Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Of the Penguins new additions, who makes the biggest impact this season?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Which of the Penguins' newest members will make the biggest impact this upcoming season? Pat and I are going to discuss that right after this. You're Locked-on Penguins, your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello, welcome back to another episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I am one of your host, Hunter Hodes. You can follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes, joined by my post Patrick Damp.

Starting point is 00:00:33 You can follow him on Twitter at Centumfrewet, and you can follow the show's account at L.O underscore Penguins. Of course, thank you all so much for making this your first listen slash watch of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. And finally, today's episode is brought to you by Fandul, make every moment more. As the playoffs flying down, the sports, stop sporting like we want them to. But this summer, Fandul is hooking up all customers with a boost or a bonus daily. That's right.

Starting point is 00:00:58 There is something for everyone every day, summer long, visit fandul.com to get started. So on Wednesday, the NHL roster's official Twitter account tweeted out the newest numbers for the new members of the Pittsburgh Penguins for the 2024-2020 season. And for those that don't know, the Anshel roster's Twitter account, it's the former Depth Charts Manager with Cat Friendly, who of course was bought by the Washington Capitals. They tracked NHL transactions, injuries, lineups, roster news, and all that good stuff. And so for the newest members of the Penguins, Kevin Hayes, he will be with. wearing 13. Matt Griswick will be wearing 24, Sebastian Aalho 25, Blake Lazotte 46, and Anthony

Starting point is 00:01:37 Bavillier 72. Yes, he will be getting Patrick Hornquist number. I really hope nobody gets too jammed about that overall, even though, yes, Patrick Hornquist, very much Penguins royalty during this era of Penguins hockey with everything he accomplished for the organization. But that got us thinking, which of these players will make the biggest difference or impact to the team this year? And I've kind of going back and forth on a couple. But when it comes down to it, I'm going to give the slightest edge to Blake Lazott. I think he is a bona fide fourth line center in the NHL. I think he will give the Penguins double-digit goals this upcoming season. I think he will also become one of their better penalty killers overall. He was on the penalty kill for over a hundred minutes this

Starting point is 00:02:21 past season with the Kings. I think he's going to be used a little bit more with Mike Sullivan on the Penguins this upcoming year. He'll throw his body around. He gets physical. Again, really, good player in all three zones. I really like the contract. I think he's the fourth line center that this team has kind of been lacking for the last couple of years. I think when I look at all the new guys they've signed and I could be wrong here, I think Lazot is going to make the biggest impact overall. Pat, what say you? Before I get into it, Hunter, you brought up Patrick Hornquist there and I just want to throw a name out at you. And that name is Andrew Ebbett. You remember what jersey number he wore with the Pittsburgh Penguins? I'm going to guess here. What is it,

Starting point is 00:03:06 25 if I recall correctly? Yes. You know who else wore 25? Max Talbot, a guy who scored two game seven goals to win a Stanley Cup in 2009. Don't get me wrong. I understand the sentiment. I understand why people would be a little upset with it. But at the end of the day, you remember the impact the player had. And unless they're an absolutely generational talent like Lemieux, Crosby, so on and so forth. jersey number is not that big of a deal. We didn't really care about 72 after Patrick Hornquist. And let's be honest, it's not that historic of a number. I mean, former Wheeling Naylor's head coach Jeff Christian wore 72 at one point for the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Starting point is 00:03:48 So anyway, back to the original content. Yeah, I go back and forth on this. I'm with you with Lazot. I think, like you said, that's a great depth pickup. I think he's going to do wonders in the bottom six. for this team. But with that in mind, I know that not everybody is high on him. And this isn't me saying that he's going to have some massive resurgence and become a breakout star for the penguins. But I also think there's going to be a lot of help in the bottom six with a guy like

Starting point is 00:04:15 Kevin Hayes. I think the track record is there. He fits a mold of a player this team. Similar to Lazot has been missing for quite a while. He's not afraid to go to the dirty areas. He's not afraid to stick his butt in front of the net and make things happen. And he's a physical player. And we've seen it the past few years in the Stanley Cup playoffs. And granted, we're going to talk about the Penguins playoff chances later on in the show. You do have to have a bit of bite in the modern NHL. This isn't 2016, 2017 anymore, though I will say those Penguins teams were very sneakily

Starting point is 00:04:52 physical. It's not, we briefly had that period where teams were just fast and skilled. Now you've got to have some snarl. You've got to have some toughness. And Kevin Hayes brings that. Yeah, he's not the fastest guy. He's not the most skilled guy, but he can bang in a few goals. And if you have him in the right situation,

Starting point is 00:05:13 I think he's going to do a good job in the bottom six for the penguins. So other than that, I mean, it's not that Sebastian Ojo. So we'll see what he does in a depth role. Anthony Bavillier, I think he's a solid bounceback candidate. don't think he's as bad as he's been the last couple of years. I think he just hasn't been in good situations. And then Matt Griswick, I don't know. That's a player where I'm just going to drop any kind of analysis and just wait to see what happens because he's either completely cooked and not the player he was a few years ago or he just hit a year slump. We don't know. But for me,

Starting point is 00:05:52 the two biggest candidates to make an impact are Kevin Hayes and Blake Lazot. Yeah, Hayes on the third line, I'm at least intrigued and fascinated about just because I think he can definitely do some damage with some finishers next to him, someone like a Valatari Pustin who does have a really strong release on this team or even someone like a Drew Connor. If he gets, you know, I guess demoted down there, quotation marks, but I don't even really feel like it's a demotion for O'Connor just because I just don't think he's a full-time top line winger overall on this team. But having O'Connor down there after his 16 goal 33-point campaign, that would be really nice to work with when it comes to Kevin Hayes. So yeah, I definitely see that. I think with Bo Villiers,

Starting point is 00:06:31 if he rebounds to someone who scores 13 to 15 goals, I'll take that as a win. I really will. I definitely think he's not as good as he used to be. He's not the, you know, 18 to 20 goal score that he was when he was on the Islanders, for example. But if he can come in and contribute 12, 13 to 15 goals this upcoming season for the Penguins, I will 1 million percent take that overall. And Grizzlik, yeah, I mean, do I expect him to get back to the level that we saw him play at two years ago when he was an analytic starling, one of the most underrated defensemen in the league? No, but I also don't think he's going to be hopefully flat out awful for the penguins on the left side. I do feel like there's at least something to work with when it comes to him. And then Sebastian Ojo, you know, decent depth signing.

Starting point is 00:07:15 If he's your number six, number seven, that's not going to hurt you. But, yeah, Lazot number one for me. If there's like a 1B, I would say Kevin Hayes. And then I would go, it's close. Beauvillier Grislich after that. I'd probably put Bovillier third than Grislyik fourth, but you can interchange those any way you want. Right.

Starting point is 00:07:33 And the one thing that gives me some hope with Bavillier is that you look at his best years at the end of the 2010s and into the early 2020s. He was scoring 18, 15, 12, even 21 goals on a New York Islanders team that didn't do a lot of scoring. So him being able to contribute those kind of numbers on a team that was more known for its defensive play than its offense. And you bring him into a team that while is not the type of go get them offense,

Starting point is 00:08:06 it has been in the past, there is some hope there. At the same time, though, I'm not at all expecting him to get back to that level. But eight to 10 goals in that range, I think is solid. anything more to me as a bonus from him. But, you know, like I said, during the time it was rumored they were going to sign them. All the numbers show us that he is a pure penguin. He does everything right analytically, except put the puck in the net. So, yeah, I mean, overall, like you look at these additions and we don't want to heap

Starting point is 00:08:40 too big of expectations on them. They're solid role players, solid depth players, and we need to hope that they perform as such. I got to say, I understand your take about eight to ten goals and, you know, the contract for Beauvilliers is really nothing much at all. But I kind of will be a little disappointed if he finishes with eight to ten. I kind of feel like he's prime for a little bit more than that on the Penguins here, especially he'll be in a better situation this year. I feel like compared to last year, I think more than ten goals is a fair expectation for him. Maybe not even 15 for some people, but I think at least more than 10, you know, again, for me, if he's in that 12 to 15 range,

Starting point is 00:09:18 I will be totally fine with that just because I need more production out of the bottom six this year overall. So I think that would do it for this first segment of today's episode. Let us know who you think will make the biggest difference of these newcomers down in the comments on YouTube, or you can send us a DM on social media and all that good stuff. But coming up in the second segment, we're going to look at Eric Carlson heading into his second season of the Penguins. Will there be bigger expectations for him this year? Pat and I are going to discuss that in segment two. but before we get to that, we have to tell you all about our first sponsor, and that is Fandall.

Starting point is 00:09:52 I love sports. I love them so much that I never want them to stop. But as the playoffs wind down, we get fewer games and the sports aren't sporting like I want them to. But Fandall lets me keep the sports going whenever I want. All I have to do is open the app and dream up bets anytime I'm in the mood. And this summer, Fandle is hooking up all customers with a boost or a bonus daily. That's right. There is something for everyone every day all summer long.

Starting point is 00:10:15 So head on over to fandul.com and start making the most out of your summer. That is Fandle, the official sports betting partner of Major League Baseball. All right. We're back here in this episode of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. I'm one of your host, Hunter Hodes, joined by my host, Patrick Dam. So Eric Carlson, very much a big talking point in Penguins land, virtually every day, whatever platform you're on, to be honest. And this past season, you know, we discussed during his season review, didn't live. up to a lot of expectations.

Starting point is 00:10:49 I mean, heck, I even expected more out of him this year. Only 11 goals, 56 points, and 82 games. I thought he was going to be a player who would score 70 to 75 to even 80 points for the Penguins this past season. He did not come close to that at all. Part of that is because the team was once again terrible finishing. Another part of it was because of how bad power play was. But another part of that was just because it took him a little bit, I think, to fit in

Starting point is 00:11:12 with the Penguins overall. But you saw him play, I think, the best hockey of his. brief penguins tenure towards the late stages of this past season. And that's why I'm more bullish on him heading into the 2024-2020-5 season. Once he got his feet wet, especially late in the season, he looked like the Eric Carlson that we saw the season prior with the San Jose sharks, at least in spurts or even in years prior to that season with the sharks. He was making better decisions with the puck.

Starting point is 00:11:41 He was firing more pucks to the net. His skating ability, the way he was able to walk the blue line was, flawless. He was even improving in areas in his own zone at times. I know he wasn't good in his own this year, but people, he's never been a good player in his own zone. That is not Eric Carlson's game as a whole. But I do think with working with David Quinn being more acclimated, hopefully with this team, the power play, being better than it was this past season. I mean, you can hopefully only go up from there. I do think he is in line for a season where he will score 70 to 75 points. I think those are very fair and very reasonable expectations for someone of Eric Carlson's value.

Starting point is 00:12:21 Yes, I understand he's going to be another year older, but I don't think even though he's in his mid-30s, that this is a 56-point player at this stage of his career. I do think he's going to be better next year. If I'm wrong, so it won't be the first time, definitely won't be the last time. But I really do think we're going to be in line for a good bounce back campaign from Carlson. I'm with you. And I think the biggest marker is the way. he ended the season. You look at the way he played away from just the visual of it. You look at the

Starting point is 00:12:51 numbers, points in seven of his last eight, and multiple of those were multi-point games. And he was, like you said, playing a lot like the Eric Carlson we saw in San Jose, where he just owned the puck. He was not afraid to take chances in the right way. He also had that great overtime winner against the Red Wings, which was a huge galvanizing moment for that team at the time. After screwing up in the third period, it was just nice to see him get that moment after how poorly he played in the third period, just because he was great, those first two periods, those first 40 minutes, some of the best hockey he's played all season. Then he just totally disconnected his controller and it was just like, what are we doing

Starting point is 00:13:34 right here? But it was nice to see him redeem himself in overtime just because that's what great players do overall. We may screw up like that. You see them get it. right and that's exactly what happened. Absolutely. And then you add in the fact that you bring in a guy like David Quinn, who he's got familiarity with, played some of his best hockey under. And it shows that the team is committed to making this work. And I know this is a bit of an almost an excuse

Starting point is 00:14:04 making exercise for Eric Carlson. But first year in a new system, and it's not just like he went from Ottawa to San Jose where, oh, okay, like, this is Ottawa's best player. This is who, or San Jose, excuse me, who they went out to get. We're talking about a franchise that has won three Stanley Cups with a core of three players who have been together the longest in history in North American sports. There is no trio of players who have been together longer than Crosby, Malkin, and Letang. and that's a daunting task, especially when you are a very good, too great player like Eric Carlson, because you don't want to come in and pull a Roman reins and say, this is my yard now,

Starting point is 00:14:52 because that doesn't fly for people. They don't buy that. So that has to be a daunting task for him and just for anybody. But I think between the hiring of Quinn, the way he finished the season, that comfortability is there now. and he knows what risks he can take, how he can conduct himself. And you really want to hope that next year with David Quinn taking over the power play, that he is going to put his foot down and say, listen, this is your unit. This is your unit.

Starting point is 00:15:25 You run it. You are the general out there. You make the decisions. This runs through you and play that way. Because we've seen in his career, when he takes charge of a power play, it's a damn good power play. And then you add in the fact that he's going to have Crosby, Malkin, and whomever else on that power play, it's a very talented power play.

Starting point is 00:15:47 You expect them to make improvements next year. And lastly, he kind of said this to our pal Josh Yohe at the end of the year when they asked about the power play. They were just in such a doom spiral as a unit that even getting a goal on the board wasn't going to get them out of that funk. They never got off to a good start. It only was negative and they just could not get out of it. If you see the first five to 10 games this year, they hum along at say 20, 25-ish percent. This is a unit that could make a difference again because a good start is going to make all the difference for them and he has to be the catalyst behind it. Yeah, that last point that you just made, I was going to add on if you didn't say it because they need to have a good start with that unit

Starting point is 00:16:35 in the first three to five, seven, ten games, if this unit I think is going to be good throughout the year. We all saw just how much it was a struggle for them out of the gate. Like it just, it looked like something was fundamentally broken with that unit throughout the first month of the season. It never changed. I mean, heck, we can go back. I knew that unit was fully broken,

Starting point is 00:16:58 that home loss against the ducks. That five on three late in the third period, I'm like, okay, I don't know how the power play can even come back from that, even though it's so early on in the season, it just looked like a fully broken unit. And that continued for the rest of the season. A better start for that unit with more fresh ideas. And Carlson actually running it and not deferring it to some of the other players, I really think will help it overall. I mean, his underlines, just to switch gears a little bit, were, again, fairly solid this past season when he was on the ice, the Penguins had almost

Starting point is 00:17:28 55% of the shot attempts. He also had a 54% expected goal share, about 55% of the scoring chances, 57% of the high danger chances, he would have had quite a few more points if this team could finish both at 5 on 5 and on the power play. I think we would have been looking at him having 65, 70 plus points if this team was better at finishing their chances, both at even strength and on the man to manage. And I do think you'll see the power play improve at least a little bit next year.

Starting point is 00:17:57 At least I know I have a little bit of copium with that. And hopefully some of the moves they've made will turn out better than some people expect, you know, some us included, where they're finishing a bit more, and that's inflating some of the point holes a little bit more as well. I also think with this player, people had unrealistic expectations for him coming into last season. He was not going to be a 95 to a 100-point player for the Penguins. It was always going to be a bit lower than that. But because he didn't perform at that level, people were like, oh, this trade sings,

Starting point is 00:18:26 so he was terrible, all that stuff. No, the trade is still fine. I would make that trade any day of the week. I think people just didn't adjust some of their expectations. So now for year two, hopefully those people have adjusted those expectations a little bit to the point where maybe you're in my camp where I think 70 to 75 to 80 points, I think is very fair with the level that he can play at still in the NHL. I'm also of the mind with you as well that the expectations were really another big

Starting point is 00:18:57 issue with the power play because they, you're usually. remember how we talked about it. I mean, we did it on this show when they acquired him. We talked about how this power play could have sleptwalk to being the best in the national hockey league. And I understand, yes, these are professional athletes and these are some of the best professional athletes in the world. And they are compensated thusly. So when they don't perform, that's their failure. But again, we also forget that this is a group of human beings. And we put some serious unrealistic expectations on them. I mean, to the point, like I said, you and I talked about it on the show,

Starting point is 00:19:38 that we thought this power play was just going to almost by default be the best in the NHL, the exact opposite happens. You add all that into it. And that is going to really negatively affect your mentality and your performance. Now, this year, I'm not saying that you, you know, this isn't me saying, oh, go easy on them, guys, they're just these poor little pro. athletes. No, we expect them to win. That is the standard they hold themselves to. So it's the standard we will analyze them against. But I do think you look at the way they performed last year. You look at it logically and think, all right, this year, we just want you to be league average. We don't need you to go out and be the top power play in the National Hockey League. But with some fresh ideas with another off season without the playoffs to think about it, I do think that. There will be some motivation.

Starting point is 00:20:31 There will be some chips on the shoulders of the big guns here because we know how competitive the top dogs on this team are. And they might enter the cliche more than anybody of hating losing more than they like winning. So we could see some very motivated, very angry stars on the Penguins this year. You think these score players want to make the playoffs? Oh, I sure do. I mean, they made the playoffs for 16 straight years before missing these last two. they're very much an unfamiliar territory, they're going to try to do everything in their power

Starting point is 00:21:02 to at least see the playoffs one more time with the Penguins before they eventually retired. But I think that I'll do it for this second segment of today's podcast. Coming up in the final segment, we're going to look at some Penguins betting odds for the season, including their odds to win the Stanley Cup and their odds to make the Stanley Cup playoffs.

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Starting point is 00:22:31 That's Indeed.com slash locked on terms and conditions apply. If you need to hire, you need Indeed. All right. We're back to here on this episode of the Locked On Penguins podcast. I'm one of your host, Hunter Hodes. Join by my host Patrick Tamp. So let's look at some Penguins betting odds for this Ethan. Starting with their Stanley Cup odds plus 5,000, Pat. I think that's kind of fair overall just because they're not a Stanley Cup contender. And it would be a pretty big shot to, I think virtually anyone if this team wins a Stanley Cup. So I'm honestly not too surprised by those odds.

Starting point is 00:23:07 And those odds, by the way, are the Fandall, which of course, the official sports betting partner of locked on. So when you saw those odds, what did you think? I mean, it makes sense. And for those who may not totally understand betting odds, if you want to give it a percentage, it's 1.96%. So less than 2% chance, according to the odds makers that the Penguins will win the Stanley Cup. It's fair. I mean, we know this team isn't a Stanley Cup contender. Heck, we're going to talk about it in a couple minutes here. They're barely a playoff team right now, the way, you know, before we even have the season start,

Starting point is 00:23:41 before we have any performances. So you look at those odds. And I mean, if you're a dreamer and you want to make some money, go ahead and bet on the Penguins to win the 2025 Stanley Cup. If that hits, we're not going to make fun of you because we're going to ask you for lottery numbers. We're going to ask you for our future and our fortunes because you apparently know a lot more than the rest of us.

Starting point is 00:24:05 So again, plus 5,000. It's right in line with how we feel about this team. It would be an absolutely miraculous run if they somehow pulled it out on the Stanley Cup. Right. And as for their playoff odds, there are plus 128 to make the playoffs and minus 164 to miss the playoffs. I think that's also kind of fair. You know, obviously the betting odds are against them to make the playoffs this year.

Starting point is 00:24:30 So not too surprised by that, but plus 128 to make it. You know, I can see some people being tempted to hit the trigger button on that one. Yeah. And it kind of also, again, that falls in line with a lot of what we've talked about on the show is that it's pretty much a coin flip. They, they're pretty much looking at the penguins as. as a 50-50 playoff team. And I think that's about where we stand.

Starting point is 00:24:55 I mean, if you ask the question to either of us right now, would you be surprised if they missed the playoffs for a third consecutive year? We'd both probably say no. And if you were to say, hey, are they going to get back to the playoffs after missing them two years in a row? Would that be surprising? We'd probably say, no, that wouldn't be surprising either. Because you look at the Eastern Conference, and I'd say at this point,

Starting point is 00:25:18 the penguins are on the fringes. they're not a team that you're going to look at and go, okay, when the playoffs start, they'll be one of 16. But you're also not looking at them and go, no, there's no way this team makes the playoffs. So they could sneak in as a wild card. They could maybe surprise and pick up a third spot in the Metro if everything goes right. So again, those seem like very fair odds. If you think they have a chance, might not be worth putting a couple bucks down.

Starting point is 00:25:43 If you think they're going to miss, same deal. Might not, might be worth putting a couple bucks down on it. Right. I mean, I don't think they're going to be the worst team in the conference. I think they'll probably be in that, you know, middling category alongside a team like, you know, Buffalo, Detroit, you know, Washington maybe a little bit above them. The Islanders kind of right a little above them as well, kind of in that category as well. So that's why I see, you know, the plus 128 odds. And I'm not really surprised by that just because I think, you know, people, if people want to hit the trigger button on that,

Starting point is 00:26:10 I think those are at least decent odds, especially if everything goes right for the Penguins this year and they do get in. Again, even though I think right now both of us think this team probably, not a playoff team right now, but again, anything can happen once the season starts. So there are any other betting odds that you took notice of when you looked at them today? I mean, one of the ones that was very surprising to me was the Metropolitan Division odds. They have the same odds as the Philadelphia Flyers at plus 1,200. And I mean, which is the thing that stood out to me there is, yeah, I don't think there's a world where they win the Metropolitan Division.

Starting point is 00:26:45 So 1,200 feels right in line. but having it right there with the flyers feels a bit odd, even though they kind of finished in the same spot next to each other. The one that's wild to me is that Washington has 1,700 plus 1,700 to win. Now, again, I don't think that they're a contender to win the division, but I would say they are probably likelier to finish higher than the penguins, given their offseason moves. So that was a little bit surprising.

Starting point is 00:27:12 But other than that, I mean, you can kind of tell that this is a world where Vegas, isn't trying to get one over on you. You look at the odds for the penguins and they are pretty much right in line with who this team is. Looking at the Metro odds, I was a little surprised to see the Devils as the odds on favor to win the Metro. I like New Jersey this year. I think they're going to finish top three in the Metro, but I still think as of right now, the Rangers are probably the favorite to win that division. I think plus 220 for the for the Devils. I think that's a little too nice overall. I kind of need to fully see it before I believe in terms of them, winning the division again. I think they'll make the playoffs this year.

Starting point is 00:27:49 Winning the division, I'd pump the brakes a little bit on that just because of how the Rangers play this past year. And I do think they're the favorite to win the Metro again this year, this year, even though I don't think they're going to win the presence trophy this year. For sure. And I like New Jersey's off season a lot. I think, and I think just by default, if they get a little bit of health, they have much better goaltending than they had last year in a coach that knows how to maximize young talent in Sheldon Keith. I think that's going to put them right in the mix. But again, I don't know if I would put the, I don't know if I'd put them over the Rangers, but I could see them jumping over Carolina and maybe taking second in the

Starting point is 00:28:25 division this year. Yeah, I can see that too just because of how much talent Carolina lost, both at forward and on defense. I think Carolina, as of right now, definitely got worse this offseason overall. But I think that will do it for today's episode of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. Thank you all so much for taking the time to listen to slash watch this episode. Pat and I will be back with another show. if you all on Thursday. So until then, for Pat, I am Crunch for Hodes. Thank you all so much for taking the time to listen to this and we'll be back on Thursday.

Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Of the Penguins new additions, who makes the biggest impact this season?

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