Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Is there any way for Jeff Carter to be better for the Penguins next season?

Episode Date: May 4, 2023

Happy Star Wars Day! In honor of that, Hunter first discusses one of the Empire's most sinister agents...yes, Jeff Carter. Pretty good, no? Huner goes over Carter's season in review as it was an absolute mess. He dives into the numbers and how his counting stats would maybe look OK if he were a fourth-line center for every game but that's not what the Penguins are paying him to be. Hunter looks at how these numbers are probably what you can expect from him again next season unless he gets even more washed. He also pleads for Mike Sullivan to stop using him in high-leverage situations since Carter is not cut out for that. He's not Patrice Bergeron or Anze Kopitar and never has been! Hunter also argues that the Penguins need a true third-line center for next season and beyond since Carter can't handle those duties anymore, either. After that, Hunter looks at some players who could bounce back for the Penguins next season even though the list isn't very long. Finally, he discusses another option in goal that the team could look at, especially if he comes out of the players' assistance program like Jakub Vrana did. All of that, plus much more is on this episode of Locked On Penguins.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNHL for $20 off your first purchase.eBay MotorsFor parts that fit, head to eBay Motors and look for the green check. Stay in the game with eBay Guaranteed Fit. eBay Motors dot com. Let’s ride. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.Athletic GreensTo make it easy, Athletic Greens is going to give you a FREE 1-year supply of immune-supporting Vitamin D AND 5 FREE travel packs with your first purchase. All you have to do is visit athleticgreens.com/NHLNETWORKFanDuelMake Every Moment More. Don’t miss the chance to get your No Sweat First Bet up to ONE THOUSAND DOLLARS in Bonus Bets when you go to FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Well, again, happy Thursday. May the 4th be with you. Happy National Star Wars Day to everyone celebrating out there. Maybe we'll get some cool news. Yes, I continue to be such a Star Wars nerd. I just look at my bookshelf to, and for those who watch on YouTube, look on a bookshelf to the right. It is virtually all Star Wars books. Most of them I have read. But, of course, this is a Pittsburgh Penguin show for today's episode. We're going to continue on season reviews with Jeff Carter. And yeah, I think you all know where that's going. maybe there'll be a surprise or two in there.

We'll also get into players who I think could bounce back. I know just looking at some bounce back candidates for next season, how many the penguins have, plus a potential goaltending option if this player is cleared to play. Next season right now, it's a little bit murky, but it could be an option for a team that is currently playing right now. So all that plus so much more coming up right after this drop. You're locked on penguins.

Your daily podcast on the podcast on the. Pittsburgh Penguins, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello, welcome back to another episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm of course your host, Hunter Hodes. Now that will follow me on Twitter, Hunter Hodes, follow the shows, Twitter, at L-O-S for Penguins. And, of course, thank you all so much for making this your first list of the day. We're being available on all platforms. So let's jump right into it, our second bottom six players.

We get a season review for this past season. is everyone's favorite, you know, just whipping bag, you know, whatever, you know, whatever words you want to use to describe Jeff Carter, because, yes, whipping, whipping, bag, whipping boy, I should say, it's just screwing that up. That was embarrassing. Jeff Carter doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that he did struggle this season, but didn't have 13 goals, 29.79 games. That's still a little bit step down for where he was last year,

and he had 19 goals and 45 points in 76 games. I don't usually like looking at plus minus. I think it's a very flawed stat. You can look at a whole bunch of other stats before he gets a plus minus, but he was a minus 16 this year. That is horrendous. That is his lowest plus minus year since 2019, 20 when he was at minus 21. Again, very low-hanging fruit stat to use,

but I thought it was relevant to put out there because, you know, I'm not surprised that he was a minus 16, considering that Mike Sullivan really screwed him over with some deployment. I think he maybe had a little bit of a better season. Obviously, it weren't for Sullivan, thinking that he's a prime, but he's Burjardt over here still. But, you know, the county stands, you know, for a fourth-line center, 13 goals, 30 points, that's fine.

But they were using him as a third-line center. I'm sorry. 13 goals, 30 points. That is not good enough for me as a third-line center. It's just, it's, it's not. And his underwings this season, played in 79 games. 833 minutes of ice time. When he was on the ice, the Penguins only had 47% of the shot attempts.

A little higher than it was last year, well, it was 47.0%. This year it's 47.4%. So kind of the same. But this has been a downward trajectory for the last couple of years. In 2020, 2021 with the Penguins, he had 53% of the shot attempts. But after that, 49%, 47% and 47% for this year. 24 goals for on ice 41 goals against for 36.9% of the actual goals for the expected goal share when Carter was on ice the thing was only had 49% of that scoring chance wise the penguins only had

48% of those high danger chances 46.28% of those and then 13 high danger goals for 26 high danger goals against that is pathetic and then he only shot 5.7% this season so yeah the underlyings they match the eye test with how brutal he was and again I will say this. A good chunk of it is his fault, but I also do put a little bit of blame on Mike Sullivan for still thinking that he is a prime defensive player. I don't know if Sullivan was trying to just stick it to Ron Hext all the time by just giving a nice F you to him. Like, oh, you're going to give me this contract. Oh, I'm not going to put him out there in high leverage situations. But it was very weird to see him out there in every high leverage situation, especially down the stretch,

when they were defending leads. For example, you know, that game against the Islanders, they blew that two-gole lead with less than six minutes left. He's out there trying to ice the game. Don't know why. It honestly all started earlier in the season. Now, first, a blown lead against Montreal. Remember, they were up to nothing going into the third period. Havs score will you make it 2-1.

But, you know, you get down to the nitty-gritty, less than three minutes left. They pull the goalie. You know, Carter's out there, no-man's land, and the halves tied up thanks to Cole Field when he was healthy. I don't know what he's doing there. You know, you have the game against the Blues, excuse me, late in this season, remember,

where the Blues had just tied the game. The Penguins have been winning the whole time. Jordan Benning team is standing on his head. And in the final minute of regulation, Carter's out there for some reason. It's like, what are we doing here? So I'm not blaming him for that. I'm also not blaming him for signing that contract. If you are in your late 30s and you get offered that kind of deal for two years

and you're making over $3 million, hell, yeah, I'm going to take that contract. Like, you'll be a fool, not to, people. Come on. So, again, it's on Ron Hextall for him giving him that contract in the first place. He was the first player that was signed during that very important offseason last year. Can you believe that still? Can you believe that?

It's just crazy to me. It's absolutely nuts. But, yeah, I mean, his play on my ice this season, his defensively, his offensive metric stunk offensively. I mean, sure, he had 13 goals, but a couple of those really came towards the least age of the season. I will say his play did improve a little bit down the stretch as we got closer to the playoffs, even though the Penguins didn't make it.

I think if he can play like that and actually score a little bit more next season, you know, that deal is not going to be as bad. Obviously, in a perfect world. He's not on the team next year, but we don't live in that situation. You know, it's, you know, it's useless to talk about him not being on the team next season because he is going to be on the team next season, unless you can convince him to somehow wave that no trade clause, no move clause,

that's not going to happen, though. So he's going to be here, and he's probably going to play this last final year of the Penguins before he walked up and in the sunset probably retires, to be honest. But in terms of a role for next season, assuming he is on the team, again, probably will be, you probably need to have him on the fourth line.

He can't be your third line. That's another thing I'm looking forward to for this off season with the new front office coming in. they need to go out and get a new third line center for this team. I haven't touched on that enough because I've been focusing on the goaltending and getting a new number one, number two left-handed defensemen to play with Latang or Petrie. But they need to go out there and get a new third line center.

The answer to that position on the roster right now, for the roster, excuse me, the answer to that position is not on the roster, the current roster. It's not down the minors. It is on another team. or it's going to be a free agent. That's just the reality of situation. I'm sorry. Carter, his numbers were terrible this season.

They got a little bit better when you put him on the fourth line. You have to shelter him. That's the only way this is going to work for next season is if he is shelter on the fourth line and maybe play some minutes with, I don't know, Drew Connor. Maybe you get him away from him. I don't know. Whoever you put with Carter is going to be tough,

but, you know, he can still provide, I guess, a little bit of value on faceoffs. I'm going to buy into that that much, though. gives you maybe a little bit more value on the PK. I'd still choose a whole bunch of other players over him, though. But he needs to be playing not many minutes a night. If I had it my way, obviously he wouldn't be on the team next season, but we don't live in that reality.

He's going to be on the team. He needs to be the fourth line center or whatever. But the team needs a third line center. He's not the answer to that. And in terms of production, I'm looking forward to next season, If he can have that kind of production for a fourth line role, I think I'm mainly, I'm not, I guess, how do I want to say it? I guess I'm more okay with it if he's getting sheltered minutes

and he still provides almost 15 goals in 30, 35 points. That's not terrible for a fourth line player. But in terms of what they're paying him to be on the third line, you know, that's not good enough. But I still want to see, you know, again, I want to see him have that kind of production, if not a little bit better for next season. season. You know, it's going to be hard for him to bounce back, I guess, in a way, because he just, he looks cooked. But, you know, four fine rolls on looking at for him next season. But he was dreadful this year. Didn't really do much of anything. It was very weird how the coaching staff would always defend him after every turn. Maybe with a new front office coming in, the answers will be a little bit different. But, you know, who knows? But that's my season review in terms of Jeff Carter. Let me know what you all expect him for next season. Do you think he can put up the same?

word production, would you have him on a four-point role? Do you also think this team needs a new third-line center and that they cannot play him in that role? Let me know down the comments. You can also send me a DM on social media and all of that. So that wraps up this first segment. Coming up in the second segment, we're going to get into players who I feel like could have bounce back seasons next year. There's not many of them, but there's a couple of them that I do think could have it just

based on how they played this season. But before we get into that, if you're looking for a delicious snack, but don't want all the sugar and calories, then you need the best tasting protein bar ever. Bilt. You have to try this. If you're like me, you want to make healthier snack choices, but you don't want to compromise on taste. I've got just a thing for you. Built bars and Bill Pups, Bill Pups, Bill bars are healthy and taste amazing. Seriously, they taste so amazing, you won't even think they're good for you. You have to try this. And what makes them so good? Well, for SARS, they are covered in 100% real dark chocolate.

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And of course, thank you so much for making this, your first lesson in the day. So this one be a little bit short in terms of players who I think could bounce back for next season. You know, it's just when you look at the top six for this team, you know, I think everyone performed at the level you would expect them to. I mean, maybe Ricardo Raquel, 30 goals, maybe some people didn't see that coming.

Jason Zucker, some people didn't see that coming. Still 25-30 goals. Sings Gino played the 82 games. Brian Rust, I guess we can start there. I already touched on his season review. If he can bounce back a little bit at 5-on-5 next season and on the power play of his shooting percentage, I think that would be huge for this team.

But overall, the top stage doesn't really have much to, you know, think about when it comes to bouncing back. A player with who I do, and we'll get to his season review a little later on in the all-season that I do think could bounce. back is Jeff Petrie. It doesn't take a rocket scientist, you know, to see that, you know, he underwhelmed this season.

It was, it was not the prettiest, to say the least. You know, his underlyings this year, to say the least, five goals, 31.61 games, counting stats-wise, underlyings, again. So when he was on that, Spengland, did have 51% of the shot at TEMS. but I was still very high on the trade when he came over for Matheson. I thought that he was going to provide a really nice one-two punch for the penguins on the right side of their defense. I was wrong.

I don't think he was bad per se. I just thought he was very underwhelming. And sure, was he a bit banged up at times? Yes, but even when he was healthy for a good stretch of the season, he didn't really wow me. I think that's partly because he's on the wrong side of 30. This is usually when the play for defensemen starts to go down the hill a little bit. He just didn't really do much of anything for this season.

I expected him to contribute a bit more offensively and especially defensively. He didn't do either one. But, no, he's still under contract for the next several years, like $6.25 million. That's tough. I mean, I don't expect him to go anywhere. You know, you could potentially have him on the trade market, but I think you're going to have to pay draft picks to see him walk away. but then you have to decide who to replace him with because I don't want Yon Ruda taking second pairing minutes.

I think that would be a little ludicrous on the Penguins part to expect him to just take those minutes and then who's behind Yon Ruda, assuming he's on the team. Mark Freeman. Mark, I know, who else is down there in Wilkesbury and stuff? Chab Riedel, you know, he can play on the right side as well. But I don't know, man. And not the greatest.

So I expected him to be on the team next season, but, you know, he is a bounce back handed. I just don't know how much you can expect at this point, you know, during his career. Already touched on Carter. You know, if he can have a similar type season, maybe add a little bit more offense for next year. That'd be awesome.

But he's almost 40 now. You know, how much do you truly expect him to play better for next season? You know, I think that's, you know, my biggest thing when it comes to that. You know, if you want to put this player on it, this, this might be a little, you know, how was it? I guess in a way, if you want to put Chris LaTang, that's fair too, because his season was a little bit up and down. I still think he had a pretty good season overall, but with a full, healthy, fully healthy off season, I think he could really show off next season even though he's getting a little bit older. you know, he's hopefully not dealing with, you know, a lot of stuff off the ice with, you know,

another stroke or some another family member passing away. He just really went through the ringer this season and I felt horrible. I just never thought he, he just got his, you know, his feet off the ground and you can see that. Again, still had a pretty good season, but not a season that maybe I and a lot of other people envisioned that he would have. Other than that, there's really not too many other bounceback candidates on this team. People may, if Mikhail Graham's on the team, people will say him, I am sorry. I don't really think you can bounce back after having one goal in 21 games for your team. It's just, that's no.

And honestly, he shouldn't even be on the team because, again, when we get to a season review, he had one garbage time goal in 21 games. He can't really play defensively. He can't shoot, can't shoot well enough. His passing is the only good part of this game, but I didn't really notice that. during his time here in Pittsburgh. They should be trying to save that cap space whenever a new GM is hired. So, you know, I'm not really looking at towards that.

So, you know, when you really comes down to it, there's not too many balanced back candidates, but, you know, there are still a couple, you know, when it comes to Brian Ross, Crystal Tang, Jeff Carter, if you even want to consider him in there. If they do bring back to Zanjari, you can throw him into there as well. but do you really expect him to be back at this point?

I think I would rather just move on and try to get someone via the trade market. But if he does come back, I think it's going to be a short-term deal. Outside of that, you know, I'm looking at the defense. I mean, maybe Chad Rweedle, I think you could add him to the next. Casey DeSmith, though his numbers this season, they were kind of on par with where he was last season the year before. In terms of DeSmith, I just want to see him be more consistent next season just because, you know, when I was talking about with Danny Shiree earlier this week,

You know, he has so many of these starts where he's so good and looks like nothing is going to get past him. And then he'll have another start where it's like, what the hell was that? So I just want to see a little more consistency from him for next season. I guess if you want to call that bouncing back, that's here. Chatter-Reedle, I thought he was not nearly as good this season as it was last year. His underlines kind of went down a little bit. His accounting stats are going to be what they are every year. He's not going to put up too many points.

but still I thought his play away from the puck was not good. He was taking too many penalties in the late stages of the games that were costing the Penguins points in the standings. I do think especially because the Penguins, they're not going to stay healthy next season. They almost never do. You know, considering that he's probably going to be on the team, obviously he is under contract.

I would think, you know, he is in line for a bounceback as well as like the number seven or number eight defensemen on this team. So those are just my bounceback can. for next season. Let me know what you all think. Do you think anyone else should be on this list? Do you agree with mine? Do you think that some of these players will not be balancing back next year?

Let me know under the comment. Send me DMs as well. I figure this will be like a cool little segment to discuss who I think could be potentially on the list to bounce back next season after some really rough 2020, 2022, 2023 campaigns. And, you know, I wanted to discuss it. It's a fun one to discuss just because, you know, there are a lot of players that play well this season, but there are also a good chunk that I think this team will need more of next season,

especially if these players are on the team. So that will do it for this episode of the Lockdown Penguins. Not this episode, this segment of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. Coming up to end the show, we're going to get into a goalie option that a listener actually set in this morning and why he could make sense if he is allowed to play next season. And it's not, you know, he didn't really, you know, do anything wrong. But, you know, he is right now. He is in the players assistant program.

He's on a personal leave from his team. So that's all coming up right after this commercial break. All right. I'm back here in this episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I am your host, Honor Hodes. Remember follow me on Twitter. Hunter Hodes. Follow the show's Twitter elders of Penguins.

And of course, thank you all so much for making it. It's your first list in a day. We're being available on all platforms. So, um, A listener sent me this in this morning and talked about a goaltender option for next season. And it's a bit murky right now, obviously, just because he's not really playing. But he sent me Spencer Knight of the Florida Panthers. This came out a couple months ago, this was back in February, so a little over two months ago.

When Spencer Knight, he is in the NHL-N-HLPA's player assistance program. He's taking a leave of absence from the team. And as the description says, it's available to all players and their families. it aids those who are going through mental health, substance abuse, or other issues. And there's, you know, he's not believed to be dealing with drug or alcohol-related issues. So this could, I know, I'm not trying to speculate anything. It could be mental health.

You know, I don't really know what he's going through right now. You know, he's continuing to get paid while receiving treatment. He's going to return to the club, when clear for on-ice competition by the program administrator. So this is similar to what Jacob Orana went through. Remember, when he was in Detroit, they reassigned him to their quarantine. They put him on waivers. he eventually came out of the player's assistant program

and he was traded by Detroit to the St. Louis Blues and he ended up playing really well. And I'm happy for him because he's always been a really good talent when he's on the ice. It was really sad, just unfortunate to see a great talent, you know, not playing. But, you know, he got the care that he needed. And I think right now he showed, you know,

he showed during the late stages in the blues that, you know, he can still very much play. the same can be said for Spencer Knight. You know, this quote came from Florida Hockey now when he came in and Jordan Newman. So this was Knight's agent. He said we're all concerned about Spencer's well-being. The organization has been outstanding and cooperated every step of the way where you're looking forward to him and returning to play in the near future. So I'm just hoping everything is okay.

And assuming that he is fine and that he gets cleared to return from the player's assistance program, I think he could be an option to no trade for because, you know, look at the Panthers Goaltending options. Sergey Barovsky, he's not going away with that contract. They have Alex Lyon, who really came up out of nowhere this season. I think he's a he's shown that he can be at least a perfectly fine adequate backup. And honestly, Knight's numbers, you know, they're not too terrible when he's, when he's playing. You know, he played 21 games this season, 9-8-1 record.

9-0-1-7-8 goals against average. But before that, you know, when he made his debut in 2020, 2020-21, only played four games. 9-19 save percentage. Last year, played 32 games. 908, 7-0-7-9 goals against average. He only has 57 games to his name, 49, starts 32 and 17 and 6 with a 906 say percentage. So he is above league average.

I think you would need to see what he can do in a lot. full season. I believe his cap hit is, I believe it's around a little over four minutes. I can actually double check that real quickly here for the Panthers. If I can, let me try to get this here. He is under contract for next season. If I can just find this here. So yeah, it's going to be up to 4.5 starting next season for the next three years.

That would be a big commitment for the Penguins to make, especially if he is clear to come out of the players' assistance program. It's an option. I don't know how good of one it is because, again, there's only 57 games to his name, and it's a big cap hit. You'll be committing a decent amount of money, but it's still potentially a decent option on the trade market

if you don't want to bring back to Tristan Dari. But again, this all determines, determines this all hedges on the fact that he is going to be cleared to come out of the players' assistance program. Because, again, I hope everything is okay. I don't know what's wrong. He's receiving care. you know, assuming, you know, that he does get cleared and it's nothing like brutally bad

or anything that he's never going to play again and stuff. You know, he's definitely an option. The Penguins in this new management staff, they could look at, to say the least. Again, numbers aren't bad. You know, contracts, the only thing that I know, it's maybe giving me a little bit pause because three more years, 4.5 million for someone who's only played 57 games. That's a little risky, if you ask me. But, you know, it's also risky to bring back Tristan Jarrett, considering

that he can't say healthy even if it's on, you know, a one or two year deal. Even if you bring back Tristan, you probably can't bring back to Smith because you just, you can't run that team back, you know, for a fourth straight season. So I wanted to put another goal option out there, again, assuming that he is allowed to play next season and that he has been receiving care, that he feels good enough to come out of this program and be bound to playing all. Again, his well-being is the utmost importance right now. I really do hope that he is okay, just like how I was really rooting for Jacob Brana when he entered.

And I'll root for anyone that enters that, no player's assistance program. But let me know what you all think about that as a goaltiner option. If he is clear to come out of it, do you think he would be a good goalie for the Penguins for the next few years? Are you concerned about his contract? If he gets clear to come out, let me know what you all think down in the comments. And you also send me DMs and all that. But that'll do for this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I really appreciate all of you listening slash watching.

We'll be back with another episode for you all on Friday, on Cinco de Mayo, to wrap up this week. We continue to do it every day episodes through the first week or two of July. I know, it's a quiet time. That does not mean there's nothing to talk about. There's always stuff to discuss when it comes to this wonderful ice hockey franchise we had in the Steel City. But again, thank you all so much for listening slash watching. Really appreciate it. I'll be out with another episode for you all on Friday.

I'll talk to you all that. Thank you.