Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - No reason for deep concern...yet

Episode Date: April 7, 2021

The Pittsburgh Penguins may have just suffered one of their worst losses of the season but the sky isn't falling. Hunter explains why a lot of the loss tonight is mainly on some bad luck and how the goaltending wasn't bailing them out for just the second game in the last month to month and a half. He gets into the underlying numbers and how one-sided the game was, despite the score and also focuses on some positives, which included the great play of Jared McCann and Jake Guentzel. After that, Hunter destroys the Penguins penalty-killing unit and how bad it's been before getting to a couple listener takeaways to end the show!Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!BetOnline AGThere is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus.Built BarBuilt Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you’ll get 15% off your next order.Rock AutoAmazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

You're Locked-on Penguins, your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hey, everyone, welcome to this Tuesday evening episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm your host, Hunter Hodes. Follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. Follow the shows Twitter at L.O. underscore Penguins. I'm actually recording this during the third period. There is about seven minutes left in the game.

At least there's a two-on-one right here, and of course, they screwed it up. But anyways, this was a shellacling against the Penguins 8 to 3. That's probably going to be the final score. No idea why Zach Ashton Reese is trying to fight Jacob Truba right now. But I guess that is what's happening in this game. But just a really poor performance. Well, well, let's just back up a second. Poor performance in terms of the defensive zone and the goal tending.

But if you look at the underlying numbers, it paints a completely different story. If you look at all situations, even at 5V5, just look at 5V5 at first. They're down 8.3. The penguins had 66% of the scoring chances in this game. They also attend 8 high danger. And if you go to all situations, it's 62 to 37, 62% for possession. And then the high danger is 14 to 13. So also the Penguins' expected goals was 3.24.

They have three goals tonight. And the Rangers' expected goals for was 2.67, well, with seven minutes left. So that just goes to show, you know, they didn't get saves early. They were vomiting all over themselves in the defensive zone. And this is what happens. You get an 8-3 Shalakling. This is the first time the Penguins allowed eight goals in the season. And now this marks at least 15 goals they've allowed in their last two games.

Reason for concern? Yes, I would say that. You know, I'm a slightly concerned right now about the direction. I'm not ready to, you know, say, oh, my God, panic time like it's Philadelphia or, you know, some of these other teams. And I don't think the Rangers are going to get in the playoffs. but this is a team that can score in bunches. And, you know, they have elite talent. Adam Fox is good enough to win the Norris Trophy.

Artemy Panarin is a top 10 player in the league. Mika Zabanajad has really come on for the last month after a horrible start to the season. There was talk in the all season. He was potentially going to get like 9.5, 10 million per or something like that. But he's been great. But, you know, like I said, a lot of the mistakes for the Penguins tonight, you know, you look back, I think it was one-nothing. I mean, Sidney Crosby just has this errant pass,

probably the worst shift of his NHL career, excuse me, no idea what he was doing, just passed it blindly to a Rangers player, and then they're off to the races. He's playing defense. He did all he could, and then they were able to get that goal past Jari, and it's just like, yeah, I mean, you know it's going to be a bad night when Sid has a shift like that, and it's basically the worst shift of his NHL career.

You know, I'm going to get to the P.K. in just a second, just because, I mean, woof, that was, Horific. But, you know, Jari made his return tonight. Not a good night for him. I think allowed four goals on 11, 12 shots. This was a game at one point. Everyone, the Penguins were out shooting New York.

I think 28 to 13. I think right now it's almost 40 to 21. If I'm not mistaken, I mean, they've been out playing them this entire game. But the big thing is the Rangers have capitalized on their chances, and the Penguins have not. I mean, Evan Rodriguez hit, I think, the crossbar when it was still a three-goal game. That could have potentially made a difference. and there were some other really good shifts by the Penguins when they were only even down two

before the first period ended. They had to go into the second period only trailing by two and kill some of that penalty, but they couldn't even do that. And, you know, like I said, I'll get to the penalty kill here in just a second. But yeah, just a bad return for Tristan Jari. This is probably one of his five worst starts of the year. You know, like I said, I'm not really too concerned about the goaltending, but, you know, when you're giving up 15 goals in two games, I mean, there is a little cause for concern.

I guess, but like I said, I'm not overly concerned. You know, I did see a great tweet from Danny Shirey Irving of the Penns blog. If I can find it here real quick. I do not keep like 50 tabs open on my Mac. I'm just like not the kind of person that does this. You know, he says, Penguins fans when the team is getting outplayed but the goaltenders are standing on their heads. Oh my God, this team is showing shades of 2016.

Penguins fans when the team dominates play but can't get a save, the king is dead. The king is dead. Yes. The second thing is basically what happened tonight. I thought the Penguins dominated play for a lot of this game. the shots right now with about 440 left, 41 to 25. So, yeah, I mean, like, when you put up 41 shots and you usually hold the opposition to 25 shots, you're normally winning those games.

You're especially not giving up eight goals on 25 shots. That almost never happens. You have a 99% chance of that not happening. If you look at, I think, the probability per cent meter, I think it's on Monique puck or something like that. The Penguins usually are winning games like this, 73% of the time, according to that metric. The Rangers would only be winning 27% of the time.

It's just, it's not your night, especially when stuff like this happens. And if you look at the Rangers expected goals for on their eight goals, 1.49 at 5V.5. I mean, three of their goals were deflections, for God's sakes. And, you know, obviously those were going on as goals. But like I said, it's not your night when stuff like that happens. I mean, Pedersen, Marino knocked a puck in.

I think Blackwell's goal went off Mike Matheson and in. Pasture's Indar. I mean, if that doesn't go in, who knows what happens with this game. So, just I think, a lot of bad luck for the Penguins tonight. I think it's just mainly one of those games for Pittsburgh. But they'll get these guys again on Thursday 7 p.m. Eastern start. I'm going to touch on a little bit of positives right now. I guess Jake Gensel gets his 17th goal of the season.

Very nice job on him. He leads the team in goals because, you know, he always does for the last couple of years now. It seems. Mike Matheson had a great goal. Really nice red shot coming in, I think, to cut the lead back to three. but then gave it all away when he just basically vomited all over himself when Adam Fox made it 7 to 3. And yes, Adam Fox is easily top two. Am I Norris Ballot. He has been outstanding this season for the Rangers. He is going to be a pain to play against for the Penguins. That's for damn sure.

And I'm absolutely turning off the game now. There's four minutes left, but I mean, I don't really need to watch this to record. I already know what happened. I've watched enough 56 of the 60 minutes to know what is going to happen for the rest of the game. At least the Flyers are losing. But, you you know, it comes at the hands of the Boston Bruins. They will be four points behind the Penguins it looks like after they win this game in regulation. God willing, at least I don't need another three-point game. So at least the gap between the Penguins and Flyers will still be at nine points. But the Bruins will be four points behind Pittsburgh.

I think they'll have two games in hand. So worst case, they would be tied with Pittsburgh if they won both those games and the Penguins ended up losing. But, you know, they still have quite a nice cushion for a playoff spot. I mean, they're nine points up on the Flyers, and they're going to be nine points up on the Rangers. the Penguins are still five and two against the Rangers this season, and they'll get these guys again on Thursday. So not all is lost. I'm expecting the goal tending to be a lot better on Thursday. I'm going back to the positives, like I said, Jake Gensel gets his 17th.

Mike Matheson gets a nice goal. Jared McCann gets his 10th goal this season. I honestly wouldn't replace him on the top power play. I think he's been playing great on that unit. He has a shot first mentality, which some of the other players don't have. I saw the Penguins overpassing a little bit on the power plate tonight, which I didn't like. You know, they're still doing some of these drops. passes, which is just kind of annoying at this point.

I think when it was 6 to 3, Gensel had a great opportunity to kind of flubbed the puck in which led the Rangers to breaking out of their own zone and getting a short-handed chance before their goal that they had with Fox. So again, it's not your nightwing Gensel just flabbing the puck in his own zone on the power play because he 99% of the time does not do that when it comes to his powerplay minutes. And you know, I think with positives, that's really all I can muster up. The team probably deserved a little bit of a better result tonight than to score. have eight goals scored on them,

especially with three of them, being deflections and the goaltending, not making a save early. I mean, in most cases, when you, like I said, you allow 25 shots, you're not going to allow eight goals. So even if you take those away,

it's still a five piece, and I would expect Sullivan to absolutely rip the team after the game. I'll be curious to see what he says to the media. Also, you know, the trade deadline six days away, I don't think Hextall and Burke can wait too much longer if they want to make a move. Obviously, you know,

they're looking at centers, maybe a right wing or something like that. But with this performance, I think Hextall is going to be working the phones a little bit more tomorrow as now they'll have five more days to make a trade. But, you know, it's just so quiet right now when it comes to the market just because it's really honestly a seller's market. You know, the buyers don't want to pay the prices yet because I think they're waiting

for prices to come down. And, you know, a lot of teams are just not looking to add money because of COVID. But we'll see if some Domino's fall later on this week. Maybe Hector and Burke will be the first to make a trade. But, you know, my overall thoughts after ranting for the first however many minutes here, let's just take a look at my recording for the first eight to nine minutes. Don't freak out everyone. Yes, I understand 15 goals in the last two games is very bad.

That is confirmed. I can confirm that for you all. I would not expect them to allow that many goals in the next game. This is a team that wins 16 straight games with allowing three or less goals. I expect that to get, I expect them to revert back to that on Thursday, excuse me, especially with how I think Sullivan is going to rip into them in the postgame. And there is some good news. I did not.

I don't know if all of you saw this. Fgeny Malkin will be skating tomorrow in Pittsburgh. He's not on the road trip for obvious reasons with his injury, but according to Mike DeFabo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, he will be starting to skate on his own in Pittsburgh. So great news on that front. Maybe Teddy Blugher will be back. I keep saying that he's going to be back. I mean, especially after two-fall practices, and for some reason they're just, you know, not bringing him back here.

I guess they don't want to rush him. I understand that just because he's a very important player for this team. But, you know, maybe we'll see if they can have him back on Thursday. And, okay, of course, the Penguins get a goal with about a couple minutes remaining. Brian Dumlin actually gets his first goal of the season. So 8 to 4. So that's probably going to be your final 8 to 4 here. What a wild game overall this was.

Nice to see Brian Dumlin finally get a goal this year. I think he's been deserving of, you know, not just one, but a couple. and the assist was from Radim Sohorn. So he gets his second point as an NHL or the Penguins version of Mark Dong. So yes, we're bearing anything unforeseen, it is going to be an 8-4 final. So like I said, great for Brian Dunlin there. So there's another positive for the Penguins is that Brian Dunlin gets his first goal of the year. But we have a lot more to get to in the next segment, especially when it comes to the penalty kill,

because that unit is just absolutely awful. I'm going to do a big rant and did that. But before we do that, it is time to talk about rockado.com. It's a family business starting auto-bought customers online for 20 years. You go to rockado.com shop for auto and barry parts of hundreds of manufacturers. The catalog on the site is unique and merriically easy to navigate. You can quickly see all the parts available for your vehicle and choose the brands, specifications and prices you prefer.

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all the parts of cover I ever need that is rock auto dot com All right welcome back to this episode of the Locked on Penguins podcast I'm your host Hunter Hodes follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes

so all this show is Twitter at LO underscore Penguins before I get to some other stuff let's just touch on the Penguins Pek here absolutely brutal night for that unit I'm not really mad about a lot of this team's performance

tonight because you look at the underlying numbers, like I pointed out earlier in the show. I get to the final results later on. It was mostly a good performance. They didn't get the balances on the goaltending stung. But the PK left a lot to be desired. And that's basically been the same all year. You know, it's moved up a little bit.

Overall, in league rings, I think they were 19th coming into this game. The Rangers had the 22nd powerplay. And to allow the Rangers to go three for three on the powerplay in this game. Like I said, that power play was bottom third in the league. That's absolutely embarrassing. The same problems that I have talked about on this podcast for weeks were prevalent there tonight. There's so much puck watching when I watch this unit. It's just no one is making a B-line for the puck, but not protecting the middle of the ice, really.

Again, they're just allowing anyone to stand in front of the net with no repercussions at all. I mean, you're allowing Chris Crider to stand there, basically baking a cake almost. And that was one of the goals I think that the Rangers scored early on, is that Jari couldn't even see it from the right-hand boards. And like I said, they're not doing anything to get Crider out of the way. And it's just like, I mean, that's the same issues that have plagued them all season. And they're not getting any clears when they are getting the puck. They're just giving it right to the Rangers defenders.

So it was an all-around brutal night for the Penguins penalty killers. I mean, Mark Janowski's out there. Killing penalties makes me want to just cry myself to sleep, to be honest with you all. I just, I cannot watch Mark Jankowski play hockey for this team. anymore. I did read the report on the athletic, I think, from Josh Joey, that the Penguins front office is not particularly too happy with Shankowski. And it's like, wow, you think? He's been one of the worst players this year. If you look at, you know, the expected goals for when he's on the ice versus when he's not on the ice, that'll tell the story right there. But overall, yeah,

same issues came up for the Penguins penalty killers. And, you know, there needs to be a fix soon for that. You know, there were like, I think, you know, six, seven, eight straight games where the PK was actually showing some signs of like. There were some improvements. There were some improvement. I know Tanev and Bluger were out, but it was like, wow, you know, there could be the signs of this PK getting back to last year's form a little bit. And now it just goes down the drain, especially against a team that has a power play that ranks bottom third in the league. You know, hopefully Blugher will come back on Thursday. That should help the PK a little bit. I know Brandon Tanev is out week to week now. Yes, you know, like I said, it's a soul for a soul

with this team. That guy just came back for two games almost, and then he got hurt again. So it's just, I'll never understand when it comes to this team and injuries. Looking around the league a bit, the Islanders did get another win tonight. They beat the Capitals, actually. They shut them out one to nothing. So that's huge. So it's still only a four-point deficit for the Penguins in the East Division. Though I think the Bruins also just won, if I'm not mistaken.

If I can go to the Flyers' Twitter account, because that is some god-tier content, everyone, if you just want to say, yes. The Flyers just lost 4 to 2 to the Bruins, so they are still nine points back of the Penguins, as all. the New York Rangers. So, yeah, the Penguins are still very safely in a playoffs right now. You just want to make sure that you don't go on a huge losing streak like the Flyers in the month of March. That would just be an epic collapse of, you know, huge proportions that I don't see happening for the Penguins in the month of April, just because the schedule is so soft here down the stretch. But, you know, they got to start getting some bodies back here at some point.

Hopefully that starts with Teddy Blugher on Thursday, and then, again, E. He Malkin, potentially, and the next week or two is he's starting to skate on Wednesday. And then there's still no update yet on Caputin, and I think he's still doing his off-ice rehab for his injury. I'm trying to think of other stuff to talk about with this game. I really don't have a lot for you. I've basically been ranting now for, what, 15 minutes? It's really just one of those games, everyone.

I mean, I rehashed the same things probably 1,500 times now, and I'm sure, you know, maybe some of you have clicked off the podcast. I 100% understand it. I just don't have a lot tonight. I'm going to have Nick Zarraris on tomorrow, who does stuff for the Gotham Sports Network and does the Upper Bowl GM podcast to talk about the ring. dangers and, you know, preview the game on Thursday.

I'll have a recap episode on Thursday. But there really is just not a lot to talk about for this game just because, you know, the Penguins were the better team, but, you know, when you allow eight goals, you know, three of them on deflections and you don't get a save, this is the result that you get when allowing eight goals in a game. So now if I update Statrick, I look at the final results at 5E5. The Penguins had 65% of the scoring chances.

13 and 9, four high danger. You know, scoring chances, score, scoring chances against. 26 to 16. The expected goals for a 5-85. Here are the final numbers for you all. 2.48 for the Penguins, 1.65 for the Rangers. So, yes. Is this sport stupid to everyone?

Yes. Hockey is very stupid. It makes no sense. I sometimes wonder why I watch this sport as much as I do. Now, if you want to go to all situations, it gets even better for Pittsburgh. 62.5% of the scoring chances. If you look at Corsy, scoring chances score, 36 for the Penguins, 27 for the Rangers. 17 high danger chances for the penguins,

14 for the Rangers. So the fact that they only had four goals on 17 high danger chances is something else. You look at all situations, the Penguins had an expected goals for of 3.63. The Rangers expected goals for at 2.84. So yes, quite a bit of luck played into the Rangers' performance of eight goals tonight.

This was not like them scoring nine on the flyers basically two times in the last couple of weeks where they actually dominated them. A lot of this performance tonight I thought was pretty much luck based by the Rangers, but still, you know, a lot of defensive issues to clean up. I saw Brian Rush just had a quote now on Twitter saying, you know, we're playing really sloppy, we're not playing as a team, we got to get back to doing what we were doing for the last 16 games and we'll play much better. And yeah, you know, it's as simple as that.

Fans are going to react just because that's what fans do. I'm here to tell you all, it's not time to panic just yet. It's two games. You know, the one on Saturday, you know, that was a very close affair. You know, I know it was 7-5, but, you know, with a minute 15 left in that game, that was a 6-5 game. game and despite some bad defensive play, they were in that game because they were converting on their chances. This was a classic game tonight for the Penguins where they were getting quite a bit of really good scoring chances, but they were not catching in on their opportunities while the Rangers, every time it seemed like they had a scoring chance, they just put it in the

back of their net. That's hockey. That's what happens. Like I said, I probably just spent the last three minutes saying the same thing in like 500 different ways. But, you know, that's the content that you all are going to get for this episode. I think that will do it for this segment, coming up in the next segment, I'm going to try to do maybe a couple listener takeaways as we'll also touch you on a couple other things. First off, let's talk about bed online, the fastest, easiest way to bed on all your sports section.

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And here's another stat for you all. The Rangers suiting percentage at 5E5. Tonight was 24%. That is not going to happen on Thursday. So again, you know, another insane number for the Rangers that 99% of the time across the league just does not happen on any given night. But all right, let's get to a few listener takeaways here, having done that in a little bit. We'll first start here with Alan C. Yoder. Pence played Super Bowl for a while.

No way they could have kept it going all the way throughout the playoffs. I know there's not too much time left, but they're definitely going to cool off for a little bit. Get healthy and get ready to heat back up. Yeah, I mean, absolutely, Alan. I mean, first and foremost, as someone else also wrote in the comments, boss, as boss says, 4-127-24-Pet, maybe stay healthy. Yeah, like this team does need to stay healthy, and they need to get healthy quickly here if they do want to make a run because, you know, they can play their system that they

were playing for the last 18 games with everyone healthy. We've seen them do before 2016 and 2017. I know it was a little bit of different personnel, but the way they were playing in those 16 games, it resembled a lot of what the Penguins did in 2016 when they went to win the Stanley Cup that year. So yes, obviously there was going to be some regression, but getting back to a little bit of how they played during that stretch is going to be paramount for this team to not only make the playoffs, but going a deep run. Alan also says, well, I'm a believer in the hotter teams tend to do better, so a stretch like this isn't always bad thing. And I don't like it by doing this could be good for them come playoffs.

That's just me. Yeah, I agree, Alan. I mean, maybe this could be the game that kind of humbles them a little bit and it has them take a step back, go look at the video, see what they did wrong. You know, some of the deflections, obviously you can't really blame them. end for just because, you know, it's just a lucky deflection. But, you know, some of the other play, especially with Sidney Crosby, who had probably his worst game of the season tonight, I know, he'll want to go back in the video and see what he did wrong and clean that up. And, you know, just, especially the play with Mike Matheson that led to Adam Fox's shorthanded goal, no idea what

he's trying to do in the defensive zone trying to skate around me because of Bannajad like that and just do a 360, just past the puck, man, just really don't know what he was doing there. Big Money, AP1 says, Pedersen and Severe need to take a seat. I can't watch them play anymore. It's mind-boggling me that Severe played over Angel who has become really good for us. Yeah, but the Colton Severe stuff, I don't really understand. He doesn't bring anything to the lineup. I mean, you know, throwback to when Jim Rutherford said that they would be saving money on the cap when they threw in Colton Severe with the Patronquist trade. I will just probably die on that hill that trade was so bad, and they actually added salary with that move. So, yeah, Colen Severe really has not done

anything for the team this season. Pedersen, it wasn't a strong game from him. I know he was part of what I think it was the Rangers fifth goal, sixth goal, something like that, where the puck kind of deflected off him and Marino into the net, excuse me, not his finest moment there. That's for sure. He has struggled a lot this season, especially with his foot speed. I still think he is going to play down the stretch. If he does not get traded, I don't foresee him getting traded, though it does make a lot of sense to trade him because they can potentially put P.O. Joseph up there or Mark Freeman or someone else, maybe even Yuselro, but he's kind of the number nine. defense, and I think right now.

But I understand why people are a bit down on Pedersen, just because his play has deteriorated a bit this year. But, you know, you also look at, if you look at the underlying numbers, him next to Marino, they're above 50% of unexpected goals for and for possession. So it's not all lost with him, but it's definitely a step down to him this season, that's for sure.

And yes, I do agree with you with Xavier. Mr. Nodal says, Rangers skated circles around us, won the puck battles, P.K. Spathetic, and the goalies went back to early season performances. defensive zone, they were flat-footed. New York came up with speed, and we constantly gave up Bobman rushes. Very concerning the last five periods.

Yeah, I mean, I get what you're saying. I wouldn't call it very concerning, though. I disagree with you on that. I think it's a slight concern. I mean, it is a bit concerned that they gave up 15 goals in the last five periods. But I also don't expect that to continue moving forward because I trust Mike Sullivan as his team's head coach.

He's one of the five best coaches in hockey. And I expect him to go into the video on their off day and just clean up the mistakes that they've been making these last five periods, because this was not the Penguins that we have been seeing for the last month, month and a half. But yes, the PK was bad, the Rangers. I wouldn't say they were honestly skating circles around them.

I kind of disagree with that as well, but they did win more puck battles, and yes, the goalie's last five periods have reverted back to the early season struggles. I don't foresee that happening too much down the stretch. They better hope it doesn't happen. I mean, you know, you saw what happened with the Flyers goal tending in the month of March, because that basically sank their season.

Carter Hart, I think, was, you know, allowing 14 goals more, I think, above expected or something like that, which was, I think, one of the five worst marks in the league. That plummeted their playoff chances all the way down to, I think, to 10%. Last time I checked on Montypuk and from Dom's model. So, yeah, that's what happens when you can get goal-tending, bad goal-tending, that is, for a full month. So two games, yes, a little bit of a slight concern, but I don't foresee that being a major concern moving forward.

I expect the goal is to be a lot better for the next game. I'm not really sure who's going to start, just because Jari came back from injury. I mean, I would have to think that they might go back to Jari just so he can redeem himself, but I'm still not really sure, especially because both goalies have played pretty bad these last couple of outings. But I think that will do it for this episode of the Locktime Penguins podcast. I appreciate a few of you sending in your listener takeaways. For those of you that send them in after this recording, I will answer them on the Locktime Penguin's Twitter account. Remember, tomorrow I'm going to have Nick Zararis on from Gotham Sports Network in the Upper Bowl GM

podcast. And I'm also going to make an appearance on his podcast. as well to talk about the team and I'm sure stuff around the NHL as well. So thank you all so much for listening to this one and I will talk to you all on Wednesday.