have. And yes, this one does involve a certain winger that's going to be a resumed. restricted free agent. I'm sure you all know who it is, at least from a penguin's perspective, right after this commercial break. But before I get to that, Battleline is your number one source

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I am your host, Hunter Hodes. I'm going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow the show's Twitter at L or Penguins. So I know I did the Martin Nitch-ass, Forkes-Berry, Capman, trade-puboles on my last episode. I said it would make sense for both teams. And then Elliot Friedman said on the table. Jeff Merrick show and he wrote, excuse me, in his 32 Thoughts blog on Thursday, saying it sounds like

that, you know, NetJS has already put a number out there for his extension, but Carolina may not, it sounds like Carolina didn't like the original number. So they kind of backed off a bit. He said, well, we'll have to see where that goes. So there's the potential. If the penguins are interested in that player, you know, I think a trade could be worked out. You know, maybe you don't, it's not just a one-for-one swap, but, you're not. but potentially there's a little more involved.

I think NCHS would really light it up here. The Penguins, you know, speaking of, you know, another potential trade with Capon. And I mean, I would be very aggressive with him during the offseason. I know he should probably get his qualifying offer. But in my view, I don't really think he should be on the team next year. And I do think there will be teams out there that will want to see if he will get a second chance to prove that last year was just kind of a fluke.

And, you know, one of those teams could be the Anaheim Ducks and one of those players that could be on his way out. out Max Comtois. He's only, he's been in the NHL for four seasons, had a great year in 2020, 2020, 2021, 16 goals, 33 points, and 55 games. But regressed a little bit this year. Only had six goals, 16 points in 52 games. Underlying numbers-wise this year, they did go down a bit,

you know, 47.3% of the shot attempts for the ducks when he was on the ice. 47.4% of the expected goals, 46% scoring chances for a percentage, 45% of the high danger chances, did not break even, and actual high danger goals for. Shot 8.5% this year, so that's not bad, but a little bit down from his 9.3% last year. This is a player that I really think could use a change of scenery. And remember, the Penguins, they got Danton Heine from the Ducks. He came close to having 10 goals, had a big breakout season this past year, had almost 20 goals in his first season with the Penguins.

And yes, I obviously do think he should be re-signed. So there is definitely a little bit of history here. You know, the Ducks, they've never really been a good offensive team. It doesn't really matter the coach. You know, they're definitely going through a big rebuilding process here. They're still probably at least a couple years away from being a contention of the playoffs. You know, this is a young player who may not fit their long-term future. Why not, if you're Ron Hexon, Brian Berg, try to get a younger player in here who has flexibility.

You know, he can play wing. He can play center. at least on hockey reference he has left way. But I do believe he played some center when he was with the Ducks the last four years. And you know who he reminds me of a lot, a young Patrick Hornquist. Seriously, go look up on Utah. I may actually put a link on the YouTube channel at the bottom or potentially even if you're listening to this audio only. I may put a link to the 16 goals that he had in 2020, 2021.

And I want you all to go watch that and just look who he reminds you of. If you don't see a young Patro Hornquist in this player, I would be pretty stunned because almost all the goals that I saw he scored came directly in front of the net, whether it's deflection, causing havoc. He is a goaltender's worst nightmare. He would make a lot of sense for me. And if I do recall correctly, I don't really think he makes that much money just because he's such a, young player i'm just going to check out cap friendly here um real quick if i can find that yeah so he only makes two million against the cap heading in the next year he's 23 he'll be an rf a after this season so you will have the control of this player which is obviously just massive um and if he gets back

to the production from what we saw um in 2020 2020 2021 i know his price tag will go but still you know that's another added depth player that can you know contribute in a sign of you know potentially you can put him on again, Malkins line if you want to, just because he's a, you know, he's a full on left wing, but again, he can play center to you know, if you wanted to do that,

you know, put Brian Rust on Malkins' wing if you want to, even though he's probably going to be up with Siniiq. But you know, you could put Edm Rodriguez there. If he comes back, that would be a potential pretty good second line with Kumthwa and Malkin. I know a lot of this is silly season stuff, but, you know, it's always fun to speculate because, you know, this could be a player that, you know,

is out the door, especially if Pat Verbeek, the new general manager, wants to keep making changes. I mean, he made a good chunk of them at the trade deadline. These two teams have a long history of trading with each other. I mean, for God's sake, they just had the Ricard Raquel traded, the Penguins I thought did pretty well there. Why couldn't they do well again with this one? You know, maybe he doesn't move the needle so much for some people,

but I do think this player has definitely more to give. and I think in a right system that benefits him offensively, I think he can really show something. Remember, you know, I was of the opinion that Dayton High and this is going to be the best Dayton Highland we've seen since he was with Boston. I actually finally took a W with that. I did not have to eat crow like I did with Cody C.C., you know, heck even Rockman game when I thought he was going to be really good this year

and he ended up turning out to not be as good as I hoped. I actually got one right, which sometimes, you know, I know that's not the case, but I'm glad I'm glad. I did with that. But, you know, I think a one-for-one swap, you know, maybe you can, I'll say this. I think it's more likely you pull off this one-for-one swap than you would with Natchez for Kaepin. You know, short Kappanin, he's, you know, he's one-year removed from a 40-point season in a

short year this year, play better defensively, put up decent, you know, I shouldn't really say decent offensive numbers, put up okay numbers. Comptu was a little bit off, you know, this is, I think this is fine. value in a trade for both teams, you know, for captain. He can go to, honestly, a not-sovereign team, play up in a line of potentially play with Troy Terry, you know, Trevor Zegris, you know, really, you know, get his career back on track. And, you know, maybe the duck signed him to, I don't know, a two-to-three-year deal

since he's an RFA or something like that. And then for the Penguins, you know, they can have, come to a playout this year at the $2 million cap hit, see how he does. And if he plays really well, you know, you have his rights. as an RFA, you can then extend him. So, you know, I think this trade, you know, I know, I know, I said, again, I said the NCHAS for Capitan trade makes a lot of sense. I think this one makes even more sense from a Pengman's perspective.

And I would be curious to see if more rumors come out about Comptow. But again, you know, going back to Capone real quick, if I were heck, so I would really be, you know, looking at, you know, players like these from teams around the league and seeing, you know, okay, can I get, you know, a young player back for a player who I know, I know is not as bad as what we saw this past season, but he's also probably not as good as what we saw in 2020, 2021. So just,

you know, another trade idea for you all out there. You know, let me know in the YouTube comments and on my social media, you know, just, you know, would you like this trade? You know,

can DM me and all that good stuff. Yeah, I think, you know, it would be a slam dunk for the Penguins, at least in my opinion, but let me know your thoughts. You know, would you make the trade? Would you not make the trade?

You know, do you think they should get something better for Kaplan? Just let me know after you listen to this episode. Coming up in our final segment, we get into a little bit of the conference finals and also an injury update for one of the Penguins players that had to miss most of the first round. So stick around for that coming up right after this. All right. I'm back here on this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hoarries.

Remember to follow me on Twitter. at Connor Hodes, follow the show's Twitter at L.O. underscore penguins. So there was a bit of an injury update today when it comes to Brian Dunwin. So he was back on the ice actually skating today on his own. Almost lost my train. I thought that. It's going on my Twitter real quick. Skating on his own, doing some drills.

So the fact that he's just getting on the ice now and it's the Eastern Conference final, yeah, the Penguins would not have been able to play with him in the second round against Carolina had they won that series against the Rangers. It sounds like it was, oh, yeah, that's right. I believe it was an MCL injury. And, you know, this kind of lines up because it basically had been almost a month since he got injured. And he said the injury was when he kind of slammed into the post when Casey DeSmith

was in in game one. Remember, you know, took warm-ups in game two. And they didn't end up playing. And then Indo didn't play the rest of the series. You know, Sullivan kept saying he was progressing off the, I said maybe he was, but he really had no chance in playing a round two. Maybe he comes back in round three probably not. I think the earliest he could have came back is the Stanley Cup final if they would have gotten him there.

So it's good news that he's skinny again. Who knows that he's going to be on the team next year, but wanted to share that with you all in case some of you are not on social media and wanted an entry update with Brian Dune won. So getting to the conference finals here real quick, Colorado up two games to none. Not surprised. I mean, the avalanche are just a really damn good team.

I would be stunned if the Oilers won four out of five against them. I think the abs are going to go to the final and rightfully so. I think they deserve this. They built a team that's ready to win. They have crushed everyone in their path in the playoffs thus far. They are 10 and 2 in 12 playoff games. That is how good they are playing. I mean, Connor McDavid, if he doesn't wake up here, they're toast.

It may already be toast since they're down 02, but that was a flat-out beat down at the abs, keep the Oilers on Thursday night. When you're being shut out by Pavol-Franso's, who's not a bad goalie, but they don't even have Darcy Kemper and they're still being, if they're still shutting out teams,

that's a bad sign for the rest of the league. As for Tampa Bay, New York, I got to think Andre Vasselowski's going to play a lot better than what we saw the other night. He was dreadful. I believe coming off a loss. I think I saw there's a stat. The lightning, I'm pretty sure are what,

18 and 0, 17, 18 and 0 coming off a loss. under John Cooper the last two or three years in the playoffs. Vasilevsky, he plays the best hockey member, fellas. They got blown the heck out by the Maple Leafs in game one. They then blew out the Leafs in Game 2 in Toronto. I'm not saying history of repeat itself here about the lightning. They've shown an ability to bounce back throughout the last few years in the playoffs. I would expect a similar performance.

I'm not going to say they're going to blow out the Rangers. I think it's going to be a close game. But I would expect the lightning to bounce back to any of the Rangers. Again, you know, it just feels like the team of destiny right now. Very 2017 Penguins like, you know, game one, Scherkin's billing them out in the first period. And then they get goal after timely goal, after timely goal. You know, Tampa Bay ties the game. Rangers make it 2-1.

Tampa ties a 2-2. And then the Rangers splits them from then. I was very similar to what the Penguins did against Columbus in 2017 at times. Nashville and the first two home games. It's pretty funny to see some of the similarities come to light and realize why some people were so upset at what the penguins were doing again. It was just, you know, Igor going Burr, just like Matt Murray did in 2017. Obviously, I know one goalie is way better than the other, but, you know, the comparisons, I think, in terms of stats-wise. But I shouldn't really say stats-wise.

The comparisons, at least, you know, playing-wise are definitely there, to say the least. There's really been no other news in Penguin Land at this point. This was cool to look at today. Micah Blake McCurdy from Ineffective Math was looking at some old stuff for his website. And he looked at the Penguins 5 to 5 to 5.5 offense in 2007, 2008. And with a peak city Crosby, 744 minutes, the Penguins had an expected goals score of 3.5, 6 for 60 minutes. That's plus 58% relative to league average.

There is a whole blob of red in the middle of the, in the middle of the offensive zone, right in front of the net, right outside the circles. The rest of the zone is a bit of blue, but in front of the net, five, 10 to 15 feet out, that is where the Penguins were getting their chances. And then you look at, I'll pull up the tweet here,

you look at the Penguins 525 offense without Crosby during that year, 2.09 minus 7% relative to league average, a whole lot of blue in front of the net in the offensive zone. That just goes to show how great a peak Cid was and not enough people ever appreciated it. you know, I understand, you know, maybe he was, he was still young at the time. So people were still attaching that stupid whiner narrative to him. And people still call him that in 2022.

It's hilarious that, you know, I understand people were calling him that when flip phones were around. But, like, almost 15 years later and we still got people like attaching that name to him. It's just like, grow off. I mean, again, it just, it goes to show, though, these, these numbers I throw out of you all, you know, just how dominant. Sidney Crosby was that year. And, you know, how just don't take that kind of stuff for granted when you have a superstar, all-time great player, come through your city and on your team.

That 2018 was probably some of the most fun I've ever had watching the Penguins. In my opinion, I mean, they steamrolled those first three, the first three rounds. Beating Philadelphia in five was obviously awesome. and the conference final to go back to the final for the first time since 92. Thursday actually was the anniversary of the Sakora goal in triple overtime, which sent the series back to Pittsburgh. I know the Penguins lost it.

But, you know, that was such a fun ride. And it set the stage for just an incredible era of Penguins hockey. I was honestly more surprised that the Penguins won the series the following year than I was in 2008 when they stretched out the six games. Because honestly, that series had no business going to six. It had no business almost going to seven with how good the Red Wings were. that year and then just how good they were in 2009 too. So, you know, just again, it really set the golden era for Penguins hockey. But that will do it for this episode of the Locked-on

Penguins podcast. I really appreciate all of you listening to this one. I'll be back on Monday for a fresh episode of this podcast. Hopefully maybe there's some news over the weekend as free agency is getting closer. We're getting closer to the end of the playoffs as well. So for there's been no update on the contract talks for Krista Tang and the beginning Malkin and all their other free agents. Hex Solis, you know, biding his time. As usual, I believe him and Brian Burke were at Steelers OTAs. Last week, go check out Chris Carter for that.

And then go check out Ethan at Lockdown Pirates because the Pirates just somehow swept the Los Angeles Dodgers and they're playing a pretty good baseball right now, it looks like. So shout out to those two. They do great work for the Lockdown Network. And again, I'll be back next week for a fresh five episode week. for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Until then,

hope you all have a great summer weekend, and I'll talk to you in a few days.