Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Let's not galaxy brain the McCann situation...

Episode Date: July 17, 2021

With the Expansion Draft just days away, we finally have a potential look at what the Penguins are planning to do protection-wise. Or do we? Hunter explains why it would be a full galaxy brain situation to leave McCann unprotected but not Tanev. Why is McCann way more valuable than Tanev? He also explains how it doesn't matter which third defenseman is protected since Seattle likely won't take one of them (unless it's somehow Cody Ceci). After that, Hunter goes into YOUR protected lists that you sent into the Locked On Penguins Twitter account. Which one does Hunter agree with the most? What is also his final prediction for the draft? All that, plus much more on this episode of Locked On Penguins.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Your Locked-on Penguins. Your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network. Your team every day. Hello, everyone. Welcome to this Friday evening episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast for July 16th. I am your host, Hunter Hodes. This episode is brought to by Spotify Green Room.

Next week will be the last week under the Spotify Green Room deal. I think until next season, I'm definitely going to be doing something. I actually try to do something I think on Monday, so hopefully in the evening, download that and join me that day to get in on the action. So finally have a lot to talk about for the Pittsburgh Penguins today as the expansion draft is getting ever so closer. The list will be due tomorrow,

and it will be released to the public on Sunday morning, I believe, at 10 a.m. Everyone will know each team their protected list. So a lot has been coming out today in regards to the penguins. Rob Rossi has had two reports today. The first one, I definitely think, made me more angry than the second one. But we're going to start with the first one because I understand a lot of people have been talking about it, and myself included.

So this was the potential protected list based on what Rob Rossi has heard. Again, good reporter has come on my show numerous times and has put out some really good info on the show. But this is what Rossi says for the forward. Sidney Crosby, Evgeny Malkin, Jake Gensel, Brian Russ, Kasperi Captain, Teddy Blugert, Brandon Tanev for the defense. Chris LaTang, Brian Dumlin, Mark Friedman, and the goalie, Casey to Smith. This was this morning.

I'm going to get to the updated version coming up soon. I'm just going to have my thoughts on this. Most of this list, if this one is more accurate than the second one, is pretty decent. But again, you are galaxy-braining this. if you're protecting Brandon Tanna over Jared McCann. And don't get me wrong, everyone.

I've said it on the podcast numerous times this week in case you have not heard me. These are my thoughts. Again, I love Tanev. You know, great long hair, physical has the intangibles that a lot of people love. But when you look at the two contracts and you just look at them as players overall,

Jared McCann is more valuable to this team than Brandon Tannad is. And I don't know how you could argue otherwise. It's just as simple as that. What you get in Jared McCann, a potential 20 goal score for $2.9 million is also really freaking good defensively versus Brandon Tanneth, who can give you some offense, is good defensively, especially on the penalty kill. But he's also signed for three to four more years at $3.5 million per. I mean, I think Jason of Penguins' Twitter, who I was DMing with this morning, he broke it down best, I thought, with a tweet threat. You know, he sounds like it's coming down to McCann v. TANF.

How you view that choice is a real litmus test. Do you value the physicality in the intangibles, or do you value scale and line-up versatility? And if you look at J. Fresh's stuff with Jared McCann, 81% with wins above replacement for McCann. Compared to TANF, 65% for even-strike offense. McCann is at 55%. 22 for TANV. Even-strength defense. And this is where TANF thrives.

McCann is higher than him at 92%. He also has a higher finishing rate ability, higher primary assist per 60 minutes, higher goals per 60 minutes. You know, maybe TANF draws a little bit more penalties, but, you know, with the big things here with wins above replacement

and better defense lead, even strength, and finish is better and as a better playmaker, it's just, it's not even close to me, in my opinion. So, again, you are galaxy braining it if you are protecting TANF over McAnne.

I had some weirdo in the, my mentions on the Locked on Penguins' Twitter account, when I talked about Galaxy brand, and someone asked me like, well, did the course he tell you that, it's like, okay, Mr. Mark Madden-Berner account, which I know he is, and I hope he listens to this podcast

because I'm just going to go out of my way and call you a flat-out moron right now. No, of course, he did not tell me that, even though it's a very good tool to help me analyze the two players. I can just watch the two play, even without looking at the underlying numbers, and I can see who is more value. to this team, and I hope you all can too.

It's just, again, you know, it would be really foolish to protect Brandon Tannam. And, I mean, everyone, Seattle is not going to take TANF. They're just not. I would literally eat a hat if they actually went out and took TANF over so many other options like Jason Zooker, Jeff Carter, it sounds like could be exposed. Zach Gasson-Reece, who is a better defensive player than Brandon Tanef. They very well could lose him in the expansion draft. I would take him 100 times out of 100.

compared to Brandon Tanniv. And, you know, Rossi also offered this up right afterwards before I get to the next stuff. Let me just find this tweet real quick. He did say, my sense from talking to sources, is the Cracken likely would not select the following Penguins if unprotected. For the forwards, it would be Zooker and Carter, Defense, Matheson, Petters, and Cici, goalie, jari. He also said that Hextall remains opposed to enticing the Cracken to take a player by trading an asset. I was listening to the 31 Thoughts podcast from Elliot Freepin and Jeff Merrick,

and apparently the cost to get Seattle to not take a player on your team is a first and a third round pick. So, yeah, good luck with that. Any GM that's like making a trade with Seattle to not take a player, good luck with that. Because it sounds like right now you'd have to give up two prime picks to do that. I can't really see many GMs doing that, but you really never know. in this league. And then Rossi did put out another tweet tonight. This was an updated potential protection list after talking to more sources on Friday.

Most of the list is the same. Crosby Malkin, Gensel Rust, Blugher with Caputin, but subbing out Brandon Tanev for Jeff Carter. And then for the goalie, Casey DeSmith, and then for the defense, Latang, Dumlin, and Cody Cici. People are going to think that it's weird that they are protecting Cody Cici, but Taylor Haas of D.K. Pittsburgh Sports wrote a great article talking about when Vegas did their expansion draft,

she says nearly a third of all of the Vegas's selections were pending UFAs. Why do you ask? Well, because they were thinking of trading them at the deadline so that they can just, you know, get assets back because they thought they were going to be bad. I can see Seattle doing that, especially with Cody Cici. I think Hechstall is going to try to sign him to an extension before he goes to open market. I don't think he's going to be successful in that. I've touched on that a lot in the last few weeks,

but it makes sense to protect him, you know, and not one of Marcus Pedersen or Mike Matheson because, well, you know, they're probably going to look to trade them during the offseason. And then, you know, for Mark Friedman, I mean, you're just protecting him, I think, for shits and giggles at that point. I mean, that's just my opinion, at least. But for the goalie, dismiss, again,

I touched on this earlier on my Twitter as well, everyone. This should show you what their plans are or part of what their plans are for the off season. Protecting Casey DeSmith, who has been a career backup, his entire NHL career over your starting goaltender and Tristan Jari, who was not good in the playoffs last year, that should tell you all you need to know about what they want to do with their goaltending situation

going into this season. They will 100% be going after someone in free agency or via a trade. But, you know, the biggest one, obviously, that has changed is Jeff Carter. so they want to protect all four centers. I understand that in a way because of Gennie Malkin is maybe not going to be available for the start of the season. There's really not been a lot of clarity on that situation. Ever since he had that surgery, they said he would be out for most of the training camp. They didn't really give a definitive timeline as to when he's going to be back.

But it sounds like that he may miss a little bit of the season that has not officially been confirmed yet. I'm so sorry for just stumbling. over my words there. And then Rob offered up this tweet. He did say, the penguins are doing very well to keep things quiet. I don't have a great feel for how many sources really know what Ron Hextall is thinking.

I'm expecting most do not, but I'm just passing along what intel that sounds familiar as a service to readers, and I want to be transparent. So, there's the big kicker right there. Hextel has done a really good job since taking over of not letting a lot of things leak to

the media and basically, and around the NHL. He usually is very reserved. He keeps to himself. I touched on this when he got hired. He is the anti-Gin Rutherford in basically every single way. You're not going to get a lot out of him. So we will see. I don't think he's stupid enough to leave Jared McCann unprotected. I'm going to touch more on that in the next segment. But again, everyone, it is blasphemy that they would actually consider leaving him unprotected. It would literally be the equivalent. I'm just, you know what, I'm going to say that. I'm going to say what I'm going to say into the next segment as a nice little tease.

It just reminds me something of what a team did in the last expansion draft for Vegas, and now they're still paying the price for that. So look for that coming up right after this commercial break. All right, welcome back to this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes, follow the show's Twitter at L0 underscore Penguins. So, again, you know, this leaving McCann unprotected, it would almost be the equivalent of what the Florida Panthers did with protecting Alex

freaking Petrovich who's not even in the NHL anymore over Jonathan Marcheseau and Riley Smith because if I recall correctly both of those players are still in Vegas and they're also playing really freaking good hockey they're still good top six winger that very well could happen with McCann and it's exactly why they cannot afford to lose him and also why Why would you not protect him because he can slide over in play center? I think, you know, if you want to protect the big four, obviously, you want to protect Kisperi Captain, that's fine.

You want to protect Jeff Carter? Okay, I'll listen. But, you know, if you're not going to protect Teddy Bluger over Jared McCann, that's a mistake. I mean, McCann is the better player. I think he's better at center than Blugher is, and Blugher's also 27. He's older than McCann is, and McCann is the better player in both zones. and you're going to protect him over McCann and Jeff Carter, who Seattle is probably not going to take anyway.

I think Rob also reported earlier today that it sounds like they may have a little bit of a hands-off deal, like a handshake agreement that you won't touch Jeff Carter. I don't know if that has to deal with Carter potentially thinking he would retire if Seattle would take him, but it sounds like they would not take him from what I read. but just going more off of McCann, again, you know, it's just, it's a lot harder to replace a 25-year-old middle-six player who can score a 20-plus goal pace for 3 million than a fourth liner for $2.5 million. It's just like I don't understand the logic. And I'm looking at some of the more of the underlying numbers. I'm trying to find this tweet here that I had from this morning. I think King Close. He either deemned it to me or he put it on his Twitter. So just give me a sec on this real quick. So, yeah, there's literally a similarity.

If you go to HockeyViz and look at Micah Blake stuff, if you look at isolated impact for Jared McCann, plus 3% in the expected goals for per 60, a lot of red in the prime scoring areas defensively, all blue in front of the net, which is what you want. And then you compare it to Elias Peterson, who is arguably the best player on the Vancouver Canucks, their charts are basically identical.

Minus 20, expected goals against per 60, a whole blob of blue right in the middle. Then when you go to his expected goals for a 60, plus 4% plus 0.9, I expected goals for per 60, a whole blob of red, which is what you want, right in the middle,

just as it is for Jared McCann. And it's like, he's almost, and he's a mini version of Elias Peterson, except he doesn't put up as much per person. production as him, but you never know. Heck, that could come this year if they decide to keep him. So it would just be a monumental mistake for Pittsburgh to leave McCann exposed. It just, it doesn't make any sense to me. And I really hope that they would come to their senses,

again, everyone. I have to stress this as well, as Rob said. No one has really had a good feel as to what Ron Hextall is going to do. The list come out Sunday morning, 10 a.m. Eastern time. That is the big thing. We will see who the penguins protect right in the mid-morning on Sunday and hopefully it includes McCann because if it is not, Seattle literally has a layup for them right there. I mean, if McCann is available and they don't select him and they say they select them like Zoker or Aston Reese, I would be pretty son because that would be, I think, the steal of the expansion draft. There is no need to Galaxy brain this. I don't think Seattle would take harder. I understand protecting it.

but I really don't think if you're you can't protect all four centers and leave mechanics post it's just I really don't understand the logic behind it I did ask some of you to send me your protection list I'm going to get to those right now actually before we do get to the commercial break let's see who I'm going to start with here we're going to start with Alan T. Yoder for the forwards the big four crosbie Malkin russgenzgenzgenzsche I would protect capinen blueger mccann slash handov I'm going back and forth between them. I can see both sides of this discussion. I'm going to end that discussion for you there. It's Jared McCann and basically not close. But no, again, I understand protecting Tanneth. Heck, if you wanted to protect Tenef over Bluger

and then McCann over Carter, heck, I would get that as well. I think Josh Yowie had a really good list today. If I can go find that tweet that he had his protected list was probably the best one that had Brandon Teneff on it to begin with. It would be Crosby Malkin, Gens.

Russell, Rust, McCann, Capon, and Tenev. Again, that's totally fine. Sure, you leave Bluger and Carter exposed, but I don't think Seattle was going to take either of them. I think the pick there is Austin Race, and you're still protecting Tanna, which a lot of people want. You're protecting the biggest five-fours that you need to. Kaepernan, who was really good in the playoffs, and then that last spot, it's really open for a debate. Do you want to protect another center, even though Gino could be hurt, or do you want to protect Brandon Tannib, who's a little bit of a glue guy, excuse me,

but is still a wrecking ball as well. Alan also says for the defense, Latang, Dumlin, C.C. Matheson, leading towards Cici, goalie. Jari, I am high on him until he proves otherwise. I get it. You know, the goalie, Alan, I don't really care who they protect either way. Seattle is not going to take them, according to Elliot Freeman on the 31 Thoughts podcast.

It sounds like they're leading towards Chris Dreger. So the Penguins really have nothing to worry about there. You know, whichever goalie they protect, Seattle is not going to go for the other one. Bella says, I would go Krazy, Malkin, Ross Gensel, Captainin, McCann, and Blugher, Latang, Dumlin, and Pedersen for the defense. Jari, for the goalie, I'm convinced that anyone who protects Carter or Tenev instead of McCann and Bluger are on drugs. Okay, so, I mean, that definitely made me laugh a little bit, but yes, I mean,

I think if you're protecting both Carter and Tanev and you're not protecting over McCann and Blugher, yeah, you're definitely drinking a lot of Red Bulls, smoking a lot of pot. That does not make any sense to me She also says I could see Matheson over Pedersen but on those super off that Pio Joseph, Marino doesn't work out. Pedersen Marino makes a better pairing than Matheson Marino. I mean, yeah, the Matheson Marino pairing

was just such a disaster last season and their underlying numbers were so freaking bad. It also does not matter whichever third defensemen they protect. I think CC could be the right call because as Taylor Haas says, a lot of what Vegas did in the last expansion draft, they took a lot of UFAs,

because they figured they could just sign them and then dump them at the deadline because they thought they were going to be bad. Obviously, that didn't work out. But still, you know, that was their logic going into it. I could see Ron Francis having that same train of thought as George McPhee did. I'm looking at us to see what other ones people have. Gilbert says, you know, the big four, cappinen with McCann and Blugard, Latang, Dumlin, Matheson, because they won't take his contract.

Yeah, I mean, again, you know, the third defenseman who really gives a shit. and then he has Casey to Smith as his goy that they should protect. So a lot of pretty good ones. I think the one that I lean most towards is probably closer to Bella's. I think the forwards, absolutely. I think I would protect all those forwards, in my opinion. I would have Booger and McCann over Carter and Tanna, Peterson on the defense.

I think I'm starting to lean towards protecting Cici over him just because Seattle can take Cici in expansion, if they leave him unprotected. But again, I don't think Pittsburgh is going to be able to resign CC, even if he wasn't protected. And then Jari, you know, I'm leaning towards protecting to Smith. I don't really care either way. But that's just my opinion on that.

Thank you all so much for sending those in. Again, my final protecting list, excuse me, and my predictions for Sunday, Cindy Crosby, and Gennie Malkin, Brian Rust, Jake Gensel, Casperi Kappan, Jared McCann, and Teddy Bluger. Those are my seven forwards that I think they'll protect on defense. Crystal Tang, Brian Dumlin, Cody Cici. I have landed on that.

And then for goalie, I have them protecting Casey DeSmith over Kristen Jara. So those are my thoughts on that. Let me know what you all think on the Lockdown Penguins Twitter or on my Twitter at Hunter Hodes follow both of those accounts to stay up to date on the latest Penguins news. We still have a little more to get to in the last segment going around the league a little bit. But before we do that, it's time to talk about Bill Burrower. They have many delicious flavors. There is something for everyone.

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All right, welcome back to this episode of the Lockedown Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. Remember to follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow this show's Twitter at L.O. underscore Penguins. There really was not much movement around the league today, except Steve Iserman, helping Lou Lamarillo out. for whatever reason. So the Islanders traded Nick Letty

who had been there. How long has he been there? I think it was what, five, six years at least for a second round pick and Richard Pontick, who of course on the Red Wings got in the Jacob Vrana trade when they sent Anthony Mantha to Washington. I did not expect this day

to see Steve Iserman of all GMs getting ripped off by Lou Lamarillo. I really don't get that trade for the Red Wings, excuse me. I guess they could maybe flip him at the deadline, but I mean, you're just helping Lou Lamarillo out for getting in the salary cap hell for the sake of helping him out. I mean, it's the old boys club again. Really don't understand it.

I think that was it for the main movement around the league today. I will say this. I know there's been a lot of reports that the Penguins have been linked to Zach Hyman. I'm going to touch on that a little bit here before I in this episode. I think Zach Hyman's a really good player. I think he would be a great fit on the Penguins, but I was listening to Elliot Freibans, 31 Thoughts podcast this morning. And he said, in case you all did not hear it, this contract will probably spook all of you away.

He thinks the contract will be seven times six. So in other words, seven years, six million per, or in another term, seven years, $42 million. The Penguins cannot do that. They don't have the space to do it, nor should they create the space to do that. Again, I love Hyman. I think he's a good player, but you cannot sign him to a seven. to eight-year term, especially when that's going to take him well into his 30s, and that kind of player drops off really quickly.

Anyone who was going to be signing him to that kind of contract is making a gigantic mistake. If they were a lot cheaper and they say they could do maybe a little bit of a longer term with a less AAV, maybe I'd be open to order. Honestly, a little bit of a lower term, but higher AAV, I think I'd be down with that as well, but with a lot of term and a lot of an AAV, Pittsburgh just can't do that, nor should they do that. That's just, they're not going to be able to outbid teams like Edmonton,

who it sounds like is a clear frontrunner for him. Ken Holland will always want to overpay a player like that. Vancouver, it sounds like, is interested. I'm sure Calgary's in there too. They want to shake up their roster a little bit as well. So it's just Pittsburgh cannot and should not do that. Again, there really wasn't a lot of big rumors swirling today, but I'm sure these next couple days are going to be pretty hectic.

Again, everyone, thank you all so much for listening to this episode of the Locktime Penguins podcast. I really appreciate it. And we'll do another one of these on Monday. I will tweet out my thoughts on Sunday when I see the protective lists, and hopefully Ron Hextall comes to his senses and protects Jared McCann. I don't think he's that stupid to leave McCann unprotected. And again, everyone, this situation is so full. fluid and Hextel has not let anything leak. So who knows what he's actually planning going into

this weekend. I'm not going to panic just yet. I'm a little bit worried right now, but not as worried as I'll be if I see that McCann is left unprotected for the expansion drop. But again, thank you all so much for listening to this episode and continuing to support the podcast. I know the content has been a little bit dry just because, you know, the penguin season has been over for six weeks, but with silly season really ramping up, keep it right here. on Locked on Penguins. I have a couple big things I think coming in the store. I think I'm going to put something on a YouTube channel tomorrow with my buddy for about 15 to 20 minutes going over a full preview of the expansion draft and what could happen with the Penguins. So look

for that there on my YouTube channel. I'm going to tweet that out on both the Locked on Penguin's Twitter account and on my Twitter account at Hunter Hoodies. Again, thank you all so much for listening and I hope you all have a wonderful weekend.