Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Penguins will need more consistency from Justin Brazeau

Starting point is 00:00:00 Justin Brzoe exceeded expectations for the Penguins this year, and Pat and I are going to do his season review coming up right after this. You're Locked-on Penguins, your daily podcast on the Pittsburgh Penguins, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello and welcome back to the Wednesday edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm one of your host, Hunter Hodes. You can follow me on Twitter at Hunter Hodes, joined by my host, Patrick Damp, You can follow him on all social media platforms at Send him for Wet.

Starting point is 00:00:39 You can also follow the show's Twitter at L.O underscore Penguins. And you can find us on Instagram at Lockdown underscore Penguins. And of course, thank you all so much for making this your first listen slash watch of the day. We are free and available on all platforms. Wilkesbury, they're kicking off the Eastern Conference final against the Toronto Marley's tonight in Wilkesbury. And then, oh yeah, the Whaling Nailers are coming back home to West Banko Arena in Wheeling as they try to get back. in this series against the Florida Everblades, game three tonight in West Virginia.

Starting point is 00:01:09 And then Sid and Minnie Sid, aka Macklin Celebrini, are just putting on a show at the World Championships. We're going to end the show by talking about that. But first off, Pat, we're continuing our season in review series. This time with Justin Brazo, he was signed to a pretty cheap deal going into this season,

Starting point is 00:01:28 and then he came out like a house on fire in October. Remember, Pat, we were talking about him potentially winning the Rocket, Rashard trophy. Those are some of the takes out there. Obviously, we were all just messing around, but he was shooting 27.3% in the month of October. He literally could not miss six goals and 12 points in that first month of the season, scored two great goals against the Rangers. Hell, he had three goals in the first two games of the season, scored a goal against the Ducks, scored a goal against the Canucks, scored a big goal against Philadelphia, even though the Penguins

Starting point is 00:02:01 lost that game. Still, he was everywhere in the first month. month misses all of November, comes back, still like a house on fire in December, six goals and eight points, shoots 30% in the month of December. Pat, he scored 12 goals in the first half of the regular season. Look like he was going to finish the season with over 20 goals. And then you saw some inconsistency come into his game. He still finished this year with 17 goals and 34 points. Those are both career highs for him. But he only had five goals in the second half of the regular season. For me, I'm still going to get him a solid B.

Starting point is 00:02:39 I think if I were going to get him a C, it would be like he just fully fell flat in the second half of the season. Now, was he as good in the second half as he was in the first half? No, but that's kind of what happens with most step players. They're going to have months where they're lighting the league on fire, and there's going to be months where you don't notice them as much just because they are streaky scores for reason. With that, I am going to still give him a B. Was really solid on the third line. I liked his spots on the second line at

Starting point is 00:03:09 time as well when you go back to looking at the Manta Brazo-Malkin line, but I still liked his commission on the third line with Ben Kendall and Anthony Manta. And I think overall, I would give him a solid B for this year. And I'm excited to see what he will do going in the next season. I am going to give him a C simply because five goals in the back half of the season was not great. In no world did I expect him to keep up his pace from the start of the season. That would have just been wholly unrealistic to expect of him. But there was just such a drop off for me in the second half of the season.

Starting point is 00:03:49 And I know that some of that had to do with line shuffling, some of that had to do with injury. but it just felt like there were too many games where he wasn't noticeable, where he was just kind of there. And this kind of builds into what I want to say about him moving forward into next season, should they keep him for the majority of the year and not flip him, is he needs to have a consistent line. Because if you look into the data, if you look into the data,

Starting point is 00:04:24 you look at his numbers. He's the kind of player who once you get to the offensive zone, he does drive offense. He is very effective in the offensive zone. He uses his size and his strength very much to his advantage, whether it's to get around defensemen or to win battles in front of the net as a screen for tips and deflections and rebounds. But the issue is getting there.

Starting point is 00:04:50 The issue is getting out of the defensive zone through the neutral zone and into the offensive zone. So whether it's Ben Kindle or somebody else, if you find him a consistent center who has good chemistry with him, he will be a very effective bottom six player on the third line specifically that is going to be able to drive offense and produce. So that is the challenge for Kyle Dubus and the coaching staff is finding him some consistency because it is all there. and we have said this about Brzo's game since he signed with the Penguins. He's the kind of player at every professional level where his first couple of years are pretty pedestrian. And then he figures it out.

Starting point is 00:05:36 And then he starts to become a productive player, whether it's top of the statistics or if he's just a good depth contributor. So looking at his season as a whole, starts off hot, plays really well. and then injuries and some inconsistencies start to play a game. He only ends up playing. I think it was one game in the playoffs. So for Justin Brzoe in the organization, if they can find him consistency on the third line, I think they've got something here because he's only 28.

Starting point is 00:06:11 He won't be 29 until about the midway point of next year. There are the makings of a productive player moving forward here. They just have to find him the right center. And then, yeah, he's got to figure it out a little bit himself. He's got to find a way to produce away from just being the big guy in the offensive zone. Well, I do think they probably still have the center for him, and that is Ben Kindle, because I still see him as the third line center going into next season, just in general. The trick will be who is going to also compliment that line, because I like the chemistry that

Starting point is 00:06:45 Brazil and Kendall had. And I especially like the chemistry that Brazil and man, man, that I thought those two read one another really well, but as you all know, I think it's pretty unlikely that Manta is going to be coming back for next season. I think he's going to cash in on a deal from a different team once free agency opens in a little over a month now. So is that other winger, Elmer Slerblum, for example? Is it another young player coming up from Wilkesbury?

Starting point is 00:07:10 Is it someone else that you're bringing in via free agency, whether it's a cheap depth deal or whether you're trading for someone that you're going to put on the third line? There's plenty of options for that. I think at the very least, they probably have the center that can work with him, and that has Ben Kindle. And you get Kindle a full NHL offseason training routine. You and I've talked about it. We think he's going to be even better next year.

Starting point is 00:07:33 So I do think if you can get more consistency from Brazil, and you also get him to the net more because you saw it during the first half of the season, he has some really soft hands in front of the net. Hell Pat, you saw it in the first game against the Rangers, that first goal. Just a really, really nice move. going forehand, backhand, past Igor Shasturkin. You saw something similar in the second game against the Islanders, that big goal in the stages of the third period where he just had a really nice move

Starting point is 00:08:01 in front of the net to beat Ilya Sorokin, excuse me, going to his backhand. So if you can get him there on a more consistent basis, I think he can do more damage there. And I think as for why he didn't play much in the playoffs, I think it's mainly because Elmer Soderblom was just playing so well to end the season that you really had no choice but to keep him, in and Brazo was probably going to be the odd man out just because he was struggling in the month of April.

Starting point is 00:08:26 He was struggling in the second half of the season in general. So it felt like that he was going to be that odd man out. I'm just not really sure what other 40 you were going to take out there for Soder Blom. But I still see Brazo as someone who was going to play in a lot of games for next year. And if he just honestly adds a little bit more consistency to his game, there is no reason that he potentially can't score 20 goals next year. That may sound nuts to people, but hey, he had 17 this year, and he wasn't that good in the second half of the season.

Starting point is 00:08:57 If he's even average in the second half, I think he easily gets over 20 goals. But that first half specifically, that's mainly why I'm going to give him a B for this year. You look at some of his underlines, about 730 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time. When he was on the ice, the Penguins had a plus-8 goal differential. 51.7% of the expected goal share, 52% of the high-danger chance. for roughly right around 50% of the scoring chances. It's only minus five when it comes scoring chances. So right around there, most of his underlings were totally fine for this year.

Starting point is 00:09:32 So those are my main thoughts on Brazil, and I'm excited to see what he can do going into year two of this contract. I am too. I don't want anybody to think that I'm out on Justin Brazil. I still think there's a very useful player in here. If he can, like you said, find consistency. if he can hit the 30, 35 point mark as a bottom six winger. You've got yourself a productive player.

Starting point is 00:09:58 And there's no real bad option here for the organization with Justin Brazo, assuming he finds that consistency, because you can go one of two paths with him. You have them on a cheap, affordable deal. If he's performing really well, you can use him to upgrade your NHL roster via trade or find yourself a valuable draft pick, come the trade deadline, or if he continues to show growth, you can extend him

Starting point is 00:10:25 and keep him in the organization for the medium term. Because, again, he's only in his late 20s, and we know that's the kind of player that Kyle Dubas kind of has his eyes on for those roles. He's not looking to put those young, young players in bottom six roles. He's going to look for those late 20s, early 30s guys to fill out the world. the depth of the roster while looking for those future stars in their early 20s to fill out the top of the roster. So he's in a good spot. I just want to see him find that consistency

Starting point is 00:11:00 going into next year and become more of a productive piece on this roster. That's fair. And when it comes to an extension, if that were to ever happen, it would still probably be very short term a year or two, something like that. I don't think they're going to give out a lot of terms to someone like Brazil. But also, Pat, you kind of hinted at say they're potentially out of the playoff picture next trade deadline you can definitely cash in get something for him since he will be a pending ufa at that point but again time will tell where the penguins are when it comes to next season where they are around the 2027 trade deadline all that good stuff but that's going to do it for our opening segment coming up in the second segment

Starting point is 00:11:39 wilkesbury they're starting game one of the east final tonight against toronto and oh yeah wailing they're coming back for game three against the everblades and the ECHL Eastern Conference Final. That's all coming up right after this. But before we get to that, we have one sponsor to tell you all about, which is Kalshi. The hunt for the Stanley Cup is on, and now you can trade every game on Kalshi. On Kalshi, you can trade every single playoff game, every series, the conference finals, and the Stanley Cup final.

Starting point is 00:12:08 Tonight, we have game four of the Eastern Conference Final between Carolina and Montreal. Carolina, their odds are about 57% for Montreal. It's out 43% and the payout would be $176. dollars on Cali, you're trading against peers in a live market, meaning there's no house. and as probability changes, you can buy in and out of your position for limited time, dial the Cali app and use code locked on to get $10 when you trade 10. That's Calci trade on anything. All right, we're back here on the Wednesday edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast.

Starting point is 00:12:42 I'm one of your host, Hunter Hodes, joined by my host, Patrick Gamp and Pat. Game one of the Eastern Conference final between Wilkesbury and Toronto is tonight the Caldubis Revenge series, if you want to kind of call it that. But I feel like the main revenge series would obviously be Pittsburgh and Toronto in the NHL playing in the Stanley Cup playoffs. But hey, we'll still take a mini version when we can get it. But I'm excited. I'm excited to watch this one.

Starting point is 00:13:07 Sergei Muroshov has obviously been fantastic in these playoffs. Avery Hayes and Roker McGority, their chemistry has been great. Bill Zonan is just everywhere. Like, it's his role. We're just living in it right now. Atlee Calvert has been great. I can't say enough about the way Harrison Brumick has played in the playoffs. We did get an update pad on Owen Pickering.

Starting point is 00:13:26 Sounds like he is going to be out to start this series, according to Wilkesbury head coach Kirk McDonald. So that obviously stinks. I know some people were kind of speculating about, oh, like, was he a healthy scratch at the end of the series against Springfield? Nope, he is banged up. But hopefully they can get him back at some point this series. But I'm excited, man.

Starting point is 00:13:46 I've been really stoked to see how this team does in high-stakes games. they have proven themselves very well. And now they're going to have to do it again in some more really high stakes games with a birth in the Calder Cup final on the line. This is what it's all about for these prospects right now. The message has very clearly been received by the players on Wilkes-Bair because Dubus more or less, not even more or less, explicitly said that the performance in the Calder Cup playoffs are going to be a big

Starting point is 00:14:19 determining factor on who has inside shots and making the NHL roster out of training camp next year. So you see a lot of these guys on Wilkes-Barre raising their game, showing up in big moments, and taking this team on a deep run. And that has to continue in the Eastern Conference final because this is a similar matchup to what they just had in Springfield in the sense that Toronto is a better team than Springfield. They have more talent. They've got a goaltender who is red hot right now in Act the Amov. So at the same time, the similarity is this is a Toronto team that's riding a lot of momentum. They are on a heater. They're playing really well in the Calder Cup playoffs. So yeah,

Starting point is 00:15:06 it was funny. Like I was listening to 32 thoughts this morning and Elliot even straight out came out and said that, yeah, there are people around the league who really didn't expect the Marley's to be here. So kind of similar to Springfield where obviously no one expected Springfield to get as far as they did, considering the regular season they had. So it's definitely a tougher matchup than Springfield, even though Springfield pushed Wilkesbury to the limit. But I do think Pat Wilkesbury should be the favorite in this series. They should be because when you stack up the rosters side by side,

Starting point is 00:15:34 it's very much advantage Wilkes-Bair. They have a deeper roster. They've got more top-end talent. But again, we just saw it in the West Final, excuse me, in the Stanley Cup playoffs. There are teams that get hot. There are teams that just find a wave and they ride it as far as they can go. Vegas just did that against the best team in the league in Colorado.

Starting point is 00:15:59 You look at this East Final in the HL. Wilkes-Barre is arguably one of the best teams, if not the best team in the HL. Toronto, not supposed to be here. They had a middling season. Their goal differential was quite literally plus one in the regular season. But here they are in the East Final. They're playing well in the Calder Cup playoffs. They're riding the momentum.

Starting point is 00:16:23 Actiyamov has been great in net for them. A couple of their other prospects like Easton Cowan have been really good in this postseason. So for the Penguins going into this one, you've got to lean on your depth. You have got to show that you have the deeper roster. You have to keep getting contributions up and down the lineup. And oh, yeah, Sergey Mureshov has to continue. to be an absolute animal for them to move on. He has shut the door on everybody he has faced in these playoffs for the most part.

Starting point is 00:16:58 You do that against Toronto's top line and their top pairing. You give yourself as good a shot as anybody to move on to the Calder Cup final. I'm with you. And you mentioned the Marley's goaltender, Freeman also talked about him on the pod today, how least the organization is really excited about him. This should be a really fun going match. We've talked about what Sergei Maras Chavez done. His goals against average is below 2, has a 943 save percentage.

Starting point is 00:17:24 He's been unbelievable. Well, the Marley's goaltender pat, 7 and 4, 2.18 GAA, a 922 save percentage in the playoffs so far. That's going to be a really fun matchup to watch. So honestly, in some way, both goaltenders are the X factors for both teams, but game one gets underway tonight in Wilkesbury, 7.05. start. Meanwhile, Pat, willing, they will come home for game three tonight. They lost both games down in Florida to two really close games, but as you and I talk about to start the week, they just couldn't get any offense and they simply need to start getting some scoring. I know. Sounds very cliche. Put the puck in the back of the net. Well, it's true. They barely scored in

Starting point is 00:18:08 those first two games and they had a whole bunch of power play opportunities. Pat, if they get those tonight, they can't put those to waste because Taylor Gordier, he is giving them great goaltending. they just need, he, excuse me, he just needs help. That's the rub is if Florida continues to take penalties, you've got to make them pay. They gave the nailers so many opportunities in those first two games and they just could not capitalize. Now, again, Florida's goaltender,

Starting point is 00:18:35 he is historically one of the best goaltenders in the ECHL. So he does deserve credit for shutting the door because he has been really good. but at the same time, when you get to this point in the postseason, everything is on a razor's edge. Very few teams make it this deep without being good or in the most part great. So for the nailers, you're at this part of the season, you're back home. You know what the blueprint is to beat this Florida team. And they have shown you they are beatable.

Starting point is 00:19:11 It's not like the nailers went down to Florida and got their lunch fed to them. They played two very tight, very close games. They just did not take advantage of the opportunities that they were afforded. So with home ice advantage for hopefully three straight, you take advantage of those if Florida continues to parade to the penalty box. You hope that Taylor Gaudier continues to play extremely well. And you should be able to scratch out a couple of wins here at West Banko Arena. So really looking forward to see what the nailers do tonight.

Starting point is 00:19:44 Really looking forward to this Toronto Wilkes-Barre series because this is a lot of good hockey in the minor leagues. And if you've got the ability to watch them, highly recommend you do it because they are not going to disappoint. I agree. And again, I'll keep saying it. It is really good for your organization that your affiliates are going deep in their respective playoffs, getting those high-stakes games for your younger players, getting those experiences for them because it's only going to help them as they continue to develop into hopefully NHL players.

Starting point is 00:20:20 Obviously, not all of them, Pat, are going to pan out. But the ones that you're really excited about, this is also really only going to help them moving forward. But that's going to do it for the second segment. Coming up in the final segment, Sydney Crosby and Macklin Celebrini just lit it up once again for Team Canada at the Worlds on Tuesday. and we are going to discuss that coming up right after this. But before we get to that, we have to tell you all about one more sponsor, which is five-hour energy fruity rainbow. If you got a sweet tooth like I do,

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Starting point is 00:21:28 energy.com or on Amazon. All right, we're back here on the Wednesday edition of the Locked-on Penguins podcast. I'm one of your hosts on Trujones, joined by my co-host Patrick Amp. And Pat, we got Cindy Crosby and many Sydney Crosby just going off at the World Championships. The plays that these two were making during Canada's game on Tuesday were just a sight to behold. Sid knows exactly where McLean is going to be every time they're on the ice together. You can say the same thing for Macklin knows exactly where Sid is going to be whenever they're on the ice. I also want to shout out Parker Watherspoon, had a really nice assist on the goal that made at three to two. He's had a really underrated tournament overall. I think he's played very well for

Starting point is 00:22:17 team Canada. But Pat, sit and celebrini are just such a treat to watch. It's, it's pretty impressive to see the way Macklin Celebrini plays. I think a lot of people didn't quite understand the comparison between Celebrini and Crosby. They just looked at the numbers and went, oh, you guys are comparing these two because they had great sophomore seasons in the NHL and that was the end of it. But you watch the way Celebrini plays, it is extremely based on the way he watched Sidney Crosby play growing up. He models his game after Sidney Crosby in the sense that he has all this talent. He has incredible vision. He can do things with the puck.

Starting point is 00:23:11 few can. But so much of his game is predicated on strength and basically being a grinder. He can pick your pocket in the corner, but he can also put you through the boards. And that was Crosby's game early on in his career. He was great in the corners. He was great on the wall. He won puck battles, whether it was through physicality, whether it was through just being slick and smarter than other players. And Cellebrini has that in his game as well. And the other thing that stood out to me is that for this kid being as young as he is, he is much like Sid was in the day, wise beyond his years. You read the piece in the athletic today about the comparisons between Celebrini and Crosby.

Starting point is 00:23:58 And Cellebrini basically comes out and says, I went to the world championships because we lost in them last year. We only got silver at the Olympics. So I thought it was important to get hockey Canada back on track by winning something starting with the world championships. And him being that age and being that mature, that is Crosby part two right there. Yeah, it sure is. And you go back to the two plays that they were just so great at on Tuesday, such a high-end

Starting point is 00:24:29 pass from Crosby for Celebrini's first goal. And then the one that tied it, Celebrini right in front of the net, Sid sees him pretty easily and then fires a beautiful cross ice pass that only really he could do it feels like and it really is so awesome to watch you see them on the bench they're going over all the plays on their little iPad they're always talking to each other it really is cool pat to see sid kind of takes celebrini under his wing a little bit we already know that salbrini is one of the best players in the league and i think there's going to be a time when he is the undisputed best player in the league, especially when you see the way that he keeps developing in San Jose.

Starting point is 00:25:09 But it's been cool to kind of see Sid just, you know, be also a mentor to him at the World Championships while also just playing on the same line, setting him up for goals. Crosby has nine assists in seven games in the World Championship so far. So all that's been great. I mentioned Parker Waderspoon. He has a goal in four points in seven games. That assist that he had on the Tavaro's goal that made it three, two, just a really, Nice pass finding Tavaris there.

Starting point is 00:25:36 As I said, he's been really strong in this tournament. And we talked about it on Tuesday, Canada, USA on Thursday. I personally expect Canada to win that game. When you look at the rosters that these two teams have, maybe the U.S. pushes them. But I would expect Canada to win this game, and I still expect Canada to win this tournament. Overall, it's been fun to watch.

Starting point is 00:25:56 But do you have anything else to add about Sid and Celebrini or anything else about the World Championships before we call it quits here? I wanted to kind of build off what you just said about, Wetherspoon because this has been really the theme of Watherspoon for the last year. We saw his signing in Pittsburgh and thought, okay, depth defenseman, he'll be a bottom pair guy, maybe some trade bait at the deadline if he performs above expectation. And he's modeled himself into a top pair or second pairing guy all season long. I mean, he has been really good for Canada.

Starting point is 00:26:30 he was obviously really good for the penguins with Eric Carlson. And I'm curious to see what the organization thinks about him at the midway point of next season. Do they view him as someone they want to keep around for a little while? Or is it someone they think they can get a haul for? Because he's on such an affordable deal and has played so well for the penguins that you could maybe get quite a lot for him. from a team that thinks that they're going to win the Stanley Cup next year. So he has really become one of the more under the radar intriguing players for me

Starting point is 00:27:10 around the Penguins organization. Yeah, it kind of, it's almost like Brazil a little bit, Pat, where you kind of have to see where the team is around the deadline. For example, if they're out of the playoff picture around the trade deadline next year, you easily, I think, flip him and get something in return, whether it's a draft pick and a prospect or just a prospect coming back, or even just a draft pick coming back, maybe a younger player coming back in some capacity, some like that.

Starting point is 00:27:36 Otherwise, if you're in the race, you could potentially keep him look to maybe a short-term extension, considering Pat, that he's still pretty young overall. I mean, he's still only 28, so you don't need to give him a ton of term on an extension. But if you wanted to think about it at that time, maybe a one to two-year extension takes him into his early 30s. Again, I'm just fitballing, but I do agree what they do with him during next season, closer to the deadline, I am really fascinated to see. So he's going to do his last year of his contract, had a great year, having great world championships, and I want him to carry that momentum into next season where he's probably going to be on the top pair again next to Eric Carlson. At least that's the way it stands right now, unless the Penguins go out to get a true bona fide top pair guy to play on the left side with Eric.

Starting point is 00:28:29 But that's going to do it for the Wednesday edition of the Lockdown Penguins podcast. Thank you all so much for taking the time to listen to slash watch this one. Pat and I will be back with a fresh episode for you all on Thursday, continuing our season and review series, and then going to talk about Wilkesbury and Willings since they both have games tonight. But for Patrick Am, I am Hunter Hodes. Thank you all so much taking the time to listen to slash watch this one.

Starting point is 00:28:53 We'll be back on Thursday.

Locked On Penguins - Daily Podcast On The Pittsburgh Penguins - Penguins will need more consistency from Justin Brazeau

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