Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - How much can Ryan Poehling contribute this season?

Episode Date: July 20, 2022

The news is starting to dry up but that doesn't mean there's nothing to talk about when it comes to the Pittsburgh Penguins. Hunter starts Tuesday's show off by diving into Ryan Poehling since he was basically forgotten about during the last couple of episodes. What kind of player are the Penguins getting in him? What do the underlyings look like? Could this be a true change of scenery? Hunter dives into all of those questions, especially the last one since he wasn't panning out in Montreal. He also looks at which players he would best with and how getting him carries very little risk for this season. Following that, Hunter dives into grading Ron Hextall's offseason so far and eats some of his words after criticizing him a few weeks ago. He gives his grade and the reasoning for it, while also again saying that more work needs to be done. He then gives what his final grade could be if he's able to fix the elephant in the room with two months to go. Finally, Hunter ends the show with some silly season talk about Matthew Tkachuk and how much fun it would be if the Penguins got him (no, it's not happening). All that, plus much more on this episode of Locked On Penguins.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello, Penguins fans. Happy Tuesday, July 19th, we are just flying through this soft season. Before you know it, training camp is going to be here in two months. Just think about that. We're about seven, eight weeks away from Penguins training camp being right back here. But, you know, still, you know, I guess a little ways to go until then, you know, the dog days of August are upon us when, you know, there's just not probably not going to be a lot of NHL news, say the least. but for today's show, I'm going to get into Ryan Poling because I don't really think I talked about him that much when discussing the big tradeback got Jeff Beatry here, but, you know,

Ryan Poling was also thrown into that, you know, very young player, former first round pick, someone that, you know, might be a late bloomer. His underlings aren't that good, but, you know, has the potential turn around here. I'll go into his numbers where I see him fitting on the team, at least right now. We're also going to get into what I saw from Josh Yoey today. to just talk about Ron Hextall's tenure as a whole. I'm going to give my full grade on this off season so far. And, you know, just talk about, you know,

I think just everything combined and what is to come. And maybe also talk about what happened last off season. And then for the final segment, we're going to get into a little bit of some silly season stuff with Matthew Kachuk, because I'm sure that's going to come to do ahead very, very soon. So that's all coming up right after this drop. You're locked on penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network,

your team every day. Hello, welcome back to another episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hoddes. You're going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hote. You can also follow the shows, Twitter, at L-O-N. And, of course, thank you all so much for making this your first listen of the day. More record-setting numbers for this podcast lately. we are in the dog days of the offseason or just about coming up.

This podcast is number 11 in the country on Apple when you go to chartable.com and search up hockey podcasts. I cannot thank all of you enough for listening to the show, whether it's one episode, five episodes, 10 episodes, 100, you know, maybe more of, maybe more than that. If you can stand listening to me and my bad takes about the penguins, I'm just messing around with that last part, potentially. But, you know, it's just, it's crazy that, you know, the podcast has basically top 10 among listenership in this country for all hockey podcasts when there's not

a lot of hockey being played right now. You know, two of the most recent episodes or, you know, two of the most listened to episodes in the podcast history. That just goes to show that, you know, this fan base is probably, not that's not probably. This fan base is, I think, the best one in all of hockey. So thank you all so much for listening. If you do have the show, you can comment on the YouTube page, give a review on Apple. If you don't like the show, you know, just maybe keep that comment, I guess, to yourself,

or I guess just don't listen, but I don't know why people would hate listen to podcasts. That's just weird behavior. Let's get into our first discussion for today. And that's Ryan polling. So, you know, I don't think a lot of people, you know, knew who he was when he came over in this trade. I mean, you know, me personally, I didn't really know much about him. The underlying metrics, you know, they're not great. You know, fourth liner, this is per J. Fresh.

his stuff, you know, 23 years old, but he's only making 800K for the next year. 11th percentile and wins about replacement, only the 34th percentile for five-on-five offense. That means two-thirds of his peers are better than him at that. 17th percentile for finishing. Seventh percentile for power play, even strike defense, 84 percent of the players are better than him with that. Goals per 60, below 30 percent.

Primary assists per 60, below 35 percent. He's able to draw some penalties, but, you know, just a lot of. a red in there. You know, it's just, you know, this is a player that, you know, really has not panned out. You know, ever since he was taking 25th overall in the 2017 NHL draft. You know, he's really only played, he only actually played 85 games in three seasons, 2018, 19, played one game, had a hack trick in his first NHL game, which is pretty crazy. Didn't really play after that. 2019, 20, 27 games, only two points. And then this past year, played about 60 of the

games. Nine goals, 17 points. So, you know, I guess that's not terrible for fourth liner, but, you know, you still expect, I think, a little bit better. And I know he was on a pretty crappy team. But, you know, the fact that he did almost score 10 goals on a bad team, you know, I think that could potentially be, you know, to the Penguins' advantage, because I think he'll hopefully be playing with better players in the bottom section, you know, like a Teddy Bougar, Brock Lincoln, or something like that. You know, I do think he is in their plans. to start the season. I don't think, I mean, I don't think. I mean, he should be, you know, I know the bottom six is not good right now, but he 100% should be over the lives of like,

Drake Cajula, Josh Archibald, a couple of these other guys from Wilkesbury. And it's a no-brainer, in my opinion. He only has one year left on his contract again, at 800K. You really got to see what he has for this year. I believe he's an RFA after this. So the Penguins, they should have his rights after this. But, you know, the good part about this kid is that, he's only 23. He still has a lot of room to grow as a player. You know, only 85 games in HL experience. So some kids, you know, there are sometimes late rumors.

And sometimes, you know, they do need, you know, that change of, that change of scenery. Good Lord. What the heck was that? Sometimes they do need that, you know, just to be a better player, you know, for their career. I'm going to his page on Natural Statrick right now. So 586 minutes at 5 to 5 this past season. When he was on the Iceland, Canadians only had 45% of the Sean attempts. 34% of the actual goals for, I think.

Part of that I think is due to his play, but I also think part of that is due to Montreal being putrid defensively. They had some of the worst defensive metrics in the league. 45% of the expected goals share, 45% of the scoring chances share. only six high danger goals for for the Canadians when he was on the ice, 19 high danger goals against. That was a massive yikes. So, yes, the underlines are bad.

Accounting stats, not the best either, as Louis Doming said after, I shouldn't say after, you know, it was after that game, one triple overtime. But, you know, after that, I'm not really going to pay too much attention to him now that he's in New York. But again, I really do think that Mike Sullivan, and his coaching staff can do some work with this player. I'm not going to sit here and tell you he's going to, you know,

score 15 to 20 next year or something like that. But, you know, I think he can maybe get, what, 10 to 12 if he does play a full season. I think his underlines could improve by playing with better than players such as Teddy Bluger, who's, you know, a much, you know, more defensive-minded center than someone who he was playing with in Montreal. You know, he's definitely a player. I'm really intrigued about going into this season. I doubt he'll start the season in Wilkesbury.

I think at the worst case for him speaking, he's the 13th forward. But again, at least for right now, I do think he is going to be on this team for the opening night roster. And I'm expecting to stay on this team throughout the season. I don't think they would have asked for him in the trade. if they probably didn't see him being in the lineup the entire season. Again, I know the metric stink.

I know his coming stats aren't that good. Even, you know, a stat that I hate to reference plus minus, I think it is one of the most useless stats out there to use an evaluate player. I will say, though, minus 21 is pretty freaking terrible. That's not good. Again, no, I hate using it. I almost never use it when evaluating a player. There's so many other stats to use.

but, you know, that one's bad enough where I think it deserves an honorable mention there. But, you know, we've seen players come from, you know, struggling situations and, you know, play some of their best hockey. You know, even, you know, Mike Matheson. And, yeah, sure, he was a better player at that time when he was in Florida, you know, then Ryan Poling. But, you know, pulling is also younger than Matheson. he can really skate decent bottom six score at least this year. And if he adds some tools to his game and he's able to improve defensively, I think he could potentially be a decent bottom six player for at least this year

and potentially next year in the year after that. He's 23. I think he's worth the chance to take a little bit of a risk on. I mean, and honestly, there really is not that much of a risk because he's only making 800K. If it doesn't work out, you just, what, not qualify him since he's, I think he'd believe he's in RFA and then he can just walk to free agency. And then, you know, I am actually just going to make sure here that I am not screwing that up here. I'm going to go to Cap Friendly real

quick. I want to make sure that I'm not making an educated guess here. Yeah, so yeah, yeah, he will be an RFA. And again, you know, he's only, he's not making much money. So the Penguins will have his rights if they qualify him. But again, even if he doesn't play well, you don't have to qualify. I mean, you just walk to free agency. You can replace them in free agency, like, you know, just any other fourth line, third line depth player, you know,

those are the easiest spots, at least on the fourth line, you know, those are pretty easy spots to fill, you know, when you scour the open market and looking for players who, you know, A, can play and, you know, B can score. I mean, you can get some of those guys,

which, I mean, Fenton Hinen, you know, signed for pennies, last year puts up 18 goals for you. So, you know, those kind of players, they're all out there, and they're just, they're waiting to get a shot. But, you know, I do think polling is, you know, worth it to see what he has for this trade. You know, I'm excited to see what he can do in a new system with a fresh change of Syria.

Got it right there. Coming up here in this next segment, we're going to get into just overall Ron Hextall's offseason. The great I would give him right now go into all the news, just everything that he has done from the moment the penguins got eliminated in seven games by the New York. Rangers and of course, you know, what is too lightly come. Now, before I get to that, from the people who invented healthy and tasty comes the latest gift to your taste buds. You probably try the amazing coconut brownie chunk bill bar, but guess what?

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You can go to build.com, use promo code, lock 15, and get 15% off your order. Remember, that's promo code to lock 15 for 15% off your order at built.com. All right, I'm back in this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hodes. We're going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes for all the shows, Twitter at L.O. Arnold Squo Penguin. So, you know, I was inspired by this topic today because Josh Yeli of the Athletic wrote just a great article.

I'm just, you know, detailing Hextall's tenure as a whole. He's been on the job for basically a year and a half now. It's pretty crazy how this is just flown by banging this plane. But, you know, offseason, you know, got started off with, you know, the Brian Russ contract. You know, six years, five million per. Kept the AAB down. A little bit of term. Sure, whatever.

It's not going to really matter. So it's a good check mark. Maybe a bit weird that he was prioritized first. Whatever. Okay. So then you get the Casey to Smith. on track. Okay. You know, I wasn't too big of a fan of it at the time because I'm not, I'm still, I guess, a little uncomfortable riding the same goalie tandem back three years

in a row. But, you know, you look at some of the other options out there that signed, you know, I mean, even everyone wanted Florida to come back, but he got 3.5 million for two years in Minnesota. Penguins were not going to pay that. You know, you saw some of these other goleys, I think Yarrow Halak got like a similar deal to dismiss. and then, you know, Braden Holpe, it sounds like was retiring, according to Frank Seravali. So, you know, when you really think about it, 1.8 is really not that bad to Smith. I mean, Gerardie's making 3.5. So you're spending a little over $5 million on your goal lease.

I think that's the best case, you know, you don't usually want a lot of money tied up to your goaltending unless you, you know, absolutely have to, you know, that's like Andre Vasselowski, prime carry price back in the day, prime Hendrik Lundquist back in the day. You don't want to be paying your goalie's top dollar if you don't have to. So, you know, obviously up next was the Chris the Tang deal. Six times six, people had a problem with the term. Again, I really don't care about it. The team is going to be bad at that point.

You got him for a freaking discount. Everyone was saying, including myself, I will take that on that too. I was like, you know, this is probably going to be like a, you know, four times eight, five times eight, something like that. Nope, six times six. That comes out of nowhere. well, I will say this, you know, I'll give credit to Rob Rossi on that. He was the first one to actually say that he was hearing that it was going to be six years. So he was right on that one.

That's for sure. So that was able to keep that AEV down. And then obviously the again Malkin situation happens four times six point one. The fact that Hextall got both Latang and Malkin signed for 12.2 million is unbelievable. That is a massive W, as the kids like to say. The only contract that, you know, I'm still a little bit hesitant on, was Ricard, is still Ricard Raquel. Six times five, you know, six, again, the term, you know,

we can argue about that until, you know, the sun comes up every day. The five million, you know, I mean, I know that's probably close to the going rate for a reliable top six winger, but, you know, I want to see if Raquel can do that for a full season. I'm worried about it because we only had such a small sample size for it. And I talked about one of my episodes a week and a half ago two weeks ago.

You know, if you play him with Sid, I said this before. I think, you know, he could definitely score 20 to 25. And, you know, that's going to be the big question. Are you going to get a player who scores 15 to 18 a year for a full season? or are you going to get a player who scores 20 to 25, potentially even 30 for a full year, who really makes that no contract worth it. And I have nothing against him as a person or a player.

I think he's very good. He's great with a puck on his stick. You know, he's able to freeze defenders very beautifully, has a wicked release, is able to knife through guys like it's nothing, you know, the play that I think about all the time. Just, you know, it was the one on four against, one on three, basically against the Sabres late.

in the season and he took them all on and almost had the goal of the year for the Penguins. So, you know, his skill, you know, it's never, you know, not been there. You know, he's always been skillful. It's just a matter of, you know, can he produce for a full season. So, you know, the jury, I think, is still a little bit out on that one. But, you know, I think overall, you know, he got those, all four of those players to Smith, Ross, I'm not just Smith. Ross, Raquel, Malkin, and Latang's, what, 22 million billion.

basically, and that's, you know, three of those players are going to be playing in your top six. So 17 million of those players in the top six. You add that up with Sidney Crosby. That's about 26 million. That's some nice salary cap work there. And then he made the two trades this past weekend, getting Jeff Petrie for Mike Matheson, and then, you know, dumping John Reno's contract for Ty Smith. You know, I really like the moves that he made to upgrade the defense.

It was clear that he did not like the defensive group after the playoffs. He probably did not like if they were ever. pushed around, gave up leads in multiple games, and he wanted to make sure that that's not going to happen again. So I was a fan of those moves. You know, I'm slowly starting to eat my words a little bit with this general manager. But as Josh wrote today, you know, we all know what the biggest question is. It's the bottom six. Who is going to be scoring the goals? You know, if the season were to start today and still three months away, so I don't even know why I'm saying this, but I'm going to put it out there. If the season war to start today, who is going to score,

the goals down there, maybe outside of Jeff Carter. I know he had 18 last year, but is he going to do that again? I'm a little skeptical, at least myself. Teddy Bluger, I mean, he's fine defensively, but, you know, I mean, for a lot, you know, I just don't get the sense that, you know, the staff is really that enamored, you know, with him, to be honest. Brock McGinn, he struggled the second half of the season down the stretch. He started out the season nicely, but, you know, three more years at $2.75 million.

No, not looking good. to say the least. You know, Drew O'Connor, he's a massive unknown. I mean, 20 games of a sample size, basically, played fine. And I would probably say that he's, you know, the Penguins' best bet for the players to come up from, I guess in terms of like, how do I want, how do I say this? You know, I think he's, you know, the best chance of any of the Wilkesbury guys

to come up and make a difference next year. But, you know, how much can you really rely on him to score, you know, double digits over an 82 game season? You know, it's just, you know, he's just so much of an unknown. and same with where deems O'Hourna. You know, he's in his mid-20s at this point. He's basically outside of his peak years, you know, how much, I mean, how much can we rely on that? You know, Balotray-Pusin, I hear this all the time too.

Oh, yeah, he's ready. He's ready. I mean, the guy played one name last year. And, you know, sure, he made a good leap to the HL. His production down there was actually pretty good. But this leap is going to be five times that. So I'm just, you know, I'm not sure. Then obviously, you know, Ryan polling, you know,

how is he going to be with a change of stringery? Then you have what, Drake Cujula, Josh Archibault, Kisbury, happening down there because it looks like he's going to be back, even though I don't think he should be back on this team. I think he should be used as trade bait.

You know, it's just, it's a bottom six that, you know, it reminds me a lot of the late Chiro days when I'm sure you all were, don't, don't plug your ears when I say these players,

but I'm sure you all remember the days when players like Zach Sill were filling the bottom six and the corpse of Craig Adams and Joe Vitale and, you know, Brian Gibbons and Bobby Farne. The weird people had like the weirdest fetish with Bobby Farm. I have no idea what that was about. I guess he just because he hit people all the time. But, you know, all those kind of Garrett Wilson of all people, you know, just Lee Steffey. I mean, at least he could play a little bit.

But, you know, those bottom sixes were horrendous. Brandon Sutter, of course. it's it's kind of looking like that right now so i think a lot of this obviously the rest of this you know that's going to be judged by how he does with that i think right now i'm giving him a solid you know i'm mostly pretty happy with the moves he's made has he had his blunders overall for his career oh absolutely i mean you know the jared mccan thing i'm still kicking my you know feet over i mean he should still be a penguin at least in my opinion of the brand intana thing sure it was nice that you got out of that contract but i'd feel more comfortable with them on

this team right now than someone i guess like you know brock or i don't know cap an or something but that's that was a rothful move wrong really didn't really have anything to do with that um but you know it's he's got to make a move or two down there but again you know i think a solid beat for that and again you know outside the blunders you know with that one you know the mcgin contract the carter extension stinks uh i'll never under understand why he did that. And, you know, again, I will say this for everyone one more time. Do not take one Hextal face value and he's just going to pump up the forward group. He has to do that. He is not going to come out here and say, oh, yeah, Jeff Carter stinks. Oh, yeah, Brock McGinn stinks. Oh, yeah, George Orchibald's terrible.

I mean, he's, he's not going to say it. He's going to pump them up. He's going to hide what he's really doing. Again, from what I have been told, the scoop I had, one of the scoops I had on my Monday episode, They want a winger to play with a Gennie Malkin, and they're seeking one via trade. That would sign Jason Zucker down the lineup. That would make the team a bit deeper. They potentially still have, you know, another forward to come in via free agency.

If they have the space for it, maybe like a Dan Hine or something like that. I don't know. But that's one of the scoops that I have been told by someone who is close to the team and that's someone who has never really, who has never failed me in the past. So a little bit of an incomplete grade, but overall, I think a solid B for this offseason so far,

this is still squarely a playoff team right now. I mean, I think overall that they would probably make them. Say they did go into the season with this bottom six. Yeah, and I don't think they will. They probably will still be in playoff position by the trade. They'll anyway because Sid and Gino and Lentang, they'll probably just get them there anyway. I think Tristan Jari's, you know,

he's probably going to have a good regular season again, too. And then they could also just, you know, trade for a wing or two. They'd go like to be like the Rangers from this past year, right? When they got Cop and with Toronto and Tyler Motton and all. those guys. So, you know, I won't, I wouldn't be, I mean, I guess I would be a little surprised if they came into the season with this bottom six, but, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if they did make at least another move at the trade deadline for almost forward if they haven't really made, like, a big one for their bottom six by then. So that wraps up this segment for today's

episode. Coming up in the final segment, we're going to get to some silly season talk regarding Matthew Kuchak, because it looks like that might be the next domino to fall. So that's all coming up right after this commercial break. All right, I'm back here on this episode of the Locktime Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hodes. Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. You can also follow the show's Twitter at L.O underscore Penguins. So I'm going to put this out here right now.

And if I get ratioed for it, if I get old takes exposed, whatever. No penguins are not trading for Matthew Kuchup. Put the stamp on it. It is not going to happen. Heck, you can even save this to your phone or something. you want to. And, you know, if it somehow does happen, you know, you can just put it in the comments. You put it, put a link on it or something like that.

But I just, I don't see it. You know, it would be a lot of fun to get someone like Matthew Kachukh, because he's, I think the exact kind of player that this team needs, you know, someone in elite play driver, elite goal score in this league, someone who can get in your face about anything, just someone who's physical, you know, gives his 100% effort. every single shift. And, you know, wouldn't it be fun if he were just, you know, going out with some of the, some of the, you know, the fan bases of vigorous rivals like Tom Wilson or something like that. Seeing him, jaw, him would be a sight for sore eyes. Or basically, you know, Brad Marshan,

even, you know, that would be hilarious too. But I just, you know, the Penguins, they don't have the package that Calgary would want. I saw this today. I was DM in my buddy about this. Eric Francis was saying, yeah, the flames are looking for a young cornerstone building player. The Penguins really don't have that. My buddy was telling me that Ty Smith could be that player, but I'm like, Penguins are not going to trade Ty Smith for Matthew Kachuk. They just acquired him. And I don't think he's a pure cornerstone player like a Jordan Kaira right now.

I mean, he's already, I think, one of the really good young players in this league. And the penguins, they also just don't have the salary cap space to get Kachuk. if they would only have that if they just unloaded a bunch of contracts. But I think the flames, you know, they're going to be interested in, you know, a couple of your top prospects, at least a first round thick, and probably, you know, again, a decent roster player like Jordan Kairu going back. And I don't think the Penguins, you know, would be wanting to pay that. Again, it would make all the sense in the world.

You can put him, you know, he could probably put him on a Guine Malkins wing and ride him with Raquel and, you know, have Gensel, Crosby Rust, and probably have the most dangerous top six imaginable. and, you know, maybe Jason Zucker is still on your third line if he's not being sent back the other way. But, you know, I'm just fantasizing about that right now. And it's definitely fun to think about with how hard the Penguins will be to play against and just how crazy, you know, that top six would be. But, yeah, I'll see it happening. I know it's silly season.

If I were to come up with, I guess, favorable, if people would want that for me, first-round pick. I mean, I was going to say Owen Pickering, but like they just drafted him and they're not going to do that. I mean, your first founder, I guess one of the goalie prospects. I'm like, it's hard for me to come up with one because the thing was, again, they just don't have what the flames would want. I mean, they're not going to trade Brian Russ. They just signed him. They're not going to trade Jake Gensel, for Chuck. I mean, Jason Zucker, you know, he could go.

That would help the cap situation. But, you know, he's not going to be the main centerpiece of the deal. I think he would just be in there for money purposes. But, you know, that's just the end of the Penguins. I just don't think they would be a good match for them. Now, if they actually had, you know, a decent farm system with, you know, some decently top prospects, you know, I would be, you know, all for it. I think the Penguins, they should still make the call.

I think every NHL team out there is doing it wrong if they're not at least inquiring about what the asking price is for Kachuk. And, you know, the flames, and it sounds like they definitely want to start over or something like that. I feel bad for their fan base because, you know, they've, those are basically two of the best players that have come through that franchise since Jerome McGimla. Was there, Mika Kiphrushov, obviously a great goaltender back in the day. But, you know, it's, you know, it looks like the potential dark days are coming for Calgary.

It's not looking good. But, yes, it would be fun for the penguins. Yes, he would probably score 30 to 35 goals. would get in everyone's face. People would hate the penguins even more. But I just, I don't see that this time. I mean, the fact that I can barely even come up with like a decent asking, a decent like return for the flames when you look at the penguins roster and their prospects and picks and all that, I think those to show that, you know, I just don't get the penguins, you know, A, their salary cap situation probably won't work. And B, you know, they just,

they don't have what it takes, I think, to get this player. So, you know, we'll see if that happens, but, you know, that has the potential to really send a shockwave, um, do you. the initial circles. But that'll do it for this episode of the Locked on Penguins podcast. Let me know what you all thought about it. Leave a comment on the YouTube page. You can message me on social media and you can leave a review on the Apple page. I'd love if you all would give me five stars. If not, you know, I do get it. But I can only hope for you all to give me five stars. But, you know, that would do it for another episode for this podcast. I believe this is the 528 episode for the show.

It's crazy how fast this is flying by. I'll have another episode on Wednesday. Again, final full week of daily episodes before I go back to three shows a week starting next Monday. So thank you all so much for listening. Again, leave a like, especially on the YouTube page. If you liked it, leave a comment also with your thoughts and anything I talked about. And if you're not on the YouTube page, you know, A, no, go subscribe to it as we get to close

to 1K. and me, again, you can message me on social media. So again, I will talk to you all on Wednesday. Have a great night.