Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - How much will social media burn if the Pittsburgh Penguins get a top 5 pick in the draft?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Hello, happy Monday, May 8th. I hope you all had a wonderful, wonderful weekend. It's a pretty special night around the NHL tonight as it's the draft lottery. And yes, the penguins are going to be part of it. No, they cannot get the number one overall pick, but they can get as high as the number four overall pick. I'm going to tell you all about that coming up right after this. You're locked on penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. part of the Locked-on Podcast Network,

Starting point is 00:00:34 your team every day. Oh, and welcome back to another episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. I'm going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes and also follow the shows, Twitter, at Enlarcial Penguins. And of course, thank you so much for making this year

Starting point is 00:01:00 for your first list in the day. We're freeing available on all platforms. So let's just jump right into it tonight, draft lottery. It feels weird, right? The Penguins are actually a part of this right now. They have projected to have the number 14 overall pick. Odds say that they are probably going to stay at that spot. Though, there is a 1.5% chance that they move up to the number four or number five overall

Starting point is 00:01:26 pick. And that means a couple of things. Number one, social media would melt. Oh, all the conspiracy theories would be back. Remember how they were when they won the lottery for Sid, Gino and all that way back. when and then now they all they're favored by the refs in the playoffs and all that garbage it would come back in a big way for this number two the penguins would have a chance to get a very and i mean a very good player if they somehow got the number four or number five overall pick that is the only

Starting point is 00:02:00 way i definitely do not trade their first round pick in this year's track and you know during this segment i am going to touch on a few players that they could potentially take I have some notes here. I'm going to Google Doc on my computer that I've been compiling about some of these top prospects. I will say right off the bat that these prospects I'm going to talk about are better than anyone that was taken in last year's draft. I mean, I think that's been widely regarded by a lot of, you know, people from elite prospects, Bob McKenzie's list, the hockey writers, all that stuff. You know, I think all these guys that I'm going to talk about are better than Slavkovsky, Shane Wright, everyone else that was. picked in the top five last year.

Starting point is 00:02:43 And also the Penguins, they wouldn't get Shane Wright. I mean, that's just, that's not going to happen. They're also not going to get, um, Fin's Hillie. I think he's going to go number two or number three overall. But they could have a shot at getting, and let me preface this, it's a 1.5% chance that they move up to the number four or number five overall pick. It's very likely not going to happen. but in the all chance it does, these are the players that I would very much consider drafting

Starting point is 00:03:14 if I were the Penguins and all these players could be really good for them in future years. Number one, Matvey Mechkov. He is being described as the best player to come out of Russia since Alex Ovechkin. I'm not getting, by the way. He has a ton of talent. Great goal score. He's a little bit short. I believe he's only making sure.

Starting point is 00:03:39 I have my notes here. 510, 148 pounds. So he does have to bulk up a little bit, but he puts up freakish numbers. If you want to go back to 2020, when he played in the Russia U-16 league, he scored 70 goals in 109 points in 26 games. 26 games, 109 points. You go to the next season when he played in the MHL for SKA, St. Petersburg, 35 goals, 52 points in 50 games.

Starting point is 00:04:07 35 goals in 50 freaking games. You go back to 21, 2021, 2022. Played same thing with the MHL. 22 goals, 38 points in 22 games. 22 goals in 22 games, a goal per game player. Played in the Russia International, had some good production there. This past year, he is in the KHL, played for SKA Peters.

Starting point is 00:04:31 He's only played three games. Has no points right now, but, you know, he's playing the VHL, 14 points in 12 games, 20 points in 27 games for Sochi. He is ridiculously good. But the thing with him, though, this might scare some teams away. I think maybe scare the Penguins away. He's under contract in the KHL, and he's not eligible to go to the NHL until 2025, 2026.

Starting point is 00:05:02 So in this hypothetical, if the Penguins were to take him, he would not be really eligible to play for the team until Evgeny Malkin is 40 years old and Sidney Crosby is 39 years old. You see where I'm getting at? It would be tough for them, I think, to take him because I think they would want someone on an ELC that can contribute either this upcoming season or the next season.

Starting point is 00:05:26 It's just, are the penguins willing to wait for him? That's my biggest question. And it's very hard for some of these two Russian prospects to get out. of their contracts early. I know the Capitol just got lucky with Miros Seneca. He signed his ELC. He's potentially going to be a player for them next season, but it's pretty rare. You know, he is a dynamic goal score. Again, he's a bit small. His defensive ability is not as good right now, but he can also work on that. But at the end of the day, he is a pure playmaker, a great goal score.

Starting point is 00:05:59 He would be the best prospect this team has had in quite a long time. There is also, Leo Carlson, who is going to be there, I think, at, you know, number four, number five overall. This past season played in the SHL and the Sweden Hockey League, played 44 games, 10 goals, 25 points in those 44 games. Also played in the international for Sweden's under 20, 15 games, 10 goals, 17 points in those games. You know, before that, he's played in the, you know, Orbro, HK, Junior 20 league. That was in 2020, 2021, had 10 goals, 27 points in 14 games. he's had pretty solid production.

Starting point is 00:06:37 He can potentially make the jump to the league as early as next season. He could use another year and he is under contract with his current team for one more year. But the thing is, Angel actually has a transfer agreement with the Swedish leagues, which allows, you know, a team could pay to buy this player out of his league so that he can sign an ELC. You know, great hands, really high hockey IQ, great scanning. his defense is a little bit better than Meachkovs. He would be a lot of fun to have on the Penguins. And, you know, he can play, you know, center, left wing, whichever.

Starting point is 00:07:15 Honestly, you know, he, he would be a great fit for this team. And then another one that I have circled, Will Smith, another very, very strong player, all around offensive threat play center for the U.S. national teams development program. was very, very good this season, played 60 games, 51 goals, 127 points in 60 games. 127 points. That is just ridiculous numbers. And then played, you know, in the juniors this season, played 20 games, 15 goals, 42 points,

Starting point is 00:07:54 played on the U-18 for the World Junior Championships, seven games, nine goals, 20 points. Last season played on the national under 18 team, had 27 points, 28 games. he is the real deal, though he's already committed to playing at Boston College for next season. So I don't think the Penguins would get him right away. But, you know, I think maybe in another year or two after that, I think they could, yeah, it would be shorter than someone like

Starting point is 00:08:23 Meechkov in Russia, who's under contract for a few more years. But very good shot, good hands, great playmaking, really strong skating, his defensive ability is also a bit better. You know, he's also very deceptive when the puck is on his stick. And again, he, like all the other prospects I have just discussed, he would be the penguin's best prospect in this system by a mile, probably will have been their best forward prospect since what, Afghani Malkin, to be honest, Sid, you know,

Starting point is 00:08:52 because the penguins really haven't been able to draft a lot of strong forward prospects or in the center because they're always trading for them. You know, you look on this team right now, Jake Ensel, sure, you know, he was a mid-round pick, but, you know, this wasn't a top five pick, and no one was expecting him to be as good as he's been. So, you know, he would instantly become the best prospect in this system. You know, and again, he's already playing for Boston College next season

Starting point is 00:09:18 with his teammate, Ryan Leonard. He also plays for the U.S. national development team, and I'll get to him now as well. You know, this year, 51 goals, 94 points, and 57 games, 11 goals, 20 points and 17 games for juniors. Again, he'll be playing Boston College for next season. Also played on the U.S. National Under 17 team and the under 18 team. Did play in the World Junior Championships, had five goals, six points in the six games.

Starting point is 00:09:45 You also know what you're getting with him. Both would be really, really sound picks for the Penguins. So those are the players that I'm really looking at in terms of who could be available at the number four, number five overall pick. again, is it likely that the penguins get this pick? No. But I wanted to go over some players who would be options for them if they do because they would be set up to get a pure franchise type player toward the end of the contending window of Sidney Croser, Gany, Malk, and Chris saying, and they could also get someone in here who could theoretically play on an ELC so the Penguins can save some salary cap space that way. That's where we wanted to get into for this segment.

Starting point is 00:10:26 So, again, my draft scouting profiles, they're not the best. You know, I'm not Cam Robinson over here. I'm not Bob McKenzie. I'm not some of these guys from the elite prospects and the hockey writers. But, you know, I still like to dabble into it as much as I can and try to give you guys, you know, as good of a scouting report as I can. If you want to read more in depth about these players and get even better scouting reports than me, and trust me, there are plenty more out there.

Starting point is 00:10:54 You can go to any of those websites, elite prospects. The dollar hockey is very good with hers. Bob McKenzie's list, so much more. So again, those are the ones that I'm really looking at in terms of the number four, number five overall pick. And again, I would not trade that pick if they got it. I would only trade the pick if they stay at number 14, even number 13. You know, those middling picks, you just don't know what you're going to get

Starting point is 00:11:20 from any of those players. I would very much look to trade that pick. And I wouldn't just dump it for the sake of dumping it. that's just not what I'm a part of here. I would look to, you know, shop it for someone who can make an impact at the NHL level, whether it's a forward to maybe replace Jason Zucker a few walks, whether it's a defenseman to play with Crystal Tang or Jeff Petrie, or whether it's to get a goaltender like Jeremy Swam and Connor Helbuck, UC Sorrows,

Starting point is 00:11:49 someone like that, someone who can make a true difference for this team. I don't want to do something like Lou Lamarillo did this past season where he traded the number 13th overall pick for Alexander Romanov. I mean, no disrespect to Alexander Romanov. I think he's a fine player. Is he worth trading a top 15 pick for? No, because I don't think he's a top pairing guy or even a second pairing guy. That's just my opinion, though.

Starting point is 00:12:12 So I just wouldn't do it for something like that, and especially wouldn't do what Chindruther did when he traded that late first-round pick for Ryan Reeves. That was just very clueless, in my opinion. So, draft lottery tonight, 8 p.m. quarter roll out if the penguins move up, nine or ten spots. Remember, penguins can only move up to number four, a team in their position. You can only move up 10 draft spots. You cannot move up any more than that. So the only team outside the top 10 has a shot at getting

Starting point is 00:12:40 the number one overall pick is the team that has the number 11, or that has projected odds to be the number 11 overall pick right now. So that does it for this first segment, getting into the draft lottery. Coming up in the second segment, we're going to continue our season reviews. And yes, we are going to discuss Macau-Gandlin because he played on the third line before we get to our four-finers like Josh Harchwald and Ryan Paling. I'm not going to do some of the other guys like Nick Benino because he only played one game or Dimitri Kulokov because he didn't really play much either. But a Newlander did play over 20 games, so I think that's worthy of a small season review. So that's coming up after this commercial break. But before we dig into that, we do have to discuss Indy.

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Starting point is 00:14:38 And, of course, thank you so much for making this your first list in the day where you're free and available on all platforms. So continuing our season of views today. Another one of the third liners, my Kyle Gremlin came over during the trade deadline, right before the trade deadline, I should say, for a second round pick. That was Ron Hextall's last of many blunders. with the organization, played 21 games for the Penguins this season, and 242 minutes at 5-on-5.

Starting point is 00:15:04 When he was on the ice, the Penguins had 51% of the shot attempts. They had 53% of the actual goals for, expected goals share of 57.9%. Also, 60% of the scoring chances, 57% of the high danger chances, only 37% of the high-danger goals so. Funny enough, his underwings are pretty good. that's the thing that's saving grace a little bit. But then when you look at his counting stats, one goal in those 21 games,

Starting point is 00:15:33 a garbage time goal, I may add, it was brutal. He never really fit in here. And again, I'm saying this as someone who loves digging into the numbers. I love going on natural statuary to see if, you know,

Starting point is 00:15:48 the numbers back up my claims. And this is honestly a very situation where the numbers, they'd go against what I saw a little bit because I saw someone who was really not engaged, especially on the forecheck, someone who, you know, he was lied for his passing ability. I never really saw it that much. His defensive impact is obviously not good

Starting point is 00:16:06 if you go to Jayfresh's player stat card. He ranked in the one or two percentile in terms of even strength defense, which is horrendous. His shot was not there. He didn't really do much of anything. He was just kind of there in a way. And, you know, I don't know why Ron Hextall thought it was a good idea to acquire him.

Starting point is 00:16:31 I mean, we saw Josh Yewey report on Twitter that it was Chris Pryor that actually, you know, told him to go out and get Gland. The Penguins are going to have no choice, I think, in this matter, when it comes to getting his contract off this team. People will say, well, Hunter, you can pay a first-round pick to get out of that contract. Why would you want to pay a first-round pick to get out of that contract when you can trade that? pick for someone who can actually help you, whether it's a younger player forward defense or a goaltender. I'm not paying a first-time pick to do that. Buyout stink. I understand that. But I think the penguins really have no choice in the matter here when it comes to buying them out because they will be saving $4 million against the salary cap for this next season.

Starting point is 00:17:19 that's very, very good. And I mean very good. And of course, as I am recording this, 17, 18 minutes, and my dog decided to go crazy downstairs because I am sure they are seeing someone walk by with a dog. They cannot stand that at all. But again, 4 million solid tax space. That gets you, a third line center maybe,

Starting point is 00:17:44 another top four defenseman, maybe a new goaltender. that's what you've got to be building towards when it comes to the team next season. That money is huge for this team. And he just can't be on this team next season. I also don't think he even fits Mike Sullivan's system. And that comes back to another point that I've been thinking about or something that I've been thinking about. Did Ron Hectoroll and Chris Pryor even consult Mike Sullivan on that trade?

Starting point is 00:18:16 Serious question. Did they even consult him? Because when I look at Sullivan's system, and it really, when it comes down to it, he wants people who force it aggressively, who shoot the puck at a decent rate, you work at low to high, I don't think Granlin does any of that. And again, he was lauded as this great passer. I never saw it except maybe in that first game against the lightning. He just didn't do enough during his tenure here and, you know, didn't even crack 10 points in those 20 games. wasn't even a half a point per game player.

Starting point is 00:18:52 A buyout, again, they stink. You have to pay this player four million for the net. Not four million, excuse me. You have to pay this player for the next four years, not four million, God forbid. But I think it's something you have to do. And you ever after this year, you get $3 million in cap space for the next season. And after that, you get about, I think it's $1.something million for a cap space. It's a little low year.

Starting point is 00:19:19 The cap that this year is low. below a million. It jumps up to 1.8 for the final two years, but it's something that you have to live with. And I think this is an easy slam dunk, in my opinion, you know, overall 10-year-old, I'll give Granland. I probably get, it's hard for me to give him an F because I'm going to have no choice to because he wasn't good.

Starting point is 00:19:42 I'm mainly going to give Hextoncris prior enough for this because there was no reason to even trade for him. I would have rather they traded for J.T. Miller and be stuck with that. then trading for Grandin, who just was never a fit. And I understand that he was probably under a lot of pressure to make this deal because the Penguins were in a massive fight for their lives trying to get into the playoffs. But you just cannot make that deal, especially when there are two years left on it at $5 million.

Starting point is 00:20:10 He didn't even ask Nashville to retain salary. What was he doing? just total cluelessness from this front office. So that wraps up this segment going into my Kyle Grandland season review. Later on this week, we're going to get into the fourth line, which Josh Archibald, Ryan Paling. We'll get into some of those other players who played here than before we get into the defensemen with their season reviews.

Starting point is 00:20:39 Coming up to end the show, we're going to get into the playoff action from Sunday and why Kyle Dubis might be getting a call for and friendly sports. later this week and why he does and doesn't make sense in a way for this GM job here in Pittsburgh. But before we get into that, if you're looking for a delicious snack but don't want all the sugar and calories, then you need the best tasting protein par ever. And that's Bill. You have to try this. If you're like me and you want to make healthier snack choices but don't want to compromise on taste, I've got just a thing for you. Bill bars and Bill Pops. Bill Purs are healthy and taste amazing. Seriously, they taste so amazing. You won't think they're good for you. You have to try this.

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Starting point is 00:21:41 But now you can get them at Walmart or Sam's Club and still get your other specialty flavors. You can go up, take a four-bar box of cookies and clean, double chocolate or coconut puff. And if you're close to the same club, you can go there as well. You can thank me later when it comes to that. All right, I'm back to him this episode of the Lockdown Penguins Podcast. I am your host, Honour Hodes. Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes, follow the shows Twitter at Ellen Show Penguins. And, of course, thank you all so much for making this your first list in the day.

Starting point is 00:22:10 We're free and available on all platforms. So let's jump into this final segment for the show, and that's the playoff recap from Sunday. You know, two really crappy games. The Devils absolutely take the Hurricanes to the Woodshed. They are down down two games to one. The Devils always decide to play their best hockey when they're down O2. I don't know what it is, but they kicked a lot of butt in that game on Sunday afternoon.

Starting point is 00:22:37 Luke Hughes made his debut, had a couple points. Jack Hughes, five-point day for him. He was electric. The Hurricanes, it's funny. They scored three short-handed goals. Usually when you allow three short-handed goals, you should lose. But that's what happens when Jack Hughes goes off for five points in the devil's score. Seven total goals.

Starting point is 00:22:55 Really nice game from them. V.J. Pancha played well. And then the Maple Leafs, they go down 3-0 to the Florida Panthers. And all of that good vibes from the first round, you win your first series in 19 years. Basically just a giant wet. fart noise. As Don Wuches, who had the athletic said on Twitter last night, 19 years for this, L.O.L.

Starting point is 00:23:23 Yup. You waited 19 years to beat the lightning. And now you're down 3-0, and you're trying to become only the 15 in NHL history to come back from our 3-0-0-0-0-7. The last team that did it, remember, Flyers came back to beat the Bruins over a decade ago.

Starting point is 00:23:45 Yep, the last team to overcome that was the Flyers. And the Flyers were down 3-0 in that game 7, and they came back to win it. Three-nothing in the series, going into game 7, the Bruins went up 3-0. They blew that too. Yep. I seem to do it. Before that, only three other teams have done it. It's just crazy to think about.

Starting point is 00:24:09 But, you know, we all know the Kyle Dubus rumors are about to start up. I think he would obviously be a fine hire here. He has shown an ability to build winning teams in Toronto. The one thing that scares me, though, the goal-tending. Because it's funny, you look at the teams that he's helped build. And obviously, he didn't, he was there, you know, when they drafted Matthews and they got martyr and Nylander and they signed John Tavaris. But, you know, he orchestrated the trade for Ryan O'Reilly.

Starting point is 00:24:41 They have Morgan Riley in the system. Obviously, again, they orchestrated trade for O'Reilly. I know I just repeat myself, but bear with me here. They got Mark Diodano via trade. But the goaltending, I'll have to turflet, they got him in a trade. The goaltending, though, he went into this season. If Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray as his two starting goaltenders, that's a little bit of a red flag for me, people.

Starting point is 00:25:11 Right now, Samsonov is hurt. Matt Murray. He says he's healthy enough to play, but if Samsonov is not able to start game four, I think they're going to go with Joseph Wolle, who's their third stringer. And, you know, I compared him to Louis Doming last night. I apologize for that because he has much better numbers than Doming.

Starting point is 00:25:27 He's their third stringer, but I don't know how long it's going to stay that way. But it was just a very risky proposition, and you're seeing why it was risky right now, even though they won around. know, Samsonoff, you know, he's been banged up in his career. He's also been a consistent. He's been pretty decent in these playoffs, though, but he had to stay healthy.

Starting point is 00:25:49 Right now, he's not. I don't know if he's going to play on Wednesday. Matt Murray, he was the third-string goal. He had to go down to back up last night. He says he's healthy, but I don't know if he's going to play. He's been hurt, you know, for much of this season. It's tough. You know, that's the one thing I would be concerned about if Dubas was the higher here

Starting point is 00:26:05 would be the goal attending. You know, would he be a. able to bring in someone, you know, that's better than Tristanjari, and would he be able to really just overhaul the position that I think, I think it truly needs. You know, I saw someone say yesterday on Twitter that he would maybe want to bring in his own coach. I disagree with that because I think the family sports group thinks so highly of Mike Sullivan that he's going to stay no matter what. Could you just want to bring in his own guy at some point?

Starting point is 00:26:37 Yes. but I think I think Dubis and Sally would get along just fine but again there are also pros he's shown an ability to to build a Stanley Cup contending team year after year

Starting point is 00:26:51 he has the core in place he's gotten them some good help injured Dono and some of those other players that I mentioned you can say that some of his depth moves have been a bit weird at times like you know trading for Sam Lafferty you know, signing

Starting point is 00:27:08 Ashton Rays I thought was not bad. But I mean, David Kampth is pretty decent. He had a good game for game three. And of course, my dogs at the end of the show he would want to start barking again. But he has shown a history of some solid depth signings as the Maple Leafs manager. And he's usually built pretty decent

Starting point is 00:27:27 defensive groups as well. Remember he orchestrated the trade for Jake Muzin at a trade deadline a few years ago from L.A. No. when he goes after players, they are usually good and have strong analytics. But again, that doesn't mean that he's prone to always going after this type of players. He did sign Wayne Simmons after all for this season, someone who I think is cooked at this point in his career.

Starting point is 00:27:49 He has no problem going after that sort of same paper member. Zach Bogosian, I believe, was also there for a time. So, you know, he's definitely gone after some players who are, not super good. He did trade Rasmus Sandine to Washington for Eric Gustafson. That was a weird move. I would have just kept Sandine because I think he's the better player.

Starting point is 00:28:14 So there are some misses with him, but I do think there are more hits overall compared to misses, and he would be an upgrade over Ron Hectorstall. And at the end of the day, that's probably good enough for me. Again, not my top choice, but I understand why the Fenway Sports Group

Starting point is 00:28:31 would go after him because of their use of analytics. and someone who has had success. I understand some of the fanbase is not going to be on worth it because he's only won one playoff series since getting the full-time gig. But he has shown the ability to build those winning teams. And I don't think it's truly his fault, you know, I don't want to say this. I don't think it's truly his fault that his teams have come up short. You have to put some blame for the people on the ice.

Starting point is 00:29:02 I also will say he does not have the full final say on matters. That, my friends, is Brandon Chanahan. And I think that's another reason why this could be enticing to him is because the Fenway's works we could offer him total control of the Hockey Operations Department. So that's something I think could really entice him once he becomes a free agent. Assuming the Leaps do lose this week, and I think they will now that they're down to Rio. I think within five or ten minutes, the family sports group will call

Starting point is 00:29:35 and ask to interview him because he's a free agent. They won't have to go ask permission or anything like that. But that does it for this episode. Well, I will want to say Seattle. They go two games to one on Dallas. Cracken just continue to kick so much. But they have, I believe the number is 16 different goal scores in the playoffs now.

Starting point is 00:29:53 16. Like, should even be possible. That just goes to show how deep they are. But that will do it for this episode of the Walkdown Penguins podcast. Thank you all so much for listening slash watching. I'll be back with another episode for you all on Tuesday. We'll see how the draft lottery results are, how tonight's game is between the knights and the Oilers.

Starting point is 00:30:16 And we'll talk a whole bunch of other things relating to the Penguins as well. So thank you all so much for listening to class watching. Really appreciate it. I'll be back with another episode for you all on Tuesday.

Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - How much will social media burn if the Pittsburgh Penguins get a top 5 pick in the draft?

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