Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Making sense of Ville Koivunen's EIGHT YEAR contract with the Penguins

Starting point is 00:00:00 Do you have just two NHL career goals in less than 50 games played, then you might just have an eight-year contract waiting for you. Hunter and I break down the baffling contract the Penguins signed Velae Coivin into on the Thursday edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. You're Locked-on Penguins, your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I am one of your hosts, Patrick Damp.

Starting point is 00:00:42 You can find me on most social media platforms at Synonym 4Wet. Joined as always by the one and only Hunter Hodes. You can find Hunter on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. You can make sure you're following our show on Twitter at L-O- underscore Penguins and on TikTok at Locked-on Penguins. Today we're going to talk about what the 2026 27 penguins need to do to recreate the magic of last season. The Wheeling Nailers officially have an affiliation agreement in place,

Starting point is 00:01:15 but we must start with the big news of the day. Late this morning, early afternoon, the penguins announced they had signed forward Velae-Koevenin to an eight-year, $32 million contract worth $4 million per season. and well, it's confusing to say the very least. And Hunter, you and I have been texting back and forth since this news dropped. I know you have a lot of thoughts. I'm going to let you get those out. And then I will share mine.

Starting point is 00:01:50 Yeah. So this was the type of tweet that I saw. I saw the bottom that said eight years. I'm like, is this Pergwins? Are we being like pranked here? I click the link. I see it there. I exit out.

Starting point is 00:02:03 I click the link again. It still says it. And then I have to click it a third time. I triple check that that was a real tweet because I didn't see it coming. I don't think anyone in the fan base saw this coming. You and I figured, uh, you get a one to two year prove it contract, not too much money. Kyle Dubas said, the hell with that, we're going to give him max term in a $4 million cap.

Starting point is 00:02:26 And before I go any further, four million in today's NHL is not what it looked like. Like, just a few years ago, Pat, when the salary cap was not even $90 million. So the cap hit, it is far down the list of issues I have with this contract. I really don't even think it's that big of an issue, considering that the cap is only going to go up. My biggest things, or head scratchers, I should say, are the term and the gamble for this, because this is the biggest bet of all bets, sources are saying, because they think and Kyle Dubas talked about this via email today, they see the potential in Billy Coivant

Starting point is 00:03:07 and they think he is going to reach it during this deal. Now, is he 100% going to do that? To quote Stee Griffin, gee, I don't know, not psychic man. But I would personally not have made that bet. I think it's too big. He has not shown enough at the NHL level to warrant that type of contract. But the Penguins Foreign Office believe that he is going to turn

Starting point is 00:03:31 into a solid middle six to top nine player who can probably score 15-ish goals per season. And hey, if he does turn into that type of player, this is a good contract. However, I am still concerned about his trajectory because while he has played well in the HL, he has not been able to adjust to the NHL. His underlying numbers are really good, but I test-wise, he gets lost too often on the ice. His board play is not very good. He's always a step behind. He's too passive. I could keep going, really. There's just been too many issues so far at the NHL level outside of that nice eight game sample that he had at the end of the 24, 25 season. So that's kind of where I am. I know my thoughts are very jumbled on this, but if he becomes

Starting point is 00:04:22 an NHL regular and is a middle six to top nine forward, I think the term and all the concerns will become mute. He just needs to actually do it because it's gotten to the point where it's put up or shut up time. And they obviously believe in him. They think his production is finally going to come because it has not so far. And if it does, we're all going to look like idiots about the situation. So it is a really big bet. I just simply have to see it. Again, I would not have signed him to this contract, but the front office clearly believes in him. They believe in the talent. They believe that he is going to get the production. And that's that at the end of the day.

Starting point is 00:05:03 So those are my main thoughts. I know Pat, jumbled mess here, but that's kind of what I have to say. Definitely a bit of a head scratcher, but from the Penguins perspective, they think that he is going to turn into an NH regular. I just haven't seen it yet. Neither have I.

Starting point is 00:05:21 He's consistently a step behind at the N.A. Or not even say a step behind. That's too harsh. Half step behind. at the NHL level. You see a lot of blocked shots, a lot of deflected shots. He's a half step behind on playmaking decisions and where to be. He has really good underlying numbers.

Starting point is 00:05:40 There's no denying that. His analytics are very good. He does drive offense. It just doesn't lead to actual production. There's something to be said for that, that there is value in having that on your roster. There is value in being that kind of player. but eventually it has to turn into actual production.

Starting point is 00:06:02 And to this point, it really hasn't yet. There's another aspect of this that worries me more than anything. And it has really nothing to do with Velae Coivanin himself. It has more to do with the organization as a whole. And I know that the penguins still don't have that big blue chip superstar prospect. yet. That is still on the to-do list for the franchise. What worries me about this is if you're, say, Igor Chinikov in a couple years, if you're Rutger Magrorty in a year or two, if you're Ben Kindle in two to three years, if you're Bill Zonan, if you're a couple of the other guys who

Starting point is 00:06:47 seem to have a higher ceiling potentially than someone like Vela Kovinen, you just lost as an organization a lot of leverage over these guys. Because a player who has played under 50 games has scored two career goals just gets an eight year deal. Now, obviously in the next few off seasons, that changes to seven. I'm not going to be able to offer eight year deals. But if you're the Penguins and Coyvenin has another up and down season next year or the year after Ben Kindle comes up, Rutger McGrady comes up, you get to a point where someone like

Starting point is 00:07:32 Chinikov comes up, it's going to be a lot harder negotiation than it needs to be. Now, if Coivinen has the summer of his life and comes in and has a big year, that all goes away. And there is the potential for that. He has been really damn good at the AHL level, but it has yet to translate. So this all could be moot when we go into next summer and we're talking about how in the first year of this new contract, Covenin had a big year, carved a rollout for himself. But there are just so many question marks surrounding his game right now that I and you in a lot of the fan base have been a huge fan of just about everything Kyle Dubus has done since the Jake Gensel trade, which kind of takes this thing full circle, the fact that he was kind of the key piece coming

Starting point is 00:08:29 out of that deal, that this is the first time in a while. I've looked at a Kyle Dubus move and gone, I don't know if I like this. Yeah, I'm with you on that. I squinted when I saw it in it. and that it was fully real. They clearly see something in this player that you and I, and I've seen a whole bunch of other fans and MIDI members out there, don't see.

Starting point is 00:08:57 And you know what? That's fine. And if you're right about it, okay. You can laugh on everyone. You can dunk on everyone. But it is a really big bet because honestly, Pat, I'm not sure he's ever going to be a consistent middle six to top nine player. they may think he is going to be, but I'm not sure he's going to be.

Starting point is 00:09:17 He hasn't shown that ability yet outside of an eight-game sample at the end of the 24-25 season. Now, they're running the team. You and I are just screaming into our microphones on a podcast here about the Penguins. But I am fascinated to see how this plays out. Nothing is going to be given to him. He is going to have to earn it. That is something that Kyle Dubas said via email today to meeting members where he's going to have to go out there.

Starting point is 00:09:41 He's going to have to earn a spot. and he's going to have to keep that spot because other players are going to be coming for his job, whether it's younger players or whether it is veteran players. Something else to note as well. I'm glad that Jay Fresh put this out on Twitter. If the Penguins say this doesn't work out over the next couple of seasons, Pat, if they buy him out in the summer of 2028, they will be on the hook for 12 seasons, but the cap hit will never exceed 750K.

Starting point is 00:10:08 It kind of feels like a little New York Mets situation right there. Does it not? It does feel like a Bobby Bonia situation where if this doesn't work out, they can just shake his hand, buy him out and cut him $170,000 check once a year when this contract comes up. Speaking of that, though, this is the other side of it that I do want to get into real quick before we move on on the show is you kind of hinted at it that a $4 million cap hit in this environment is not what it used to be. This contract as it continues, should covenin continue to be a penguin, gets cheaper and cheaper and cheaper as each year progresses. And the other side of that is that if he becomes, at best, a middle six forward,

Starting point is 00:10:59 he's beyond affordable. So it's to the point where you have yourself a solid contract. If he turns out to be a reliable, consistent third liner, for example, yeah, it's a lot of turn, but the cap hit is $4 million. He scores 15-ish goals per season. Again, if he does that, the contract turns out to be pretty solid. Anything more than Matt Pat, say he's a consistent top six winner, just throwing that out there. Looks even better, obviously. But if he's a consistent top-nine player, eyeing the Penguins and the entire fan base would gladly take that.

Starting point is 00:11:36 100%. And I think to put a fine point on this, on this segment, it's just the term that is baffling. I don't quite understand why an unproven 23-year-old forward gets an eight-year deal that walks him to age 31. But at the end of the day, there's one last point I want to make. This kind of tells you the direction that the franchise is headed. Because, there's only so many more years of Sidney Crosby. There's only so many more years of Chris LaTang. There's maybe only one more year of Eric Carlson and of Gennie Malkin. You are eventually going to need warm bodies on your NHL roster to play. And Coyvenin, at the very least, as we get into those deep waters of years 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8, he might not be a top line player, he might not be a top talent, but at the very least, he'll be a serviceable player that if you have to move,

Starting point is 00:12:44 likely will not be difficult to move. But that is going to do it for this opening segment. When we come back, we all know how magical last season was, but can the penguins replicate it this upcoming season? We will get into that when we come back right after this. But we've got to tell you about today's sponsor, and that is Odu. Running a business shouldn't feel like you're trying to connect a bunch of systems that were never designed to work together. One app for accounting, another for inventory, another for sales, and somehow none of them talk to one another.

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Starting point is 00:14:07 Great organizations win because operations matter, and that is why you should be using Odu. Try for free today at Odu.com slash locked on. That's OD-O-O dot com slash locked on. We are back on the Thursday edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast, Patrick Damp and Hunter Hode is here with you. And as we all know, last season, season was a magical ride back to the Stanley Cup playoffs. However, the question now is,

Starting point is 00:14:41 is that sustainable or was it just a blip on the rebuilding radar? Here's where I want to start with this, Hunter. The thing that gives me pause when it comes to the penguins remaining in the playoff picture is this. Every little thing last year went right. Anthony Mantha, career highs. And Kindle immediately NHL ready. Parker Watherspoon was a top pairing defenseman right out of the gate. The team, for the most part, remained mostly healthy. And then players like Chinikov, Soderblom, even Stuart Skinner, at the very least, to use a baseball metaphor, those swings were doubles, if not straight up home runs.

Starting point is 00:15:32 I think it would be really difficult to replicate that two straight years. Now, not to say that it couldn't happen. Maybe Murashov shows up and he's immediately the starting goaltender. He's a goaltender one and he has a huge year. Maybe Kuzmenko pots 25 to 30 goals. Nick Robertson arrives as a really productive middle six, even top six forward. but all that said, Gino's another year older,

Starting point is 00:16:05 Cid's another year older, Latang as well as pretty much all of the defense outside of Eric Carlson, is a massive question mark. So going into this season, I look at it as we're a lot closer to where we were talking about this team last summer than what ended up happening. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:16:29 So I think, the way they can repeat last year's success. Obviously, number one, at least one of your special teams units needs to be above average. If you can get both, that would be huge because the Penguins did have one of the best power plays and one of the best penalty kills in the league last year. They're going to need at least right around average goaltending. Time will tell if they can get that from this new tandem of Artie She Loves. And we assume Sergei Marasov, who he's played a few NHL games and has looked at least competent, especially in one of his starts. But Now more teams are going to get actual film on him.

Starting point is 00:17:02 They're going to try to expose his weaknesses. How does he do in what will probably be his first full season? That is going to be a huge key to repeat. The success is that goalie tandem. Forward-wise, the depth is going to have to continue to step up. All the signings are going to have to really hit. You mentioned Guzmanco, if he can pot 20 to 25, that would be huge. If Nick Robertson, for example, pots around 20 goals, that would go a long way.

Starting point is 00:17:27 Obviously, the big guns, they still got to be the big guns. Sid's got to keep doing his thing. I'd like to see Gino at a point per game. Maybe Igor Chinov has his first 30-gole season in the NHL. Rustin Rakel, we'll have to see how they do. I assume they're going to score between 20 and 30 this season because that's what they've been at the last few seasons. So you have those, but defensively, can Declan Carlisle take a big step after a solid half of a season with Tampa Bay? Can Trevor Van Reevesdyke play better in a more elevated role?

Starting point is 00:18:01 Because right now that's what's looking like. He's probably going to get the top pair of minutes as it stands with Eric Carlson. Can Chris LaTang find the Fountain of Youth a little bit, even though his career is trending downward right now? How does Caden Corsack play coming over from Vegas where his underlines were really strong this past season? A lot of questions. You may not hit on all of them, but if you can hit on most of them, you'll have a chance to at least repeat last season's success.

Starting point is 00:18:31 I think they're going to be in the race for most of, if not the entire season. Whether they make the playoffs, though, that's an entirely different story. That's kind of, I know that we still got about a month or so until we do our bold predictions for the upcoming season, but I will reference one that I had last year that I am probably going to apply to this year as well. I looked at last year's roster and thought they're not going to be outright bad. I know that all of the pre, and obviously we know how the season went, they make the playoffs and they're better than literally anybody expected.

Starting point is 00:19:08 But what I said going into the season was this team isn't going to stink. They're not going to be awful. They're not going to be unwatchable. I said they were going to remain in the playoff race in the picture until the final few weeks of the season. barring major injuries or crazy regression from a few players, that kind of feels like the bar again for this team. It feels like you look at this roster and it's not great, but it's not horrible. It's a team that is going to compete. It's a team that we're going to watch meaningful hockey for most of the year.

Starting point is 00:19:45 There's a chance that maybe we end up in the same spot as last year, where they find themselves right in the mix. They end up squeaking in or getting themselves in with a week or two to go. But I don't want this segment to come off as dooming. I'm not sitting here and going, ah, last year, that was a fluke. Don't get your hopes up. Everybody calm down. It's not happening again because the same elements are at play going into this season that were there last year. You said it. Can the big guns be the big guns? again and fight off father time for another year. Will some of these younger players like Chinikov, like Kindle, like Villay Khoevenin,

Starting point is 00:20:30 who we just talked about, Rutger Magrorty, et cetera, et cetera, can these guys take the next step? Can they become maybe not every single night NHL players, but guys who when they are in the lineup make a difference, look like they're on the path to becoming full-time NHLers? all of those elements were in place last year. And then the biggest X factor to me is Sergey Murchoff. I want to see can this trend of him being really good everywhere he goes continue into next year because I think we're both in agreement that it is not a starter and backup with

Starting point is 00:21:15 Shilov's going into the year. This is going to be a split tandem again. but if Murshov shows up and he is just stonewall in teams for the first month, if you're the organization, you say, you know what, he's young, he's our guy, let's give him some room to run. And if that ends up being the case, I like their chances a lot better than I would have last year. Yeah, it's a possibility. We just have to see how he adjusts to the NHL on a full-time basis.

Starting point is 00:21:46 So we've seen a few games. This is your biggest test yet. though, going from the A to the big show where you're facing really good and the best of the best players. Because, yeah, you've dominated everywhere you've been. That's all fine and dandy. Now you're going to face your biggest test yet. And if he goes out there, he's Stonewalls teams. He shows that he's the future.

Starting point is 00:22:09 I can easily see D.C.D.M. Excuse me being like, yeah, I'm going to give you the net for a few games here. And we're going to roll with you. And if you look like you're a little bit gas, we're going to give our. already a few more starts, but it's definitely a possibility. We'll just have to see how it all shakes out when the season starts. Maybe the opposite also happens where Arty can use that playoff momentum to go into the regular season and potentially play at that level.

Starting point is 00:22:36 Now, I have to see it because his regular season was very up and down before he went off in the playoffs, but maybe he does use that momentum and he plays at that level, at least to start the regular season, and maybe he's going on a little bit of a run. while Marashav is kind of like that 1B slash backup. A lot of possibilities. I'm just excited to see how it plays out. And hey, Campbell, we be here before we know it. It really will.

Starting point is 00:22:59 And the last thing I want to hit before we finish up this segment is on the other end of it, where I'm saying that Murashov's the big X factor. If he steps up and becomes the starter that we all expect him to be would be a positive. On the other end of it, the biggest question mark to me, And this is not going to be any big revelation because I think everybody knows this. The defense is just the biggest Microsoft word early 2000s question mark you have ever seen. Because Eric Carlson had a renaissance last year. I have no doubt he is going to be on a similar, maybe not the same level as last year,

Starting point is 00:23:44 just because we'll never know until years down the road if either one of them speak out about it. But it just felt like the Mike Sullivan, Eric Carlson relationship didn't work. Dan Muse gets here and suddenly Eric Carlson looks like Eric Carlson. But then outside of that, TVR, what's he going to do? Do Corsack and Carlisle actually become something? Or is that Vegas-style luck-it-es? at the blackjack table going to run out on these projects. Do these guys not improve like some of the reclamation projects Penguins have had?

Starting point is 00:24:23 Samuel Gerard, is he healthy? Can he make a step? What happens with Chris LaTang? And if your defense is shallow, that is going to be a massive, massive challenge. I'm with you. I mean, outside of the goalie tandem, I would say it's the biggest question going into the season,

Starting point is 00:24:43 just because well because they also have a million forwards so there's always going to be options yeah i mean they're so deep in forward they don't even know what to do with some of these players but yeah the goalies very young tammond defensively left side i think is weaker right now than where it was at the end of this past season how do some of these other players adjust can know when pickering potentially make the team he's going to have to have one hell of the camp and one hell of a preseason to do it but they said they wanted to improve the defense, especially the left side. Don't know if they've done that fully, the saucies.

Starting point is 00:25:18 I think the right side is better because they have Cating Corsack now. But left side, still quite a few question marks there. But yeah, those are my main thoughts. Yeah, we are, like you said, just a few weeks away from training camp in the start of the new season. So we will see, but a lot of question marks going into this year's team. we will see how it all shakes out. But that is going to do it for this middle segment. When we come back, Wheeling Nailers will have an affiliate next season.

Starting point is 00:25:52 We will talk about that really quickly to end the show right after this. We're closing out the Thursday edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast, Patrick Damp, Hunter Hodes, riding side-by-side as we always do. And as expected, the Wheeling Nailers will not begin the 20. 26, 27 season as an independent ECHL club announced this morning, not long after the Penguins Veele-Coyvenin contract announcement, the Wheeling Nailers announced that they have officially entered into an agreement with the Columbus Blue Jackets in the NHL and the Cleveland Monsters in the AHL. I will say this. When the agreement with the Penguins was severed, this was my prediction because it makes a lot of sense.

Starting point is 00:26:48 Wheeling and Columbus, they are only about two hours apart. Cleveland, same deal, give or take about a half an hour. So overall, for the blue jackets, for the nailers, this just feels like a natural fit. Yeah, it is two hours exactly. All it is, Pat, is a straight shot down I-70 right there, right to Columbus. So it just makes the most sense when you factor in the distance. and I mean, that really is it at the end of the day. Two-hour drive to Columbus.

Starting point is 00:27:22 Cleveland, I agree, Pat, right up there as well. No other team really made much sense, just because Columbus is in the general vicinity. Hell, it's only about a three-hour drive from Pittsburgh to Columbus. It's no wonder why you see so many Penguins fans inside Nationwide Arena every season because it's literally a straight shot to Columbus. It's only three hours from here. So I'm happy for the fine folks of Wheeling.

Starting point is 00:27:49 I'm happy for the nailers, of course. It may be a Penguins rival, and I know a lot of those nailers fans are Penguins fans, but I guess you'll have to maybe change a little bit. I don't want all you people to be Columbus Blue Jackets fans because they are a rival of the Penguins. But it's at least good for the organization, for the people of Wheeling, that they're getting a team that's also in the direct vicinity. So really nice job. No surprise at all.

Starting point is 00:28:20 Yeah. And even though it is a Pittsburgh, Columbus, Penguins Blue Jackets rivalry, this is nice for the Blue Jackets, because in the history of the ECHL, the Nailers are one of the premier teams to graduate players all the way up to the NHL. So for a franchise like Columbus, who will have to depend upon player development,

Starting point is 00:28:44 depend upon getting some of these lesser known, lesser seen prospects. This will work out really well for them. And the same goes for the Cleveland Monsters. They have been a really good AHL team since they came into existence. So this is a really nice agreement for all parties involved. But I just wanted to hit that real quick to end the show. So that will do it for the Thursday edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. and you, dear listener, are going to get two days of episodes because we will be back tomorrow.

Starting point is 00:29:23 And if you're looking at your calendar, you're looking at your watch, you're looking at the timepiece wherever you have it in your house, we think you might know what the date is tomorrow, August 7th. So as we did last week for Evgeny Malkin's 40th birthday, we are going to have a Sydney Crosby episode on 8-7 for his 39th birthday. So make sure you're subscribed. Make sure you're following us and tuned in for that. And we will talk to you then.

Starting point is 00:29:55 But for now, for Hunter Hodes, I am Patrick Damp. Thank you as always for tuning in. We will be back on Friday.

Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Making sense of Ville Koivunen's EIGHT YEAR contract with the Penguins

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