Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Jack Bond of Locked On Bets joins the show to talk ALL things Penguins!

Episode Date: September 30, 2022

Happy Thursday! This is a bit of a different episode today as Jack Bond, who contributes for Locked On Bets, joins the show for the first time. The two discuss some Penguins bets for this season and why he's really high on a big season from Sidney Crosby, especially when it comes to his points. He also has some good odds for the Penguins to win the Eastern Conference and explains why he thinks this team is being overlooked by a lot of people heading into the 2022-23 season. He also looks at Jake Guentzel and if he has a chance to hit 50 goals before getting into Mike Sullivan's odds for the Jack Adams. Is this the year that he finally gets the respect that he deserves? Jack also gives some league-wide bets that he likes this season and tells the listeners to keep an eye on a couple of select Penguin players who could have big seasons for them. All that, plus a lot more on this special episode of Locked On Penguins.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKEDON15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.BetOnlineBetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Hello, everyone. Welcome to another episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm, of course, your host, Hunter Hodes, September 29th, the second to last day of September, if you all can believe it. So I do have a special guest joining me on the other side of this. His name is Jack Bond. He makes a lot of appearances on Locked-on bets. We're going to go over a lot of stuff related to the Penguins, bets-wise, this easy to know their point projections, SIDS maybe chances for the heart.

Trishon Jari's chances for the Vezna, maybe even a Mike Sullivan. shout out for the Jack Adams that he'll ever win that and some other news and notes about this team as the season is now just a couple of weeks away. I mean, you know, Dom's preview at the athletic has not really dropped yet. I think he has the Penguins. As a top two team, I'm going to get his thoughts

on if he thinks the Penguins could be a threat to win the Metro this year. That's all coming up right after this drop. You're Locked-on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. your team every day. Hello, welcome back to another episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast.

I am your host, Hunter Hodes. Remember to follow me on Twitter, Hunter Hodes. You can also follow the shows Twitter at LL-W-Nsquare Penguins. And of course, thank you all so much for making this show first listen of the day. Joining me now is Jack Bond, who has made plenty of appearances on Locked-on bets. Yes, today is going to be a little bit of a different show, not a lot of Penguins news today just because, you know, I can't do. in camp updates every day here to say the least. But, you know, Jack, I guess, you know,

we'll get right into it. You know, I've been reading a lot of the previews on the athletic lately and, you know, Don has his model and stuff. And, you know, so far, they've done almost every team, but, you know, tomorrow I think starts his top 10. And there's only two metro teams left, actually, it's the penguins and the hurricanes. You know, I think that goes to tell me that he has, obviously, I mean, he has them as a pretty good chance to win the metro. You know, do you think the penguins are getting overlooked as a team that could win the division this year. You know, I know the penguins, they won the East Division a couple years ago. They haven't won the Metro overall since, it's been a few years at least.

But, you know, do you think they're being overlooked a little bit from a betting perspective for that division going into the season? Yeah, you know, I do. And by the way, thanks for having me on. I'm excited to be here. I do think the penguins are a team that are being overlooked a little bit, not only in the Metro, but also in the Eastern Conference. This is one of those teams that has shown quite a bit in the past and in the recent

past that they don't necessarily have to be a one seed or even a two seed in their division or in the east to make some noise in the playoffs and win the Stanley Cup even. You know, they have no problem being a wild card team, a seven or eight spot in the east and running their way straight through the Stanley Cup finals. So I do think they're being overlooked quite a bit. They're plus 350 right now to win the Metro division. 12 to 1 or plus 1,200 to win the Eastern Conference, and then 22 to 1 or plus 2,200 to win the Stanley Cup, win the whole thing.

So, you know, if I'm looking at the Penguins this year, knowing their history, I think if you're a Penguins fan or a team that's really high on the Penguins this year, I think a trendy bet might be to bet on them to win the Eastern Conference or the Stanley Cup rather than the division, simply because, you know, like I said, that this is a team that they've gotten to a point kind of like the Tampa Bay Lightning where the regular season might not matter all that much for them anymore. It's just what matters, you know, it's just what happens when it comes to the postseason. So if you can get them at 12 to 1 to come out of the Eastern Conference in the post, it's a pretty interesting bet to make right there off the top. Yeah, it is kind of funny, you know,

during like the regular seasons and stuff, you know, a lot of people on Penguins Twitter and in some other places, they get like so mad when the team is struggling. And it's just like, you know, they're going to wake up eventually, you know, January, February, February, especially March, you know, that's really when they make their move. They always start off the season a bit slow just because, you know, you don't have your legs yet and all that stuff. But, you know, they can rattle off these winning streaks and get back in pretty easily. The Eastern Conference bet is interesting because, you know, the conference,

I would say it's pretty deep again this year. You know, I don't think anyone would be surprised if all eight teams from last year make the playoffs again. I mean, some teams made improvements over the long season like Ottawa. I mean, I'm sure they have some decent odds to make a lot of. the playoffs, the Islanders, maybe even though they didn't really do too much. The Blue Jackets obviously got Johnny Goodrow. But, you know, I guess when it really comes down to it, you know, almost any of these

eight teams that made it last year, you know, that could very well make it again this year. It feels like they all have a shot. And with the Penguins, I think, with how deep they are at forward, well, usually how they upgraded the defense when Tristan Jari is on, which I'll get to in a second. He's a pretty good goal tender. I think that is a pretty solid bet, because. I think everyone knows at this point not to bet against the core.

And if it weren't for a goaltending this past year, they probably would have won at least a round, if not two. And I think they would have given Tampa Bay one heck of a fight. I completely agree. It feels like you could have six teams coming, or five teams, excuse me, coming straight out of the Atlantic division alone with how stacked that division seems to be this year.

I do think the metro might fall off a little bit. bit just in terms of the, you know, it seems like the New York Rangers and maybe the Washington Capitals. I'm not as high as them as I might have been in years past. With that being said, teams like the Penguins have burned me before. It seems like every time I bet against the Penguins, Cindy Crosby goes out and puts up two goals and two assists and they win in overtime or something like that. So I agree with you, you know, just looking through the Eastern Conference, it's tough to see where a vastly improved Ottawa or Buffalo or Detroit or Islanders even a team could unsee one of those playoff teams from last year. I will say if there are weak links,

quote unquote, to be found in the east. It is the two wildcard teams from last year in Boston and Washington. I don't, you know, unlike with the penguins, I wonder with Boston, how many times can you just keep running it back. You know, they resigned to David Craichy and Patrice Bergeron in the offseason. Those guys are past their primes. You know, Bergeron's always going to be a fantastic player, but I just wonder how much they have to support their top, you know, five or six forwards on that team up in Boston and then Washington.

Now you've got a big injury concern with Nick Baxter. That is a huge injury concern for that team. That power play doesn't look the same without him. Even their top lines don't really look the same without him, as much as Alex Ovechkin is one of the most consistent goal scores of all time. I wonder about Washington this year, especially with the shakeup in net over in D.C. as well. You know, it's funny looking at the penguins odds, not just to win the division or the conference or the Stanley Cup, but just on their season point total as well. This is one of very

few teams in Pittsburgh that is projected, at least by Vegas, to be consistent yet again this year. Now, that's not a surprise if you know the penguins well. They seem to be a team, like I said, that can either finish first or seventh in the Eastern Conference, and they're still going to be a tough out in the postseason. But you look at a team like Florida who put up 122 points last year and won the president's trophy. This year, you're looking at their season point total, for example, and I think it was over under 105 points.

That's a 16 or 17 point drop for a team like that. And then obviously you see the other side of that with a team like Buffalo or Ottawa or Detroit that really improved over the last six months where they're looking at a projection of a 15, 16 point boost. Well, you get to Pittsburgh, the penguins put up 103 points last season. And this year, they're over under their point total is 101.5. So a one or two point drop off is projected by Vegas. Now, I will say the penguins are seven and four on the over on their point projection in the last 11 seasons. So they've been beaten Vegas, just like they've been beaten a whole lot of.

of people betting against them the last decade plus. That Eastern Conference is tough. You know, no matter how much Detroit and Ottawa went out and spent millions in unrestricted free agency to improve their rosters, you look at that Atlantic Division and you can't say, you know, confidently that a team like Florida, Toronto, or Tampa Bay is going to have some major drop off. So I do think the Atlantic's the toughest division in hockey coming into this season. but, you know, if there is any flexibility or any movement to be seen in the playoff picture this year,

it might come from that Metro Division. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, yeah, the Atlantic, I feel like should have most of the same playoff teams. So, you know, you said the best with Boston. I think Marciaun is out to start the year. Maccaboy as well. I think, yeah, I was good. I was wondering if McAvoy is hurt, but I was pretty sure he was.

And then I think Washington's also without Tom Wilson until at least Thanksgiving, December time because he tore his ACL in the playoffs. that's going to be a long road back for him. You know, obviously, you know, wish him the best of luck, even though I hate when he plays the Penguins. It's interesting, though, that they have a one-oh, the over-under is about 101. I would personally take the over with that just because, you know,

Mike Sullivan usually always has this team ready to go. We're going to get into him a little later on in this episode, just because it's crazy that he has not really been a finalist for the Jack Adams yet, and I'm sure those odds are going to be, they're already out at this point. But I know the teams are probably going to deal with a lot of injuries, but I would still take the over, especially because last year, that over, if that was 101 last year, it would have hit just because, you know,

despite all the injuries that they had, you know, with COVID outbreaks too, they were still able to chug along and go on a lot of winning streaks and, you know, really challenged for the Metro all up until like the last couple weeks of the season when they kind of hit a little bit of a dry spell. There I would kind of assume that they are going to be right up in there again. Yeah.

And you know what's crazy, You speak of injuries for the penguins. It seems like they always deal with it, whether it's Crosby or Malkin or Latang or a goaltender. Every year they miss one of those guys misses 15 to 20 games with an injury, right? And when I was doing some research on the Penguins this season and their futures, I found something really interesting looking at what they dealt with last year. You know, Pittsburgh was actually in the middle of the pack among NHL teams in terms of total man games lost by injury last.

Interesting. Now, with that being said, the Penguins did have the fourth highest, out of all the NHL teams, the fourth highest projected points in standings lost due to injuries last year. You know, you see a team like any other team in the NHL and they lose a fourth liner for half the season. Well, that's considered part of the man's game, man games lost. But they're not necessarily losing a Sydney Crosby or, you know, Brian Rust or an Evgeny Malkin or even a Teddy Bluger. I believe those are four guys right there in Crosby, Malkin, Rust, and Bluger who missed significant time last season. And those guys, their point shares, you know, the percentage of the team's points that come from those four guys is massive compared to a lot of these other teams.

And so, you know, you'd have to think, even if a Malkin or a Crosby goes down this year, this upcoming season for any period of time, you'd expect those other guys probably regret, you know, they probably avoid some bad injury luck this year. it's not going to always be the top four or five scores on the penguins missing 20 to 25 games every year. And last year, like I said, their injuries, the number of injuries was about the same, if not better than the rest of the league. It was just the guys who they are actually losing, was some really vital players. And so that's one of the things you kind of need to look at when you're handicapping a team's futures for this year is they might have missed a bunch of games for injuries last year. is just who they lost for injury really makes a difference in what you're projecting this year. So if, you know, if I'm looking at at the penguins and a use point, kind of an initial reaction on their season point total, I would certainly agree with you. I'd look at that over 101 and a half. I think if anything, this team should be the same, if not better than last year.

Yeah, and you're 100% right on, you know, who it was. You know, at times of like four of their top nine forwards were out, you know, half their defense was out for a time last year. Heck, they lost both their goalies in the playoffs to have the cherry on top. I mean, this is a yearly thing in Pittsburgh. You know, it's something that everyone's been trying to figure out what's been going on for almost the last decade at this point. I really don't get it honestly. But, you know, still a lot more to get to for this episode. We're going to do some player-centric bets probably or props coming up in the second segment.

But before I get to that, you know, bet online actually is your number one source for football betting info this season. You can find all the latest player developments, team matchups, news, podcasts, and in-depth articles and announcements. on every game out there. And as always, Ben-O-L-Line, remains your continued scores for all of your sports to-agion information with live betting and up-to-the-minute scores for every sport out there. It's the fastest and easiest of a way

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So, Jack, you know, obviously everyone, you know, I'm sure there are avid beters that listen to the show. I'm sure there are people that don't bet that listen to the show as well. But, you know, Sidney Crosby, I'm sure people are going to place a lot of bets on him that sees, you know, maybe for the, maybe not for the Rosh just because, you know, Connor McDavid at this point would have a word, Leon Dry Ciddle and stuff. But I think the main trophy that people will place bets on him is the heart. You know, he's coming to this season fully healthy. He's not going to miss the first few weeks with a wrist injury.

He came back last year. was his usual self, a point per game player yet again. I'm just wondering, you know, what the over under for him for points-wise is this year. And, you know, do you think he is a strong heart trophy contender yet again this year? Yeah. So Malkins, or excuse me, Crosby's heart trophy odds right now are 22 to 1 or plus 2,200. You know, you look at kind of his surroundings or the guys that he might be competing with just in terms of odds. he's he's it's not a surprise he's up there with the best of them now he's not anywhere near

the uh the favorites to win the hard trophy but he's you know he's around an alexander barcove and alex ovechkin and Mitch marner down there and that's not that's not necessarily a surprise you know if you look at his over under props he's at over under 31 and a half goals and over 83 and a half points now I think I misspoke earlier by the way he's at 33 to 1 not 22 to one to win the Hart trophy this year. So even better odds than what I had written down. If I am taking a player prop on Crosby or even an individual Penguins player this year, it's going to be on the over on those points over 84 and a half or 83 and a half, whatever you can find at Bet Online. I'm going to take that for a couple of reasons. You know,

last year he didn't really play until mid-November and he still put up 84 points after opening the season, even then the first seven games when he was back to last year, he only put up two points. And he didn't really look at himself. So that doesn't happen to him often. And if it does, you know, maybe you can't attribute it to that injury he was dealing with. But again, even then, he put up 84 points last year and would beat that over 83 and a half points. You know, what's funny, too, is even though he didn't come back until mid-November last year, people were still kind of talking about him as a heart trophy candidate by the time we got to March and even April. I obviously didn't end up winning it or really competing for it in the end, but he was certainly

playing to a level of a Sydney Crosby of old. It's not like he fell off with that injury, and it seemed like he didn't fall off with any of the previous injuries he was dealing with. I don't think that old age has hit him yet. I don't think it's going to hit him this year either, especially knowing that Letang and Malkin are back to play with him and that they improve the defense. they brought in a couple of role guys to maybe take up some penalty killing time as well. Maybe he does miss 10 to 15 games this year, but it's tough to handicap things like that, right? If you see a guy like a Sydney Crosby and you like his value to win the Hart Trophy at 33 to 1, take the risk. You're already risking a little bit to win a whole lot.

Take the risk on him to maybe miss 10 to 15 games. We certainly don't want any injuries to happen to a guy, but I don't want any listeners or viewers out there to be. swayed away from taking that bet just because of his injury history. He's still a top five, if not top three player in all of hockey. And he showed it last year. He's one of the most valuable players in the NHL. And I will say, you know, if I'm just mapping out his season, and this is part of the, this is really a primary reason why I love that over 84 and a half points for him. He's been well over an 84 point pace in every single season of his career. I went back. Yeah, I went back earlier today and was just looking at each season since he's coming to the NHL. He's been over a point

per game pretty significantly in every single year. Not to mention, this was just the 19th ranked power play in the NHL last season. Obviously, these superstars and these big time players for the Penguins put up a lot of their points on the power play. That power play didn't get off to a really good start last year without him, if I remember correctly. And they started to progress. They started to improve throughout the season. A 19th ranked power play with that lineup and with that forward group is not acceptable. It's not something that I think is going to be sustained either. I think they're going to improve and get back up towards 10th, 8th, maybe even worst case scenario, 12th this year, just in terms of the power play conversion percentage.

That is a big step up for him. That guy puts up however many points you want to look at on the power play each year. If they just improve a little bit on that power play, he's going to put up just even more points. And so, you know, again, he put up 84 points last. year, whether it's 83 and a half or 84 and a half, I've seen it move a little bit on him this year. He's going to go over that as long as he doesn't miss 25, 35, 45, 40 games this year. I think you feel pretty comfortable taking me over on that points prop right there. I will say one more thing, too. I'm personally going to stay off on his heart trophy odds myself, only because, again, you know, that is something you can kind of include injury concerns

with, but also, if getting Malkins back, Jake Gensel had an amazing year last year. There's a lot of pretty of really good players on that team that can kind of take the shine off of Crosby. When you're looking at taking heart trophy odds, you look at a guy, like a, like a Carrel Caprisoff, for example, who is the superstar on his team, not as much recognition for the other guys around him, whereas in Pittsburgh, you've got the mainstays of maybe not a Latourke. Peng is a hard trophy candidate, but certainly a Malkin and a guy like Gensel, who was over a point per game last year as well. So if I had to place a bet on a player for the Penguins this year,

it'd be on, on Crosby on that over points. Yeah. I mean, I definitely think he's going to, if you ask me, I think he's going to get close to 100, again, especially with scoring being so up now, and especially if he stays healthy. You know, you made a green point, two points in the first seven games last year. It's funny, he was hurt. Then he got COVID, so that really screwed him up. And then he was still basically just getting over that. Then once he fully did, he got past the wrist up. He was his same normal self. And he's been a point per game player ever since he came in the league,

which I think is just about tied for the most longest duration for a point for game season is in initial history at this. And one more thing I'll add to your point. When he got COVID, that's almost a bigger deal for a guy like Crosby than it is for anybody else. I know that sounds silly, but he's known for having maybe the best conditioning of any player in the NHL and to get back to the point where he's, comfortable after having COVID, that can mess with your lungs quite a bit.

So now that I know the NHL has kind of relaxed a lot of its COVID protocols in terms of traveling internationally up to Canada and back, hopefully that's something that will stay out of the way this year as well. Yeah, I'm definitely hoping so, that's for sure. I don't want any games canceled or postponed or, you know, players testing positive throughout the year for it, even though the winter is just coming up. So I'm sure there's going to be at least, you know, some cases around sports. Um, switching gears a little bit, um, Jack, you know, Mike Sullivan, Jack Adams.

Um, I don't know why this light behind me is just being really weird. And it's almost just like a go just keeps like flipping it on and off. I promise people that are watching, uh, the power has been on. It's just that light. It's just terrible with a plug. Anyways, I'm going to try not to move that much. Um, anyways, Mike Sullivan with the Jack Adams. Um, crazy enough, man, never's really a finalist for the award, despite being, I think,

one of the top three to top five best coaches in the league. Two seasons in a row, he has comfortably led them to the playoffs despite so many injuries to the team's top players. What do you think about, you know, those odds this year for the Jack Adams? And, you know, would you definitely touch those for him to finally be a finalist or potentially win the award? Yeah, you know, I was shocked too. The fact, not just that he hadn't won it yet, but he hasn't even been a nominee. He hasn't been a finalist yet. Yeah.

With everything he's done for that team, I believe now he's the second longest tenured coach in Penguin's history, if I remember correctly. It's shocking to me. I mean, even if you look at, he's plus 2,000 or 20 to 1 to win the award this year. He's only 28 to 1 or plus 2,800 to be the first head coach fired. So, you know, I don't know where the disrespect comes from. He's not getting fired after you just signed an extension. I'll say that.

He's not extended. So, you know, I don't know where the disrespect comes. from, you know, you look at just what Vegas is predicting for this team, and they certainly expect the Penguins to make the playoffs. So to put him so low is a bit surprising to me, it feels like if there is a year for him to win it, maybe this is the year. You know, he came in and had so much immediate success with this team. And in the last couple of years, the postseason has kind of been the big bugaboo for them, right? Just getting through the first round, first and second round and being competitive in the conference finals is the issue. But this guy, he's got his roster

back. He's got an improved defense that we can get into here in a minute. He's obviously got his core guys back. And this is kind of the year where it's like, all right, let's run it back. Maybe this is the last chance. We don't know. We don't care. Let's go for a cup here. And so in a division like the Metro where I think it makes sense that the hurricanes are the division favorites. I don't necessarily think that the Rangers should have better odds than the penguins to win the division. If that penguin's team can stay healthy throughout the year, I know that's a big if, but if they can stay healthy throughout the year and maybe push for the division title, maybe push the penguins for, excuse me, the hurricanes for first in that

division, he's going to be up there. He's going to have to be a top three, you know, a candidate at the end of the year. Unfortunately, for some, and maybe Sullivan is one of those guys, the Jack Adams, along with at times the Norris Trophy, is kind of seen as a lifetime achievement award, right? Where you might have deserved a coach like Sullivan probably deserved it four or five years ago, but it was never given, you know, that recognition because there might have been some more experienced coaches who, you know, had better careers or at least a more recognizable career. And you get great goaltending. Yeah, of course.

at least consistent goaltending, right? At least the penguins at times of it has a great goaltenders, but it wasn't consistent throughout the year. So if I had to pick a future on a coach to win the Jack Adams, it's kind of a volatile award. I'd be looking at Sullivan. If there's another guy I wanted to place a bet on to win the Jack Adams, it might be Paul Maurice in Florida.

Just after all the commotion of their first couple of weeks last year, Andrew Brunette's gone. They finally got a pretty big spotlight on them, and I'm a huge fan of Paul Maurice. I like what he did in Winnipeg, both in the late 2010s as well as even last year where he kind of had that wherewithal to step away when he felt like the locker room.

He kind of lost the locker room. He's at plus 800. The deal between the issue between Sullivan and a guy like Paul Maurice is Maurice, at least according to the national media, has all the superstar talent ever, right? That roster is supposed to be loaded with Barkhoff and in Kachuk and Ekblad. Whereas with Sullivan, you know, to a better's eye and to a Penguins fan's eye, he has all the talent that maybe a Florida would have too, right?

He's got Crosby, Malkin, Latang, and maybe even a better goaltending situation than Mabrofsky this year, I don't know. So it's odd to me that a guy like Maurice, although I'm a big fan of him, has such higher odds than a guy like Sullivan. I do like a bet on Sullivan, especially at 20 to 1. When you look at the guys that are around Sullivan, too, Jay Woodcroft and Edmonton, Bruce Cassidy with the Golden Knights and his first year there, and then Peter Lavillette with the capitals.

I certainly think Sullivan's a better coach than all three of those guys. It's just a matter of how this team stays healthy and how this team competes throughout the regular season for Sullivan. Yeah, and I think a lot of, you know, people that vote on the award, they just, you know, when all the guys come back, it's like, oh, well, you know, now he's just doing it with the stars. And it's like, well, you know, you're not really taking in the account of work that he's done with a bunch of Wilkesbury Scrant call-ups. Like he was doing at the beginning of the last season when the penguins were just actually still treading water without the big guns.

And then they'd come back. And then everyone, I guess goes, oh, you know, I guess the penguins are back to usual business. I just don't think he usually gets the credit that he deserves. I don't come. Oh, go ahead. What else do I need to do if you're Mike Sullivan? Yeah. Right.

You've dealt with injuries. You've had superstars. You've had minor leaguers being called up. night in and night out. You've had gold tending issues. You've won Stanley Cups. You've done just about everything. And so part of me thinks maybe this is the year the media kind of realizes, okay, this guy's a fantastic coach. He probably deserves it at this point in this career. Yeah, I mean, I'm hoping so. You know, I'm not holding my breath, but, you know, it's good that, you know, you're definitely on the Sullivan train. That's for sure. I got a couple other props to get

to with you coming up in the final segment for the show. And then we'll also get to probably some league-wide stuff before wrapping up. So stick around for that coming up in the final segment. All right, I'm back here on this episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I am your host, Hunter Hodes. We're going to follow me on Twitter. Hunter Hodes can also follow the shows, Twitter, I want to score Penguins. And of course, thank you all so much for making this your first listen of the day. So, and while I did my bold predictions segment about a week or two ago, Jack, and one of the things I had actually was, I think Jake Gensel's going to finally score 50 this year. Had 40 last year. He's had two 40 goal seasons as a penguin. He's the only, he's the

Only player outside of Crosby, Malcon, to score 40 twice in the Cid and Gino era. And I think if he can be fully healthy this year, not miss any games, he has an opportunity to fully join the 50 goal club, just because he's that talented, you know, the smallest bits of space. He'll put the buck in the back of the net.

What do you think about those odds for him? And do you think that's a pretty distinct possibility that, you know, he not only scores 40 this year, but he pots 50. Well, you know, you can jump on it right now. I'll say this. You can jump on him to score over 38 and a half goals right now. That's easy.

And you can actually bet on him. They've still got him at over under 79.5 points, so not even at a point per game, despite being over a point per game last year. I do like Gensel, one of the first things you kind of look at, if you're a statistics-driven sports better, especially with player props and odds like that, even on a night-in-out basis,

if you want to bet on a player to score a goal, for example, you need to look at their shooting percentage, especially the last couple of years. So for his career, Gensel's a 15.9% shooter. Last year, he was actually below career average. He was at 15.2%. He obviously put up, or he tied his career high in goals at 40. I think he'd probably go over that this year.

He's, you know, he hasn't dealt with as many injury issues as a Crosby or as a Brian Rust or something like that. He played 76 last year, and he had the two weird, you know, COVID shortened seasons. But the two years before that, he played all 82 in the regular season for the Penguins. So just looking at his numbers from last year, he still put up 40. He only put up 44 assists, but shooting below career average and still being the possession driving player that he is, he's obviously going to get a ton of power play time.

Again, I think that power play should be and has to be improved as well, which should contribute to his goal total. If you're really feeling confident in bold, especially as a Penguins fan, he's 33 to 1 or plus 3,300 to win the Rocket Richard Trophy to have most goals in the NHL if you think he can beat out on Austin Matthews. And he's also 66 to 1, which is the same odds as of Gennie Malkin to win the Hart Trophy as well. So again, I think I would lay off some of some Penguins forwards and playing on the Hart Trophy just because all three or four of the big guys can kind of take some attention away from the other ones. But I do like Gensel this year. It seemed like he didn't have any issues when Crosby was out or Malkin was out in scoring goals last year. If you're still putting up 40, I think you're going to have no problem doing it, assuming those two guys are going to be coming into the season fully healthy.

I think he's also one of those guys, just on a personal note, who is going to continue to be considered one of the most underrated players in the NHL to the point where. he's finally properly rated, but he's also a top 10 player in the NHL. I think in the next couple of years, he's going to be kind of like an Alexander Barkoff for four or five years. Everybody keeps saying he's the most underrated guy in the NHL, and then all of a sudden we turn around, we look at each other and we think, oh yeah, this guy's no, he's just a top 15, top 10 player in the NHL. He's pretty properly rated.

We just didn't realize he was this good until now. So I think that's a pretty good bet. You know, over 38 and a half goals is a lot. it's just that he's one of the most reliable guys on that roster. So it's tough to, you know, it's tough to bank on him in 10, 15 games to an injury or anything like that. Yeah, I mean, usually, you know, when this team needs a goal, he's usually the first one that will give it to them.

You know, I think over 38 I would probably take pretty quickly. You know, it's funny, you know, for a long time, everyone was considering him a product of Crosby. Well, you know, I think even playing with him getting Malkin, he still kicks a lot of butt. Are there any other, you know, kind of props, futures that you're paying attention to with this team going into this season that you like? You know, as far as individual odds or individual players to bet on, I'd say those two are the two that I really like. Gensel over 38 and a half goals and Crosby over 83 and a half points.

There are no penguins in the Calder Trophy odds, which isn't necessarily a surprise. You know, you're looking at, you've got, bet online actually just came out this week with a bunch of, of player-specific futures on bulltenders as well. You know, this is a type of bet I typically stay away from, but if you're interested in it, the over or under on Tristan Jari's goals against average this year is at 2.53. So if you're interested in something like that, you can take the over or under there. Chris LaTang is at 28 to 1 to win the Norris. I've been telling everybody I know and every, every podcast I'm on to stay away from

the Norris trophy this year. I think Cala McCar right now is sitting a plus 1.50, which is just about the highest odds I've ever seen for an individual trophy. That's insane to me. Not surprised. And even if a guy like him goes down, you know, it's still kind of a three-headed monster out there with him, Roman Yossi and Victor Hedman, with Adam Fox is in fourth, I guess, but it's probably a distant fourth, in my opinion. So, you know, you'd be banking on an injury to a McCar or somebody like that to be bent on the Bezna as well. Well, you know, Tristan Jarre is also 28 to 1 to win the Vezna. I'm going to stay away from that one myself.

I think that's another one of those kind of career or lifetime achievement awards. You know, you kind of look at an Andre Vasselowski or an Igor Shisterkin was just out of this world last year, so maybe he's got a pretty good chance to win it. But I'm going to stay away from that one as well. You know, in terms of props maybe around the league, we can get into that in a minute. I've got a couple of Calder Trophy guys that I'm interested in. but I do want to mention too, I am going to be playing personally that Eastern Conference future on the Penguins at 12 to 1.

You know, the more I think about it, the more I hear from Penguins fans and yourself, maybe they don't beat out the hurricanes for the division. With the injury history and bad luck that this team has had throughout the regular season, that's fine, but I'm comfortable with them not having home ice advantage or even being just dealing with being a wild card throughout the postseason. I'm okay with that. I think the team is as well. them doing before, obviously. And I think, I do think the penguins are a better team than the

Rangers this year. You know, you can call it a fluke all you want to, but the fact of the matter is they didn't have their star goaltender, the number one goaltender, when they needed them in the postseason last year. I'm just, I don't think that's going to happen again. I think that's a, that's a really rare occurrence in the NHL, even when these guys are in typical play through it. So you know, Jari's injury last year, it must have been pretty bad. You know, a couple of other things too just on that that eastern conference future you don't have the distractions of malkin and latang potentially leaving in the offseason anymore you know those guys are back the team doesn't have to worry about it coach doesn't have to worry about it front office doesn't uh this seems built

for the postseason man i i really am a believer in them uh growing up a national predators fan and still to an extent a national predators fan a couple years ago for that stanley cup about i'm not I'm not certainly a fan of the Penguins as a hockey fan, but I can certainly see them beating out a team like the Lightning or the Leafs in the conference final and representing the East and the top. And I think, you know, that music, I think all Penguins fan years, I think everyone wants to see, at least in this fan base. You know, they want to see them get the fourth one of the Cicidgino era,

which would tie Gretzky and Messier for that they won, which I think that they're definitely chasing after. And, you know, I guess, you know, we can't get into those, NHL, you know, around the league that's that you do like. First off, just real quick, did you have any like breakout players for this team that you're eyeing on this year? You know, I don't know if I'd call him a breakout player, but I've been the biggest Ricard Raquel fan since I saw him come into the league with Anaheim. I'm a huge fan of him. I love to watch him play.

You know, he's a veteran at this point, so I don't know if I'd call him a breakout player. I did love the deal for Ty Smith, for Don Marino. I loved Ty Smith in New Jersey. He's kind of like a Jeff Petrie, who the Penguins picked up in the offseason as well. By all accounts, it was a down year for Smith last year, but who didn't have a down year on the Devils, right? Just like it was a down year for Petrie, but who didn't have a down year on the Montreal Canadiens last year? He's a fun player to watch. I think he's going to be a, you know, a JV version of a Chris Latang.

He's mobile. He's, you know, he's a former first round pick. He's supposed to have kind of the vision offensively of a puck moving defenseman, a puck moving number one defenseman like a Latang. So, you know, if I had to give you one Penguins player to keep an eye on, I'd say Smith. I think if I remember correctly, you know, he had a really good start to the year. His, you know, when he first got called up to the NHL and then kind of tapered off

a little bit in the second half when teams kind of started to expose him. So Ty Smith's my guy, if I'm, if I'm, you know, a Penguins fan this year, I think he's hopefully. going to jump up into the top four a couple of times throughout the year. Interesting. Honestly, as a player, I didn't expect you to say, I think, you know, for Smith this year, they're going to probably start him on the bottom pairing with the On Rootah. They're going to try to babysit him a little bit. Kind of like what they did with Mike Matheson when he was acquired, he was kind of a wreck in his own zone, and then was able to actually jump up in the top four

sometimes that season, but, you know, mostly the next season before he was dealt. So, you know, that would be obviously the best case if he is able to jump up into the top four. Aspen, not least though, Jack, we'll go around the league. I'll hand the floor to you here. What are some of the big ones that you're looking at? Yeah, so I'll give you guys there for, and they're kind of all over the place. So, you know, I was talking with somebody the other day, and I was looking through the Calder Trophy odds.

I know there aren't any penguins on there, but there are certainly there are some opportunities to make some money on some young players. The first guy that really stuck out to me was a Marco Rossi in Minnesota. He's a young, really talented winger coming on to the team this year. Looks like he's pretty much locked up a roster spot this year in the bigs. And so, you know, he's at 14 to 1 right now. I'm looking at the rest of the guys in front of him.

He's got the seventh high, seventh or eighth highest odds to win the Calder right now at 14 to 1. But you look at the six guys in front of him, and not a single one of those guys is on a team that's projected to make the playoffs this year. You got Mason McTavish, Owen Power, Maddie Baneers, William Eklund in San Jose, Cole Perfetti and Kent Johnson. None of those guys are on teams that I personally think are going to be very good this year, or Vegas thinks is going to be very good this year. And so I bring that up because when a young guy like that gets an opportunity in a lineup, that's fast-paced, that's putting up a ton of goals.

They were one of four or five teams to put up over 3.7 goals per game last year, where the wild. And not only that, he's also in a team that are in a line. with the top six that seems pretty flexible, right? You've got Ryan Hartman and Joel Erick are kind of the top two centers on that team, but both of those guys can and have played third and fourth center minutes throughout their career. And so you see that on the wings as well for Minnesota. It seems like, you know, in addition to that, a Matt Succarello goes down quite a bit with an injury, unfortunately in the regular season. Kevin Fiala is obviously gone.

So the opportunity is there for Rossi. He's going to be on a high flying office. He's going to be on a high flying offense. He's going to be on a power play that certainly puts up a ton of goals. I think hopefully, you know, if Matt Boldie doesn't secure that last power play spot for the forward group, maybe Rossi gets an opportunity there. And they're going to be playing competitive hockey in February, March, and in April, the end of the regular season, or the wild. And that's something I really look for in a young player like that. If he can work his way into the second or third line in the regular season for that team, even in November or December, that means he's probably going to have an opportunity to continue playing with the NHL roster

and maybe even getting top six minutes come March and April when a lot of these other guys are kind of out of the playoff race. So Marco Rossi's guy I look at. And then as far as the Hart Trophy, you know, I was looking through the Hart Trophy odds the other night. And I was shocked. I would say shocked. I was excited to see a guy like Jack Eichel at 28 to 1 to win the Hart Trophy.

And if I'm looking through right now, I'm wondering if things have moved they have. He's actually moved down to 40 to 1 or plus 4,000 to win the heart trophy over in Vegas. Now, I like Eichol for a couple of reasons. You know, obviously he's passed the whole back surgery thing. He's past the whole big trade from Buffalo to Vegas. But another thing, too, is he doesn't have Max Patruetti there to kind of steal the limelight if you want to put it that way. He's actually on a team that doesn't have a whole lot of recognizable. bold names in the forward group.

You know, other than a Mark Stone, he's got Jonathan Marchesow who led the team in points last year. Eichl is certainly a much more recognizable name than a Marche so, and maybe at least to some American fans than a Stone. I just think he's finally got that monkey office back of the surgery and of the trade. And I remember, you know, watching his first game back for Vegas last year. I think he took two or three penalties in the first period. I think he was a minus one or minus two.

He just didn't look great. And he took him about a week, week and a half. And then when he settled in, all of a sudden, he was probably the best player, if not one of their best players, the rest of the regular season. So if Vegas can contend for the second or third spot in that Pacific Division, I'd be interested in Eichel now at 40 to 1, which I think are great odds to win the Hart Trophy.

You know, I'll give you a couple of futures as well just on teams. You know, I looked the other night. I think there's great value on the St. Louis Blues at 35 to 1 or plus 3,500 to win the Stanley Cup. It's a team that's been there before. If they can just get over the hump that is the Colorado Avalanche, I think they certainly would be a team to be reckoned with come in the cup final. And then, you know, one that's a little bit juicy, you know, you've got to risk quite a bit to win your money back.

But the LA Kings are only minus 175 to win to make the playoffs at all, whether it's through, you know, through the Pacific Division or through a lot. And I just, you know, I look at this Pacific Division. I'm not too high on Vegas, but if Vegas is going to make the playoffs, I think Ikel is going to have to lead the way there. I just look at, you know, I look at Edmonton and Calgary are certainly going to be the top two teams there. I think it's just a battle for the third and probably fourth spot, you know, third spot for the division, one or two wildcard spots between L.A., Vegas and maybe Vancouver. But again, I just don't know if Vancouver addressed enough to compete in that Pacific division. So yes, it's minus 175 on the Kings to make the playoffs, but that's obviously an improved team.

They picked up Kevin Fiala in the offseason. They've got a growing and really vastly improving defensive group as well. And their forward depth is just, it's probably one of the most underrated forward groups in the NHL. So, you know, eat the juice there. I think minus 175 on the Kings to make the playoffs is a pretty good bet as well. That's solid. Yeah, I'm also pretty high on the Kings, honestly, this year. And they're getting Drew Doughty back.

If he plays the way he did last year, and, you know, I thought, you know, I'm someone who thought Drew Dowdy was washed going into last year. He was bad. Me too. Me too. But he was awesome last year. He plays like that again for a whole season. There's no doubt they're going to make the playoffs and potentially even get to the Pacific. And if Jonathan Quick has another decent season because he looked washed going to last year too. You know, that's a problem time. He wasn't there just yet. That's a pretty good goaltening tandem, though, as Quick is on, just like the penguins. They've got a backup that can step in and be pretty confident in his own right. in Cal Peterson.

You know, I just, they've got so many young players on that team that are all top, you know, first or second round draft picks who already have a full year of NHL experience, you know, coming into this year. So, you know, I did agree with you on Dowdy last year going into the season I thought he was done for. And, you know, now he gets, he got quite a bit of time last year and now a full off season to recover as well. I just don't see that team falling off.

I think they're on the up and up here. Yeah. I totally agree with that. And that blues bet is pretty interesting, too. You know, I think they're a decent team. And I think they should be able to get into the playoffs in the Central. But, Jack, I really appreciate you coming on the podcast tonight. There's a lot of really good stuff on the Penguins and things around the league.

Just let the listeners know where, you know, they can find your work and, you know, where they can hear you on your podcast. Yeah, well, I'm grateful you brought me on. This is going to be a really fun hockey season. and it feels like it's crept up on us, at least the entire month of September has flown by. You know, we're here, we're at Paramount Sports.

Lee Sterling oversees the whole operation here. He's the, he's the football, basketball, UFC guy, and I'm kind of the hockey and baseball guy. So I'm going to be entering my third year now with Paramount Sports, handicapping the NHL. You know, the last two years, our first two years doing it,

we landed first overall at Covers.com on a leaderboard of about 40 NHL handicappers. And so we're going for the top spot again. We're really excited. We had a really great couple of years. We actually grade our plays on a 10 to 50 unit scale for our clients. Last year, we had a 50 unit max play future on the Arizona Coyotes under 69.5 regular season points. That one was locked up, I think, by January. Nice.

And then we had a future on a long-shot future, I guess, on the Colorado Avalanche to win the Stanley Cup preseason at plus 550. So we had a great year last year just in terms of futures, let alone in terms of betting the individual games. So if you want to learn more about getting involved and getting signed up or buying our package, you can give us a visit at paramount sports.com. You can find the NHL package for the full season through the Stanley Cup, including our futures for clients for just $7.97 for the full year. I'm obviously tweeting about games night in and night out. You can give me a follow at Paramount NHL.

And then, of course, Div Lee Sterling, who oversees the whole operation, a follow at Paramount Sports. Even then, if you want to learn more about betting on the NHL or just sports, betting in general and maybe how you can get signed up. Give us a call at the office as well, 800, 400, 9741. There you all go, guys. You can call, you know, you can follow Jack. He does great work.

So again, man, I really appreciate you coming on for tomorrow's show. I believe the plan is to have Josh E.O. You know, over his thoughts on training camp and everything else going into the season. But again, Jack, really appreciate you coming on. That was a great conversation. definitely going to have you on again, probably at some point during the season to catch up and see if you're maybe picking up some other bets and, you know, think about some other stuff regarding the Pittsburgh Penguins. So until then, hope you all have a great rest of your night,

and I'll talk to you all on Friday.