Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Is Mike Sullivan making a mistake with likely scratching PO Joseph?

Episode Date: March 7, 2023

It's another massive week for the Pittsburgh Penguins as they have a lot of very important games. First off though, Hunter does a small recap of Saturday's 4-1 loss to the Florida Panthers. He looks at how the Penguins laid a massive egg in that game and why the loss was also not that big of a deal because they still have good math for a playoff spot. More importantly, though, Hunter goes over why the Penguins badly need Tristan Jarry down the stretch as he's their most important player. He brings up Adam Gretz's stats on how the Penguins rarely ever win when their backups are in the net and why the Penguins seem to play better defensively in front of Jarry than DeSmith. After that, Hunter analyzes why it's a mistake to take POJ out of the lineup for Kulikov and puts out a better suggestion instead. He then looks at what the Penguins' defensive pairs could be in the playoffs if Kulikov outplays Dumoulin like some expect him to (it's debatable either way). Finally, Hunter previews Tuesday night's game against the Blue Jackets as these are two points that the Penguins NEED to get.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.Athletic GreensTo make it easy, Athletic Greens is going to give you a FREE 1-year supply of immune-supporting Vitamin D AND 5 FREE travel packs with your first purchase. All you have to do is visit athleticgreens.com/NHLNETWORKFanDuelMake Every Moment More. Don’t miss the chance to get your No Sweat First Bet up to ONE THOUSAND DOLLARS in Bonus Bets when you go FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It's another new week, and there are a lot of very important games for the local hockey team this week, starting on Tuesday against the Columbus Blue Jackets. But to start today's episode, we're going to get into a couple of thoughts from the game on Saturday against the Florida Panthers. Plus, why Mike Sullivan is making a massive mistake in taking P.O. Joseph out of the lineup. It looks like he's making a massive mistake for Tuesday nights game against the Wooljacket that's all coming up right after this drop. You're Locked-on Penguins, your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello and welcome back to another episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hodes.

Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes, to follow the show's Twitter at L, Orange for Penguins, and of course, thank you all so much for making this your first listen of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. So Penguins' four-game winning street comes to an end on Saturday, a 4-1 defeat to the Florida Panthers. Let's just be real here. Penguins laid an egg in that game. They look like crap, I would say.

It was a very boring first period for the most part of the first 15, 16 minutes. Nothing really happened. Then the Panthers started to get some quality chances. Penguins gave up a late goal in the period. And then, you know, it kind of just snowballed. And in a second, they go down by two. They get one back on the five on three, miss an easy chance to make it. 2-2, Sid gets absolutely robbed by, I sort of gave Robske.

I thought he shanked it at first, and the Panthers went on to win, or score to make it 3-1, and then they went on to win for one. A little bit of a chippy game, kind of like an old-school one, Sasha Barkov with a very dirty play on Chris and saying, I will never stand for players just, even if it's an accent, which I know it was, Sasha's not a dirty player. But, you know, lifting his stick up and just slapping him and, you know, the balls. That's where the sun don't shine is the other way to say it. That kind of play just doesn't belong in the sport.

I think it's very dirty. I'm not surprised that there's no fine for it. But, you know, that's just a kind of play that's very annoying. But just not a good performance at all from the Penguins. And, you know, people are obviously very quick to blame the goaltending. And I get it. You know, Casey to Smith has been very inconsistent this season. that's not, you know, a surprise here or anything.

But, you know, you look at overall five on five, the Penguins lost the battle in shot attempts, only had 40% of the scoring chances, 40% of the high danger chances, only 33% of the expected goals. If you go to all situations, Penguins lost the battle and shot attempts as well, only had 36% of the scoring chances,

36% of the high danger chances, and 35% of the expected goals. That's not going to win any games in this league. I don't care if you're playing the columnist blue jackets against the Anaheim Ducks, the Arizona Coyotes, Chicago, even the Chicago Blackhaws. Maybe you can get away with it against them because they're icing probably one of the worst lineups I've ever seen in my life. But against probably any other team, you're not going to get away with that.

Penguins just looked brutal in this game offensively, defensively, the power play, penalty kill, goaltending, everything about their game stunk on Saturday. And, you know, I'm not really super upset about it because they got the four points to start the road trip. You know, they beat the Predators, a team they should beat, they beat the Tampa Bay Lightning a game that, you know, no one probably, not many people, I think, expected them to win, but they were able to still win it. Yes, it is annoying that they had another chance to really bury a playoff contender. They didn't do it, but the Penguins still have very good math right now. They, in terms of the, you know, the battle for the

wild card spots, penguins have the best odds to get wild card one. They have it. Going into today, Money puck had them 88% to get in the playoffs. Some people may think it's a little bit high, but look at the math, look at their schedule down the stretch, 11 of their final 20 plus games here are against non-playoff teams. That factors into it. So I'm not really super worried about them after this loss. Though it is a little concerning that Penguins play like a much different team in front of Casey to Smith than they do in front of Tristan Jari. This was actually backed up by Adam Grech. So pro-hawk, well, he used to work for pro-hog. He does good stuff for Penford, the athletic and bleach report.

This was very, very interesting. I'm giving him the full credit here. Because even he looked into it. So the Penguins, they only have a 451, say, percentage when Casey DeSmith is the goalie of record this season. When Trishon Jari is in net, that's, it's, their Penguins record, 693 winning percentage. And as Adam notes, Tristan Jari is not having a ridiculous season here. I mean, he's what, 915, 916, has only saved two goals above expected this season.

But the fact of the matter is they play so much better in front of their starter. I have to think it's probably because they feel like they have to make that extra play for DeSmith because they can't rely on him to make the saves that Jari can. whereas regards with Jari, you know, they can simplify a little bit. They know he's going to be there to be their rock and all that stuff. And Adam took those numbers and compared it to all of some of the other teams around the league. So in terms of point percentage, $6.93 for the Penguins, $451 for the backups. That is a minus 242 points percentage.

That's the largest one in the league, the biggest negative gap in point differential from their starting goalie to their backup goalie. Detroit, 590 for their starter, 361 for their backup. Dallas 704, 500, New Jersey, 785 to 596, Seattle, 689 to 500. You get my drift here, right? Even the Rangers, 67 for E. Gorses-Sorkek, and their 500 win, Halakplaced. Carolina, 833 with their starter, 679 with their backups like Ranta and Peorcochecoff. Even Colorado, 651, 500, Boston, 878, 760. That actually,

just, you know, Boston's something else. But just look, that is how bad the backup goaltending position has cost the Penguins this season. I was okay with bringing to Smith back because, you know, look at the other options. It was like, you know, some of the other options were just kind of the same. But in hindsight, it almost feels like they should have almost went with another option because they are getting killed whenever it's to Smith or in the rare appearances. from Dustin Tokarski this season.

They've also gotten killed when he's been in the net as well. That just goes to show, you know, outside of those core players, Tristan Jari is the most important player to this team. He is the only shot they have when it comes to somehow making a deep run in a stand-like a playoffs. If he is not playing up to par or if he is not healthy, they are not going anywhere. And they may not go anywhere,

even if he's in the lineup. Trust me, there'll be underdogs against whoever they play if they make the playoffs. But they need him for the rest of this season. I read this from Josh Yoey today.

They have a, if I can pull this up here on my, on my phone. I have the, I should have done this earlier if I can do this here. Okay. If you look at how many starts.

The Penguins have recorded at least a point in 24 of their 31, in 24 of Jari's 31 starts this season. His record's not even that good. It's not. It's really, it's 19 and 7 and 5. That's a 114 point pace, which is awesome. But still 19 wins, 12 losses overall, but still 24 of 31 games. That's good.

They need him to stay healthy. Saturday he was sick. you know, that's fine, that's whatever, but man may need him to stay healthy. They need to have DeSmith start as little as possible here down the stretch. And I'm not trying to say that to go after DeSmith. I'm saying that because Tristan has not played that much the season. Last year is a little bit different because it seemed like he was starting every game

and he was getting gassed and then he got hurt. This season, it's only been 31 games. Penguins have 20 plus games left. He needs to start the majority of these down the stretch if they want to make the playoffs. It's really as simple as that. I've, you know, trust me, it's weird that they play a lot better in front of him than they do to Smith. It should be just the same for both. But for some reason, they play better in front of their starter.

So that's going to be something to really monitor here down the stretch. And, you know, again, if they had maybe had a better backup going into this season, who knows what they would be. as I was saying, who knows where they would be right now in terms of the standings. So I wanted to get that off my chest a little bit here to start the show. But yeah, they laid an egg. It's whatever. You move on.

Game coming up tomorrow and night. We're going to preview that coming up. But first, is Mike Sullivan making a big mistake with potentially benching POJ for the Columbus game? I'm going to have your answer for that coming up right after this commercial break. But before we get to that, it is time to talk about athletic greens. Our next partner has a product that usually every day I started taking athletic greens. Because I didn't have time in the morning. I want a better gut health.

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insurance. All right. We're back in this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. We're going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow the shows Twitter at Eleanor Penguins. And thank you all so much for making this your first listen of the day. So Penguins practiced at PBJ Paints Arena today. Everyone was very sake, Jake Gensel, but do not worry. Jake will be in the lineup on Tuesday. Had a little bit of a maintenance day. That usually just means that player is just a little banged up, but he's, I'm sure he'll be fine.

But we saw the lines today. Hine moved up with Crosby and Raquel, who moved back down, Zuckermalk and Russ. Drew O'Connor with Mikhail Grainlin and Jeff Carter, Ryan Hailing with Nick Menino, and Josh Archibald would not expect to see paling in this game. It was mostly non-contacted at practice today. Rood is when he's going to be available. Defensively is where we got it a little different. Ryan June with Chris LaTang,

Marcus Peders, him and Jeff Petrie, Demetri Kulikov with Jan Ruda, P.O. Joseph skating on the extra pairing with Chad Ruehle. By all indications, that means P.O. Joseph, who has been very good all year, is going to be a healthy scratch for Dmitri Kulokov. and I to say that I disagree with that

would be a big understatement Pio Joe I know who I would take out of the lineup P.O. Joseph is not that guy. His defensive metrics, okay, they've been not bad this season, but offensively as where he has really shining. A lot of people didn't expect him to.

You know, you look at his numbers overall this season. He ranks in the 89th percentile in terms of defensemen for even strength offense, 68th percentile for finishing, 93rd percentile for primary assist per 60 minutes. It means only 7 percent of his peers rank better than him. 68 percentile for goals per 60 also draws a lot of penalties. Even strength defense, it does go away a little bit. So 15th percentile in terms of that.

So a lot of his peers are better defensively. But, you know, he's still played really well in his first initial season. And I get it. You didn't, excuse me, you didn't get Kulukov to put him on the bench. It's fine. I think he could potentially be, you know, a little bit better than what he showed in Anaheim. You know, he was playing on the worst defensive team in the league this year. The duck stank.

He was also playing on the top pairing. That's just, that's just not the way to go here, people. But when it comes to this team, if you are taking somebody out of this lineup, it needs to be Brian Dimlin. That said, I know why Mike Sullivan is not taking Brian Dunwin out. Number one, loyalty. He's very loyal to him. He was here when Sullivan was originally brought up from Wilkesbury

to be the full-time head coach when Mike Johnston was fired. He won the two cops with him. He's played a lot of hockey for this team. That I think is the main reason why he won't take him out of lineup, especially on the top area. number two he has played a little bit better as of late so i don't you know some of those mistakes have been have been cleaned up a little bit so i think that's another reason and i think a third reason you know p o j again you know he doesn't have like that experience that other players would

have where you know they're not going to come out of the lineup those are my top reasons for why it's not ryan an able again it should be dumelin but it's unfortunate that it's not and This just goes to show how weird, I guess, the Penguins' player evaluation has been, you know, this season. I mean, in terms of all the defensemen this season, you know, at the top seven at least, in terms of expected goals, Chris Latang, first on the team, 56.5% of the on ice expected goals when he's on the ice. Second, when Pio Joseph is on ice, the Penguins have 56% of the expected goals. Brian Dumlin, in terms of that, is seventh among all Penguins' defense under the 41.8% expected goals rate.

It's dumb. It is stupid that he is not coming out of the lineup. Point blank. And this has nothing to do with, oh, well, I'm sure people will say, like, you've got to have a balanced decore. You don't want any more offense than defense. I get those kind of thoughts. I do.

But by taking POJ out, you lose offense. Because at that point, I'm sorry. Chris LaTang and Jeff Petrie are the only two defensemen that are going to bring actual offense to the table. Marcus Pedersson, okay, okay, he can be, he can a bit as well, but it's not as much as P.O. Joseph, not this season at least. Brian, Duma, you're never going to get offensive with him. Yon Ruda, you're not going to get offense from him either.

Dmitzukulokov, you'll get some stouty defensive work. Again, he's a left-handed version of Yon Ruda. I know why they got him. They want better defensive awareness in their own zone, and they feel like he can do that job. But by adding that, you're not. also sacrificing more offense from your blue-in-line, which I don't like that. With the top six that you have right now, minus Kulikov, you have a healthy balance with Pio-Joseph, Chris Lange, and Jeff Petrieg providing the offense, and then Brian Dumlin,

Jan Ruta, and Marcus Pedersen providing the defense, and Pedersen can provide a little bit of offense as well. Now, if you substitute Dumlin, it gets even better because Kulikov can provide you that defense. So can Yom-Ruda, and so can Marcus Peders. So, you know, I'm sure this is going to be flip-flop back and forth throughout the season, but that doesn't mean I have to like it. I don't. I very much disagree with Mike Sullivan on this.

I disagree with the gentleman injured and the president of hockey operations on this. And I think it's dumb. I just don't see a reason to, you know, saw a young player's development just to put a veteran in there who, I'm sorry, has really not had that good of a year. and while also in the same time keeping another veteran in there who has probably who has had the worst season of his career date. It just, it boggles my mind. It's a very dumb player evaluation process.

I'm not a fan of it. And, you know, it's just dumb. And I'm sure people are going to say, like, oh, it's one game, it's one game. No, like, it's not one name. Like, Mike Sullivan, I'm a. as big of a fan as him as, you know, there is. But he's made some really weird deployments this season. He continually has iced Jeff Carter in the final minutes of regulation in tied games.

He's iced that line with three minutes left when you're down by a goal. He's iced Brian Dumont out on six on five situations, which makes no sense. Saying with Jeff Carter, that blind loyalty is not right to me. I don't care how long you've been here. you're not playing well not going to be in the lineup that should be that should really be as simple as that remember when

John Marino when he came up here and surprised everyone he said yeah he was playing so well in camp and preseason so we had to trade at the time Eric Kubrainsen I'm not saying he has to trade by you can't trade by and do one now but why can't he get out of the lineup I'm sorry I don't care if he's playing top of minutes POJ's outplayed him this season

so you know definitely a little bit I'm hopeful that he'll be back in the lineup, you know, later this week into the weekend with some more big important games coming up. But yeah, definitely not a fan of that, to say the least. What I would do for the playoffs, honestly, at this point, I would run Kulikov with whoever, maybe bump up Patterson to Latang, Kulokov with Petrie. And then if you want to do Joseph and Ruta, you could do that. That's what I would do. I wouldn't even have Brian Nguer.

Brian Duhl in my top six. I mean, well, if Kulikov plays well, I should say that. If he plays well, I would have him be in there over Duman full time. But if he doesn't, just keep Duman in there again. I argued this past weekend that I'm not really sure if Kulokov is better than any of their six defensemen. I still don't know if he really is. Again, the only argument that you could probably have is Brian Dumlin. But if he plays well and looks to be playing better than Dumo is,

that's the change that I would make heading in the playoffs if this team does get in. But that wraps up the second segment. Coming up to end the show, going to preview the game on Tuesday and why these are two points that the penguins need to have as they are playing one of the worst teams in the league. But before we get to that, if you're looking for a delicious treat,

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You're going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes, follow the shows, Twitter, at Norsal Pemans. And, of course, thank you all so much for making this your first listen of the day. So Penguins Blue Jackets, Tuesday night at PbG Paints Arena. I have to see if we're going to go to the game. Have not fully decided yet. But the third meeting between these two teams and the Penguins have won the previous two, both in pretty blowout fashion. Jackets come into this game as one of the worst teams in the league.

The Penguins have to get their two points here. The schedule this week sets them up to get some major wins. They have the blue jackets on Tuesday. Massive game against the Islanders on Thursday. You have to win that game, especially to try to bury them a little bit. Flyers on Saturday. Rangers on Sunday. Then next week, two more games against the Rangers.

A lot of Metro games coming up here. Penguins have played really bad against the Metro this season. They've lost, what, eight or nine in a row against this division, which is ridiculous because they usually play very well against the Metro. It's time to get back on track. in win games you are supposed to win, especially against the team like Blue Jackets and a team like the Flyers on Saturday,

Penguins also have a five-game homestand starting on Tuesday. This is where you've got to make a move in the standings. I will also say six out of their next eight are at PPGy Paints Arena. Again, perfect opportunity for this team to keep the good times wrong, maybe one for the last five,

and then playing some really good hockey as of late. Let's get into the lineup from what you can expect against the Blue Jackets. Johnny Goodro, Boone Jenner, and then Karel Marchenko, Kent Johnson, Jack Roselich, Patrick Lone, Eric Robinson, Cole Cillinger, Matthew, Olivier, Liam Fowdy, Lane Peterson, and then Emil Benstrom.

Obviously, the one guy to look out for is Johnny Goodrow. He's having another very good season. Yes, the jokes write themselves that he signs with Columbus and the team is already really bad. But, you know, that's going to be a team that's looking to get better as soon as next season. He can score any time. Patrick Lone has a ridiculous release.

He's having a decent season. Boone Jenner has given the Penguin fits in the past. Defensive parings, you know, Tim Bernie, Eric Ranssen, Nick Blankenberg, Andrew Peake, Adam Boakwkwest, are down there, a really bad defensive court. I mean, it also doesn't help that.

Zach Wrenski is done for the year. Jake Bean is out. Shown Coralli, Justin Danforth. You know, they have some pretty serious injuries right now that the Penguins should be able to destroy that defensive group. And then, goaltending-wise, Michael Hutchinson and Elvis Merzleekins are the goals because of him of Jonas Corpusallel. was ended up traded to the Los Angeles Kings.

I assume that Merseleekins is going to go. I was trying to see, I don't think Columbus, are they playing tonight on Monday night? No, they are not. So I would assume it'll be Merseley against. He started the first two games against the Penguins. Hasn't really played that well. Penguins should have a goalie matchup in their favor

because I think Tristan Jarney is going to start. I mean, I don't think he's sick at this point. Probably just had a little bit of a cold. Penguins have dominated. the recent stretch of games against the Blue Jackets. 17 and 3 and 1 in their last 21 games against them. They've also won seven straight games overall against the Blue Jackets dating back to December of 2019.

A win would also ensure the Penguins will win the season series with the Blue Jackets. They've only lost the season series once in the Jackets that came in 2014-15. Sydney Crosby is a show of the Jackets in his career, 48 points in 36 career games. They've also scored three or more goals in five of their last. last 18 games against the Blue Jackets.

And Trishon Jari, another fun stat for you all. 6 and 1 versus Columbus, 1.6-5 goals against average and a 9-44, say, percentage. This has been a big brother, little brother rivalry for a long time. Penguins, they don't just have to show up here. They have to put together a solid 60 minutes, get the power play working. The home road split is something that I will never understand. On the road, the power play is like 6 to 8 percent. At home, it's about 15 to 16 percent, something like.

like that. So it's still a little bit of a low average at home, but it's a lot better. You've got to get that back on track. Just the special teams in general, I think you need to be a lot better. Tristan Darry needs to continue his play up against the jackets and, you know, would really like to see Jake Gensel get back to scoring. You look at the numbers and he's at a point for game this season. So you're like, oh, okay, usually that's not bad.

But he hasn't looked right. And I think all of you probably recognize that he's not scoring like he used to, even when he's getting chances, he's missing wide open nets. I don't know if it's been an injury that he's been battling with all year. I know he had the maintenance day on Monday. Something just doesn't seem right with him. I really camp on my finger on it, but I would like to see a big game from him for this one if the Penguins want to win this game.

Curious to see how Kulokov fits in, assuming that he does draw in. I think he will. Obviously, when I talk about in my second segment. You know, Penguins just have to control the game at five on five. You know, that's obviously where most of the game is played. Limit the chances that could row in line they will get. They're on separate lines. And I mean, that's really all I have in terms of winning this game against the jackets.

It's two points they need to get. You win that game. You potentially go one point up on the Islanders heading into Thursday's huge game in PPG-Paints Arena, a one where you're going to have to win. The Islanders are still without Matt Barsell right now. This is a big opportunity this week for this team, especially if they want to make the playoffs. this is where you want to make your move.

A lot of home games here to start the month. A lot of home games in general for this whole month. Let's see if they can start off, start off in a good way for this homestand. Tuesday night at PPGy Paints Arena against a bluejacket's team that has been really, and I mean, really bad this season. So that does it for this episode of the Locktime Penguins podcast.

Really appreciate all of you listening. I'll be back with another episode for you all tomorrow night after the game against jackets. We'll fully recap that game. and that get you set for Thursdays game against the Islanders. That will be for Wednesday. But thank you all so much for listening. Hope you all with great rest of your Monday.

And I'll talk with you all on Tuesday.