Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - How much would you pay for Tomas Hertl?

Episode Date: September 1, 2021

Is that some trade rumors as I hear? There's been some Tomas Hertl trade chatter throughout the day on Tuesday and Hunter touches on it with how this would be a slam dunk acquisition for the Penguins. As always, the trick is...what would the Penguins have to give up, and could they make it work? He puts together some monstrous trade proposals for Hertl as they'd be worth it with how the team is gunning for another championship to end the Sid & Geno era. Before that though, Hunter gets into the Penguins Fan Survey results that came out today and how his votes compared to some of the others. He then dissects the biggest eye-opener which was how a lot of fans would prefer to keep Matheson's contract over Pettersson. Why is that? Does Matheson get a pass for some things because he's only been here for a year? Or do fans not like Pettersson due to him not being "flashy?" Finally, Hunter ends the show with some Bet Online stuff as the Penguins points odd were released for this season. Should you bet the over or under?Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Your Locked-on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Your team every day. Hey, everyone, welcome to this Tuesday evening episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. You're not to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow this show's Twitter at L.O underscore Penguins.

Today's episode is brought to you by rockado.com. Amazing selection. Reliable of prices. All the parts are you cross. or whatever need. Visit rockado.com and tell them locked on sent you. So we do have a couple big things to talk about in today's episode. One of them being part two of that big Penguins fan poll that the athletic did. Sean Gentilly came out

the article this morning. I have a tweet about one of the things in there that was just ridiculous, I think, in my opinion. So we're going to go through that in the first segment. And in the second segment, there were some rumors that Tomas Hurtle once out of San Jose. and he is, you know, very underrated, I think, throughout the league. I'm going to touch on that from a penguin's perspective and just basically put, you know, one or two trade packages together that I think the penguins could potentially do. I just don't think Doug Wilson is a very good GM.

Now, is this probably going to happen? No. Is it possible? Sure. Is it improbable? I guess I would say, yeah. You know, it's probably not going to happen. But, hey, you know, we're at the end of August, I guess almost September now.

So it wouldn't really be the end of the off season if we weren't just, you know, stringing together some BS for the sake of it. And just, I mean that with Penguins sort of because, you know, we always do this when any good player becomes available. But starting off with the Penguins fan survey that Sean Gentile came out with today, part two, at least, from the fans. The first question was, how confident are you that the Penguins' current group of forwards when Healthy King compete against elite teams? Most of the people said around 4 out of 5, so 43.1%. That was what I voted for as well. I think the forward depth, I've talked about this numerous times, if this is your first episode listening,

I think the depth is good. Is it as good as last year's team? No, but I think it's still one of the more deeper teams that the Sin and Geno era has had. Question two, if Cindy Crosby at his peak was a 10, how would you rate him going into the season? Most of the votes were about an 8 out of time. 10. I think that's honestly where he is now. I mean, he's definitely not a 10. I mean,

this is not 2010, 2011, even 2012 peak Sydney Crosby. There was a lot of votes for a 7. That 30% of the votes. But, you know, again, most of the votes went for an 8 out of 10, 48.7%. 13% said a 9. I guess I could see an argument for that. But I still think he, you know, he's 80%, I think, of what he was about a decade ago. Now, here. Here's, he's 80%. I think, of what he was about a decade ago. Now here's question three. This was this was a bit interesting. So the question was what are your expectations for Jake Gensel? 2000 responses. 56% of the people said consistent first liner. I was in the camp of the second biggest one, which is 40 goal pace. 34.6% of the voters had that. I 100% think that he can have another 40 goal season for the penguins this year. I don't know why some people said trade bait 9.2%. You're just stopped talking about the penguins if you put

trade bait for Jake Gensel. But, you know, we've seen him score 40 before. Remember the season that he had to actually, it was just not this past season, but the season before that, before the pause, he was on pace to score 40 goals again before he really messed up his shoulder. And, you know, he was, I guess, close again this year. But, you know, with, well, I shouldn't say he was close again this year just because it was only 56 games.

But the dude still had 23 goals in those 56 games. if you do another 82 game season, this player is still 26 years old. If you do another 82 game season, I think that he will crack 40. And, of course, he also plays online with Cindy Crosby. So that also really helps him too. But even just looking past that, he's still an elite playmaker in his own right. And I think one of the five best pure goal scores in the league. You know, I said that during this past season.

I'm going to stick with that. There are not five goal scores in this league, I think. that are better than him with how quick his release is. You give him the smallest inch of time and space. He makes you pay every step of the way. So question four, which projected bottom six winger is the best bet to play his way into a larger role? This actually split the fan base up a little bit as well,

but 48% of the viewers voted for Brock McGahn. That was, I think, my vote as well, though I did give a lot of consideration to Danton Hinen because, you know, I've talked about this on one of my episodes before that I think he could have a really good season similar to what he did in Boston when he was a half a point per game player. But with what they signed, Brock, and how good he was offensively this past year, coupled with usually how good defensively he is, this was a no-brainer. They're going to start him out, I would guess, on the third line with Jeff Carter. But if Faggeny Malkin has to miss a lot more time than it's expected, I could see him definitely playing his way into a top six role.

It's kind of weird that Evan Rodriguez had more votes than Danton Hinen. I don't really understand that. And then Ashton Reese was the next one at 21%. That's interesting to me as well. I always just see him as a bottom six winger. I really think if he plays his way into a larger role, it's just going to be because the team is really banged up. I just don't really see him playing in the top six this season.

I've seen some couple people throw that around, but I just, in my opinion, I don't see it. Question five, Brian Ross's contract aspires out of the season. How much would you be willing to pay him annually on his new deal? Most of the people said five to five and a half million. That was where I fell. The next most said 5.6 to 6 million. If you can get him for five to five and a half, you do that every step of the way.

The biggest thing, though, with him is term. Do you want to go six to seven years? Probably not. I think you're looking at a four to five year deal. If he wants more years and he wants more term, you walk away and you think. figure something out during the next all season. It would just be really foolish to sign him to more than a four to five year term

with more than five to five and a half million. I think if you're paying $5.6 to $6 million for long term for him, that's just not going to play out. The way that I think some people think it would, you know, just look what happened with Patrick Hornquist and then Jim Rutherford just kind of screwed with himself a little bit. The other question with Russ doesn't have a new contract by the deadline should the penguins trade him.

53% of the people say yes 46% of people say no This one is interesting too Because if the team is still in contention Which they probably will be They're not going to trade Brian Rust So again this was definitely one that is a bit weird Now if the team is out of the playoffs

By the dead line he doesn't have a new contract Yes then you definitely trade him See what kind of haul you could get Because I think the Penguins could get Quite the package back Quorax I think he would be one of the best rentals available at the deadline where Hextel could kind of be in a bidding war. I don't see that happening because they're still all in right now, but wanted to share that

one as well. Going down a little bit more, let me just see, after Chris Lange and Brian Dumlin, who will be the Penguins best defenseman next season, 57% of you made the right choice with John Marino. 24% of you said Mike Matheson, I don't really understand that because I think Marcus Pedersen is better than him. P.O. Joseph has the ability to be better than him. it's just the love of fear with Mike Matheson with this fan base is definitely a bit weird and

I come to Question 12 now which is what I'm going to be spending the remainder of this segment talking about So the question was if you had to keep either Mike Matheson or Marcus Pedersen for the duration of their contracts Who would it be? Remember everyone Pedersen is signed for only at just a few more years at 4.09 million Like 4.09 million Matheson is signed for five more years at around 4.8.9 million Almost 68% of the voters said they would rather have Mike Matheson for the remainder of his contract over Marcus Pedersen. I just, I don't understand the logic with the Penguins fan base when it comes to Mike Matheson. And just honestly still dumping over Marcus Pedersen. And I tweeted this out on my personal Twitter as well.

I mean, there's so many people that hate Marcus Pedersen for being soft, not being good in front of the net. quotation marks or behind the net. But I guess people did not realize how bad Matheson was defensively last year. And the funny thing is, as some people were talking about in my mentions, you know, people are giving Matheson so much praise, but yet when Latang does something bad like Matheson does, they'll dump on over him, but give Matheson a pass just because I think he's only been here for a year or something.

And Dan Hopper, who is a great follow on Penguin's Souter, honestly, probably something not the best. You know, these polls are usually more rational. but I guess some of this consisted of the same people saying that Pedersen is soft and that he's not physical and he doesn't provide a lot of offense and I also think that people are just really overvaluing, you know, Matheson's really good play and that was just that coast to coast goal against the Bruins. And, you know, we all know what we're going to get in Pedersen. He's a defensive first player. He's good at handling the puck in his own zone. He's good at zone exits,

zone entries even. He's obviously not going to wow you with a lot of coast to coast moves and not be super flashy in the offensive zone. But he's steady year after year. But apparently that's not good enough for a lot of people in his fan base and they want to see a full chaos player, Mike Matheson,

you know, just be, again, just total bonkers on a nightly basis. Just because you never know what you're going to get when it comes to Matheson. I personally would rather have Pedersen in his contract over Matheson. I mean, if you can get someone to take Matheson's contract. You do that any day of the week. I mean, again, that's five years, $4.875 million compared to 4.025 for Pedersen for four more years. And again, I'm not

going to deny that Matheson brings more offensively, but I mean, are we really going to say that that offsets the really bad term and the cap expense? I mean, I guess some of the voters seem to think so, but I 100% disagree with that. And I also think this has been a thing with the fan base going back so many years. You know, as CK and my mention said this, you know, people hated Matt Niskin in his first two years here, Paul Martin and McCallick as well. I guess fans just don't like smart second pairing defenders so they don't hit in score much, excuse me, and I think he's 100% right. I mean, Paul Martin great defensively. I mean, he was good on the top pair, but, you know, on a contending team, you would rather have him on your second pair. Same with McCallick. But I guess,

you know, fans, again, they just don't like him because he didn't hate a lot. He didn't put up a lot flashy offensive numbers, but they were still good, effective players who didn't drag the team down on a nightly basis. So I think it's just more weird than anything that so many people in the fan base seem to be hyping up Mike Matheson, and they'll give him a pass for stuff that Latang fails out because he's only been here for one year, but again, if Latang makes that same dumb mistake, they'll just pile on him and tell everyone on social media that they should get rid of him and that he's the worst defenseman to ever play for this team. So it's definitely a bit weird.

I wanted to share those thoughts on that question. One of the next ones is POJ, ready to be a significant contributor. 85% of you say yes, I voted for that as well. And then this was the one that I think that caught a couple, some people, it was kind of split down the middle. What is the biggest concern going into next season? About close to half of the voters said age, 47.5%, 34.3% said size. I'm sorry.

but I don't give a rat's ass about the size of this team going into 2021. I think the age plays a lot more of a role than how big this team is. And, you know, the goaltending is not even on this pie chart. I mean, the next two are power play and penalty kill. But I guess Sean does say after that, like, they left the goaltending off for obvious reasons because I think they think that everyone knows that that's the biggest concern. But after that, I mean, age is right. but I don't understand how people think size is one of the biggest concerns going to the next season.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are not even one of the biggest teams in the league, and they just went back to back. The Penguins did the same thing right before Tampa did. So it really doesn't make a difference with how big your team is. But I just wanted to go through some of these questions and share my thoughts and what I voted for, while also kind of disagreeing with a large portion of the fan base when it comes to Mike Matheson versus Marcus Peders. But coming up in the next segment, we are going to touch on from Tomas Hurtle Trade Talk and what packages could be thrown at Doug Wilson and the San Jose Sharks if they choose to trade him, of course. But first, we do have to touch on Rock Auto.

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ever again. And the best part, there's no annual contract that you need to sign. So get rid of the clutter and the confusion and you get your TV together with DirecTV shame. You can learn more at directtv.com. That is directtv.com compatible device required. Content varies by package. All right, so welcome back to this episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow the show's Twitter at L.O. and Squared Penguin. So there's been a lot of rumors around the league, well, I guess today, around the league about Thomas Hurtle and that, you know, he could be on his way out because it sounds like he doesn't like how the sharks are handling the Evander Cain situation.

That is just a huge mess with what's going on with him. That guy is just a walking bad story every single year. He has so much baggage on him. It's dragging outside the door, I think, at this point, but he is ridiculously underrated, and I think this would really put the penguins I don't want to say over the top, but it would put them clearly in the same stratosphere as some of the other contenders around the league, such as Vegas, Tampa Bay, Boston, maybe Carolina, and of course, you know, there's so many more. I think it would make the team just as deep as last year's team and if you go to hockey biz and look

at what he's done with his isolated impacts for even strength offense plus 0.4 expected goals for per 60 plus 16% in the parentheses. There is so much red in all of the high danger areas. It's just, it honestly cannot

get more red when it comes to how good he is in the offensive zone. Oh yeah, the other best part, he's just as good defensively. Minus. 0.26% expected goals. against for 60. That is minus 10%. There is a whole clutter of blue right in front of the opposing net, which is exactly what you want to see when that player is on the ice. If you go to J. Fresh's stuff, his projected wins above replacement, 92%, even strength offense, 91%, even strength defense,

92%. PK, 70%, finishing ability, 85%. Goals per 60, 87%, primary assist per 60, 89%. Power play percentage 66%. This player, again, is one of the more underrated players in the league. And if we go to his counting stats with what he has done on some really bad Sharks teams as well, especially the last couple of years, they have just not been good. You know, 2019, 20, when the Sharks were not going to make the playoffs, 16 goals, 36 points in 48 games. Last year, in 50 games, before he got hurt a little bit. 19 goals, 43 points in the 50 games. So he was almost a point per game player this past season. The years before that in 2019, had his only 35 goal season, had 74 points in 77 games.

So the last couple of years, you know, two of the last three years, excuse me, he's been almost a point per game player. And yes, I understand that he is going to cost a whole lot on a trade. He'll probably want to go to a contending team. But, you know, that's the kind of player that you give up a lot of assets for, especially in a situation where you're trying to win one more Stanley Cup to send Sid and Gino out with four instead of three. If you look at Andy and Rono's stuff with their account,

Hockey stat CZ on Twitter. 95th percentile for offense, 92nd percentile for scoring, 85th percentile for passing, 84th percentile for zone denials, 96 percentile for play driving, 72nd percentile for chances, shot contribution, 69 percent of course, which is nice.

High danger assist, 60 percentile. He is just ridiculously good, and he's always outchancing the opposition any time that he is on the ice. in terms of trade packages, I've been thinking about this a little bit today. I would move anyone on this roster that is not Cindy Crosby, Fagney Malkin, Chris LaTang, John Marino, Brian Dumlin, or Jake Gensel to get Tomas Hurtle.

I think anyone else on this roster is fair game. Yeah, even Jeff Carter. And I love Jeff Carter so much with what he did last year. But yes, I would even move him in that deal. A player like this does not become available very often. I think with a couple of packages that I've thought of, obviously, first round pick, one of the top prospects being Sam Puan, Nathan Legerry, first round pick. So to start, San Puan, first round pick.

And I'm going to go a little off the rails here. And I'm going to say Casperi Kappan. I think it's probably a bit of a start to a package. I think San Jose would want more. that's still a hefty price going back the other way, especially when it comes to Capitan because he was one of the Penguins' best goal scores this past year. But Hurdle was one of the best two-way centers in the league. He makes $5.6 million for this last season.

And Caponin's contract also expires after this season. So, you know, you're kind of just switching two players, but, you know, one of them, I think is a lot better than the other one. I think another package that I've thought of, San Poulin, Nathan Legerrie, a first-round pick and maybe P.O. Joseph to go get Tomas Hurtle. Maybe that's a bit much of an overpay. But again, I mean, this is an opportunity of a lifetime to go get a fourth Stanley Cup for Sid and Gino. And I absolutely love P.O. And I think he's going to be a really good player for a long time. But this is Tomas freaking hurdle that we're talking about here. Another one that I thought of.

Maybe you move one of the goalie prospects, your first round pick, Kisbury Kappen, and another piece to get him. I could honestly see it being like that Derek Bressard deal when he came over from Ottawa where the penguin traded Philip Gustafson, believe it was Ian Cole, and I think it was their first round pick in that draft that year as well. But to just sum this all up, it would be a no-brainer for the penguins to show their interest and get him, of course, but do I think this is going to happen? No. I mean, I just don't know if they're going to have the salary cap space to do it. Sure, they could put Evgeny Malkon on LTIR and kind of just go. full Tampa Bay with it like they did with Nikita Kutra, but we also still have no big update

with Gino. The only update that we've had with him is that he's going to miss training camp and maybe a bit to start the season, but, you know, I think Dom was in my mentions today telling me that he may miss half the season. I have not seen that reported at all, but I guess we're going to have to see when it comes to that. But again, everyone, you know, Hurtle just makes so much sense for this team, especially down the middle because, you know, not having Gino there for potentially.

at least a quarter to maybe a third or even. A half of the season as Dom was saying in my mentions, that could be a major problem for Pittsburgh, but if they were able to get Hurtle, that would shore up their center depth very nicely. And if you can run

center depth when everyone's healthy of Sid, Gino, Thomas Hurtle, and Teddy Bluger, and you can maybe have Jeff Carter on the wing, or you can go Jeff Carter down the middle of Fourth Line Center and have Blugar on the wing. I mean, good luck to a lot of teams around the league stopping that.

But those are just my thoughts on the hurdle situation. Tell me what you all think about some of the packages that I came up with. Was I too outlandish with some of those? Were they too big of overpayments or were they just right? Let me know on the Lockdown Penguins' Twitter account at L.O. underscore Penguins or my Twitter account at Hunter Hodes. Coming up in the next episode, we are going to touch on a couple other things that I saw today. One of them being bet on line releasing their point odds, the over under, for all NHL teams.

this season and the Penguins, they're a bit below 100, and I'm going to talk about what I would do if I were you with just betting on that going into this season. But before we do that, it's time to talk about betonline.ag. It's that time of year again, and all eyes are now turning to football as teams are back on the gridiron to start the football season. As always, Ben-on-Line is your number one spot for all the pro-in-college football action this season. Get all updated odds, props and contests, including online's biggest half-million dollar and a mega contests and the world's largest $200,000 NFL Survivor Contest open now at that online. Head to the website or use a mobile device to sign up today to receive your 100% welcome bonus.

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Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow this show is Twitter at L.O. underscore Penguins. So as I was talking about before we went to our commercial break, Betel line released their point totals going into this season, and the Pittsburgh Penguins are at 98.5 if my Mac ever wants to load. Okay, we finally got it. So the Penguins over under is 98.5. In my opinion, you all, I would smash the over on that.

I ended up tweeting that out, and I'll say this for a third time. That's when Dom came in my mentions and said that Gino might be out for half the year. I don't think it's going to be that long. I think at most it's going to be maybe a quarter to maybe 30% of the season. But even with that, I still think they can get over 98 points. I mean, remember this past season, everyone. This team was so banged up. And they were down, what?

Four to five top nine forwards. they still finished first in the East Division, which I thought was the toughest division in hockey, and that just speaks volumes to how great of a coach Mike Sullivan is. And oh, yeah, I mean, the goaltending, it hung around for that part. We obviously know what happened in the playoffs, but during those stretches, the goaltending was a lot better than it was during other parts of the season. So that's why I would hammer the over. The Penguins usually get over 100 points during a full 82 game regular season.

I think they're going to get top three in the Metro. So if I were you, I would take that to the bank, even if this team is really banged up. And, you know, history says they will be. I'd still do it just because of the job that Mike Sullivan does when this team gets hurt. It's always a next man up mentality. And, you know, for whatever reason, this team just plays much better hockey defensively, at least, while there are players banged up compared to when they're fully healthy. And again, you know, that's not to say that, you know, they don't play good when they're fully healthy.

Because I think they do. You know, the numbers are usually really. good when the team is healthy, but I have noticed that when the team is a bit banged up, they tend to play, I guess, more in a shell in the defensive zone, and they just, they'll play defense first instead of being, you know, more offense first when the team is fully rolling. But I think that will do it for today's episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. Again, I appreciate all of you listening to this one. We'll have another one of these tomorrow before I take my last off-season vacation.

This one will be out of the country. I don't know if I said that on my episode yesterday. I'm going to Cancun to spend my one-year anniversary with my lovely girlfriend. And then when I come back, we will be full steam ahead for the rest of the off-season. And then daily shows come back the week of September 20th, which is right around the time that Penguin's training camp starts back up. So we're almost there, everyone. You know, the off-season only has a few more weeks. Hopefully planning a couple more things for the off-season before we get back into full gear with training camp and preseason.

So keep sticking with me. And, you know, we'll be right at the season. before you know it. So thank you so much for listening to this one and we'll be back on Wednesday.