Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Penguins don't get the lottery luck, drop two spots in the 2025 draft

Starting point is 00:00:00 Today on Locked-on Penguins, the lottery balls were not very kind to the Pittsburgh Penguins. We look back on another disappointing season for goaltender Tristan Jari, and two good friends will reunite this spring at the world championships. We will talk about that and more right after this. You're Locked-on Penguins, your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello and welcome back to another edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm one of your host, Patrick Damp. You can follow me across all social media platforms at Synonym 4 Wet, joined as always by the one and only our co-host Hunter Hodes.

Starting point is 00:00:49 You can follow him on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. You can give these shows Twitter accounts a follow at L.O. underscore Penguins. And of course, we appreciate you making us part of your daily routine. don't forget that we are free and available wherever you get your podcasts as well as YouTube and the Roku channel. Plus, if you're following us on YouTube, make sure to hit the notification button that way you can be among the first to know when we drop our daily Monday through Friday episodes. Hunter, I'm going to make a little bit of a Star Wars reference here. It's going to be a little bit of a reach, but whatever, you're a Star Wars nerd, so you'll appreciate it. The draft lottery for the penguins, at one point, it was a new hope.

Starting point is 00:01:33 And then just minutes later, the empire striked back. The penguins at one point on Monday night were a single lottery ball away from getting the first overall pick. And then just moments later, they slide from 9th to 11th. And it was, I'm going to actually, you know what, I'm going to start here. I have to give ESPN and the NHL their flowers here. They did a very good job with the draft lottery broadcast. Granted, not a high bar, but this was entertaining to watch. They did a solid job explaining what the process was.

Starting point is 00:02:16 They did a solid job of showing us the process and then giving us graphics that showed, here's who moved up, here's who didn't, here's who is still in the running. and everything in between. There was no, I don't get this. I don't get what's happening. This makes no sense. Granted, it's a lot of math. It's a lot of statistics.

Starting point is 00:02:37 But they did enough of a good job to make you understand, here's who can still get the first pick. Here's who can't. Here's who moved up. Here's who moved down. And I really appreciated that. To the point where, as I started with, it got to the point where three balls were drawn

Starting point is 00:02:56 for the first overall pick, they put up the graphic and you go, oh my God, the penguins can actually win the first overall pick here. They need either a draw of a number one or a draw of a number 10. And you know what you're watching for. You're not just sitting there going, well, we'll see whatever ball comes out next. And then they'll tell us what this means. You knew what it was. And I got to say, as a kid who grew up in a home where we watched Jeopardy every night and the thing that came on TV right before Jeopardy started was the Pennsylvania lottery drawings. That's the most fun I've ever had in my life watching a lottery draw

Starting point is 00:03:33 because there were actual stakes involved. So got to give them kudos for that, but let's bring it back to this. This went from almost an incredible night for us as Penguins fans to pretty heartbreaking. Now, this is the last thing I'll say, and I'll toss it over to you, Hunter, is I get that everybody wants to turn everything into a hot take. Everybody wants to turn everything into all good or all bad.

Starting point is 00:04:02 The penguins at the end of the day have moved back two spots in a draft that's not very deep. Yes, you are a million percent right. A lot of this draft is a crapshoot. Yes, you have the top four. You have Mesa, Schaefer. Hagan's Martone. I have Eklund at number five on my big board. But you might see some crazy stuff in the top 10. You might see a player going the top 10 and you're like, whoa, I had that guy, for example, in the 15 to 20 range. You know, someone again, like for me with Roger McQueen.

Starting point is 00:04:31 I think McQueen has a lot of talent, but the biggest thing with him is that the medicals really scare me. But I can at least see someone in the top 10 taking that risk. Heck, I could even see the penguins potentially taking that risk and betting on the talent and betting that he can get himself healthy. I personally would not take that risk. I would go with someone else at number 11, but I'm only a person with a microphone. I don't work in an NHL front office.

Starting point is 00:04:53 I'm not West Clark. By the way, West Clark, very good at his job, people. I would not doubt him going into this draft. I saw so many takes on social media yesterday, Pat. Oh, my God, this is a complete disaster for the penguins and all this other stuff. Like, oh, this is why you don't win these meaningless games down the stretch and all that. And it's like, New York Islanders won the draft lottery by winning more games than the Penguins.

Starting point is 00:05:18 The Penguins just got crappy luck. That is what it is at the end of the day. They got bad luck. They moved down two spots. That's all you need to say. Like, you don't need to keep putting out hot takes or anything like that. Is it unfortunate? Yes.

Starting point is 00:05:33 Is it annoying? Yes. Was it the worst possible outcome for them? Yes. Is it a complete disaster? No. It's not a complete disaster. sir. I just, I hated seeing that take from a lot of people last night, whether,

Starting point is 00:05:49 no matter what platform it was. I trust West Clark and Kyle Dubus to get this pick right. Again, as I just said a couple minutes ago, even if they, for example, take someone like McQueen at 11, I might disagree with it a little bit, but I will understand why they make that pick because they're betting on the talent and they're betting that he can get himself healthy. Now, if it's not McQueen, there are still going to be. a lot of good players that they can pick at the number 11 spot. I'm going to throw a few names at you, who I really like.

Starting point is 00:06:20 Carter Bear, for example, Kay Sean Aitchinson, a very physical defenseman who can also bring a lot of offense. He'd be a lot of fun to watch in the Penguin system. Those are two right there. Ben Kindle, I think, could also be there. Again, those are just three right off the bat. The dream, I know they've moved two more spots down, but the dream is still very much Victor Eklund.

Starting point is 00:06:40 Some teams may pass on because he's a bit of a smaller Ford. if he's there again, I very much race to the podium. But there's four right there. I'll even throw Jake O'Brien in there if he falls. His stock is rising right now, so I think he very well may go in the top 10. But Pat, there's five names right there. And I think at least a good chunk of them

Starting point is 00:06:59 could be available to the Penguins at number 11. So they're still going to get a good prospect with that pick. Is it going to be someone that can play next year? No. Probably not. It's probably going to be someone that is ready at a minimum two years. Most likely, though, three to four down the line. Now, when it comes to the Rangers pick, in my humble opinion now,

Starting point is 00:07:26 I think they are going to keep this pick and they are going to give the Penguins a 2026 first round pick because they just gave Mike Sullivan a five-year deal. They are giving him a big A.A.V. I was listening to 32 thoughts on Monday. Sullivan said it is breaking the Mike Babcock a.E.V. that he got with Toronto, which was 6.25 million per year. It's probably close to 7 million if it's not 7 million on the dot. I think they will run the risk and give the Penguins the 2026 first round pick

Starting point is 00:07:51 and hope that they will be better next year so that that pick is, you know, somewhere in the 20s, somewhere in that range. But at least for number 11, they are still going to get a good player. Don't get me wrong. It didn't go the way we wanted it to go. Pat and I were ready to go live. on here at one or a 10 was called. We were talking about this. We were going to go live, have a beverage in our hands, and we were going to laugh for probably 30 minutes.

Starting point is 00:08:18 The thing was just won the lottery. Literally, we were going to do that. But is it a disaster? No, it's not. There are still going to be good prospects available to them, even though this draft is a crapshoot at number 11. Here's the thing. I said this last night, and I kind of hate doing this on social media because I love doing this show. I hate burning takes before we record, but I did say this last night. Yes, this sucks because you wanted a top 10 pick given the way this season had gone, given the way the last couple seasons have gone and where Kyle Dubus wants to take this organization over the next three to four years. Absolutely. But they still have 30 picks over the next three years. They still have a ton of cap space over the next three years. It's going to

Starting point is 00:09:12 fluctuate, at least the cap space will, because they're going to have to resign some people. They're going to have to make some signings, but they're still going to have a tremendous amount of cap space. They still have a boatload of draft capital. So at the end of the day, it's not so much what pick they get in the first round of the 2025 NHL draft. It's what they do with all the capital they have available to them over the next few years. I've brought this up on the show. This is actually kind of an advantageous time for the penguins as an organization because realistically, if the cap isn't going to jump as much as it's going to

Starting point is 00:09:57 and they didn't acquire all the picks that they've acquired, there were going to be some real dark days ahead because they were going to have to sell guys off for next to nothing because they were going to need draft picks. They were going to need cap space. They have all that now, and you don't really have to sell anyone off for pennies on the dollar. Now you can, like Kyle Dubas has done,

Starting point is 00:10:21 you can wait for the perfect deal for Ricard Raquel. You're not in a situation where, oh crap we have no draft picks we have no prospects granted they don't have a ton right now they don't have a ton that realistically are going to be better as a prospect like they still need like that really big high impact prospect like they got rock to mcgrorty he's going to play next year the league quite even like them harrison brunick but pat they still need like that big time impact player that can really and i mean really help right and in order to do that you would if they hadn't gotten to the point where they are now with a rising salary cap a bunch

Starting point is 00:10:55 of draft capital and yes, some B and C level prospects that they realistically could flip to other teams who might have some things that they want. They're in an advantageous situation. So moving down two slots in this year's draft isn't the end of the world. It's less than ideal. You would have loved a top 10 pick, but it's not going to suddenly derail what they're trying to do. It might push it back a year. It might have them have to make a couple moves here and there that you wouldn't have wanted to make to get other prospects, to get other draft capital. But now the onus is on what you do with this dearth of draft picks that you have in all this cap space over the next couple of years. So I get it. It's disappointing. They had, I think, less than 2% chance to move

Starting point is 00:11:48 down in the draft and they hit on that less than 2% but that's what a lottery is all about. crap happens man like i didn't mean to interrupt you again i think you were finishing up your sentence there but yeah crap happens man they got crappy luck when they were very close to getting the number one overall pick what else can you do except shrug your shoulders and hey i'll say this man they're probably not going to make the playoffs next year maybe he'll get the lottery luck next year and they'll take gavin mckenna hey i'll throw it out there hey gary betman's waiting for there to be a generational talent available to rig the draft for the Pittsburgh Penguins. So just keep that in mind, folks.

Starting point is 00:12:24 But that is going to do it for our opening segment of the Tuesday edition of Locked-on Penguins. When we come back, we're going to continue our season in review series. And hey, they moved down in the draft last night. So we might as well keep some of the bad vibes rolling and rip the Band-Aid off. We're going to talk about the season of Tristan Jari. but before we do that, a message from one of our sponsors, Bear Mattresses. An award-winning mattress can change your life. I speak from experience.

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Starting point is 00:14:11 And it is time to continue our season in review series for the podcast. and there are no two ways about it. We've got to start with the goaltender, Tristan Jari. It was another disappointing season for the Penguins goalie. He plays 36 games, starts 35 of them, puts together a record of 16, 12, and 6, a goals against average of 3.12, and a save percentage of 893. along with all of that, he gets waived and sent to Wilkes-Barre on two separate occasions this season.

Starting point is 00:14:52 And I really don't know where to go with Tristan Jari at this point. And I don't mean that in a what do they do with him discussion. I mean more in a where do you start with this discussion with Tristan Jari? because I said it at the end of the season. You shook your head at me and I understand it. And a lot of people didn't like what I had to say when I said, I have to at least give him credit for battling and sticking with it and at least not completely packing it in after getting the message from the organization

Starting point is 00:15:31 on two separate occasions that, hey, we're pretty much done with you. Because it would have been very easy for him to just say, screw you guys, you've given up on me, so I'm going to give up on you. But he battled and he put in a couple good performances. But you can't say that without also saying that it has been at this point, two to three seasons where he has just not been good enough. And I understand I'm going to connect to things here that it was probably time for the Pittsburgh Penguins to move on from Mike Sullivan.

Starting point is 00:16:09 as they did last week. But you can also make the case to quote the great Jeff Merrick. They might as well just change the name of hockey to goaltending because, sure, there have been mistakes, missteps, bad signings, bad trades, decisions, you name it. But since about 2020, Mike Sullivan has not had a goaltender. And culprit number one for that problem has been Tristan Jarre. Well, he's going to have one now in New York, obviously, with Igor Shastark and one of the best

Starting point is 00:16:42 goaltenders on the planet. But I would agree with you on that. The goaltending for the last several years of his tenure was not close to good enough. I mean, there were people calling for Tristan Jari to be done after the Islander series. And I think I wasn't there just yet. I was like, okay, let's give him one more shot. He was balancing back decently fine the next year. gets hurt, couldn't really play in the playoffs outside of game seven. But after that, he just turned into a completely different goal. He honestly went kind of low-key, went back to the way he played in that series against the Islanders after that season against the Rangers.

Starting point is 00:17:24 It hasn't been close to good enough. And he, there's too much term on his contract. He's making too much money. They need to find any and every way possible to get out of that deal this summer. If they don't, obviously they're going to give him starts for next season, I guess to try and maybe recoup that value a little bit before maybe moving on from him after next season. The thing with Jari was he was bad for so much of this season, Pat. He then comes back up, you know, March through April, the final basically month of the season.

Starting point is 00:18:00 You know, he's 907 in March, 898 in April. And you look at his last few starts, for example, you know, gets a shout out against the black Cox. He beats the devil's 9-203 against the devils. Like, okay, that's whatever. But like, you know, you look at his stats in March as well, 967, 946, 914. He had a 919 in there. He had a shutout in there, 9-03. A lot of really good starts in there. But again, I kept making the joke during the season. He turns into prime LeBron when the stakes are so low. But when you raise the stakes to where it's a mediocre to a flat-out, huge gain, he crumbles. He's done that constantly over his tenure here. And you can't trust him

Starting point is 00:18:45 at any big game situation. He's not going to be the starting goaltender when this team is a contender again. I think everyone knows that. Sure, the Penguins can maybe be like, oh, it could be one last ish effort to maybe get a new goalie coach in here to see if they can work with him. But I feel like he's been with the organization for so long at this point, man. You know what you have in him. like it's not in my opinion it's not going to change so i would just try any and everything possible to move on from him this summer we're doing our season review here obviously i give him an f for this season like it just was not good enough he was worse than i thought he was going to be this year which kind of says something yeah because i didn't think he was going to have

Starting point is 00:19:25 that good of the year this year anyway but he was again flat out terrible you look at some of the number number past minus 4.7 goals stayed above expected that's worse than alex deltivich was this year. And it's funny, look at the same percentage for both Ned and Jari this year. This is per money puck. 894 for Ned, 892 for Jari. So just again, brutal goal tending. And we know that they're probably not going to get in next year. But that said, you can't run this tandem back as your two goalies. I think Yow L. Blumquist will probably figure into that rotation next year. I think they're going to give him every opportunity to win one of those spots out of training camp. to me, I just don't understand why you would want to run that tandem back. The UFA options are really bad, but you can go into Puckpedia right now, man.

Starting point is 00:20:16 There's not much out there, especially after Freddie Anderson just signed another one-year deal with the hurricanes. But still, I don't think you can run that tandem back. But yeah, Jari gets a really low grade for me and rightfully so. I think, again, his time has run his course here. I think it's just better for both sides if they can find him a situation where he can go to a fresh team and maybe try to reinvent his game a little bit because I just don't think it's going to be happening here at this point.

Starting point is 00:20:43 I'm glad you brought up the UFA market this upcoming summer for goaltenders because I don't know the show that he was on for it. I saw the clip of it on TikTok. Our friend Josh Yo, he was on a podcast talking about this and he basically said that the summer that he signed his extension, Jari and his agent, for lack of a better term, please excuse me on this, had the penguins by the balls.

Starting point is 00:21:12 They basically were like, we don't want to give you five years. And Jari and his agent understood that they didn't really have any other options. It was this or nothing. And as much fun as it was the first season with Alex and the Delcovic stepping in and looking like he might be able to steal the job,

Starting point is 00:21:31 we saw what happened with him, what has always happened in his career, where after a, certain amount of time and a certain amount of workload, he starts to fall apart. So he's not going to be your starting goal tender. So Jari and his agent used the leverage correctly and ended up winning that battle. And Sullivan and Dubis essentially admitted that to Josh Yohei, where they were like, we didn't have a choice and we didn't want to give him five years,

Starting point is 00:21:56 but it was either we give him five years and we have him and hopefully he bounces back or we're in an even worse position where we're giving backups and one, B's starting goalie money and the results are even worse. And you got to remember at the time, the Penguins were a team that missed the playoffs by a single point. They weren't a team where they are now where if they were to do something like that now, nobody would shake their head at it because we get what's going on here. At the time,

Starting point is 00:22:25 they still considered themselves to be a competitive team. And that was the move that they kind of had to make and hold out hope that he would bounce back and return to form. because I'm with you on the other part of it as well. When he gave away the Islanders series, he had enough of a body of work behind him to go, all right, was it a bad moment and a blip on the radar?

Starting point is 00:22:47 Or can you give him a chance to rebound? And he doesn't get that chance in the last opportunity that the Penguins were in the playoffs because he gets hurt. But then the last couple of years kind of shows us the bounce back wasn't coming. Now, as for a letter grade, I'm not going to go F, but I'm going to go D minus because he kind of got like the last, like if we're treating this like a grade on a test in school, he somehow got like the last two questions on the test correct for his effort at the end of the year and saved it from being a failing grade. But still a D minus. That's not going to be enough to pass. But at the end of the day, one thing I do think that they can take some hope out of going to.

Starting point is 00:23:33 going through the next couple years is that next year, he's got, or coming up into next year, he's got three years left on this deal, 5.375 million. We know how risk averse general managers are. We remember not this past season, but the season before when there was talk about trading Ricard Raquel,

Starting point is 00:23:53 people were like, oh, he's got all that time left on his deal. And it was the same thing with Lars Eller, where, oh, he's got all this time left on his deal. We don't know if we can accept that. And then all of a sudden a year later, everybody's like, oh yeah, we'll definitely, we can definitely take that guy on. For sure, we'll take that guy on.

Starting point is 00:24:08 So next year, when he's only got two seasons left, you probably could talk a couple teams into taking a flyer on him, getting the change of scenery for him and all of that good stuff. So I do think if he can at least play to league average for a bit of a stretch next season, there might be some takers around the NHL who think, all right, fresh start. He's been an all-star, quote unquote, in the past. It clearly isn't working in Pittsburgh. He's only got two years left.

Starting point is 00:24:47 Let's see if we can maybe fix him. Sure. But again, to me, I just, I wouldn't even bother with that. I would try to, again, do everything to try and cut your losses at this point. And again, look at the UFA going market. Not many options out there. So, hey, maybe somehow, some way a GM comes calling and say, hey, we don't like our UFA options.

Starting point is 00:25:10 Can we maybe see about if a trade could work here? Again, very wishful thinking, of course, but a man can dream, right? It's the old Elliot Friedman. When other GMs see that you're drowning, they don't throw you a life vest. They throw you a boat anchor. And when it comes to Tristanjari, the penguins are absolutely drowning.

Starting point is 00:25:29 So that is going to do it for our second segment, the season in review of Tristan Jari. When we come back, two good friends will reunite overseas in what is a feel good story. And something that somehow the two of us missed yesterday. But hey, we can talk about it now. And we will do that when we come back right after this. But first, we've got to tell you about today's last sponsor. And that is wonderful pistachios. If you're looking for a snack that's both delicious and nutritious,

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Starting point is 00:26:24 They're a great on-the-go snack, whether I'm in the car, at my desk, or doing whatever I'm doing and need that quick pick-me-up, they're right there for me. But if you want that satisfying crunch of cracking open those pistachios, the classic in-shell option is always there for you. So get snacking and get cracking with the snack that packs a protein punch. Visit wonderful pistachios.com to learn more. All right, welcome back. It's the Tuesday edition of Locked on Packers. Penguins. This is our closing segment. I'm Patrick Damp alongside Hunter Hodes. And I was thinking about singing, but I ain't much of a singer anymore. I left that back in my high school musical days,

Starting point is 00:27:05 but reunited and it feels so good. Sydney Crosby and Mark Andre Flurry will reunite at the world championships for Team Canada. And it's not going to make me amend my take from yesterday about this being a whole dubus and Crosby riff and they don't like each other and Crosby's upset about Sullivan, but it is a feel good story with Mark Andre Fleury's NHL career finally coming to an end. I don't know why I said finally. He's a great dude. He had a great career, but it has come to an end. He is retiring and it'll be really cool to see two guys who came up together in the

Starting point is 00:27:47 Penguins organization grew from these incredibly. hyped, incredibly talented prospects into absolute superstars in the National Hockey League. Yeah, they'll get to play together one more time before Flurry is officially done playing for good. It's funny, he retired from the NHL. We think, oh, he's done playing hockey for good. He's like, you know what? No, I'm going to throw a curveball. I'm going to go to the World Championships and play for Team Canada one more time and also

Starting point is 00:28:16 play with my best friend. One more thing, he's going to take all of Crosby's time. and we don't get to hear about Nathan McKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche and all that stuff. I'm sure obviously Sid and McKinnon will hang out, but I had to make the joke that Fleury's going to be hogging up all of his time, and McKinn's going to be sitting there being like, what the heck, what about me?

Starting point is 00:28:36 But no, it's going to be great, man. I'm really happy that Florey is going to Team Canada to play with Sid. Obviously, so many great memories together from their time he's here in Pittsburgh. Sid has openly spoken about how great of a teammate and especially a person Mark Andre has been throughout his entire life. And again, it's been, it's always been so fun to see them always team up. And you see when Sid always talks about Florey, even after he left, his eyes just light up. Like, that's one of his best friends.

Starting point is 00:29:07 And it'll be really cool seeing them play together. One last time before Flurry is officially done with hockey. We know he's known with the NHL, Pat, that he'll be done with hockey for good, I think, after this. So what you're saying is the narrative coming out of the world championships will no longer be should Crosby force a trade to Colorado. But if you're retirement, should you call Kyle Dubus and see what you can offer to trade for Sidney Crosby? Because now he's going to play with his other best friend and Mark Andre Flurry.

Starting point is 00:29:39 It would be funny. Well, hey, okay, that's good. But the other question, Pat, we should throw in there. Is Cindy Crosby going to retire now that his best friend is retired? stay tuned for more. But yeah, at the end of the day, that is going to be so much fun to see because as competitive as a lot of these guys are. And obviously when the puck drops, they're going to turn into the professional competitors

Starting point is 00:30:02 that they always have been. But you know that this is going to be just an absolute blast for all of these guys involved. They're going to be reunited. They're going to have fun playing hockey together. So it'll be a real treat to watch. And it could be a very good swan song for Mark Andre Fleury, especially if he gets into a few games, has a couple of signature moments.

Starting point is 00:30:28 It'll be a really, really nice way to send off one of, if not the best goalie, maybe not the best, but one of the best goalies of the modern era of the NHL. But that is going to do it for our Tuesday edition of Locked-on Penguins. I will be back tomorrow with a new episode, hopefully with a special guest as Hunter is going to hit the road and go rock out to some Metallica, which I got to say, extremely jealous of. It's a band on my bucket list that I've never seen live. And I'm definitely running out of time for that.

Starting point is 00:31:02 Pat's kicking me off Wednesday show, guys. Just a lot you all to know that. Yeah. I like to, I want Hunter to go have fun. He's done so much for this show. We don't need them here all the time. Go enjoy life, brother. it is the off season, but that'll do it for this one.

Starting point is 00:31:16 I will be back tomorrow, hopefully with a special guest. Thank you, as always, for tuning in for Hunter Hodes. I'm Patrick Damp. Thank you once again. We will be back with a new episode on Wednesday.

Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Penguins don't get the lottery luck, drop two spots in the 2025 draft

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