Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Is it Matthew Tkachuk szn?

Episode Date: June 23, 2021

It's surely a special episode today. After some Matthew Tkachuk rumors swirled last night, Hunter talks about how perfect of a fit it would be with the Penguins, especially after what Ron Hextall said during his end-of-season press conference. What would it cost to get him? Does it make sense to include Sam Poulin in a deal for him? Hunter also wonders about the contract, where Tkachuk has just one year left at $7M. After that, he gets into a potential ZAR replacement in Joel Armia and what he would bring to the lineup. Was this year a bit of a fluke or is it a sign of things to come? What kind of contract would he likely get? To wrap it up, Hunter recaps Bolts-Islanders Game 5 and wonders if this is the end for the Nassau Coliseum (finally).Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Your Locked-on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Your team every day. Hello, everyone, and welcome to this Tuesday evening episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes.

Follow this show's Twitter at L-O-R-N-Square Penguins. Hope you all having a great Tuesday as we get closer and closer to now to the middle of the week. closer and closer to my beach trip. This week, I'll be going down to Virginia Beach with some family during the morning on Friday, but not to worry, I still will have an episode going up at some point on Friday for you all

as we go into the weekend, which is, of course, still four days away, but anyways, before I get sidetracked even more, for today's episode, we're going to touch on some Matthew Cichuck rumors and how it looks like he may want out of Calgary. Could the Penguins have some interest? What will it take for Pittsburgh to pry him out of Calgary?

Does the fit make sense? We're going to go all over that in this first segment. We're also going to touch on what happened last night between the Tampa Bay Lightning and the New York Islanders. You know, you hate to see what happened to the Islanders last night, everyone. Just, you truly hate to see it. And I'm also going to go a little more in depth about, you know, Yuel Armia. And if that fit makes a lot of sense for the Penguins, as well as potentially talk about Brandon Sott, because he also is hitting the free agent market.

This offseason, though, we're unsure if the Penguins will have interest there. You know, they probably will because he is a Pittsburgh kid, but, you know, you never know at this point. But, okay, so last night, the big. rumor that has been going around is that Matthew Kachuk may want out of Calgary. He has one year left on his contract for $7 million. So this would require a good amount of cap flexibility for Pittsburgh. If you look at Jay Fresh's model, his wins above replacement is 87%. Even strength offense ranks in the 93rd percentile power play in the 76 percentile.

Primary says per 60, 85 percent. Goals per 60, 68 percent. Penalties drawn 84 percent. Finishing ability, 68 percent. And this is a very good player on a team that has just been kind of middling, I think, these last couple of years. I think that's honestly the best way to put the Calgary Flames. If you want more good Calgary Flames analysis, go check out Jess Belmosto of Locked-on Flames. I think she does an extraordinary job over there.

For someone who doesn't even root for the team, I think she covers the team to a very high level. I will say that. So definitely go check that out. She also has her thoughts on the situation. But in terms of this, it would make so much sense for the Penguins. honestly makes all the sense in the world. This is a player, you know, Ron Hextall spoke about this after, you know, during his media press conference after the season, he said, these are the kind of players that don't become

available very often, so it's hard to go after them. You know, Kachuk fits into that mold. They're trying to get bigger. They're trying to get tougher. That is the kind of player you want to go after. Is it likely that the penguins go get him? No, you know, could they go after him? Absolutely.

You know, I expect them to maybe gauge some interest, but, you know, will they get him? I don't think so. It's going to have to take quite the package, I think, to get Kachuk out of Calgary. No, you're not going to trade Jake Gensel for him. That's a non-starter. If it were me, you know, if I'm proposing a trade package to go get Matthew Kachuk, you're looking at Brian Rust. I would put Samuel Pooleyn in there. There are not many people I would trade Poole-in for, but I think Kach is one of them.

And I would think you would also have the first round pick in there for whichever. I think they have the first-round pick in that next year's draft. So I think to start, it's Poulana First and Brian Rust and potentially even more. Now, is that a price that Ron Hextall wants to pay for someone like Matthew Kachuk? I'm not sure. You know, like I said, as he said, during his media conference, I don't know why I keep saying after it, but during it, you know, when he wanted to, you know, get tougher and bigger, you know, like I said, just a couple minutes ago,

these players don't become available very often. So when they do, you know, you're going to have a lot of teams going after them because they're very well coveted. and I'm sure there are other teams that have more cap space and more resources to give up than the penguins. So I'm not saying that it's impossible for Pittsburgh to get Kachuk, but I definitely think it is a bit unlikely. If you go look at more of his stats this season, he was on the ice for 55.5% of the shot attempts, 58.5% of the actual goals score. His expected goals score percentage was 55% as well.

Scoring chances, 54.4% high danger, 54.8% of those when he was on. on the ice and for actual high danger goals for 54.7%. So he has some outstanding underlying numbers. He's a pest to play against. I mean, imagine Kachuk going up against the Washington Capitals, you know, four to five times during the regular season and then potentially in a six to seven game playoff series. I mean, I think Pittsburgh fans would like Kachuk in an instance, especially if

did something to Tom Wilson or, you know, T.J. Oshare, any other of the Caps players, you know, he would be a fan favorite right away. I think in this deal they would probably try to have Calgary eat some salary. I don't think Pittsburgh is able to eat a full $7 million cap pit, even if it's just for one season. Yes, you maybe are looking at an extension for him. But I think the big thing is this team needs to win next year before a lot more serious changes are made.

I've talked about this on the podcast before. A lot of contracts are up next year for the Penguins. I mean, obviously, Evgeny Malkin is likely going to be back. Chris Littang as well, both their contracts are up next year. I touched on this. Kisbury Kappenden, he is, his contract is up. I don't know if he's going to be back. Brian Russ contract is up.

I don't think he's going to be back either. Well, if he's traded in this hypothetical deal for Kachuk, he's not coming back anyway. But even if he's not included in that package or he's on the team going into next season, I doubt he is on the team after the finish 2020 season. They are not going to pay that. So, I mean, yeah, there's a lot of really good players that their contracts are up after next season, and that's going to be a big pivotal point for those franchises history, especially if they come close next season, they don't win, what does Hextall and Burke do they?

Do they try to take more runs at it when the core is even older? Or do they just say, hey, you know, it's time to retool and start the rebuild process, let's sell off some assets. You know, I don't think the latter is likely, especially because Cindy Crosby's there, and as long as he is there, especially with Epkinny Malkin, this team is going to want to compete, and they are going to want to win Stanley Cubs. until they basically retire. But, you know, again, me personally, I would love if Kachukh came to Pittsburgh.

I mean, you could have a top six of, you know, Jake Gensel, Sidney Crosby, Kasparekappan, Evgeny Malkin, Matthew Kachuk, and if they still have Jason Zucker on the team next year, I mean, that is a pretty filthy top six, especially if Zoker gets back to the level that he was playing on during the 2019-20 season, especially in the return to play when I think he was one of their top two to three best players. and then if they can get that Jason Zooker back next year and they somehow get Kachuk for a pretty big package, you're replacing Rust with Kachuk.

I mean, that top six I think is better than this season's top six and I really liked the season's top six a whole lot. So sign me up for it. I am all for it. Like I said, though, I want to caution you all. It's definitely pretty unlikely that this happens, but, you know, crazier things have happened, you know, with this franchise. I remember back in 2013, they traded for a Jerome again,

and all hoped seemed to be lost, when it looks like he was going to Boston. They've made a lot of moves out of left field. I definitely think this one would be out of left field for Hextall, because he usually doesn't take big swings. He usually just likes to tinker with his rosters, not make a lot of major changes. I know he did the Shen trade, I think, a few years ago,

and I think a couple other ones as well, but he's not usually the type of general manager that likes to make a major blockbuster mood. I mean, this move would also make sense for Brian Burke. He knows the player he was there when I believe he was drafted. it fits his trunculence system in quotation marks, excuse me. So I would love for this to happen, and it 100% fits the penguins' needs for the management. They want to be tougher to play against.

They want to be harder to play against, and they want to get bigger, and they want to get tougher. So we'll see what happens with that. I'm sure this is not going to be the last Matthew Kuchak rumor that we read throughout the offseason, but I wanted to touch on that for the first segment, what it would take for the penguins to get him, and if the move makes sense, which it obviously does. But he is going to cost quite a lot and know everyone for the final time. Jake Gensel should not be included anywhere in that trade package. Okay, we still have a lot more to get to for this episode of the Lockdown on Penguins podcast,

including some thoughts on Yuel Armea, especially if Seattle takes sack Aston Reese in the expansion draft. But before we do get to that, it's time to talk about rock auto.com. You can save time and money when using Rock Auto. And here's a good question for you all. Why should you choose to spend 30%, 50%, even 100%? percent more for the same parts from a chain store or a car dealership. Rock Auto, it's a family business serving do-it-yourselfers for over 20 years. The prices are very low for every customer.

They have everything you need from brake parts, tail lamps, motor oil, and even new carpet. You can go to rockaio.com right now and see all the parts available for your car truck. And you can write locked on in their how did you hear about us box so they know we sent you. Amazing selection. Right below prices, all the parts of your car will ever need. That's rock auto.com. All right, welcome back to this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes.

Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes, follow the show's Twitter at L.O.R.Nor-Square Panguins. So as I load up some stats here for Yol Armiya, if I go to Natural Stat Trick, which I am doing right now. So this was the regular season for Armia. I played in 41 games, was on the ice for 54.5% of the shot attempts, 60.9% of the actual goals for. His expected goals percentage was 52.7%. He was also on the ice for 56.6% of the scoring chances. High danger chances for around 49.7.

But for actual high danger goals for 65%. 13 goals for, seven goals against. And then if you go to his counting stats, if I can just go to his hockey reference page real quickly here, seven goals, 14 points in 41 games. He honestly was definitely a bit unlucky this season, especially if you look at those underlying numbers. Again, this is a player, 6-4, 210 pounds.

He's 28, so you don't really have to sign him to a four to five-year term like you did with Brandon Tanniv. But again, this isn't another big body that just makes all this sense in the world for Pittsburgh. You know, if they want to get bigger, they want to get tougher. You know, sure, he's not a center. He's a natural right winger, but you could probably move him around the lineup. I'm sure he probably won't care as much.

If you just look at more of his counting stats throughout the years during the 2020 season, 16 goals, 30 points in 58 games, season before that, 13 goals, 23 points in 57 games, and then 29 points in 79 games during the 2018 season. If you look at more of his underlying numbers throughout his career, this was his best season for, you know, his course seat with 54.5%. This was his best season ever for actual goals for. And then for expected goals, this was around, I think this was in his top three for the best season in terms of his expected goals.

And then for his schooling chances for percentage, this was at 56.6%. That is a career high for him as well. So I don't think he's going to be super cheap. I mean, I don't think you're going to get him to say like a two-year, four million deal. I think it's probably going to have to be around. two and a half to three million per, probably closer to three million per, but you can get them for two years, six million, you know, three years, nine million, I think that's fine. You're

only paying him for ages what, you know, 28 to 31, 29, 32, whatever at this point. You know, like I said, as long as you're not signing, you know, another Brandon Tanniv contract when he goes to about his age 34, 35 year, I think they'll be okay. You just, and luckily for Pittsburgh, Jim Rutherford is not there to give out a six-year term for another bottom six-player. So that's definitely not going to have. You know, Ron Hextel is not the kind of general manager to do that. But, you know, I'm just picturing a lineup in my head, especially if they somehow make a Kachuk trade. And it includes Brian Russ and a couple other pieces.

I mean, your top 12 is probably consists, you know, the top six I mentioned at Jake Gensel, Cindy Crosby, Gennie Malk, and Kaspari Kappen, Matthew Kach, probably Jason Zucker, you know, your bottom six. this is assuming they take Zachas and respect either way you know Brandon Tanev Teddy Bluger Yuel R. Mia Jared McCann Frederick Goodrow and I guess one of the kids

I mean like Arii comes up I mean maybe they re-sign Evan Rodriguez or something like that but that's still a really deep forward lineup now if they don't trade for Kachuk now the forward lineup but the top six will remain the same I think from last season you could still run Zulker with McCann

and Freddie Goodrow and then for your fourth line you can just have Tanev with Blugher and Yuel Armea, I mean, that's a pretty damn good fourth line. You know, there's not only some good defensive players on that line, but there's also players that can provide some good depth scoring, especially from what you saw from Teddy Blugher this year, without his offense broke out, and then you bring Yuel Armiya onto that line,

especially with what he's done in his past few seasons. I mean, that's still a pretty daunting bottom six. You still have the defense there of Dumlin-Latang. I think P.O. Joseph gets bumped up to the lineup full-time with John Marino. You probably have Marcus Pedersen there. Maybe Mike Matheson. sure if Ron Hextall wants to make a trade there to move some salary out. You also have Chad Riedel there ready to step up, especially if Cody C.C.

I'm going to put that out there right now, everyone. I don't think I've made a prediction on this podcast yet. Cody Cic is not going to come back to this team. I really don't see it. I don't think the Penguins will have the cap space to pay. I mean, this basically this one-year deal for him was just, okay, you know, let's see what I can do. Now that he exceeded expectations, he can go out and get a little bit of a payday that he deserves.

I mean, his underlying numbers this year were through the roof. Even if you didn't even look at his analytics and you're not an analytics person, just watching him on the ice. I mean, he was just, it was night and day from the last few seasons when he was with Toronto and Ottawa where he could not play defense in his own zone to save his life. It definitely looked a bit rough to start the season, but after he settled in, working with Tar Reardon, Cici had a tremendous season. But with that said, I expect him to sign maybe a two to three year deal around maybe

three million per. I think that's a fine contract for him. I just don't think the penguins are going to be able to afford that, you know, with their salary cap issues going forward, just because, you know, this team is always up against the cap. You know, they would have to be a little creative, I think, to sign C.C. And also, you know, the big thing is, can you expect him to play like that again? I'm not sure. That's my big thing. I don't know if he can replicate that again.

You can hope that he does, you know, he may, especially because he knows the system. He likes working with Tar Reardon, I'm sure, but, you know, can you definitely bank on that? I think that's my big thing. I think if Chavra Weedle steps in, it's totally fine. And like I said, with P.O. Joseph probably being bumped up to a full-time role, I don't really think the defense is going to miss a beat next year. But yeah, I mean, going back to the original point of this segment with Yoel Armiah, it makes a lot of sense with his size.

You know, he's tough. He's physical, you know, as Brian Burke and Ron Hextall like to say, you know, plays the game hard, you know, as they say as well. And he can ship in offensively. I have no problem, you know, getting bigger, you know, getting mean, rude quotation marks, they're getting tougher, but, you know, as long as these players can play and chipping offensively and be good in their own zone, you know, that's really all I care about, you know, and if their numbers are good, then I'm a happy camper. You know, they can be physical,

they can be hard to play against, tough to play against, et cetera, et cetera, all they want. But I think this will be a slam dunk acquisition for the Penguins if they would sign him in free agency. And I definitely expect a Hextal to be after a bottom six player, especially someone in YOLR Mia if the Seattle does take Ashton Reeves because that will be a big void that he would have to fill in a line, especially because Ashton Reese is one of the best defensive players, not just on the team, but I think around the league. And I really do think that the loss of him would hurt the team a lot more than some people realize. I called him the most underrated and most underappreciated player on the team going into this past season. And I don't think I was wrong about that. That was one of

the few things that I got right for this penguin season. I know, you know, I probably get old takes exposed a lot for a lot of stuff that happened in with the season, especially when it comes to Cody C.C. and maybe expecting Jason Zoker to be a lot better than he was, etc. But I definitely think I got the Ashton Reese part right. I'll say that. But, okay. Still have a little more to get to for this episode

of the Locked on Penguins podcast. We're going to touch on the two series in the next segment with a couple other things, I think. But before we do that, it's time to talk about Bet Online. The fastest easiest way to run on your sports action. Baseball season is in full swing, and you can track all the action at Bed Online. You can get the latest

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You know, to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes, follow the show's Twitter at L.O. underscore Penguins. So let's talk about what happened last night as the Tampa Bay Lightning utterly destroyed the New York Islanders in game five, 8-0 to take a 3-2 lead in the best of 7 series. And now the hashtag cancel the Coliseum is in full effect. Hopefully tomorrow night has the last game ever at the Nassau Coliseum. It is such a dump. I absolutely hate it as I'm sure all of you that listen to this podcast know that. You hate to see the islanders luck go against them. You know, the horseshoes started to come out of their butts a little bit last night.

The way Tampa Bay played against them last night was the exact same way that the penguins played against them in their game five about a month ago. The biggest difference of one, they actually were rewarded for it. You know, they had a three-nothing lead going into the second period, and then it was six-nothing going into the third. And Semyon-var-Lamov looked like crap. And then, wow, Ilya Serocha-ochen actually looks human for a change. doesn't play like Superman. No, I'm not mad in the slightest anyone about Ilius Sorokin of actually looking mortal last night and not godlike. I only wish he acted more mortal like in game five, especially in the overtime where the Penguins had chance after chance,

after chance, and again, everyone, no, I'm definitely still not mad about that game. Nope, not in the slightest, but what a game it was for the lighting. I mean, they came out and blitzed the islanders right from the start. You know, New York had no answer for them. They weren't forechecking. They weren't even playing defensively. I definitely think you will see a different Islanders team tomorrow night, but I said Tampa Bay in six before this started, I am going to stick with that. I think tomorrow night they close out the dump that we call the Nassau Coliseum for good, and they will go back to the Stanley Cup final to defend their title. They're just, the lightning are just so much fun to watch. They are what I want the Penguins

to be for the last few years of Sidney Crosby's prime years. I guess for as long as the window is open. That's how I want the Penguins to play. Sure, you know, they cheated the salary cap, but, you know, the Blackhawks also did it with Patrick King just a few years ago. And the outrage, honestly, wasn't even as big then as it was now with Kuthorov. I mean, there was still some outreach, but it definitely wasn't as big with what happened this past season with his injury. But still, Tampa Bay is the jugger. Now, when they're on like that, there is not a team in the world that can beat them. I fully, again, I fully expect for them to go back to the Stanley Cup final.

Game 5 tonight is between Vegas and Montreal in Las Vegas. Andre Fleury for some reason is getting this start. I really don't understand why Peter DeBoer is going back to him. I guess they're just going to keep flopping goalies until one of them gets their groove back. I'm not really sure. I would have went with Leonard tonight. They went to him in game four. It worked.

He only allowed one goal. And I guess that was a message sending to Flurry. But now you're just going to start him in game five when everything is almost on the line. You know, usually the team that goes up three to two in the series wins. I mean, I think it's been like that. all playoffs long for this year, and I think for mostly last year as well. So that's definitely a curious decision for Vegas. I do expect the Golden Knights to win tonight to go up three games to two,

and then I do expect the series to be over in Montreal. On Thursday, I really hope I don't get old takes exposed to that. If that does not happen, you are free, any of you are free to come at me in my DMs. You can add the podcast Twitter account, or you can add my personal Twitter account at Hunter Hodes if I do get this wrong. But I'm definitely hoping that I do not get it wrong. I'm also hoping that we do get a Tampa Bay, Las Vegas final because those are two running gun teams that play with a lot of speed and a lot of skill.

Sure, they can play good defensively, but they forecheck hard. And it's just a lot of fun hockey to watch. And yes, everyone, we are also nearing the end, finally, just a couple more weeks of the NBC TV deal. I keep seeing, you know, that this huge, you know, that Honda sports decks, I think, that they have. And it's like, wow, you're really going to invest for that for the playoffs. when you could have done that any other season, even though you know you're losing the NHL in the next couple of weeks.

I find that so funny to me because they're really not going to need it again, probably ever, because I don't even know if the NHL is ever going to go back to NBC, even after this next TV deal is up with ESPN internal sports. But, you know, it won't be a moment too soon. We are almost done with Pierre McGuire. I don't even know if he's going to be working the Stanley Cup final. I think he, I think that their A team is going to be Kenny Albert, Brian Boucher, and I'm hoping it's Joe McAuletti,

but I'm hoping it's not Pierre. I don't think it is, because Pierre, I think, is on the B team right now, at least from what I can tell, at least. So this might be the last series that we see Pierre McGuire work for a long time when it comes to hockey. So let's saviour that. Go watch the game tonight. It's going to be a lot of fun.

I appreciate every single one of you listening to this episode. This was the 300th episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. excuse me, you know, whether it's one episode, whether it's 10, whether it's all 300 somehow, if you've listened to all 300 episodes, I'll just, I'll kiss you on the mouth right now. But again, thank you all so much for continuing to listen to this podcast. I understand that the numbers have gone down a bit since the playoffs. I mean, that is expected, though. You know, I definitely did expect that, you know, offseason, especially well before the draft and free agency

and during the playoffs for the Penguins are not in. Not as many people are going to listen. I totally get that. You know, it's not the peak time to listen. to a Penguins podcast, but that's not, it doesn't mean that I'm going to stop giving you all content. I love doing this every day of the season. And even when it does go to three days a week, I think that's going to be late July and then August. I'm still going to be very excited to give you all some great Penguins content. But the season reviews will return tomorrow. I'm not sure who I'm going to be doing yet.

It'll be a surprise for you all. We'll also touch on a few other things related to Penguins as well. But thank you all so much for listening to this one and continuing to support this podcast. podcast if you. You have not yet. Go on Apple, go on Spotify, rate it, give me a review. If you think the podcast sucks, well, I hope that you wouldn't be listening to it. But if you think this podcast is awesome, give it a five out of five stars. I would very much appreciate that. Write a review. Tell me what you like about it. Tell me what you think I should do to improve on it and all that good stuff. But again, thank you so much for listening to this episode and let's do another one of these tomorrow.