Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Jake Guentzel's season review, plus some Norris thoughts...

Episode Date: June 16, 2021

Did Mike Vellucci really almost get hired? Hunter explains Elliotte Friedman's report in 31 thoughts as the Blue Jackets interviewed him twice before going in-house for their coaching hire. Would it have been a big blow to Pittsburgh? Hunter also explains that as well, plus where that replacement hire would've came from if he left. He also gets into some talk about the Norris Trophy and how Victor Hedman shouldn't anywhere near the top three. Did none of the writers pay attention this season? Finally, it's Jake Guentzel's season review. How good was he in the playoffs? What are expectations for him next season? Will his playoff scoring come around again?Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Your Locked-on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Your team every day. This is Tuesday evening episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow the show's Twitter at L.O. underscore Penguins.

I know I'm coming in at you guys. A little bit later in the evening had some stuff to do today. I actually just finished Moe in the lawn because, you know, My parents come back from Turks and Caicos tomorrow because for some reason they were going. I think it was for my mom's early 50th birthday present. So how to get that done, but we still have some good hockey top coming here. We're going to touch on. I don't know if I gave my thoughts on the Norris ballot.

I might have done it last week. I might not have. I'm still going to give my thoughts on why it's kind of stupid that Victor Headman is there. We're also going to discuss some stuff. That was in Elliott Freeman's 31 thoughts today. And we're going to continue our season reviews for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Today's will be Jake Gensel, and I'm sure that's going to be a great conversation. So let's start out with the, well, actually, I'm going to start out with the Masterton.

So the Masterton Trophy was officially announced tonight, the winner. Oscar Lindblon, very well deserved with what he came back from with cancer. The other finalists were Matt Dumbah and Patrick Marlowe. This is an award that has a lot of the voters have gotten wrong many times over the years. Remember, Crystal Tang didn't even win it when he came back from a stroke. Pascal DuPui didn't want it when he came back. he overcame blood clot, same with Matt Succarello. I think that one went to

Devin Doudnick for remembering how to play hockey again, and I think the other one went to Yarmir Yager for just being old. And, you know, that basically would have been the same thing if Patrick Marlow won the award this year. It would just be that he's old and that he's continuing to play. I think Dumbull would have been a much better choice than Marlow. But, you know, the obvious winner was Oscar Lindblum. Kudos to him.

You know, he came back from, you know, cancer, and he's just a really underrated player, I think, around the league. So, congrats to him. I think a lot of the other big-time awards get announced during the Stanley Cup final. I think the King Clancy was announced yesterday, Pecoranine, winning that one very well deserved, I thought, for that one, too. But now let's just get into some Norris talk. So Adam Fox was obviously a clear-cut case to be nominated. I think he will win the award, and he should win the award with a season that he had.

And, oh, yeah, he's probably going to ask for Max Turn on his next contract with the Rangers, and I wouldn't be surprised if it's 9 to 10 million per. Kale McCar, very well-deserved two. He's probably going to ask for Max's term and a whole lot of money on his next contract, 2000 Elliot Freeman's 31 thoughts today. And it sounds like they prefer a term over a bridge deal because if you just do a bridge deal,

you're going to have to pay him even more at the end of that. Because say McCar is just as good these next two years as he was this year or probably even better, which is, I think, going to be the case. You're probably going to have to pay him over $10 million per. Right now, maybe you can get away with $9 million. million per maybe a little bit below that. But if he has two very similar years to this year, or even better, as I just said, you're going to have to pay him basically anything he wants.

But, you know, he's going to be a top five defenseman in this league for many years to come. Some grats on him for me nominated. The third one was Victor Hedman. If I had a ballot, I would have had Charlie McAvoy on there. He had better underlying numbers and just better, you know, counting stats as a whole. But the biggest reason why Victor Hedman was nominated for the Norris is because of players. reputation. He's kind of like I was listening to Puck Soup, I think,

yesterday with Greg Wajinsky and Ryan Lambert and Sean, down goes brown from Twitter and the Athletic. And, you know, I think Greg and Ryan made a great point. You know, it's basically like the Patrice Bergeron-esque, you know, for Hedman, that he's always going to be on the Norris ballot because you all know he's one of the five best

defense in the league, as, you know, Patrice Bergeron is with one of the five best defensive forwards in the league. I mean, I know Bergeron, you know, the Selkie trophy is named after him at this point, but it should not be Norris wise for Victor Hedman. Headman even admitted this year that he was playing hurt. It looks like a hip injury.

But the fact that he was nominated for it over someone, you know, like I said, like Charlie McAvoy or even, you know, Ryan Poolock or Shea Theodore or a couple others, you know, Jacob Slavin with how good he was in Carolina. It just goes to show you that a lot of these writers and a lot of these people that cover the sport don't pay enough attention. I know Sean on Puck'sup was talking about how, you know, They do take it serious, and I didn't have a ballot this year, but when I've had a ballot, you know, I spoke into people who, everyone says they take it serious. But I don't know how much I believe of that, because you should not have Victor Hedman on your Norris ballot this year.

He was not good enough. He missed time. I mean, he doesn't still look right in the playoffs. I think game two is underway right now between the lightning and the others. And Tampa Bay had a four on three power play. I don't know. Well, yeah, Tampa Bay just had five shots in their power play chance, and they still didn't score. of just being insane just like he was against the ruins.

But anyway, you know, going back to my original point. It's just, it's frustrating to see, you know, Hedman basically get there based off reputation alone, but the people aren't digging into just how off of the season it was. And, you know, he's definitely going to revert back to his last season form next year where he'll be deserving of getting a Norris trophy finalist spot and probably even winning the Norris because, like I said, he's one of the top five best events in hockey.

When he's on his full A game like he was last year, He probably is the best defenseman hockey. But this is on a year-to-year basis. You know, he honestly would not have been on my ballot if I had a ballot for the PHWA. And I think more of these voters that just, you know, that cover the sport, you know, whether it's an announcer, you know, a writer, you know, someone else that covers the sport, they need to do a better job of digging into the numbers and not basing it just off the eye test.

Because if you look at his analytics, they were not nearly as good as the, you know, his expected goals four was down. His scoring chances four per 60 was down. He only was really racking up assists this year. You know, a lot of last year, he had a lot more goals last season than he did this season. I know I'm citing counting stats. But, you know, like I said, just go to his course. Go to his Fenwick.

Dig into his shot share. And, you know, with what Tampa Bay has with, you know, the expected goals for when he's on the ice versus when he's off the ice and how many of the actual goals Tampa Bay had when he was on ice this year. And they were down this year from, you know, last year, but a lot of those writers just, you know, they don't look at the analytics, they just go based off their eye test, they go based off some people, I guess, that maybe cover the team, they just don't do enough of the work that they shouldn't. It's like, you are paid to cover the floor. I know I am paid to give you all this podcast five days a week during in season, three days

a week during the off season. I know that's probably going to change as we go into July or August when we get to three days a week, but I actually try to do my research and not just look at the counting stats and not just use my eye test. I think, I I've said this so many times on the podcast, if this is your first time listening, if you are not using even a little bit of analytics when you are watching hockey, you know, you are behind the curve. Adapt or die, as they say in Moneyball, you are just behind their curve and you're going to continue to be behind the curve for as long as you just disassociate analytics from the game of hockey. They're not going away. They're only going to continue to be more important, especially as front offices expand to allow more people with an analytic background into the front office. Penguins literally have San Ventura and Catarina Wu in their front office.

I mean, Carolina, I think as Eric Tolski, I think the capitals have someone from an analytics site in their front office. I know Tampa Bay does. I'm pretty sure Seattle has a good analytics team as well. And like I said, you're going to continue to see more of these teams invest into analytics as they get more popular. You know, you don't listen to Pierre McGuire, any of these weird naysayers or these boomers, as I like to call them. You know, just when you're evaluating defensemen or just any player, don't just look at. the counting stats. It's a lazy way to do it. Dig into the numbers a little bit more. You know, ask fans of the team, you know, that, you know, are more numbers based about the player.

And I guarantee you will get a lot more knowledge that way than if you just used your same old boring I attest. But that's just my opinion, at least. It's up to whoever wants to listen to that, you know, that listens to this podcast. But that's my little rant about the Norse Trophy. Coming up in the next segment, we are going to touch on some stuff in Elliot Friedman's 31 thoughts. one of them being penguin related and something that I honestly could not believe when I read it. But before we do get that,

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When he was talking about Columbus hiring their coach, it was basically, I think it was Brad Larson. He was an assistant to John Horrello, which was a weird decision. I really don't know what the blue jackets are doing there, and we all know they're going to stink. The Metro is going to be a really tight division with the realignment going back to how it normally is. But Columbus is definitely going to be one of the basement dwellers of that division, division, excuse me, especially after they trade Seth Jones, but, you know, getting back into it, He says before promoting Larsen, the Blue Jackets took a long look at Gerard Galant, who of course is now with the New York Rangers. I'm going to touch on that in the second.

They also twice interviewed Pittsburgh assistant coach Mike Belucci. Okay, so that is probably the weirdest thing I have read about the Penguins in quite some time. I have no idea how Mike Volucci gets two interviews to be the Columbus Blue Jackets head coach. I mean, did Yarmokika-Gelion not see how bad the Penguins penalty kill was for this entire season? and they were ranked on the bottom third of the week. Basically, the whole time. And their wedge plus one, as Jesse Marshall likes to call it, was not working. And they were giving up a lot of goals to the high danger areas.

So I really don't know what Kikin Lion saw in Mike Volucci. It actually would have been a service to the Penguins if they did take Volucci off their hands. They could have just promoted someone else from, you know, maybe Wilkes Ferry that's doing a good job, or just someone even outside the organization, which I would have been fine with. Losing Valuci would not have been. a big deal at all. So that was definitely a bit interesting to me as I read that. There's also interesting stuff about the Rangers. So before they hired Gerard Gallant, Friedman reported that apparently they were hoping that Mike Sullivan was going to become available. But as soon as they

were told no, they went to Brindamore and then when they were told, no, that's when they hired Galant. This is the biggest reason, or one of the biggest reasons why I love that the Penguins are keeping Mike Sullivan for this season. I mean, you know, If he were made available, I definitely think he was probably going to be the guy for the Rangers. I mean, I know they're going to spend it as, you know, Galant was the guy all along. But best be sure, you know, if you're giving me one of those two coaches and you're putting them side by side, I'm taking Mike Sullivan over Gerard Galant 100 out of 100 times. I think the New York Rangers would think that as well.

Sullivan is a two-time Stanley Cup champion. His players play for him. He runs a great system. He's a brilliant tactician. and he definitely would bring results to that Rangers team. I'm really happy that the Penguins did not make Sullivan available just for that very reason. I mean, it would have been stupid to fire him regardless, but having him go to a division rival, you know, especially one of the Penguins, I think it's probably one of their top three biggest rivals around the league.

That definitely would have been a huge blow. And then, I mean, you're stuck with hiring who, like Frickon John Torrella or something like that, or Rick Talkett, who it sounds like is going to be the Seattle Cracken head coach. I really don't understand all the love about Rick Talk, you know, just spinning this back towards the Penguins a bit. I understand what he did here was really nice with Phil Kessel. But other than that, what has Rick Tock had done to warrant all this huge love affair for me? He didn't really get a lot of good results in Arizona. Apparently, he's been interviewing for a whole lot of gigs.

He interviewed, I think, in Columbus. He interviewed in Buffalo. I think he interviewed in New York as well. And now, apparently, like I said, it sounds like that they want, him to go to the crack in. And it just, it really makes no sense to me because he's not really not accomplished a damn thing as a coach. So to see all this, this huge love affair around him is really odd.

As it looks like, as I look up to my TV, Braden Point has given the lightning a one-nothing lead over the Islanders. And, oh, wow, this is pretty big breaking news. It sounds like Ilya Sorokin is coming in for Semyon Varlamma because of a pretty joke of a call. I'm watching this on replay right now. Pelich just pushes Braden Point into Varland. Waramoff injured his own goalie in the process, and they're calling Braden Point for a penalty

there, which makes absolutely no sense. I don't even know how this is goalie interference. This might be one of the worst calls I've ever seen in my life. It looks like Bruce Cassidy might have been right about this New York sane stuff, but, you know, not good that Samuel on Barlowemov is hurt, you know, hoping for the best friend, but, no, Ilya Sorokin will be coming into the game right now for the founders as they are down one-nothing in the first period of game. to after taking game one, you know, but going back to what I was saying, again, you know, just to wrap this up.

Just weird that Rick Tocket is getting this huge love affair for not really doing anything as an NHL head coach. Looking some other stuff here. There was some flyers stuff in here, so I'm going to touch a little bit on that for the podcast. It sounds like the Flyers were thinking of something big. It's not going to be Dougie Hamilton because that actually makes a lot of sense for them. I think they have the farm system to do it. They have the picks. They have the players.

But it sounds like Chuck Fletcher is not going to do it, but at all. but they may potentially do Seth Jones, which I would laugh my butt off if they did acquire Seth Jones for a whole lot of picks and prospects. And they're also potentially looking at Matt Dumbah. That makes a little bit more sense. I don't think he's, you know, that good. He's definitely not as overrated as Seth Jones, but I don't think he's like that good, if you know what I mean.

There's other stuff in here. Buffalo News, Lance Lysalski, is reporting that New Jersey has interested in Rasmus, Ristowin. I mean, I don't even know how teams are interested in him. He's just been awful, basically, for his entire career. No other Penguin stuff, though, here in Friedman's 31 Thoughts. It's very quiet for this team. And, you know, I like it like that. Ron Hextall is going to do things in the shadows.

I did read something from somewhere just a couple of days ago that it sounds like, you know, according to what they were told, this is really the Hextall show and that Burke is basically there. Just as a buffer between him and Morehouse, so that Morehouse doesn't get in the way of what Hextall wants to do. I mean, this team is under his control. And I think this is the way, I like it. You know, we don't really need a GM going out into the media and speaking every week about, oh, I'm going to make all these changes. I'm going to do this.

I'm going to do that. You know, Hextall, he's just quietly biting his time for the right thing to come along. And then I think he will strike. You know, he's being patient. That's exactly what this organization needs. They don't need someone going out there and making a move just for the sake of making a move. And speaking of this great quote today from Mark Cuban, you know, speaking of Freepin's 31 thoughts, you know, and making a move for the sake of making a move.

move. I think he was asked by a reporter, you know, are you going to change coaches? And, you know, he said, you know, you don't make it change just for the sake of making it change. You know, he even said, unless there's a clear cut upgrade out there, the grass is rarely greener on the other side. And it's like, thank you, Mark Cuban. You know, you're someone that actually gets it when it comes to that. You know, I wish you could tell that to all these weird yinzers in the penguin's fan base that just want to fire Mike Sullivan for the sake of firing Mike Sullivan, even though his goaltending let him down. I mean, you know, I have people tell me today that they should just, you know, they should have fired in midseason or one of these last couple seasons

mid-season. It's like, like, I wish you ran the organization then, because this team would be ran to the ground if you were the general manager. It just, it really makes no sense that some people treat Mike Sullivan like he's the second coming of John Tortorella. I really don't understand it. But, again, I am glad that Mike Sullivan is the coach of this team and will be, at least for the next season, you know, if they bow out again, though, I definitely think that

there will be some serious questions as to what's going to happen with his tenure for future. But I think that does it for this segment. There wasn't really too much else to talk about on Freeman's 31 thoughts. I mean, there's, you know, some small stuff, you know, stuff about the Bruins. Freeman also suggests that Florida may ask about Patrick Loney.

I mean, the Blue Jack is just going to blow it up anyway. I touched on earlier in the episode. They're going to be one of the two teams in the Metro next season who are not good. And, you know, speaking of the Metro, just to end this segment, the division is going to be a blood bath for Pittsburgh next year. I mean, now you have, you know, of course, the penguins, you know, obviously you take the Bruins out, but

Carolina is going to be a contender. Washington is still good. The Islanders are going to be there. Obviously, the Rangers are going to be a lot better with Gerard Valon. That's a 40-year deal. That's going to be very frustrating to play against for the next four years. And Galant is one of the best coaches in the game. It's actually criminal that he was not hired these last couple of years.

He's going to get results out of the Rangers. In my opinion, I think the Rangers are a playoff team next season. It is going to be a different matchup for Pittsburgh next season than it was this past season. That's for sure. I mean, the Rangers, they definitely have their struggles against Pittsburgh this year. The Penguins took six out of eight against them. But next year, you know, as the divisions go back to normal, and, you know, I think we see, you know, four to five games.

However, it's going to be, it's definitely going to be a lot tougher for the Penguins to be the Rangers. And then, of course, you know, you have Philadelphia. You know, you never know how they're going to be. You know, one year they're really good. One year, they're not. So we'll see what happens when it comes to that. I'm actually just watching the Tampa Bay Lightning Power Play right now because they did end up getting a make-up call on that awful one where the islanders tied the game

thanks to Bladen Point's ridiculous call for goaltender interference. You know, Downers just have a huge horseshoe stuck up their ass. It's been that way basically all playoffs thus far. And though before we do get to the next segment, it's time to talk about. Bet Online, the fastest and easiest way to bid on your sports action. Baseball season is in full swing. You can track all the action at Ben Online. You can get all the latest news, odds and info for all your sporting needs, including MLB, NBA, NH&RUFC action.

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I'm your host, Hunter Hoodies. I'm going to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hoodies. Follow the show's Twitter at L.O. underscore Penguins. So let's get into our next season review, and that is Jake Anseland. For some reason, people are wanting to trade him after this season, which just makes no sense. This is the thing I will say about that.

Before you get into his stats and everything with what he did this season. Playoff scoring is very strict. I mean, Matt Barzel did not even play well against the Penguins. I only didn't think he scored in that series. Now he has nine playoff points in 12 games. So, you know, he definitely heated up against the ruins, and he's played well against the lightning so far going into game too. But that's what happens to people?

I mean, Jake Gensel had, what, 23 goals in his first 37 playoff games? Of course, he was going to dry up. I mean, this is not someone who's going to score at that clip his entire playoff career. There's always going to be some aggression. Yes, it was going to happen. But he's still getting the chances. The puck is just not going in to the back of the net. That happens in the playoffs.

You know, I know the Penguins, you know, their debt players even stepped up in the playoffs. It was just the goaltending faltered. But you can't say that Gensel didn't play well when he was top three in every statistical category on the team when it was expected goals for, individual scoring chances for, high danger. chances for overall shot attempts for per 60 minutes. I mean, he was getting a lot of quality licks. Looks, excuse me, but the puck was just not going in the back of the net. And that happens.

You go to Natural Stratrick and you look. I know he only had one point in the six games, but, you know, he still had 58% of the shot attempts when he was on the ice. If you go to his expected goals percentage, 54.4% of those scoring chances for, 60% of the schooling chances for 55E. Remember people, I believe that led the team at 5E5. As for high danger, 53% of the high danger chances when he was on the ice. That's second only to, actually that's third, only to his 61.7% back from 2018.

This was a player that was one of the best players in the playoffs. Now, if you go to his regular season numbers, if I do this quickly here, on Natural Statrix. So 51.6% of the shot attempts for Corsi, 53.9% of the actual goals for his expected goals here was a bit down at 49.1%. But scoring chances for about 52%, which is in line for basically his career average. As for high danger, he did concede a little bit more overall with high danger chance for 48.5%. That's the second lowest of his career. And then for actual high danger goals for, the penguins had 54.3% of the high danger goals.

for while he was on the ice. And now if I just go to his HockeyViz chart from Micah on HockeyViz.com. So if it's even a strike offense, you look at it, plus 0.32 expected goals for this season. There's a whole big red blob right in front of the net. So it continues to show that he's getting the high danger chances. He's been doing that every season that he has been in the league. I mean, if you just look, just 2021 is isolated 5V5 impact plus 12.7. expected goals for.

Last season, it was plus 14.5% right before he got hurt. And, you know, it's been this way for his entire career. He gets all of his chances right from the biggest high danger scoring areas on ice. And even his defensive effort this year was not bad. I know plus 1.1% expected goals against. It's not where you want to be. You always want to be in the negative.

It was actually better last season. But, you know, it's always going to be around close to break even because, you know, he gets the best competition night and night out. But again, everyone. Gensel had another great season. He should be staying here for hopefully the remainder of his career. I mean, you know, the talk that the Penguins should train him is just nothing short of bogus stuff. I really don't understand it.

You know, I saw people, you know, earlier in the Aussies to talk about trading him for Matthew Kachuk. You know, and I will admit, you know, when I first saw that, I was like, okay, you know, maybe makes a little bit of sense. Then I went to compare their underlying numbers, and it's like, yeah, I don't think so. It would have to be Kachuk plus to even think about trading Jane Gensel. You know, it's just, it's not something that the penguins are going to do, nor should they do. But, you know, now, speaking of someone that they could or should trade during the soft season, I'm going to have our season review of Brian Rust tomorrow for Wednesday's episodes.

So look for that there. Thank you all so much for listening to this episode of Lockdown Penguins podcast. I know the content is hard to come by right now. I'm going to start bringing on some more guests as the off season continues to roll on here. I have a couple of my sleeve that I'm not going to say anything about. but when I do get them book, you all will be the first to know, that's for sure. But thank you all so much for listening to this one, and let's do another one of these on Wednesday.