Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Penguins set to play in Ottawa in the BIGGEST GAME of the year so far!

Starting point is 00:00:00 The Pittsburgh Penguins have a humongous game against the Ottawa senators in Ottawa on Thursday night, and Pat and I are going to get you all set for that game coming up right after this. You're Locked-on Penguins, your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello and welcome to the Thursday edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm one of your host, Hunter Hodes. You can follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes. joined by my co-host, Patrick Damp, you can follow him on all social media platforms at

Starting point is 00:00:40 Center for Wet. You can also follow the show's Twitter at L.O. underscore Penguins. And you can find us on Instagram at Locked-on underscore Penguins. Of course, thank you all so much for making this your first listen slash watch of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. Pat, I'm going to say this on Monday, but it applies here right now. This is the Penguins' biggest game in two years tonight against the Ottawa Senators with where both teams are in the standings with the way the Penguins have lost two in a row. This is a gigantic game for the Penguins as they try and stay in a playoff spot in the Metropolitan Division and they will go up against a team that they have really struggled

Starting point is 00:01:22 against as of late. They have lost nine of their last 11 games to the Ottawa Senators. They have also lost five in a row in Ottawa. They have not won in Ottawa since February. of 2022. Now, for those five losses have come in overtime. So they've had some chances to win since then. But Ottawa has also been a little bit of a house of horrors for the penguins as of late. It's not as much as Raleigh because that goes back to the 2018-19 season. But this is a place where the penguins have not been winning as of late. And this is also a team that has been giving them

Starting point is 00:01:55 fits for the last few seasons. And Ottawa, they are red hot coming into this game. They have won four in a row, six of their last seven games. They're in the final playoff spot right now. They rose from the abyss. They were towards the bottom of the Eastern Conference bat, but they were able to get some of their guys back, even though they're banged up defensively, but some of their forwards are able to come back.

Starting point is 00:02:17 Their goaltending was able to stabilize ever so slightly, and you combine that with their underlying numbers, which are really good. I'll get into those in a little bit. They've been able to get back into a playoff spot. This is a team that has played better than the record would indicate all season. this is going to be a really tough matchup for the penguins.

Starting point is 00:02:35 This is an Ottawa team that is one of the top defensive teams in the league. They are one of the best teams in terms of preventing scoring chances and high danger chances at five on five. They're also top five in the league and expected goal share and shot attempts. Just a really sound team overall. Now, the big area where they're weak tonight is on the back end. No Jake Sanderson, no Tomah Shabbat. Pat, the biggest key for me tonight with the penguins, trying to get after some of Ottawa's defensemen

Starting point is 00:03:06 because their best two puck movers are both out. Yeah, this is huge. They've got a lot, like you said, they've got a lot of injuries on the blue line. They've got, they're a team that's playing really well, but they're a team that continues to really, I don't want to say overperform because let's put it this way.

Starting point is 00:03:28 When we last met the Ottawa senators, I said this about them. This is a really good team that can't get a save. They play well defensively. They generate offense. They're able to score, but they were getting undone by goaltending. You're going to look at the senators right now today,

Starting point is 00:03:44 and you're going to see Linus Olmark with an 887 save percentage and James Reimer with an 884, and you're going to cringe. It used to be worse. So much like the team itself, they have pulled themselves up. So you add all that together. They're getting saves.

Starting point is 00:04:03 It is a very good Ottawa team. Now, right now, as we record this Thursday afternoon, according to Moneypuck, the Pittsburgh Penguins currently have a 72 or 74.2% chance of making the Stanley Cup playoffs. Here's how big tonight is. And this all has to do with regulation. Overtime doesn't move the needle all that much one way or the other.

Starting point is 00:04:28 But let's put it this way. The Penguins win in regulation tonight, their odds to make the playoffs go up to 84.6%. If they lose in regulation, fail to get a point, their odds to make the playoffs fall to 65.6. Hunter is not lying. It's something that we're going to say quite a bit over the next couple of weeks. But this is, for now, the biggest game of the year.

Starting point is 00:04:57 You cannot no show this one. Now, if you end up winning, going to overtime in this game, if you win an overtime, 82.9% that's pretty good. If you lose an OT, your odds actually go up a little bit to 75%. So let's put it this way. If you can get a regulation victory against the Ottawa senators tonight, you're not quite stamping your ticket to the Stanley Cup playoffs. but you are getting damn close to the ticket taker to make your way onto the train.

Starting point is 00:05:33 I'll also put it this way. Your next four games are against the senators, the stars, the islanders, which again, we're going to say this on Monday. That will be the biggest game of the year after this one. And then we'll probably say the same thing on Tuesday when they play the Red Wings, because the Red Wings are very much in the playoff race. They're on the outside looking at right now. They have gotten a bit healthier.

Starting point is 00:05:52 They got Andrew Kopp back. Dylan Larkin's back. We'll have to see if they can make a little bit of a run here. to end the season, because they've been a playoff spot for most of the time. But again, I digress. Over these next four games, you win three of those. Say you win tonight against Ottawa. Then you beat the Islanders and the Red Wings.

Starting point is 00:06:10 I don't know the full math for Money Puck Pat. Your playoff odds at that point are probably 85 plus percent, 90 plus percent, especially if you do win all those games in regulation. You're looking damn good going into April where your toughest. team left is Tampa Bay. And then after that, you finish the season against all non-playoff teams. So again, this stretch here, so, so critical over the next week for their playoff chances, really gets going tonight against Ottawa. And even from an Ottawa perspective, they beat the Penguins tonight. Their playoff odds go up to 80%. They lose, Pat. They go down to 59.9%. Again,

Starting point is 00:06:51 this is one of the biggest games of the season for any team. and the penguins. We're going to get into more keys to victory a bit later on in the show, but Pat took the words right out of my mouth. You cannot know show tonight. You cannot play the way you have played defensively in front of your goaltenders for the last week and change tonight. Everything has to be simple and clean for the Penguins tonight.

Starting point is 00:07:16 You look at some of the Ottawa forwards. They've had some really, and I mean really good seasons. Tim Stutzelah, 32 goals and 73 points in 71 games. Drake Batherson. has also been great with 27 goals and 61 points. Brady Cachuk, when he's been healthy, he's right out of point per game. Jake Sanderson, when he's been healthy, has been great, but he's not playing tonight. Claude Jureau, who has torched the Penguins at times during his career.

Starting point is 00:07:39 He has 12 goals and 44 points. Dylan Cousins is on pace to finish with over 30 plus goals. Again, Shane Pinto is one goal away from a 20-goal season. This is a team that is very potent up front. And when you combine that with the way that Linus Allmark has played against the Penguins, during his career. Here you go, guys. Linus Olmark is 8-0-0 in 8 games against the Penguins

Starting point is 00:08:02 with a 926 Sabres engine at 2.2A goals against Savage. They got to figure this guy out tonight. They do. That is going to be to me one of the biggest challenges that they have going into tonight. Because overall, I'll talk more specifics, more X's and O's, all of that in the second segment. this game tonight has to be almost an exorcism for the Pittsburgh Penguins

Starting point is 00:08:31 because you have struggled for quite a while at Canadian Tire Center in Ottawa. You've struggled against the Ottawa senators as a whole for the past couple of years. You just read off the stats. For some reason, you can't figure out Linus Olmark. So you know what? Tonight has to be an exorcism. You have got to figure all of that out. And it's going to take, really, this is going to sound crazy to say after the most recent game,

Starting point is 00:09:01 it's going to take a similar effort to what you had against Colorado because we said it. They didn't play horrible against Colorado. They fell asleep for two and a half minutes against Colorado. Otto was a good team. I like this team. They're on the come up. They're going to be good for quite some time. Colorado Avalanche, they are not.

Starting point is 00:09:22 So if you can get a similar effort and build on it, this is a winnable game against the team you can beat. I agree. And we're going to find out if this team gets two points in the standings coming up here in a few hours. But that's going to do it for this first segment. Coming up in the second segment, Pat and I are going to give some keys to victory, plus discuss Anthony Mantha being in the lineup, which is massive for this team. That's coming up right after this.

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Starting point is 00:10:26 You no longer just a spectator, play-by-play, you decide. Trade every play with Robin Hood, now available across the U.S., and download the Robin Hood app now to begin. All right, we're back here on the Thursday edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I am one of your host, Hunter Hodes, joined by my host, Patrick Camp and Pat. We got another injury scare on Wednesday when Penguins PR tweeted out that Anthony Mantha missed the morning skate with a lower body injury. It was another case where he finished the game.

Starting point is 00:10:57 Nobody knew what happened. And then he's just not on the ice, just our practice. It feels like we've seen this quite often with the Penguins this year. And honestly, going back for other years as well, where a player will finish a game, miss his practice, and then he's out for a little bit. But thankfully, Mantha traveled with the team, was on the ice for the morning skate and talked with the media after confirming that he will be in the lineup tonight. That is so huge for this team, considering how consistent he has been all season.

Starting point is 00:11:23 He's been one of their best goals scorers. I got a little bit nervous when I saw that Yonokopinin and Avery Hayes were both recalled. I thought that he wasn't going to be able to go. And honestly, I was thinking that someone else was maybe not going to be able to go either. But I think it was just for insurance purposes. But Manta said he's good to go. So that means he'll be on the second line tonight with Igor Chenekov and Tommy Novak. The rest of the lines figured to stay the same, same with the defensive pairings.

Starting point is 00:11:50 We've already given our thoughts on those. I don't think we really need to go into that too much. further, Stuart Skinner will start for the Penguins tonight. And I'll say this man, he plays well tonight. I give him the net on Saturday. I do too. It's, it's to the point now with the way that these two have played for the past couple of weeks, that the rotation has to stop.

Starting point is 00:12:13 And you got to ride the hot hand as long as it's hot. Not that, you know, I'm not hitting the panic button here. They're still very much in a playoff spot. They're in a tight race. but that's the point is that they are in a tight race. And with the way Skinner and Sheelovs have played over the past couple of weeks, you can't risk wanting them to work out of a funk. If Skinner has a tough outing tonight, Saturday you go back to Sheelobs.

Starting point is 00:12:40 If Sheelovs has a good outing, you keep playing them. If you don't, you switch. So it's time more so than ever for one of these two. And I know this contradicts something I said a couple weeks ago where maybe you just keep the rotation going into the playoffs. But now that the race is tightened, now that they're even points are even more precious to this point, you ride the goalie who's playing the best.

Starting point is 00:13:06 And if Skinner has a big performance tonight, which he needs to, you keep going to him. And then on top of that, both golies need a really good performance. They just haven't been that good for the last, you know, we can change two weeks overall. Honestly, ever since you said that, Pat, they've both gone downhill a little bit. But it continues the trend of the whole season where even back to when it was Tristan Jari,

Starting point is 00:13:29 the goaltending tandem just keeps mirroring one another. They get hot, one gets hot, the other gets hot. One goes cold, the other goes cold. One plays well, the other plays well. One gets a shut out, the other gets a shut out. Eventually, one of these guys has got to start pulling away or it's going to be a bit of trouble. Along with that, if there was ever a night for this team's power play. to get back on track.

Starting point is 00:13:54 You're going up against the 30th ranked PK in the league. And this is going to build off of something that I am entirely sure Hunter is going to say, it is time on that power play for the captain to take charge. Yes, Eric Carlson has been great. He has been doing incredible things, but it is time for 87 to put on his laser eyes and be the dominant force that he can be when this team needs a spark. I am in total agreement with you on that.

Starting point is 00:14:26 And he's been fine since coming back. He's been producing. But we haven't seen superhero Sid yet. And I think it's got to start tonight when, again, this is their biggest game of the season so far. And I just got to see it, man. Like, whether it's at five on five or on the power play, I want Sid to hopefully be the best player on the ice night.

Starting point is 00:14:49 There's still no Evgeny Malkin. He didn't travel with the team to Ottawa. we have to see if he can return for Saturday, maybe next week. Still day to day with that injury, still no Blake LaZotte on that in a second because I'm going to bring up a penalty kill. So without Gino, especially on the power play and at five on five, I want to see Sid put his superhero Cape on tonight and say, hey, I got you guys.

Starting point is 00:15:11 Follow my lead. We're not losing this game. And I wanted to see a really nice vintage said game. I know I probably sound like a repeat weirdo because we keep saying this on the pod, all week, but until it happens, I feel like I'm just going to keep repeating myself about it. And, you know, one quick note on She Loves again, had that really nice start in Denver last week. But other than that, I just think his game has kind of gone down a little bit. You saw it in that start against Colorado earlier this week.

Starting point is 00:15:39 And then with Skinner, he really also, Pat, needs a win in the worst way. So again, he wins tonight, plays well. I give him the net on Saturday. And I don't really look back unless he struggles in that. game against Dallas and then okay you go back to she loves for the back to back and you know both goalies are going to get a star on the back to back anyway but again he plays well tonight I give him the net on Saturday if not you guys I guess you can continue the rotation until someone gives you a reason to really move forward for the final few weeks of the season I'm glad

Starting point is 00:16:09 you brought the power play this has got to be a really nice get right game when you're going up against one of the three worst penalty kills in the league I have not liked the power play a bit as of late it's just been too stagnant the zone entries haven't been there there's not and not enough puck movement overall. Eric Carlson can really only do so much at the point. Even Sid in his spot hasn't been doing enough on the power play. I want to see that change. Also, if you want to put Igor Chinochinov on the top powerplay,

Starting point is 00:16:36 I wouldn't say no to that, considering how great his release is, how much of a shoot-first mentality he has, why not to that? So maybe if that unit, God forbid it does struggle, at least one time tonight, you make an adjustment, put Igor Chinov off up there for second power play if you get it and as for the penalty kill pat i want to see your response here last couple

Starting point is 00:16:57 of games it's been very unorthodox i do think part of that is because of no blake lazotte though lazott's probably not going to return until the end of the regular season slash start of the playoffs we'll have to see that's the way the timeline is shaping up right now you got to find ways to simplify on that unit i get it man he is the workhorse of that unit he is the heartbeat of that unit but there have been too many nonchalant clearing attempts, too many players just kind of sitting around, not doing too much, that unit has got to get back to basics. The Ottawa power play, it's a bit above league average, 12th overall, but I got to see a response from that unit here.

Starting point is 00:17:39 Yeah, you really do. It's got to be a little bit of pride here. You've been getting your lunch fed to you the last few games. You really haven't been the damn near elite unit you have been for most of the year. So have some pride in it. Get back to that. And you brought up Chinikov. I think that needs to just be a thing, period. The shot he has the velocity behind it, the way he finds open space, he's earned it.

Starting point is 00:18:05 It's time to put him on the top power play unit because he is rapidly becoming one of your best goal scores. And what is the power play other than a goal scoring competition? So put him on top of that. And really, at the end of the day, this is a lot of the day. this is the last thing I'm going to add. And I don't know if the penguins, anyone of the penguins listens to this. If they do, I hope we have some influence. But this has got to be the borderline last chance saloon for Vela Koivenin.

Starting point is 00:18:39 I like the kid. We talked about it this week. There's going to come a time where he's going to get better because development is not linear. It takes several different paths. It goes down a lot of side streets. It's rarely straightforward. But with where this team is and what they need to do, I like Coivinen.

Starting point is 00:19:00 I can't wait to see what he does in the future. But we are in the here and now. And if he does not perform in this game or the next one, it really, really needs to be Rutger-Magrory time. Yeah, I was going to add that if you weren't going to say that at the end of your speech there, because I think McGority, he has played very well in Wilkesbury as of late you've seen him in late game situations before you know going back to the end of last season when he made his NHL well not that was not his

Starting point is 00:19:29 initial debut but he got his second stint in the NHL I should say when he looked like a completely different player earlier this season when it looked like he was still starting to figure it out a little bit before he got sent back to Wilkesbury you know if coiffin doesn't do it tonight I would call rucker up for Saturday's game on Friday I would have him at practice on Friday because they are scheduled to practice. They're going to fly home after this game. They'll get in early morning hours. They'll practice on Friday.

Starting point is 00:19:56 I would have Rucker there right away if Villey does not play in this one. I just think with where the team is right now, his game, I think meshes a little bit better. Now, it could be proven wrong, and Villey has a really good game tonight for the Penguins. I would love for that to happen. But if he doesn't, I want Rucker here right away on Friday for practice and then sticking around at least for Saturday's game against the stars and then potentially that huge back-to-back next week against the Islanders and the Red Wings. But that's going to do it for this second segment.

Starting point is 00:20:26 Coming up to end the show, I'm going to give another key or two for tonight's game, and we're going to discuss, A, we love this time of year. So we're going to get into that right after this. But before we get to that, we have to tell you all about our final sponsor, which is game time. There's nothing like being in an NBA arena, the crowd, the energy, the moment. Getting tickets, though, that part hasn't always been. so simple. And that's why game time has become the go-to app for scoring tickets fast. Without the hassle, it puts the advantage back where it belongs with the fans.

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Starting point is 00:21:43 That's code locked on for $20 off. Download the GameTime app today. And remember, it's gametime.co. game time.com. All right, we're back here on the Thursday edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm one of your host, Hunter Hodes, joined by my co-ist Patrick Damp and Pat. I hinted at it earlier in the show, but I want to see a very simple clean game from the Penguins tonight. I want to see them defend their own zone, like their lives depend on it. I want to see them play the style of hockey that was working beautifully in January,

Starting point is 00:22:20 you know, summer of February. I know the Olympic break. was for most of that month, but they were still carrying that play over into those games that they played that month. But for a lot of January where this team was just playing, you know, simple, really nice hockey in their own zone where they weren't trying to do too much. They were breaking the puck out, a lot cleaner. They got it to get back to basics, because the way they've been playing in their own zone as of late is simply not good enough. They're giving up way too many high danger chances. They're giving up way too many goals,

Starting point is 00:22:53 especially, you have that stat on the Wednesday show, Pat, where they're basically just giving up over four goals per game as of late. So I want to see a much better performance in front of the goaltender. Obviously, yes, the goalies need to make more saves. We have talked about that. But the other biggest issue, the defenseman and the forwards, everyone in front of the goalie needs to be a lot better and more responsible in their own zone. That is a huge key for me tonight against the Ottawa team.

Starting point is 00:23:20 That four checks hard. And they get a lot of great chance. every single game. They do. And here's the other thing. I try my hardest not to pull out this key to victory because it builds off of what you're saying about it being simple. You haven't been able to solve Olmark in a long time. Yeah. Make them work. I know that it isn't really the Penguins M.O. But sometimes when you need a win, you have got to go so simplistic that it helps you out and just helps you get back on solid footing. And that means if you've got to look at the net, just put it there.

Starting point is 00:23:57 And yes, it's the NHL. When NHL goaltenders see the puck, more than likely that they're going to stop it. But you want to make him work. You want to make him see 30, 35, 40 shots that by the third period, he's tired. You can get in front of him. You can make him move. You can make him have to make more difficult saves the deeper the game goes. And that is often a really easy way or not, I shouldn't say easy, but simple way to beat a goalie you haven't been able to solve is just hire them out.

Starting point is 00:24:33 Make them stop. Make them make stops. Even if it's the most low percentage, low danger chance, but he's got to kick a pat out. He's got to move the blocker. He's got to stop the puck. He's got to bend over and cover it. He's got to make a glove save. the more and more he has to do it, the more you start chipping away,

Starting point is 00:24:54 the more some of these opportunities start to come about. Yeah, every time you have the puck in the offensive zone, fire it to the net, tire him out, make him make saves, get the traffic in front of them, make him go side to side. This could be a game, especially for Justin Brazil, with how good he has been around the net for most of this season. Anthony Mantha, I mean, he has very soft hands around the net front. We've seen that numerous times this season.

Starting point is 00:25:18 Big Body can take away the vision of, Linus O'Mark, this could be a game for both of those players, I should say. Maybe someone like Noel Chari as well. He scored some greasy goals around the net front this year as well. Maybe this could be a big game for him. So, again, taking away his vision, making him go side to side, you know, crashing the net, rebound opportunities, all that good stuff for beating Linus O'Mart tonight. And last but not least, I will say this.

Starting point is 00:25:44 Outside of this game, there's a couple of really big games tonight that also will affect the standings. the Blue Jackets, they're also in action once again. They're up in Montreal playing the Canadians. Obviously, you want to root for the Canadians to win that game. You also have the stars before they come here to Pittsburgh on Saturday. They will face the Islanders up on Long Island. Obviously, you want to root for Dallas there.

Starting point is 00:26:04 This is a huge game. Not even a huge game, Pat. This is a huge night, I should say, for the race. It's not just the Penguins that have a tough game tonight. Islanders are playing one of the top teams in the league, and the Blue Jackets are playing a Canadian team that I still think is going to find their way into the playoffs. I still think they're going to get a top three spot in the Atlantic fight.

Starting point is 00:26:23 I guess right now it's probably going to be third. I don't think they're catching Buffalo. And I don't think they're going to get second in the division either, at least my opinion. But this is a huge night for the overall race, my friend. It's gigantic. And there's, again, it's very similar to earlier this week where if the penguins get like, if the penguins stumble again, there's a very real world where they can get help. tonight by a couple of teams losing a couple of teams winning but again we got to come back to

Starting point is 00:26:54 you got to take care of your own we don't want this team to limp into the playoffs now we don't want this team to keep getting lucky and keep scoreboard watching and hoping this team that team whoever ends up helping them get in just handle your business get your wins and let it shake out that way rather than praying and hoping that another team does the job for you. Can we also talk about this, what is really funny? The draft this summer is going to be incredibly funny once we get to the playoffs, because if you look at the standings right now, when you go to the entire league, it's a little ridiculous how bad the West is. It's disgusting. you go to 16th and down Utah's 16th in the league points percentage-wise.

Starting point is 00:27:47 Edmonton is 18th, Vegas is 19th, Nashville is 20th, L.A. is 23rd, the Cracken or 25th, Winnipeg's 26th, San Jose 27, St. Louis 28, Calgary 29, Chicago 30, and Vancouver 32. There are legitimate playoff teams that are out of the top 16 by point percentage. like it's genuinely crazy to me and it's going to be funny because obviously Vancouver and the Rangers are the two teams right now with the best odds to win the top pick but there's a chance that a team in the West that just barely misses the postseason could end up with Kevin McKenna I mean hell we saw the Islanders really make the jump last year to get Matthew Schaefer the Penguins were literally one lottery ball away

Starting point is 00:28:38 from getting Schaefer in that draft too. I'll still say it to this day. They are probably one ball away from getting Schaefer and Kendall in the same draft. Just want to put that out there to end the show. That would have been absolutely ridiculous. But this is literally like a turtle race in the Western Conference. The Predators might make the playoffs, even though they didn't really do much of anything at the deadline in terms of buying.

Starting point is 00:29:02 We've seen them not be very good this year. But that just goes to show how bad the West is. But hey, this is what you're made of this time of year. I love these types of games. Let's see if the penguins can get to very crucial points in this and next tonight. Who is going to answer the call? We're going to find out in a few hours. But that's going to do it for this one.

Starting point is 00:29:25 Thank you all so much to take the time to listen to slash watch this one. Pat and I will be back with a Friday episode recapping this game against the senators and getting you all set for Saturday Showdown at home against the day. Dallas Stars and it's Friday. You know that means fan take Friday is going to make a return. We'll have to see if you all are positive for this one or a bit more negative. We just got to see what happens obviously tonight. But again, that's going to do it for the Thursday edition of the show.

Starting point is 00:29:53 Thank you so much for tuning in. We appreciate it. Pat and I will be back on Friday.

Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Penguins set to play in Ottawa in the BIGGEST GAME of the year so far!

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