Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - How can John Marino regain his form?

Episode Date: August 17, 2021

After a small hiatus, Hunter is back with a fresh episode of Locked On Penguins and as usual, there are no shortages of topics to discuss. Hunter starts with the first front-office hire and how it's a good idea to bring an agent into the fold who knows the salary cap. Does he take the place from Jason Botterill? Or is it a little bit of Sam Ventura's role, except with no data in? Hunter then also touches on the advertisement news and which company should have an ad on the Penguins jerseys. Is it Sheetz? Finally, Hunter does get to John Marino and how the Penguins can get him back to his old self. Does he need to play with Pettersson full-time? What type of deployment should he get? He also discusses Jeff Carter going into next season and why some fans should temper their expectations with him.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you.StatHeroStatHero, the FIRST Ever Daily Fantasy Sportsbook that gives the PLAYER the ADVANTAGE. Go to StatHero.com/LockedOn for 300% back on your first play. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Your Locked-on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Your team every day. Hey everyone, welcome to this Tuesday afternoon episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes,

follow the show's Twitter at L.O. underscore Penguins. Again, I apologize to you all for basically being on a break, I think, for the last almost what, five, six days now. You know, some stuff came up and, you know, just was not able to do a third episode last week. But we are back today. We do have some Penguins news to discuss including a new front office hire that came within the organization today. Plus, I want to share some thoughts on John Marino going in the next season since I know a couple of people have been talking about that.

And I wanted to share my thoughts on that as well. Plus, I also wanted to talk about Jeff Carter's expectations going into this next season as well. and why it's probably not likely he's going to score 16 points in his first 20 games next season to say the least. But to get started to the Penguins, again, they did make a front office hire today. If I can go to it right here. Alex Shawl is the director of hockey operations. According to the Penguins' tweet, his primary responsibilities will be aiding hockey operations with player contract negotiations, managing the salary cap, and assisting with other hockey-related duties.

So this is kind of what, I mean, San Ventura did this in a way. I mean, obviously he's way more data-driven and analytic-driven. Obviously, he's with Buffalo now. But he still was aiding the hockey operations with player contract stuff, managing the cap. But a lot of this kind of sounds like what Jason Botrell was doing while he was here, especially with the salary cap. You know, we always knew Botryl is like the salary cap wizard and figuring it out with Jim Rutherford and Ray Schiro before that. I mean, he was the associate GM under Rutherford before he left, excuse me, to go to Buffalo.

But that's what I think this basically sounds like. I mean, the Penguins have been doing a lot of shuffling within the front office this offseason. I've been seeing, I think Chris Pryor's son got a job with the organization. I think he's a scout. I think Ron Hextall hired his own son to be in the front office and a role. It might be a scout. It might be some other player developmental role.

It's basically just being, okay, you know, I'm your dad. I'll give you a job for the sake of doing it. But, you know, they all have also shuffled around some other people. people within the front office, you know, example, you know, bringing on Chris Prior from Philadelphia, a couple others. Hextall said in the press release, having spent over 25 years in professional sports, Alec brings a wealth of knowledge and experience with contract negotiations. His unique perspective and background makes him an exciting addition to our hockey operation staff. So in case anyone was not aware, so Alex Shaw has been an NHL player agent for quite a while

now. He actually, his players included, had 22 million in cap hits this year. Some of his notable clients, according to Puckpedia, James Van Reeves Day with the Philadelphia Flyers, he makes quite a bit of money. Alec Martinez, who makes, I think, over $5 million per with Vegas, Luke Glenn Denning, Connor Clifton, Joe Farabee, John Merrill,

and this other Rich Rishery Free Agent, I honestly don't even know who this player is. The last name is Marotti, but I honestly don't even know who who his first name is. But I'm sure I can check it here on Puckpedia real quick. Let me just see this. Cooper Morodi of the Edmonton. Oh, there's Stephen Canfer, UFA of the Bruins.

He also has Sam Manas of the St. Louis Blues, Greg Pattern of the Ducks, Martin Feverey of the Washington Capitals. And I think that is basically it. And the highest contract that one of his players is assigned to, of course, Lizvan Reeves to make $7 million per with the flyers. And then Martinez is right after, as I just said, with 5.25 million per.

I'm fine with this. Again, you know, he has a lot of salary cap experience. You know, obviously he's been an agent for the last two decades. In the press release, Pagan to say he spent the previous nine years as director of athlete representation at Legacy Global Sports, which is of course, that agency. His primary duties included scouting and recruiting clients and serving as a liaison for professional sports teams and the media. Prior to that, he founded R4PA in 2001, which was an agency, specializing,

in the representation professional hockey players, and then it was actually bought by Legacy in 2012, which of course he stayed ever since 2012. So overall, my thoughts on this, this is fine. I mean, they've been kind of needing to fill this role ever since Jason Bottsville left. Even when Billy Guerin was with Pittsburgh, I really don't think he did a lot with salary cap stuff.

And, oh, yeah, I mean, after Bottsville left, I mean, you can kind of see that Rutherford really didn't know what he was doing with a salary cap space. Hexol seems to know a lot more at this point. He was a little bit clever moving out McCann's money, bringing in Brock McGahn, bringing in Danton-Hiden. They still have a little bit of cap money right now. They signed Ashton Reese to a $1.8 million deal for one year.

I'm sure they can maybe move out some money, but it's probably not looking likely at this point. But it's never a bad idea to bring a fresh voice into the room who has a lot of experience with dealing with a salary cap. seems to be an agent that a lot of people around the hockey world respect. So I think this could only mean good things for the Penguins front office. You know, I'm glad they're not going to hire someone like Pat Brasson. I remember, I think this was back when Ray Shiro got fired in case you all forgot.

I'm pretty sure Brasson was a candidate to be the Penguins GM that year, excuse me. And I believe he got at least one interview, if not to. I don't know if it was two, but I'm about 90 to 95% sure that he got an interview. Again, I don't mind if player agents work in our front office. I think they can provide a lot to a team, but I think it's too far if they become a GM. I mean, you know, Bill Zito is obviously making me eat a little bit of crow with that statement. Remember, he was an agent before being hired by the Four Panthers, and he has done a good job there, but is that probably going to be the norm going forward with how every agent is going to be hired as a GM and do a good job?

probably not, at least in my opinion. I don't think I have any other thoughts on this hire. I mean, it's just a simple front office hire. I'm sure there might be one or two more throughout the off season. I think maybe if there is, it's probably just one. Other news and notes around the league. So Sportico reported this morning that the NHL they're going to have ads on their jersey starting not for the 2021-22-22-23 season, but for the 2020-season.

And yes, in case you are wondering if that includes the penguins, which obviously I don't know why anyone would not think that. Yes, the penguins will have ads on their jerseys starting in 2022. If I had to guess it's probably going to be something like PPG. They had the helmet ads last season for Pittsburgh and it was PPG on there. I think at the start they kind of looked a bit weird and it may change them a bit where it actually didn't look bad. I think at the start, it was just like all black on the helmet, and then they made it blue, and it was like, okay, that seems to be a little bit better. If we are not doing sheets on the jersey, I don't really know what we're doing here.

Sheets is obviously a very big Western Pennsylvania thing. It is 100% better than Wawa. If you are a Pittsburgh Penguins fan, you think Wawa is better than Sheets, you should just go root for the Philadelphia Flyers at this point. But this is a perfect opportunity for the Penguins to, you know, partner with Sheets, put those ads on those jerseys. I think if anything, it's probably going to be PPG, though. Could see maybe something like McDonald's, but I think you're more than likely looking at PPG. But again, you know, Sheets just makes a lot of sense.

Heck, I put on my Twitter account today. Just use a Bill Bar for all the Bill Bar ads that we do on the locked on accounts here, including this show. So, I mean, I would 100% be down with that. but I mean, it's probably just going to be very generic. And according to Greg Wysinski, he said the league surveyed their teams, found the majority in favor of this and had a formal Board of Governors vote to approve it. I also do see this side of it as well, you know, as Nick Zarara says,

the NCHO would not be desperate for ad money if they could successfully market their sport. 100% agree. The NHL has always just been so behind with actually marketing their sport. There's all those stupid blackouts on TV. They don't promote the stars enough, et cetera, et cetera, with how just the marketing team with the NHL is just obviously so freaking bad. And one more thought to end on this for you all. I really don't understand all this outrage about the ad things. I mean, I know I did a quote tweet of, you know, but why, though?

I mean, obviously I know why. It's about money. They're trying to make up deficits from what happened with the pandemic. But it's really not that big of a deal. If you're really mad about it, go somewhere. Arby's go play video games or something like that there's just no need to get so jammed about something that is really not a big deal and it's probably going to be just fine on the jerseys I think the original report said it's gonna be three

inch times 3.5 inch ad space so slightly bigger than the NBA patch so I mean it's not even and that's not even that big I mean you're still gonna see the jersey just fine I'm sure if you don't want to have an ad on your jersey if If you want to buy a jersey from Penn's gear or somewhere online, I'm sure you can just order a regular jersey without any advertisement on it. It's not a big deal. If you're really mad about it, go do something else and take your mind off of it. I am always someone that is going to dump on the NHL when they need to be dumped on, but this is not one of those times. The only reason why they are doing this is because they're trying to make up for lost revenue because they lost, I think it was over a billion dollars due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

So those are my thoughts on that. Coming up in the next day, when we are going to have a discussion about John Marino and why I think he could get back to his rookie year next season or potentially even a bit better. Before we do that, though, it's time to talk about a couple of things. One of them being, Bet Online, the fastest and easiest way to better on your sports action.

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I mean, the 5E5 Pittsburgh offense with Marino on the ice was 2.24, expected goals for per 60, a lot of blue around the net. But the Pittsburgh 55 offense without Marino on the ice, 2.35 expected goals for. So it was just, it was better. There's a little more red on the ice. But if you go back to the previous season, which was his rookie season in 2020. Without Marino on the ice,

the Penguins' expected goals for was 2.46. And if I can find this, the Penguins 5-5 offense with Marino on the ice during his rookie season, that was 2.32. A lot of blue in front of the net, but you mean, you obviously know what you're going to get with him. It's not a lot of offense.

You know you're going to get a lot of defense from him. But I think the biggest reason why he was a wreck this past season was because he played a lot of minutes with Mike Matheson on his pairing, and that's just not good enough. I've talked about this a couple times on the podcast. If you haven't tuned into this, I'll say this again. Those two players are just not good for each other because they both like to have the puck on their stick, right? Especially Mike Matheson. You can basically play him forward at this point just because he's so bad in the defensive zone, usually.

But Matheson is the guy you usually want carrying the puck up the ice because you're know what you're going to get from him. He's better at zone entries. I think he's a bit better of a playmaker in the offensive zone, has a good shot. But, you know, Marino is also someone who likes to have the puck on his stick as well because he's not bad at zone entries.

I don't think he's as good as Mathisid. He's a decent playmaker. It doesn't have as good of a shot, but he's still offensively minded like Matheson. And when you pair two players like that together, it's just not going to work. And I think Pittsburgh finally realized that about a little over

happily through the season because they put Marino back with his usual partner in Marcus Pedersen and they were the shutdown pairing that we all saw from 2019 and 2020. Last season with Marino and Pedersen on ice with Marino next to Pedersen, excuse me, they played 428 minutes together. This is from hockey viz with Micah's stuff. The expected goals against per 60 for the Penguins 2.06 minus 15% in the parentheses. That is freakishly good. There is a whole bunch of blue in the defensive zone. Again, everyone, the more blue there is, the less shots the team is taking.

There's only a little bit of red in front of the net, but I mean, compared to how much glue there is, it's not even close. Now, if you go back to 2020, this was even better. 376 minutes together. The Penguins 525 defense,

expected goals against per 60, 2.02, no red in any of the high danger areas. All of the red is kept to around the blue line. If you look at the two circles, you know, even 15, 20 feet out or just five to 10 feet out, there is just nothing going on there for the opposition. And this is what the penguins need to do for next season to get Marino back to the rookie year level that we saw. Just put him with Pedersen full time because his numbers can't suffer like they did for a lot of

last season playing with Mike Matheson. And Marino, he will carry the puck up the ice for you. As I said, he's good at zone entries. He's good at ice. He's good at all those traits that I just described. But then with Pedersen, who I think takes a little too much heat from the fan base, I don't really agree with some of the stuff that people say about him. Yes, I would not have minded if he was traded, but if you're asking me which player I would choose to keep between Pedersen and Matheson, I'm taking Pedersen 100 times out of 100, and I'm not looking back.

And just, you know, Marcus is just that steady defensive presence that you need. on the team. Sure, he is overpaid, but, I mean, him and Marino works so well together that I don't really think it matters that much. I mean, even defensively, if we go back to last year, I'm looking at the defense here. So the Penguins 5 to5 defense with Marino on the ice, 2.31 minus 5%. And then without Marino on the ice, the expected goals against was 2.37. Now, if we go back the previous season in 2020 with Marino on ice, Let me just do this for a sec. 2.00 minus 20%.

Again, no red in the defensive zone. And this is just him on the ice, not with Pedersen. And then this past season, as I just said, 2.3 run a whole swab of red right in the front of the net. Where do you all think that is from? You guessed it, everyone. A lot has to do with him playing a ton of minutes with Mike Matheson, which it was not working. The underlying numbers were telling everyone it was not working. I think their expected goals percentage was well below 50%.

Their scoring chances for percentage was below 50%. Their defensive numbers were awful. And I think Sullivan finally realized that because, again, over halfway through the season, he put Pedersen back with Bruno, and you can put that pairing out there 13 to 15 minutes in night as your shutdown shot suppression pairing, and they'll do the job for you easily. And then they put Matheson and Cece together,

which worked wonders because Cece, good in the defensive zone, especially with that contract, and then Matheson can do his thing in the offensive zone, and he wasn't getting burned as much as well as not getting a lot of time on ice either. So I really do think that this is the biggest way that you will see John Marino back to his normal self next season. And obviously, the Penguins better hope that he is back to his usual self, because the Penguins have committed a lot of years and a lot of money towards him for this next contract. I mean, remember everyone, Jim Rutherford signed him to that.

massive six-year term when he was still in his young 20s to that 4.4 million dollar cap it and if a defenseman is not living up to that, no, that's a prime player that could be moved out. I'm not saying that the penguins should move on from John Marino. I'm saying quite the opposite. I want him here

long term because he truly was sensational in his rookie season and I think if he's deployed properly and with the right partner and with potentially the second line with the young Imalkin or with the third line with Jeff Carter I think it will do wonders for him next season.

I think you will see Marino back to his usual self. I'm going to put that as an early off-season prediction for you all right now. I think John Marino will be back to that rookie year that he was in consideration for being a Calder Trophy finalist before. I think he broke his cheekbone towards the end of the regular season. But coming up in the next segment, we are going to have a discussion about Jeff Carter, plus some updates on the Olympics talk. But before we do get to that, it's time to talk about Bilt Bar. They have many delicious flavors. There is something for everyone when you talk to, a Bipar fan.

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All right, welcome back to this episode of the Locked on Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes, follow the shows Twitter at L.O. underscore Penguins. So yes, it is finally time that we do have a honest discussion about Jeff Carter. So, when Carter was on the ice last season, the Penguins 5-5 offense with him, there were 188 minutes. The Penguins expected goals score per 60 was 2.46 plus 1%. A lot of red towards the point areas, some in the slot, a lot in front of the net, but the whole bunch of blue towards the left side of the net, and then right in the middle between the dots.

Now, if you go back, I don't even think I can go back now, obviously, because it was his only season there, but now defensively, 188 minutes with Carter on ice, the Penguins expected goals against per 60, 2.07 minus 15%. Again, a very small sample size, but I mean, there's a whole swab of blue right in the front of the net towards the right face-off dot area. There's a little bit of red towards the left face-off dot area, but those are still really good numbers. But I think the biggest thing was, you know, his counting stats were really high, despite some of his underlying numbers not being as good.

And, you know, the biggest reason for that, obviously, was that he finished his chances, unlike he did, while being in Los Angeles. I know that has a lot to do with playing with different linemates and better linemates, I should. I mean, you're not playing with Alex I Follow and a couple other weird Kings players that he spent his most time with last season.

He got to have a lot of playing time with Jared McCann, Jason Zucker, et cetera, you know, and he made the most of it by having 13 goals and 16 points in 20 games, but I really think we need to pump the brakes on Jeff Carter being that same player that we saw from last season. I mean, he is in his late 30s now. I know Penguins Jesus, you know, shout out to him

for all these amazing tweets that he puts out with Carter talking to the media. Obviously, it's fake, but I just, I wish they were real because they sound so freaking. Especially when he was talking about Barry Trots. Please go follow him if you're not already on Twitter because he does a fantastic job. with a lot of his tweets, especially again when it comes to Carter.

But I think the most realistic expectations for him next season, I mean, I think 40 points in 82 games is probably the most you will get. I do not think he's a 50 to 55 point player. I think if you are one of the people who is expecting him to be a 50 to 55 point player next season, you are going to be pretty damn disappointed. I mean, he's not going to be playing with Jake Gensel or Brian Russ. I mean, sure, he's probably going to get top six minutes to start. So that will help him.

But will he make the most of that as he did after coming to Pittsburgh and playing in the top nine? I really don't think so. The biggest reason he had those counting stats was that he had better matchups. Now that he'll be moved up the lineup, it's going to be a bit different as he'll be facing tougher competition, especially in terms of defensive pairs on a nightly basis, and they'll want to take away him as much as possible, excuse me, because he burned basically everything. everyone through last season.

I know he was also so good in the playoffs, but I think realistically counting stats-wise, you're looking at 20 goals, 20 assists for Carter next season. I don't even know if it's going to be that high. That might just be a little bit of wishful thinking on my end, but I really wanted to make this known to everyone. And while his first season here was awesome, and then I'm really excited for him to play in Pittsburgh again next season,

he's not going to be a neuro point-per-game player next season. If he is, again, I'll, you know, I'll eat all the crow in the world, but I just don't see that happening right now. I think to start the season, you'll probably see him play with Zulker and Kappanin. I think they're going to go Gensel, Crosby, Rust, Zucker, Carter, Kappan, and whatever they want to do in the bottom six with Hinen, Aston, Reese, Bueger, McGinn, Rodriguez, Simone, etc. I think that's the line that you will see Carter start with it again. Counting stats-wise, everyone, I think 20 goals is the most you will get out of him next season.

and I don't think he's going to push for 25 to 30. Underlying numbers, hopefully they will match that production, but I guess we'll just have to see. Obviously, you'll put them on the second powerplay, not the top power play, somehow. I don't think that's going to happen. I think they'll put him on the second powerplay. He'll get some of his production there.

It won't be half of it, but I would say maybe 10 of those 40 points, or maybe 15 of those points will come from the powerplay. And then I'm sure if they want to, they can just put them on the PK as well, though. In a very limited sample size last season, 19. The expected goals against was 8.71 plus 27% for the Penguins PK with him on the ice. So they may not want to do that because the Penguins PK without Carter on there, 6.5 to expect to goals against per 60 minus 5% in parentheses.

So that is a lot better, that's for sure. And then in terms of power play offense with Carter on the ice, only 18 minutes on there, 3.55, expected goals for minus 48%. Very small sample sizes. Again, I'm sure they'll probably want to give him a little more power play time. with Hvgeny Malkin being out for a bunch of next season. We still do not know how long he will be out for, but as each passing day goes and there's no news out about it,

I just don't think that there's going to be a lot of good news about it until we actually see him start skating again. But that'll do it for this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I appreciate all of you listening to this one. We'll have another one of these either tomorrow or Thursday and then to wrap up sometime on Friday. Of this week, I am in the process of booking some other big, time, yes, I'm not allowed to speak about them at some point, but I am in the process of doing that.

Hopefully, that will be coming within the next week or two or something like that. So I just wanted to fill you all in with that. Also, look for the top 50 player poll for the locked on NHL host. After a bit of mangling some of the people, Evgeny Malkin did make the top 50 poll, but I'm not going to say where he was put yet until I release my video about it, which will go on the Lockdown Penguins Twitter. count. So that will do it for this one. Hope you all have a great rest of your day, and we'll do another one of these either tomorrow or on Thursday.