Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - It's one game but let's get some saves!

Episode Date: May 17, 2021

The Pittsburgh Penguins dropped Game 1 against the New York Islanders but Hunter's here to tell you that nothing is lost...yet. Hunter goes over the positives to start the episode and there are a whole bunch of them, including the play of Sidney Crosby. He was ready to go right at the start of the game and didn't let up until the end. Will he continue to win his matchup against Pulock and Pelech? He also touches on the great play from Kris Letang and how Kapanen continues to be opportunistic. Of course, there was the loss and all of it falls on Tristan Jarry. What went wrong with the goals he gave up? Should we expect a bounce-back on Tuesday. Finally, Hunter welcomes Andy MacNeil from VSiNLive onto the show to talk NHL betting and what the lines are looking like for the game tomorrow, and a whole lot more.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You're Locked-on Penguins, your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to this Monday afternoon edition of the Locked on Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodesol. The show's Twitter at L-O underscore Penguin's episode is brought to you by BiltBar. You can go to Billbar.com and use promo code Locked 15, and we'll get 15. percent off your next order. So yes, we are back here another episode as the Penguins. Drop game one to the New York Islanders by a score of four to three in the first overtime.

It looked like it was definitely going to go to double overtime, but then, you know, Tristan Jari, round three, around four, whenever you want to call it, happen. I'm going to break down everything that went wrong and went right for the Penguins in this game during this episode, and we will also have a special guest for the third segment of this episode. I'm just teasing it that he's never been on the show before, but it does have to do with some sports betting and maybe some bets that you could put some wagers on for tomorrow tonight's game.

But let's just get into it right now. Right out of the gate, I thought the Penguins played outstanding. You could see Sid really going after, honestly, Sid in his entire line, excuse me, really go after the Yonanders with everything you had. Pelik and Polack, which is one of the best defensive pairings in the league, really had no match for them.

I think they controlled the Sidline 60% of it. the expected goals when they were on the ice. You could just see five minutes and it was like, okay, this looks a lot different than 2019. I even tweeted this. I'm like, okay, this was not a level that we saw them reach at all during that 2019 series. And I understand that the Islanders do win this game, but I also did pick the Penguins in six games, everyone. You know, in order for the Penguins to win in six games, they got to lose a game or two.

We are going to get to the goaltending in just a sec, but, you know, just to keep talking about Crosby, just an outstanding performance from him. I know Rust and Gensel were a little quiet. Gensel, in particular, had a very scary moment in that first period when Ilius Serochin, for whatever reason, decided to blatantly trip him as he was skating past the net as he tried to corral the puck. Sorokin knew the puck was gone, and he just blatantly tripped him. Gensel went flying into the boards.

He was lucky he didn't injure his surgically repaired shoulder there. That was kind of a low-key, dirty play. I'm glad he got a penalty for it. I mean, you could have honestly given him a double minor for it or even a major. But that was a dangerous play and something that you don't want to see happen in any hockey game. If that were Trishon Jari that did it or another Penguins goal like Casey to Smith, I would have the exact same reaction. That is a garbage Bush League play that has no place in hockey.

I'm just glad that Genswell's okay. Going back to Sid though, gets his 69th career NHL playoff goal, which is a very nice goal with that nice number. That now ties him, I believe, seventh all-time. with Brett Hull for the most points in NHL history in the playoffs. One more, he will be seventh all time by himself, and I think he only needs a few more to be six all time, and I think that would tie Paul Coffey for the six most all-time,

as I'm just going to get the Discord notifications out of here. But, yes, it is slowly but surely climbing even higher on the all-time playoff scoring sheeting. He was locked in last night. He did everything you wanted him to, especially with Evgeny Malkin not playing, We're going to touch on that later on in this episode. But that's what you want to see from your captain.

He's locked in. He's engaged this week off. It definitely did him some good because he was kind of a little inconsistent, I would say, during those last couple weeks of the season. I understand, you know, maybe he was battling a little bit of an injury. But he looked rejuvenated for this one and almost paid off in a big way with a win. And, you know, the Penguins took that two to one lead going into the third period. Freddie Goodro, another awesome positive development, gets his fourth career

playoff goal. That's his fourth career playoff goal in only nine playoff games that he's appeared. Remember, he played all six games against the Penguins in 2017 with Nashville, had three goals in those six games, and then now this was game number. I think he also played a couple other games during that run, but, you know, he deserves to stay in the lineup this entire series. I know Sorokin didn't have the best angle there, you know, kind of was a little bit of payback for what Trishin Jari did with the first one with Kyle Paul.

Mary, but, you know, Freddie just stayed with the puck. He honestly corrowed that puck, I think, in the defensive zone, skated up the ice, got to the forecheck, had one shot that was blocked, but then got it back and then fired it, top cheese, pass Seroke, and just an awesome all-around goal from Freddie. And I just keep him in the lineup. You know, I know, hopefully when Gino comes back, you know, they're obviously going to have a big decision to make. It'll probably be Evan Rodriguez coming out of the lineup. But Goudreau has just been really good, and I'm really excited to see what else he can do in this series. Other positives, I thought Chris LaTang was magnificent yesterday.

This was one of his finest performances of the season today. Honestly, I think it's one of my top five favorite performances from him this season. Defensively, he was absolutely outstanding. There was a two-on-one, I think, in that game where he got his stick on the puck, which deflected out of play. I know people are going to harp on him a little bit for the Brock Nelson goal, which made it three-two late in the third period, but, you know, I'm kind of blaming that a little on Tristan Jari because that puck can't go in.

That's like 25, 30 feet out. He's in perfect position for it. And, you know, we are going to touch on Jari probably later on in his segment or during the second segment, but I thought Lattang played that as well as he could. And he was just also very engaged offensively moving the puck up the ice with authority. They almost, him and Crosby almost had their signature goal where it's that slap pass to Sid's stick.

Sid elevates it a little bit, but it hits just the top of his Sorokin's pad. and stays out. If Sid elevates it maybe an inch more or a couple more inches, that's another goal. And I believe, if I'm not mistaken, that would have made it three to one at the time. Actually, it might have made it two to one before Sid's goal in the second period. Yeah, so if that would have went in and then Sid would have scored his other one in the second period, it would have been a three-one game. And I don't know if the Islanders are coming back from that one.

But yeah, definitely a missed opportunity to give. The power play, I thought the power play was good yesterday. It just didn't generate the result that you wanted. The first two units especially were great. They had one power play where they're in the zone for the full two minutes, getting some really good quality chances, but Sorokin was right there to make the saves that needed to be made. And then the third one, just the power play wasn't there.

I mean, that's just how it is sometimes. You're not going to have a good two minutes on every power play that you get. But still, that played a big part, and the Penguins not putting the Islanders away. I understand the goaltending was not that good yesterday, but this was a two to one game for most of the second period. The Penguins led basically that entire period. And they had a lot of good quality chances after Crosby meet up two to one. There was a two-on-one, I think, with Sid and Gensel.

If Sid has a perfect opportunity to shoot it to make it three-to-one, he decides to pass it to Gensel. It's like this team has been so bad at two-on-ones this season. Just shoot the damn puck. I'm sorry if I sound like a full yinzer in the section 412 or something at PPGP's arena where I'm like, shoot it. shoot it, shoot it, but in that instance, just take the damn shot. You don't need to be fans with these passes.

I saw another one during the same period. Zach Ashton Reese has a two-on-one. He's trying a curl drag against the Aller's. It's like, buddy, just fire it on net. You have basically a 50-50 shot of it going in. You don't need to be all fancy and just do this curl and drag bullshit. But, you know, I saw this tweeted a couple times during the game, and I'll repeat it here. When a team is down like that and you are out playing them so badly as the penguins were doing

for the first 40 to 43 minutes of that game, you have to take them out for you. If you would have gotten another insurance school there, 3 to 1, 4 to 1, that game is over. I understand Trish and Dari, again, did not have a great game, far from average, but if it's 3 to 1 there, they probably continue to play very well in the third period because you saw what happened when Paso tied the game about what, 4 to 5 minutes in, it deflated the team. And that's when the game turned onto the Islander's hands where they were getting quality chances. It just took the air out of the building when the Penguins gave up that goal because Jari was just not on his game.

So if that does happen again, and there is a high likelihood that it will, they need to continue to skate and play well. And I know Kisperi Kappin did have an answer 31 seconds after the Brock Nelson goal, but where was that kind of response after Pajot made it 2 to 2? I mean, imagine if Jari didn't give up that third goal to Brock Nelson, then Kaepinanin scores there to make it 3 to 2. Again, Pittsburgh likely wins that game. And if you go to the money puck tracker, 66% of the time with how this game ended up, the Penguins win the game just because of how many chances they had. I mean, I go back to what I was tweeting about yesterday during the game.

The Penguins were the better team overall at 5B5 in this game. This was not 2019 all over again. Here, they had 62% of the scoring chances at 5E5. They also led in high danger chances at 5B5, 10 to 6 for that game, and they also had over 50% of the shot attempts, 51% to be frank. And at all situations, I believe it actually goes up to around 53 to 54%. And, you know, for some reason, there's people telling you that the goaltending was not the main reason why the Penguins lost. Please, people. I mean, the Penguins lost yesterday because they did not get the saves that they needed from their number one starting goaltender who is making $3.5 million per.

Thank you so much for listening to this episode of Locked on Penguins. I'll see you tomorrow. No, I'm mainly just messing. I do have more to say on Tristan Jari coming up in this next segment. But again, that is why they lost. If he plays average tomorrow night or if he rebounds like the way we have seen him rebound this season. Remember everyone, six goals against him into third period against New Jersey, comes back his next few games only allows one goal in 120 minutes.

If that happens again, you know, everyone will just forget about this. And then the Penguins will have a two-one series lead. going into game four. But let's see if Jari Azadena, again, I'm going to touch a little bit more on him and the goals that he gave up in the next segment. But before we do get to that, it's time to talk about something new that we have not talked about on the podcast before, and that is credit karma. It's always been there to help you make better financial decisions, and now they want to help even more with a credit karma money spend account, you can be rewarded for good money habits. Credit karma money is a brand new checking account where you can win cash reimbursements for making

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Instant karma is sponsored by credit karma. No purchase necessary exclusions and terms apply. C rules, banking services provided by NVB Bank. Member FDIC, maximum balance, and transfer limits apply. All right, welcome back to this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. You know to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow this show's Twitter at L.O.

penguins. So let's get to the big elephant in the room. I know I touched on a little bit in the last segment and that is Tristan Jari. I am, let's just say this first. I am really sick and tired of people in this fan base, bringing up Mark Andre Fleury and Matt Murray. Shut the hell up already. I'm just, I'm really tired of it. Matt Murray is not here anymore. He did two awesome playoff runs with this team where he was 925 and 937. I know the walls kind of went down a bit in the last couple of seasons that he was here. But, you know, I don't really need to hear the, oh, wow, looks like Matt Murray was back in that. It looks like Matt Murray was back in 2019.

It's just like, you people have Matt Murray so far up your asses because he took Mark Andre Fleury's job. Again, stop it. And then before I do say anything about Jari with the goals, enough about Mark Andre Fleury. You know, I know he's having a great season. He's one of my favorite players in the team's history. But they made the right decision at the time to move on from him.

I will die on that hill and you should as well. So please stop bringing him up. But back to the goals that Jari allowed, at least three of those can't happen. That first one from Kyle Palmary, basically a floater from 30, 35 free. Pedersen is playing that the best he could, and it just goes high glove for whatever reason. It's like, Tristan, that is a save that probably a college goaltender makes. I really don't understand how that goes in. Again, it can't happen.

I know the Penguins are able to respond to make it two to one shortly thereafter with Freddie Goodrow, tying it and then Crosby making it to one early in the second period. But that is a goal that just cannot go in. If he makes that save there, Pittsburgh is potentially up to nothing after that, and then it's an even steeper hill for the Islanders to climb the rest of the way. And then the second goal, the Penguins are actually playing some really good team defense earlier on in the third period. You know, they're honestly stacking the blue line a bit, doing a little bit of a one-three-one

is what I've noticed. And they also did a little bit of their one-two-two, which is what they do when they're leading. And Jari, innocent wrister from Jean-Gabriel Paso. I believe Cici is playing the puck there, but he didn't really need to get a stick on puck there because you're just trusting your goalie to make that save. Again, 35 feet down or something like that goes high glove top cheese for whatever reason. It's like that is an innocent looking wrist shot. It is not good enough.

Both of those goals have to be saved. I mean, that's just point blank. That is how it should be. I understand a lot of people were concerned going into the playoffs about the team's goaltending. And, you know, I went on Chad and Eddie's show on 412 Sports Talk and said, if the penguins get the level that we saw from Jari early on in the season, there is going to be a major problem. And that is exactly what we saw in this game was that Jari reverted back to early season form

and not the Tristan Jari that we saw from mid-February on. Because he was actually very fucking good down the stretch. I mean, him and Casey DeSmith from around mid-February to mid-April had the number one all situations, cumulative, say percentage in the NHL. Yes, everyone, that is actually true and actually happen. I have said this before. I will say this again. All the Penguins need is league average goaltending and the rest of their roster will do

what needs to be done. You saw it yesterday. They were outplaying the Islanders so goddamn bad for the first 40 to 43 minutes. I mean, the Islanders only had six high danger chances overall. and almost 80 minutes played. I mean, going into the third period, I believe the Islanders only had three to four high danger chances. I mean, that was how good the Penguins were playing defensively.

It was a stark contrast from what we saw in 2019. But again, that second goal from Pazzo just deflated them. And then that third goal from Brock Nelson. I know, like I said, people were harping on Latang, but that needs to be stopped. That's another innocent-looking shot from 35 feet out or 25-30 feet. And Jari gets a little bit of a piece of it, but not enough. And then the fourth one, I mean, I don't even know how he allows a little bit of room up there.

Sure, it was a perfect shot from Kyle Palmary, who of course has two goals in this game, after almost scoring two goals in 17 games for the Islanders. But again, that's another one that needs to be stopped. And I will say it, again, he flat out, Tristan Jari, that is, lost the game for the Penguins yesterday. That was the main reason why they lost. If he rebounds on Tuesday, which I do think he will, and they win the game. the game, let's say 4-1 or something, 3-2, whatever, 3-1, you know, I think a lot will be forgiven, it'll be 1-1 going back to Nassau, that's fine, you know.

This was always going to be a long series. I said it from the start. I had pens and six, but I probably honestly put it at a 50-50 shot that it would go seven games. So everyone just needs to strap themselves in and get ready for a while ride because that is what this series is going to be. The Islanders are not just going to roll over and die and let you just sweep them. I mean, this is a very good team with a lot of playoff experience.

So we'll see what happens tomorrow night. I expect the penguins to bounce back in that game. I mean, I have penguins in six. I mean, they've got to start winning one now. And this is as close to a must-win game as you can get. Also, before we do get some commercial break, Evgeny Malkin, back on the ice today. But I will get old takes exposed for this one. I'm not sure if he's playing in this series, everyone.

I mean, I said before the series that I thought he would be available. But, you know, I know he's battling a bit of an injury right now. I understand that, but Gino, buddy, the team needs you. I mean, he's obviously not 100%, but he's going to have to start suiting up here sooner rather than later. I'm hoping it's tomorrow night, but he didn't take line rushes again at practice day, so I think Sullivan might be holding him out. Again, Brian Duman was also not a practice today.

Sullivan said it is a maintenance day, so I expect him to be in the lineup tomorrow night. But yeah, I mean, they got to get Gino back ASAP. I mean, I know his knee, like I said, again, is not 100%, but, you know, a lot of players are not 100% in the playoffs right now. That's just how it is. He needs to come back if the penguins want a real shot at coming back here in this series, as well as the goal tending actually turning itself around. Finally, just some other quick thoughts before we do get to the commercial break

and welcome him on. Our special guest, Mike Matheson, the chaos experience was back for him on Sunday. That's for sure. Seeing Matt Barzel go up against him one-on-one, just made my heart stop. Another play in overtime, I think, where Pajot took the puck from him. He's just trying to beat. too cute with the puck and it's just like you know that's bad mike matheson for you know i know know he was good before he got hurt um for the last four to six weeks but that was not the level

that we wanted to see for matheson love to the play from the ashton riggs bluegretan of line i mean they're just going to continue to crush it with all the minutes that they get i thought rodriguez was fine with his comeback i did think carter and mccann were uncharacterously quiet i don't think you're going to see that in game too carter was actually close to winning the game in overtime got kind of split through the defense a little bit and was able to get a shot on goal from about 10, 15 feet out that did not end up going in just a couple minutes before Paul Mary won it. And yes, Kaspuri Kappen gets his first playoff goal with the Penguins. As Danny Shire Irving says, he is probably the most opportunistic player on this Penguins roster because not

30 seconds after Brock Nelson scores to make it three or two. Capon comes back the other way. Carter does a great job of backing the defense off of Kappan. And then he just snipes it far side post and an awesome goal there. But again, I expect a bounce back from this team tomorrow. They've been resilient all season. And from the level of play that we saw from the first two periods from yesterday, I do believe that they can do that

for a full 60 minutes on Tuesday. And remember, 50% capacity at PVG paints arena for that game and the rest of the playoffs should they advance. Okay, but before we do get to our next segment, it's time to talk about a couple things. One of them being, Bill Farr, did you know that Bill Pard has nine delicious flavors?

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The show's Twitter at L.O. underscore Penguins. As promised, I did teach. He's a surprise guest for this third segment. He has never been on the show before. I don't think I've ever talked about this a lot on my show before, but I have Andy McNeil here from V-SIN Live for sports betting. Usually he does cover NHL betting for V-Sin Live. Andy, how are you doing today?

I'm doing great. I'm excited to talk a little bit about the Islanders and the Penguins here. I've, you know, I don't have any allegiance in this series, and I don't have a dog in the fight as things stand from a betting perspective. But I am a big Sydney Crosby fan, originally being from Nova Scotia and have followed his career. You know, we're only a few weeks apart in age. I believe he was born a couple of weeks before me. I grew up roughly about five hours away from him and knew of him when I was 11 years old.

And he was, you know, 11 or 12. So I've followed his career all along And then it's been You know Just amazing to watch him Do the things that he's done He's basically You know

He was a prodigy that's fulfilled Every prophecy From the Olympics to the The NHL And it's uh you know I'm a big I'm a big Sydney Crosby fan If nothing else That's what we like to hear

You know there's a lot of people that Don't like Sydney Crosby for various reasons But you know someone as you said he's from Nova Scotia You know what? Can I? I know he had that whiner rap, you know, early on in his career, and maybe that still sticks with some people. But from my perspective and actually knowing some mutual friends, some friends of friends

that were very close to Crosby, the stuff that he had to deal with as a young superstar in Nova Scotia, in, you know, Canada in general, you know, dealing with the opposing, some pretty vicious stuff from opposing teams and opposing parents even as a youngster. you know, it's no wonder why he was the way he was and a little bit of a little bit of a chip on his shoulder when he, when he got to the NHL because, you know, things, people may look at him as somebody that maybe had an easy road and just being so gifted, but he had to, you know, really scratch and claw to get where he's at today. So I don't think there's a lot of understanding as far as, you know, just just knowing where Sidney Crosby comes from. Yeah, I mean, it all started his rookie season, too, when Ken Hitchcock got mad because, you know, Dary and, Hatcher basically slash his teeth out. Yeah, I remember that.

Scored the O.T. winner right there, right there, too. If I were said, I honestly just would have went to skated over to Ken Hitchcock and gave him a nice, well, I'm not going to say what I would have done. But everyone probably knows what I would have done if I were him. But in terms of some betting, Andy, this series, you know, I expected it to be long. I picked the Penguins to win in six games. Obviously, the Islanders took game one. Are there any trends that are going right now?

I mean, especially if Evgeny Malcon comes back. Like, do we know what the line is going to be potentially? Or just in terms of goaltending, too, just because Tristan Jari was really obviously not that good yesterday. Yeah, so that was my big concern for as far as the Penguins heading into the series. And now, you know, not to knock Jari. I mean, he's had a tough go here transitioning into the starter's role. you know, never really being given the green light, you know, even last year not being given that first start against Montreal was pretty surprising, given that Marie was really on the decline at that point. You know, but heading into this season, I was definitely, you know, had some questions about Jerry, and I'm not convinced that he's a true number one goaltender right now.

And, I mean, I don't think I'm shocking anybody to say that the Smith was arguably the better goaltender this season. Yeah, DeSmith was, I think that's definitely a weird one among Penns fans, at least. I mean, Jari was good down the stretch. I mean, he had a couple months where he was right around 9, 29, 25, but DeSmith, he was also playing some really good hockey. I remember when I was looking, just at some stats from mid-February to early, to mid-April, excuse me, I talked about this earlier on the episode. They had the best cumulative team say percentage in the league. So, if they were healthy, you couldn't have gone wrong.

I understand why they went with Jari because three and a half million per you pay him to be your starter. And I do think there would be a big controversy if DeSmith was healthy. But I think they probably will have to go back to Jari for game two. And rightfully so, they want him to bounce back. Yeah, I wasn't surprised that that Jari got the starting game one. I had expected that. I mean, he's the guy there. I'm just stating how I feel about it as from a probability.

standpoint, I think the Smith has given them a better opportunity to get a lot of wins here throughout the season. But, you know, overall, it's tough because goaltending goes to the islanders. They've got Varlamov and they've got Sorokin or Sorkin. And, you know, it was a surprise yesterday to see Rolomov. I know he was dealing with something, but for Ilyos Orkin to come in and get a win and give Varlomov that extra, that extra rest that he apparently needs, it'll be interesting to see what happens. Do they stick with Sorkin? I kind of think they'd probably go back to Barlamas here. It's a good opportunity to get him in and get a big time upper hand on the penguins here. Coming into the series, I had forecasted. I had handicapped this, you know,

with these thoughts in mind, I guess these assumptions based on the data and the things that we've seen from the season series, because although the penguins did own the season series on the surface level, you know, wins and goals and things like that. The underlying metrics were pretty pretty even. I mean, shots and chances, expected goals, things like that. We're all sitting around 50%. So, you know, for the most part, these two teams are, you know, playing some really tight hockey games against one another. And it's been a shooting and a saving thing. So, you know, heading into this series, I expect the Islanders to get more saves, assuming that the two teams are kind of even in shots.

But, you know, Pittsburgh, they have so much skill and then nobody on the islanders outside of Barsel can really match up to what the penguins bring offensively. So, I mean, that in and of itself is a reason there to make the penguins a favorite. And I did make them a favorite with a roughly 54% chance to win. And that was really right about what we saw being offered from sportsbooks. So at the end of the day, I actually did consider betting the Islanders yesterday,

but when Malkin was announced out and Sorkin came in, I didn't really like that tradeoff. If it had it been Varlandoff, I probably would have backed the Islanders as an underdog. But I agree with your assessment of this series. I mean, I think it's going to go long, even with the Islanders getting the upper hand early here and coming out with that first win. This is, you know, in all likelihood of six or a seven-game series. these two teams are just too closely matched for any one team to run away with it unless, you know, the other team is really unlucky.

Yeah, you know, unless, you know, like you saw yesterday, Pittsburgh's goaltending continues to be, like, that bad, then, you know, this could be a shorter series, though. Like I said, earlier on this episode, when Jari gave up a six spot to New Jersey in late April, he came back with two performances right after that and only gave up one goal in 120 minutes. So he's just, Jack going hide, he goes back and forth. Again,

I think it's more, maybe more likely that he does bounce back tomorrow, but I also agree with your assessment that, you know, like it is going to be close and, you know, with the bets, it's just, I don't know,

I obviously don't have as much experience, you know, with betting, I'm sure, you know, some of the listeners do not either. Do you have any, like, great tips for people, like, trying to get into betting for the first time,

especially in a series like this, which is just so tight with both between these two teams. Yeah, well, you know what? I think for the most part, if people are just looking for some entertainment, there's obviously some bets that they can make at pretty long odds,

things like for school score and stuff like that. That's, you know, I guess you could say those are fun bets to make that you won't win very often because the odds are long for a reason. They represent the underlying probability. So, you know, if you're picking Sidney Crosby to score the first goal, you know, the reason you're getting 8 to 1 or 7 to 1 is because that kind of reflects his chances of doing so. I mean, there are a lot of players that could score the first goal.

But in general, I think the playoffs are a time when people want to explore in-game wagering and live betting because, you know, as you know, score effects are a real thing in the N. When teams get up by a couple of goals, they tend to sit back, they go into a defensive shell, you know, maybe sacrifice some of their offensive opportunities in order to try and protect that league and our lead, sorry. And that, you know, I believe it's even, you know, it increases. It becomes even more of a problem for teams in the playoffs because everything, there's so much at stake, you know, if a team is able to get up by a couple of goals, the incentive to just. really try to lock things down and hold that lead is there even more so than it is in the regular season. And that opens things up for the other team. So I know we saw several lead changes yesterday in the Islanders and Penguins game. And that creates an opportunity to kind of trade prices or, you know, take your pick

of a team at longer odds throughout the course of a game. Because you know if a team goes down, their odds of winning the game are obviously decreasing, which increases the payout. But as we know, we've seen it time and time again in these playoffs. These teams aren't going to quit. I mean, there's no reason. I mean, you know, there's no reason to quit in any given game, no matter what the situation of the series is,

because we've seen so many just absolutely insane happenings here in these last number of years. And even in this regular season, how many times have we seen teams battle back from, you know, three goal deficits in the final minutes? the goal he pulled, it's happened. And, you know, being on the right side of those wagers is, there's probably nothing more fun than that. So, you know, that's where I would, I would dip my toes into if I was looking to get into some of the playoff hockey fun. Because admittedly,

I think overall the prices that we see heading into each game are pretty sharp. They're pretty accurate as far as the odds go because the sports books and the odds makers have a ton of information to go off of, you know, with the regular season, wrapped up in these teams playing each other so many times that they're very confident in their pricing right now. And I would say that most of the people, you know, betting large amounts of money are also pretty confident, too. Yeah. You know, now Andy's making me want to put some wagers down for a couple of these games moving

forward. Is there anything you're looking to for game two tomorrow in Pittsburgh? Don't really know the status with it, Gennie Malkin. They say he's a game time decision. I personally don't think he's going to play. again. He did not take line rushes today. Does Varla Lama play? Barry Trott said he's getting close.

Is there anything, you know, big or small, just with profits or whatever, just with betting in general that you're looking forward to with tomorrow's game? So in terms of the big pitcher, like, you know, who's going to win the game? And that's essentially the question you're trying to answer when, you know, betting into the money line. But, you know, here's the thing.

I think Pittsburgh's going to win the game more often than not, regardless of whether or not Malpkin is in the lineup or whether he's not. But obviously their chances increase if he's in there. But let's assume that you're correct. And I think you probably are correct here, given that he didn't take line rushes and it doesn't look like he's all that close to coming back.

You know, I think what we could see here is a big move towards the penguins at some point, assuming Varlamov doesn't come back, because there is going to be that sediment out in the market amongst sports betters that, you know, this is going to be a bounce back game from the penguins. And, you know, the penguins did get the better of the scoring chances in game one. So people will probably assume that that will be the case here in game number two. And now, you know, just as much as I would like to buy into that, too, I think there is a case for, you know, the Islanders playing a tighter game as well, just because they got a lucky win, let's say,

or maybe a fortunate win yesterday. It really could have went either way. that doesn't mean that they can't clean things up as well, right? So for me, I'm, you know, I'm probably not going to get there on Pittsburgh because at this point you've got to lay $1.32 to win a dollar. And that's without Afghani Malkin. If Malkin comes back, you're probably looking at laying or risking a $1.45 or $1.50 to win a dollar, which, you know, on the other side of that means you can bet a dollar to win $1.30 on the New York Islanders to win the game. and I feel that's a much more comfortable position to be in, you know, standing where I'm standing objectively, I think. Now, if you're a penguins fan and you're looking to, you know, bet with your heart a little bit,

like I said, I would look for that opportunity to jump in, assuming, you know, if the penguins do trail at any point in game number two, I would look for an opportunity to, you know, jump in at that point and maybe hope for a comeback. and a bigger payoff. Yeah, you know, all those are very well said. You know, I'm honestly kind of thinking about maybe putting some money down on a Jeff Carter goal tomorrow just because he's shown up a lot or even said potentially because he scored yesterday with how he played as well. I think he has at least another one coming, probably a lot more knowing that it is Sidney

Crosby. But before I do let you go here, Andy, there are some more series getting started tonight, Carolina, Nashville, Carolina Definitely, I think, is the big betting favorite in this series. They're the favorite overall when you look at picks and just like hurricanes and fire or whatever. And then there's also game two with Boston, Washington.

I may be wrong, but has the money shifted to Boston because Craig Anderson is starting tonight against them? And then as for Carolina, I'm just curious just to know where the money is with that series. I'm assuming a lot of it is on the hurricanes. but just wanted to hear your input. So everything depends on the price, and I think there's no better example of that today

than Nashville and Carolina, right? I wasn't looking to get behind the Hurricanes. I do have them as a pretty hefty favorite here in the series, looking at roughly a 73% chance of winning, which matches up pretty well with the series odds that are offered over there at draft games. but Nashville or Carolina, sorry, opened minus 185 on the money line. And bets have come in on Nashville that's pushed that down all the way to minus 160.

So, you know, before you had to lay $1.85 to win a dollar on the hurricanes, now you can get away with laying $1.60 to win a dollar. And, you know, contrary, the predators at open when this game was offered up by odds makers at the start, they were being offered at plus 160, so about a dollar to win a dollar 60. Now they're down to about $1.45. So, you know, there has been some money and some action coming in on the predators. And I would say that whoever was able to move the entire market, definitely either put a significant amount of money down on this game or they are very respected and their opinion

matters to those that have the ability to shift the odds. but I felt that it was it was too big of a move and at that point when it came from minus 185 all the way down to minus 160 I jumped in on the hurricanes at that point and it's a smaller rager than I'd like to have I'd like to have a bigger stake here but I do think I would like to see a shorter price maybe minus 150 I'm pretty sensitive when it comes to that it's like shopping for me I'm looking for you know the best odds that I can obtain and and you know so I've got a little bit stake in the hurricanes. I think I'm a little bit concerned though. Saros, although I do think Ndalkovich is going to get the start. Saros has been great down the stretch and then the predators have

really ported on as a plate. So a little bit of concern there for sure. But as far as Boston and Washington goes, I took a big loss on the Bruins money line in game one. I was really disappointed with their effort early in the game. But you know, as things went on, I thought they really found themselves in the second and third period and in overtime. It was, I thought there, you know, it was, it was really unfortunate the way things kind of played out in terms of how the goals were scored. And I think if we were to play that game over, Boston would come away with the win more often than not.

I'm going to need them to really test Craig Anderson, assuming he does get the start here. But you're right. There definitely has been a shift in the odds going from BTECB. BNech, who I don't think is necessarily a number one NHL goaltender. to Craig Anderson, who I am almost positive is not a number one NHL goaltender anymore. It hasn't been for quite some time. But yeah, so there's definitely been a shift. The Bruins money line odds were roughly around minus 130 or minus 125 to minus 130 in the first game.

And now we're seeing anywhere from minus 135 to minus 140. So you're definitely correct on your assessment there. Yeah, and Boston I think came into that series as a favorite anyway. they are playing some really good hockey. And overtime is, honestly, you flip a coin. That basically is what overtime is. It's the first team that scores. A lot of it is luck-based because, you know,

your goal always have to make some saves. Sometimes you hit a lot of posts. That's just, that's how it is a lot of times. So just you brought up something that I find interesting. And I always, you know, I think it's a great way to maybe understand some of these markets and different prop bets and things like that. the luck factor. And when you mess with the sample size,

and essentially what we're doing with a period is, you know, you're slicing the game down to three periods, and the overtime is, you know, comparable to one period, obviously. But when you mess with the sample size like that, we're taking, you know, we can look at it over the course of a 60-minute game, but then you bring it down to 20 minutes and say,

here, next goal wins. You know, it really does increase the luck factor. And then when you're looking through, for bets to make on a sports book you'll see you'll see series bets and you'll see just game bets you'll see period bets

and the one thing that you'll notice is a favorite will have a much better chance of winning the series than they will have in a single game because it's a lot easier to win four of seven than it is to just win one game because there's a lot of luck involved in one single game and the same goes for the period as well

so you'll look at maybe a period money line because you can actually bet, let's say, I want to bet the penguins to win the first period tomorrow. The price that you will, the price that you pay will typically be less than that of a full game because, like I said, it's a little bit easier to luck out and win a period than it is to win a full game, right? So that's something to kind of help people understand

just what they're looking at and maybe, you know, to caution them against seeing, oh, I can bet, I can bet a dollar 10 to win a dollar on the first period, but I've got to bet $1.25 to win a dollar on the full game. Well, that's why because, you know, there is that extra added factor of luck there. Yeah, that's, you bring up a really good point there. You know, these are all going to help me as I start, I think, getting a little more into this. Just real quickly here, I know I said I was going to let you go, but just real quick here, Andy.

This Colorado St. Louis series is getting ready to start too. I read a couple preview, especially Dom's one in the Athletic, where Colorado was 88% as a favorite. what is the betting one like in that series? Because I got to assume it is all aboard the abs bandwagon right now. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I'm sure there are people out there that are betting some lunch money on the St. Louis Blues just for the hell of it. Because, you know, why not? But, you know, heading into the series, you know, it opened around minus 400.

So you'd have to bet $4 to win a dollar on the avalanche to win the series. And just like I talked about a minute ago, the series line right now is minus $4.55. So you'd have to bet $4.55 to win a dollar if you want it to bet on the avalanche to win the series. And as far as the game, it's much lower than that, obviously, because it's easier for the blues to luck out and win one game than it is to win four out of seven. But the avalanche are carrying a shorter price minus $335 into that game. I've got them winning the series 83% of the time, so a little bit lower than where Dom is at and a little bit lower than where the market's at right now.

But that's a little bit higher than minus 400. So actually, I believe, I believe, I'll just check here really quick. And I think Perron is out for the news right now. Minus 488 is what I believe the odds should be. You know, St. Louis only gets this done if they really get Colorado off of their game and, you know, mix it up with that physical brand of hockey. And I do wonder about players like Nazim Kadri and Nathan McKinnon. And, I mean, those are great players, but, I mean, you know, can you knock them off their game long enough to, you know, get the game in the upper hand in the series and maybe make them start second-guessing themselves?

I think Colorado is one of the best teams in the last 10 years. but look, the lightning we're ousted in four games just a couple of years ago. So there's always a chance. We can't write anybody off in the NHL. They need a lot to go right, the Blues that is, to win that one.

Jordan Bennington basically needs to be God, and they got to somehow stop the the avalanche can roll out their super line of McKinand, Landis Skog, and Ranton and then Kel McCarr and Devon Taves, and good luck getting the puck off those five players. There's not a question of, you know, the better team or who's you know who's the more skill team here it's it's without a doubt it's

colorado they do everything everything that the blues don't do well colorado is the best at so it's a terrible matchup for st louis but uh right 17 percent or 15 percent 12 percent that's not zero right so uh pretty much you know i haven't seen anybody out there that had that have said the blues has a zero percent chance at winning the series so i mean that's where i'm at right yeah i mean anything can happen especially in a small sample size we We've seen it so many times. That is why this sport, you know, the best team doesn't always win in this sport as compared to other sports. But Andy, I really appreciate you coming on for this segment.

You know, taught me a lot about betting and I'm sure taught a lot of the listeners about betting as well. Where can everyone find your work and find you on Twitter? Well, you guys can follow me at Digital Gambler on Twitter. And, of course, you know, check out Beeson. We're on IHeart Radio. and I believe there's a free player on the website that people can check out the network and listen, it's the first 24-7 sports betting network of its kind

and there's a lot of great stuff over there. But yeah, no, I mean, I'm hoping to be found in a lot more places in the future. Yeah, and I'll definitely hope we have you on here. At some point down the road, especially if the penguins are still planning to see how they stack up, potentially against the Boston ruins, as I think a lot of people want to see that match up for both teams coming out of these. But both teams, of course, trail 1 to Zua right now in their respective series.

Again, Andy, thank you so much for coming on. We'll have another episode tomorrow, either right before the game or right after game two, as the Penguins look to try to even up the series before going to the Nassau Coliseum on Long Island. But that'll do it for this one. Talk to you all tomorrow.