Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - It's time for a Penguins free agency primer!

Episode Date: June 30, 2023

Happy almost Free Agency Day! Hunter starts the show by going into who was qualified by the Pittsburgh Penguins in terms of their restricted free agents and explains why he was not surprised by the decision regarding Ryan Poehling. He dives into how banged up he was earlier this year with his injury and how the Penguins may not be confident that he can ever be fully healthy again. He also discusses what a potential DOC contract looks like before getting to the news about Mikael Granlund not being bought out. He looks at how Kyle Dubas stuck to his word with it and how he may still try to dump him via trade this offseason. After that, he gives his predictions on which of the UFAs will come back before diving into his free agency primer. He analyzes Matt Duchene and why he'd be a TREMENDOUS fit for the Penguins, even though he's a bit older. He also looks at the smoke surrounding Blake Wheeler and why he'd pass on him before getting into some more options, including Max Pacioretty, PiUs Suter, Morgan Geekie, and Sam Steel. All of that, plus much more, is on this episode of Locked On Penguins.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!AG1If a comprehensive solution is what you need from your supplement routine, then try AG1 and get a FREE 1-year supply of Vitamin D AND 5 free AG1 Travel Packs with your first purchase. Go to drinkAG1.com/NHLNETWORK.GametimeDownload the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNHL for $20 off your first purchase.ebay MotorsFor parts that fit, head to eBay Motors and look for the green check. Stay in the game with eBay Guaranteed Fit. eBay Motors dot com. Let’s ride. eBay Guaranteed Fit is only available to US customers. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply.FanDuelMake Every Moment More. Don’t miss the chance to get your No Sweat First Bet up to TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in Bonus Bets when you go to FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Twas the night before free agency, and everyone is super excited for today's episode of the Locked on Penguins podcast. I'm going to give you my full free agency primer heading into free agent frenzy on Saturday. That's coming up right after this. You're Locked on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network. Your team every day.

Hello, welcome back to our episode. episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I am your host Hunter Hodes, and follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes, follow the shows Twitter at L-Ns for Penguins. And, of course, thank you all so much for making this your first listen slash watch of the day.

We are free and available on all platforms. This episode is brought to you by eBay motors. The championship team is all about each player being a perfect fit. Same with your vehicle. So if they're parts that fit, head to eBay Motors and look for the green check. Stay in the game with eBay Guarantee Fit.

eBaymotors.com. Let's ride eBay, FIT only able to U.S. customers, eligible items only exclusions apply. So let's jump right into our show for the day. We'll start with the Penguins just releasing who they give qualifying offers to and who they did not give qualifying offers to. And there's going to be a player in there that they didn't give a qualifying offer to you. That's definitely going to catch your eye.

So per the Penguins, they gave qualifying offers to Jonathan Gruden, who plays down in Wilkesbury. Philip Hollander, who is overseas right now. he left the penguins earlier this year to sign in Sweden, so that doesn't really make a difference. Drew O'Connor, who is a restricted free agent, I assume that's going to be an easy contract negotiation, defenseman Ty Smith, and goaltender, Philip Lindberg. They also did not qualify a few other players from Wilkesbury, but the one main one in there that did not give a qualifying offer to is Ryan Paling. So he will now become an unrestricted free agent, and he will be allowed to sign with any team

as soon as Saturday when the free agent market opens. I put a tweet out before the Penguins released this list, and I was kind of wondering myself, some people thought this was going to be a slam dunk, but I was like, I don't know about that because of Palings' injury history. Remember, I have heard this past season that he was battling a pretty severe back injury,

was in and out of the lineup a lot. It seems like based off this, the Penguins may think that he will never get back to being 100%, so they're going to let him negotiate with other teams. The Penguins can still sign him to a contract that doesn't fully close the door on him coming back, but they are allowing other teams to negotiate with him heading into Saturday, July 1. But if he does leave, that's another hole, especially at 4-5-centar spot. Luckily for the Penguins, there's a lot of options out there for that spot, and I'll get into that

a little bit later on in today's episode. But that's the big one. So Ryan Paling not qualified, he'll be a UFA. Drew O'Connor is. I do expect O'Connor to be back with the Penguins. They have the exclusive negotiating rights with him. No, no one is going to offer sheet him. I don't even think you're going to see any offer sheets again during the free agency window

because a lot of GMs are scared to do it and piss off one another. That's just how it is, I think, in the NHL. But that's the big news when it comes to qualifying offers, everything else. But that is fine. Also, the buyout window has officially closed. It is past 5 o'clock. and Kyle Dubus stuck to his work. Kyle Grahamlin not bought out during the buyout window.

And he even said there's more creative ways to shed salary. He even said he didn't like it. Buyouts, that is when he was in Toronto, he only really had to do it once. I believe that was for some very odd situation. And he stuck to his guns here. So there's only two options when it comes to Granlin. he's either going to be on the team this fall

or he's going to get dumped to another team. You can look for a sucker that will take on his contract or at least some of it. Maybe the Penguins retained for a couple of years, but he is not going to be bought out this year. It made sense to do it because it would have gotten an extra $4 million in cap space for this season. You would have had an extra $3 million in cap space for next season

when the cap is definitely going to go up. Would not have had as much for the final two seasons of the buyout, but it still would have made sense. But I understand why Kyle didn't. and I understand why a lot of GMs don't like using buyouts. We'll get to a couple of other buyouts later on in the episode. But that is the latest news around the penguins for free agency. I'll go into the unrestricted free agents right now before we wrap up

and head into my full free agency primer. Players who I think will come back versus players who I think will not come back. And we'll start with some of the obvious ones. Josh Archibald, my friends, no. I think he was good defensively for the team, but I don't think the penguins have any interest in bringing him back. There's really not been any rumors surrounding him. He's going to go on, I think it's not another contract with the team.

Poor Nick Menino comes over, doesn't even play in five games, gets hurt out for the rest of the season. I feel really bad for him. I don't think he's going to be coming back. Dayton Hinen, 27 years old. Very streaky score. I don't think Kyle is going to bring him back. Happy trails to him.

Jason Zucker, I know the Penguins. I think they're still engaged with his agency, but right now there's been no news regarding that the penguins can continue to say that, oh, yeah, we're engaged, we're not closing the door on him or anything, but it's going to be really hard to bring him back because of the term he's going to want. Four or five years, five million per. He's going to get that easily on the free agent market. This class is very weak, and I mean very weak.

So he's going to get quite a big contract elsewhere. Right now, I just don't see him returning to the Penguins. Demetri Kulikov, happy trails. That's a Ron Hextall acquisition. I don't think Kyle is any interest in signing him back. And Brian Dumlin, there's really been no rumors surrounding that. And I think he's gone. I think he's going to go to a team on a short-term deal,

maybe a little bit less money than what he was making with the Penguins. and when he does get likely signed by another team, I hope every Penguins fan gives him an outstanding ovation when he comes back to PBG Paints Arena whenever it is this upcoming season. Because from 2015-16 to about, I would say, 2019, 20, maybe 2020, 2020, 2021, he was one of the most underrated defensemen in the NHL.

He formed a beautiful shutdown pairing with Chris LaTang and a prime doom one, God, he was so fun to watch. The way he would break up defensive zone passes with ease, the way he would break out of the defensive zone with a puck on his stick with ease. Such a treat to watch. Formed a beautiful pairing with Latang.

And I know that Penguins fans out there that listen to this or just listen to other shows, just every Penguin fan out there is going to miss and especially with how he played during the back-to-back Stanley Cup runs. They do not win those cups without him. I know it's been bad the last couple of years. He's definitely lost a step or two, but I think everyone should look back on his penguin's tenure with happiness,

because there was a long time where he was one of the more underappreciated defensemen. Remember when Paul Martin was with the penguins and everyone was obsessing over him? Well, Dumlin was him on steroids, I think. He was a perfect presence for Letang on the top pairing. And then finally, Tristan Jari, I did see Rob Rossi's report earlier today, but the Penguins and Jari have a mutual interest in getting a new contract done. But term seems to be the big issue. I think he can definitely get a lot more term on the open market for five, maybe six years. I think for the Penguins, you only can do two years tops with his injury concerns, with his inconsistent play at times. two years is the max that I would do.

And if the penguins do decide to bring him back, say a contract gets announced after I'm done recording here, maybe before noon, eastern tomorrow, July 1st, you have to bring in a new backup for him that can potentially challenge him or also give you better numbers than Casey to Smith can. You cannot run the same tandem back for another season. It's scaled you every single time.

this is going back even to the Jim Rutherford era. You bring back Jari. You have to get a new backup in there or just a 1B who can start you 35, 40 games. That's how I see it. But we'll have to see. I'm still leaning towards Jari, not coming back to the Penguins,

but you never know. Maybe a deal gets done before the market opens up and he has access to talk to other teams. Maybe it doesn't. He goes to another team. But either way, the penguins have to figure out the goalie situation sooner rather than later. I want that to be the thing that Kyle really nails down either on Saturday or early next week.

That's, I think, the biggest question with the team right now. So that's the latest news regarding the Penguins. Coming up after this break, we're going to get into my free agency primer, going into a lot of options for the Penguins, some new options, especially that just became available today that are going to hit the market on Saturday. There is a lot of good talent that's going to be able. know this class is weak, but it got a little bit better on Friday with some of the talent that was made available either via buyouts or via not getting qualifying offers. But before we get to that,

we do have to discuss AG1. I gave it a try because I was feeling really tired in the morning and I needed a lot more energy and I usually do drink it in the morning. I know some other people drink in the afternoon or the evening, but for me, I like drinking it in the morning because it starts my day right, and I have a burst of energy throughout the day. All great athletes have one thing in common. They take care of the bodies, and a huge part of that starts with optimizing whole body health. A lot of them also drink AG1, and it's why I'm a huge fan. With every daily serving, I'm setting myself up for success with 75 high quality ingredients

that give me key daily nutrients and support energy, focus, strength, and clarity. If a comprehensive solution is what you need from your supplement routine, then try AG1 and get a free one-year supply of vitamin D and five free AG1 travel packs with your first purchase. Go to drinkag1.com slash an intro network. That's drinkag1.com slash an internal network. Check it out. All right. I'm back in this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hodes. And I'll follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes.

Follow the shows, Twitter at L.O.N. Shore Penguins. And of course, thank you all so much for making this your first list and slash watch of the day. we are free and available on all platforms. So let's get to my full free agency primer for July 1, which is Saturday. It starts at noon. So right now, about 18 hours away from the market opening up to all teams to start to sign whoever the heck they want. And starting this off is a player who I did not think was going to be available for free agency.

And that is Matt Douchain was bought out today by the national predators. had three years left on his contract for $8 million per. And oh, yeah, that is going to be an insane buyout. They're going to have to pay him at some point over $6.5 million to not even be on the team that's coming in a few years. Before they're going to have to pay him over $5.5 million to not be on the team. It gets a little bit better for the final three years. I think it's a little over $1.5 million for the final three.

But before that, he's going to get a big chunk of change to not play there. and I understand he's a little bit older, 32, but this guy can still play. Remember Dushane Watch back in the Jim Rutherford Air when he was a member of the Colorado Avalanche and all Penguins fans out there were hoping that they could get him. Well, Penguins will may have their shot at getting him on Saturday. He's going to have a lot of interest and rightfully so.

He can still bring it even though he's a little bit older. 22 goals, 56 points in 71 games this past season for the National Petters, ranked in the 85th percentile for 5V5 even strength offense. Only 15 percent of players were better at generating offense at even strength than Duchenne can also work on the power play for the Penguins ranked in the 75th percentile for that. That comes courtesy of J. Fresh Hockey's charts. And the Penguins here, they would probably put them on their second power pole unit.

That's just how deep their power play is here. But heck, if their injuries occur, you can put them on the first power play unit because of how great of an offensive mind he is. Finishing is also his bread and butter, 86th percentile in terms of finishing. And his whole, all of his numbers are in the high blues. 75th percentile for goals per 60 minutes. 75th percentile for primary assist per 60 minutes.

He shot 13 percent this past season. Again, I know he's a bit older, but he would make all the sense in the world for this team. maybe he signed him to a two, three year deal, decent. I don't think he's not going to get $7, $8 million cap-wise, but maybe you can get him for $4, $5 million per. I would very much look into it. He's going to have a lot of interest,

but he would make so much sense for the payments. Can play center, can play wing. I would be all over that if I were Kyle Dubus. Another player who I have gotten questions about from fans that listen or watch this show is Blake Wheeler. So Blake Wheeler was bought out by the Winnipeg Jets on Friday. The Jets were trying to trade him during these past couple of weeks, but they found no takers.

So he's going on to the free agent market. There have been reports that he prefers the Eastern Conference. There's also been report that the Dallas Stars may take a look. And I've been asked by a lot of people, Hunter, what do you think about the penguins for him? And honestly, my friends, I think Blake Wheeler's cooked. I don't think he has anything left in the tank. He's still producing a little bit, but his skating is not there anymore.

He can barely even turn. When I turn on his film, I see a player where the wheels have fallen off. He can't keep up in today's age. He's 37. It's only going to get worse. Even on a cheap contract, I would not do it. That's just my opinion, though. And also, I know a lot of people out there want to get younger.

This would not be getting younger. That's for sure. But I'm just not a big Blake Wheeler fan. You also have the situation where he was stripped of the sea in Winnipeg because he was a locker room cancer. I don't think that will be that big of the deal here in Pittsburgh because the Penguins leadership group surrounding Sydney Crosby, of Gany Malcon and Crystal Tang is very strong. But that's still something to monitor. Had the sea stripped.

wasn't good in the locker room there. But overall, I would pass. I think there are better options available to the penguins outside of Blake Wheeler. So he can go to another team. I'm the Penguins. I would not do it. I think he's cooked at this point. He's not a 20-goal score anymore.

This was his third straight season of scoring less than 20 goals. Remember with Carter, the production was still there and the wheels were still there when he first came over from Los Angeles. but after a year and change, it all went downhill. And that's what you're starting to see right now with Blake Wheeler. Similar age and the wheels have already fallen off. And I think the production is only going to get worse for him going forward. Another option who I could see the penguins going after, high risk, high reward.

What about Max Patcheretti? I know that may sound weird to some of you. But Max Patcheretti, I like him as a bi-loat-candid. I don't think he's going to be looking for a lot of term and a lot of money. I think he's going to be looking for maybe a one-year proof-a-deal. And speaking of that, I came across a tweet from Greg Wysinski earlier today. That was pretty interesting, honestly. He said he spoke to an NHL agent, and this agent thinks we're going to see a lot of one-year deals

for this free agency class. He goes, you're going to have players saying, crap, I can't get that three-year-year deal I want. So I've got to sign a one-year deal and go back up to bat next year, where there's more money to spend because remember, the salary cap should be going up next season by about 3 to 4 million. This should be the last year of the flat cap era. But that's where someone like a max patch ready comes into play. And I know the injury concerns with the ruptured Achilles tendon

only played in five games this season but scored three goals. Before that, though, he was one of the more underrated goal scorers in the league. before this season, played in 39 games of the Knights, 19 goals in those 39 games. I would definitely buy low on that, have it be a high risk, high reward. You can play them in your top stakes. You can play them on the third line. He'll come cheap. Injury concern is valid, but I would be definitely fascinated by Max Patch Reddy.

I haven't seen him talked about enough in penguin circles, but I think that's a total Kyle Dubest move. Someone who can score your goals can give you a lot of assists, can playing in your second paraplegal unit, good in all situations. I would definitely be all over that one if I was dubous. One more option here before we get to some more coming up in the final segment. I discussed him a couple of weeks ago, Pierre Engval, 17 goals this past season,

very strong underlying numbers with both the Maple Leafs and the Islanders was above water and shot attempts. High dangerous scoring chances for, 5E5 scoring chances for, expected goals. he was outstanding with both teams and he was there when Dubus was in Toronto I know Dubus just traded him so that's interesting but I could see

Dubus having interest in him again if the Islanders really don't want to resign it because I think the Islanders are still going to be there for him when July 1 rules around but I would love Engval and the bottom six can score for you can play on the penalty kill you can also play in a second paraply if you need to perfect third line winner

that this team has been desperately lacking over the past year in change, I would be all for him. So that wraps up this second segment, getting into some interesting options for free agency on Saturday. Coming up in the final segment, we're getting into some more by-low options that the Penguins could be all over, considering the cap space that they do have. So that's coming up right after this break.

All right, I'm back in this episode of the last. locked on penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hodes. I'm going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow the shows Twitter at L-O-Sor Penguins. And of course, thank you all so much for making this your first listen slash watch of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. So a few other players here that I had written down for my notes that do make sense for Penguins free agency.

Pugh Souter, he is going to be your free agent. I see him as a great option for the Four Flying Center spot if the Penguins fully do walk away from Ryan Pailing. because he's going to be a UFA come July 1, but they'll still have an option to resign him if they want to, but I think Pew Souter is a better player than Payling had 14 goals and 24 points. This past season with the Detroit Wedwings before that, had 15 goals and 36 points during the 2021-2020 season.

He can drive play well. He ranked in the 70th percentile for 5E-5 offense, and the 50s, actually not, pardon me. I read that wrong for my notes. Seventh percentile for shooting percentage, 51st percentile for 585 offense per Andy and Roanos charts. Very good numbers there. Defensive impact-wise, he ranks in the 83rd percentile,

and he is one heck of a penalty killer. Only 2 percent of players in the NHL rank above him and penalty killing impact. So he is the jack of all trades as a fourth line center. When I was watching the film on him before I started recording, numerous times I would see him get behind whoever is quarterbacking the power play, whoever the Red Wings are playing, and he is off to the races, boom, pucks in the back in the net. He's very quick, has a nice release, good playmaking ability. He can definitely score you 12, 15 goals, maybe even more than that as your fourth line center. I would love

the Penguins to be all over him on a cheap deal to be the 4C. Also another player who actually got bought out today, Kyler Yamamoto. He's a young player, scored 10 goals, 25 points in 58 games. this past season. 20 goals, 41 points in the season before this one. Super young, as I said, only 24 years old. The Penguins badly need some youth in the lineup. And Kyle Dubus talked about that during multiple press conferences when he was, A, introduced his president of hockey operations, and B, during his pre-draft press conference,

made $3.1 million on his last deal. Could maybe be looking for something similar with maybe a shorter term, ranked in the 54th percentile for 5E5 offense. Another very good penalty killer. 94th percentile for penalty killing. So he can play on the wing for your bottom six. Good all-around player, very young. I will be definitely intrigued about him as well.

Another player who I did see the Minnesota Wild to not give a qualifying opportunity today is Sam Steele. Only made $825,000 this past season, scored 10 goals and 28 points, ranked in the 69th percentile for 5-E-5 offense, and the 87th percentile for full offensive impacts per Andy and Roanow charts, if you're not subscribed to them. They're pretty similar to J. Fresh's charts.

All that data comes from Natural Statsrick, Corey Schnasder, and all those other websites. He is very good. Also, Young at 24, I think you can have him for a cheap one-to-two-year deal, maybe 1.5 million per, 2 million per, something like that. Another very good bilo candidate. It can score you double-digit goals, can play on the penalty kill, good at 5E-5-4 checking.

I like him as an option as well. I would keep my eye on him on Saturday as well. Then a couple more to wrap up the show. The Seattle Cracken really surprising me, honestly, by not giving qualifying offers to both Daniel Sprong and more than geeky. Geeky I'll start with, another fourth-line center candidate.

I would be also interested in his services only made $1.4 million this past season for the Cracken. Nine goals, 28 points. Good target for the fourth line center spot. Can even step up to the third line center spot if you need them to with injuries. Another very young player, only 24, very strong offensive underwings as well. So I really like that one. And just for argument's sake, I'll put the offensive underwings for you here. 75th percentile for offensive impact at five on five.

89th percentile for point production among fourth line centers. Passing 80th percentile shooting is above water in there as well. He's also really good with zone entry passes and starting the attack going in the offensive zone. I think you can get him decently for cheap too. So another good fourth line center option. And finally, Daniel Sprong did all of this in fourth line minutes this past season. 21 goals, 46 points in 65 games, ranked in the 99th percentile for offense. among his peers.

He's also elite in transition. Great with even the strike defense. And he's also really good and not allowing zone entries defensively. Didn't even make 900K this past season. Yeah, he's going to get a decent raise. It'll be interesting to see if Mike Sullivan and him would get along just because towards the end of

his tenure in Pittsburgh, I don't know if him in Strong ever saw eye to eye fully. But that's a good player. And I would be curious about a reunion there as well. I'd also throw Max Comptois. in there. I know a lot of Penguins fans like him. Double-digit goal score can also play on your penalty kill. You can play in any situation, really.

There are no shortage of good, buy, low candidates for their free agency class. I know it's a weak class in general, but the Penguins can get some serious value out of the players that I just discussed for this episode. Goalie, I've discussed those in length. You know what score Palsalo? Freddie Anderson, Aidan Hill was just signed, so he's off the market. Those are two right there. Trade-wise, you got the Melka, Connor Hellebuck,

Linus Allmark, all those. We have to see what's going to happen with that. Top 4 defensemen, I think they're going to fill that via trade. You can go through free agency, maybe sign a Shane Goss to spare, maybe sign a Ryan Graves. Don't think they're going to have the term or the money to give to Dimitri Orlov. I didn't mention Tyler Bertuzzi for an impact war before

because I think he's going to get too much term and too much money that the penguins don't want to do. But, yeah, I mean, that's really all I have for you in terms of my free agency primer for players that I think the penguins could look at on Saturday. This is going to be fun. I love this day. I have it circled on my calendar every single year. The overpayments are going to be hilarious, in some cases at least.

But I do think the penguins, with at least some of these guys, they won't have to overpayments. pay for some of them. There's going to be maybe some high risk, high role players, and maybe some low risk, high reward. Maybe, especially with that comment about one-year deals from that agent, that benefits Kyle Dubas and the Penguins a lot. So if you don't got anything to do tomorrow, just stick by social media, see what the team does. I think Kyle Dubas is going to be definitely active.

You may see some trades as well. July 1 is also a very popular day for trades around the NHL and not just re-agent signing. so we'll see if he makes a trade there. Maybe it's dumping Jeff Petriol to a team or maybe acquiring a topboard defenseman to play with Crystal Tang. I have to see. But I'll have another bonus episode for you all

on Saturday giving you mindful breakdowns and analysis of all the players of the Penguins signed slash traded for. So that's coming for you all on Saturday. I really appreciate all of you listening slash watching this episode of the Locktime Penguins podcast. The month of June was incredible. Audio listens up 33%.

in the last 24 to 36 hours, the YouTube channel has gone up 50 subscribers for closing in on 1,400 subscribers. I cannot thank you all enough for tuning into this show. So again, thank you all so much for listening slash watching. I really appreciate it. And I'll be back with another episode of the Locked on Penguins podcast on Saturday.