Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - How hard will it be to replace ZAR?

Episode Date: July 8, 2021

No ocean for this one, sorry peeps. There's still some good content to get to in the latest episode of Locked On Penguins and it includes Zach Aston-Reese's season review! Before that though, Hunter dives into Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final and what went wrong for the Tampa Bay Lightning. How on earth was Montreal able to kill off that four-minute minor? Does the series get past tonight's game? Was it still a lousy decision to not dress JK or Tatar? After that, Hunter does get into ZAR's season and looks at how dominant he was defensively. Would he be the hardest of the three to replace from the fourth line? Is he the engine that makes that line go? Finally, the show ends with some interesting but fun mailbag questions!Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Your Locked-on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Your team every day. Everyone and welcome to this Wednesday evening episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow the show's Twitter at L.O. underscore Penguins.

This episode is brought to you by Spotify Green Room. You can download the app, excuse me, and join me. Well, for this week, I have not done a green room, locker room, and Lord knows how long now. I do want to change that. I may try to do something sometime this weekend, Saturday, Sunday, if not, definitely sometime next week.

You can download the app and join me around that time to get in on the action. I'll have more details for you all as it gets closer. In case anyone cannot hear the ocean, that is not going to be featured on today's episode. I'm actually indoors for this one. I got some family members on the balcony. I was able to reserve it for like 20, to 30 minutes on Monday, but there was no dice for tonight. But I'm getting ready to watch Game 5.

The Stanley Cup Final List still, of course, have to do an episode. I guess we'll touch on Game 4 to start out this first segment before continuing our player season reviews. Today's one will be Zach Aston-Reeze. It is very likely, I think, that we have seen him play his last game in a Penguin uniform. I am begging this franchise. You know, Ron Hextel and Brian Burke to do something soon so that I actually have something meaningful to talk about. I'm going to try to bring on a couple more guests here. as the offseason continues.

But there's no doubt going to be some form of some moves coming with this team, especially with Free Agency, just a couple weeks to get away. Expansion, I think now is, I think it's officially two weeks away, if I'm not mistaken. And then, of course, you know, the draft is right around that same timeline as well. Then in August, you know, that's really when the true dog days of summer come out. And then September at least when training camp comes out, that's nice. And then mid-October is when the season is supposed to start. But, you know, getting back to game four to Stanley Cup final,

I honestly thought Tampa Bay was going to boat race Montreal right out of their own building. On Monday, it just, it looked like it was going to be a slaughter. I think like 15 minutes in the shots were like 12 to 3 in favor of Tampa. Then, of course, right on cue, Montreal scores to make it one nothing. It's like, that's the beauty of this score. You know, when one team is dominating 15, 16 minutes into the game and, you know, the other team can't even get a shot off. Usually when they get their first or second shot off,

they're going to score. That's basically what happened in game four is the have scored to make it one-nothing. Not a long way after that, though. Tampa Bay does come back and tie it. Then Romanov comes back late in the third. Well, I shouldn't say late in the third. I think it was, you know, before the 10-minute mark, make the 2-1. Then Pat Maroon scores to make it 2-2.

You know, I even tweeted this out, you know, can't wait for the takes of, you know, of the identity line winning the Stanley Cup for Tampa Bay and not know their stars, especially if they win this game because Barclay Goodroes scored the other goal. and then of course Patrick Maroon had the tying goal before Josh Anderson won it with a hell of an effort in overtime. But I thought, you know, especially as that third pairing came to a close, when Shea Weber took that four-minute minor, I'm like, oh, this is done. I mean, I thought there was not a prayer in the world for Montreal to win that game, especially because Tampa Bay, their power play is so vaunted. And I know Montreal's penalty kill is pretty good, but I did not expect it to kill off a Tampa Bay power play that lasted four minutes. Carrie Price was sensational during those four minutes.

And honestly, he was sensational for that entire game. That was the best game that he had played during this series. And he's going to have to be like that again tonight if Montreal has any chance of sending it back to the bell center. I don't think that's going to happen. I know I teased on last episode that it was probably going to be a sweep. I'll get old takes exposed to that one. I don't think this series will continue out tonight. But, you know, I'm not going to make any promises because a lot of my predictions for these playoffs have just been.

mostly pretty bad, I would say. So I'm just not going to really going to say anything at this point. I'm sure some of you saw the Tampa Bay mayor. This was going around, I think, all of social media, talking about how she even wanted the team to lose in Montreal, have the Habs win the game. I think the quote was, bring it back to Tampa Bay and close it out there.

And it was just like, that was the most cringe quote, I think, of all time. And, you know, we'll see if she's right. You know, imagine if the game was supposed to be played yesterday, instead of today. They had good timing for that because in case anyone is not aware, Hurricane Elsa made landfall along the western side of Florida, which of course is where Tampa Bay is, and it basically swarmed Tampa with a lot of rain, a lot of wind,

and I'm sure there's plenty of people that are without power as well. So if the game was scheduled for yesterday, I'm pretty sure it would have been postponed. You're still probably going to see a full house tonight no matter what, but definitely be thankful that the game was not yesterday because I think that would have caused the NHL a world of problems. But again, getting back to that overtime winner, what an effort first from Josh Anderson to go down but still get the puck to the net.

And Cole Cawfield was able to put a nice shot on net. The rebound kicks out to Anderson. He's able to score while falling. He was able to get up, then score while falling. Just an amazing individual effort by both of those players. Caulfield is going to be a star in this league. It is criminal that he was not in the starting lineup for the playoffs when Montreal initially started out. But thank God they put him in when they did because he has been a revelation for them these entire playoffs.

I also love the play of Nick Suzuki thus far. He's going to be one heck of a player as he gets into his peak years. And then like I said, Josh Anderson. I know I dumped on him a bit on Monday's episode, but that was a great individual effort despite his pretty bad contract and probably not living. up to the AAV that he has on that deal as well. But Montreal was able to get a win. They're still down three games to one in the series. They're going to keep the same lineup intact for tonight.

That's not surprising. You know, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. I still think they should have found a way to get Tomas de Tartre in there. Same with Kaki Nemi. Tampa Bay, I think, has the same lineup tonight. No Alex Coulorn again, but honestly, I'm sure they can win one of three games without him. So we will see what happens tonight.

This could be the last game that we see until mid-October, which would be what three months from now I think so that is my segment on the Stanley Cup final though before we do get to the next segment I'm not going to tease an ad read but there has been some stuff going on around the league it sounds like that a trade between the Oilers and the Blackhawks is coming close it sounds like Duncan Keith may be going to the Edmonton Oilers and as Adam Greggs tweeted out this morning it is basically the perfect marriage and I'm not going to quote his full tweet but it just this is what the Oilers do man I mean they just

They love to make these risky moves for all the wrong reasons. They want to bring in this guy for veteran leadership and to think that this could get them over the hump when their biggest issue is, well, one, you know, maybe finding a goalie, but even higher than Matt, getting players to round out their bottom six. Their roster, as Nick Serrara said on his radio show tonight with a couple other of his buddies, it is Connor McDavid, Leon Dreisidal, Oscar Clefbaum went healthy, Ryan Nugent Hopkins, and that's basic. it. I mean, okay, darn-nell nurse, he's not bad. Ethan Bear, okay, but the rest of that roster is a bunch of below replacement level players who are just not good. And the sooner Ken Holland realizes that and can get McDavid the help that he needs, the sooner the Oilers will actually be a Stanley Cup contender who can actually

potentially win a trophy. But it doesn't look like that's going to happen right now. And, you know, as Adam also touches on his tweet, you know, when they make this trade, it's going to have their media saying, what happened to this guy, Keith that is, when the team loses in five games to the Colorado Avalanche, because I'm sure that definitely would happen. And, you know, they always like to do that when the oilers, excuse me, acquire like a not-so good player, especially with Adam Morrison, you know, oh, what happened to him? He was playing so well during the regular season or okay in better terms.

What happened to him in the playoffs? It's like, yeah, he's not giving you the value that he should be giving you because he was traded for one of the best pure left-wingers in the sport. And that's the problem with Edmonton, man. I mean, they always value the wrong things for their team. And it's so frustrating to see that over and over again. I honestly just want Connor McDavid to ask out already because he does not deserve this. I mean, he just, this should not be a thing right now, at least in my opinion.

But, okay, that wraps up this first segment of the Locktime Penguins podcast. Coming up in the next one, we are going to touch on the Zach Ashton Reese's season review. And then the next time, we are going to get to some mailbag questions when it comes to this team. But before we do get to that, it's time to talk about Bilt Bar. We still have that limited time flavor, the Built Grasshopper cookie. It's available this week only until the 9th. You can get that new flavor. Well, what does it taste like? It's Bilt Bar's version of the classic thin mint cookie, all the flavor without all that sugar, 150 calories, 17 grams of protein, and only 5 grams of sugar. We still have your favorite ones as well with strawberry,

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post-game breakdowns, and, of course, reacting to big news or rumors. You'll have a chance to chat with me. It might even have a chance to be featured on the Lockdown Penguins podcast through our Green Room conversations. Be sure to join me this week. I'm hoping to do something around the weekend. If not, definitely sometime next week. Go download the free Green Room app right now,

currently available on all iOS devices. Be sure to create a profile, link your Twitter, and join the NHL group for the latest league updates. Follow me at Hunter Hodes. We notify when my room goes live. I know you won't want to miss it. Like I said, I'm planning to be live. Hopefully this weekend or early next week.

I can't wait to hear everyone's thoughts on the Penguins and see you there. Green Room changing the way we talk sports. All right, welcome back to this episode of the Locked On Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. Morda. Follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. For all the show's Twitter at L.O. I'm going to continue our season reviews.

today with Zach Aston Ries, who I know I teased early on in this episode that is unlikely, I think, that he is going to be here next season, at least as Jesse Marshall tweeted out the other day, Seattle can only take one of those three players. I think it would be harder to replace Aston Reese, though, than it would be Blugher. Don't get wrong, I still would protect Bluger over Jeff Carter, but I still think you could find a center cheap enough on the market to replace him, but you can't replace what Ashton Reese does on a nightly basis that well. I mean, even in the playoffs this year in a small sample size,

he was on the ice for 56% of the shot attempts. And his expected goals was 63.5%. He was on the ice for 63.4% of the scoring chances. And if you want to look, this is very small sample size, but look at this, 15 high danger chances for two high danger chances against. He and his line were just carving up the islanders on a nightly basis. I know the Islanders and their fans like to say that they have the best fourth line in hockey, but that is just not true at all.

I mean, 15 to 2 during that series. And a lot of those times they were going up against the Islanders' fourth line. Sometimes they were going up against the top six. I know Pierre-Maguire like to talk about how there's no analytic equation for Mike Sullivan putting them out there against top competition. I mean, there is, though, if they only conceded freaking two high-danger chances against all the competition. And he was on the ice for 63.4% of the scoring chances at 5.5. for that series. So he is basically the juice of that line.

And again, it will be a lot harder to replace him than it would be Teddy Bluger or even Brian and Tanna. Going to the regular season, his numbers weren't as good, especially well for shot attempts, 47.6% of those. For actual goals for, though, he's on the ace for 50, about 59% of those.

Scoring chances for, he was on the ice for 50.1% his expected goals, 50.8, so around 51%. High danger, around 51.3% of the high danger chances when he was on the ice, and then for actual high danger goals for 56.2% of those. If I go to Micah's page here real quick and just type in, just to look at the 5.5 offense and the defense for him when he's on the ice. And his defense, it is just, so with Ashton Reese on the ice this season, this is remarkable to look at.

559 minutes. The expected goals against 1.99 minus 21% in parentheses, that is really freaking good. And if you look at the excess shots per hour, for those of the better listen before, the more blue there is on the map, especially in the high danger areas, the more that means that he's just clogging those up

and not letting any player get to the net. There is a sea of blue right in the middle of the slot going up to the front of the net. He was not allowing any high danger chances in those spots. There's a bit of red from the blue line. Basically, if you walk the entire blue line, there's a lot of red, a lot of the shots to be when you were on the ice. You don't want to allow the players to get

to those prime scoring chances, excuse me, between the dots, around the dots in front of the net. Austin Reese made sure that as is expected goals against for 60 minutes was 1.99. I think that's one of the best marks on the team. If you go to his previous season, it was at 1.63. So it was actually better during the 2019-20 season than it was this season. But the fact that it's still below two continues to show that he is one of the best defensive forwards, not only on the Penguins, but around the league. He's offense, though, expected goals for per 62.07. There's a lot of blue around the net, which of course is not good,

a lot of red around the point. You want to get more red in those prime scoring chances, as I have been talking about. But then if you go to the Penguins' 535 defense without Asson Reese on the ice, it's about 2.36. So that's a 15% difference if you look in the parentheses there. And there is actual red in the front of the net for the high danger areas for that.

Then, of course, there's not with Aston Rees. So that just goes to show that when Ashton Reese is on the ice, the opposition is not getting anything with regards to zone time, good sworey chances. But when he's not on the ice, the penguins are conceding a lot more. And again, that just goes to show. I talked about this going into this last season. Ashton Reese is the most underrated and most underappreciated player on this team.

I mean, his defensive impact is second to none, and he also was not bad, I thought, offensively this season. Put up nine goals, 15 points in the 45 games. His 15 points was the second most of his career. His nine goals were the most that he's had during his four seasons of his career. I really hope that Seattle does not pick him in the expansion draft because it is very unlikely that he is protected. if anyone has not listened to this podcast before.

I mean, there is just, the Penguins just don't have the room to protect Aston Rees. I'm sure if they could, they would, but with how many other good players that they have to protect, Ashton Rees will get exposed. I wouldn't be surprised if he is the pick. I actually think it's likely that he's going to be the pick, and it's going to suck as if he's the pick, but I really do hope they go in a different direction, somehow takes someone maybe like Jason Zooker or something like that and leave that Ashton-Rees-Lugert Tand-Line line. intact, though. It is extremely likely, I think, that one of those three players is out of Pittsburgh

this coming season, and that means, especially if it's astramese, they got to find a way to replace him in free agency, because there are, excuse me, there are not many players around the league. I can do what he does on a nightly basis, especially in the defensive zone. If he is on the team next year, I'm honestly expecting the same amount of production from him. Maybe, I think I might up it a bit. He only played him, what, 45 games? If this were a 82 game season, he'd be on pace for almost 30 points. I think he gets to that next season. I think you see him get around 10 goals, 15 assists next season, maybe 25 points, or potentially even 12 to 13 goals in around 15 assists. I really do think he could get there next season. And you'll continue to see his defensive impacts

be off the charts for the Penguins. That is my prediction for Ashnery's next season if he is on the team. Before we do get to the mailback questions, though, it's time to talk about bet on online the fastest and easiest way to bet on all your sports action. Baseball season is in full three, and you can track all the action at Bed Online before the next pitch, head over to Bed Online on your laptop or phone, and check out all the great sporting news, sound-up bonuses and contest information. You can head to the

website or use your mobile device to sound up today and receive your 50% off welcome bonus on your first deposit. That's better online, your online sportsbook experts with the promo code, Locked On. All right, welcome back to this episode of the Locked On Penguin's podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter

at Hunter Hodes, follow this show's Twitter at L.O. underscore Penguins. So we do have a couple of mailbag questions to get to to wrap up today's episode of the Locked on Penguins podcast. So let's get into them right now. The first one comes from Gilbert the Goat. He actually asked a couple pretty good questions. The first to start with is Mike Matheson's contract unmovable. I think it is.

I don't think anyone around the league is touching that contract. I mean, that still has what? Five more years, 4.8 million per. And the funny thing is, man, I really liked what Matheson brought to this team this past season. I mean, that first month definitely wasn't the greatest, but after that, I thought he really settled in and played some great hockey for this team. It's just,

if he only had two more years left at $4.8 million per, I could live with that. But the fact that it's five more years, that's just, it's so bad. I really don't think Ron Hextall can move that contract. He really, I think, is,

I don't want to cuss here on this podcast that much anymore, but he's definitely a bit screwed with that I don't think the penguins can move that. I think it's more likely that you see Pedersen moved over Mathis. And he also has to think Zuckra is gone before the start of next season. That's a tough call. If he's taken an expansion, obviously, well, he will be gone.

That's big help to the Penguins Cap situation. If he's not, I think I'm more inclined to think that Zooker is going to be on this team next season. I think Hexthal likes him quite a bit. I think this season, a lot of it had to do with bad luck. I think Zulker was also overthinking it in a lot of situations. He just wasn't firing the football. puck on net for whatever reason. I mean, he would come down plenty of two-on-ones. He would pass first instead of shooting first when he was in such a scoring rut. And it's like, dude, just take the

selfish play and fire it to the net. You don't have to be the hero and pass it when there really is no passing lane. Just shoot it on the two-on-one. That's usually what a player is supposed to do in that situation. But going back to your question, I don't think he's moved. That being said, it wouldn't surprise me if Hextol decides to deal him if he's not taking his ban. Especially because I think a team will take a chance on a player like Zucker, and even though he has a bit of a high cap hit, again, he's probably good for around 40 to 45 points on a contending team. And I think they could still get a decent package for him in return.

Last question, he asked, how much do you think would it would cost for Blake Coleman aside in Pittsburgh this off season? Okay. Yes, I know a lot of people are talking up Blake Coleman. Trust me, I get it. You know, he is basically one of the best free agents, excuse me, on the open market. For the Penguins, though, if they could create enough cap space, to do this, it would probably be five times five, five times six.

I think that's probably what it would cost for Blake Coleman to sign in Pittsburgh. The Penguins would probably have to pay him five to six million per for him to sign here. And obviously the Penguins are just not going to have that kind of cap space unless they move Zucker out. They move Pedersen out. You know, someone else is taking an expansion. You know, they would just, they would have to create quite a bit of cap space, I think, to sign him. You know, they also have to sign Teddy Bluger. if he's not taking expansion, you know, especially if both Bluger and Aston Rees are not

taking, taking an expansion, excuse me, those are contracts that Pittsburgh will have to sign for next season since both are on FAs, and that's also going to take up a little chunk of their cap space. So right now, I'd say it's definitely unlikely that Coleman will sign here, but, you know, it still makes a lot of sense, but for the cost, I'm thinking five years, five million per, five years, six million per, at least that's my opinion right now. The next question comes from Alan T. Yoder. And this is definitely an interesting one. I had to read it a few times, but thank you for this question.

He asks, since this is a big thing with the Sears and then the Penguins, which is the TikTok partnership, then he puts parentheses, you know, there are probably people blaming that for the first round exit. All right, I got to admit, that was definitely kind of funny that you put that in there. What impact, if any, does player social media have while a sporting event is being played? That's actually a great question. Thank you for asking me that. I think it can have a pretty decent impact.

You don't want it to be like the Devin Bush saga that's going on right now with the Pittsburgh Theores, in case anyone is unaware of that. He's just basically tweeting his ass off about anything and everything and kind of acting like a baby version of Antonio Brown. It's just like, okay, man, you got to chill out a little bit. But, you know, it can definitely have a pretty big impact. I mean, a lot of the Penguins players, though, tend to not tweet as much or be on social media. I mean, Cindy Crosby's not on social media, but I mean, Brian Russ doesn't tweet that much, Brian Dumlin, Jared McCann.

They're mainly a team that just kind of keeps their mouth shut. I mean, I think that's probably, that's probably instructed from ownership on down. But for some teams, you know, it can definitely have, you know, a big impact. I mean, you know, you look at, you know, Vegas and Robin Lanner, he's definitely more active on social media than most. But he's also, like, not a bad person on social media, you know. He'll engage with the fans, which is pretty cool. some people will just tweet out and then not really engage with anyone but at least he's able to go out there and engage with people but you also don't want to go out there tweet stupid stuff and then engage with people and just say some hurtful stuff because you know that can look bad especially when a sporting event is being played because then you can get called out you know you'll have to have your agent stepping you know the team will maybe have to issue a PR statement all that yada yada yada yada stuff so um like i said i know i've probably been going around in circles here alan but i think it could definitely have a big event while a sporting event is being played.

But I'll always say this to everyone that's trying to get into the field or already is in the field. Just you always got to watch what you say. You know, even, you know, people will always, even if it's the smallest things, trust me. I mean, I'm sure I said a lot of stupid stuff on Twitter back when I was 15, 16 years old, something like that. I mean, obviously, like nothing like really malicious or anything. But, you know, just even now, especially in 2021 where, you know, there's, like I said, there's a lot more censorship, a lot more people are watching. You always got to just think before you tweet

and think before you post stuff on social media because you never know, like I said, who's watching. You don't want to make yourself look like complete ass on the internet for no reason, especially if you're trying, you know, to, like I said, to get into the industry or even if it's not like in the sports industry,

if you say like people that you work with have your social media, like do people you work with really want to see you tweet out a bunch of garbage that's just not true? And it's like, wow, you know, that they could show, this to your employer and stuff. So I just wanted to set that out there as well, but thank you for that question, Alan.

Yeah, I'm sure there are probably people out there blaming TikTok for the first round of the Penguins lost. But, I mean, yeah, a player of social media definitely could have a lot of impact because, like I said, you know, you don't want to make yourself look like an idiot, you know, cough, cough, Tony DiAngelo on Twitter for, you know, being, you know, full right, you know, as a Trump supporter and then just saying he's going to start a podcast and talking about how the liberal agenda is just so screwed up and et cetera, et cetera. You just, you always got to watch what you tweet.

But thank you for that question. Appreciate you asking. I appreciate all the questions I got for this mailbag. Segment, excuse me, for this part of the podcast. I know there was only two people that asked them, but Gilbert, thank you so much for the three questions that you asked me. And we'll do another one of these episodes tomorrow. Hopefully at that point, we will have the winner of the Stanley Cup.

It doesn't look like there's any score right now. Tampa Bay. Last I checked was out shooting them like 12 to 3. So basically it's the same start as game before. We will see if Tampa Bay can this time keep their foot on the pedal and not let Montreal back into the game. But that'll do it for this one and we'll do another one of these tomorrow.