Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - How the Penguins and Dubas can WIN this rebuilding process

Episode Date: May 28, 2025

We've talked a lot about the Penguins being in transition, rebuilding, retooling, whatever, but what does success actually look like? Patrick opens the show discussing what the timeline could and should look like for Kyle Dubas and the Penguins to get out of this transitional period and back into not just the playoff picture, but Stanley Cup contention. Then, while pending UFA Mitch Marner hasn't been directly linked to the Penguins, it's pretty easy to see a connection between the two. However, despite the previous relationships and Marner's talents, the Penguins would be wise to say thanks, but no thanks. Finally, a quick update on the coaching search and how it appears to be down to three candidates, with one of them not looking like much of a fit. Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Monarch MoneyTake control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code LOCKEDONNHL at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year.Wonderful PistachiosGet snackin' and get crackin' with the snack that packs a protein punch. Visit WonderfulPistachios.com to learn more! FanDuelToday's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new FanDuel customers can get TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in Bonus Bets if your first FIVE DOLLAR bet wins!FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You can call it a rebuild. You can call it a team in transition. Whatever you'd like to call it for the Pittsburgh Penguins, the question has to be asked. What makes it successful? You're Locked On Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Your team every day.

Welcome in to another edition of the Locked On Penguins podcast. I'm your host Patrick Damp. You can follow me across all social. media platforms at Synonym 4 Wet running by myself today as our resident world traveler Hunter Hodes is on the road once again today. He's off to see yet another concert this time. I believe it's ACDC. So I hope he has an absolutely wonderful time doing that. But for now, it is just me. And thank you as always for tuning in and making us part of your daily routine because we are your team every day. Don't forget that we are free and available.

wherever you get your podcast as well as YouTube. And if you follow us on YouTube, go ahead and hit that notification button. That way you can be among the first to know when we drop our daily Monday through Friday episodes. So I set it in the cold open. And that is what I want to focus on to start the show. After we do that, we're going to talk about some potential Mitch Marner ideas for the Pittsburgh Penguins, as well as the latest in their coaching search as it continues to develop. but first, let's talk about where the Pittsburgh Penguins are right now as a franchise.

We have made the joke. We have referenced it on this show. You've seen it in writing. You've seen it on various podcasts and radio segments. But whether Kyle Dubus wants to say it or not, he continues to call it a team that is in transition. But we all know. The word that is not being used is exactly what this team is doing and that is a rebuild. So let's ask the question today. What does a successful transition, a successful rebuild, a successful retooling? What does that look like for the Pittsburgh Penguins? Because as we look at it today, it is May 28th as we release this episode. and we know for right now, this team is not going to tear it down to the studs. Kyle Dubas has said pretty bluntly, that's not part of his plan.

He is not going to go scorched earth on this. He's not going to trade away Sidney Crosby, Fgeny Malkin, Chris Latang, maybe Eric Carlson, maybe a couple of others, depending upon what happens over the next few years. but at the end of the day, we know that barring a request from the big names, they're likely to remain Pittsburgh Penguins for the remainder of their contracts, if not the remainder of their careers. So let's start here. The first few steps in this retool, this transition, whatever we're calling it, have been pretty good. Dubas's first couple of drafts, they've gone pretty well. You look at Harrison Brunick, who they got in the second round last year, despite not having

a first round pick, is looking like he was a steal in the second round. He looks like a player that probably should have been taken in the first 32 picks, was not, falls to the penguins. And I think we can expect to see him in an NHL jersey sooner rather than later. His first pick in his first draft in the first round, Braden Yeager, has now become Rutger McGroarkey, thanks to that trade. And as we saw to end the season, Rutger McGority very much looks like he is NHL ready. Howe, Tanner Howe, another player that is in the penguin system, had another very strong

junior season after overcoming injury, 46 points in 47 games. I do think there is a world where he might see some AHL time next year. So some of these younger names, some of these processes, some of these processes. that while they aren't blue chip prospects just yet, or I probably shouldn't say just yet, they aren't blue chip prospects, but they are very promising players are showing progress. They're looking like they're developing. They're looking like they have NHL futures ahead of them. So that is very promising in a good start to the rebuild.

On the other end of that, his trading has been very good. you date it all the way back to the Gensel deal. You get draft picks. You get young prospects. You get someone like Velae Covenin, who is right there with Rutger McGority as a player who looks like he is very much NHL ready. Is he a top prospect? Is he a blue chip prospect that will blossom into a superstar? Probably not.

But at the end of the day, you turned what was your best trade asset to do this into, a productive, potentially, NHL forward. Now, the other thing that I have brought up quite a bit when it comes to this retool, rebuild on the fly, call it whatever you'd like, is that Kyle Dubus very much is a student of the New England Patriots, Bill Belichick, Tom Brady era when it comes to asset management. And I know in Pittsburgh, you probably shouldn't bring up those names because of all the torture that we Steelers fans had to go through in that era. But if you look back at the way they did business, especially when they had Tom Brady and all of those great players and were winning all of those championships, yes, that's largely what won them their championships. But you obviously remember the fact that they would constantly cycle in and out these.

almost no-name players who would come in, they would have one to two, they would have one to two productive years, then they'd shuffle off and get paid somewhere else, and then all of a sudden another player comes up out of nowhere, plays really well, and then the cycle starts over again. You can kind of see that starting to be the mentality for the Penguins in this rebuild era, is they are getting a lot of draft picks, they have a ton of draft cap, over the next three years. They've got 30 picks. And while I don't see them using all 30 of them, some of them will be used to bolster the here and now to help them get younger prospects that may have fallen out of favor elsewhere. Rather than relying on one to two picks to make it work

and usher you into the next era, he's going to try to get four, five, maybe even six young players via the draft and you have more of a probability of those players turning into productive NHL players, then you do with just say the first overall pick or a top 10 pick and one or two picks throughout the rest of the draft and hoping that they hit. Instead, you're giving yourself more of a chance to get these players into NHL action and the more you have, the higher chance you have hopefully of them becoming NHL players. Now, the next steps that have to happen for this to be a successful retooling is obviously where we have to go from here.

You have to hope that these NHL, seemingly NHL ready guys, excuse me, your Magrortes, your covenins, then your Tristan Bros., Harrison Brunick, Owen Pickering, and a few others continue to develop the way they have been. A lot of those players, some of them already look like they're ready for NHL action. We saw that with Magrorty and Coivinen. We saw it for a while with Pickering. Hopefully, guy like Tristan Bros is the next step. And you have to hope that they continue developing the way they do.

They become productive NHL players. You can get them on mostly affordable deals. Or as you take the next steps in the next three to four years, they're either still on entry level deals or they're on affordable bridge contracts. Because the other thing you have to keep in mind with these players, is they aren't going to become more than likely. Obviously, things can change, things can happen. You can be surprised.

But I would say it's less likely that they become superstars that command massive contracts that take up a lot of your salary cap space. That takes you into the very next step of this. And should these players develop, should they become key NHL contributors, you also have, this is the part of it that you have to, to kind of put a little hope into it where you can't really plan for this, you have to hold out hope. And that's that Sydney Crosby remains a viable top six NHL center for the next three to four years. I'm of the mindset that he can continue to be that. It might not be 85, 90, 95, 100

points, but 70, 75, maybe even 80, then you're in a good spot because you can hopefully still have a very productive Sydney Crosby, young, hungry, speedy NHL players who can compliment him. And then when you get down the road in two to three years, the penguins are going to have a ton of salary cap space. Obviously, it's going to change depending upon what happens with some of these young players. Maybe there's some surprises. Maybe they sign a few guys. But as we record this right now, they're going to have $87 million in cap. space when Sidney Crosby's extension runs out, and then the year after his extension is over, they'll have more than $100 million in salary cap space.

And should this rebuild, retool on the fly go well and you find yourself back in contention, you are going to have a ton of money to potentially go big game hunting. Now, obviously, the answer that everybody wants to hear is that they'll be back in the Stanley Cup picture in the next half decade. We obviously don't know and can't make any predictions on that because so many things change. We obviously thought at the start of Crosby's career with all the names around him that they were going to become a modern day dynasty and win seemingly every year. They get the Stanley Cup in 2009. Then they don't win again.

They don't win the Stanley Cup again until 2016 and then 2017. And now here we are. But at the end of the day, to put a fine bow on this, the steps they have taken. taken to start are very solid. I like the direction that they're going. And for this to be successful, you have to hope a lot of these players develop into legitimate NHL contributors and that within the next five years,

you're back in the conversation as a team that can make the playoffs and maybe go on a run. Winning the Stanley Cup, obviously a lot has to go right. There's a lot of luck involved. But if in the next five years, they are back in the playoff picture and looking like a team that can make some noise, I would say that is a successful rebuild on top of having all of that salary

cap space. And speaking of that salary cap space, we've got to talk about pending UFA, Mitch, Marner, and the Toronto Maple Leafs. And if there is a connection to the Pittsburgh Penguins, we will talk about that when we come back right after this. But first, we've got to tell you about today's sponsor and that is wonderful pistachios. Looking for a snack that's both delicious and nutritious, crack into a good source of protein with wonderful pistachios. Wonderful pistachios, it's one of the highest protein nuts with each one out serving having six grams of protein, giving you over 10% of your daily value. Plus, they are packed with fiber and those better for you unsaturated fats to help keep you feeling fuller longer. I'm a huge fan of the no shells variety. These nuts are the

Grab and go snack for busy days, whether I'm at my office, whether I'm here at home or on the road, being able to grab that quick no-shell pistachio and get me that protein boost, it's absolutely perfect. But if you still want that satisfying crunch, the in-shell option is always a great decision for your day. So get snacking and get cracking with the snack that packs a protein punch. Visit wonderful pistachios to learn more. Welcome back to the Wednesday edition of Locked-on Penguins. I'm your host Patrick Damp running solo today as Hunter Hodes. As I said, our resident world traveler is once again on the road heading to yet another

concert. So hopefully he's having a blast and not listening to this because Hunter, it's a day off. Please enjoy it. Don't worry about the show. I can handle it. So let's get back into it. And let's talk about the biggest free agent on the market this summer. and that is Mitch Marner.

And if there is a connection between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Mitch Marner. Now, here's the thing. There haven't really been any reports from your typical national outsiders, excuse me, not outsiders. That would really kind of fly in the face of what they do. The insiders and some local reporters here in Pittsburgh. But a lot of fan speculation, a lot of fan chatter. and it's not difficult to make a connection between Mitch Marner and the Pittsburgh Penguins.

And that is because of President of Hockey Operations, Kyle Dubus. They have reportedly a great relationship from their time in Toronto, even though there were some very contentious contract negotiations. But a lot of that falls more on the agent, in my opinion. But let's start there. There is no denying that Mitch Marner is a genuinely, great, great hockey player. And for now, we're going to put his playoff performances to the side. You can't ignore them, but we will get back to those. But 383 points in the last four years, including

118 goals, you put all that together, even with the playoff, I guess we can say failures or his no-shows in the playoffs, which is very much a big problem for Marner. But that is going to cost you. you a lot of money, scoring nearly 400 points in four seasons. Goals and points come at a premium, and we understand that. So there are going to be teams that throw a lot of money this summer at Mitch Marner, considering that away from him, it's not a very strong UFA class. And with a rising salary cap, with a lot of teams needing elite talent, I look at Carolina who still, even though they're alive for now in the Eastern Conference final,

they need somebody like a Mitch Marner. They need a game breaker on that team. Very good team that lacks elite talent. And obviously you've got places like Detroit who are looking to take the next step and have really been looking as well for that game breaker. Chicago could be a good destination for him considering that as a young team. Connor Bedard very much needs help. who better than Mitch Marner. But at the end of the day, let's keep it here with the Penguins.

They've got $24 million in cap space this summer. They don't have any big time RFAs or UFAs that they're going to need to spend a lot of money on. So it could be a place for him to go. Here's where the problem lies in my estimation. The timelines just do not match up right now. If Mitch Marner had one year left on his deal in Toronto going into this upcoming season and everything were to play out the same, he doesn't negotiate in season, it looks like a messy breakup is coming, then it would make a lot of sense because some of these younger players

on the penguins would start to develop. They hopefully would begin to look like they were NHL ready and that the penguins would have a need and a lot more space to go big game hunting. but the problem is they're about a year apart from one another. So instead of talking about it right now, let's go a little hypothetical, shall we? Let's say next season or this summer, should I say, Mitch Marner decides instead of committing long term somewhere, signing for seven to eight years, a bunch of money. He says, I'm going to bet on myself next year. I'm going to take a one year deal.

It's not going to be with a. traditional contender, and I'm going to try to get myself flipped to one to where I can sign a long-term deal not long after, and then that doesn't happen. He hits the UFA market again. Penguins would be a great fit in that scenario. And I'm going to make a comparison that I can see some eyes rolling on, but hear me out on this. In a way, I don't think it would be that dissimilar to say Phil Kessel when the penguins got Phil Kessel. Kessel at the was supposed to be the guy who led the Toronto Maple Leafs back to glory. They're still looking for their first Stanley Cup since 1967.

They're looking to get to the conference final for the first time since 2002. This is a pretty tortured fan base, a pretty tortured franchise that wants to get back to the mountaintop. And Mitch Marner seemed like one of the perfect people to do it. Local Toronto guy, extremely talented. again, putting aside the playoff performances, and we're going to weave this in real quick here in a minute, he lived up to his end of the bargain in the regular season.

I went over the numbers. He's consistently been one of the best two-way forwards in the NHL, along with producing a pile of points, but then the playoffs happen. And there has been a ton of pressure on Mitch Marner. And while he isn't the guy, so to speak, in Toronto, He is part of a core four that have to shoulder all of the blame. And that's Austin Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Neelander.

Martner being a local guy, being a great story, a lot more pressure was put on him because everybody wanted the great narrative of Toronto boy, comes home, plays for his favorite team, ends up winning a championship, and he's one of the key drivers for it. and it didn't really happen that way. And it looks like they are going to part ways once July 1st hits. I wouldn't put it at 100%, but a lot of things point towards the Maple Leafs are going to go in a different direction, as is Mitch Martin. So weaving that in to the Phil Kessel part of it, while Kessel was a pretty good and consistent performer for the Toronto Maple Leafs, including in the playoffs, he couldn't be the guy. He couldn't be the guy to shoulder all of it, to be the guy in the spotlight. And a lot of that was Phil Kessel being Phil Kessel. Not very fun in the media, not really a guy who wants to shoulder all of that burden.

He just wants to score goals, play hockey, play poker, and have fun. And if you're a certain Toronto columnist, you tell people he likes to eat hot dogs. And a few years later, Phil gets the last laugh by putting some hot dogs in the Stanley Cup on the golf course. but I digress. So you kind of shift everything to Mitch Marner now. And he were to come to Pittsburgh, it would be the tail end of Sidney Crosby, of Gennie Malkin, Chris LaTang. Those guys are finishing up what are surefire Hall of Fame careers,

but they're still going to have all the spotlight on them because they have been the guys in Pittsburgh for 20 years. Marner, on the other hand, is just the big free agent signing that they have. and he gets to go out. He gets to score a bunch of points in the regular season. And when the playoffs come around, you're talking to Crosby, Malkin, Latang, about, hey, here's the things we've done in the past.

We want to get back to that. We want to win another Stanley Cup before we come to this end. And Barner's not really part of it. He's just another cog in the machine, just like it was in 2016 and 2017 with Phil Kessel. Kessel got a lot of attention because the HBK line came out of nowhere, but that was fun pressure. That was, these guys are lighting it up. These guys are having a great run together.

There wasn't really a ton of pressure. And you add in the big three in Pittsburgh, they've been there quite a few times. They've been to the conference final five times. They've been to the Stanley Cup final four times. They've won three Stanley Cups. I know that Marner's only, not only, but Marner is 28, and he's not. not a young guy by NHL standards anymore, but you look at who's been there in Toronto. They have tried with guys who have been Stanley Cup champions.

They have tried with guys who have gone deep in the playoffs and it doesn't seem to have worked, but you bring him into a new environment. You bring him into a new culture. And maybe he figures it out. Maybe he doesn't. And it would also be considering, let's play out the thread that he would probably be coming up on 30 at the time of this. hypothetical situation happening.

He would still have a good few years of hockey left in front of them. Crosby, Malkin, and Latang can hang them up. They can go off into the sunset. And Mitch Marner is one of the next people who guides your franchise into the future. Now, that's not to say, I think that he's some great leader or that he's the next great captain. But at the end of the day, you have a guy who is averaged between 80 and 100 points for the majority of his career, and we have seen with these elite talents, they have the ability to

extend their career well into their 30s. Is Mitch Warner that guy? Time is only going to tell. But again, to wrap this segment up, it would be nice. It would be a fun luxury. It would be a fun storyline for us as fans to say, hey, look, another Toronto guy comes to Pittsburgh, helps the team win a Stanley Cup and he couldn't do it in Toronto, but darn it he could do it in Pittsburgh. But again, at the end of the day, the timelines for both the player and the franchise don't really match up. So I really don't think that there is a world where Mitch Marner becomes a Pittsburgh penguin, though it would be a really nice thought.

That is going to do it for this middle segment. When we come back, we got a couple updates on the coaching search. we will get into those really quickly to end the show. So stick with us. We will talk about that right after this. Welcome back to the Wednesday edition of Locked on Penguins. I'm Patrick Damp flying solo today as Hunter Hodes is once again on the road. And let's give you a quick update on the Penguins head coaching search.

According to the one and only, Elliot Friedman, it appears. The coaching search is down to three candidates now. I will add the caveat that Friedman did say there may be other names involved, but these are the three that he is hearing. And it is down to Mitch Love, Jay Woodcroft, and D.J. Smith. We have talked at length on this show about Mitch Love and how in our estimation he is probably the strongest and best candidate to take over as the Penguins head coach. All of the pieces are there for what Kyle Dubus and the Penguins in, Fenway Sports Group are looking for in their next head coach, a guy who has some NHL experience, which Love obviously does as the assistant coach of the Washington Capitals.

He's also got a tremendous track record in both the AHL and the Canadian Junior League, checks all the boxes, has a great relationship. He's younger, and it appears like he is, in our estimation, the strongest candidate. Now, if Love does not continue to be the top candidate, or if he decides he does not want the job, in my estimation, the second best candidate is Jay Woodcroft, formerly of the Edmonton Oilers. We've talked about him on earlier episodes, especially when his name began to surface as one of the candidates for this job. He's got a great, great track record in the National Hockey League as both an assistant coach, and a developmental coach in the American Hockey League.

I also have to add that he did a very good job with the Edminton Oilers in his time as their head coach. He obviously got the buy-in from the big names of McDavid and Dry Cytle. He really helped that team take the next step into becoming what they are now as one of if not the best team in the Western Conference. but like so many coaches before him, his undoing wasn't so much his system or his message. He was ultimately undone by goaltending. The Edminton Oilers really struggled in net, therefore they struggled on the score sheet, and it ultimately led to his outing in Edmonton.

The last one that I do want to focus on to end this show is DJ Smith. Now, I have been very blunt on this show and saying that I would not be happy with this higher, but I do have to put some spin on the ball now because clearly he is one of the finalists and there is some interest from the Penguins in bringing Smith on board as the head coach of the team. First and foremost, there is a relationship there with Kyle Dubus. He was an assistant coach with the Maple Leafs during Dubus's time. in Toronto. He was mainly the power play coach with that team. And as we know, with all the talent that Toronto has had on its roster over the past few years, they have always had a

pretty solid power play, especially in the regular season. Now, one of the things I will say, or one of the few things that work against Smith as a candidate in my estimation, is that once he left Toronto and took over as the head coach of the audience, Ottawa senators, that was a young team that was starting to come into its own. Some of its players were starting to develop. You think Kachuk, you think Stutzla, a few others. And they didn't really take many steps forward. They kind of sat stagnant as a young team with some talent that couldn't really put it

all together. He loses his job. And now we've seen what happens with Ottawa. They make it into the playoffs. They give Toronto a little bit of a scare in the first round. They look pretty good while doing it and look like a team that's going to be pretty good for the foreseeable future. However, I will reiterate this point about Smith in Ottawa. He was in Ottawa for the end of the Eugene Melnik era as the owner.

Again, you don't want to speak ill of the dead, but during his time as owner of the senators, that organization was in complete chaos. They really did not have a direction. They had a very meddlesome owner who would veto decisions seemingly on a whim. He would make decisions that had a lot of people confused as its direction of the franchise as a whole. And sometimes, whether you're a GM, whether you're a head coach, whatever your title is in hockey operations, when you have ownership like that, you're pretty much doomed to fail. So putting that spin on the ball, there could be some potential for Smith as a head coach

in a more stable situation, and that is the Penguins. They have an ownership group that is willing to spend. They have an ownership group that hires people to do the job. They don't really often get involved. So if they have the trust in Kyle Dubus to get his guy, and his guy is Smith, at the very least, you can give him a chance. But that said, I'm not preemptively giving him an excuse or a pass. I do think Mitch Love is the top candidate, followed by Woodcroft.

And if both of them say no or both of them don't have strong interviews and it comes down to DJ Smith, at the very least, you can look at it as he's in a more stable situation and maybe he figures it out. But obviously, we will see what happens with that. Kyle Dubas said he would like to have a coach in place by June 1st, and that is this weekend. So obviously, if there are any changes or announcements, Hunter and I will hop on and do an episode to talk about the hire. Or if it's on a day where we're just doing an episode,

we'll obviously spend the bulk of the show talking about that. But that is going to do it for the Wednesday edition of Locked-on Penguins. Thank you, as always, for tuning in. I'm Patrick Damp. We will talk to you once again on Thursday.