Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Is a Penguins rebuild closer than we think it is?

Episode Date: December 20, 2023

Hunter is off this episode so Patrick is flying solo! Patrick talks about how a narrative has begun building in both the local and national press about how the Penguins might want to consider rebuilding sooner rather than later. He pushes back on that and why the Penguins are right to double down on the core. Then, he answers some of your questions about roster construction, PTOs, lineups, and of course, eats crow on some bad takes. Finally, it's Warrior Helmet Wednesday and Patrick gives you this week's winners of the warrior helmet!Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!eBay MotorsWith all the parts you need at the prices you want, it’s easy to turn your car into the MVP and bring home that win. Keep your ride-or-die alive at EbayMotors.com. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers.SleeperDownload the Sleeper App and use promo code LOCKEDONNHL to get up to a $100 match on your first deposit. Terms and conditions apply. See Sleeper’s Terms of Use for details.GametimeToday's episode is brought to you by Gametime.Take the guesswork out of buying tickets with Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNHL for $20 off your first purchase.FanDuelScore early this NFL season with FanDuel, America’s Number One Sportsbook! Right now, NEW customers get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS with any winning FIVE DOLLAR MONEYLINE BET! That’s A HUNDRED AND FIFTY BUCKS – if your team wins! Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms…🎧 https://link.chtbl.com/LOPenguins?sid=YouTubeLocked On NHL League-Wide: Every Team, Fantasy, Prospects & More🎧 https://linktr.ee/LockedOnNHL Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

There's been a lot of talk both locally and nationally that maybe it's time for the Pittsburgh Penguins to consider hitting the rebuild button. We're going to talk about that narrative and more on this edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. You're Locked-on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Your team every day. Welcome back, Penguins fans, to another edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm one of your host, Patrick Damp, riding solo today because we have to give a big congratulations to Hunter's sister who is graduating college today.

So he has a much deserved day off and I am riding by myself today. But today's episode is brought to you by Fandul, make every moment more. Right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets with any winning $5 money line bet. That's a $150 if your team wins. Visit Fandul.com slash locked on to get started. So I talked about it here in the intro. There's been a lot of talk both nationally and here in Pittsburgh that maybe it's time for the Pittsburgh Penguins and Kyle Dubus to think about maybe rebuilding this team. Maybe it's time to really consider life after the big three, now the big four with Eric Carlson.

And what kind of gave me the motivation to do this for this episode today was I'm a huge fan of the Steve Dangle podcast as well as SDPN, their network where they have several other shows, including the Chris Johnston show, which once you're done listening to us here on Locked on Penguins, they are definitely worth your time if you're not already listening to them. But after the obvious, you know they were going to talk about the Penguins Maple Leafs game, especially on the Steve Dangans. podcast because they are a very pro-leafs podcast. They're based out of Toronto. That's their team. That's who they talk about. If you're a huge hockey fan, you know who Steve Dangle is and all of the fun he has with the Toronto Maple Leafs on his YouTube channel.

But obviously they were going to talk about everything that happened in that game. And as Hunter and I have talked about on this show, we recapped that game. And it was, like I said, it was an ass kicking. The penguins went into Toronto and got completely humbled. No matter which way you spin it, a 7-0 loss is a 7-0 loss. But since that loss coupled with the slow start this season and that this team finds themselves outside of the playoff position right now, a lot of talk has been happening, especially amongst insiders, especially amongst some local beat reporters.

and analysts that maybe we need to start considering a rebuild. Maybe it's time that we admit that this era of Penguins hockey is over. I have to push back on that. Now, I have written it on my column on KDCA, Penguins' perspectives, plenty of times that we have to appreciate this era because it is much closer to being over than it is to being at the beginning, so to speak. So I always use the golf metaphor. It's we're on the back nine now rather than the front nine.

So this round is coming to a close. But I don't know that I buy into this narrative that it's time to rebuild the penguins. Now, I get it. They're not performing up to expectations in a weak metropolitan division. They're outside of a playoff spot well past American Thanksgiving, which as we know, traditional wisdom tells us if you are in a playoff spot, by American Thanksgiving, you are going to make the playoffs more than likely. And the Penguins were not in a playoff spot on American Thanksgiving.

We're coming up on Christmas, and they're still not in a playoff spot. They're four points out. They're fighting their way back in. But here's a couple things that I was thinking of today, getting ready to record this episode. First and foremost, if you just go straight to the top line statistics, Sidney Crosby, of Gennie Malkin, Eric Carlson, Chris Lattang, and Brian Rust,

are all producing. Jake Gensel has 34 points. Crosby has 33. Evgeny Malkin has 26. Eric Carlson has 22. Brian Rust has 20. Chris Lattang has 14. These guys are all producing

well within their career paces. They're playing well. They're up to expectation. They're doing what is being asked of them. So we can't really blame this on them. You know, we as Penguins fans have been down this road a million times. Anytime there's a struggle, it instantly goes right to let's blame the stars.

You know, it's an internet meme that if you have been following my work for a long time, whether it's just on social media or Penn's blog or wherever, there was always the meme that we were going to trade of Gennie Malk into the Los Angeles Kings. He has been linked to that team forever, even when he had great seasons, when there was no reason for it other than the team wasn't doing well. You also look at some of the advanced analytics. You know, you have at five on five, Gensel and Crosby are in the top five. Eric Carlson is in the top six at five v five for defensemen.

And that's for expected goals. So anytime these guys are on the ice, they're doing their job. And it very much is a depth problem. I've been saying this for a little while here, that the biggest issue the penguins have right now is there. the guys that Kyle Dubus brought in have not been performing to the level we need them to perform in the bottom six. Now, it's never going to be as easy as it was in 2015, 2016. Ideal world, you want that HBK line on your team all the time, but rare is it that you get that kind of production,

that kind of chemistry out of a third line. They caught lightning in a bottle those two years. and it's really hard to recapture. Now, the other thing I was also thinking of, and I have to give a shout out to Josh Yohe and Rob Rossi here, is if you go back and read, because it's part of the best of the year for the athletic, their kind of eulogy, so to speak,

on the Hextall-Birk era, excuse me, and tripped over my words there. While it seemed like they were hired by former CEO David Morehouse with the explicit instructions of, we're going to have to rebuild and we're going to have to sell off most of this core or just let them walk so we can start the rebuild process. Once Fenway Sports Group came in, that edict changed. But it didn't seem like Hextall and Burke believed in the change. it seemed like they were trying to reverse engineer a tanking. You think about the Afghani Malkin negotiations and how he was just a day or two away from testing free agency because Hextal was hardlining Afghani Malkin's negotiations.

There were contentious negotiations with Chris Latang. And then you look at just a lot of the signings, the guys they let go in both the expansion draft and via trade. and then free agency. It really felt like there was a reverse engineering of a tanking going on just to get to that point where they could say, okay, this team no longer has it, so we're going to sell off and begin the rebuild. And that put them in a very bad public relations place

because the town and the fans could see that the stars were not being treated fairly after everything they had done for this franchise. So right now, if you're Kyle Dubus and Fenway Sports Group, it's going to be really hard to justify getting rid of any of the big pieces. And that means Crosby, Malkin, Latang, and now Eric Carlson, which that's a different discussion because Eric Carlson is going to be incredibly hard to move, especially with all of the clauses in his contract and the salary he retains.

But before we finish up this segment, there is one thing I will say that I, do sort of agree with here. I have been saying it on this show quite a bit. I do think there is a little bit of a thought process in this front office and hockey operations staff that maybe this year is just that. It's not a go-for-it year. It's not a year where they're tripping over themselves to go on a Stanley Cup run and get back into the playoffs.

Because, as I said, Hextall and Burke left an absolute mess. And I don't think Fenway Sports Group or even Kyle Dubus himself, when he was in discussions with the sharks, to get Eric Carlson, thought that he was going to be able to undo so many of those moves in one fell swoop. But you also factor in that next season,

they're going to have just a shade over $18 million in cap space. And their only big unrestricted free agent is Jake Gensel. Now, if this season continues the way it's been going, if you have a struggle to get into the playoffs, you find yourself at the All-Star break, which was Kyle Dubus's self-declared red line to assess this team, maybe it's not the worst idea if you do a quick one-year retooling where maybe you can shop Jake Gensel at the deadline to a contender in the West that needs some scoring. Because if you look at the goal scoring rates in the Western Conference outside of one or two teams, a lot of teams who are in that playoff race need scoring help.

You can net back a good prospect and start to rebuild those draft picks that you need and maybe get some young talent in the door for him. him. Now, might that upset Crosby, it's a discussion to be had. Maybe you can also find a way to move someone like a Brian Rust, despite having a couple of no move clauses and a $5.125 million deal. You have the opportunity this year to do a little bit of a retooling on the fly, similar to what, and I know a lot of people are going to cringe when I say this, the Washington Capitals. Now, they're struggling this year. They're not as good as they started off and they're kind of middle of the pack now. But you can see over the last couple of years,

they were able to do a quick retooling and get some younger players in there and some more talent. So while I don't think we are at the point yet to finish up this segment, well, I don't think we're at the point yet for the Pittsburgh Penguins to start thinking about life after the big three. I do think there is an argument to be made that maybe they can do a quick retooling of this franchise, of this team,

should they not make a playoff run this year and have them right back in place to be a contender again next season? But that's going to do it for this segment. When we come back, I've got the house to myself, so I wanted to have a little bit of a house party. If you follow me on Twitter,

I asked you for some of your questions and things that you want to know about this team and what my thoughts are on that, but we will get to that after this. But first we have to tell you about our sponsor, which is Sleeper. A new NHL season brings all sorts of possibilities. Even our guy, Sidney Crosby, looking like he could probably maybe score 50 goals. Maybe even the Penguins could win the Stanley Cup.

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As I said in the first segment, Hunter Hodes is off today, so I am flying solo. Now, I wanted to talk to you, the Locked on Penguins listeners and Locked on Penguins community because you guys have done an incredible job of welcoming me to this show and making me really feel like a part of it. So because of that and because I've got the house. to myself, so to speak. I open it up to you to have ourselves a little locked on house party here, and we are going to take your questions.

And I am going to start with Zachary Kolo at Z-Man 71789 on Twitter. He asks, what do you think the future holds for Jake Gensel in the Penguins core? Now, this is a difficult question for me, because as I was just saying in the last segment, I can see a world where if this team is not in a playoff position or at the very least not two to three points-ish out of a playoff spot come the All-Star break, that's a guy that could net you a solid return. And he's a guy who could get you a couple of draft picks or a good prospect or maybe make a hockey trade and get somebody who you can have on your roster for the next three, four years as you start to wind down the Crosby-Malkan era.

Now, I also, I hinted at this as well, that is Sidney Crosby's preferred winner. And while Sidney Crosby is not exactly a guy who comes out and says, I'm the best player on this team. I'm the franchise. You have to do what I want to keep me happy or I'm going to leave. You also don't want to upset him too badly. And we know that during the negotiations with Letang and Malkin a couple of off seasons ago, he was not happy with the way those guys were being treated.

Now, a lot more history with those two. They've been together the longest in North American sports. So it's tough. If this team's in a playoff position come All Star Break or they're one or two, three points out of a spot. I say start the talks on extending him. See if you can get him for a good amount of money for three, four, maybe five years. I don't think you want to go any longer than that just because of his age, the miles on his body, as well as you are eventually going to have to start this rebuild at some point,

and he would be a prime candidate to net you a lot of return once that time comes, or just be a guy that, you know what, he helps out and then walks off into the sunset. So it's a tough question, but I do think that there's a lot of ways this can go. Next, we're going to go to Robert Donahue at our Donahue 66 on Twitter. He asks, where will Poole-Yarvey fit when everyone healthy if he is signed? It has been cricket since the first practice. So that's the thing. We're not sure yet.

It doesn't seem they have to have made a decision on Jesse Poole-RV. As I record this show about 345 here on Wednesday, Wednesday afternoon, there hasn't been any news. But I would like to see them sign him. I think that there actually could be some moves here for it with Brian Rust on LTIR. They still have Jesse Pooey-R-V listed as a PTO or a FATO, however you want to categorize it. I think he would be a really good bottom six option. He is really good on the forecheck.

He is really tenacious. He creates offense. but that there is kind of the story of the Pittsburgh Penguins right now. He creates offense. He has very good underlying numbers, but he doesn't finish. And that's a problem. So as we know with the Penguins so far this year, they're struggling to score. They are doing well at 5V5 with puck possession, with expected goals, with just about

everything else, the problem is at the base level, this team is not putting the puck in the net, and that's a problem. So when you talk about a guy like Jesse Poo-R-V, who they have on a PTO, it's going to be really difficult to justify signing him because he's not going to add scoring. However, I do still believe he would be a good option for the bottom six. He would help out a struggling bottom six with puck possession numbers. He would help. He would help. them with forechecking. Maybe it gets a guy like Drew O'Connor or Red Eames-Hornigo and even Lars Eller or Nolichari. It can be a really good fit with one of those two guys. So, ideally I'd like to see them sign him to a one-year deal for an affordable amount of money.

And then you see what he can do in the bottom six. And we go from there. Lastly, we are going to take a question from Randy. It's not so much a question as It is a roasting of me, because like I said, you guys have done a great job of welcoming me into the locked on penguins community. So from Randy at Jackson's Papa, I hope I read that Twitter handle right. Can we circle back to that DOC on PowerPlay 1 idea that you floated a couple of weeks back? I feel like, I don't feel like you have been publicly shamed sufficiently. Yeah, that was a dumb take. It was not one of my better ones.

but at that time, the penguins were in the midst of that franchise historic drought on the power play. Nothing was working. Nobody was doing anything right. The puck wasn't going in. They couldn't find the net. They couldn't even get into the zone. And as Hunter and I have talked about over and over and over and over again, at the time, which is something that they have switched now on the power play,

they have started getting a net front presence. And when they were missing that so sorely, I thought, you know what? It might not be the worst idea to put DOC's big frame in front of the goalie and just let everybody blast away. So yeah, not my best take, but as we know, the power play has been finding itself a resurgence. And that's the big turning point here, I think, you know, to kind of go back to my first segment here about pushing back on the rebuild and the slow start is if this power play, it doesn't have to keep operating at the 37.5% rate that it has been producing at over the last week. But if they stay at 15, 20-ish percent over the next few weeks and they start stacking

some wins together, because we saw it at start of the season. If the power play would have even just been league average, this team would have been comfortably in a playoff spot. And they could have worked on everything else that was ailing them just so long. as the power play was not clicking at an 8% or 9% rate, whichever it was early in the season. So yeah, that wasn't my best take, but that's going to do it for this segment. When we come back, we are going to celebrate the one thing we celebrate every Wednesday, and that is Warrior Helmet Wednesday, but first we have to tell you about our next sponsor,

and that is Fandul. As the weather gets colder, the NFL offers stay hot on Fandle. Right now, new customers get $150 in bonus bets with any. winning $5 money line bet. That's $150 if your team wins. If you've been thinking about joining Fandul, there's no better time to get it on the action. The app is so easy to use, and there is a wide range of betting options,

including spreads, player props, overunders, and more. So visit Fandle.com slash locked on and kick off the NFL season, Fandle, the official partner of the National Football League. We're back here on the last segment of this edition of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Patrick Damp. No hunter hoodies today. He is celebrating his sister's college graduation, so I am flying solo today. But I did put a call into him this afternoon just to make sure I had this ready for Warrior Helmet Wednesday.

And he's going with the obvious solution. He's going with the obvious pick. He's going with the captain, number 87, Sidney Crosby, who you got to give it to him at this point. He is to quote what Hunter sent to me. He's carrying the team on his back. He continues to score in big moments and setting more milestones, and he's doing things that you should not be allowed to do at age 36. Can't disagree with Hunter at all. I really can't.

It's, he, Sydney Crosby has been everything that we want him to be. He has been the leader of the team. All of the intangibles are there. He's like Hunter said, scoring the big moments, that power play goal against the Minnesota wild, less than a. minute after they coughed up a three-nothing lead to take back a lead at four to three. Those are the things that only the greats can do. And you just have to respect his game right now. He's playing so well.

And really, as this team is starting to figure it out on the power play and starting to, excuse me, find itself a little bit here everywhere else, he's remaining consistent. And that's huge for this team, especially as they struggle. a little bit because once this team figures it out and Sidney Crosby keeps it going, that is only going to be a net positive for this franchise and their desire to get back to the Stanley Cup playoffs. As for me, I have to take my victory lap as I have before. I'm going to do it.

I have to give him his first warrior helmet. I have to go with Valteri Pustin. I can't stop singing this kid's praises because five games so far this year, four assists. You know, it hasn't been a spectacular NHL debut, well, not NHL debut, but season debut for the kid because he did play a game last year. But 23, 24, you know, we have talked about this kid on the show. If you follow pretty much the Penguins, he has been one of the guys that people talk about in Wilkes Bear, who looks like he's ready to take the next step. And he had a very solid week.

He's got four assists in five games. I talked about it on yesterday's show. The setup for Evgeny Malkins' goal, that was a great top six player move. For a 24-year-old who's only played at the time, he had only played five NHL games, it would have been very easy for him to just take the shot there. And he probably would not have scored. That probably not even netted a rebound with how aggressive the goaltender was playing. but he had the foresight to pass the puck over to Malkin because both the defensemen and the goalie

were playing shot. So he was able to slide that puck over and Hvgeny Malkin had an entire net shoot at. Added in the fact that the first goal of the night against Minnesota, he's in on the forecheck. He's working extremely hard. And he's looking like he has serious chemistry with Hvgeny Malkin and Riley Smith. And if he keeps playing the way that he has been playing, I don't think the goals are too far off. I think this kid is going to be really valuable for this team,

especially once Brian Rust comes back. If Ricard Raquel starts figuring it out on the top line with Crosby and Gensel, that can push Rust down the lineup, which gives you more depth. And as we know, this team has a depth problem this year. So a lot of good things from Valteri Pustin. Very happy with his play so far. So he gets my warrior helmet for this week. Hunter giving it to the captain, Sydney Crosby.

But that is going to do it for me and us on this edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. We will be back tomorrow and we will preview a huge metropolitan matchup against the Carolina hurricanes. And Hunter will be back for that one. So thank you all for sticking with me and hanging with me on this solo episode of the Locked on Penguins podcast for Hunter Hodes. I am Patrick Damp.

Thank you for listening. And we will be back tomorrow.